CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A001800340001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 4, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 8, 1954
• Content Type: REPORT

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DOS REVIEW
COMPLETED
8 December 1954
1 -4
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
QOCUMENT NO. Z5- Z
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. Rr'
C1 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: _ 2O / d
AUTH: HR 7Q-2
DATE: _///&-d REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Hatoyama seen most likely choice for next prime minister of
Japan (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
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2e General Collins summarizes situation in Vietnam (page 3).
NEAR EAST -- AFRICA
4. Comment on execution of Moslem Brotherhood members (page 5).
5, Compromise solution in Tunisia seems probable (page 6).
LATE ITEM
6. French officials deny Moscow demarche deals with four-power
talks (page 6).
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FAR EAST
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1. Hatoyarna seen most likely choice for next prime minister of Japan:
Most political observers in Tokyo feel
that Ichiro Hatoyama will be the next Jap-
anese prime minister. Hatoyama is
already selecting his cabinet, according
to the American embassy. The Right and Left Socialists, however,
are reluctant to support Hatoyama in the elections for prime min-
ister in the lower house of the Diet because of his stand in favor of
rearmament. They will do so only if he promises to dissolve the
lower house as soon as .the regular budget is passed next springs
The embassy points out that if the Socialists withdraw their support
from the Democrats and run their own candidate, Liberal Party
leader Ogata or a compromise candidate could still become prime
minister.
No firm decisions have yet been made
and all parties are revising their strategy in the light of Yoshida's
resignation. Plans now call for selection of the new prime minis-
ter on 9 December o
Comment: The Socialists, despite their
attempts to ba?gain, are ire y to support Hatoyama for prime min-
ister unless they discover some sort of deal between the Liberals
and Democrats o The Socialists may reason that their temporary
support of a weak Hatoyama government will hasten a general elec-
tion in which they are sure to pick up strength.
Of the total of 467 seats in the lower house
of the Diet, Ogata's Liberals hold 185, Hatoyama's Japan Demo-
crats hold 120, and the Left and Right Socialists hold 1340 The
other seats are either vacant or held by representatives of minor
parties o
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. General Collins summarizes situation in Vietnam:
At the end of his first month in Vietnam,
General Collins feels that prospects are
only fair at best that Premier Diem will
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develop an effective government capable of resisting Viet Minh
encroachments. Although the worst of the army-government feud
is probably over, Diem continues to preoccupy himself with petty
details of army administration and with the elimination of any
latent pro-Hinh sentiment to the exclusion of more important mat-
ters. His recent replacement of chief of staff Nguyen Van Vy--
who is competent but a French citizen--by the inexperienced but
pro-Diem Le Van Ty reflects this suspicion.
Collins' initial impression of Diem's
weaknesses has grown stronger, and he says "time is running
out and it will take a lot of doing to make him into an effective
leader,"
Collins believes Bao Dai's continued tamp-
ering with :Vietnamese institutions, especially the army, is injuri-
ous, and notes Diem's readiness to assert increasing independence
of Bao Dai.
American relations with the French are
satisfactory, Collins states, and General Ely has given assurances
that the joint policy of supporting Diem will not be sabotaged by
French subordinates, many of whom are still strongly anti-Diem.
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3.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Comment on execution of Moslem Brotherhood members:
The execution of six members of the
Moslem Brotherhood in Cairo on
7 December will further alienate the
Egyptian masses from the Nasr regime. Despite its history
of terroristic activity, the Brotherhood is largely regarded as
a religious, organization and therefore the execution shocks the
sensibilities of the devout. . The Brotherhoods violent opposi-
tion left Premier Nasr no real choice; however, the executions
can hardly be expected to stop terrorism. As a result, the
regime will probably be forced to rely increasingly on police
measures and has little prospect of returning to even a nomi-
nal democratic basis.
Brotherhood cells in various parts of
the Moslem world have helped bring about an extensive adverse
reaction to the executions. Mass demonstrations have occurred
in several Arab states, and even in Pakistan- -normally removed
from Arab politics-strong criticism has been voiced by re-
ligious leaders. The Nasr regime has probably lost some of the
prestige and influence it recently gained in the Moslem world and
has lessened its chances of ultimately controlling the Sudan.
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5. Compromise solution in Tunisia seems probable:
.It now seems probable that well over 75 percent of the outlaws
will lay down their arms. The Neo-Destour nationalist party's
delegates made a supreme effort to induce the fellagha to accept
.the amnesty terms.
The French authorities in Tunisia are
elated and considerably surprised by
the number of fellagha surrenders, ac-
cording to the American consul general.
A high-ranking French official told the
consul general on 5 December that steps will be taken at once to
provide jobs for ex-fellagha members to prevent them from return-
ing to banditry. He admitted, however, that he has no employment
plan ready.
Comment: Prospects for a short-term
compromise in Tunisia appear to be the best since 1951. The
long-term outlook is, however, less clear. A final settlement
must overcome the objections of both the French settlers with
their powerful political allies in. Paris and extremist Tunisian
nationalists.
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There are indications that Premier
Mendes-France prefers to have a final Tunisian settlement de-
layed until after the 10 December parliamentary debate on North
African policy in order to avoid revealing the extent of his con-
cessions to the Tunisians and thus avert attacks by his oppo-
nents in the assembly.
LATE ITEM
6. French officials deny Moscow demarche deals with four-power
talks:
High French officials have told Ambas-
sador Dillon that the French demarche
in Moscow is concerned solely with
"the -Austrian affair,, and have denied
as "utterly without foundation" press reports that the demarche
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deals with the possibility of a four-power conference in May. -Both
Alexandre Parodi, secretary general of the Foreign Ministry,
and Jean Soutou, the premier's personal foreign affairs spokes-
man, have given these assurances, Dillon and British ambassa-
dor Jebb consider the French explanation "reasonable:'
Parodi. has also strongly assured Dillon
that, contrary to speculation following General de Gaulle's speech
of 4 December, the French government has no intention of hold-
ing up the implementation of the Paris accords pending the hold-
ing of a four-power conference.
Comment: The United States and Britain
have objected to the French making a unilateral demarche in
Moscow, fearing that such action would create the impression
that the three allies were divided, and thus give the USSR a diplo-
matic advantage. Washington and London have reluctantly agreed
to a demarche, however, on condition that the French say, in
making the demarche, that they are doing ,so following consulta-
tions with the United States and Britain.
Mendes-France is eager to press a de-
marche on the Austrian question so that he can rebut charges in
the assembly that his UN speech of 22 November was only "window
dressing." He also hopes to expand his talks with Moscow ulti-
mately into four-power discussions of all areas of East-West
disagreement.
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