SOVIET UNION - EASTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000400110026-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 29, 2004
• Sequence Number: 26
• Publication Date: December 10, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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ncret
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Soviet Union-Eastern Europe
DOS review(s) completed.
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Secret
j 71 25X1
December 10, 1975
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SOVIET UNION ? 2ASTC!, IN EUROPE
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GONTGN7'S
December 10, 1975
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Summit meeting in %Iarnttw. . . . . . . . .
Sofia's Balancing Act
During the Demircl Visit. . . . .
Yugonlavt in Sour Mood Over
Proposed Economic Policies for 1976 . . . . . . 5
Ocaususcu on Emigration 7
USSR Academy of Sciences
t'lectn thew Office:s 9
Soviet Visitor
Highlights During November. 11
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summit Maatinf in Warsaw
General secretary brazhnav, five of his East
European counterparts, and Mongolian party leader
Tsadanbal--all of whom ware attending the Polish con-
green--hold a short "summit" maating in Warsaw on
Decambar 9. Romania, which sent a second-level dole-
gation to the congress, was not represented.
A short communique released by Tans said only
that the participants gave special attention to ways
to implement the European security accord and that
disarmament measures must accompany political relaxa-
tion. Discussion may have focused on pro hnev's pro-
poetal, publicly aired the same day, for pan-European
meetings to be hold on st:ch problems an the environ-
ment and ana tjy.
The leaders al:ao "exchanged opinions" on the
problems of further cooperation between their coon-
tries--language that suggests a variety of proposals
and viewpoints were aired.
Moscow may have waw:od to take advantage of
Ceaunescu's absence by discussing informally with its
loyalist allies such sensitive issues as preparations
for the European Communist Party Conference, polemics
with China, and CEMA integration. Romania holds dis-
senting positions on all these issues. Convening the
meeting without Ceausescu underscores Romanian isola-
tion and may provoke uneasiness in Bucharest.
It is unclear whether this meeting rules out the
possibility of a CL? - A sur^mit in the near f+ituro. An
economic summit had been expected before year's and,
but recent reporting suggests that it has been pushed
back until next year.
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December 10, 1975
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Sofia's Balanc'nq Aot During the I.,arntrol Visit
Sofia gave a particularly wnri't and cordial.
welcome to Turkish Prima Minister Damiral during
his visit to Bulgaria last week. The Bulgarians
triad to use tha trip to demonstrate their "even-
handed" treatment of the Turku and Cracks z'1%d to
enhance the image of party/state leader Zhivkov as
an "international statesman."
The Bulgarians are trying hard to maintain an
equilibrium in their now-found friendship with
Athens and Ankara. They wary, determined to sea
that their reception of Demirel matched the atten-
tion lavished on Greek Prime Minister Caramanlis
last duly and constantly inquired whether rho Turks
were completely happy with all arrangements.
On bilateral economic matters, Sofia appar-
ently pushed for closer cooperation than Ankara
wanted. The two leaders examined transit traffic
problems, focusing on congestion of road and rail
traffic at the Turkish border. Zhivkov first
raised the matter with Demirel duzing their summit
last duly, and the communique summarizing last
week's talks commits both sides to solving the
problems "in the shortest possible time." The
Bulgarians also pressed for formation of a joint
transport company and suggested an agreement on
Black Sea shipping--both of which the Turks side-
stepped. The two sides did, however, agree to
expand cooperation in the area of electrical
allergy.
Zh vkov and Demirel signed a bilateral "joint
declaration of principles," along with the usual
communique. Noting that their views "ccincide on
almost all questions," they called for Israeli
withdrawal from occupied territory, endorsed dis-
armament u;tder strict international control, and
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hailed the process of detente. On Balkan coopera-
tion, they pledged to further rolationn "above all
on a bilateral basis," but supported "in principle"
multilateral initiatives in the interest of the
Balkan states.
On Cyprus, both stated the "positions of
their governments"--a ouphaminm for divergence,
but agreed on the need to prbuervc the "independ-
once, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and non-
alignment" of Cyprus. The communique also wafers
to "honoring the interests of the Turkish and
Greek Cypriots." Ankara may feel it scored a few
points by including this phraoo, since it conforms
to the Turkish position that two separate "communi-
ties" exist. The Bulgarians, however, explicitly
refused to endorse the word "communities," and
the language settled on closely parallels that
contained in other, communiques that Bulgaria has
signed.
Zhivkov and Demirel apparently avoided one
potentially disruptive bilateral issue--Bulgaria's
ethnic Turkish minority. Under the provisions of
a 1956 agreement, Sofia has issued passports to
approximately 40,000 ethnic Turks who wish to
emigrate. Ankara has been unwilling, however, to
issue entry visas because of the economic and
security problems the emigres would create. Demirel
agreed in principle to accept the group and to
hold discussions within a month to work out details.
The US embassy in Sofia points out that Zhivkov
--instead of Bulgarian Premier Todorov--clearly
emerged as the host for the Turkish prime minister.
This was probably an effort to boost Zhivkov's
personal prestige. All regional Balkan prime
ministers or heads of state except Tito have now
visited Bulgaria this year.
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Y! oslavcs in sour Mood Over.
Pruned Economic PUMP for 1976
The annual round of grumbling about Belgrade's
federal budget proposals seems louder than usual thin
year, and even previously privileged tsectors--like
the military--appear to be feeling the pinch.
Belgrade's economic plans for 1976 forecast a
19.3 percent increase in federal spending--wall be-
hind the current annual inflation rate of about 25
percent. All the numbers are not yet known, but the
fact that the major interest groups are complaining
suggests that the slower rate of increased spending
is being applied equitably.
The well-developed northern republics, Croatia
and Slovenia, customarily grouse about being ova.-
taxed for the benefit of the less-developed sout.torn
areas. hgain this year, these two "have" republics
are sharply critical of the federal regime's dicta-
tion of economic policy to the republics, particularly
in setting investment limits for the local economies.
The less-developed regions normally receive sup-
plemental federal funds, in theory to help them catch
up with the north. These developmental funds have
usually assured a measure of protection for the poorer
areas from budget squeezes. This year, however, the
picture has changed. A parliamentary delegate from
Kosovo--the poorest area of Yugoslavia--recently com-
plained that the province bees nearly 300 percent
higher payments into the federal budget this year.
He also said Kosovo's take from special development
funds in 1976 will fall short of the amount forecast
in the long-range development plan.
The Yugoslav Defense Ministry, which over the
past few years has had sizable increases in invest-
ment for its modernization program, also appears to
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be tightening its bolt. A deputy dafanue minister
told the parliament last Friday that the miniutry'u
allotad funds for 1976 would "aneuro L?he prasant,
but not the dosirod level of equipment and modern-
ization."
Evan the trade unions--which in recant years
have made few waves--aro warning about the impact on
employment or slower investment rates by the govern-
ment.
Premier lijcdic's handling of economic policy,
which hen been criticized heavily over the pant year,
may once again coma to the fore. in point of fact,
the decision for a tougher anti-inflationary budget
in 1976 appears to have been thoroughly discussed at
top party levels. The regime's attempt to trim Yugo-
slav expectations may require scapegoats, however,
particularly while the possibility of demagogic ap-
peal by pro-Soviet factions in of norioun r_nnnnrn 4n
Belgrade.
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Ceausescu Emit r tion
President Ceausescu, npoaking to the councils of
ethnic Hungarian and German minorities in Romania on
December 3, delivered the most negative Romanian pro-
nouncements on the subject of emigration since the
Helsinki summit.
The Romanian leader said that many of those who
have already emigrated as wall as those who now wish
to leave are "deserters." He asserted that the place
for every Romanian citizen, Hungarian, Gorman, Serb
or Jew, in "here" building a now society. "We cannot
accept or encourage those who wish to run away, think-
ing they will find a warmer nest somewhere."
Ceausescu's comments do not mean that Bucharest
has changed its policy on Jewish emigration. His
words do, however, reflect the regime's serious con.-
corn over the possible snowball affect on Germans
and others wishing to emigrate as a result of the
Jackson-Vanik legislation, the recent agreement be-
tween Bonn and Warsaw on mass emigration of Germans
from Poland, and those portions of the European oc-
cur !ty documents calling for freer movements of people
and reunification of families.
Ceausescu's comments came on the vivo of West Gor-
man Foreign Minister Genscher's visit to Bucharest
(December 4 and 5). Genscher raised the subject of
reunification of families. Ceausescu's earlier speech
notwithstanding, the final communique ending the
West German's visit pledges both sides to solve hu-
manitarian problems on a basis of mutual trust and
good will.
The director of the Romanian Institute of Polit-
ical Sciences has told an embassy official that Ceau-
sescu's remarks were Bucharest's way of emphasizing
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aylvania.
fortunes of its follow Magyars in neighboring T ran-
that no "menu" emigration would he tolerated. Coau-
noscu also said there will be no further special "con-
cessions" to the minorities. Hera, the embassy fools
the source had in mind the Magyars and their demands
for groetgr use of llungarian language schools and
journals. The Romanian indicated that the location
of now industry and reansignmont of cadres will bu
used to intersperse Hungarians with Romanians. Such
a policy, however, would undoubtedly have nogutivo
repercussions in Budapest, which is ar-.nsitivo to the
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USSR Academy of Sciancon
Blects Now Officers
By electing 72-year-old director of the Kurcha tov
Atomic Energy Institute, Anawroly P. Aleksandrov, an
its now president on Novembol' 25, the USSR Academy of
Sciences resolved an apparently lengthy stalemate.
Alokcandrov is a competent, noncontroversial dark
horse who has clear party backing; he was rumored to
be a good bet almost a weak before his election.
Moscow's scientific circles, however, still favored
the batter known A. P. Kotolnikov, who had served as
acting president following the resignation in May of
venerable Mstislav Keldysh because of ill-health.
Alaksandrov, like Keldysh, is a full member of the
CPSU Central Committee.
The manner of Aleksandrov's election suggests an
increase in party control or at least influence over
the academy. Senior party ideologist Suslov, who had
also attended the May meeting of the academy (the
first time a full Politburo member has attended a
working session of the academy), made a telling point
in his keynote speech when he referred to the Central
Committee's approval of Aleksandrov's candidacy. The
final tally of the secret ballot was not announced.
By contrast, the party evidently either did not
press for the revocation of dissident Nobel Peace
Prize winner Andrey Sakharov's membership or failed
to win its case. Published accounts of the proceed -
i:igs made no mention of Sakharov's case.
New faces on the presidium of the academy
include:
--Nikolay Inozemtsev, 54, director of the
Institute of World Economics and Inter-
national Relations. A Doctor of His-
torical sciences, he became a correspond-
ing member of the academy in 1964 and an
active member in 1958. He was elected
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a candidate member of the CPSU Central
Committee in 1971, and may gain full
voting status at the 25th party can-
gress next February. On the academy's
presidium, he apparently replaces the
liberal, but aging, A. M. I4umyanteev,
whose name was dropped.
--Anatoly Yegorov, 55, rector of the in-
stitute of Marxism-Leninism since early
1974. He worked in the Central Commit-
tee apparatus, rising to deputy head of
the Propagan.:.% Department. In 3.565 he
became chief editor of the party jour-
nal., 1;ommu'iitf, and the following year
became a candidato member o? the Cen-
tral Committee. His name vanished
from the journal's editorial board
after its mid-January 1974 issue amid
signs of ?ontroverey, but the specific
problem has never been identified.
The !'vr,;'nurt c' L vacancy went unfilled
for six months, suggesting that
Yegorov'e removal was sudden and un-
planned. Yegorov had--and presumably
still has--effective protection from
high officials, however, since he ra-
appeared shortly thereafter at the Can-
tral Committee's prestigious Institute
of Marxism-Leninism.
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an increase of two.
Thera are now eight full and candidate Central
Committee members on the academy's 43-man presidium,
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11oyiet Vial?or ~Ii.itMli.ghtiitil(#fbVemlta
The number of th vieta authorised to enter the
Uti fcr commercial purpdsea during November totaled
lit;--a record high for the year and an increase of
more than 11 percent over November 1974. Visitors
during the month included a delegation of agri-
culture officials who came for a pre-shipment
inspection of recent Soviet grain purchases and a
communicationo iroup that visited Ut firma produc-
ing satellite cottmunicationa equipment. Another
delegation was compared of officials associated
with the construction of Moscow's International
Trade Center, a Soviet-US cooperative effort tirst
rropooeci durirg the May 1973 .out it talks.
There ?.oel.'e few high-level representatives of the
Soviet bureaucracy. The rest i -portant were
Anatoly Pout, first deputy minister of the radio
induntry, who headed a delegation that toured Uq
computer and radio equipment firma, and Deputy
Hinintex of PCoct+rement Yury Shilkin, here to
acquaint himaei f with American livestock feed
equipment.
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