STUDIES IN INTELLIGENCE

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• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 9, 2005
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• Publication Date: January 1, 1973
• Content Type: IS

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IN
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VOL. 17 NO. 1 SPRING 1973
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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CONTENTS
Page
Strategic Arms Limitation and Intelligence ............................. 1
RICHARD HELMS
A unique involvement of intelligence with policy-making. SECRET
In Memoriam: R.Adm. Sidney W. Souers .............................. 8
Five Weeks at Phalane .............................................. 11
EDWIN K. STOCKINGER
Chasing Bitterfeld Calcium .......................................... 21
HENRY S. LOWENIIAUPT
Tracing an ingredient for the Soviet atomic bomb. SECRET
Deception ......................................................... 31
EUAN G. DAVIS AND CYNTHIA M. GRABO
Practice to deceive. SECRET
The Prediction of Soviet Intentions ................................... 39
ROBERT M. GATES
The Problem of Chinese Statistics .................................... 47
LEO A. ORLEANS
Evaluating China's Military Potential.
CETA: Chinese-English Translation Assistance ......................... 63
FENTON BABCOCK
A machine-assisted approach to a pressing language problem. OUO
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This issue of
STUDIES IN INTELLIGENCE
is dedicated to
RICHARD HELMS
Director of Central Intelligence
30 June 1966 - 2 February 1973
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A unique involvement of
intelligence with policy-making
STRATEGIC ARMS LIMITATION AND INTELLIGENCE
Several of my senior associates will be joining you next Monday to discuss
CIA, what its role is, and how it relates to the rest of the intelligence community.
In my own appearance here, I will try to give you an appreciation for our work by
describing one of our major intelligence problems and how we try to cope with it
in practice. I hope that our two visits will give you a full picture of what we do
and persuade you, when you return to your own departments, that our efforts are
worthy of your cooperation and support.
The problem I'd like to examine today is one which has been with us on and
off for almost two decades. Since 1969, however, it has grown so rapidly in impor-
tance and urgency that it now is one of our foremost continuing concerns. This
is the problem of the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks, commonly shortened
to SALT.
It will be immediately obvious to you that intelligence has major roles to play
in this matter. We are responsible for defining the Soviet strategic capabilities
which are to be limited in any treaty. After any agreement is signed, we will be
even more involved in continually monitoring whether the Soviets are observing
those limits. Beyond that, the subject has a further interest for intelligence profes-
sionals. It illustrates an involvement of intelligence with policy-making which-
in its thoroughness, its intensity, and its duration-is in my experience unique.
All right-minded men subscribe to the theory that sound intelligence should be one
of the fundamental bases of foreign policy, one of the starting points in the policy-
making process. The unusual thing about SALT is that the process is truly work-
ing that way. And this leads to some problems for the intelligence officer which I
will touch upon in a few moments.
:Despite endless lip service from all sides, arms control has made precious
little progress in this century. One of the key roadblocks has been finding a
reliable way to monitor any agreement. The issue is usually referred to as that of
verification, although "monitoring" is a more precise term. In brief, we have
insisted that any agreement must contain built-in ways of making sure, on a
continuing basis, that the Soviets are living up to it. Clearly the preferred way
would be to have the right to visit and inspect any facility which we suspected
was in violation. But they on their side have refused, very firmly, to permit on-
site inspection of a kind we would regard as useful. And so there the matter has
rested, by and large, until we could develop means which would satisfy our
concerns about possible cheating without running afoul of their objections to
foreign inspectors on Soviet soil. In other words, an agreement as wide-ranging
as the one contemplated at SALT has had to await the advent of a reliable,
repeatable means of verification from outside the USSR.
This brings me into an area in which I must tread with the greatest care. I
am talking, of course, about satellite reconnaissance. Everyone knows that this
activity is going on. And yet we still go to considerable lengths-and endure
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considerable inconvenience-to maintain a security barrier around it. There are
two excellent reasons for this. One is that certain details of the program still
must be kept from the Soviets if it is to remain fully effective. The second is that
the Soviets themselves are very anxious that it not be discussed. They are aware
of what we are doing, although not of the extent of our success, and they have a
vigorous program of their own. In fact, last year* they launched about three times
as many reconnaissance satellites as we did. But they have made it clear that
they are unwilling to agree explicitly to anything which would appear to some as
an infringement of territorial sovereignty, a matter on which they are extremely
sensitive. So we draw no more attention than is necessary to this activity. If a
treaty is finally achieved, you will find this point covered in language like
"national technical means of verification, operating within the generally accepted
principles of international law." There will be no misunderstanding between
Washington and Moscow about what is meant. But we'll avoid a lot of problems
by saying it that way.
Since the development of this capability has been so crucial in bringing about
the possibility of a major arms control treaty, let me give you a few benchmarks
in the program. We did not await the end of the U-2 flights over the USSR before
starting on a successor. In the mid-1950s, not long after the propulsion break-
through which led to the Atlas ICBM, the go-ahead was given. Working in the
closest cooperation with the Air Force, we had to break new ground in a whole
variety of systems and subsystems relating to propulsion, guidance, camera
performance, and command and control. The first five years were full of discour-
agements and setbacks, and I must say that I am tremendously impressed with
the courage and perseverance 'of my predecessors, and the ingenuity of our
contractors, in their repeated trips back to the drawing board. As a result, the
first full-systems success came in 1960, almost overlapping with the last U-2
flight over Soviet territory. Since then, reliability has become excellent. The
performance of the system, as well as the quality of the product, has dramatically
improved. It has come to embrace electronic, infrared, and other kinds of intelli-
gence in addition to imagery. We have reached the point where we can give to the
President some definite assurances about just what sort of treaty provisions we
can and cannot monitor with confidence.
And may I remark that, as an old hand in an Agency which is often accused
of housing inveterate Cold Warriors, I will be extremely gratified when the day
comes, as I think it will, when real limits can be placed on the arms race on the
basis of this work of ours.
This possibility began to take on some reality in the summer of 1968, when
the United States and the USSR jointly announced their intention to begin talks
on reducing both offensive and defensive strategic weapons. In the next month,
however, the Soviets invaded Czechoslovakia, and President Johnson had no
possibility of taking up negotiations before he left office in the following January.
This hiatus was extended when President Nixon decided that the government had
not really done all its homework thoroughly, and that we were not adequately
prepared for true negotiations with the USSR. Some of my people, I recall, were
reluctant to accept this at the time. But when they went back over the ground in
detail-and particularly when they saw the sorts of problems which actually
emerged once we began talks with the Soviets in November 1969--they were
frank to admit that not enough had been done.
The way in which President Nixon's administration addressed this task has
been dubbed the "building block approach." As a method, it foresees prolonged
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negotiations, for which it will not suffice simply to construct a U.S. position and
then try to get the Soviets to buy it. Instead, we have taken each strategic weap-
ons system in isolation. For example, we took ICBMs or ABMs, and explored all
the issues that would be involved in their limitation. This involves, in the first
instance, defining what limitations we could verify unilaterally. These building
blocks are then combined in various alternative models, which are examined from
the standpoint, not only of overall confidence in our ability to verify, but also
of the impact on the strategic posture of both sides.
It will be evident that this way of going about it involves a lot more work.
We have to cover the waterfront. In the process we have studied many subjects
which clearly are not going to be in any agreement reached in the foreseeable
future. But at the same time we have clarified a great many uncertainties, and
many of our results, though not relevant to the present phase of the talks, may
well become so in the future.
When I say "we," I'm referring to a considerable mechanism which has been
created to prepare for the negotiations and oversee them once they start. It will
surprise none of you to learn that this is done by an inter-agency committee.
This group* is chaired by Dr. Kissinger and includes Secretary Irwin from State,
Secretary Packard of Defense, Admiral Moorer of the JCS, Philip Farley of
ACI)A, and myself for CIA. Its name is the SALT Verification Panel, which
testifies to the priority given to this concern in formulating our position. Its job is
to produce background studies and provide the National Security Council with
a set of options from which the U.S. position is finally evolved. Naturally, it has
spawned lesser bodies where the work is done, notably the Verification Working
Group and the Backstopping Committee, on which all the same departments sit.
These groups have been in operation for over two years now, and the end is
not in sight.
This brings me to the concern which I touched upon earlier. Frankly, I am
made a little uneasy when large numbers of our officers find themselves working,
week after week and now year after year, as members of inter-agency groups
which are heavily concerned with policy-making. Make no mistake about it,
there are plenty of hot policy fights in these groups. The structure of the
Executive Branch guarantees that this will be so. ACDA's mission, for example,
is to prepare and negotiate arms control treaties, and they need people with a
commitment to that objective if they are to do their job effectively. The
Pentagon's mission is to make sure that the nation is militarily as secure as it
can be, and this encourages a different perspective. In some ways it is an
adversary system, and the hope is that out of it shall come one final position
which best satisfies all the elements, not just of the bureaucracy, but of the
national interest.
But when departmental missions lead to something with elements of an
adversary system, CIA is definitely not meant to be one of those elements. The
Agency as an institution is neither "for" nor "against" an arms control treaty. I
make sure that all our officers understand that they are not to involve themselves
in this kind of position-taking, which lies outside the purview of intelligence. It
is absolutely crucial for us that none of the policy-making departments should
have any reason to doubt the objectivity of the intelligence input. There must
never be any grounds for suspicion that intelligence is bending its conclusions to
suit some policy preference. If we ever lose our reputation for honesty in this
matter, we lose all our usefulness along with it.
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I said a minute ago that I had some uneasiness on this score. It is not because
anyone has ever challenged our objectivity, or hinted at suspicions about it. But
this long and intense involvement with policy makers is unusual for us, and I
simply feel obliged to worry that one or another of our people will get so deeply
embroiled in the intelligence angles of some particular controversy that he will
forget himself and step over the line into the policy aspects of the fight. It is a
matter of maintaining professional discipline against the inherent temptations of
human nature. I am confident that we have stayed clean so far, and I mean to
ensure that we continue to stay clean.
Let me give an example. The Soviets have a defensive missile system which
we label the SA-5. Everyone agrees that it is an effective system against aircraft.
Some believe that it has capabilities against ballistic missiles too, or that it could
be upgraded to acquire such capabilities. Obviously, this has a lot to do with the
U.S. position on ABM limits. If the SA-5 has no real value or potential in the
ABM role, we need not worry about it in drafting limits on ABM systems. If it
does, then ABM limits must be accompanied by some kind of controls on the SA-5.
Clearly, we have a major input to make, as an intelligence agency, on the
facts of the matter. It is also clear to us that it is natural for the policy-making
departments to divide on this issue---according to their hopes and fears-and to
derive conflicting recommendations about the U.S. negotiating position from it.
We cannot remain innocently ignorant of these implications. What we can do is
remain steadfastly indifferent to them, stick to the facts, share the facts and our
reasoning about them with all concerned, give our best judgment, and leave the
policy decision to others.
There is one area of policy, however, in which CIA has an inescapable re-
sponsibility. That is in reaching a finding of whether a given limitation can be
monitored by our own means. CIA does not reach these findings unilaterally,
but rather in conjunction with our brother departments sitting on the Verifica-
tion Panel. But this matter is our special competence as intelligence officers, and
our view carries corresponding weight. As to whether a given limitation is
desirable-whether it advances U.S. interests-we let the others argue about
that. But we expect to be held responsible by the President for monitoring any
agreement which is reached. So we want to be very sure that the agreement is
clear and precise about what is limited, that it is restricted to those areas in
which we can subsequently supply assurances that the USSR is complying-or
conversely that we can testify definitely to any violation.
Some examples may give a clearer idea of the factors involved here. At one
end of the spectrum, we have good capabilities for observing large distinctive
objects. That is to say, we can count ICBM silos and launch pads. We can count
aircraft. So we can monitor an agreement which provides that thou shalt not
deploy more than a stated number of these items. It would be tougher, by the
way, but probably not impossible, to monitor an agreement requiring reductions
in these categories.
At the other end of the range is the problem of controlling, say, what's inside
an object. MIRY is the famous example. No one has yet figured out a way to
determine, from 100 miles up, how many individual warheads may be inside the
re-entry vehicle on top of a Soviet ICBM. We cannot precisely verify a warhead's
nuclear yield, nor its accuracy, although we think our estimates are not far off.
In general, the area of qualitative factors-what are called performance charac-
t,eristics-is very much more difficult to monitor. It is not altogether impossible
to bring these factors within the scope of an arms control agreement. But to do
so would require something quite drastic. It might include a ban on all flight
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testing which would freeze the state of the art at its present level. And the
Soviets, who see themselves as behind in several of these areas, have made it
clear that they are not now prepared to give up testing.
In between, there are a lot of problem cases. Mobile ICBMs are a case in
point. After a lot of study, we have concluded that, should the USSR embark on
such a program, we could detect that they had done so. And we could get some
broad fix on its size. But this fix would be nothing like the precision we can obtain
on fixed land-based missiles. So the verification study on this weapon system
leads to the conclusion that we can either allow it within an over-all numerical
total, and accept a considerable area of uncertainty about compliance, or ban it
altogether. A further conclusion is that a total ban is verifiable, because there
would be little point in the USSR jeopardizing the whole agreement with small
violations, and we could detect large, strategically significant cheating. And
lastly in cases like this we also have to supply a well-based estimate of how soon,
after the Soviets began a forbidden program, we could catch them at it. In the
case of mobile systems, our estimate is it would take us as long as a year or so.
This kind of consideration has led us into another area of work which we
didn't foresee, the writing of military definitions. It's easy enough for everyone in
Washington to agree that SALT should cover, for example, strategic bombers.
And so that problem is solved until some smart fellow comes along and says, all
right, what is a strategic bomber? Is it defined by its size? Its weight? What
about range? and when that comes up, one wants to know: range from what
starting point? These things finally get sorted out, and then one comes up
against the Soviets and their definitions. Naturally, it turns out that each side
has framed its definitions in ways which embrace as much of the other fellow's
forces as possible, while exempting as much of his own as he can. And there are
plenty of differences in force structure which leave room for this sort of game-
playing. So we find ourselves in the unexpected position of composing a glossary
of terms, a process which is next door to drafting treaty language. This is an
uncommon role for intelligence officers, but our knowledge of Soviet weapon
systems makes us natural contributors to this effort.
As veterans of the Washington bureaucracy, you will all assume, and
correctly, that SALT has consumed a good many man-hours and generated quite
a bit of paper. The bookshelf in our SALT vault is now over six feet long, and our
commitment of personnel since January 1969 is pushing toward 100 man-years.*
Obviously, the priority of the task means that we have had to devote our top-
quality officers to it. Within CIA, I have chosen not to set up a large permanent
mechanism for this job, on the grounds that SALT will probably be with us for
a long time and has to be integrated into our regular commitments. We do have
a small full-time staff of four officers, but beyond this we have made SALT a
continuing priority concern of our most able people.
We also send a three-man team to the talks themselves in Helsinki and
Vienna. This group provides on-the-spot expertise on verification problems and
on current developments in Soviet strategic forces. It also extends intelligence
support and general assistance to Ambassador Smith and the delegation. Our
chief adviser at the talks is a senior Agency expert, but in keeping with the
distinction between intelligence and policy-making, he is not a delegate.
One of the useful aspects of the talks is the opportunity they provide to
engage a number of Soviet officials directly, on formal and informal levels, in a
continuing dialogue on strategic matters. As one would expect, they practice good
security. None of them has let drop any top secrets. But these contacts have
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served to clarify or confirm a few general propositions about the Soviets. For one
thing, it is clear that the two countries do share a common body of strategic
concepts. When we talk with them about deterrence, first and second strikes,
and so on, we discover that the implications of nuclear technology have impressed
themselves on the two sides in fairly similar ways. It is also clear that Moscow
keeps the Soviet delegation on a very tight rein, which is consistent with our
picture of how that bureaucracy works. We have also been treated to illustrations
of how far the Soviets carry the concept of security compartmentation. Their
delegation is very unevely informed. They have confessed that only a few of
them are privy to facts about Soviet systems and. programs which are well known
to the entire American delegation. On the day in which Ambassador Smith set
forth some details about Soviet ICBMs, eyebrows shot up on the other side of
the table, and notes were busily taken.
This sort of compartmentalization is something we're quite familiar with
from our work against the Soviet target. It has the sad consequence for us that
almost any Soviet source we acquire will have less knowledgeability than his
American official counterpart. This brings up the question of how human sources
fit into our plans for monitoring a SALT agreement. There is far too big an
element of luck in the agent business for me to promise the President that he can
rely upon agents as an important means of verification. At the same time, how-
ever, when one turns the problem around, the Soviets can never be entirely sure
that we don't have an agent placed so that he could report on cheating. And this,
I think, will serve to reinforce the inhibitions upon Soviet deceit.
Cheating is of course the key problem for us--for the U.S. Government and
particularly for CIA. If I could just sum up how I see it at the moment:
The United States is determined not to agree to any limitations which it
cannot, with real confidence, monitor unilaterally.
The Soviets do not fight us on this. They acknowledge that any agree-
ment would lose its validity if either side lost this ability to verify.
We now have a pretty clear picture of what we can and cannot verify,
that is, of what is eligible and ineligible for inclusion in a treaty.
Presumably the Soviet Union will not sign any treaty which does not
conform to its interests, and therefore it will have an interest in keeping it in
force. Cheating would have a high risk of detection, and getting caught
would be a major political setback which-they would have to recognize-
might very well set off a new arms push by the United States.
But one cannot eliminate all the unknowns forever in a world of rapid
technological change. With both sides continuing-perhaps even accelerating-
their research and development, new weapons--or important variations in old
ones-are bound to come along. In thinking about this, it has become clear that
one cannot write an arms limitation treaty now, one which can be unilaterally
verified, which will cover weapon systems which have yet to be invented. What
about an A BM system, for example, based on lasers? I cannot promise to monitor
a ban on such a system until you can tell me what it looks like.
There are two answers to this. The first, in the SALT context, is to recognize
the problem, not to try to write a treaty that will stand up forever, but to make
provision for a continuing dialogue, even a continuing negotiation, which can
try to grapple with new technological developments as they occur. In fact,
what the two delegations are seeking now is a very limited agreement, covering
only a few systems, with the stated intention of proceeding on to a wider treaty
later. This approach lays the groundwork for a further extension, embracing new
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systems, which do not fit the categories of the initial treaty. Without such an
extension, it is hard to imagine that a strategic arms treaty could remain viable
for very many years, without the security of one side or the other being
undermined by technological change.
The second answer, in the intelligence context, is to direct our future efforts
even more vigorously toward the problem of new Soviet weapons. This means
trying to anticipate them, to spot them, and to develop a capability to monitor
them closely enough, and in time, to meet treaty standards. Up to now, our job
has been the filling of intelligence gaps, and the tools developed for this task
have turned out to have major additional benefits in the verification field. In
the future, we have to consider verification as a priority in and of itself, and to
look for collection techniques tailored to this particular task. We will also find
that the frequency of intelligence coverage will be determined more by the re-
quirement to monitor an agreement than by the need to fill traditional gaps.
This will mean that coverage has to be regular, reliable, and I suspect, at times,
more frequent than we would otherwise need.
One last point on the future. The SALT proceedings envision that, as part
of any agreement, a Standing Commission would be created. In this commission,
either side could raise questions about the other side's compliance. The other
side could then provide explanations if it wished. This would be a sort of bilateral
Verification Panel, if you will, and I would expect that our Agency would have a
great deal to do with its work. In broader terms, such a Commission will be a
good test of how well the two sides can get along in maintaining a stable strategic
arrangement. If it works well, this will doubtless increase the chances for wider
agreements in the future. But if the Soviets prove uncooperative here, we will
have to think harder about entering into broader obligations with them.
Let me end on the note with which I began. This is rather new work for
intelligence officers. It is immensely challenging, and has brought us into new
involvements. I know that I have had to learn a great deal; I can now hold my
own in a discussion of laser technology-for the first thirty seconds. It has forced
us to learn how to stay very closely engaged with the policy makers, without
sliding over into policy-making ourselves. It will be with us for a long time to
come, and it will be constantly changing. I think we do it well, and l: mean to
make sure that we do it even better in the future.
In a larger sense, these are the goals we try to reach in all our work. Specific
cases vary enormously. But in all of them we strive constantly to be relevant to
the needs of the policy maker. We strive to be objective, to make the most of our
unique advantage among Washington bureaucracies-the advantage of not being
responsible for making policy. These two qualities-relevance and objectivity-
are the core of what we mean by professionalism in the intelligence business. To
the extent that we serve these principles, we believe we serve the Republic.
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 Approved For Release 2005/04/18 : CIA-RDP78TO3194A000400010002-9
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