CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY

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CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4
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S
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January 25, 2005
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1
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May 17, 1956
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SUMMARY
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P x CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE State Department review completed Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 Ne- (CURRENT INTELLIGENCE COPY NO. 17 OCI NO. 3258/56 17 May 1956 WEEKLY C!'ci r'eii 'o. -- ------------- F'o Ch2.:{e In ":ass. ^ ^ SUMMARY TS S / Ir t e: --V--------- Aath.: H3 70-3 D ate: - _ 1-- By: ---------- Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 CONFIDENTIAL p 25X1 ?25X1 Approved For RcJ ase 2005/02/10 i CI:A=RDP79-00927A Q00, 800100001-4 THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECT- ING THE NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18, USC, SECTIONS 793 AND 794, THE TRANSMIS- SION OR REVELATION OF WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW. The Current Intelligence Weekly Summary has been prepared primarily for the internal use of the Central Intelligence Agency. It does not represent a complete coverage of all current situations. Comments and conclusions represent the immediate appraisal of the Office of Current Intelligence. Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 11011 -P Approved FoJelease 200 RDP79-0092.000800100001-4 CONFIDENTIAL CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 T H E W E E K I N B R I E F REDUCTION IN SOVIET FORCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 1 The USSR announced on 14 May that a 1,200,000-man cut would be made in its armed forces by May 1957. This move reflects a belief that general war is unlikely in the immediate future and is evidence that Soviet military re- quirements are being readjusted for the nuclear age. It also is a major step in the effort by Moscow to convince the NATO countries that they can safely reduce their de- 25X1 Tense forces. 25X1 SOVIET-JAPANESE AGREEMENTS . Page 3 The three agreements reached during the Japanese- Soviet fishery talks in Moscow increase the likelihood that normal diplomatic relations between the two countries will be resumed in the near future. Two of the agree- ments are conditional on restoration of diplomatic re- lations. The majority of the Liberal-Democratic Party in Japan appear to be swinging behind the Hatoyama group's move for an early peace settlement with the USSR. CHINESE COMMUNIST ACTIVITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4 Egypt's decision, announced on 16 May, to recognize Communist China follows more than a year of diplomatic, commercial, and cultural efforts on the part of the Chinese Communists to establish official relations with Middle Eastern governments. In recent weeks, Peiping has quickened the pace of this campaign, dispatching missions to the Sudan and Ethiopia, as well as Egypt; all of these have been well received. ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 5 cations of Western and Soviet intentions. states over the past week. Both sides are awaiting developments in the United Nations and further indi- Minor clashes continued between Israel and the Arab i Approved For Release 2005/02/10: CIA-RDP7 THE WEEK IN BRIEF 9 4 25X1 25X1 Approved For elease 20Q5ECR-E*W-RDP79-009- 000800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 SOUTH KOREAN ELECTION . . . . South Korea's presidential election has been high- lighted by a considerable show of opposition strength. Tension is rising, and rioting may occur if government in the M yon frauds bring about the defeat of Chang hotly-contested viceapresidential race. PART:II NOTES AND COMMENTS SING-SOVIET BLOC ACCELERATES DRIVE TO WIN INDONESIA . . . . . . . . During the last two months, the Sino-Soviet bloc has launched a co-ordinated effort to develop a political and economic relationship with Indonesia similar to that with India and Burma. All Indonesian political parties are prepared to accept closer relations with the Sino-Soviet bloc. FRENCH NORTH AFRICA . . . . . . . . ? . . ' . . . The internal security situation throughout French North Africa remains operations have accelerated, and in Morocco, lawlessness and tension continue to mount. Page 6 Page 1 Page PRESSURE FOR CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM IN FRANCE . . . . . . . . . . . Growing apprehension in France over the Algerian situation is increasing pressure for a major revision of the governmental system to provide for a stronger executive authority. General de Gaulle's renewed interest in political matters has revived speculation overAhise possible role in such a revision; but barring a r blow--such as the loss of Algeria--reform is unlikely. FUTURE OF THE AUSTRIAN COALITION . . . . . . . . . As a result of the Austrian elections, the conserv- ative People's Party and moderate Socialists which have governed ptofntherpathe last 11 rliamentaryyseatsnthanothey a larger r percentage SECRET ii Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 THE WEEK IN BRIEF Page Page 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Tease 2005/02ICl"P79-009274,p0800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 have at any time since 1949. The greater gains made by the People's Party, coming within one seat of an absolute majority, may make the conservatives less ready to com- promise with the Socialists and may complicate recon- stitution of the coalition. EAST GERMAN RESTRICTIONS ON WEST BERLIN BARGE TRAFFIC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 6 East Germany is refusing to renew licenses for barges traveling between West Germany and West Berlin. As the licenses gradually expire, Bonn will have to transfer freight to trains and trucks or enter the ministerial-level talks desired by the East Germans. FURTHER RELAXATION OF CONTROLS IN THE SATELLITES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page New steps to eliminate or revise some of the more objectionable aspects of Communist control have recently been taken by a number of the Satellites. These steps have included the pardoning of a Hungarian archbishop, the removal of border obstacles on the Austrian-Hungarian border, and a reduction in. the strength of Rumanian security forces. 25X1 USSR EASES WORKING CONDITIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 8 The Soviet government has recently issued a series of decrees intended to ease working conditions and to rescind more of the coercive measures associated with the Stalin era. Outstanding among these measures are a proposal for a new, more generous pension law and a decree rescinding two of the most onerous wartime regulations for labor discipline. 25X1 NEW SOVIET INSTITUTE FOUNDED TO STUDY WORLD ECONOMICS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 10 Deputy Premier Mikoyan's complaint at the 20th Party Congress about the lack of realism in Soviet studies on capitalism has prodded the Soviet Academy of Science into forming an institute to study contemporary world economics. This move may result in a more accurate appraisafof the economic strengths and weaknesses of the non-Communist world. 25X1 SECRET iii Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 THE WEEK IN BRIEF Approved For lease 2005/0 %ICB"P79-0092740800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 COMMUNIST CHINA REORGANIZES ECONOMIC MINISTRIES . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 11 The reorganization of Communist China's economic ministries announced by Peiping on 12 May reflects the growth of the economy and the increasing degree to which China's government structure follows the Soviet pattern. No top leaders have been demoted, and there is no suggestion of any change in the main lines of Chinese Communist policy. THAILAND RE-EXAMINING TRADE POLICIES . . . . . . . Page 12 Thai leaders are apparently considering relaxing their strict controls on trade with Communist countries. Such a relaxation may be followed by a general modification of Thailand's anti-Communist orientation. THE FOURTH CONGRESS OF THE INDIAN COMMUNIST PARTY . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 13 . The Indian Communist Party, meeting in.a pre election.year, attempted at its Fourth Congress to achieve a semblance of party unity, but failed to over- come long-standing factionalism. Its election tactics will apparently concentrate on infiltrating the Congress Party and developing a united-front movement on specific issues. ICELANDIC ELECTION DOMINATED BY AIR BASE ISSUE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 14 Iceland's parliamentary election campaign has focused on the NATO base at Keflavik. The Conservatives, the most moderate of the parties on the issue, appear to be making an impact on the public, but no group is expected to obtain a majority of the 52 parliamentary seats at stake. Whatever the outcome of the election on 24 June, the'next government is certain to seek some changes in the agreement affecting the base. SECRET iv Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 THE WEEK IN BRIEF 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For F ase 2005/02Si ? P79-00927AQD800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES THE PROTEST IN THE POLISH COMMUNIST PARTY . . . . . . . Page 1 The Polish regime, faced with intraparty factionalism and mounting public disregard for official efforts to limit criticism, has reached the point where it must decide whether to continue its internal policies inaugu- rated since the denigration of Stalin or resume the more rigid policies of the past. Either alternative will raise new problems for the already harassed Polish Communist leaders. LOCAL ELECTIONS IN ITALY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 3 The first major test of Italian political trends since mid-1953. will occur in the nationwide elections of provincial and communal councils on 27 and 28 May. The Christian Democrats and the Nenni Socialists expect to gain. The results may cast light on the possibility of a national working alliance between these two at the expense of the Communist-Socialist unity pact. The Christian Democrats' prospects will depend in part on their convincing the electorate of their intention to carry out reforms such as the 10-year development pro- gram of the late budget minister Vanoni. 25X1 LEGAL AND JUDICIAL REFORM IN THE USSR . . . . . . . Page. 10 Since Stalin's death, the Soviet leadership has been moving cautiously toward legal and judicial reform. Some of the more onerous restrictions imposed on the individual during the Stalin era have been removed, and the judicial powers of the police and military tribunals--including the special tribunals used in the Great Purge trials of the Thirties--have been curtailed. Measures have also been taken to standardize and streamline the cumbersome system of administering justice. Despite these moves, the primary function of the law in the Soviet Union clearly remains unchanged--to promote the aims of the Communist state rather than to ensure justice for the individual. SECRET v Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 THE WEEK IN BRIEF 25X6 Approved For Release 20058DP79-00927A000800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 SECRET vi Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 THE WEEK IN BRIEF Approved For Ralease 2005/02/'Ln - 1 79-00927A&00800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 OF IMMEDIATE INTEREST REDUCTION IN SOVIET FORCES The USSR announced on 14 May that a 1,200,000-man cut would be made in its armed forces by May 1957. This move reflects a belief that general war is unlikely in the immediate future and is evidence that So- viet military requirements are being readjusted for the nuclear age. The Soviet leaders have recently expressed pessimism about the prospects for a for- mal disarmament agreement and, for the present, will attempt to exploit the favorable opinion deriving from their unilateral action in an effort to induce the NATO nations to follow the USSR's initiative. Not only does this suit Soviet strategic interests, but it fits in with the Soviet economists' claim that the Western nations are staving off an approaching "eco- nomic crisis" only by "militari- zation of the economy and the arms race." The announcement was phrased cryptically as to the precise cuts envisioned, but it indi- cates that 63 divisions and in- dependent brigades, including three air divisions, would be demobilized and 375 warships would be put into reserve. The manpower cuts include over 30,- 000 men from units stationed in East Germany. The new reductions would be in addition to the strength cut of 640,000 announced in August 1955. STRENGTH OF USSR ARMED FORCES (ARMY, NAVY, AND AIR, EXCLUDING SECURITY FORCES) WORLD WAR II PEAK 12,500,000 PRESENT TOTAL 11,008,000 25X1 6,800,000 RESERVE 4,208,0 ACTIVE -1,200 1957 000 SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 PART I OF IMMEDIATE INTEREST Paze 1 of 6 1955 REDUCTION -640,000 BY MA' Approved For Release 2005/02/19&n1 9-00927A90800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 Effect of Cuts The two cuts would cause a drop of about 43 percent in So- viet armed forces personnel, which are believed to have to- taled 4,208,000 before July 1955, exclusive of security forces. The Soviet army has an estimated 175 line, 20 artillery and 70 antiaircraft divisions, and 95 independent'brigades. To minimize the effect of such a strength cut, the So- viet Union could transfer sup- port troops to civilian status without changing their functions as well as expand military training for civilians. The USSR will also retain its capability for rapid mobiliza- tion of its trained military manpower, which, assuming the reductions, will include some 8,000,000 men. The Soviet announcement does not make clear whether the cut of three air divisions per- tains to units located in the Soviet Union or in East Ger- many. Judging from the number of identified regiments, So- viet air forces have an equiva- lent of some 158 divisions. The 24th Air Army in East Ger- many has the equivalent of 12 divisions. The USSR is credited with 251 major surface vessels, 421 submarines, and over 2,300 minor vessels, such as patrol, mine and amphibious craft.. Approximately 110 warships are old or inactive cruisers, de- stroyers, submarines, and battleships, which would be likely candidates for reserve status. Since 183 new long- range submarines are'the So- viet navy's most significant offensive threat, active sur- face vessel strength could be cut considerably without sub- stantially reducing the Soviet navy's striking power. Possible Budget Cut In terms of military ex- penditures, the announced cut of 1,200,000 would permit a reduction in the military budg- et of some 19 billion rubles, almost 20 percent--a sum which would otherwise be spent on personnel, maintenance and operating costs. The military budget cut forecast in the So- viet announcement of the man- power cut will probably be of about this size, since state- ments made by Gromyko at the London disarmament talks and the budget reduction following the 640,000-man demobilization imply that the Soviet leaders intend to maintain the planned rate of expenditures for mili- tary equipment. Assuming such a reduction, the funds remaining in the budg- et, about 84 billion rubles, would permit an increase of some 30 percent over 1955 in expendi- ture per man remaining in service, and the rate of procurement per man by 1957 would have increased by two thirds over 1955. The USSR thus would have adjusted its military spending to the increased cost of modern weapons systems. In terms of the over-all Soviet economy, the announced force reduction will facili- tate overfulfillment of the Sixth Five-year Plan industrial targets, primarily by releasing additional funds for investments and by allowing a greater in- crease in the labor force than planned. (Pre- 25X1 pared jointly with ORR) SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 PART' I O'.-IMMEDIATE INTEREST Page 2 of 6 Approved For Ralease 2005/02/19 &W! 9-00927A&90800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SU 17 May 1956 SOVIET-JAPANESE AGREEMENTS The results of the Soviet- Japanese fishery talks in Mos- cow increase the likelihood that normal diplomatic relations be- tween the two countries will be restored in the near future. Japanese chief negotiator Ichiro Kono left Moscow on 15 May with a provisional one- year fishing agreement, a ten- year fishing pact, and a three- year sea rescue pact. The long- term pacts are not effective until diplomatic relations are restored, and the provisional agreement is contingent on the reopening' of the stalled peace treaty talks prior to the end of July. By originally announcing extremely harsh restrictions on North Pacific fishing, Mos- cow was able to make "conces- sions" on the provisional agree- ment. Thus the USSR agreed to raise total fishing quotas from 55,000 to 65,000 tons this year,, although Japan alone had originally planned to catch 80,- 000 tons of fish. Anticipating trouble on his return to Tokyo, Kono predicted that fishing circles in Japan would express considerable dissatisfaction with the terms of the agreement. Soviet Negotiating Tactics The USSR was apparently careful throughout the talks to temper the force behind its commanding position. In addi- tion to flattering Kono, the USSR played on the emotional Japanese attitude toward the repatriation issue by volun- teering to send home 29 war prisoners, including the com- mander of the Manchurian army. However, the talks apparently had little effect on the other outstanding issue--sovereignty over the southern Kurils, on which the London treaty talks broke down in March. Bulganin reportedly restated to Kono the Soviet territorial claims. Chief delegate Kono, one of the leading powers in the government and a member of the Hatoyama group favoring early resumption of relations, was outspoken in his praise of the USSR during his time in Moscow. The success of the talks he credited to the "understanding attitude of the Soviet side," and he found Marshal Bulganin a "first-class statesman," Japanese Reaction The first reports that Kona had reached an agreement with the USSR created an atmosphere of relief in Tokyo that a way out of the present impasse in the peace treaty negotiations had been found. Later some realization of the extent of Kono's concessions served to temper the bandwagon mood, but a majority.of the governing Liberal-Democratic Party appear to be swinging behind the move for an early conclusion of a peace settlement with the USSR. Factions in the Liberal- Democratic Party, however, have already voiced their dis- pleasure, and they undoubtedly will do their utmost to deflate any effort by Kono to present his achievement as a diplomatic triumph. It is unlikely that they will go so far as to split the party in opposing ratifica- tion of the".fishery pacts. SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 OF IMMEDIATE INTEREST Page 3 of 6 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/02/ ECjQ- 1,79-00927AQp0800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 Kono is now en route home via the United States and ap- parently plans to seek Washing- ton's "understanding" concern- ing the settlement at Moscow. CHINESE COMMUNIST ACTIVITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST The Egyptian decision to recognize Communist China, an- nounced by Cairo after a cabi- net meeting on 16 May, follows more than a year of diplomatic effort by Peiping to establish official contacts with Middle Eastern governments. The Egyp- tian move may well encourage other Middle East states to ex- tend recognition to Peiping. Since March, the Chinese Com- munists have stepped up their trade and culture campaign in the Middle East. Egypt, called "head of the Arab states" in Peiping's propa- ganda, has been the focal point in Chinese Communist efforts in the Middle East. At Bandung last spring, Chou.En-lai worked to establish a close personal relationship with Egyptian premier Nasr. The following August, a three-year trade agree- ment between Peiping.and Cairo was signed which provided for the exchange of permanent com- mercial missions. The Chinese commercial mission in Cairo was granted diplomatic and cipher privileges. In November and December last year, agreements for the exchange of permanent commercial.missions were nego- tiated with Syria and Lebanon. Trade and Cultural Drive In March, Peiping stepped up its trade and culture drive in the Middle East. A trade Such understanding, by implying American approval., would greatly assist Kono in selling his mission as a success when he returns to Tokyo. delegation headed by Minister of Trade Yeh Chi-chuang arrived in Cairo on 17 March for a three-week visit. In April, the Chinese Communists opened a commodity exhibit in Cairo described by observers as "im- pressive." Concurrently, a 70-man cultural mission from Peiping toured major Egyptian cities, presenting music,.dramat- i.c,, and dance programs which received favorable reviews. From Cairo the trade dele- gation:went to Khartoum,,where the Chinese Communist foreign trade minister and Sudanese officials concluded negotiations with a joint communique, issued on 16 April, expressing agree- ment to "provisionally encourage commercial. representation," a phrase reflecting Peiping's hopes for a permanent commercial mission. The trade delegation was followed to Khartoum by the Communist cultural mission. Performances by this group were well received by Sudanese audi- ences. The Communist cultural delegation then visited Ethiopia. The American embassy in Addis Ababa reports that the first performance by. the group there was "impressive" and was "well slanted toward the Ethiopians." The leader of the cultural dele- gation was.reportedly granted, an audience by Emperor Haile Selassie on 3 May. Peiping radio SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 OF IMMEDIATE INTEREST Page 4 of 6 25X1 Approved For lease 2005/02/lp, SalfR479-00927A&00800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 has quoted the Ethiopian foreign minister as saying that "pres- ent cultural contacts are only the first steps toward the res- toration of many-sided contacts between China and Ethiopia." Chinese Nationalist Efforts Chinese Nationalist pres- tigees, never high in the Middle East, has been declining during the past six months despite ef- forts by Taipei to bolster its position. The Nationalists have sent a trade delegation to the Middle East and within re- cent weeks have attempted, without success, to establish diplomatic relations with the newly independent Sudan. Until now, the Arab states have been chary of switching recognition from Taipei to THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION Minor clashes continued between Israel and the Arab states over the past week, Both sides are awaiting develop- ments in the United Nations. The inci4ents--in the Gaza strip, on Jd+rdan's border, and at Lake Tiberias--were used by each side to blame the other for "breaking the cease-fire" in order to influence the UN Security Council and "world opinion." Initial attempts of UN truce supervisor General Burns to implement the agree- ments on an increase of UN ob- servers, mobile patrols, and the establishment of observa- tion posts were not fruitful. Peiping in view of the Nation- alist position in the UN. As recently represented by the president of Lebanon, the Arab position. has been that recognition of Peiping would have to be withheld as long as the Nationalists hold a seat on the Security Council, "which deals with the problem of Israel." Cairo's decision may, however, start a movement for recognition of Peiping by other Middle East states which have close relations with Egypt. Syria is the most likely country to follow Egypt's lead in the immediate future, and in- creased pressure for recogni- tion of the Chinese Communists is likely to develop in Lebanon. Some Sudanese leaders are also reported favoring such a move. Apparently in order to present a "united Arab front" for possible Security Council discussions on the Middle East, the foreign ministers of Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan re- portedly plan to meet this week to discuss the Palestine problem And Secretary General Hammarskjold's report to the United Nations. Israeli foreign minister Sharett has indicated that Israeli plans to divert the Jordan River waters at Banat Yacov are temporarily in abey- ance. On the Arab side, Lebanon, in an effort to re- move the Banat Yacov issue as 25X1 SECRET PART I Approved For Release 2005 IA- P 00927A000800100001-4 o ffi&- TE IN~Z REST Page 5 of 6 Approved Foc elease 2005/02/191 j T9-009274000800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 a source of hostilities, is re- portedly trying to gain Arab acceptance of a Lebanese plan whereby each side would work on its own separate water de- velopment projects. Though there is some evi- dence of a partial demobiliza- tion in Israel, major units there and in the Arab states remain at or near full strength, and each side continues to seek and obtain additional military equipment. Jordan, following its military planning talks with Egypt, increasingly shows signs of closer co-operation with the Egyptian-Syrian-Saudi Arabian bloc. King Hussain stated that Jordan would probably re- ceive two squadrons of jet air- craft, an "appreciable amount, of artillery, and some tanks 25X1 from Egypt." Egypt can supply materiel of Western or Soviet bloc origin. SOUTH KOREAN ELECTION South Korea's presiden- tial election has been charac- terized by a considerable show of opposition to the Rhee admin- istration. Virtually complete official returns give President Rhee about 55 percent of the presidential vote, with the remainder divided between leftist Cho Pong-.am and invalid ballots cast for the late Sin Ik-hui. In 1952, Rhee received 75 percent of the total vote. In the closely contested vice-presidential race, Demo- crat Chang Myon appeared headed for a narrow victory over President R,hee's'running mate, Yi Ki-pung, and it seemed unlikely that Yi could overtake Chang without the perpetration of large-scale frauds. The action of the government's Cen- tral Election Committee in ceasing to issue returns on 17 May lent credibility to wide- spread rumors that the voting will be fixed in order to give victory to Yi Ki-pung. 25X1 The American embassy re- ports that tension is moun i in Seoul and other areas. In Taeju, 10,000 persons have already demonstrated against alleged government frauds. 25X1 SECRET Approved For Release 200o5/02/ CIA-qPP79 p~92ZA000800100001-4 PART I CAF IMMEDIATE INTEREST Page 6 of 6 Approved For lease 2005/09tefiiilPP79-00927 '00800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 NOTES AND COMMENTS SINO-SOVIET BLOC ACCELERATES DRIVE TO WIN INDONESIA During the last two months, the Sino-Soviet bloc has made Indonesia a principal target in its campaign to develop closer relations with non-Communist Asia. The moves appear to be a co-ordinated effort to develop a political and economic rela- tionship with Indonesia similar to that which already exists with India and Burma. In addi- tion, the bloc probably hopes to improve the position of the strong Indonesian Communist Par- ty, hoping that in time it will be accepted in the government. In April, the Soviet Union extended an offer of economic assistance and invitations to President Sukarno to visit Mos- cow and Peiping. Invitations to outspoken anti-Communists followed in May. Since the main theme of Indonesian anti- Communist propaganda has been Soviet and Chinese mistreatment of Moslem minorities, invita- tions from both China and the USSR to non-Communist Moslems may have particularly far-reach- ing implications. Ambassador Zhukov, in a press interview in early May, offered Soviet technical and edu- cational training facilities for Indonesian students and teachers, recommended stepped-up exchanges of cultural and sports groups, and cited Soviet willingness to co-operate in the peaceful uses of atomic energy. The USSR has also invited a special delegation of parliamentary leaders, the' minister of education, and a six-man industrial survey team, while the Chinese Communists have invited eight leading journalists and top officials of the chamber of commerce. Indonesian Reaction The Soviet economic assist- ance offer has been accepted "in principle" by the Indonesian government. Indonesia may be expected to spell out its eco- nomic interests within the next few months, with emphasis prob- ably being placed on agricul- ture and power projects. All Indonesian political parties are prepared to accept closer relations with the Sino- Soviet bloc as part of Indone- sia's independent foreign policy. Only a few individuals have warned against the possibility of covert activity as a by-prod- uct. Indonesia, however, will probably continue its effort to balance its foreign policy and, within the range of its economic needs, will try to arrange to receive most of its aid from the West. iut if Western terms do not appear satisfactory, and if the Sino-Soviet bloc tailors its assistance to Indonesia's needs as it has offered to do, Indone- sia will accept increasing amounts of bloc aid. Con- 25X1 curred in by ORR and OS SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 1 of 15 Approved F,g Release 2005 411f F RDP79-009i~7A000800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 FRENCH NORTH AFRICA The internal security sit- uation throughout French North Africa remains critical. In Algeria the guerrilla conflict has accelerated, and in Morocco lawlessness and tension con- tinue to mount. Algeria Since 6 May Algerian rebel bands--reportedly reinforced by elements from the Moroccan "Army of Liberation"--have carried on co-ordinated raids on isolated French and Moslem farms, small military outposts, and native villages in the Oran-Tlemcen region of western Algeria and the area north of Constantine in the east. The sharp fighting in these and other areas, including a village only 15 miles from R A N lemeen SPANISH SAHARA Algiers, culminated in the reported liquidation of at least 500 rebels by 11 May. There has been no reliable account of French casualties over the same period. Terrorist attacks in the city of Constantine have led the French to expect similar raids in Algiers and other large cities as part of the rebel effort to destroy French morale before the army reinforcements en route to North Africa can become ef - fective. FRENCH WEST AFRICA 25X1 25X1 SE(RET PART I i Approved For Release 2 NOTESI ANDACOMMENTS 27A000800100001 ge 2 of 15 Approved Fgelease 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-0092000800100001-4 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 Both Premier Mollet's of- fice in Paris and Minister Lacoste in Algiers believe that the increased French troop strength, which they maintain will reach 330,000 by the end of the month, should begin to make its weight felt by mid- June. French leaders are re- ported still hopeful that the military situation can be restored sufficiently this sum- mer to permit the implementa- tion by September of the ex- tensive reforms planned for Algeria. French settler ex- tremists are expected to resist many of the reforms, but Lacoste is reported determined to deal firmly with these ele- ments. Last week, he took vigorous action against Euro- pean university students whose demonstrations against pro- posed reforms to assure in- creased Moslem employment in the government and its enter- prises disrupted V-E Day ob- servances in the capital. In Morocco, crime and violence, the bulk of which is thought to be nonpolitical in character, has mounted in recent weeks as lawless Moroc- can elements have exploited the confusion accompanying the PRESSURE FOR CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM IN FRANCE Growing apprehension in France over the Algerian situa- tion is increasing-pressure for a major revision of the transition from French to Mo- roccan rule. Public order has deteriorated throughout the country, especially in the former Spanish zone, where the nationalist Istiglal party is not yet ready to assume the security role now virtually abandoned by Spain. Meanwhile, French-Moroccan tension has developed to the point where many Frenchmen in- sist that the atmosphere is worse than that which prevailed just prior to the massacre of French civilians at Oued Zem last August. French residents and officials are reported alarmed at the rapid acquisi- tion of power by the Moroccans, and French military forces are smarting under continued harass- ment by armed Moroccan bands. On the Moroccan side, both the irregular "Liberation Army" and the population in general are becoming increas- ingly restive over what Mo- roccans regard a' French pro- crastination in turning over power, especially in the field of foreign affairs. The probable early assign- ment of the sultan's new 15,000- man army to police duties throughout Morocco until a reg- ular constabulary can be formed may alleviate somewhat the grow- ing internal security crisis. The "Liberation Army," however, will continue to be a potential threat to the stability of the new regime until it is disband- ed or absorbed, preferably on an individual basis into the sultan's army. government system to provide for a stronger executive au- thority. General de Gaulle's renewed interest in political SECRET 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : AND RDPM7MENTS7A000800100001 page 3 of 15 PART II Approved Fo eIease 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927 00800100001-4 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 matters has revived speculation over his possible role in such a revision; but barring a seri- ous low--such as the loss of Algeria--reform is unlikely. The present constitution, adopted in 1946, was admittedly a compromise, and opposition to it crystallized almost immedi- ately under De Gaulle. Only minor revisions have been pos- sible, however, because the National Assembly has final ex- ecutive and legislative author- ity, and the deputies are loath to relinquish any prerogatives. Nevertheless the present impasse in Algeria. has markedly in- creased public disillusionment with the governmental structure and has given greater urgency to the desire for drastic re- vision. The January 1956 elections strengthened the forces in the National Assembly opposed to parliamentary government and emphasized the sharp divisions among the center parties. As a result, support began to grow more rapidly for a balance be- tween the executive and legis- lative branches. Former pre- .iiers Antoine Pinay and Edgar ?sure and Popular Republican leader Pierre-Henri Teitgen have recently espoused such a proposal. A special Study Com- mittee for the Republic, founded by Foreign Minister Pineau and including many political, eco- nomic and labor leaders, has just published a report favoring direct election of a president with real executive powers. A "Strong Man" In the meanwhile, the grow- ing belief that Algeria may be lost to France is focusing greater attention on the pos- sibility of a "strong man" suc- ceeding Mollet. General de Gaulle has re- cently regained his health and with it his interest in the national political scene. His well-known preference for a strong executive and his na- tional prestige enhance his appeal, even to many Socialist and Radical Socialist leaders who had previously feared his authoritarian tendencies. De Gaulle, however, disclaims any "personal interest" in remedy- ing the present "incoherent situation," and would probably accept office only in the un- likely event of a request by the National Assembly and on the understanding that a new constitution would be drafted before the expiration of the present legislature. Many rightists would pre- fer as premier the ex-Gaullist Jacques Soustelle, former gov- ernor general of Algeria. Soustelle is regarded as more flexible than De Gaulle and his recent campaign for full integration of Algeria with France has made him more ac- ceptable to the right. The hardening Communist attitude on the government's Algerian policy may now expose Mollet to sharper attacks in the National Assembly from cen- ter and rightist groups which have refrained heretofore in order not to force Mollet to rely on Communist votes. Mollet's overthrow in the pres- ent. situation would in itself be a serious blow to parliamen- tary authority, but the real threat to the regime may still be from outside the parliament. A symptom of this threat is a plan approved by the national congress of the Poujadist anti- tax movement. Under this plan, the Poujadist organization would itself convene a States General with the avowed purpose of re- lacing the National Assembly. 25X1 SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 4 of 15 Approved For Qplease 2005103LC P79-00927ADO0800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 FUTURE OF THE AUSTRIAN COALITION The conservative People's Party and the moderate Social- ists which have governed Austria as a coalition for 11 years now control a larger percentage of the popular and parliamentary vote than at any time since 1949. The gains made by the two coalition parties are almost entirely attributable to the losses suffered by the extrem- ists on the left and the right. The People's Party, by captur- ing eight of the nine seats lost by the extreme rightists, emerged from a long period of gradual decline to come with- in one seat of a parliamentary major- ity, which materially enhances its position at the expense of the Socialists. Coalition Difficulties This relatively minor shift may com- plicate the process of forming a new govern- ment, especially be- cause relations be- tween the two parties was the major unspo- ken issue in the cam- paign. The elections were provoked, in fact, by the Social- ists, primarily with the idea of "proving" that the People's Party could not govern alone. The conservatives' gains are also likely to delay agree- ment on the issues on which the campaign was more openly waged--such as control of the Austrian defense establishment, the management of the national- ized industries, and the dispo- sition of former German assets. Tentative understandings were reached within the coalition on most of these issues long ago. They were unpopular with elements of both parties, how- ever, and implicitly depended on the maintenance of a balance of power between the parties. How long it will now take to negotiate new agreements and hence a new government will largely depend on how the two parties interpret their new positions. A deadlock will quickly develop if the Social- ists refuse to go slow on AUSTRIAN NATION ALRAT LOWER HOUSE VOTES-1953 ELECTIONS reurtes rwait ~ SOCIALIST PARTY LIBERAL PARTY- - was (Union of Independents) 4!;,022 LIBERAL PARTY- -was (Union of Independents) 28,7i3(-32.4) further nationalization or the People's Party attempts some denationalization. People's Party extremists might then insist that the party seek a coalition partner in the extreme rightist Liberal (or Freedom) Party, and a new and difficult phase in Austrian domestic politics might well ensue. -SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 5 of 15 Approved FG4Release 2005/Q? Q.Y yDP79-0092L4A000800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 Whether Chancellor Raab will try to resist the extrem- ists in his People's Party is uncertain, but his leadership in any case now seems unques- tioned. While there are no major differences between the coalition parties on foreign policy, the chancellor has seemed more anxious than the Socialists to avoid giving of- fense to the USSR; he was cool to the idea of Austrian admis- sion to the Council of Europe, and he seemed relatively blind to the wider implications of the abortive Soviet loan to the province of Lower Austria. EAST GERMAN RESTRICTIONS ON WEST BERLIN BARGE TRAFFIC East Germany is refusing to renew licenses for barges traveling between West Germany and West Berlin. As the licenses gradually expire, Bonn will have to transfer freight to trains an.'l trucks or enter the These attitudes--probably less subject to restraint now than before--could cause difficulties for the West in the future. So far as the Communists are locally concerned, their future even in a nuisance role in the Austrian parliament seems dark. For the first time in the postwar period their total vote fell below 5 percent. They re- tained parliamentary representa- tion by gaining a single "basic mandate" in one district of Vienna--probably by transferring temporary residents to that area. Thus they were able to claim three seats under proportional representation. ministerial-level talks desired by the East Germans. Ambassador Conant in Bonn reported on 10 May that no new permits for Berlin barge traffic had been countersigned BONN GOVERNMENT FACES PROBLEM OF REDUCED BARGE TRAFFIC 25X1 SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 6 of 15 Approved For lease 2005/02gV$,pp79-009271?0800100001-4 17 May 1956 by East German authorities since August 1955, and that the East German Transport Ministry on 27 April had returned 70 West German permit applications because it had never received any communication on this sub- ject from the Bonn Transport Ministry. In 1955, barges using the Mittelland and Elbe canal sys- tems carried about one quarter of the supplies for West Berlin. Refusal to renew permits is part of the East German program of harassing Berlin's lifelines to bring about ministerial-level conversations between East and West Germany as a step toward forcing Bonn's recognition of the East German government. In meetings earlier this year of representatives of the Bonn government and the West- ern allies, it was decided to keep the negotiations on interzonal barge traffic at a low administrative level, with no direct role being played by the Bonn Transport Ministry. It was agreed, however, that if the East Germans objected to this arrangement, "low-level ministerial contacts" between the two transport ministries would be acceptable. So far, however, Bonn has given no evidence that it plans any contacts with the East German Transport Ministry. FURTHER RELAXATION OF CONTROLS IN THE SATELLITES New steps to eliminate or revise some of the more ob- jectionable aspects of Com- munist control have recently been taken by a number of the Satellites. While some of the actions support the Soviet bloc campaign to reduce international tensions, they also appear de- signed to provide more substan- tial proof to the Satellite peoples that the regimes are SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 7 of _15 Rather, with the permits of some 300 barges in the Berlin service approaching expiration, the most likely West German response will be to shift the freight to trains and possibly trucks. Though such a change in freight transit practice would mean some increase in costs to West Germany and Western Berlin, the economic consequences would, not appear to be serious. Barges carried 1,650,000 metric tons of cargo to Berlin in 1955. All but 300,000 tons could have been handled at somewhat greater expense by unused rail and truck capacity, according to West German trucking experts and the Bonn Transport Ministry. Bonn may encourage the addition of enough trucks to the Berlin fleet to carry that quantity. There is some question as to whether the East German authorities will allow West German barge traffic to "wither away" to nothing through the expiration of permits. They may fear retaliation on the East German barges that regularly use the Elbe canal route to Hamburg. The East Germans may find some reason to permit a reduced level of Western traffic if Bonn imposes or threatens to impose limitations on East Germany's East-West trade channels. 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/02/15 'ClIff 9-00927A000800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 abandoning their harsh Stalinist Policies. Hungary pardoned Arch- bishop Groesz on 11 May and reappointed him to his former post of chairman of the Bench of Bishops. This action may be interpreted by the Hungar- ian ?eople as the forerunner of an improvement in church- state relations. Groesz, who was sentenced to life imprisonment in 1951 for conspiracy against the state, is a church leader who opposed the regime and survived. Despite his initial statement of support for the regime on 12 May, his return may have a significant effect on, the Hungar- ian people. One probable result will be outspoken de- mands both within and outside Hungary for the release of USSR EASES WORKING CONDITIONS The Soviet government has recently issued a series of decrees intended to ease work- ing conditions and to rescind some more of the coercive meas- ures associated with the Stalin era. Outstanding among these measures are a. proposal for a new, more generous pension law and a decree rescinding two of the most onerous wartime reg- ulations on labor discipline. Cardinal Mindszenty, who is still regarded by the Vatican as the primate of Hungary. Hungary is also removing mines and barbed wire along its frontiers with Austria and Yugoslavia., following an an- nouncement to this effect on 8 May. While the removal of the physical barriers is a symbolically significant move, the regime's 18,000-man frontier guard will probably be able to maintain control along the borders. In Rumania, approximately 12,000 civil and security po- lice have reportedly been dis- charged recently, a move which will reduce one of the more ob- vious pressures on the popula- tion. This would reduce Ru- mania.'s police forces by a - 25X1 proximately 10 percent. These decrees follow three earlier moves designed to show the solicitude of the regime for. the worker--in- cluding one cutting the work- week to 46 hours, one increas- ing maternity leave for work- ing mothers, and one ordering radical improvement of restau- rants, factory canteens and other public eating places. SECRET' Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 8 of 15 Approved For,&Iease 2005/0 + E ff79-00927-}00800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 In addition, according to a recent report, within the next 18 months the Soviet government will cease using prison labor for outside proj- ects and will abandon the practice of deporting Soviet citizens to distant sections of the country. A special com- mission is reported to have been set up and instructed to review the sentences of persons convicted of political, counter- revolutionary, and antistate crimes. It is to finish its work and rehabilitate innocent persons by next October. Such a move would be consistent with other steps already taken to popularize the regime. One of the new acts, the proposed law on state pensions published on 9 May, is a major revision of Soviet social legis- lation.. By bringing pensions more in line with wages and in- creasing considerably pension payments to the lower-paid cat- egories of workers, it marks an important concession to a broad segment of the population. Popular reaction in Moscow to the proposal is already re- ported to be highly favorable. Under the old system, old- age pensions were in fact lim- ited, for the most part, to 300 rubles a month. According to the new draft, the minimum will be 300 rubles and the max- imum 1,200 rubles a month. Similar increases will be made in disability pensions and pen- sions to surviving members of a worker's family, which here- tofore have also been limited close to the 300-ruble mark. The rates of "unjustly" high pensions may in certain cases also be reduced somewhat, as called for by Khrushchev at the 20th Party Congress. Worker Controls Another decree, published on 8 May, abolished all legal sanctions against workers for quitting their jobs vAthout authorization or being absent from their work without justi- fication. Persons sentenced on these counts under the old wartime laws are to be freed and all pending cases are to be dropped. In the future, labor problems of this type will be attacked by means of new eco- nomic and social pressures on the worker. In practice, criminal penalties for these offenses were invoked with ever- decreasing frequency after 1946, and much of the old law was negated by an unpublished decree of July 1951. Nevertheless, the public annulment of the decrees is another repudiation of Stalinist techniques. by ORR) (Concurred in SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 9 of 15 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/0') 1-4-0- pP79-00927?8,5,300800100001-4 SLTCA CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 NEW SOVIET INSTITUTE FOUNDED TO STUDY WORLD ECONOMICS Pravda announced on 24 April`t-Fa-Fathe USSR Academy of Sciences has established an "Institute of World Economics and International Relations." The institute is to study the "laws underlying the development of contemporary capitalism, the economics and politics of in- dividual countries, the mutual relations of the two world economic systems, capitalist and socialist, questions con- nected with the new role of the countries of Asia in world economics and politics, and other topics." The institute will publish a monthly journal, Worla Economics and Interna- t onal Relations . The USSR Academy of Sci- ences had decided last August to set up a special institute for the study of modern cap- italism, but this decision was apparently not implemented un- til recently, after the prodding by A. I. Mikoyan at the 20th Party Congress in February. Mikoyan then charged that the Academy's existing Institute of Economics did not and could not "cope with a serious study of the economy in the countries of socialism and the countries of capitalism," and he deplored the liquidation of the old Institute of World Economy and World Politics. The Institute of World Economy and World Politics had been formed in 1925. Soviet economist Eugene Varga served as its head from 1927 until 1947, when he was removed and the institute absorbed by the Institute of Economics, headed by K. V. Ostrovityanov. Ostrovitaynov had earlier in 1947 led an attack against Varga, accusing him of bourgeois re- formism and lack of realism be- cause his book Changes in the Economy of Captia ism as a Result a e Second World War imp e a basic changes in the governments and social systems of Western countries had made the total collapse of world capitalism unlikely for the indefinite future. Formation of the new in- stitute does not appear to represent a political victory for Varga vis-a-vis Ostrovit- yanov. Ostrovityanov was re- elected a candidate member of the Communist Party's central committee in February, whereas Varga has yet to attain such a high party position. A reason behind the creation of the new institute was put forth by Mikoyan in a discussion with Ambassador Bohlen in August 1955. Be admitted that in cer- tain countries, particularly the United States, capitalism was not in reality what it had been in the days of Karl Marx. Miko- yan further stated that the So- viet Union had been mistaken in the pa: :;t in not studying the contemporary United States more seriously, but hoped to rectify that mistake in the future. Soviet analysis of capital- ist economies will remain, of course, within the conventional Marxist-Leninist framework, but, through this institute, will now be encouraged to strive for a more realistic and sensible ap- praisal of the economic strengths and weaknesses of non-Communist states. 25X1 SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 10 of 15 Approved For,&lease 2005/O? &W P79-0092WO0800100001-4 17 May 1956 COMMUNIST CHINA REORGANIZES ECONOMIC MINISTRIES The reorganization of Communist China's economic min- istries announced by Peiping on 12 May reflects the growth of the economy and the increas- ing Soviet cast being given much of China's government struc- ture. No top leaders have been demoted, and there is no sugges- tion of any change in the main lines of Chinese Communist pol- icy. 0 facilitate co-ordination be- tween the two governments. In accordance with recent Soviet practice of breaking up major ministries to create new ones with more specialized fields of responsibility, China has formed three new ministries out of its old Ministry of Heavy Industry. In addition, it has set up a: new Ministry of HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT OF SELECTED ECONOMIC MINISTRIES IN COMMUNIST CHINA 1952 1953 .1954 1955 ? Min. of Heavy Industry ? Min. of Heavy Industry ? 1st Min. of Machine Building ? 2nd Min. of Machine Building ? Min, of Metallurgical Industry ? Min. of Chemical Industry ? Min. of Building Materials Ind. ? 3rd Min. of Machine Building (Abolished) *Min. of Petroleum Industry ?Min. of Electrical Power Industry ? Min. of Land Reclamation ? Min. of Procurement of Agricultural Products ? Min. of Textile Industry ? Min. of Forestry and Land Reclamation China now has placed re- sponsibility for national eco- nomic planning, construction, and technological development under four economic commissions and committees. This structure, which parallels the Soviet mod- el established during the past year, may have been set up to ? Min. of Timber Industry ? Min.of City Construction ? Min. of City Services ? National Economic Commission ? National Technological Commission Power Equipment Industry and three other ministries to con- trol the timber, food, and marine products industries. There are now 14 industrial min- istries, as compared with four in 1951. There are 29 in the USSR. SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 11 of :15 Approved Fore0ease 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-009274A0800100001-4 SECRET 17 May 1956 These changes in agencies controlling China's industriali- zation are designed to provide better administration over this rapidly expanding segment of the Chinese economy. Further subdivision of ministries may be expected as other sectors of the economy are developed un- der the Five-Year Plan. Peiping has also abolished the Ministries of Local Indus- try and Third Machine Building, which were established in Sep- tember 1954 and April 1955, re- spectively, to administer govern- ment plants at the local level and joint state-private enter- prises. These ministries pre- sumably served their usefulness during the recent drive for so- cialization, and the enterprises under their control will now revert to local control or be responsible directly to the ministries in charge of the eco- nomic areas concerned. THAILAND RE-EXAMINING TRADE POLICIES Thailand has seized on the recent action of the United States in easing restrictions on trade with the USSR and the East European Satellites to re- examine the question of contin- uing Thailand's strict controls on trade with the Sino-Soviet bloc. Premier Phibun has al- ready ordered the Foreign Min- istry to consider the advisa-' bility of easing Thailand's em- bargo on trade with Communist China, within the limits speci- fied by the United Nations. The semicontrolle.d Bangkok press has been calling for a re- laxation of all restrictions. In the past, Thailand has vigorously suppressed. trade with the Communist world. All direct trade with Communist China has Only former minister of light industry Chia To-fu ap- pears to have lost a position in the shuffle of economic per- sonnel, but he apparently re- tains other responsible jobs. Po I-po, Huang Ching and Wang Hao-shou have been named to head, respectively, the impor- tant National Economic, Techno-. logical and Construction Commis- sions, with Li Fu-chun contin- uing as director of the National Planning Commission. Three prominent non-Commu- nist figures have been appointed as heads of minor ministries. These appointments apparently reflect Peiping's intention to continue the facade of a united front in its effort to draw support from all quarters for its socialization program. (Prepared jointly with ORR) been prohibited and very little has been permitted with the rest of the bloc. These con- trols have been maintained in the face of growing trade with Communist countries on the part of many of Thailand's neighbors. Phibun, heretofore the lead- ing defender of these controls, is being subjected to increas- ing pressure to ease them. Bang- kok's influential Chinese mer- chants and the local press have been agitating for direct trade with Communist China and for permission to ship rice--Thai- land's most important export-- to other Communist countries. Certain high-level Thai offi- cials, probably including the powerful police director General Phao, have also ruaneuvered for S,CRET 25X1 PART I I Approved For Release 0&10 -C ~ -RD+lEN -00927A000800100001Page 12 of 15 Approved For?please 2005/02// f,.C l 79-00927AP0800100001-4 17 May 1956 a relaxation of controls, chief- ly in anticipation of the prof- its to be gained through their quasi-official "influence com- panies." The bloc has not hesitated to encourage such sentiment. Peiping's radio, whose broad- casts reach Bangkok, has quoted with approval Thai editorials in favor of direct trade. F___7 THE FOURTH CONGRESS OF THE INDIAN COMMUNIST PARTY The Fourth Congress of the Indian Communist Party, held be- tween 19 and 29 April, apparent- ly failed to eliminate serious factionalism within the party's ranks or to resolve basic poli- cy problems which have plagued it for the last five years. The party's line remains one of limited co-operation with the Nehru government, though it hopes in India's national elec- tions scheduled for early 1957 to replace Nehru with an "al- ternative" government or at least to strengthen its posi- tion at the state level. Party Factions There was much dissension between the three major party factions during the congress. The basic struggle was between the dominant group led by party general secretary Ajoy Ghosh, There have been numerous indications, moreover, that de- spite a recent reaffirmation of Thailand's strongly anti-Commu- nist orientation, Phibun and other Thai leaders feel Thai- land's policy is unduly rigid in the light of the relaxation of tensions since the Geneva con- ference. Although there is no serious challenge to their con- trol of the government or their ability to maintain trade controls with impunity, they may conclude that a relaxation of trade re- strictions would be a relatively innocuous first step toward a moderation of Thailand's policy toward Communist countries, while improving their own polit- ical and economic positions. which advocates limited co-op- eration with the Indian govern- ment, and the followers of P.C. Joshi, who favor complete co- operation with Nehru's social- istic program. Since Ghosh was apparently supported by about 300 of the 400-odd convention delegates and Joshi by only slightly over 100, the party line emerging from the congress re- flects primarily Ghosh's views. The "violent" or "terrorist" wing of the party, which has lost considerable ground during the past year as the result of changes in Soviet policy, was represented by only a few dele- gates and seems to have had little influence in policy-mak- ing. Party Line The approved Communist line is that, while remaining an SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 13 of 15 25X1 Approved Foelease 2005/0%JWP79-0092A00800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 opposition party, the party will give "wholehearted" supportito Nehru's government in its for- eign policy of defense of peace, in its efforts to reduce the dependence of the Indian econ- omy on imperialism, and in ev- ery measure taken against "feu- dal landlords." The Communists, however, will oppose any con- cessions by the government to "foreign capital" and will fight "antidemocratic" policies which suppress democratic rights. They will also bring pressure on the government to speed the pace of industrialization. The prevailing sentiment among delegates at the congress was reported to be that the Indian Communist Party had been damaged by the Bulganin-Khru- shchev visit last November, by the repudiation of Stalin, with which it does not wholly agree, and by the dissolution of the Cominform. ICELANDIC ELECTION DOMINATED BY AIR BASE ISSUE The campaign for Iceland's parliamentary election of 24 June is increasingly dominated by the issue of the US-manned NATO air base at Keflavik. The Conservatives, which are the most moderate of the parties on the issue, appear to be making an impact on the public, large- ly through astute attacks on the Progressives,who insisted on calling the elections at this time. No single group, however, is expected to obtain a major- ity of the 52 parliamentary seats at stake, and whatever government emerges is considered certain to seek some changes in the status of the base. After the Progressives called for the withdrawal of American troops from Keflavik Election Tactics As a matter of election tactics, the Communists apparent- ly intend to try to develop a united-front movement to strength- en the party's hold in state gov- ernments and on the national lev- el to achieve an "alternative" government to that of Nehru if possible. A special effort will. probably be made to obtain con- trol of the government of Tra- vencore-Cochin state. To achieve their ends, the Communists seem to be seeking support from the two socialist parties and have already attempt- ed to strengthen their position in the labor world. The Commu- nists also apparently intend to penetrate the Congress Party organization by supporting "pro- gressive elements" within. that party and by drawing certain Congress members into the united and forced a general election at an advanced date, the Conserva- tive-Progressive coalition gov- ernment assumed a "caretaker" status. The Conservatives have attacked Progressive foreign minister Gudmundsson for hypoc- risy in accepting the recent communique of the NATO foreign ministers' meeting at Paris to the effect that the internation- al situation warrants no relaxa- tion of the common defense ef- fort. This, they aasert, reveals the Progressive stand to be only an election maneuver. Though avoiding any direct defense of the status quo at Keflavik, the Conservatives are reported to be successfully appealing to the voters by em- phasizing that the base is a SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 14 of 15 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/ DP79-009-X000800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 real financial and economic asset to Iceland. In 1955, Iceland's net dollar earnings from the base were about $12,- 000,000, almost double dollar receipts from exports and cov- ering half Iceland's foreign exchange trade deficit. The Progressives are reportedly disturbed over the American de- cision to suspend negotiations on further defense construction until after the dune elections, since th?y fear that this move, When it becomes public, will strengthen the Conservatives' argument. Because of the success of the Conservative attacks, there is a growing possibility that the Progressive members of the caretaker government may make some move prior to the election to implement the Al- thip's antibase resolution of 28 March. The Communist press is demanding that the caretaker government send notes to the United States and NATO; and earlier this month Gudmundsson told the British minister he might have to do something to convince the v,iters that the parliamentary mandate is not being ignored. No decisive action is probable, however; the most the Progressives are likely to do is take some preliminary steps looking toward the post- election negotiations which all parties assume will be neces- jary no matter what the out- come of the election. The Communists are cam- paigning vigorously against the base under the auspices of a "Labor Alliance", which in- cludes the left-wing Social Demo- crats,-but this group is not expected to fare any better than the straight Communist ticket did in 1953, when it polled 16.5 percent of the popular vote and gained seven seats. The majority of the Social Democrats are allied with the Progressives. No group is at present expected to win a majority of the 52 seats at stake. SECRET 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001- PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS age 15 of 15 Approved Fo elease 200 W &A RDP79-0092 000800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES THE PROTEST IN THE POLISH.:COMMUNIST PARTY The Polish regime, faced with intraparty factionalism and mounting public disregard for official efforts to limit criticism, has reached the point where it must decide whether to continue its present inter- nal policies or resume the more rigid policies of the past. Either alter- native will raise new problems for L.he al- ready harassed Polish Communist leaders. Origins of Conflict Prior to the So- viet 20th Party Con- gress, the Polish political scene had been relatively stable on the surface, but underneath a "liberal revolt" had been grad- ually developingy led by the intelligentsia and a number of in- fluential party mem- bers who had been ag- itating ever since the death of Stalin for a liberalization of party policy. During 1954-1955, a number of writers began calling for less ideological control of the arts. Articles critical of life under Communism began to ap- pear, climaxed in the summer of 1955 with the publication by agitating for liberalization of party control and a more modern application of Marxist phi- losophy. these "liberals" included about half of the approximately 200 leading party functionaries Under. the chestnut trees, children big and small are running, From half-dismantled scaffolding, they Pull wood to the kitchen. On the stairs.is the noise of girls' names, diminutives, melodious, Fifteen-year-old, Prostitutes jump down on the Planks to the cellars, Their smile is as of lime, they smell of lime, Next door the radio is playing to the rhythm of a dance in the beyond, Night is approaching, hooligans are playing at hooligans, How difficult it is to fall asleep when you are young among the rustling chestnut trees. The dreamer Fourier charmingly foretold, That the seas would flow with lemonade. And is not lemonade flowing? They drink sea water, They cry - Lemonade! ' They go home stealthily To vomit, To vomit. There are People in Nowa Huta (much Publicized new industrial Who have never been inside a theater. area in Poland) There are There are There are There are There are There are There are Polish apples which the children cannot get, children scorned by wicked doctors, boys compelled to lie, girls compelled to lie, old wives thrown out of their houses by exhausted people dying of thrombosis, People who are slandered and spat on, There are People who- are robbed on the streets By ordinary thugs to whom they are trying to give There are people who are waiting for a little bit There are People who are waiting for justice, There are People who have waited for a long time. the noted Communist poet Adam Wazyk of his Poem for Adults, a bitter portrayal =o the deg-. radation,. of human beings in Communist Poland. These views of the writers reflected the opinions of an important element of the par- ty which had been constantly a legal definition, of paper, who make up the Central Party Aktiv which is used by the politburo to keep in touch with affairs within the party. This group was emboldened by the new look in Soviet poli- cy to press the politburo con- tinuously for the reforms which it felt were necessary to make Communism succeed in Poland. SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 PAST III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 1 of 13 Approved For Release 200NLVftLp1 -RDP79-009 A000800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17.May 1956 Throughout 1955, however, the politburo, led by a tri- umvirate consisting of First Secretary Boleslaw Bierut, Jakub Berman--the power be- hind the throne--and economic czar Hilary Minc, had refused to meet the"liberal" group.'s demands, awaiting the out- come of directives that would be laid down at the Soviet party congress. With the congress' apparent "green light" for the views of this "liberal"~ group, the party lead- ership set about to meet some of its demands. The party's problems in channeling and controlling the new liberal policy have been accentuated by the death of Bierut in March and the illness of Minc. The personal enmity be- tween the new first secretary, Edward.Ochab, a militant Com- munist who is presumably not in sympathy with the demands for greater party "democracy,' and the remaining member of the old triumvirate, Berman, probably was the principal cause for Berman's dismissal from his top party and gov- ernment posts on 6 May. His dismissal gives the new first secretary an opportunity to grasp firmly the reins of party control, and may serve to placate the party dissi- dents, whose support Ochab must obtain. Influential members of the "liberal" element in the party, however will not accept Ochab because of his evident willingness to use any means to stop the process of liberalization. An additional factor con- tributing to Ochab's unpopu- larity is the general belief within the party that Soviet. party first secretary Khru- shchev personally intervened in Warsaw to assure Ochab's election as successor to Bierut. Future Course of Action So far Ochab has given no clear indication as to how he intends to meet the problem of mollifying the Polish people and unmistakably re- asserting his control in the party. Under the new ideolo-g- ical pronouncements and poli- cy decisions of the Soviet 20th Party Congress, Ochab has more freedom of maneuver than his predecessors to meet the present challenge to his and the party's au- thority. Certain of the de- mands of the dissident party elements probably will be met. Within the framework established at the Soviet congress, steps can be taken which will "democratize" the party. If Ochab succeeds in re- establishing a satisfactory degree of party unity, he can then move to meet the problem of the uncontrolled public demands for greater internal freedom. Probably a number of specific changes will be made which will permit greater internal freedom and will prevent malpractices of the past. If, however, the palliative measures serve only to encour- age additional and more far- reaching demands by dissident party elements and'by the people, the regime will be forced to crack down and resort to severe police measures in order to make people can expect. it clear that there are very definite limits to the new "liberalism" and to what the SECRET Approved For Release Q,~/WA0S/ CM- 000800100001F4age 2 of 13 PART III PATj%( ANb ~ qWg 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 SECRET 17 May 1956 The nationwide election of provincial and communal councils on 27-28 May will be the first major test since 1953 of Italian political trends. Focusing on local aspects of national issues, the election may indicate whether a working alliance at.a national level is likely to develop between the Christian Democrats and the Nenni Socialists, at the expense of the Communist-Nenni Socialist unity of action pact. The Christian Democrats' showing-- both in these and the national elections due by 1958--will as. "Don't vote for those who voted for him!" In general, the Christian Democrats are stressing the progress made under ten years of national Christian Democratic govern- ment and in particular are poin'ti'ng to the Vanoni'. P la n, the -.,ten -- -year economic development program de signed. by the late budget minis- .ter.- to reduce unemployment and increase productivity. The party is carrying out a grass roots campaign similar to that used successfully in the Sicil- i.a.n regional elections of CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY ITALIAN ELECTIONS 1951-1952 LOCAL ELECTIONS (PARTY STRENGTHS BY PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULAR VOTE) OTHER RIGHT AND LOCAL MONARCHISTS LIBERALS COMMUNISTS 21,2 x NENNI SOCIALISTS CHRISTIAN 11.9 35.8 ?9 DEMOCRATS OTHER LEFT p DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISTS REPUBLICANS depend in part on their ability to convince the electorate of their intentions to carry out reform programs. The Campaign The campaign opened of- ficially on 15 April, with the Christian Democrats in the large cities displaying posters of Stalin, bearing such captions LIBERALS 1953 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS NENNI \SOCJAUSTSJ) 12.7 ,r3 DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISTS REPUBLICANS 1 OTHER CENTER 1955, and seems generally confi- dent about its prospects. The Communists, embarrassed by Moscow's new line on Stalin, are reported hopeful the Soviet Union will come forward with some kind of economic develop- ment loan to Italy of the sort President Gronchi has been seek- ing from the International Bank. The Communist campaign has SECRET COMMUNISTS 22.7 CHRISTIAN 40.7 DEMOCRATS 25X1 PART IIApproved For Re AUTINM V: ftMgW- V A0008001000d)aXe 3 of 13 Approved Fq,Release 200(5YMKL31 -RDP79-009PZA000800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 has consisted largely of attacks on the unpopular new "monopo- list" front formed by the industrialists, agricultural- ists' and merchants' confed- erations as a kind of economic lobby. The party is also try- ing to take credit for some of the Segni government's reform Cremona Mantova Piacenza+ _ _ Nuoro+ Bologna} La Spezia Pisa+Florence denigration.of Stalin to em- phasize long-standing dif- ferences between his party and the Communists. The smaller government parties are, on the one hand, stressing their accomplish- ments through association with ITALIAN ELECTIONS -KEY COMMUNES + Center-controlled commune { Leftist-controlled commune measures on the ground that these could not have been passed without both Communist and Nenni socialist support. Nenni is also stressing the effectiveness of his parlia- mentary support of the govern- ment, but is insisting that no more social progress can be ex- pected unless his party--he does not say the left in gen- eral--gains strength. He is also making a point of exploit- ing the confusion over the the coalition govern- ment, and, on the other, attacking the Christian Demo- crats for acting independently of their partners. The election efforts of the Mon- archists and the Neo-Fascists have aroused little in- terest. Party Expectations The Christian Democrats are confi- dent of doing at least as well as in the last local (1951- 52) and national (1953) elections, and hope to make gains of from one to five percent. They tend to get a smaller share of the vote in local than in nation- al elections. Never- theless, they are likely to win votes from the Monarchist and Neo-Fascist parr ties in the south and retain enough of the small city councils to give them control of slightly over half of Italy's 8,000 communes. The Nenni Socialists are expected by independent Italian observers to make gains also, and possibly to increase their 1953 vote as much as a third to give them some 17 percent of the total. Much of that gain would be at the expense of the small anti-Communist Social Democratic Party. Even Communist Party leader Togliatti SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 PART III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 4 of 13 9n 25X1 Approved For,&elease 2005/09b u ,Il~,P,QP79-00927AA 00800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 fears that Nenni'will draw votes from the Communists. For the Communists, the same observers predict a loss of some five percent which would leave them with less than 22 percent of the total vote. In the south, where Communist popularity is based mainly on promises of a better life eco- nomically, the party may hold its own. Losses are anticipated mainly in the more internation- ally minded north of Italy, an area where the party is dis- oriented by the results of the Moscow congress and by domestic strains. In communal adminis- trations, the Communists have tended to govern smoothly,~how- ever, and in Milan and Genoa, for example, they have attracted middle-class support. Thus the Communists hope to retain con- trol of certain northern cities. Of the three small center parties, only the Liberals ex- pect to gain. The Republicans fear virtual extinction, and many Social Democrats believe they can avoid such a fate them- selves only by rejoining the Nenni Socialists. The Monarch- ists and Neo-Fascists are ex- pected to show a marked decline. Postelection Problems Some Christian Democrats are already talking about the possibility of calling nation- al elections this-year instead of in 1958, if they show up well in these elections. The leaders of the party reportedly consider this would be a risky move, however, in view of the weakness of the party's coali- tion partners and other prob- lems facing it. ? The recent canceling of a provision whereby the group polling the largest vote re- ceives extra seats will make more difficult the formation of new local governments in the larger cities. The Chris- tian Democrats, in particular, may be forced in a number of these cities to form coalitions. In the south,?the Christian Democrats would probably form alliances with the rightest parties, but in certain large communes in the north, such as Milan and Turin, there would be pressure on them to become allied with the Nenni Social- ists. If the center parties did in fact form local alliances with the Nenni Socialists and these worked out well, the ques- tion ofa Christian Democratic- Nenni Socialist alliance on a national level would almost cer- tainly arise. For many months, the Chris- tian Democrats have discussed the Advisability of some such "opening to the left." The pro- ponents of such a move assert it would both strengthen the Christian Democrats' political position and split the Nenni Socialists from the Communists. In the latter regard, they point to the Nenni Socialists' support of the Vanoni Plan as indicative of the cleavage already existing between Nenni and his Communist allies. The Vanoni Plan The Vanoni Plan is a ten- year development project which has been described as the Chris- tian Democrat's most dynamic weapon against the Communists. The plan was designed by the SECRET PART III Approved For RPM n_qn a I0 1$ pJJRSPEC7TIVES7A000800100p001g-e 5 of 13 Approved FoK&Iease 2005/cjR DP79-0092 00800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 late budget minister to curb Italy's serious unemployment, increase productivity and di- minish the present wide gap be- tween the economies of north and south Italy. It would require the in- vestment of some ten billion dollars, much of which Italy hopes to get from American and other Western sources on the strength of OEEC's approval of the plan in principle. Imple- mentation of even the early stages of the plan has, however, been held up so far by the Christian Democratic Party lead- ership, which claims to be wor- ried by the opposition of right- wing elements within the party and the lack of American sup- port. The Communists were taken by surprise when the. Christian Democrats presented the plan two years ago. They initially opposed it and finally approved it only grudgingly, with reser- vations. The Nenni Socialists, on the other hand, went on rec- ord hastily in support of it and the question arose as to how they had become so familiar with it so fast. There was some spec ulation as to whether the plan had been discussed with them. Meanwhile, the general pub- lic has responded with marked enthusiasm, and impatience is growing over the delay in im- plementation. Even the conserv- ative. weekly, Twenty-Four Hours, which serves as spokesman for industry, came out last month with an editorial protesting the government's "attempt to bury" the plan and indicating the intention of some conserv- :ative groups to keep it alive. Reliable observers believe the plan has so-much popular appeal that Nenni's following might force him into support of the Christian Democrats if the latter indicated a real intention to implement it. Such an alliance in support of the plan would leave the Com- munists in a position of un- comfortable isolation or un- happy support. Meanwhile, Nenni continues, despite his differences with the Communists, to reaffirm publicly his unity-of-action pact with them and to avoid making a decison until events, which are moving in the direc- tion of a showdown, provide him with one. Various observers report that Nenni clearly feels himself heir to the Communist Party, but knows he does not have the strength to claim his inheritance now. They think he must first: (1) reinforce his own party and make sure that his following is prepared for a change and (2) take account of public opinion and show that he is prepared to play a role far different from that of re- cent years. 25X1 SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 PART III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 6 of 13 25X6 Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 Next 2 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 Approved Foreelease 2005/4S!I'DP79-0092Q00800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 LEGAL AND JUDICIAL REFORM IN THE USSR Since Stalin's death Soviet leaders have been moving cautious- ly toward legal and judicial reform. Some of the more oner- ous restrictions imposed on the iniividual during the Stalin era have been removed, and the ju- dicial powers of the police and military tribunals have been curtailed. Measures have also been taken to standardize and streamline the cumbersome sys- tem of administering justice. Revision of Criminal Code The present Soviet leader- ship has renewed the, demand voiced by Lenin in 1922 for the establishment of a uniform code of laws for the Soviet Union. The codes of the several union republics, although based on that of the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic, contain differences which make for inequities in the adminis- tration of justice. Of primary importance to the regime is a revision of the RSFSR criminal code. which wil.'1'bemade applicable throughout the country, Pre- sumably the publication of an all-Union criminal code would be followed shortly by uniform civil and procedural codes. Propaganda media are now stating that new criminal legislation may be completed during 1956. It is evident from propa- ganda and from the few changes that have taken place that any new criminal statutes will pro- vide more severe punishment for such serious crimes as treason, espionage and sabotage. At the same time, criminal responsibility for lesser offenses, such as malfeasance and breaches of the peace, will be replaced by ad- ministrative penalties and dis- ciplinary measures. Some changes exemplifying the new trend in criminal legis- lation have already been made. In mid-1954, for example, the death penalty was extended to cover cases of premeditated murder. At the same time, the system of parole, abolished in 1939, was reinstituted. Several categories of corrective labor camp inmates were declared eli- gible for parole, and many prisoners were evidently re- leased. Persons guilty of political crimes were unaf- fected. Official insistence on increased punishment for se- rious crimes makes it highly doubtful that the harsh pro- visions of Article 58 of the RSFSR criminal code, which deals with counterrevolutionary crimes, will be modified. Prior to the amnesty of September 1955, propaganda reiterating the necessity for increasingly stringent penalties for anti- state activities made clear the limited application of the amnesty decree. Only persons guilty of collaborating with the enemy during World War II, and particularly those who had left the USSR, were pardoned. Administrative machinery for performing the basic work necessary for revising the criminal code and writing an all-Union code of laws may al- ready have been set up. In April 1956, a section for the systematization of legislation was established in the office of the USSR prosecutor general. It is likely that this section is charged with resolving the differences existing between the various republic codes and that, of the RSFSR and recom- mending any changes necessary for drafting a USSR code. Abolition of Special Tribunals Perhaps the most sensa- tional aspect of the judicial reform movement has been the abolition of the special tribu- nals which meted out summary justice during the purges of 1934-38. Following the downfall SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 PART III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 10 of 13 Approved Fc, elease 2005/Q ?.,)t,6DP79-009 000800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 of Beria in July 1953, the Special Conference of the MVD was abolished. Officially em- powered to sentence counter- revolutionary elements to exile, forced labor, or banishment from the Soviet Union, the Special Conference in actuality imposed much more severe pun- ishments, including the death sentence. Although it was frequent- ly rumored during 1953-56, public announcement that the conference had ceased to exist was delayed until.1956, after the legal basis for such spe- dial tribunals had been de- stroyed by the repeal of two laws, enacted in 1934 and 1937. These laws had established ex- ceptional methods for the in- vestigation and trial of per- sons accused of violation of Article 58 of the RSFSR crim- nal code. Tried in secret by special tribunals within ten days after indictment, the de- fendants had no right to coun- sel and no right of appeal. The death sentence, if. imposed, was carried out immediately. Public announcement of the above developments was accom- panied by scathing denunciations of the "trial by confession" tactics employed by.the'late' Andrei Vyshinsky, Soviet pub- lic prosecutor during the purge era. In the anti-Vyshinsky campaign, party and government admitted that many persons had been accused falsely and that their guilt had been establish- ed on the sole basis of confes- sion. The police apparatus was accused of extorting ad- missions of guilt via "improper" methods of investigation and questioning of the accused. The Soviet leaders have promised that such glaring vio- lations of Soviet law will not be permitted in the future. Both the decree revoking the 1934 and 1937 laws and current propaganda state that hence- forth the investigation and prosecution of antistate crimes must be guided by "normal judi- cial standards established by law." The Prosecutor's Office Among the more important steps taken by the regime to prevent a recurrence of the terror of the 1930's have been a thorough reorganization of the prosecutor's office and changes in the court system. Shortcomings in the of- fice were acknowledged im- mediately after the execution of Beria, when Prosecutor Gen- eral Rudenko admitted in Pravda that his office had permitted violations of the law on the part of certain government of- ficials. In early 1955 Pravda again lashed out at Rudennko office for its lack of firmness in halting the "antistate activ- ities; of some public officials." The paper demanded that work be so organized as to make im- possible the "unfounded arrest and indictment of citizens." The functions of the prosecutor's office as con- ceived by the present regime were spelled out in a decree of the Supreme Soviet published in June 1955. The office was made subordinate to the Presi- dium of the Supreme Soviet rather than to both the presidium and the Council of Ministers as formerly, and was charged with the responsibility of preventing false arrest and investigation of citizens by the police. The decree also required that state prosecutors have a higher edu- cation. These provisions were put into force with the reorganiza- tion of the central apparatus of the prosecutor's office in April of this year. The crea- tion of a department for super- vision of investigations by the organs of state security was accompanied by the subordination of "investigators for especially SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 :PART III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 11 of 13 Approved FQ Release 20 M : *L-RDP79-009 A000800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 important matters" to the prosecutor general. It appears that this lat- ter move gives Rudenko super- visory 'powers over the func- tions of the former "Investi- gative Unit for Especially Im- portant Affairs" of the KGB. If this is the case, the office of the prosecutor general may now have certain real, if limited., powers of controlling the investigative work performed by state., se:cur.-ity '.orga:n$ The Court System Although the court system has not been basically altered, the formation, evidently in mid- 1954, of presidia of the re- public supreme courts and of oblast and rayon courts is of some. significance. The presidia were established in order to "safeguard" the courts "against possible mistakes and to elimi- nate quickly violations of le- gal procedures." This means, in effect, that a modified form of judicial review has been instituted. At the instance of pros- .ecutors. general or of presi- dents of supreme courts, the presidia are empowered to re- view and to reverse the de- cisions of the courts of the next lower echelon. The right to appeal the decisions of low- er courts was in no way extend- ed to litigants directly. A- vailable information indicates that the only method by which an appeal can be made by liti- gants is by privately gaining the ear of a prosecutor. Supreme Court chairman Volin recently indicated to a visiting delegation of French 'Socialists that certain other changes in court procedures will be made. He stated that drafts to modify investigation and trial procedures "have been prepared." While he did not specify what changes the drafts recommended, he asserted that defense attorneys would "soon" have the right to participate in investigation procedures from the point at which charges are lodged against the accused. Beyond doubt, the efforts of the post-Stalin leadership to eradicate all reminders of the police terror of Stalin's day and to establish a facade of strict legality in its deal- ings with the individual have had a markedly favorable effect on the Soviet population. The official end of terror as a means of control, amnesties and reductions in prison terms, lightened punishment for mis- demeanors, and recurrent propa- ganda calling for ensuring the rights of the individual Soviet citizen, have created an atmos- phere of security against op- pression previously unknown in the Soviet Union. According to public pro- nouncements, the citizens of the Soviet Union may expect further reforms of their judi- cial system in the near future. Among these will'be discontinu- ance of the use of the doctrine of analogy and the disappearance of corrective labor camps. Under the doctrine of analogy, de- fendants accused ofcrimes'not specifically enumerated in the criminal code are sentenced in accordance with provisions of the law covering the crime most closely akin to that committed. In order to eliminate the doc- trine of analogy, it will pre- sumably be necessary to include several heretofore unspecified crimes in the revised criminal code s With regard to the correc-- tine labor camps, information thus far available indicates that no abolition of camps per se is contemplated. The camps will evidently be converted into "work rehabilitation colonies" having their own industrial SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 PART III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 12 of 13 Approved F rgelease 2001p~2/a.~(1 DP79-009000800100001-4 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 17 May 1956 enterprises. It will be for- bidden to assign prisoners to work outside the colonies, and convicts will not be deported to places unreasonably distant from their homes. Despite the liberaliza- tion of the Soviet judicial system as it has evolved thus far, the fundamental concept of "socialist legality" has remained unchanged. The pri- mary function of the law in the Soviet Union is clearly to pro- 25X1 mote the aims of the Communist state rather than to ensure justice for the individual. .SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 PART III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 13 of 13 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4 Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000800100001-4