NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010102-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 11, 2006
• Sequence Number: 102
• Publication Date: December 14, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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Wednesday 14 December 1977 CG NIDC 77/289C
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
AbEEMEA
0 State Dept. review completed Top Secret
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Wednesday, 14 December 1977
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T e NID Cable is for the purpose o in orming
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
POLAND: Pope's Speech Stirs Controversy
BELIZE: Independence Issue
BRIEFS
USSR
UK-EC
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Poland
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POLAND: Pope's Speech Stirs Controversy
The extraordinary support (liven to Polish party
chief Gierek by Pope Paul during their meeting on 1 December
has produced "shock and concern" among some Polish Catholic
intellectuals. The Pope's support has almost certainly strength-
ened Gierek's position within the country.
I IThe intellectuals' reaction to'the Pope's support for
sere reveals the contradictory feelings they have toward
Gierek. While they may see Gierek as; the least objectionable
party leader, they feel they cannot in good conscience support
him forthrightly or openly, as they think the Pope has done.
So controversial is this subject that the independent Catholic
weekly Tygodnik Powszechny omitted the portions of Pope Paul's
speech that were particularly helpful to Gierek. Differences
over how much the Church should support Gierek will become
more pronounced if it becomes evident that W sz nski did not
extract significant concessions from Gierek. 25X1
BELIZE: Independence Issue
//A vote of support for Belizean Premier Price
rom representatives of seven Caribbean and Latin American
nations, coupled with the over?,)- Zming defeat of his party's
candidates in the ReZize? City election, will probably stiffen
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Price's resolve to oppose any British-Guatemalan agreement
requiring Belize to cede territory to Guatemala in exchange
for independence.//
Last Friday, representatives from Panama, Venezuela,
Jamaica, Guyana, Surinam, Barbados, and Grenada met in Kingston
and declared that any Belize settlement should be based on
self-determination and territorial integrity. The resolution
also stated that the settlement must be acceptable to the
government and people of Belize, and that Belize must be a
party to all negotiations.
Two days before the :Kingston conference, Price
suffered a serious domestic political setback when his People's
United Party lost all nine seats on the Belize City municipal
council to the opposition, which had held six seats.// Although
there were a number of local issues involved, the opposition
candidates emphasized their party's line that Belize is not
ready for independence and that Price will recant on his pledge
not to cede territory.//
/Members of Price's party differ on whether the
independence issue played a role in the defeat. One-third of
the country's population lives in Belize City, however, and
both sides consider it to be something of a national barometer.//
Although the opposition generally has been stronger in Belize
Cit than the countryside, 25X1
If a national election were held now, Price's party would
lose.
//Price has little maneuverability left on the
independence issue. Independence is an old promise on which
he built his political career but which is now wearing thin.
Territorial cession before the 1979 election, however, would
play into his opponents' hands. Given the opposition's showing
in Belize City, Price would be hard-pressed to take Belize into
independence without submitting the question to a plebiscite--
something the opposition has demanded for years--and the chance
that he would win such a vote are now reduced.\
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he USSR has stepped up its attacks on the "neutron
om to coincide with the NATO meetings last week in Brussels.
The Soviets have been pursuing this campaign since last summer
but are no longer using the issue as a pretext to attack Presi-
dent Carter and his disarmament proposals. They are concentrat-
ing instead on official and public opposition to the weapon in
Western Europe.
/As expected, the House of Commons last night
overwhelming y rejected a government-sponsored amendment to
use proportional representation in elections to the European
Parliament. It opted instead for the more familiar plurality
single-member district system, ignoring government warnings
that this would delay Britain's participation in the elections
scheduled for next spring. The bill will now be returned to
committee, and further debate will be postponed until after
the Christmas recess. A final vote is not likely until January
or February.//
//The rejection received strong support from both
Labor an Conservative backbenchers. It is unclear what effect
this will have on the pact between Labor Prime Minister Calla-
ghan and his Liberal Party allies. Some Liberals, mostly out-
side Parliament, have demanded that the future of the pact
hinge on strong Labor support for proportional representation.
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Angola
The highlight of Angola's first national party con-
gress,-Held last week, was the transformation of the ruling
Popular Movement into the Labor Party--officially described as
a "vanguard working-class party pursuing a Marxist-Leninist
ideology." A new central committee consisting of 45 members
and 10 alternates was chosen. Its first task will be "to rein-
force ideological cohesion" by directing an immediate purge of
dissidents in the Popular Movement's former central committee.
No announcements were made regarding the composition
of the party politburo or a new cabinet. According to the Bel-
gian charge in Luanda, the congress had been expected to ap-
prove "a slight constitutional modification" empowering Presi-
dent Neto to name his own cabinet and consolidate his position.
The congress approved a three-year economic plan for
Angola an a reorganization of the country's defense and secu-
rity forces that includes a stronger role for the party. A
second national party congress is not scheduled until 1986,
although an extraordinary session has been called for 1980.
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The Polish Minister of Agriculture, Kazimierz Barci-
owsci, as been demoted to party chief of Krakow Province. He
will probably lose his candidate membership on the Politburo.
A US Embassy source has attributed Barcikowski's
a to Poland's agricultural problems and his poor health.
Barcikowski has generally been associated with the liberal
wing of the party leadership, however, and it is conceivable
that his fall is related to current controversies within the
leadership between liberals and hardliners over Poland's fu-
ture economic policies. The significance of his demotion may
become clearer at a session of the parliament this Friday or
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