NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029800010002-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 25, 2006
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: February 1, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Tuesday February 1, 1977 CG NIDC 77-025C
DIA review(s) completed.
State Dept. review completed
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Tuesday, February 25X1
ITne NID a e is tor the purpose o informing
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
SYRIA-LEBANON-ISRAEL: Situation Report
YUGOSLAVIA: Rivals for Tito's Mantle
CZECHOSLOVAKIA: Dissidents
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Page 2
BOLIVIA: Revised Narcotics Laws
USSR-JAPAN: Party Relations
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Page 5
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SYRIA-LEBANON-ISRAEL: Situation Report
//Syria has apparently stepped up its military
preparedness. The Syrian action probably was taken because of
the tense situation resulting from Syrian troo movements in
southern Lebanon near the Israeli bord r. 25X1
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placed on increased rea iness, and some reservists of the regu-
lar army and the Palestine Liberation Army were recalled to
duty late last week.//
//Military activity observed in
e Damascus area and a portion of the Golan Heights over the
weekend tends to support this report, but we have detected no
Syrian troop movements into Lebanon in recent days.//
//Israel continues to monitor the situation in
e anon, u apparently has not yet taken any military measures
in response to the situation there or in Syria. The US defense
attache in Tel Aviv traveled through northern Israel and the
Golan Heights on Sunday and saw no unusual activity.//
//The Israelis have held high-level meetings re-
cen y on the Lebanon situation and probably have drawn up
contingency plans for any show of military readiness that. is
needed.
The Yugoslav party Presidium yesterday gave key posts
in the preparations for the next party congress to the bitter
rivals for Tito's mantle as party leader. The move will result
in a test of strength that may well determine who succeeds Tito.
I Party executive committee secretary Stane Dolanc will
e in c arge of congress preparations and will head the highly
important subcommittee on cadre matters. This post will enable
Dolanc to build a personal power :base in the party hierarchy.
25X1 I I Tito, however, also designated Jure Bilic, a nominal
subordinate to Dolanc who in fact tries to undercut him at
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every opportunity, as head of another sensitive working group.
Bilic has responsibility for drafting both the new party stat-
ute and a document on party organizational matters.
?
I I While Bilic is likely to use both jobs to
challenge o anc, his organizational responsibility offers him
an unparalleled opportunity to undermine his rival.
The stage has thus been set for some stormy in-fight-
ing before the congress meets next year. Dolanc is clearly
stronger than Bilic at this stage, but their new assignments
might well force uncommitted party leaders to choose sides.
Dolanc will be pressed to build a consensus behind him or face
political oblivion.
The assignments appear to be a maneuver by Tito to
force the party to settle on a successor without appearing to
have made the choice himself. The 84-year-old leader--who cele-
brates his 40th year as head of the party this year--neverthe-
less still is capable of engineering his own succession. He can
now do so from a polite distance by merel resolving conflicts
that occur over congress preparations.
J Prague television on Saturday denied Western press
specu a ion that the regime plans to expel several prominent
dissidents. It called the charge that Czechoslovakia wants
forcibly to deport the dissidents an unsolicited move designed
to "conjure up ghosts."
Czechoslovak-Austrian diplomatic contacts on this
issue as week coincided with a Czechoslovak media campaign
suggesting that the dissidents might be happier in the West.
Last Friday, six of the signers of the Charter 77 human rights
manifesto reportedly were summoned to the Prague passport of-
fice and asked to sign emigration applications. All refused.
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In an important new twist to the campaign of intimi-
dation, two of the leading spokesmen for Charter 77 were warned
by the prosecutor general yesterday that both the manifesto and
their defense of it are illegal. This is the first time the re-
gime has officially declared that the document and activity
connected with it are contrary to Czechoslovak law. This sug-
gests the authorities are now prepared to levy criminal charges
against those who continue to agitate.
The US embassy meanwhile reports that the Charter 77
group is continuing to press its case. The number of signato-
ries, according to spokesmen for the group, has now passed 400
.
The text of the manifesto is now reportedly being distributed
outside of Prague, where some interrogations have reportedly
taken place.
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A major revision in Bolivia's stiff narcotics laws
may resu t in speedier justice for a number of US citizen
being held in local jails.
The most significant change in the new decree reduces
the minimum prison term for simple possession of narcotics from
ten years to two. Because of the harsh mandatory penalties un-
der the previous law, many Bolivian judges were reluctant to
sentence prisoners convicted of minor offenses. Offenders
nevertheless were sometimes subjected to prolonged periods of
detention.
J Judicial procedures have also been simplified, and
specs is time limits have been set for completion of various
trial stages. Some convicted US citizens, for example, have
been awaiting sentencing for as long as three years. By con-
trast, a period of one year from arrest to sentencing is the
average in Mexico and Colombia, where many US citizens also
have been arrested on narcotics charges.
The revised law will not help prisoners who face
more serious charges. The penalties for transporting or manu-
facturing drugs, for instance, have been maintained or even
increased and now range up to 25 years.
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USSR-JAPAN: Party Relations
//The Soviets are making halting progress in
healing their 12-year breach with the independent-minded Japa-
nese Communist Party, but the effort could still come to naught.
The Communists make up the smallest of Japan's oppo-
sition parties; it took a severe beating in the election last
month. It sees itself as an independent party like the Italian
and French communist parties and would like to put its currently
frigid relations with the Soviet party on at least as good a
footing as those of other independent communist parties.
Relations between t: he Soviets and the Japanese Commu-
nists were severed in 1964 when the Japanese Communist Party,
which was then pro.-Chinese, Expelled presidium member Yoshio
Shiga for supporting the partial nuclear test ban treaty, which
the Japanese party had opposed. Since then, periodic reconcilia-
tion attempts have foundered. Japanese Communists have criti-
cized Soviet actions, and the Soviets have supported Shiga and
courted the Marxist Japanese Socialists, the largest opposition
party.
//The latest reconciliation attempt came as a
resui.t o a Soviet initiative, prompted in part by Moscow's de-
sire to improve its standing with Asian communists and in part
by its anger with the Japanese Socialists, who now seem to be
leaning toward Peking.
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