EUROPEAN BRIEF 166-75.4

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010068-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 22, 2001
• Sequence Number: 68
• Publication Date: October 28, 1975
• Content Type: CABLE

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u ,. - ? --? ?- ??- ? u Trt 1111 WORD ?'ALIGN" TQ REGISTER HERE-~I I_l~^_
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EUROPEAN BrZIEF I,66-`7S.M ?
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1. USSR-EGYPT: THE USSR ISSUED T._ STRONiGEST ATTACK TO DATE
4N EGYPTIAN POLICIES AND SINAI I? ON THE EVE OF PRESIDENT SADAT'S
ARRIVAL TN THE UNITED STATES??'r`
.PRAVDA ON SATI.IRDAY, IN AN ARTICLE SIGNED '"~OBSERVIER," INDICATING
TOP-LEVEL KkE11LTN ENDORSEMENT, BITTERLY REBUTTED SADAT'S
ALLEGATIONS OF LESS THAN WHOLEHEARTED SOVIET DIPLOMATIC AND MILITARY
SUF'POR'f . THE Af2TTCLE SEEMED AIMEB AT GETTING MOSCOW' S CASE ON i'HE
RECORD :AND DISCREDITING SA.DAT'S ARGUMENTS FOR L~'#ALING WITFI THE US .'r
PRA~/DA IIIAS PARTICULARLY RESENTFUL ABOUT EGYPTIAN PUBL~:C
CP,:LTTCTSM OF SOVIET MILITARY AID, SAYING IT WAS "UTTER DISTOP,TION"
TO SUGGEST THAT ALL MOSCOW HAD SENT TO EGYPT D13P.TNG TfIE 1973 WAR
WERE "SEVERAL BAGFULS OF SPARE PARTS.^ TT ALSO DEMONSTRATED
CONTINUING SOVIET NERVOUSNESS ABOUT THE FJTURE OF THE SOV:[ET-EGYPTIAN
TREATY, SAYING irIAT SADAT HTI1SELF HAD CALLED FOR THE kCCORD?4
7PJ AN APPARENT ALLUSION TO SADAT'S PLANS TO? DISCUSS L'S MILITAfY
ASSISTANCE DURING H:iS WASHINGTON VTSTT, MOSCOW REMINDED TIDE EGYPTIANS
.HAT THEIR CXPERTEiJCE WITH THE b1EST TN THE e.ARLY .i,950S DEMONSTRATES
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THAT "ONE WOULD HARDLY EXF;ECT IMPERIALIST STATES TO SHOW CONCERN
FOR BUILDING EGYPT'S MILITARY STR`NGTH."~,
DESPITE ITS SCATHING TINE, THE ARTICLE DID NOT ATTACK SADAT
BY NAME AND KEPT THE D001~ OPEN FOR BETTER SOVIE'>;-EGYPTIAN TIES.
PRAVDA, HOWE~lER, CLEARLY PUT THE BURDEP~ ON EGYPT' FOR INiTIATTNG
SUCH AN IMPROVEMENT, SAYING THAT COOPERATION CAf1JNOT DEVELOP IF UNE
PARTY FOLLOWS PGLTCTES T~-iAT UNDERMINE IT?4'
IN THE CONTEXT O. ATTACKING ~SADAT'S RELTA:~~CE ON WASHINGTON FOR
A MIDDLE EAST SETTLEMENT, THE ;,RTTCLE ISSUED (iOSCOW'S MOST
AUTHORITATIVE EXPOSITION OF ITS OPPOS TTTON TO SINAI II . ALTHOUGH
TOUGHL`f WORDED, THE STATEMENT ESSENT:CALLY EXPRESSED PUBLICLY WHAT
THE SOVIETS HAVE BEEN SAYING PRIVATELY ? TT PARTICULARLY CHASTISES
THE PROVISION FOR US OBSERVEPS IN THE STNAT, C ;CLING IT "FRAUGHT
WITH FAR-REe.CHING, AANGEPOUS CONSEQUENCES."
ALTHOUGH PRAVDA REITERATED T=~fE USEFULNESS ~OF THE GENEVA
CONFERENCE AS THE FORUM FOR RESOLI,'ING THE CONFLICT, TT DTD N9T
COMPLETELY REJ_CT FUP,THER PARTIAL STEPS TOWAP,r ~" SETTI_EME~JT UNDER
THE GENEVA UME3RELLA? THE I1IPRESSION CREATED IS ~ t1AT MOSCOW DOES NOT
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CLOSE QUT ANY aRACTTCAL OG~TIONS FOR THE NEXT STEP IN MIDDLE EAST
DIPLOMACY, kS LONG AS IT TS UNDERTAKEN WITH SOVIET PARTICIPATION.
{CONFIDENTIAL}4'
LEB 4NON : THE FIGHTING TPJ BEIRUT ENTERED A ;VEW STAGE OVER
Ti-IE WEEKEND, AS CHRISTIAN A.VD MUSLIM EXTREt1ISTS FOR THE FIRST TTt1E
ENGAGED IN SUSTAINED 6ATTLES FOR CONTROL OF HERETOFORE NEUTRAL AREAS
IN CENTRAL BCIRUT. PREVIOUSLY, THE TWO SIDES HJIA'rELY '.NU WIDELY DISREGA?DED.M
AT THE CABINET MEETING, KARAMT AND INTERIOR MINISTER SHAMUN
REPORTEDLY ARGUED INCONCLUSIVELY ABOUT WHETri~R TO ALLOW THE LEBANES
ARMY TO PLAY A MORE FORCEFUL ROLE. SO FAR, THE ARMY HAS BEEN USED
ONLY TO SECURE TFiE ROAD FROM THE CITY CENTER TO THE INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT, TO CONTROL SELECTED GOVERNIMENT AUJ.LDTNGS AND INSTALLATIONS
IN BEIRUT, AND IN A VtRY LTMI?TED WAY TO REPLACE INTERNAL SECURITY
SERVICE UNITS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CTTY?M
THE SPRt_AD 0. FIGHTING OVER THE WEEKEND APPARENTLY REPRESENTED
ONLY THE CONTINUING DETERIORATION OF THE GENERAL SECURITY Si'fUA~'IOPJ
F \THER THAN THE INTf;OD~1CTTON OF ANY ADDTTTOtJAL GROUPS INTO THE
H' STILITIES ?'~
PARLIAMENT TRIED TWICE OVER THE WEEKEND TO CONVENE, BUT FAILED
FOR LACK OF A QUORUM. MANY MEMBERS STAYED AWAY BECAUSE OF THE
SECURITY PROBLEM, OTHERS PROBABLY TO 'FORESTALL A WIDELY ANTICIPATED
PUBLIC SPLIT BETWEEN KARAf1I AND ~HAMUN.4'
THE PRIME MINISTER HAS BEEN _TNCHING TOWARD AN OPEN CHALLENGE
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TO SHAMUN AND PRESIDENT FRANJTI'AH, AND ANY COMPIREHENSTVE PARLTAMENTAR
DEBATE COULD END IN A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE TN KAF~,AMT OR EVEN rNTRO-
DUCTION OF A MOTION DEMANDING FRANJIYAH'S RESIGm1ATI0N?4'
THE MAJORITY OF THE PARLIAMENT TS CHRISTIAN, BUT KARAMT MAY NOIJ
BE PREPARED TO GAMBLE THAT HE WOULD WTN A CONFT~DENCE VOTE ? AT THE
SAME TIME, HE h1AY BELIEVE HE COULD FORCE A SHOW:>:OWN THAT WOULD, AT A
MINIMUM- PROMPT MUSLIMS AND LEFTISTS, INCLUDING SOCIALIST LEADER
KAMAL JUMBI,ATT, TO RALLY BEHIND HIM. HE MAY SEE THIS AS A WAY TO
OBLT~~ MODERATE CHRISTIANS TNDTRECTL`r TO CRITICIZE FRANJTYAH BY
ACKNOWLEDGING THAT KARAMT IS PREFERABLE TO ANY LIKELY ALTERNATZVE?
DESPITE HIS INABILITY TO END THE FIGHTING, KARAMT APPARENTLY RETAINS
THE IMPORTANT BACKING OF THE SYRIAN GOVERNMENT ANll THE PALESTINIAPJS?
HE HAS STEADILY GAINED STRENGTH AMONG LEBANESE AT FRANJIYAH'S
EXPENSE. {SECRET}4'
3. PORTUGAL ~ THE GOVERNMENT APPEARS TO WAVE EI1ERGED FPOh1 THE
EVENTS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WITIi TTS AUTHORITY SOMEWHAT STRENGTHEPJED ,
DESPITE A SERIES OF TERRORIST 60f1BTNGS AND A SPATE OF COUP RUh10RS?4'
ON HIS ARRIVAL SATUf;DAY IN PORTO, ~.JHERE HE WENT TO SHORE UP THE
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REGIONAL MILITARY COMMANDER IN THE FACE OF LEF'tYS1' ATTACt;S, PRIt1E
MINISTER AZEVEDO SAT. L` THAT AUTHORITY D,ND DI~CTPLINE WOULD BE
REINSTATED TN PORTUGAL "AT ANY PRICE." ALTHOUGH AZEVEDO'S WORDS AT
THE PRO-GOVERNMENT RALLY WERE NOT AS UNCOMPROMTSItdG~, THE PRIME
MINISTER'S TRIP TO PORTO SIGNALED HTS STRONG SUPPORT FOR THE NORTHERN
COMMANDER'S EFFORTS TO RESTORE MILITARY DTSCIQLYNE. SUCF~ EFFORTS WERE
UNDERMINED EARLIER THIS MONTH BY ARMY CFIIEF OF STAFF E~ABIAO WHEN HE
ACQUIESCED TO THE DEMANDS OF REBELLIOUS SOLDIERa.4'
THE E'RIME MINISTER SAID HIS VTSI~P TO PORTO WAS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES TO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH PF;ESUt1ABLY HF WILL USE
TO MOBILIZE POPUL(1R SUPPORT FOR HTS GOVERNMENT. ALTHOUGH THE
COMMUNISTS URGED THETP, SUPPORTERS NOT TO ATTEP!D AZEVEDO'S RALLY
NIS APPEARANCE IN PORTO DREW ABOUT ],OD,DDO PEOP~.E. THIS NUf1LER
CONTRASTS SHARPLY WITH AN ANTI-GOVERtJf1EtJT DEf10P1STRATION LAST WEEK
IN LISBON, WHICH DF;EW ONLY A80UT ],3,DDD.4'
IN A FUf;THER POSITIVE MOVE, THE G-0VERNMENT ON FRIDAY ANNOUNCED
NEW COMMANDERS FOR Tf?lE REPL'BLTCAN tJATIONAL GUARD Af1D THE CIVIL POLICE
? THE MILITARY ALERT ANNOUNCED ON FRIDAY ENDED ABRUPTLY ON
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SATURDAY WITH THE EXPL.ANATTGN 'SHAT THE COUNTRY IS NOW CALM'. WHAi'EVFR
THE RcASON FOR THE ALERT, IT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SKILLFULLY USED BY
THE GOVERNMENT TU AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SEIZE THE INITIATIVE D,ND
t1ARSHAL ITS FORCES? {SECRET}S' '
4. SPAIN: (COST SPANISH OFPfC;ALS DO NOT BELIEVE GENERAL FRA NCO
GULL RECOVE7 FROM HIS GRA1iE ILLNESS AND HAVE FOCUSED THEIR ATTENTION
ON THE POST-FRANCO PERIODS'
VARIOUS ELEh1ENTS OF WHAT :HAS BEEN THE ILLEGAL OPPOSITION DURING
THE FRANCO ERA HAVE INDICATED THAT THEY ARE PREPARED TO ACT IN A
COOPERATIVE, RESPONSIBLE MANNER DU(~IN'G THE INITIAL PHASE OF' TFIE
TRANSITION PERIOD.4'
--A LEADING OFFICIAL OF THE COMMUNIST-DOMINATED WORKERS'
COMMISSIONS SAID THAT THEY HAVE SPREAD TFIE IIJORD
TO THEIR MEM6ERSHIP TO AVOID S'I'R?IKE ACTIVITY AND OTHER PROTEST ACTTOPJ
DURING THE TRANSITION.4'
--FELIPE GONZALEZ, SECRETARY GENERAL OF TFIE SPANTSFI SOCIALIST
WORKERS PARTY, REPORTEDEll THAT HTS PARTY WILL GIVE
PRTPJCE JUAN CARLOS A CHANCE TO OPEN UP THE POLITICAL SYSTEM. A BASQUE
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SOCIALIST PARTY OFFICIAL ECHOED THESE SENTTf1ENTS, AND GONZALEZ
BELIEVES THAT SPANISH COMMUNIST PARTY LEADER CARRILl.O ALSO SUPPORTS
THT_S ATTITUDE, DESPITE THE CONTRADICTORY STATEMENTS MADE RY COMMUNTS
PARTY OFFICIALS.4'
--~AN INTIMATt OF TIERNO GALVAN, LEADER OF THE POPULAR
SOCIALIST PAP;TY AND A RIVAL OF GONZALE7_', CLAIMS THAT HTS PARTY WILL
NOT MAKE TROsJBLE FOR JUAN CARLOS, AT LEAST INITIALLY. 4'
THESE COMf1ENTS STRONGLY SUGGEST THaT A MAJORITY OF POLTT:iCAL
GROUPS BELIEVE THAT FULL~SCALE OPPOSITION TACTICS AT THIS TIME WOULD
ONLY PREJUDICE THEIR LONG-TERM.INTERESTS AND INVITE REPRESSION. THEM
FUTURE COURSE OF ACTION, HOWEVER, WILL DEPEND ON THEIR ASSESSMENT OF
JUAN CARLOS'?FERFORMANCE.S'
TIDE FIRST CLUES AS TO JUAN CARLOS' INTENTIOPlS SHOULD APPEAR TN
THE NATIONWIDE SPEECH, HE IS EXPECTED 'f0 MAKE AFTER THE TRANSFER OF
POWER CEREMONIES. HE HOPES TO FOP,M A NEW GOVERNMENT, AND TTS
C011POSITION WILL BE USED BY OPPOSITION GROUPS TO MEASURE HOW FAR AND
HOW FAST JUAN CARLOS IS PREPARED 'i D PRESS FOR REFOP,f1.4'
THE NEW HEAD OF STATE WILL NOT BE ABLE TC SATISFY ALL SHADES
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~~-ALIGN FIRST LETTER IN THIS BOX. TYPE THE WORD "ALIGN" TO REGISTER HERE---*j ~~
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OF POLITICAL OPINION, BUT'HE HAS A GOOD CHANCE?OF WINNING THE SUPPORT
OF A COMMANDING tiAJORITY IF HE DEVELOPS A POLT_CY THAT CLEARLY
DEPARTS FROM THE TENETS OF FRANCO"S RULE WITHOUT APPEAkTPJG TO BE AN
ABRUPT RUPTURE FROhI THAT ERA. THUS, HE WILL HAVE TO f1AKE ~Of1E PROGRESS
TOWARD ESTABLISHING A FREER POLITICAL SYSTEM, BUT ONLY GRADUALLY,
AND WITH CLEAR INDICATIONS THAT THE EVOLUTION TS BEING TIGFfTLY
CONTROLLED BY COMPETENT t1UTHORTTIES.Y
INEVITABLY, THERE WILL BE SOh1E TROUBLE REGARDLESS OF HOW
SKILLFULLY JUAN CARLOS h1ANAGES T'F1IS PROCESS. FIFTEEN ALLEGED f1E.iBERS
OF THE FAR-LEF1' TERRORIST ANTIFASCIST AND PATRIOTIC
REVOLUTIONARY FRONT WERE ARRESTED OVER THE WEEf':END; THIS GP,OUP
WILL CONTTPJUE, AND MAY IIJTENSTFY, TTS TERRORIST CAf11'AIGN WHEN JUAN
CARLOS ASSUMES POWER.4'
VIOLENCE FR0f1 THE EXTREME RIGHT h1AY ALSO INCREASE. ON SUNDAY,
A RIGHT--WING GROUP CALLED THE DEATH COt1MAtJDOS PUBLICLY ORDERED 1,7
PRUf1INENT CATALANS ASSOCIATED WITH LEFTIST POLITICAL GROUPS TO LEAVE
? THE COUNTRY 2~1 HOURS AFTER FRANCO"S DEATH OR FACE DEAT'f~ TI'Ef1SELVES?4'
THE h1ILITARY, ANn TJ A GREATER EXTENT Tf?IE POLICE FORCES, ARE
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MAINTAINING A LOW-LEVEL ALERT STATUS. {COtJFIDE~JTIAL} E-2^~IMPDET?rl
SDO-- DDODO
DArr:
OCTOBER 28, 1`175
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SEC(~ET AlOF~R(~
~iLSTERN i-1EttISP:IEP.E t~RYEF J~E,6-75? ~f
GUYANA: HIGH-LEVEL t~IWISTEf~2AL TRAIfEL T4 ~1AVA:~/~ PARRS APa(1TItE'~
PHASE TN GUYANA'S GFt0t~INC TIES I3ITN TftE CASTRO GOVERta!1E'?~T?~
Its REtENT nONTMS. THREE CAr3IP~EY I~I:'iISTEi~S--biAf1IL.T4N 6R~:r N,
COOPEI?ATTVES AMD HATIOyAL ti08JfLIxATEON ~ STEVE f'~ARAIriE, IiOKr.S AtiD
s~OUSIfVG', AMID SNItiLEY FIELD-RIDIL?-Y, IKFORPIA'TION ANA CtJLTt1R>>-?~?hiAVE
MADE VI~:ITS TO CtiUA TO PROFIT FROi! THE CU~A:v EXPs:RIE~OCE IN THEIR
PARTICULAR FIELDS. IN A~DITIORt, UNIVERSITY OF G:IYA~~A VICE
i:HAIiCELLOR DENPdIS IRVIt~iE LED ASEVEN-PLAN DELEGATIOt~i i=ROf7 i!?1E
-`1I~OISTRIES Of: EDUCATIOti AND NATIONAL DEVELOPt1EAiT EARLIER THIS I~fOtdT:1
TO INVESTIGATE THE POSSIt3ILITY OF ADAF'TIPib CUQA~I EdOR~:-STUDY PPtOGRAFSS
TO GUYANA ? THE GUYAMtSE DELE6ATIOH SAS EXPECTED TO S~tVITE CUBAN
REPRESE~3TATIVrS TO CONE TO G~lYAWA TO ADVISE TtiE GOVERl~PtEhiT Ndtd SJCEi
PROGKAClS COULD QE It?OSTITUTED?4'
CUBA IS ALREADY T':'!E NESTERPi HEMISP~lERE I