EAST ASIA BRIEF 167-754

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010069-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 22, 2001
• Sequence Number: 69
• Publication Date: October 29, 1975
• Content Type: CABLE

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LAOS-THAILAND: THE LAO ARE TAKING A HARSH (LINE TOWARD BANGKOK
AND AP,E REFUSING TO COOPERATE TO REDUCE TENSIONS ALONG THE C0t1MON
MEKONG BORDER.4'
VIENTIANE LAS1' WEEK REJECTED OUT OF F'.AND A, THAI PROPOSAL F0~?
JOINT MEKONG RIVER PATROLS 'i'0 ASSIST IN PRE:VENT'TNG CLASHES ALONG
THE RIVER. THE THAI HAD PROPOSED THIS JOIPJT EFFORT FOLLOWING SEVEP.AL'
BORDER SKIRM:iSHES EARLIER THIS MONTH. COMMENTING ON THE T1-IAI
PRGaOSAL, RADIO PATHET LA4 ASSERTED THAT PROGRESS ON RELATIONS COULD
NOT BE t1ADE BECAUSE BANGKOK HAD?
--FAILED TO RETURN FORMER LAO MILITARY EQUsIPMENT NOW IN
THAILAND;ti'
--ALLOWED LAO NON-COMMUNIST EXILES ^TO CAPRY OUT ACTIVITIES
IN 1'HAILA~vD; 4'
--HELPED THE US TO "CREATE DISTURBANCES IFJ LAOS.4'
VIENTIANE'S POSITION ALt10ST CERTA?:NLY REFLECTS HANOI'S INFLUEPJCC Lit;
ON THE LAO COMMUNISTS. THE tJORTH VIETNAMESE HAVE BEEN CITING THE THAI
REFUSAL TO RETURN MILITARY EQUIPMENT THAT CAPiE FR0t1 SOUTH VIETNAM
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AS A MAJOR STUMBLING BLOCK TO IMPROVED RELATIONS WITH BANGKOK.
PROGRESS ON LAO-THAI RELATIONS WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO AWAIT A RESOLUTION
OF THE IMPASSE BETWEEN HANOI AND DANGKOK. 5'
MEANWHILE, THE LAO SEEM TO Bt ATTEMPTING TO ?RESSURC BANGKOK BY
PLAYING ON THAI SENSITIVITIES REGARDING COMMLRJIST INSURGENCY IN
NORTHEAST THAILAND. A BROADCAST ON OCTOBER 23, AFTER BLAMING THE
THAI FOR ALL BT.LATERAL PROBLEMS, EXPRESSED COPJFTDENCE THAT THAI
"PATRIOTIC AND DEMOCRATIC FORCES^-A EUPi~EMISM FOR THE THAI
COMMUNISTS-WILL EVENTUALLY OVERTHROW THE BANGKOK GOVERNhIENT. A
PATHET LAO CABINET MEMBER ON OCTOBER 23 ADDED FULL TO THE ANTI-THAI
EFFORT BY PUBLICLY EPIPHASIZTPJG HISTORIC LAO CLAIt?1S TO MUCH OF
NORTIEAST THAILAND. IiE SAID THAT ":.OOF;Et', Of~ t.ATEP." THIS AREA WOULD
BE R~CUPJITED WITIi LAOS.S'
//FOR THEIR PAP,T, THE THAI ARE TAKING STEPS TO LESSEN THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CONFLICTS ALONG THE F~EKONG ~:lILL GET OUT OF BAND.
TFIEIR PATROL BOATS HAVE BEEN ISSUED STRICT ~;ULES OF ENGAGE MEPJT,
AND OTHER ARMED FORCES ELEMENTS NAVE BEEN ORDERED tJOT TO ASSIST THAI ,
BOATS INVOLVED TN CLASHES WITfI THE L.AO. {SECRET}//~3 E-2, TMPDET~rI
Dn~E: OCTOBER 29, 1,975
ORIG:
urIIT: OCI/FLO
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1. AiRGENTINA~ THE NEWLY ANNOUNCED ACCORD WITH SOME
ARGENTINE BUSINESS AND LABOR ORGANIZATIONS IS AN ATTEMPT BY THE
GOVERNMENT TO BUY TIME WHILE IT Gi~OPES FOR SOLUTIONS TO SERIOUS
ECONOMIC PROBLEMS.S'
TERMED k\ ^SOCIAL TR~CE,^ THE ACCORD IS AN ATTEMPT TO REVIVE
THE ^SOCIAL PACT" HAMMERED OUT BY THE LATE JUAN PERON IN 1973? THE
LATTER COMMITTED E3USINESS AND LABOR TO LIMIT THEIR RESPECTIVE DEMANDS
IN THE INTEREST OF SOCIAL PEACE.M
THE NEW?ACCORD COMES AMID THE PROTEST STRIKES AND INCREASED
TENSIGN THA1' FOLLOWED PRESIDENT MARIA ESTELA PERON'S A~JNOUNCEMENT
THAT THERE WOULD NOT L3E ANY NEW WAGE HIKES. WORKERS FOR SOME TIME
HAVE BEEN COMPLAINING THAT THE HUGE INCREASES THEY WRESTED FROM THE
GOVERNMENT LAST JUNE HAVE BEEN ERODED BY TNFLATION.4~
THUS FAR, THERE HAVE BEEN FIVE WALKOUTS AT MAJOR AUTO PLANTS
IN BUENOS AIRES AND CORDOBA? BANK WORKERS Ai2E ALSO ON STRIKE.'>r
UNION LEADERS, FEARFUL OF LOSING THE SUPPORT OF THE RANK.
AND FILE, GENEn'ALLY ECHO WORKER SENTIMENT, BUT HAVE AVOIDED A MAJOR
DATE:
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CLASFI WITH ECONOMY M')"~JTSTER CAFTERO. HE ADVOCATES HOLDING THE LINE ON.
IJAuES AivD SEEKS TO '{,';E FUTURE INCREASES TJ GREATER PRODUCTIVITY.4~
CAFIERO HAS ~~TRONG PERONIST CREDENTIALS AND A LONG ASSOCTA-
TION WITH LABOR, Bl~..lx' HE CANNOT STAY IN OFFICE INDEFINITELY WITHOUT
GIVING THE WORKERS 'SOMETHING. HE HAS ALREAD'~ COMPi~OMTSED SOMEWF;AT
BY INCREASING FAh'I~~Y ALLOWANCES.4
LABOR LEADERS WHO STILL SUPPORT PERON COULD BE OBLIGED TO
BREAK WITH HER EVENTUALLY IN THE FACE OF WORKER PRESSURC:. IN THE
EVENT, THE ADMINISTRATION WOULD BE DEPRIVED OF MOST OF ITS REMAINING
ACTIVE SUPPORTEF;S.4'
SAME ADMINISTRATION CRITICS, PARTICU!ARLY AMONG THE hIILITARY,
MAY WELL HOPE F'OR SUCH A DEVELOPMENT, WHICH THEY COULD PRESENT AS
FURTHER PROOF OF THE NEED TO REPLACE THE ADMINISTRATION. FOR EVERY
OFFICER WHO FF_ELS THIS WAYS THERE IS UNDOUBTEDLY ANOTHER WHO FEARS
THE EMERGENCE OF AN UNDISCIPLINEA, LEADERLESS LABOR MOVE~1ENT THAT
WOULD GREATLY COMPLICATE ANY ATTEMPT .BY THE MILITARY TO GOVERN THE
COUNTP,Y . 4~ ''
THE ADMINISTRATION ALSO FACES PROBLEMS IN CONGRESS, WHERE
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OR'POSZTION LEADERS ARE PUSHING FOR AN INVESTIGATION OF CORRUPTIO N
IN HIGH PLACES.
PERONIST POLITICIANS, WHILE TRYING TO STEER THE INVESTIGATION
AWAY FROM THE PRESIDENT, HAVE REVERSED THEIR. EAR~.TER POSITION AN D
VOTED TO PURSUE THE INV!STIGATION. {CONFIDENTIAL}~
2? BRAZIL THE BR~,ZILZAN GOVERNMENT IS ENCOURAGING FOREIGN
COOPERATION WITH TTS NEW STATE WEAPONS INDUSTRY, APPARENTLY IN HOPES
OF MAKING ITS ARMED FORCES SELF-SUFFICIENT AND EXPANDING THE NATION'S
EXPORT MARKET.4~
LAST APRIL, PRESIDENT GEISEL FORf1ALLY PROPOSED THE CREATION
OF A PUBLIC ENTERPRISE TO BE KNOI~IN AS THE WAR MATERIEL INDUSTRY THAT
COULD ALSO PROVIDE INCENTIVES FOR INDUSTRIAL GRO~ITH AND ADVANCE
STRATEGIC RESEARCH AND DEVELOPME~:T. IN JUSTIFYIfIJG THE ACTION, ARMY
f1INI~'TER SYLVIO FROTA EMPHASI7_ED THAT STRONGER CENTRALIZED GOVERN-
MENT CONTROL IS NEEDED BECAUSE "PRIVAT'~~ ENTERPRISE, DEVELOPIfJG WITH-
OUT A CLEAR AND FIXED ORIENTATION, HAD NOT ~3EEN EPIOUGH."~,
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT IS ALREADY HAVING A
MAJOR IMPACT. DURING THE PAST YEAi; MORE THAN 100 DIRECTORS OF LARGE
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FIRMS SPECIALIZING IN THE PRODUCTION OF MILITARY EtdUIPMENT HAVE
VISITED BRAZIL TO EXPLORE INVESTMENT POSSIBIEiTIES? BRAZIL HAS
ALREADY CONCLUDED OVER $1C0 MILLION IN EXPORT CONTRACTS, INCLUDING
MAJOR CREDIT DEALS WITH CHILE AND LIBYA. A .RECENT ARTICLE IN 'fHE
INFLUENTIAL DAILY JORNAL DO BRAZIL EX~'RESSED SPECIAL INTEREST IN
COOPERATING WITH THE WEST GERMANS, STATING "WE HAVE AN IDEAL
COMMUiNTTY OF INTEREST WITH GERMANY??.BRAZIL WILL TAKC ADVANTAGE OF
EXCELLENT GERMAN EXPERTISE IN THE PRODUCTION OF ARMS, INCLUP?;NG
SOPHISTICATED MISSILES, WITH 'A GUARANTEED MARKET' ASSURED."~'
ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS MAY EE AS SIGNIFICANT AS STRATEGIC
ONES. THE GOVERNMENT IS ATTEMPTING TO BOLSTER ITS SAGGING BALANCE-
OF-~'AYMEN'fS POSITION, AND AN UPSWING IN WE~:"'ONS EXPORTS WOULD PRO-
VIDE NEEDED FOREIGN EXCf~ANGE? ALTHOUGH BRAZIL WILL PROBABLY STILL
NEED TO IMPORT SOPHISTICATED WEAPONS FOR SOME TIME, AN EXPANSION TN
EXPORTS OF SMALL AR(`1S, MOTOR VEHICLES, ? AND TRAINER AIRCRAFT WOULD
RESULT IN VALUABLE FEEDBACK FROM FOREIGN BUYERS THAT MIGHT SPEED THE
TRANSITION TO SELF-SUFFICIENCY. {I:ONFIDENTIAL} E-2 IMPDET?~I
25X1A 25X1A
DATE:OCTOBER 29, 1975 DOiyDO
ORIG:
unlr: OCI/UHD SD
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MEA BRIEF b67-?S.M
1. SPANISH SAHARA: MOROCCAf~ FOREIGN MINISTER LARAKI, ACCOPirANTE A
THIS TIME B`t HIS MAURITANIAN COUNTERPART, RETURNED TO MADRID TUESDAY
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TALKS ON SPANISH SAHARAB?'r'
THE GlJICKENING PACE OF DIPLOMATIC CONTACTS AND THE INCLUSION OF
MAURITANIA, WHICH IS ALIGNED WITH MOROCCO ON THE SPA~;~SH SAHARA
DISPUTE, SUGGEST THAT NEGOTIATIONS WITH SPAIN ARE MAKING PROGRESS.
AN UNDERSTANDING MAY BE NEAR TF1AT WOULD PARTITION SPANISH SAHARA
BETWEEN MOROCCO AND MAURITA;VIA. AND GRANT SPAIN MILTTA~ZY BASES AND
VARIOUS ECONOMIC CONCESSIONS.4'
THE THREE COUNTRIES HAVE REASON TO SETTLE THE SAHARA DISPUTE
QUICKLY. MOROCCO AND MAURITANIA WOULD LIKE A NEGOTIAT~:D FAIT ACCOMPLI
IN HOPES OF FaEHyii:G OFF A DEBATE ON SELF-DETERMIl~ATION FOP. THE
DISPUTED 9'ERRTTOkY IN THE Uri GENERAL ASSEMBLY THIS FALL. SPAIN
WOULD LIKE TO SETTLE THIS COPJTENTIOUS ISSUE BEFORE JUAN CARLOW
ASSUMES POWER TO SPARE HIS NEW GOVERNMEPJT AN ADDITIONAL BURDEN
?AND? FORESTALL OR AT LEAST LIMIT THE SI,'_E OF MOROCCO' S PLANNED
MASS MARCH INTO ~flANISH SAHARA.4'
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HAT THE SPANISH MILITARY '
IS CONLERNED THAT IF KING HASSA. GOES THROUGH WITH HIS PLANNE D
MARCH OF 350,000 PEOPLE, THE. SITUATION WILL GET OUT OF Ct1NTR(3L?
MADRID MIGHT ALLOW A SMALL NUMBER OF MOROCCANS TO MAKE A SYMBOLIC
ENTRY INTO SPANISH SAHARA, BUT THE MLLITARY HAS TNDICwTED IT I^iILL
NOT ALLOW LARGE NUMBERS OF MARCHERS TO CROSS THE BORDER AND
CONTINUE ON TO EL AAIUN.//4'
//THE MILITARY REPORTEDLY HAS A DETAILED PLAN WHICH IT
INTENDS TO IMPLEMENT SHOI"LD LARGE NUP1BEFS OF MARCHERS CROSS
THE F30RDER? SPANISH BORDER GUARDS RE"PORTEBLY MOULD EVACUATE
THE DOF;L`ER AREA SHORTLY BEFOP,E THE MOROCCANS ARRIVED;
PROPAGANDA WOULD THEPJ BE DTSTRIQUTED TO DISCOURAGE THE MARCHERS
FROM CROSSING. IF THE MOROCCANS PERSISTED, THE SPANISH
hii~tTARY WOULD ATTEMPT TO DISSUADE THE MARCHERS BY MAKING
APPEALS OVER LOUDSPEAKERS AND USING TEAR GAS. IF 'THE MARCHERS
REACHED A POINT SOME 18 TO 24 MILES INTO SPAPJISH-HELD TERRITORY,
HOWEVER, THE SPANISH WOULD ESTABLISH A LINE OF MILITARY
RESISTANCE APJD USE FORCE TO STOP THE MARCHERS. THE MILITkRY
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REPORTEDLY FEELS THAT IT CANNOT PERMIT THE MARCHERS TO
ENTER EL AAIUN BECAUCE ?;T WOULD BE UNABLE TO CONTROL THE
EXPECTED VIOLENCE.Iif//4'
THE THREE GOVERNMENTS MAY SEEK A SECURITY COUNCIL
RESOLUTION ENDORSING WHATEVER ARRANGEMENTS THEY ARE ABLE TO
WORK OUT, SF'a~IN HAS CONSISTENTLY SOUGHT UN APPROVAL FOR ANY
ARRANGEMENTS FoR THE DECOLONIZATION OF SPANISH SAHARA.
MOROCCO, FOR ITS PART, IS BEGINNING TO REFER TO ITS ONGOING
CONTACTS WITH MADRID IN THE CONTEXT OF~THE SECURITY COUNCIL
RESOLUTION OF LAST WEEK THAT CALLED ON ALL PARTIES TO BEGIN
A DIALOGUE.Y
ALGERIA, WHICH OPPOSES A TURNOVER OF THE TERfZiTORY T~
MOROCCO AND MAURITANIA, REMAINS THE CHIEF STUt16LING BLOCK
TO AN EARLY RESOLUTION OF THE DISPUTE. ACCOP.DTNG TG AN
ALGIERS RADIOBROADCAST, FOREIGN MINISTER BOUTEFLIKA, WHO IS
STILL AT THE UIJ, SENT A MESSAGE TO SECRETARY GENERAL WALDHEIM
LAST WEEKEND ENDORSING HIS CONSULTATIVE MISSION TO MOROCCO,
MAURITANIA, ALGERIA, AND SPAIN, WHICH ENDED TUESDAY.
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BOUTEFLIKA MARE TT CLEAR, HOWEVER, THAT WALDHEIM SHOULD CONFINE
HIMSELF TO SEEKING A REDUCTION OF TENSIONS IN THE AREA AND
THAT THE ,ADOPTION OF APPROPRIATE MEASURES FOR DECOLONIZATION
SHOULD BE I.~FT TO THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY. HE ADDED THAT THESE
MEASURES MUST BE IN ACCORD WITH A RECENT REPORT BY A UN
FACT-FINDING GROUP AND AN ADVISORY OPINION BY THE INTERNATIONAL
COURT OF JUSTICE, WHICH HAD THE EFFECT OF WEAKENING MOROCCO'S
CLAIt1 TO THE TERRITORY. {SECRET NOFORN} E-2, IMPDET.rI
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EUROPEAN BRIEF 167-75.4'
1. PORTUGAL THE PORTUGUESE GOVERNMENT HAS TAKEN FURTHER
STEPS TO ASSERT TTS AUTHORITY TN THE MAKE OF PRIME MINISTER
AZEVEDO'S SUCCESSFUL TRIP TO PORTO LAST WEEKEND.4'
THE FIRST CRACKDOWN BY THE MILITARY ON COMMUNIST-BACKED SEIZURES
OF ~'RIVATELY OWNED FARMS OCCURRED ON MONDAY NORTH OF LISBON WHEN A
CAVALRY U~JIT ARRESTED TEN FARMS G10RKERS' UNION SQUATTERS. THE
SECURITY FORCES SAID THE WORKERS WOULD BE PROSECUTED FOR THE ILLEGAL
POSSESSION OF M.LITARY FIREARMS. AN AMNESTY FOR TURNING IN SUCH
FIREARMS EXPIRED ON SATURDAY. AN ATTEMPT BY OUTSIDERS TO OCCUPY
ANOTHER FARM IN THE AREA EVENTUALLY WAS ABANDONED?4'
MONDAY'S ACTION BY THE MILITARY TS SIGNIFICANT TN LIGHT OF TH E
COMMUNIST^INSPTRED SETZURt~ OF OVEi2 HALF A MILLION ACRcS OF PRIME
FARMLAND IN SOUTHERN PORTUGr,~ SINCE SUMMER. BECAUSE MUCH OF THE
EXP~ZOPRTATED LAND LIES FALLOW AND LARGE NUMBERS ~F LIVESTOCK HAVE
BEEN SENSELESSLY SLAUGHTERED THE TAKE-OVERS COULD CONFRONT THE
GOVERNMENT WITH SERIOUS AGRICULTURAL Sf~ORTAGES BY NEXT YEf~R.4'
ALSO ON MONDAY, LEFT-WING AEf10NSTRATORS WERE OUSTED FROM THE
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CI'VII_ GOVERNOR'S OFFICES TN FARO, IN THE SOUTHERN ALGARVE RESORT
AREA, AFTER THEY WERE OCCUPIED TO PROTEST THE RECANT REMOVAL OF THE
PRO-COMMUNIST GOVERNOR. SOLDIERS RUSHED TO THE SCENE AFTER A COMBINED
ASSAULT ON THE OFFICES BY THE aOCIALISTS AND POPULAR DEMOCRATS
RESULTED IN A BRAGIL IN L?lHICH TEN PEOPLE WERE TN~URED.M
IN ANOTHER INCIDENT SOUTH OF LISBON, AN INFANTRY REGIMENT
INTERVENED TO PREVENT VIOLEPJCE WHEN LEFTIST FARM WORKERS OCCUPIED
THE LOCAL FARMERS' GUTLD.4~
THE PORTUGUESE ARMY, AND PARTTCULAf?LY CHIEF OF STAFF FABIAO, HAVE
COME IN FOR HARSH CRITICISM BECAUSE OF LAX DISCIPLINE AND THEIR
FAILURE TO ENSURE PUBLIC ORDER. AN ARMY SPOKESMAN SAID MONDAY THAT
18 PERCENT OF T~-iE ARMY WILL BE DE'MOBTLIZED [11HTLE FABIAO IS AWAY THIS
WEEK ON A VISIT TO WEST GERMANY.'
ON THE ECONOMIC FRONT, THE GOVERNMENT HAS ANNOUNCED A SERIES OF
MEASURES IPJTENDED TO STOP THE FLIGHT OF EAPITAL AND STRENGTHEN THE
ESCUDO. FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRANSACTIONS BY pORTUGU~SE NATIONALS HAVE
BEEN SEVERELY LIMITED AND VIOLATORS FACE PRISON TERMS RANGING FROM
TWO T(~ EIGHT YEARS.Y
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MEACJWHTLE, THE APPROACHING END THIS WEEK Of"' THE GOVERNMENT-
SPONSORED AIRLIFT OF ANGOLAN REFUGEES COULD SPELL ADDITIONAL
PROBLEMS FOR AZEVEDO'S GOVERNMENT NEARLY 200,(]QU RETURNEES WILL HAVE
RcACHED pORTUGA'. BY OCTOBER 31. THE INCREASINGLY EMBITTERED AND
FRUSTRATED REFUGEES H~.VE REFRAINED FROM TAKING DIRECT POLITICAL
ACTION, REPORTEDLY FOR FEAR G? REPRISALS AGAINST FRIENDS ANB
RELATIVES STILL TN ANGOLA. LAST~WE~KEND, HOWEVER, A GROUP BELIEVED
ASSOCIATED ~IITH THE REFUGEES C.LATMED RESPONSTBTLTTY FOR A BOMB
ATTACK ON THE LEFT-WING ANGOLAN CULTURAL ENTER. THE GROUP, WHICH
BLAh1ED THE GOVERNMENT R~:FUGEE AGENCY FOR THE PLIGHT OF THE RETURNEES,
SAID IT HAS DECTDEA TO "ANSWER FORCE WITH FORCE AND VIOLENCE WITH
VIOLENCE."
//
ANOTHER REFUGEE GROUP, CALLED THE LIBERATION FRONT OF PORTUGAL,
SENT A DELEGATION TO THE LAS Ef1oASSY LAST WEEK TO ASK FOR ARMS,
/~
MONEY, AND ORGANIZATIONAL SUPPORT. {SECRET}4'
2. LEBANON: THE FIGHTING TN BEIRUT'S COMf1ERCTAL AREA WkS
' HEAVY THROUGHOUT TUESDr1Y? BY LATE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, THE,PHALANGIST
MILITIA SE ~:MED TO F3 t= Cy T;~E DEFENSIVE AND WAS WITHD,AWING FROf1
DATE:
ORIG:
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Approved For Release 2001/08/21 :CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010069-4
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THE LUXURY HOTEL DISTRICT TT SEIZED OVER THE WEEKEND 5'
PRIME MINISTER KARAMI TUESDAY ANNOUNCED FORMATION OF A
TIEN-MAN "SECURITY COMMITTEE" TO PU';' INTO EFFECT A CASE-FIRE
TII~IAT WAS CALLED LAST SUNDAY? HE SAID THE GFOUP, WHICH INCLUDES THE
C~DUNTRY'S MAJOR POLITICAL LEADERS, WOU!_D BE MEETING TN HTS OFFICE
UNTIL THE FIGHTING STGPS. THE COMMITTEE WILL PROBABLY NOT SUCCEED.
MOST MEMBERS HAVE EsEEN UNABLE TO REACH THE PRIME MINISTER'S t?FFICE
BECAUSE OF CONTINUED FIGHTING, AND ONE, ~CCIALIST LEADER KAMAL
JUMBLATT, HAS SAID HF.. WILL NOT PARTICIF'ATE.S'
JUMBLATT DISMISSED THE NEW COMMITTEE AS AN OUTDATED ATTEMPT
AT "TRIBAL RECONCILIATIO'V." HE INSISTED THAT LEBANON'S PROBLEMS
MUST BE SOLVED THROUGH FUi~DAMEiJTAL REFORI1S. DESPITE THIS ATTACK AND
HIS MANY OTHER POLITICAL DIFFERENCES WITH KARAMI, JUMBLATT ALMOST
CERTAINLY PREFERS THAT THE PRIME MINISTER RESIN EFFORTS BY RTGHT-
WING CHP.ISTIANS TO FORCE HTS RESIGPJATI(`N ? 4'
A SHOLuDOWN BETWEEN KARAMI AND INTERIOR MINISTER SHAMUN WAS
AVERTED TUESDAY L;h~EN PARLIA!1ENT AGAIN FAILED TO MUSTER A QUORUM.
IN FACT, AN AIDE TO PHALANGIST LEADER JUMAYYTL WAS KILLED YESTERDAY
DATE:
ORIG:
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IN THE CONTINUING FIGHTING AROUND THE PARLIAHEMT BfJTLDING? HIS
DEATH WILL LEAD TO PHALA~VGIST CALLS FOR REVENGE .AGAINST THE FAR
LEFT AND WILL REINFORCE JUMAYYTL'S REFUSAL TO MAKE POLITICAL
CONCESSTONS? {SECRET}M
3. YUGOSLAVIA: BELGRADE'S STRONGEST CAMPAIGN AGAINST PRO-
SOVIET SUBVERSIVES .IN AT LEAST FOUR YEARS CONTINUES TO GAIN
MOMENTUM. A LOCAL OBSERVER REPORTS THAT 123 COMTN-
FORMISTS ARE NOW IN YUGOSLAV JAILS .AWAITING TRTAL?4'
DENUNCIATIONS OF THE COMINFORMISTS ARE POUP,INL
IN FROM EVERY CORNER OF THE COUNTRY. THE PARTY
WEEKLY KOMMUNTST SET OFF THE ANTI-STALINIST CAMPAIGN
TWO WEEKS AGO Wl.'TH A STINGING ATTACK ON "000NTEF-
R1=VOLUTIOlVAf7IES AND "TRAITORS" WHO COVERTLY UNDEF.MTNE
THE COLNTRY'S INDEPENDENCE AND SOCIAL SYSTEM. TOP
LEVEL PARTY AND GOVERNMENT SPOKESMEN HAVE FOLLOIlED
UP WITH SPECIFIC REFERENCES TO THE DESIRES OF THE
SUBVERSIVES TO ATTACH YUGOSLAVIA TO TfIE SOVIET "CAMP."
MANY OF THESE HINTS OF SUS~TCION ABOUT MOSCOW'S AT-
DATE:
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TTTUDE TOWARD THE TITO REGIME HAVC BEEN 9ROADCAST TO
THE USSR?M
THE ANTI-STALINIST HUE AND CRY DERIVES FROM BEL-
GRADE'S AWARENESS THAT THE F~11_TERINiS ECONOMIC PER-
FORMANCE THIS YEAR COULD CREATE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A
SMALL BUT HIGHLY ORGANIZED GROUP--LIKE THE COMIN-
FORMISTS--TO UNDERMIPJE THE TITO SYSTEM. WARY THAT
THE GROUP MTGhIT BE GATHERING STRENGTH FOR A STRGNG
POST-TITO DRIVE FOR POWER, TWE REGIME APPEARS DETER-
MINED TO IMPRISON ALL THE POTENTT.AL STALINISTS TT
CAN FIND BEFORE TT IS T00 LATE.4'
BEHIND THIS PASSIONATE REACTION LIES A DEEP-
SEATED FEAR THAT MOSCOW'S BENEVOLENCE TOWARD BELGRADE
OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS ONLY MASKED AN ULTIMATE ~~-
VIET PLAN TO RESTORE YUGOSLAVIA, BY WHATEVER MEANS,
TO THE SOVIET ORBIT. THE CURRENT EASING OF THE RE-
GIME'S USUAL STRICTURES AGAINST ANTI-SOVIET PROPA-
GANDA IS APPARENTLY MEETING AN OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
EXT:
--? -?~4pp~o~ed For Release 2001/08~~?4?~-?EI~4?F2DP86T00608R000300019~669~'4?T'~^ ^?"~""
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0069-4T
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INOrM DISSEM BY:
No INOr>I
~r?ru~nYO PER
RESPONSE FROM THE MASSES. LAST FRIDAY, KOMf1UNIST
STERVLY WARNED THOSE WHO "SLANDER^ HONEST COh!"IUf~ISTS
AS '~COMINFOR~ITSTS" THAT ONLY THE SUBVERSIVES STAND
TO GAIN FROM THE SPREAD OF DOUBTS ABOUT THE.LEADERSHIP?~'
UNTIL RECENTLY, THE D~TATLS OF THE CONSPIRACY,
ITS SIZE, AND PLANS FOR TRIALS WERE KEPT UNDER ti~RAPS,
BUT THE PARTY AND FRONT GROUPS ARE NOW FILTERING OL~T
INFORMATION WHICH IMPLIES THAT SOME SENTENCES MmY BE
DOLED OUT SOON. ~ LTHOUGH THEME ARE OCCASIONAL P.UMORS
OF A PUBLIC SHOU1 TRIAL, INSIDERS ARE NOW SUGGESZTNG
THAT THE' TRIALS WILL BE HELD I.N CAMERA AND THAT THE
RESULTS WILL BE CAFEFULLY USED TO FEED THE CURRENT
"VIGILANCE" CAf1P.ATGN ? 4'
ACCORDING TO LOCAL OBSERVERS, THE BELGRADE DIPLO-
MATIC CIP.CUTT IS ABUZZ WITH SPECULATION ABOUT A NEW
DOWNTURN TN RELATIONS WITH MOSCOW, BUT A FULL BREACH
IS f~OT EXPECTED. SO LONG AS BELGRADE DOES NOT IN-
DULGE IN OVERTLY ANTI-SOVIET ALLEGATIONS AND MOSCOW
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
EXT:
_?____.
_
~
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o v Flu?
HOLDS ITS ANGER TN CHECK, THE TWO COUNTRIES ARE LIKELY
TO 11ATNTATN THEYR UNEASY RELATIONSHIP. {CONFIDENTIAL}
unTE: OCTOBEk 29, 1975
ORIG:
UNIT: OCI~FLO
ExT: 1566
25X1A
10069-4
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