WHY THE CIA OFTEN SUCCEEDS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88-01314R000100190002-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 2, 2004
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: January 1, 1973
• Content Type: MAGAZINE

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Recently, in dosages ranging from the MIT-"Club
of Rom Limits of Groa;th, through the publications of
John D. Rockefeller III's bur geomingZero-Growth m ove-
ment, and Herman Kahn's latest best-seller, intellectual
and semi intellectual readership circles are being de-
luged with an eerie genre of literature coming to be
called "futurology.'' Although the collect-ion reeks of
the traditions of N.ostradamus, Churchward, and L, Ron
Hubbard, most of the research behind these publications
is sponsored in ciea.d, seriousness by such CIA-type
agencies as the RAND Corporation, Ford Foundation,
and a proliferation of only less celebrated institutions
throilghout the advanced capitalist sector.
. Those agencies are not wasting their time and funds;
in a certain sense, the stuff works.
Two of the papers presented at the recent Linz con-
ference attempted to unravel some of the recent output.
The first, by Columbia University's Edward W. Said (1),
offered a scholarly overview of a sophisticated U.S.
Mid-East policy developed, in part, by the RAND Cor-
poration. The second, which veered off its track at the
end, was the provocative review offered by Lund Uni-
versity's Research Director for the Division of Social
Phychology and Conflict Research, Lars 1)encik. (2 )
The Labor Committee delegation's differences with
Doncik provide the point of departure for an account
of why CIA operations so often succeed.
"So called future research is not only humbug, it is
not only the last spasm odicattemptsbyasenile po-
sitivistic social science to get out of its hopeless
impotency, not only a death-three in the body of late
capital is in. On the contrary, itiasomethin;io look
out for in the signggle against imperialism, since
what `future research' really is, is an instrument
of power in the hands of the most important forces
of imperialism.." (3 )
So far, so good.
Our issue with him was made clear during the plen-
ary discussions of his paper' and oral presentation.
During that presentation and subsequent exchanges, he
emphasized the need to combat futurology by debunking
it. According to both his replies to several queries on
on the point and the internal evidence of his paper and
presentation, he locates the main significance of the
genre in its use for journalistic"brainwashing" of large
populations.
Said's reporting on the Arab counter-insurgency
programs locates Dencik's mistake. Fulurologystudies
may have an incidental significance as they provide
the direct propaganda for influencing mass opinion;
their important application -- and purpose -lies else-
where. All important futurology studies represent A
STATEMENT OF OPERATIONS POLICY, TO I'll,-
IENTI D AS FIELD WORK CONDUCTED BY
TRAINED TEAMS OF COUNTER-INSURGENCY OPER-
ATIV ES.
The CIA's Vietnam ilamlet program could easily
provide the material for a futiu?nl.ogy best-seller of the
Kahn type. The policy would be used by such a writer
to paint a picture of Southeast Asia in the year 2000
Al D., a culture developed aroundtheprinciple"of "local
control." The significance of such a book would not be
hat identified by Lencik. Its import would be the elab-
oration of a policy being conducted in South Vietnam by
angler-insurgency teams.
The Limits of Growth and Blueprint for Survival
Approved For Release 2004/09/28 CIA-RDP88-01314R000100190002-3