RUSSIA'S STAND ON MIDEAST SEEN A KEY TO SUMMIT TALK

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP70B00338R000300060002-7
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: January 4, 2017
• Document Release Date: July 15, 2005
• Sequence Number: 2
• Content Type: NSPR

Approve ear lease:20t 33$R0O0300060002-7
siia s St1'Aideast
u
TaIk
Se~n,a Key to Summit
By GtORGE"Sfi ftMAN
President Johnson and the So-
viet, leadership are in the final
Stages of a delicate double
guessing game" _over a summit
conference before the new, ad-
nlinistrafion takes. office Jan. 20.
The latest Soviet move, some
officials here believe, was a
high-powered commentary yes-
terday in the Communist party
btganxPravda, explicitly pledg-
ingg Soviet support for a "polite-
ca Solution" for the Middle East
_er isis.
"'The Sovi t'government, Prav-
da S}d~ wi not hermit a "new
dangerous flareup' between the
Arabs ar}a Israelis.'
The fir American reaction
ted
rrrr_ -_,_ n
o
the Russians up "on the side of
the Arab people."
"The arficle did not endorse a
"just and binding
peace"-which the Israelis de-
mand with American
support - nor did it indicate
what, if anything, Moscow will
do to bring United Arab Repub-
lic President Gamal Abdul Nas-
ser to a compromise settlement.
"Are the, Russians willin to
apply the pressure in Cairo
where it really counts?" asked
East, Gunnar Jarring. Jarring The double guessing game on
has just ended a conference on the part of the Americans and
Cyprus with Israeli Foreign
Minister Abba Eban.
In Pravda, the Russians once
again supported the Jarring
mission, which for the past year
has sought, without much suc-
cess, to bring Israel and the Ar-
abs together on implementation
of the Security Council resolu-
tion of Nov. 22, 1967, setting out
general principles for a Middle
East settlement.
That resolution coupled Israeli
withdrawal f r o m conquered
Arab territories with Arab rec-
ognition of the independence and
territorial integrity of Israel.
The Pravda article took on
added meaning as fighting con-
tinued for the third straight day
today between Israeli and Arab
forces along the Israeli border
with Jordan.-American analysts
have long felt that Russian inter-
ests in infiltrating the Middle
East are best served by keeping
the Israeli-Arab dispute simmer-
one `official. "That's what we
want to see."
He and others noted that the
Soviet. pledge' "'to prevent a new
explosion" coincided with the ar-
,rival in Cairo of nited Nations
speed envoy 'for' the Middle
as ht well coincide
rress _ what promises
w~cainpromise in the
gulmmayfou m the two super-
But the breakthrough might
In a ew atmosphere of
Russians is whether the meeting
is any longer worthwhile in the
remaining days of the lame-duck
Johnson administration. Offi-
cials here maintain that the deli-
cate final calculations are now
in the hands of Johnson and his
twc top foreign policy advisers,
Secretary of State Dean Rusk,
and Walt Rostow, national secu-
rity adviser in the White House.
Johnson first must decide
whether the most serious conse-
quences of the Czechoslovak in-
vasion have been "liquidated"
sufficiently to justify a go-ahead
on the missile talks. The John-
son administration has never
said publicly what level of Soviet
activity in Czechoslovakia would
be "tolerable," but officials say
one key is withdrawal of occu-
pying forces.
In a television interview Sun-
day, Rusk surprised Pentagon
officials by confirming that
these Soviet forces are down to
"three or four divisions"
35,000 to ? 45,000 men, compared
to an estimated 250,000 troops in
August.
"Rusk did not indicate that this
level was acceptable, or that the
Czeechoslovak situation had been
liquidated satisfactorily. But he
did lay the basis for removing
the Czechoslovak obstacle to the
Soviet-American talks, if John-
son decides to go ahead.
Johnson also must win agree-
ment from President-elect Rich-
ard M. Nixon. Although Johnson
himself insists that he is the
"only President of the United',
i States" until Jan. 20, no one'
thinks he would go ahead on a Y
summit conference on missiles'!
without the agreement of Nixon. -
The question still unanswered
publicly is whether Nixon is will-
ing to let Johnson bow out with .a
spectacular summit - and a
major commitment for the new
admini tration.
Soviet calculations are equally
delicate, officials believe. Over
the past two months the Rus-
sians have pushed hard to get
the missile talks opened. They
are believed to have two main
reasons. First, they want to re-
furbish their. tarnished image af-
ter Czechoslovakia. Second, and
more important in the long-run,
they are deeply suspicious of
Nixon's repeated "reverence for
"nuclear superiority" in the
arms race.
Some analysts reason they
would like to get the United
through on a..-concrete peace'
settlement at 'a summit meet-
ing. -
ing, but not by allowing it to boil
over into all-out war.
These analysts also believe
that the timing of the new Soviet
endorsement of an unspecified
"political solution" for the Mid-
dle East may be aimed at the
Johnson administration. Ever
since the five-day war in June
1967 threatened a Soviet-
American confrontation, John-
son has sought some kind of un-
derstanding with the Russians
on a compromise which would
limit big power arms shipments
to the Middle East.
This crisis area would be one
gbvious area for discussion at a
final summit conference be-
tween Johnson and Soviet Pre-
mier ' Alexei N. Rosygin.
The Pravda article, officials
said, shows at least that the
Russians are willing to talk seri-
ously. `But they doubt that either
the United States or the Soviet
;Union h s enough influence over
the feuding Israelis and Arabs
to make any dramatic break-
1t pion. I orrensive anu UCLCLL-
site nuclear weapons.
The general expectation here
is that if and when a summit
conference is. agreed, its main
outcome will be agreement to
open the long-delayed talks at a
apelffc date, place and level- of
negotiation.
Before the Soviet invasion of
Approved For Release 20P 1i5nnsonw lvu s y ~ -
iden o d
ncunce `a summit conference for
just such a purpose.
States locked into as many
"peace" positions as possible be-
fore Nixon takes over.
I The unanswered question on
the Russians' part is whether
they are prepared to have a
summit conference witha
,l~a~rme--gduck administration, in or-
t3~'sa9~~"M"'~14~~eques-
tions must come within the next
few weeks.