TRANSMITTAL OF CIA ANALYSIS OF WORLD SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR GRAIN, 1974/75

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000600040002-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 50
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 2, 2000
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: June 9, 1975
• Content Type: MEMO

 r '. 1 ~_o7S~~'7J
~, ~A~prov~or 1200y,Q~9~~P~6T~Q6~000600040002-1
9 JU~~ 1975
M1:MOI2111JDUM rOR: Mr. John Rzry
Director, Office: of Trade Policy
Department of the Traasury
SU13JL?'CT Tranumittal of CI11 ,Analysis of World
Supply arn1 Demand for Grain, 1974%!5
1. In rosponsQ t~~ your revuost we are transmitting
Arl updata of our 28 I'c:Uruary 175 study of tt1O ~9orld Supply/
Demand Situation for Grain. '.L'Yris is i:hc; fourth in a saric~s
of reports on t}iis subject. The thrust o~ the analysis
i.: aimed at estimating foreign cic:mana for. US vrheat and corn
in the 1979/75 marY.etirrg year.
2. A short: section hac 2aeen includ~:c3. on worlcl wheat
production prospect3 for 19'J'5/76. The excellent outlook i3
current~.y depressing demand for? old crop wheat and corn in
internationr~.l tear}.ets.
3. 13ecauae of the interesL? of other governmeni:al
components in this subject, this Office may send the attached '
paper to other interested officials.
4. Please let us know if we cnn be of any further
a3sistance. Queries concernin the attached contribution
should be directed to coda 1x33, 25X1A9a
c~xtc1nsion 5iiG8.
Rttaclunent:
ns stated
Chief
Industrial Nations Division
Office of Economic R.esc:arch
rwor~rrnr.riYrn~
NO ~p{;EIGN U15SEM
ct.nssrr?Irn r.Y .rte,? S/~~ _ _
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(unle.. imp?.?iLle, in,er, drl? nr etent)
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 DISTRIBUTION: (S-i~7527)
ORIGo & I -ADDRESSEE
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I - f~1R ~ I~~ORELL., TREASURY
l - D/OER
l - D/I
> - ST/P
l - I/JP
1 - I/WE
1 - C/RE ~ ~ -
~. - D/LA
l - D/i~E
1
- D/S,'~
1
- U/SR
1
- S/EC
3
- I/AM
1
- f-1R, llU$AULT,
0~'1B
1
- MR. ED SCHUH, CEA
I - P1R, SHARP, CIEP
1.- MR. HEFFRAN, STR
1 - MR. PLACKE, STATE
1 - DCD
I - ELMER KLUMPP~ USD~~
I - DAWSON AHALT
OER/I/Afrl B~/So68/6 JUNE 1975
1 - PAR, BULTE:?, NSC
Approved For Release 2002/02/19 :CIA-RDP86T00608R000600040002'-1
 I.VIVYI!l~.~. ? r~ ,.,
NN~QQ FOREIGN DIS`,EM
Approved For Release 20D2/02/19 : CIA~RDP86T00608R000600040002-1
WORLD SUPPLY AND DEMAfdD FOR GRAI(d, 1974/75
WITH EMPHASIS UN FOREIGN DEMAND FUR US WHEAT AND CORN)
? REPORT Nor 4 _
CONFIDENTIAL
NO FOIi1:IGN OtSSEM
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
CrNTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
6 JUNE 1975
S-Oi 525
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(~ala~a i~pa~ai{11a, iaaul ~al? sr ?t~ut)
Approved For Release 2002/02/19 :CIA-RDP86T00608R000600040002-1
 CONFIbL'NTIAI'
~If1 r.n?.r.~? ,...e?
Approved For Release 2002/02/19: CIA-RDP86T00608ROOQ600040002-1
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1
KEY FINDINGS .................,,,.,,,..,.,,..,.,.,.,2
WHEAT: SUPPLY/UEMAN S TUATION 1974/75 AND
OUTLOOK 19~/5/~'6 .........................3
WORLD WHEAT FRODUCTIUN ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,~
WORLD IMPORT DEMAND FOR WHEAT, FY 1975 ,,,,,.,y
EXPORT AVAILA?3ILITIES ........................4
FOREIGN DEMAND FOR US WHEAT ..................7
PROSPECTS FOR 1975/76 WORLD WHEAT '
PRODUCTION .............................11
CORN: SUPPLY/DEMAND SITUATION 1974/75 ,.,,,,...,..13
WORLD PRODUCTION OF CORN, 1974/75 .......,....13
EXPC,'.T AVAILABILITIE$ ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,ly
WORLD IMPORT DEMAND FOR CORN .................lj
FOREIGN DEMAND FOR~US CORN ...................17
APPENDIX A: SITUATION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES ...,.,2
APPENDIX B. METHODOLOGY AND SOURCES ..............Z1
CONFIDENTIAL
NO FOQEIGN DISSEM
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World ;;+a,~ply and Demand far Grain, 1974/75
CONFIGENTIAC
NO FORE1GtJ ~ISSEM
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Introduction
This upd~~;:es our 2t3 February 1975 report on alternative
estimates of ~:orld export supply and domand for grain (excluding
rice) . It rc;~~>resents the fourth and possibly final report on
the 1974/75 r,arain situation. It compares CIA estimates with
those of US1:'F~* and, for wheat, with the International Wheat
.Council (IVd+.;') . The analysis is aimed at determining the
foreign imp; sort demand for US wheat and corn in the 1974/75
marke~:ing ~~ear (MY) . **
We .have included in this report a brief section on
prospects for the 1975/76 world wheat harvest. This was
included because of the impact it .s having on impart demand
for whe3.: during the current marketing year, which ends on
30 Jun;, ~~975. Some of the US new crop wheat will be maryeted
this mr,~;~th. ~ '
Tl,,e analysis and judgments arrived at in this report
were b,~sed on data available as of 26 May 1975.
~!,upendix A provides a discussion of the grain situation
in selected individual countries. Appendix B explains the
methodological approach w~ used to estimate foreign demand
for US grain.
*All references to USDA estimates in this report refer to
those contained in the Foreign Agriculture circular FG6-75,
1G April 1975 and Wheat Situation, ERS, blay 1975.
** The marketing year for wheat is 1 July - 30 June and for
corn, 1 October - 30 September.
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?The world grain situation has eased considerably during
the past 3 months with #urthAr easing expected if bullish
prospects for 1975 grain crops hold. Currently a 7-10~
increase in wheat production is forecast.
World stocks of both wheat and corn will be drawn down --
mostly in the US -- to a low level but above earlier
predictions.
?We estimate foreign demand for US wheat and f lel~r for
FY 1975 at 30 million tons* or about the same as USDA.
Shipping rates indicate, however, that actual experts
may fall 1/2 million tons short of?this projection.
~A sharper cut 3_n feedgrain usage and larger exports
from southern:~emisphere corn producers than predicted
3 months ago have combined to ease the tight corn supply
situai?,ion.
Foreign demand for US corn in 2dY 75 is esthmated at 27.9
million tons, down 300,000 tons from our t': .uary estimate.
Stocks on 30 September 1975 will still be at a dangerously
low level.
Futures quotations point :.o lower grain prices in the
fall. Markets however will remain sensitive to any marked
changes in harvest prospects during the coming months
because of the low stock levels in the US.
?USSR grain import intentions are st.i11 a bi5 unknown
and may not be known before late summer. Tt will take
Soviet purchases of more than 3 million tons to strengthen
prices according to private traders.
*metric tons are used throughout this report.
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NA FOREIGN D155EM
Wheat: Supply/Demand Situation 1974/75
and Outlook for 1975/76
1. The tight world supply/demand balance for wheat has
continued to ease since 1:~st November. Prices have fallen
}ay nearly 40ti with $3.00 per bushel wheat projected by USDA.
However, the market situation is expected to remain sensitive
~o weather reports until Northern Hemisphere spring planted
crops are harvested in the fall of 1975. Although world
carryover wheat stocks on 1 July 1975 will be slightly largE~,r
than previously projected, they will still be below last year.
Therefore next year's export requirements are'more dependent
than ever on an increase in wheat output in Canada, Australia,
and Argentina, as well as the US. Current projections for
1975/76 wheat output indicate a 7-10$ increase over last year.
World Wheat Production, 1974/75
2. Production estimates remain virtually the same
as those made last February. Based on firmer estimates
for the southern hemisphere, world wheat production is now.
put at 347 million tons, 20 million tons short of last years
record level. A 26 million ton drop in the Soviet crop
as well as smaller reductions in Canadian, Australian, and
Argentine harvests more than offset record harvests in the
US and West Europe. (See Table 1)~
CONFIDENTIAL'
NO FOREIGN DISSENT
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 !j ti~ww:+a~.. w.P?'erwra rir ^?:I*E Il lxa..~yfp?,~a awQ,y{~}~q~pl.y~!,.r
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World Wheat Production
(In million metric tons)
Country or
Preliminary
Region
1972 73
1973 74
1974/75
Argentina
6.9
6.6
5.1
Australia
6.4
12.1
11.7
Canada
14.5
16.5
14.2
East Europe
30.6
31.G
33.4
India
26.4
24.7
22.1'
West Europe
51.4
50.7
55.9b/
USSR
86.0
109.8
83.8
USA
42.0
46.4
48,8b/
Other
70.7
68.4
71.3b/
Total
334.9
366.8
3^~.3
forecast
1975 7G
G.5
12.0
17.3
31.0
26.0
5.~.. 0
105.0
57.8
75.0
382.6
a Production data include all harvests occuring in the May-April
period of years sliowr..
b/ No independent estimates made, accepted those o# USDA.
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 ? NO FOfl[fGN OISSEM
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World Import Demand for Wheat, F"Y 1975
3. Our est' ~ of the total rror1~3 import demand
for wheat has cY4angert only marginally since Februar}~, from
65.3 million tons to 65.6 million tons. This compares with
lower projections by JSDA and the International Wheat Council
(IWC) of 64.6 million tons and 64.3 million tons, respectively.
CIA est,~mates are somewhat hig}i~r for each of the major regions
than those of USDA or IWC. The dx?op in wheat prices and higher
than previously expected levels of PL-480 aid have contributed
to the increase in effective import demand. Because of shipping
delays, however, the total volume imported by?30 June 1975 may
not exceed 64 million tons.
4. Total imports of about G5 million tons would exceed
last year's level by over 3 million tons and be only 2 million tons
short of the record set in FY 73. Import requirements this
year are up nearly 7 million tons for the near East and south
Asia regions. This sizable increase is only partially offset
by smaller import r~equir$ments for Europe an3 South America.
(See Tahle 2)
Export Availabilities
5. The availability of wheat for export in FY 75 has
gone up about one million tons since our February estimate
to a total of 69 million tons. This resulted from smaller
than expected quantities of wheat being fed to'livestock in
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CONFIpENTIAI
NO FOftCIGN DISSEM
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World Imports of Wheat, FY 74 and Estimated FY 75
(In Thousand Metric Tons)
I'Y 197 5af
Region
FY 1974
CIA
IWC
(29 May)
(l3 Apr)
050
16
13,296
12,850
Rurope
,
West Ruropeb~
7,554
6,G05
6,250
East Rurope
4,107
3,996
4,100
USSR
4,389
2,695
2,500
h
i
118
9
8,211
7,500
erc
sp
West IIem
North and Central
,
America
2,590
2,707
2,600
South America
6,528
5,504
5,200
ia
A
28,029
34,83G
34,400
s
Near Eas~~
4,016
6,591
6,500
Far Rast
24,103
28,245
27,9;0
Africa
8,448
9,042
x,800
i
188
326
500
a
Ocean
tal
ld T
61
909
F5,637
64,350
o
Wor
,
aj 'USDA does not publish a similax regional brea3cdown for comparison.
Their estimate of total exports is 64.6 million tons.
b/ Excludes intra RC-9 trade.
CON~tOENTIAL
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coNFlaErvrln~
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the FC and the US. Fxport~availability is more i:han adequate
to cover world demand. The FC and Australia will have
larger surpluses to export than a year..ago without drawing
down stocks. However, for the other major exporters -- the
US and Canada -- the maximum amount of wheat available for
export is based.on a drawdown in stocks by 30 June 1975 to
minimum acceptable levels. It is now certain that US stocks,
already at a 25 year low, will not be drawn down further.
6. As shown on Table 3, of the major exporters on?,y
Argentina is expected to export up to its full potential.
Transportation delays, measures to restrict sales early in
the market year, bullish projections for. the 1975 wheat crop,
contract cancellations, and late allocations to aid programs
(.such as PL-480) will all contribute to holding actual shipments
in FY 75 to less ?than 65 million tons. Pro;~ably as much as a
mil],ion tons sold for delivery in FY 75 will not be shipped
until of ter 30 June.
Foreign Demand for US Wheat
7. CIA forecasts the FY 75 export demand for US wheat
(including flour) at nearly 30.3 million tons, 900,000 tons
less than our February estimate. U5DA h~.s maintai.ned their
estimate at 29.9 million tons. Thus the difference in estimates
is row only 400,000 tons, an insignificant difference. This
amount compares with exports of 31.1 million tons a year a?o.
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CONFInCNTIAL
NO FOREIC,N UI55EM
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Table 3 ,
World Exports of Wheat and Flour by Source
(million metric tons)
Exporter
T'Y 73
r'Y 74
FY 75 Estimatesa/
Available
Actual
Argentina
3.5
1.1
2.5
2.5
Australia
5.6
5.5
9.0
8.0
Canada
15.6
11.7
11.3
10.6
West Europeb/
6.5
5.8
9.0
8.2
USSR
1.3
5.0
3.7
3.7
il'
31.5
31.1
32.0
30.0
Other
2.9
1.6
1.5
1.5
Total
67.2
61.8
69.0
64.5
a~-E t mis ates as of mid-P4ay 1975.
b/ Excludes intra EC-9 trade.
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8. CIA estimates by region and selected countries arc
compared to r~tiipmc;nts plus outstanding export sales ( ~,OES )
in Table 4. Since last November the SOI:S h.-rG i.^.or4ao~u icy
about 5.5 million tons to 30.7 million tons or 101 of our
exporL? estimate for the year. Although the SOES for the EC-9.
still exceeds CIA estimates, it has dropped 1.3 million tons.
We believe that additional contracts will be cancelled or that
some of the w'.~eat will be transhipped to Eastern Europe.
9. Our earlier judgments have boon borne out that
there is less speculation in the wheat market this year than
a year ago, and therefore, the SOES for wheat now represents
a relatively good indicator of export demand. Nevertheless
some contracts will be cancelled and some purchases delayed
to take advantage of lower prices, so that actual shipr.-~ent
of US grain by 30 June may fall. short of the 30.3 million tons
we have projected. It will mostly depend on how fast PL-480
shipments are covered or officially allowed to extend into
FY 7G, such as the 2 month extension recently granted Egypt.
10. US exports of 30.3 million tons of wheat would
draw down stocks for the third sucessive year. Given this
level of export and L'SDA's Outlook IIoard projection of x.9.2
million tons (707 million bushels) for domestic. consumption,
carryover stocks on 30 June 1975 would be down to 6 pillion
tons the lowest level in 25 yeas. This amount would be some
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CONFI~EMTIA~
Nn ~QRFI(:W OrCSFM
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'4
~ ~ d.
~~~Sta)'*} ..a~;.i .t:Y .r3 ]: S~.'Cef. a~i`]C~'".11tM4 "Y !:Sa..~Y71ax )e.'~.. 1J 1 .~_t 4Lu5Yd~.
 [5TIMI1TG1) I)I:MAND rOR US WIIL'Al' ANU ~'LOUfi CXPOR'I'S~ `Y 75`---'-~
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In 'Thounnnd Mct?r. is Torrnl
ClA Ibt'rcntrt: 1''Y 75
SOIa;~~
Dentinnt?i.on
MY 74
f'ob __~
I4~
].~1 M~ l97
Wdntrrn ll~min h~ros
`-
03
Mlcx~o
704
030
832
2
Ura~il.
1,'~SO
700
700
795
Chilo
G00
G00
570
G02
Colombi.n
472
300
300
380
Peru
490
535
52G
G08
Vrnnzn.~la
G07
540
540
GO1
Genital 1Vnorica
?.99
341
2G2
334
Othorn
1 ].45
'134
'
752
585
Sub-total
5,~
,~ZO
4,556
4,731
1:u rope s
US Sit
2,725
1,140
1,115
].,115
Eaut;orn l;uropo
851
715
].37
].45
I:C-9
2,477
2,525
2,4GG
2,GOG
Other Weclt i:uropc
G93
485
371
3G4
Sub-total
G~
,~
~, 089
A, 2t30
Asias
Japnn
3,OG7
3,200
3,iG8
3,299
India
1,G20
4,500
4,900
4,811
Taiwan
849
550
525
411
Pcople'n Republic
of China
3,190
1,595
1,595
1,449
Korra, South
1,588
1,700
1,800
1,775
Iraq
459
550
500
502
Iran
584
1;700
1,700
1,710
Israel
449
425
370
3G8
Philippincn
385
450
380
322
Aangladcnh
730
1,100
900
867
Indonesia
315
110
140
130
Pakistan
544
900
900
904
Viot;nam, South
119
100
50
48
Turkey
3~9
GG5
640
961
Othor
834
905
1,037
9G7
~
Sub-total
15,OG2
18,450
18 105
1E3,52d
Africas
Algeria
1,04G
GG5
655
661
Rgypt;
713
1,000
850
988
Morocco
599
800
655
924
Nigeria
368
300
240
237
Sudan
656
155
155
80
Others
~
3G5
390
274
Sub-toL?al
3,382
3,285
'1,945
2,664
Total Wheat 31,067
31,180
30,295
30,205'
Flour and Products c/
c/
c/
c/
Total ldicat arcl Flour 31, OG7
31, 180'
30, 295
30, 205
_
Unspecified
Destination ---
Total Wheat (known
and unknown
destination) ---
---
---
---
541
30,74G
~M~r cling year, 1 July 1974 through 30 June 1975
r
b/ Wheat Shipments inspected for export 1 July 1974 through 18 May 1975
_ plus Outstanding Export Sales as of 18 May-1975 for the balance of FY 1975
c/ Flour~in grain equivalent included with individual country's wheat import
projections.
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400,000 tons smaller than USDA's estimate. Unless exp~~rt
shipments pick up carryover stocks could be at G.8 million
tons, exceeding estimates of both USDA and CIA. Private
grain traders estimate that 1 July 1975 carryover stocks
will be equal to or larger than a year ago.
11. 7.'otal US inspections of wheat for export in
,the 1 July 1974 - 11 May 19.75 period were running 2.3
million ton; behind a year ago.' These data imply an annul
rate of exhort of only 28.9 million tans (excludinglour).
Larger shipments of wheat and flour can be expected in June,
reflecting recent commerical purchases and fulfillment of
delayed PL-480 commitments. It is doubtful that the shipments
will be large enough, however, to push total US exports of
wheat and flour in FY 75 to the level estimated by USDA or CIA
of 29.95 and 30.0 million tons, respectively.
Pros' ects 'for '1975/76 World Wheat Production
12. We are currently estimating a record 1975/76 world
wheat crop of about 380 million tons, nearly 10~ larger than
last year. This compares with increases of 7~ projected by
USDA and IWC. These projections all assume normal weather
conditions until harvest time. This level of output should
meet import demand and provide for some stock rebuilding.
l3. The area planted to wheat is expected to be up in all
the major exporting countries according to planting intentions
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reports of farmers. Ilumper harvests arc expected in the US
and Soviet Union which wi11 more than offset smaller crops
in >;urope and north Africa (sec 'c'able 1) . Nevertheless,
any production forecast at this time should be read with
caution. Weather dominates the short-run factors affecting
output. Weather conditions so far Dave been favorable over
most of the winter wheat areas in the northern hemisphere.
This could quickly change as in 1973/74, however, and
adversely affect the outlook for spring wheat yields of
important producers like Canada and the Soviet Union. Also,
in the sourtliern hemisphere wheat has yet to be planted
and won't be harvested until December 1975.
CONFI~ENYIAL'
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Corn: Sui~ply Demand Situation 1974/75
14. 'i'1ie tight world supply~3emand situation for
feedgrains in 1974/75 has continued L?o ease somewh;urope. There are reports that the demand for high
quality protein wheat by rC millers is greater than a year ago.
The lower supply of high gxade Canadian wheat. strengthened
demand for US No.2 hard rec: winter wheat. Thus, our current
estimate of 2.5 million tons of US wheat exports to the EC
in FY 75 could be low. ~~~ ?~
Feed rg ains: Western Europe is a large net import;cr
of feedgrain, especially corn. In FY 74, the regions' net
feedgrain imports were 21 million tons. The US sold 17. million
tons of these feedgrains -- mostly corn -- to the region,
including 12.4 million to the >JC.
According to a 1G April forecast of the USDA, Western
CON!'iDENTIAI,
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indicate an increase in the feed use of grain in MY 75 to
use of grain, new price relationships recently established
);urope's I'Y 75 net imports of fcedgrains will drop 0.8
million toJis to 20.2 million tons. This reduction is
primarily based on expanded feeding o'L? domestic wheat.
Although earlier estimates predicted a drop in the feed
Argentina and South Africa.
tons. The remaining corn imports will come mostly from
9 million tons out of a tota:~ import requirement of 12 million
from the US in MY 75 are estimated by the UC Commission at
96.2 million tons from 94.5 last year. UC corn imports
Somme unceLtainty still remains in the estimate of
,1;C imports of US corn.' Last fall the HC Commission agreed
with US officials to import only 7 million tons of US corn,
but subsequently revised it up to 9 million tons. As of
mid-May. US corn shipments to the Communist since 1 October
were about 7.5 million tons -- an annual rate of l2 million
tons. We currently estimate the EC will take only 12 million
tons from all sources, of which probably 8.9 million tons
will be from the U5. However, recent L-ariff and licensing
changes and/or possible re-institution of denaturing premiums
for wheat could lower total imports of corn.
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IMPOR'.CERS
Ban ladesh
There have been no significant changes in the Bangladesh
foodgrain situation since our last report. We still es>imate
I~'Y 75 foodgrain production at about 11.7 million tons, about
the same as last year. FY 75 foodgrain shipments to Bangladesh
are now estimated slightly higher than earlier at about 2.4
million
including nearly 2.1 million tons of wheat and
325,000 tons of rice. (2mports in I'Y 74 totaled 1.7 million
tons made up of l.6 million tons of wheat and 100,000 tons of
rice.) Our total estimate of US wheat exports to Bangladesh
includes 600,000 tons under PL-480 and 300,000 tons of
commercial purchases financed in many cases by international
aid donors. Sizable additional imports will be needed early
in I'Y 7G for distribution in the lean period prior to the major
harvest next fall. Bangladesh will remain dependent on aid-
financed grain imports for the foreseeable future.
Eastern Europe
Grain production in Eastern Europe reached a record
74.8 million tons in 1974; grain imports during rY 75 are
estimated at 8.5 million tons with imports almost evenly
divided between wheat and feedgrains. The northern coun~ries --
Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and Poland -- account for most of
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the train imports. 1lmong the southern countries --
traditional. grain e~tporters -- Bulgaria and Romania arc
importing feedgrains to ma};e up for Harvest shortfalls.
' Wheat: The Soviet Union is supplying about 3.1 million
tons of wheat to Eastern Europe in I'Y 75. An additional
900,000 tons is being supplied by the: West. US wheat exports
to Eastern Europe are estimated at under 200,000 tons
the smallest amount in several years.
East German requirements decl5.ned because of a bumper
grain harvest. Imports'of taheat are estimated at. 1.0 millS.on
tons, almost .all supplied by the Soviet Union. East Germany
probably will not exercise its option to buy 500,000 tons of
Australian wheat this year.
Czechoslovakia harvested a record 10.G millicn tons of
grain. Czech import
at 1.0 million tons,
0.8 million tons.
Polanc produced
21.8 million tons in
at l.5 million tons,
to fall.. Poland has
requirements for wheat are estimated
of which the Soviets will supply about
22.9 million tons of grain, compared taitli
1973. Total wheat imports are estimated
but could go higher if prices continue
acquired a $15 million Commodity Credit
Corporation credit for US wheat to be delivered by October.
IIoth Romamia and Bulgaria imported wheat this year.
Romania used its wheat purchases to largely satisfy export
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commiL-meni:r3. IIulyariu received an c:merycncy crhipmcnt of
0.3 million ton: from the USSR ~~- probably lower quality
wheat for feed -- as well a^ small quantities from other
Last European countries.
Corn: Rains first delayed then stalled tlic harvest
of the important corm crop with resti.ltant ~ losses. Corn
production in 1974 totaled 1G.1 million tons, down L-rom
1G.5 million tons in 1973. Cv.rn imports are estimated at
3.8 million tons, the bulk of it from the US.
Poland's potato prop, about G0~ of which is fed L-o
livestock, was damaged by excessive soil moisture and reached
only 49 million tons compared with 52 million tons in 1973.
Other fodder crops were also damaged. The regime is committed
to expandi.i~g livestock numbers and required corn imports are
estimated at,.about 1.2 million tons with 1 million from the
US and the remainder from Trgentina.
East Germany is also importing large amounts of corn
to support its growing livestock sector. Corsi imports are
estimated at 1.5 million tons mostly f r.om the US. A large
share of JS corn imported by East Germany is transhipped
through Iiamburg ~*~d ~:ius may enter US records as an export
to West German '
Czechoslovakia's corn crop, 0,7 million tons, fell below
expectations. Import require,aents arc about 200,000 tons.
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Romania's corn crop fell to 7.2 milJ.ion L-ons in 1974,
iL?s uecond cpnsecutivc decline. Uirect purc'~ases of corn to
meet domestic requircrncnts and export commitments arc estimated
at 100,000 tons, all from the US.
India
India's overall foodgrain situation has improved slightly
since i'ebruary. Serious shortages, however, continue to
? plague areas in the south ?and east. Grain productie.i for
I'Y 75 is now estimated at 102 million tons; still below I'Y
74 but ahead of earlier FY 75 estimates of 9G-99 million tons.
The increase is due to a better than anticipated spring harvest
which is expected to surpass the record set 3 years ago. The
increased production is centered i~~ nort.hwestern wheat growing
areas where well-timed rainfall and generally favorable weather
helped boost yields.
The improved crop performance came too late to reduce
Indian grain imports in FY 75, which are now estimated at 7.7
million tons. All is wheat except for 930,000 tons of
Argentine sorghum. India is the world's largest purchases of
US wheat this year, taking 4.1 million tons commercially and
800,000 tons under PL-480. `t'he size of next year's imports
will 3epend primari'.y on the summer monsoon. India already
has purchased 1.6 million tons of US wheat for shipment in
FY 76.
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Japan
~ihea t: .although originally estimated at 5.7 million tone,
J,Zpan's L?'Y ~75 wheat imporL-s probably will be unchanged from
1auL? year's level of 5.4 million tons. Consumption may
actually dec7.ine slightly ~.n view of the reduction in housr_hold
spending on luxury items iticlud9.nr; cakes and pastries. Imports
of US wheat at about 3.3 million tons will be up fractionally
from earlier estimates primarily because Canadian s}Zipments
have been delayed by longsiioremcn's strikes. As of 18 May,
US wheat shipments to Japan combined with outstanding orders
amounted to 3.3 million tons.
Corn: In recent months the Japanese have been whittling
down their demand estimates for feedgrains. Mixed freed consumption
in Fei xuary was down nearly 25 ~. from t}ie earlier level and
stocks of feed corn and sorg}ium were up by about one-third.
Since l~.st summer, corn import requirements have barn reduced
ay about 1 million tons to 7.4 million tons. Because of this
reduction, imports of US corn in DIY 75 now are estimated at only
5.3 million tolls. Outstanding orders still reflect a somewhat
higher level (5.8), but these are gradu~111y being cut back.
Imparts from Thailand and South Africa, the other major suppliers
to the Japanese market, also are expected to be down somewhat
from earlier estimate. Japanese officials anticipate a recovery
in feedgrain consumption during the remainder of the marketing
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year which shou7.d booc~t corn and sozghum imports by about
5~ in MY 7G.
Mexico
Mexican corn impori:s for MY 75 have been revised downward
from 2.8 to 2.4 mi]lion tons because consumption now appears
to be less than p~'eviously estimated in I'ebruary. Mexico
is estimated L-o have bought a1J. the corn needed for this year .
The government has stated that no more corn purchases for
MY 75 will be made. We estimate US exports to Mexico at 1.25
million tons with most of the remainder coming from Argentina.
Pakistan
There I~as been little change since ou~ last report.
Pakistan has arranged to meet its I'Y 75 what import goal
of 1.55 million tons, 550, 000 tons r^ore that: imported the
previous year. The increase was needed because of insigni-
ficant improvement in the 1979 spring wheat harvest over 1973
and government apprehension that the 1975 spring wheat harvest
would be about cne million tons below the 1974 harvest. Tllc
US is Pakistan's largest supplier with shipments in I'Y 75 of
500, 000 tons purchased commercially and 400, 000 tons under
PL-480. Pakistan is seeking even higher total wheat imports
in ~'Y 76 and will aigain look to the US as its principal supplier.
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CONFIL)f N71A1:
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1"10 FOItf,IC~N l)IS`'~FM
People's Republic oL- China
No major changes have occurred in China's foodgrai n
import position since I'ebruary. As expected, the PRC
contracted for 1.1 million tons of Canadian wheat on
4 April. 't'his contract was negotiated under a three-year
trade agreement which will expirc.in March of 1977.
Wheat: Total wheat imports probably will amount to
.~-
about 5.7 million ton:. in'FY 75, compared with 5.9 mil lion
tons in P'Y 74. Sources of wheat, this year are 1. G mil lion
tons from the US, all of which has been delivered, 2.3
million tons from Canada, 1.4 million tons from Australia,
0.2 million tons from Argentina, and 0.2 million tons for
the 1/C .
Corn: About G15,000 tons of corn will be imported
during MY 75, all from Argentina, representing a 70~
reduction from the levels of MY 74. China is not expected
to buy more US Corn because of dissatisfaction with quality.
Similar quality problems have arisen lately with corn from
Argentina.
Taiwan
Wheat: F3ecause of higher flour prices, wheat consumption
in Taiwan is expected to be somewhat below the FY 74 level.
Since domestic production is?negligible, requirements must be
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CUNf~1DCNT1Al'
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sect by imports and/or stocks. Import: probably wild. amount
to some G00,000 tons in T'Y 75 compared with about x50,000
tons last year. Australia already has shipped 50,000 tons
and the remainder probak~a y will be purchased fr. om tha
United 5tates.~
Corn: llomest.ic demand in 1979/75 probably wi.11 total
about 1.2 million tons, while production is estimated at only
95,000 tons. Assuming no stock drawdowns, imports are estimated
at about 1.1 million tons. Taiwan is scheduled to import
950,000 tons from South Africa, 350,000 tons from Thailand,
and 25,000 tons from Argentina. The remaining 300,000 tons will
be sought from the United States. As of la May shipments
plus outstanding orders from the United States amounted to
339,000 tons, of which 267,000 tons lead been shipped.
USSR
Because of a good grails crop last year and even better
prospects this year, the only action in world grain markets
so far in 1975 has been cancellation of some 1979 coni:racts.
Cancellations in January and February were made to take
advantage of prise fluctuations. Cancellation in May of
250,000 tons of US corn occurred because the grain did not
meet Soviet quality standards. At the same time the Soviets
arranged to substitute 72,000 tons of new crop US wheat
for. part of the corn while the remainder was switched to
other countries, largely Argentina.
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