NTO/W CONTRIBUTION TO THE WATCH COMMITTEE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000100040002-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 20, 2005
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: June 30, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved Release 2005/06/09: CIA-RDP83B0 ~7R0001 d0040002-1
SECRET
NIO/ Contribution to the 49atch Committee
25X1 Lebanon
30 June 1982
-The precarious ceasefire also could be disrupted by Lebanese Muslim
reactions to Phalangist moves to expand the territory under Christian control.
Even if the PLO accepts a negotiated surrender, competition between Muslim and
Christian forces for advantage in future negotiations for a political settle-
ment is likely to produce periodic outbreaks of fighting.
USSR
-The apparent decline in Brezhnev's political authority probably has
increased his vulnerability to pressure for early retirement. Competition
between Chernenko and Andropov could bring succession maneuvering to a head
in the near future.
-Brezhnev's failure to meet with King Hussein may signal another setback
to his health that will impair both his ability to resist pressure to retire
and to control the succession process.
El Salvador Nicaragua
-The Sandinista regime may view the coordinated Salvadoran-Honduran
military operation against the insurgents in northern Morazan as requiring a
strong Nicaraguan response. The apparent growth in the hard-liners' influence
in Managua increases the chances of such a reaction-for example, Nicaraguan
attacks on anti-Sandinista camps in Honduras.
--Growing anti-Sandinista activity, coupled with the arrival of 2,000
additional Cubans, may produce a significant hardening in Sandinista policy
toward El Salvador and Honduras. The Sandinistas may soon proclaim a "Socialist
Republic" as a means of eliciting greater Soviet and Cuban assistance.
Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000100040002-1
I 25X1