BANGLADESH : THE FOODGRAIN OUTLOOK THROUGH 1985

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000500230001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 27
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 11, 2000
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 1, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Bangladesh: The Food roar `tlok Thou h ~9$~ Jan' T5
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FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Bangladesh: The Foodgrain Outlook Through 1985
ER W/5-1
January 1975
Copy No. d k
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 Approved For Release 20001Qa/.1$ iql-A~o 6ap q,08R000500230001-2
BANGLADESH: THE FOODGRAIN OUTLOOK THROUGH 1985
OBJECTIVES
1. The objectives of this public, Lion are to assess past and prospective
Bangladesh agricultural development and, on the basis of this assessment, to forecast
the probable 1985 gap between foodgrain. production and req.Iiremelts.
2. Agriculture in what is now Bangladesh responded favorably during the
1960s when the Pakistan government increased investment in its cast wing. Peak
foodgrain production rose from 8.4 million metric tolls during the I 950s to 12.1
million toils in FY 1970.1 After severe setbacks in foodgrain production as a result
of natural disasters and the civil war, foodgrain production in FY 1974 recovered
to its IFY 1970 level. Imports declined to 2.1 million tons from a high of 2,9
million tons in FY 1973.
3. Dacca will have to give agriculture nlncll more attention if' the 3.4',%%
annual growth rate of foodgrain production in the 1960s is to be reestablished.
An even more rapid rate of growth must be aitained in order to keep the gap
between demand and domestic production from widening over the next decade.
4. The pressure of population growth on Bangladesh's agricultural resources
shows no signs of' abating. Death rates have fallen sharply, and family planning
measures have had virtually no i1lll1,i1J Budgetary support for birth control
programs is weak. Demographers foresee little change ir. the birth rate and predict
that the 1974 population of 81 million will increase to nearly 115 million in 1985.
5. Bangladesh has the potential for substantially raising agricultural
production. For example. irrigation can add six million acres to planted area in
the dry season; less than I5%% of cultivated land is under high yielding varieties
(HYV) of grains; and utilization of' fertilizers and pesticide' is minimal.
I. The 13anglalesh fiscal year ends cn 30 June of the stated year.
Note: Comments and queries regarding this publication are welcomed. They may
be directed to
Extension 6653. STATINTL
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January 197 r)
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the growing demands of its poplllali ll, Daccil Illust formulate -Ilajor Corrective
programs and persevere ill their execution. Areas requiring Cl phasis include the
following:
? Reduction in the population growth rate through vigorous family planning
programs.
?Accelerated development of intensive irrigation capable of supporting the
multiple cropping oI' IIYVs.
?FIood control to protect farlllland and reduce the annual variation in
rice production.
?I xpandell production and improved distribution of IIYV seeds, fertilizer,
and other agricultural inputs.
o Increased rural institutional credit, with a larger share going to small
farnners.
7. We believe that the government is unlikely to inplenIent successfully
programs that would significantly improve the rate of growth) of' f'oodgrain
production. Bangladesh has governed itself' only since 1971, and allnlinistralive
experience is scarce. Numerous development projects are stagnating for lack of
government guidance, even those fully financed by foreign finds. Barring an
unforeseen change in government performance, the 1985 gap between production
and domestic demand appears likely to fr d within a range of' 3 million to 4 million
tons. The financing of imports to close the gap will continue to strain the nation's
limited export capability.
Background
'flee l griculiurul Scene
8. Agriculture is Bangladesh's most innportant economic activity,
contributing about 00';' of gross domestic product (GDP). compared with 9' I'or
manufacturing. More than three-fourths of the 1-ogle are farmers. Nonetheless,
Bangladesh is Unable to feed its 81 million people and requires imports of 10';%
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domestic production is difficult and cosily because all available land is already
cultivated. Most farmers grow little more than enough to ft cl their own families.
Production methods are primitive, farmers are hardened with (Icht, and yield per
acre is among the lowest in the world. Poverty hinders the adopting of improved
agricultural methods. Many secrk not the lv."gest crop but the surest one.
`). Rice is the mainstay of the diet and is grown almost to the exclusion
of other cereals. Rice yields are largely inlluenced by the tinting of' rainfall and
inundation. Two of the world's largest rivers, the Ganges and the Bin Ii maputra.
flow through Bwtgl:ulesh, and a third - the M~-ghna - flows from Assam the
wettest part of India. The total annual flow of these rivers and their Irihutarics
is twice that of the Mississippi. The summer monsoon deposits from 50 to IS(i
inches of rainfall, usually flooding about a one-third of the country and sometimes
causing widespread crop and property damage. In October the rains atop, the land
drains, and the rivers shrink. Generally, by February, drought Condilions set in,
and irrigation is required until May for crop growth. This hydrological cycle makes
it necessary to use both flood control and irrigation systems to realize the region's
agricultural potential.
10. The soil is fertile, and the climate permits plant growth throughout the
year. There are three seasons a year in which rice can be cultivated, hilt they
overlap to sonic extent so that the same land cannot carry all three Crops. wife
three arw.u:d rice crops are (a) the aus harvest in July and August, (b) the aurae
harvest in November and December, and (c) the born harvest in April and May
(see the chart). They represent about 20'I%, 60'/%, and 20'X,, respectively, of rice
output. The au-au crop is grown practically throughout the country in holm
highlands and lowlands. It is sown earlier on lowlands to permit sufficient growth
to withstand inundation by monsoon floods. The aus crop also is widespread, brit
has a shorter season and is limited to highlands to avoid monsoon flooding. The
boro crop, grown during the dry season, is limited by irrigation requirements and
is grown mainly in the marshy northeast.
11. The average land-owning villager possesses only 1.5 acres. Ile rents another
acre from the well-to-do villagers and therefore cultivates 2.5 acres. This area is
usually fragmented into six or more plots, some of which may he widely separated.
Fie owns one scrawny bullock for plowing. The plow is a light 15-pound rig that
turns only two or three inches of soil. The principal family resource is the rice
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BANGLADESH: Growing Seasons of Rice Crops
V
AMAN ~ Seedlings
I
Seedlings
AMAN
Lowland
AUS
Highland
BORO
Lowland
Soodlings I I I I I
Plant Growth Harvest
Growth
kept for consumption, the. product from about two acres. Since the usual rent
of rice land is 50`%~ of' the crop, the average villager will u;ct lit tie more than enough
produce to feed his family and finance a few purchases of clothing. cooking oil,
etc. if he becomes indebted to moneylenders, he barely manages interest payment;,
and an occasional bad year puts him even deeper into debt.
2. The life of the one-tenth of the village laborers who are landless i,: even
more grins. They are at the mercy of the landowners and are often evicted after
a bad harvest. They earn two meals of rice and the r;quivalent of' 25 cents to
35 cents a day during the peak of planting or harvesting season. In slack periods.
hardly one in four will get a job, and even then for only 20 cents a day and
no meals. During the slack season, therefore, the jobless often travel 100 miles
or more to public construction projects providing some employment. At planting
or harvesting time, they move back to their home areas.
13. Foodgrain output increased an average of 2.6',%% annually between
FY 1948 and FY 1970, ending with peak output of 12.1 million tons in the last
of those years (sec Table 1). Most of the increase camp, during the I 960s, however,
when output expanded at 3.47o per year, compared with virtual stagnation during
the previous decade. Both acreage a;)d yields expandea rapidly during the 1960s.
4
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Jul Aug Sup Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
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Bangladesh: Foodgrain Production
Million Metric Tons
Fiscal
YearI
Aus
Aman
Boro
Wheat
Total
1948
1.45
5.06
0.32
0.02
6.86
1949
1.43
6.09
0.27
0.02
7.82
1950
1.27
5.84
0.39
0.02
7.52
1951
1.82
5.36
0.28
0.02
7.48
1952
1.62
5.19
0.34
0.02
7.17
1953
1.68
5.41
0.36
0.02
7.48
1954
2.19
5.84
0.35
0.02
8.40
1955
1.99
5.35
0.37
0.03
7.74
1956
1.82
4.32
0.34
0.01
0.51
1957
2.19
5.88
0.24
0.02
8.34
1958
2.12
5.24
0.36
0.02
7.74
1959
1.59
5.05
0.40
0.03
7.06
1460
2.13
6.08
0.41
0.03
8.65
No l
2.54
().68
0.46
0.03
9.70
1962
2.37
6.76
0.49
0.04
9.66
19()3
?24
6.14
0.49
0.04
8.9I
1964
2.70
7.41
0.,2
0.03
10.66
1965
2.54
7.38
0.58
0.03
10.53
]Q60
2.96
6.91
0.63
0.04
10.54
1067
2.69
6.01
0.84
0.06
).61
1968
3.11
6.92
I .13
0.06
! I . 2
1969
2.73
6.98
1.64
0.09
II.44
1970
3.01
7.06
1.93
0.10
12.1 1
1971
2.91
6.0 t
2.23
0.11
11.20
1972
2.38
5.78
1.81
0.11
10.08
1973
2.31
5.68
2. I C
0.09
10.15
197,13
2.85
6.81
2.26
0.10
1_'.01
I. Ending 30 June of stated year.
2. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown.
3. Preliminary.
trains stemmed primarily from t'.c expansion of irrigation that made possible the
doubling of acreage in burn rice (see Table 2) and the introduction of IIYV r;ee
that doubled born yields (see Table 3). Expansion of the mis and a man crops
has been limited by inadequate control over monsoon flooding; IIYV rice demands
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Table 2
Bangladesh: Area Planted to Rico
1?.ndine 30 June ul'stated year.
2. I3CCInse 01 roun(1uu, eumpuncfIs War not add t+) the totals shown.
3. Preliminary.
Fiscal
YearI
Aus
Aman
11oro
TotaI2
1948
4.90
13,35
0.76
19.01
1949
4.75
13.86
0.81
19.42
1950
4.67
14.01
0.84
19.53
1951
5.26
13.95
0.80
20.01
1952
5.45
14.03
0.83
20.30
1953
5.50
14.44
0.84
20,78
1954
6.32
14.85
0.84
22.01
1955
6.03
14.45
0.86
21.34
1()5(-
5.82
12.99
U.6)
19.49
1957
5.99
13.38
0.61)
_0.0(i
1058
5.79
13.63
0.82
20.24
1959
5.65
13.15
0.85
19.()4
1960
5.95
14.29
0.92
21.15
1961
6.30
14.58
1.01
21.89
1962
5.87
14.08
1 01
20.96
1963
6.19
14.22
1.07
21.48
1964
6.59
14.60
1.07
22.26
1965
6.65
15.11
1.05
22.8 1
1966
7.32
14.(,/
1.14
23.13
1967
6.97
14.06
1.18
'_22 1
1968
8.22
1-1.08
1.53
24.44
969
7.66
14.40
'.02
24.07
1970
8.46
14.84
2.1,,
25.49
1971
7.89
14.18
2.43
24.49
1972
7.42
13.00
2.20
22.62
1973
7.24
14.12
2.43
23.79
9743
7.68
14. 13
2.66
24.47
more precise water control than do traditional varieties. In FY 1972, IIYV rice
contributed 6`i%%, 15W, and 52,''(of' the rice output of' the arcs, anrai). and born
crops, respectively.
14. In the early I 970s. rice production suffered a series of extraordinary
sotbacks - the cyclon.., of November 1970, the civil war of 1971, and a poor
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Bangladesh: Average 'Yield of Rice Crops
Pounds per Acre
Fiscal
Yearl
Aus
Aman
Boro
Total
1948
655
837
940
794
1949
664
969
739
N85
1950
601
918
1,007
847
1951
762
847
783
822
1952
655
816
895
776
1953
674
826
940
790
1954
762
867
918
839
1955
726
816
962
796
1956
691
735
1,086
734
1957
807
969
772
914
1958
8()7
847
985
841
1959
619
847
1,029
789
1960
789
939
974
}198
1961
888
1.010
996
97.1
1902
888
1,058
1,078
1,012
1903
797
952
1,007
910
1964
904
1,118
1,067
1,052
1965
843
1,077
1,221
1,G; 5
1906
893
1,038
1,218
1.001
1967
851
943
1,576
948
1968
834
1,031)
1,627
),007
1969
785
1.069
1.792
1,039
1970
784
1,049
1.953
1,039
1971
813
934
2,024
1,003
1972
707
980
1.814
972
1973
703
887
1,905
9.3 5
19742
818
1,063
1,873
1,073
I. finding 30 June of stated year.
2. Preliminary.
monsoon in 1973 -- but returned to pre-independence levels in FY 111"4. The
government place the FY 1974 rice crop at 1 I.9 million tons. but independent
estimates range from 12.3 million to 12.5 million tons. liven the government's
lower estimate represents an I8% increase over the preceding year. But with more
mouths to feed, per capita production still has not recovered.
7
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15. Rice production has been inacleyuale to Iced the population since the
1930s. During the early I950s, East Pakistan approached self'-sulTieiency in
I'oodgrains, but again became a large importer by the end of the decade as
population growth ac'.cIeratecI while rice production stagnated (see Table 4). E.vcr
when rice production )egan to incr~?e cloning the I 960s, East Pakistan's l'oodgrain
imports contimwd to rise.
Bangladesh: Foodgrain Imports
Thousand Metric ions
Rice
Wheat and Other Grains
All
Fiscal
West
Other
West
Othei
Food-
Yearl
Pakistan
Countries
Total
Pakistan
Countries
't'otal
grains
1950
119
43
102
N.A.
N. A.
N. A.
1951
29
....
29
N. A.
N. A.
N.A.
1952
74
....
74
N. A.
N. A.
N. A.
1953
07
....
07
10
10
77
1954
4)
49
21
21
70
1955
2
....
2
17
17
19
1950
12
55
07
31
40
107
1957
3
541
544
58
41
99
043
1958
134
421
555
27
100
!27
682
1959
287
I82
409
20
7
27
496
1960
83
300
443
33
148
18I
624
1961
104
382
48c
14
234
248
'734
196'
22
2W
225
37
I95
232
457
1 %;
248
245
493
09
917
986
1.479
1904
187
143
330
9
657
000
9()0
1965
22
02
84
68
250
318
402
1966
278
48
.,2o
23
529
552
878
1967
24:.'
191
433
84
716
800
1,233
1908
160
150
31O
25
674
699
I.015
1909
I9I
O6
,57
193
739
932
1.189
1970
410
120
530
103
930
1,003
1.023
1971
313
787
1.100
272
854
) 1
1,981
19722
....
500
500
....
1.350
1.350
1.850
1973
....
385
385
....
2.5002
2,500
2,8;;5
19742
....
83
83
....
2,000
2,0150
2,083
I . I?:nding 30 June of stated year.
2. 1~stintatcd.
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16. The 1974 monsoon has been heavy, bringing unusually scvcre flooding,
especially in the eastern areas. A loss of'abouI 800,000 tons from flooding normally
is anticipated. Dacca's claim that this year's losses amounted to nearly 2 million
tolls is almost certainly exaggerated. In any case, the heavier rains in Lreased yields
in dryer areas, partly ollsetting above-normal flood losses. The government is
projecting 17Y 1975 foodgrain import requirements at 2.3 million tons.
Government Pulrc},
17. In its First Five-Year Plan (FY 1974-78), Dacca has set a goal of foodgrain
sell-sufficiency by the last year of the plan. Rice production is to sustain a growth
rate of more than 67, annually -- an unprecedented rate. In addition, wheal output
is to grow 32'%, a year. To realize this rate of growth, Dacca is to undertake massive
programs to expand irrigation, control flooding, increase 1IYV rice acreage, expand
rural credit institutions, and improve availability of fertilizer, pesticides, and
herbicides. One-fourth Of the development budget has been allocated to agriculture
and related sectors, compared with :.11OUI one-third during the I960s and in
13arlglaclesh's first two annual plans. In real terns, the planned ont!;;y for agriculture
will be no larger than in previous plans, in which funding was considered inadequate.
Considering the meager resources available and the problems confronting agriculture,
Bangladesh will be fortunate if foodgrain production simply keeps pace with
population growth and the foodgrain deficit 2ocs not increase.
18. The government mainta'us it costly and extensive foodgrain distribution
system to assure minimum essential supplies to residents of four niajOr Cities and
to poorer elements in other areas. Official foodgrain stocks are distributed through
fair price shops - specially licensed small private stores. Foodgrains and other
essential commodities are sold to ration cardholders in fixed amounts and at set
prices. Comprehensive statutory rationing exists in Dacca, Khulna, Chittagong, and
Narayanganj, where varying supply conditions cause frequent changes in ration sire.
In August 1974 the ration was about 6 pounds of rice a week per adult. By
mid-October 1974, it had been reduced to about 5 pounds. In other towns in
food-deficit areas, only the poorer segment of the population is issued ration cards
for subsidized foodgrain purchases. Substantial quantities of foodgrains also arc
provided free as relief' in the event of natural calamities or acute economic distress.
In recent years, the government has distributed the equivalent of I5`G to 25',';,
of domestic grain production.
19. Almost all grain for govcrtlment distribution is imported. Although the
government buys rice in local markets, mainly from the aman crop, acquisitions
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have fallen short. From the last uwnan crop, the government's procurement target
was 400,000 tons, but only 67,000 tons were obtained because prices ol?I?ered by
government agents were substantially below free market prices. The government's
low procurement price Ior rice is not a disincentive to domestic production,
however, because of the strong demand in the free market.
20. Agricultural inputs are also subsidized. In the Fifth Plan, 1 9"/?, of the
cost ol? all agricultural inputs distributed to farmers is to be subsidized by the
government. Because the input program has a large foreign cr.changc component
and receipts are in domestic currency, the real subsidy is substantially higher.
Currently, subsidies amount to 60%o for phosphates, 40'%? for potash, and 80/% For
irrigation pumps, whereas pesticides are usually distributed free.
21. Shortage of foodgrains is one of the major causes of 13angladesh's
continuing inflation. The price of rice has doubled since independence, but rose
only about 20% last year because of increased production. The government attempts
to retard inflation by keeping ration shop prices artifically low. Nonetheless, ration
prices for rice and wheat were increased 33%, and 44/,, respectively, last M:.iy.
The government has committed itself to holding the general price rise in FY 1975
below 10';(,, but achievement of this goal is unlikely.
22. Because of the high price of rice in India and a black market currency
exchange rate favoring the Indian rupee, there is smuggling of rice from Bangladesh
to India. Informed estimates of its volume range frcrn 200,000 tons to 500,000
tons annually. To combat snlugglinn, Dacca discon inued free trade with India in
its border arras. Dacca requires also that the entire rice production from the husking
mills within ten miles of the border he sold to the government. Enforcement is
dil?ficult, however.
Factors Affecting Future Demand
23. While there is substantia! disagreement on the size of its present
population, there is no doubt that Bangladesh is the world's eighth most populous
nation. Our estinwle of population is based on several assumptions, all of them
conservative:
? population as of July 1970: 73.3 million (range of' estimates: 70.0
million to 77.5 million);
? population growth rate: 3.0'%% (range of' estimates: 2.91%% to 3.5'/x):
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? fatalities in November 1970 cyclone: 300,000 (government o;, Pakistan
estimate: 250,000) (Bangladesh claims of 500,000 appear inflated for
political reasons);
it, fatalities in war for independence: 1.5 million (Bangladesh claims of 3
million appear inflated for political reasons); and
? war refugee exodus to India - all forced to return.
On the basis of these assumptions, we estimate Bangladesh's mid-1974 population
at 81 million.
24. Dacca estimates present annual population growth at 3.09'i and hopes
to reduce the rate substantially by 1985. - :ost demographers believe that present
annual population growth is closer to 3.3'% and that only a marginal reduction
in the rate is possible by 1985, especially since nearly one-half of the populalion
is less than 15 years old. If population grew at 3.09;% per year, it would reach
113 million in mid-1985. At a constant 3.3%, per year. population would reach
115 million. There is no precedent for a population of' this magnitude living in
an essentially rural environment in an area the size of' Louisiana.
25. Dacca has a small family planning program, but admits that almost
nothing has been accomplished since independence. Many Dengalis considered the
pre-independence government's emphasis of' family planning a political weapon
intended to reduce East Pakistan's population relative to that of West Pakistan.
Not only are present government birth control programs insufficient, hilt also the
pre-conditions for their success (10 not yet exist. Although religion is not an obstacle
to birth control, tradition and economics are. A large fancily is a torn; social
security, and parents, aware of' the high rate of' child mortality, continue to have
children until at least one son grows to manhood. The low level oI' literacy and
economic development also hampers the success of any birth control program. Thew
conditions are not likely to change rapidly in Bangladesh, where more than 90':
of' the population lives in rural areas and is engaged principally in subsistence
agriculture.
26. The current level of food consumption is minimal, and the duality of
the average diet is very poor. Malnutrition is endemic. While most of the rural
population subsists on what it grows, the average urban wage earning family spends
about two-thirds of its budget on food. Consumption of leafy vegetahies and meat
is low, but abundant fish provide some protein. In most homes, only nonperishable
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footlslttfl;s can be stored. 'I fills, I'oudgrains accutrnt for Soule three-fuurlhs of the
calories and 70'; of the protein in the diet. Because there is little margin Fur
decreasing per capita consumption, declines in fuodgrain availability can quickly
become disastrous.
27. In general, Bangladesh's population ca', be Considered immobile, but the
few cities provide a strong attraction for th,: rural population. When rural areas
are
Ilit by drought, flood, or cyclone, the flow to the cities becomes a torrent.
The populations of Uanglud',sh's three largest cities have risen rapidly since 1961 :
Dacca's by 193`/,, Khulna's by 439%, and Chittagong's by 139%. Despite rapid
expansion, less than I0'i%% of the population lives in urban areas. There is also some
illegal migration to India. Although a headache for India, migrations since
independence have been far less than during sonic years in the 1960s.
28. The continuing migration to th, cities Complicates the feeding and
employment of the population. The government pays a disproportionate amount
of attention to its urban populations, partly bec.lusc of their great tlcraity and
partly because city dwellers are often Afore: sopi,isticated and politically active.
Low incomes and high t111Cillployment make the cities potential trouble spots. To
Iced large urban populations requires complex food distribution systems,
unnecessary in rural areas.
29. Iauture demand for foodgraill is also affected by the hri-: and income
elasticities -- the degree to which Changes in the price of foodgrains and average
income will affect demand. TWO factors led to tlle exclusion of price elasticity
from consideration:
? Because t')odgrains make tip such a large part of the diet and substitutes
are scarce, it is reasonable to assunr.'' that price elasticity of demand is
low.
? There is no reliable method for predicting changes in Bangladesh's price
structure over the next decade. It is therefore assumed to remain basically
unchanged.
30. The income elasticity of demand for foodgrains, on the other hand,
cannot be ignored, because per capita income levels probably will change
significantly over the next decaue. Sample measurements of income elasticity in
Bangladesh in the period FY 1967-69 by the Harvard University Center for
Population Studies, using several methods of calculation, range from 0.32 to 0.40.
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(An income elasticity of 0.35 means ;Ira) for arch V XI increase in per capita income,
the demand for loodgrains would increase 0.35',"(-.)
Factors Affecting Future Supply
Weather and Climate
31. Rainfall anti hooding are the dominant inllu':nces on Ioodltrain
production, Rainfall changes during any one year can drop foodgrain output by
10';,(', or more. Likewise, highly favorable weather raises outpt,t rapidly. NeverIhelrss
the lack of reliable long-range weather forecasting techniques requires that output
projections assume normal or average weather. Climatologists are developing
long-range forecast techniques, but none is sufficiently advanced to he rrli;rhly
applied to Bangladesh.
32. The annual monsoonal flood is also a determinant of I,ooelgrain
production. Two-thirds of the cultivated area is inundated 10 a depth of more
than one foot, one-third to a depth of three feet, and about I5;';, to a dep1h
of more than six feet. Villagers are accustomed to such flooding, and Ihcir Crops
arc adapted to it. The uncertainties of timing, duration, extent, and depth of' Iloc,ds
result in considerable crop losses, however, as well as in property damage. I ally
Iloods ruin young rice plants in the fields or destroy seed beds. II' the flood is
late and persists while the rice is in flower, yields fall sharply. Floods usually rise
and fall quickly, but if they stand more than four clays. many rice plaints ;"_t.
destroyed. If the flood is too deep, short-stemmed rice plants, even on rClalively
high ground, will drown. If the flood is not deep enough, rice on the high ground
will not get sufficient moisture.
33. Cyclonic storms are another threat, sometimes more damaging than the
annual floods. ropical storms moving up the Bay of Bengal frequently hc'tl 'r the
coast;.,) regions, and the flat delta terrain is defensciess against the tidal waves Ihcir
often accompany them. The strong winds and heavy rains call I1a0ten rice lielc!s
or 50 io 100 miles inland. Crop damage and 'oss of life caused by cyclones Ira,
worsened as population pressure forces nlol_ people into the vulncracl''L coastaii
are a.
34. Bangladesh's flat terrain precludes development of large storage reservoirs
I'm controlling the impact of the floods and/or retaining water for irrigation in
the dry season. Flood control efforts have been restricted to extensive systems
of embankments. The lack of rock and ;'Iay fill makes their construction and
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nlainlclrancc dil.l'icull and costly, 'I'hc ;uca IrOtected by enlhanknlcnls in FY 1973
was 3 million acres, including land protected from saline walcr inundation through
coastal enlhankntcnts. the I iflll Plan calls I'()r (lie completion of anothc?
embapkinent scbenlc to prolcel an additional 2 million acres by the end of
FY 1978.
Irrigation
35. Expansion of all forms of irrigation is essential to increasing the are,l
under cultivation and irltproviyields. While virtually all arable land is already
cultivated, only 3511'%% is crol ,cd more than once a ","car. The climate is amenable
to year-round plant growth, however, and labor for intensive cultivation is abundant.
36. The Fifth Five-yell. Plan emphasizes development of irrigation. The plan
target is to have 0.15 million acres of rice irrigated by modern methods by
IN 1978, with gross irrigated areal rising from an FY 1073 level of 1.27 million
acres to about 4. I3 million acreas (see Table 5). 1131ZI) specialists, however, believe
the FY 1978 goal will not he attainable before the early 1980s. Plan data exclude
acreage irrigated by traditional methods, such as wells drawn by hand or bullock
that ire I?Y 1970 amounted to 1.44 million acres. The area irrigated by such
(method should gradually decline as more modern methods are introduced.
Bangladesh: Gross Irrigated Areal
Thousand Acres
Type of Irrigation
FY 1970
FY 1973
Plan Target
FY 1978
Total
837
1,266
4,132
Government )l ant:;
Low lilt pumps
639
1,050
1.250
Deep tuhcwclls
85
70
I ,144
Shallow tuhewclls
...,
I(r
Major projects
100
80
4h.+
Private investment
13
50
S(I
I. Irrigated acreage that supports more Than one crop per year is counted once for each crop. Arras irrigated
by Traditional primitive means, which amounted to 1.44 million acres in FY 147(), are excluded.
2. Gross irrigated area counts double-cropped acreage once for each crop.
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37. Monsoonal floods make expansion of acreage during the summer season
possible oniy thro'tgh extensive flood control and drainage facilities. Such piojects
are costly vnd require long Ieadtimes. For these reasons, only 45r% of the funding
for water control is for pump and tubewell installations, from which .none than
85r% of irrigation gains in the current five-year plan are to be derived.
38. Groundwater is abundant, but its utilization has lagged, largely because
fragmentation of holdings inhibits the effective use of' low-lift pumps and tubewells.
For tubewells and pumps to be profitable, they generally must irrigate at least
10 acres. Few rice farmers cultivate plots that large, or have the funds and
willingness to consolidate with neighbors. Frw attempts to organize cooper-ltives
have succeeded. Although the pace of groundwater development quickened
following the introduction of I-IYV rice in the mid-1960s, by 1970, only one-seventh
of' the 7 million acres suitable for production dul'ing the dry season hw-o crop
were irrigated.
Low-Lift Pumps
39. Low-lift pump installations have been the most effective form of' irrigation
inh?oduCetl and are expected to continue leading the way. They are small pumps --
usually with a capacity of' two cubic feet per second (cosec) -- used to raise water
from perennial streams and ponds primarily during the winter season. The number
of such pumps has mushroomed from about 1,400 in FY 1961 to mote than 32,900
in FY 1973. During that period, the acreage irrigated per pump declined as niort'
were distributed to individual farmers and relatively fewer to cooperative pump
groups. Data on government-distributed pumps indicate that the number of acres
irrigated per unit of rump capacity dropped from 38 in V)61 to 20 in 1973.
These data are inflated, however, especially for the later years, because individual
farmers strengthened their applications for pumps by exaggerating prospective
lx;netits. Independent surveys suggest that current acreage irrigated per cusec of'
capacity is on the order of 7 to 12. The Fifth Plan projects an increase in efficiency
to 25 acres per Cmsec and an increase in pumps to 45.000 by FY 1978. The
efficiency goal is Unrealistic in that heavy subsidization (80, decreases the
incentive for efficient use.
40. By FY 1973, sonic 2,565 deep tubewells3 had been installed through
public sector programs, with a total command area of' about 200,000 acres.
3. Deep tubcwclls are those made from largely imported technologically complex pumps and engines, of
two cusecs ,r more capacity and sunk by power rigs. Shallow tubcwclls are node of punips and engines
of largely local construction involving a simple technology, with less than one cusec capa ty and sunk by
labor-intensive methods.
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According to the IHRI), actual irrigaled acreage, however, was only about 70,000
acres. Repair and ntaintellance have been major problems. Although extensive
groundwater surveys are yet to be carried out, an estimated 4 million acres have
good potential I'm irrigation by tubcwclls. During the Fifth Plan, some 16,000
deep tubcwclls are to be installed, and the area under deep tubewell irrigation
is expected to increase to 1.1 million acres. The targets seem overly ambitious.
During FY 1973, Ior example, out of a target of 2,400 deep tubewells to be
installed, only 744 were sunk and only 104 of those were commissioned.
41. Shallow tuhewells are relatively cheap and easier to install than deep
tubewells. Because they irrigate only 7-15 acres, organizing farmers to use them
effectively is simpler. Installations, nevertheless, have lagged behind expectations.
Out of an FY 1973 target of 2,000 wells. about 1,000 were drilled and only 153
commissioned. Maintenance is a major problem so that nwiny are out of service
I'or extended periods. During the Fifth Plan, the government intends to install
15,000 shallow tubewells, raising the area they irrigate to 225,000 acres.
Large-Scale Projects
42. Major programs I'or embankment construction and related Ilood-control
measures, channel improvement, and gravity-induced irrigation have been under the
aegis of the Bangladesh Water and Power Development Authority (BWPDA). Its
projects have a history of cost and term overruns and have only moderately
imr, wed rice production.
43. The largest BWPDA project, Ganges-Kobadak, Phase I. was designed to
irrigate 350,000 acres at a cost of $10.5 million. Nearly 20 years later and 10
years behind schedule, it irrigates less than 70,000 acres, continues to be plagued
by major problems, and has cost more than $130 million. The Dacca-Demura
project, irrigating about 10,000 acres, has been somewhat more successful. The
Fifth Plan projects an increase in gross area irrigated by large-scale projects to
463,000 acres by FY 1978. In view of the long leadtimes required, the country's
hick of resources, and rapidly rising costs, attainment of half of this goal will he
a good achievement.
44. Moreover, Indian plans for fluvial development will significantly affect
Bangladesh because its major rivers emanate from India. India's Farakka Barrage,
for example, which is expected to come into operation by the end of 1974, could
withdraw sonic 40,000 cusecs from the Ganges to flush out the port ')f Calcutta.
Withdrawal of this volume during the dry season would leave very little water
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I'm Bangladesh. f?xtravagant Indian use of Ganges waters would reduce irrigation,
inland water transport, and fishing along the Bangladesh portion of (lie river and
increase salt water intrusion, damaging currently productive croplands. Because
there is a pressing need to expand irrigation in India, heightened tension between
India and Bangladesh over riparian rights can be expected.
Agricultural Inputs
45. Accelerating loodgrain output depends heavily on raising rice yields by
increased use of 1-IYVs, fertilizer, and pesticides. The potential for raising yields
of traditional varieties is quite limited. The latter are relatively tall, weak-sicmnlctl
plants. Abundant application of fertilizer produces heavier heads, causing the plants
to fall over or lodge. Increased rice yields, therefore, require a major modification
in rice cultivation.
46. IIYV rice, originally developed by the International Rice Research
Institute in the Philippines, has shorter and stronger stems capable of' sup;:orting
much larger heads. With proper care, yields double those of traditional varieties
are common. I-IYV rice opens up enormous production possibilities but require!;
dillicult adjustments in institutions and cultural practices if the full benefits arc
to be realized. Post and weed control, better land preparation, controlled irrigation,
proper timing in transplanting, and appropriate use of fcrtiiizcrs are all necessary
to take advantage of the new technology. This implies a heavy burden on research,
extension, educational, and credit services.
47. Continuing development is essential to the adaption of* IIYVs to local
conditions. An original 11YV rice, IR8. introduced in 1966 for use in the horo
and curs crops, was not popular because of poor taste, unsatisfactory milling
qualities, susceptibility to local diseases. and a relatively long growing period that
did not easily fit into normal seasonal cultivation patterns. The newer IR20,
introduced in 1970, overcame most of these difficulties. I R 20's short growing period
increases the possibilities for double and triple cropping. On the negative side. I R20
can only withstand 'nundations of up to one foot and therefore is unsuitable for
growth during the monsoon season, except in relatively high areas. Despite
encouraging results, expecially in the horn crop, adoption has been slow because
of the civil war and the persisting economic dislocations.
48. The Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) near Dacca is adapting
IIYVs for domestic use. Technical and material assistance is being provided by
the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines. and the Ford
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Foundation is giving financial support. RRRI has developed a new strain with
improved resistance to disease and pests to replace Iltt, and is ill the advanced
stages of developing a Ilood-resistant substitute For IR20.
49. 'I'aditionally, farfners hove reseeded with stock retained from their
previous clop or purchased from neighbors. The introduction of IIYV rice forced
the development of a different distribution system. Because Yields of IIYV rice
decline when reseeded I*rom field stock, seeds should Lc replenished from seed
farms at least 'avery four years.
50. The Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (13ADC), which
has primary responsibility for procuring, multiplying, processing. and distributing
rice seeds, is seriously deficient. As local research develops new I-IYVs adapted
for conditions in Bangladesh, BADC seed farms must produce enough seed stock
for domestic use. In FY 1973, however, 60% of' the seed distributed by 13ADC
was imported, mostly the IR20 variety. Furtlurmore, the quality of' seed released
by the I3ADC has been so poor that farmers do not trust it. A National Seeds
Board and a Seeds Certification Agency are being established, and a new rice seed
prcj,?ct, designed to overcome some of the problems in the present system, is under
way with IDA financing.
51. IIYV race seeds are sold to farmers at hall their production cost. Demand
has been so strong, however, that the heavy subsid., appears to be an unnecessary
encouragement to promote the adoption of I-IYV rice. The government, therefore,
plans to reduce these subsidies on a phased basis 4uring the Fifth Plan.
52. Use of' manufactured fertilizer in Bangladesh has always been extremely
limited. Silt deposited by he annual floods has kept the land fertile despite
centuri.s of' extensive cropping. But production can be greatly enhanced by
fertilizers, and proper fertilization is essential if the potential of' I-IYV rice is to
be realize'!. In recent years the average fertilizer dose has been 10 pounds of
nutrient per acre -- less than 5;-;, of' the recommended level.
53. Fertilizer use has grown rapidly over the past 15 years. Despite if dou`)ling
of fertilizer prices, fertilizer consumption rose to 381,000 tons in FY 1973, a
35`%% increase over 1970 (see Table 6). The Fifth Five-Year Plan projects a tripling
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Thousand Metric Tons
FY 1965
FY 1970
hY 1973
Target
FY 1974
Fifth Plan
Target
FY 1978
IIIRU
Projec.rion
FY 1978
Total1
96
282
381
473
1,153
871
Urea
72
20(,
274
278
626
592
TSP
19
67
89
156
337
226
MP
4
16
18
39
190
5.3
In terms
r?l'nutlients
45
132
174
219
547
400
Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown.
of' fertilizer consumption; a doubling of fertilizer consumption during this period
would be a major achievement.
54. Domestic plants can produce two of the three fertilizers applied to rice
in Bangladesh -- urea and triple super-phosphate (TSP) -- but not muriate of potash
(NIP). Domestic productive capacity exceeds current levels of fertilizer consumption,
but technical and supply problems have hampered production, necessitating imports.
Urea is produced from abundant domestic sources of natural gas at two plants.
f'mnchuganj with a rated capacity of 100,000 tons and Ghorasal with a rated
capacity of 340,000 tons. The latter, a new plant, will be kept out rf operation
I'm at least a year by an explosion that occurred in September 1974. A third
urea plant, financed by the World Bank, USAID, and others, is to add 450.000
tons to capacity by 1978. Two phosphate plants have a combiii d capacity of
150,000 tons but have been stymied by a world shortage of rock 1:hosphotc.
55. Despite the strength and resilience of fertilizer demand during recent
years, the government continues to subsidize fertilizer sales. World prices for
fertilizer rose dramatically during 1973 and early 1974, but domestic prices
remained fixed, requiring rapid increases in subsidies and imposing a major drain
on financial resources. In April 1974 the government
raised the price of urea by 67%%% and doubled the prices Percent
of TSP and MP. Government subsidy levels, as a percent
Urea TSP MP
of the world market price, during the last two years
are shown in the accompanying tabulation. The new FY 1973 I'! 57 55
urea price more than covers the delivered cost of locally FY 1974 -I6 60 40
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produce(I urea, but it is about 38%% below costs for imported Urea. In L!I'I*CCt, tile
new prices lax dontcslicaily produced urea to subsidize imported fertilizers.
56. Fertilizer imports have been increasing steadily. All MP and TSP is
imporlcd at present. While sonic? TSP will probably be produced in FY 1975, TSP
imports should continue to rise. Urea imports were cut drastically in FY 19'74
when the Ghorasal plant started production. With Ghorasal now shut down, urea
imports will rise again. Even if Five-Year Plan targets are met, Bangladesh will
still have to import all of its MP., one-half of its urea, and three-fourths o1? its
TSP in FY 1978.
57. Despite subsidized intpott~, fertilizers are gonerally in short su ply and
are traded in black markets at up to three tines the c(l'icial price. Transport and
:nt1rkcting deficiencies, as well as smuggling to India, exacerbate the basic unbalance
between supply and clenumd.
58. Pesticides can greatly reduce crop losses to insects that flourish in the
hot and humid climate. With IIYV rice, the returns from protective measures
increase significantly. Protected acreage increased from about 0.3 million spray
acres4 FY 1960 to about 10.0 million spray acres in IN 1970 and to 11.6
million in IFY 1973. The Fifth Plan calls for a tripling in pesticides consumption
by FY 1978.
59. Pesticides are provided free. Charges of up to 50`/% of the cost have been
considered but put off for political reasons. Because they cost noticing, the
chemicals I?requently are wasted or misused. Insufficient consumer education and
the confusing variety of pesticides provided - about 36 dift?erent types, each in
several concentrations - also contribute to misuse. Inappropriate spraying has
destroyed crops, decimated fish populations, and caused deaths in farm families.
60. The average farm size in Bangladesh is about 2.5 acres. Only 4'%% of' the
cultivated land is on farms of 25 acres or larger. Thus, in the Bangladeshi context,
a 10-acre facn is very large. On the other hand, only about 10'%% of' rural households
are landless. For a land-poor country, the ratio of landless to landed households
is strikingly low.
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61. Distribution of ownership is not it good measure of the average size of
farmed plot, however, because, as of 1960, 96'/, of all farm Iand was held in
fragmented holdings. More than one-half of the farms are made up of at least
six separate plots, and one-third have more than 10 plots. These plots rarely are
contiguous. Often they are a mile or more apart. Land reform under such
circumstance would be a horrendous task. Moreover, most farmers are believed
likely to resist change in traditional landholding patterns.
62. The availability of credit in rural areas is inadequate. More than one-half
of' the rural crei::t appears to support current consumption rather than agricultural
production. Institutional credit provides only about 15'%% of' the average farmer's
borrowings, about ogle-half comes from relatives and friends, and 35;x, from
moneylenders and traders.
63. The introduction of new rice varieties and the accompanying increased
requirement for agricultural inputs have increased the strain on institutional credit
facilities. Consequently, the government is attempting to expand Credit institutions
in rural areas. During the Fifth Plan, institutional agricultural credit is targeted
to increase from present levels of' around 300 million takas5 to more than 1.6
billion takas, and the loan recovery rate is to rise from a present level of about
50'%% to 90',', 0. Both targets are unrealistic. Agricultural credit institutions are for
the most part in severe financial trouble. No provision is made in the revenue
budget to guarantee the volume of lending proposed Under the Fifth Plan. Budgetary
Support is essential because the low interest rates on agricultural loans do not reflect
actual costs and risks.
64. The administrative capacity to cope with such institutional problems is
severely limited. The government is preoccupied with simply staying in power' and
maintaining peace in the cities. Leadership and administrative ability in rural areas
are sadly lacking. Bureaucratic red tape discourages progress. Those reluctant to
delegate responsibility are complemented by those reluctant to accept it. The slicer
size of the problems and the limitations imposed by the resources available stifle
change.
Production Shortfall in 1985
65. To forecast Bangladesh's 1985 foodgrain demand and production, a linear
difference equation simulation model was developed. Several values of' the
5. As of I November 1974, the official exchange rate was 8.13 takas to US $l.
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production and popul?tion growth rates were used in the simulation. A description
of the model is contained in the Appendix.
66. During the period FY I950-74, Bangladesh's l'oodgrain production grew
at an annual trend rate of 2.2'%%,.6 For estimating future growth, however, the period
FY 1971-74 was omitted because the disruptions resulting from Bangladesh's
independence struggle arc assumed to have been a one-tiinnC occurrence. In the
period FY 1950-70, the growth trend I'or foodgrain production was 2.6%, a year.
During the 1950s, neglect of Fast Pakistan in general and its agriculture in paurticular?
is reflected in a 0.622, yearly growth trend of fooclgrain output. The growth trend
in the I 960s increased to 2.7%,. Although weather conditions are the most important
factor in foodgrain production in any one year, projections of production over
the long term can with impunity assume a normal distribution cl' weather variations.
While this assumption is not valid I'or many regions of' the world, there is at present
no convincing evidence that the dimensions of the annual monsoon are dependent
Oil weather conditions of previous years. Changes in
government policy, however, can h,ne a profound effect Percent
on the growth ol' the agricultural sector. Therefore, five
alternative growth trend rates for foodgrain production
arc used - each rate implying different assumptions
Pro-
Average
.
A-....
2.0
0.4
1.0
2.5
0.5
2.0
H)
O.(
2.4
3.5
0.7
2.8
4.0
0.}{
3.
likely without some drastic change in the resources and priority accorded to
agriculture by the government.
67. In estimating demand I'or foodgrains in 1985, population growth and
changes in per capita income are considered. Because disagreement exists on
Bangladesh's present population growth rate, both 3.09'/ and 3.3','%% arc used -- the
former being the official estimate of' the Bangladesh government and the latter
being closer to that generally accepted by demographers. These growth rates yield
mid- 1985 populations of 1 1 3 million and 1 15 million, respectively.
68. ('hac',e in per capita income is estimated from two sets of data. First.
to estimate future GNP, the past growth rates of real GDP for East Pakistan during
6. All trend rates are calcu;ated bs' fitting an exponential regression curve and are therefore estimates of
the trend of production rather than absolute production growth rates. By emphasizing the trend of production
instead of the magnitude of increase, the rates presented are more relevant to future projections.
about expansion of acreage and yield increases from the
FY 1974 data base -- and are shown in the
accompanying tabulation. While all these estimates of
future growth of Ioodgrain production are within
Bangladesh's ability, a range of 2.57, to 3.0,;Ic is most
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several periods were examined. During the period l,Y 1950-70, the growth trend
rate of real GDP was 3.0%, with a similar acceleration in the trend rate in the
latter decade -- the trend r,;te for the 1950s was 1.5% and for the 1960s, 4.3'%x.
Second, recognizing that foodgrain production is a major determinant of GDP,
a linear correlation was made to determine the influence that changes in foodgrain
production had on changes in GDP.7 Only the period FY 1950-70 was used because
data on Bangladesh's GDP since independence are unavailable. The growth rates
of real GDP that correspond to assumed growth rates of 1'oodgrain production
arc given in Table 7.
Bangladesh: Projected Foodgrain Situation in FY 1985
Annual Growth Rates
Output
(Percent)
(Million Metric Tons)
Foodgrain
Foodgraiu
Foodgrain
Population
Production
Real GDP
Demand
Production
Gap
(a)
(