NIO WARNING MEETINGS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000200010012-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 3, 2005
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: October 27, 1978
• Content Type: MF

CONFIDENTIAL
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NFAC #4768-78
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of C'4ntral Intelligen
THROUGH : Director, National Foreign Assessment C
Executive Rciiistry
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT : NIO Warning Meetings
1. Action Requested: None; for your information.
2. Background: Seven NIOs have held their first monthly warn-
ing meetings to date. The Soviet meeting, which will include strategic
programs and conventional forces as well, will take place next week.
We are not yet clear how the latter two will relate to this program,
nor how will manage his warning role.
3. I have attached the first 3 memoranda to emerge from this
operation. The African and Latin American papers seem to me very
good. The proliferation one is less useful, but this may be a function
of the subject matter. I will forward the others as they emerge.
4. We have anticipated that the initial round will be quite
uneven and will be meeting next week in an attempt to get some common
understanding of what we are after. Uniformity is not to be expected,
however, because of the great differences among the areas. Western
Europe and China in particular are difficult to handle by this approach
and we may want to modify it for them. The real test will be how to
keep the readers' attention after repetition sets in in the third or
fourth month.
5. Preliminary returns across the Community are mixed, ranging
from enthusiastic at having these discussions to a feeling that we
ourselves are confused as to what we are after. I do not propose to
give these views much weight until the system shakes down.
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6. I hope these memoranda will, as a byproduct, contribute
to your sense of what to worry about in the areas of concern that
you cannot give much attention to from day to day.
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
NFAC-4685778
24 October 1,978
THROUGH . Director, National Foreign Assessment Center
National Intelligence Officer for Warningw,L
FROM . Acting National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT . Latin America -- Warning of Impending Developments
1. Action Requested: None; for your information only.
2. Background: The convergence of severe economic, social, and
political problems suggest that political turmoil will characterize
the nations of Central America over the next 60 to 90 days. Challenges
to government stability will be particularly strong in Nicaragua, where
the FSLN plans to launch another guerrilla attack from Honduras and
Costa Rica with logistic support from Venezuela and Panama. In preparation
for this attack, President Somoza is doubling his National Guard, but the
loyalty of new recruits and their military capacity is questionable.
We should anticipate that Somoza might call on the OAS to protect his
country from military incursions from his neighbors -- a step which
could place the US in the awkward position of voting in the OAS to
protect Somoza.
3. The Nicaraguan situation is causing consternation in El Salvador,
where the stability of the government is precarious. This tiny, over-
populated country is next to the poorest in Latin America. Demographic
problems create pressures difficult to contain. There are currently
205 persons per square kilometer in El Salvador compared to 25 elsewhere
in Central America, and 12 elsewhere in Latin America. With its current
birthrate of 2.9% per annum, the population density will increase to
297 by 1990. Terrorism has been on the upswing for the last two to three
years with political figures and the prominent families which control
the economy the prime targets. There are indications that some of the
prominent families are preparing to abandon the country with as much of
their wealth as they can muster unless outside help can be obtained to
control terrorism.
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4. Elsewhere in Latin America there is a potential for conflict
between Argentina and Nlp over the Beagle l despite the
negotiations in train. Argentine military
movements in the vicinity of the Chilean border. While this may be
an Argentine tactic to intimidate Chile, it could result in frontier
clashes and possibly in Argentine occupation of the contested islands
in the Beagle Channel. While these islands are of no strategic
importance to the US and US national interests are not directly affected,
the US could become involved in restoring peace to the area.
5. Finally, the economic situation continues to deteriorate in
Peru, and there is some possibility Peru will default on its IMF
commitments. Peru is not quite poor enough to benefit from low-interest
loans available to the poorest nations, but its per capita income is
rapidly descending to that point. In 1976 the per capita income was
$800. A year later it was $740. By this year it dropped to $680.
At this rate it will cross the poverty line of $580 by August 1979,
or possibly even before because of the drought. Only at this point will
Peru be able to apply for low-interest loans. Peru's grave economic
condition will prevent that country from embarking on a military
adventure in Chile, should there be a conflict between Chile and
Argentina.
6. The above judgements are made as a result of consultations
on 19 October 1978 with the "Latinos", the senior intelligence analysts
and collectors in the intelligence community who specialize in Latin
America.
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THE D LLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intellig
NFAC 46/41-78
20 Oct;ber 1978
VIA: Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
National Intelligence Officer for Warning f?,L
FROM: National Intelligence Officer for Nuclear Proliferation
SUBJECT: Monthly Warning Report (Initial)--Nuclear Proliferation
1. Action Requested: None; for your information only in conjunction
with the new procedures for warning intelligence.
2. Background: I convened a meeting of the Interagency Intelligence
Working Group on Nuclear Proliferation (IIWG/NP) on 18 October to identify
possible items for this report and to introduce Richard Lehman (NIO/W) who
led a discussion of the procedures and criteria for warning. The discussion
during the two and one-half hour meeting was about one-half substantive and
one-half procedural.
3. Among the numerous items discussed, several are worth noting:
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4. Attached is a checklist of the kinds of items on which warning
would be desirable in the area of nuclear proliferation according to the
Arms Control and Disarmament Agency. The list should be expanded to
include the following:
--Preparations for the deployment or employment of suspected nuclear
weapons by a non-weapon state anywhere and of known nuclear weapons
by a nuclear weapon state in a nuclear weapon free zone or against
a non-weapon state.
--Indications that anti-nuclear political forces or movements will
nullify the authority of important governments.
--Plans for the disclosure or transfer of critical technology for
nuclear weapons, reprocessing, ehment, pieavy water production.
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Attachment:
Checklist
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