STAFF NOTES: SOVIET UNION EASTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000400090015-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 26, 2004
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: June 17, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Soviet Union
Eastern Europe
On file Department of
Agriculture release
instructions apply.
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To? Secret
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June 17, 1975
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SOVIET UNION ? EASTERN EUROPE
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June 170 1975
Romania and Portugal Sign Friendship Treaty. . . . 1
Hungary: Damping Expectations.
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Bumper Grain Crop Likely in Eastern Europe . . . . 5
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Romania and Port uu al Sign Friendship Treaty
Portugal and Romania signed the first friendship
treaty between a NATO and a Warsaw Pact country dur-
ing the visit to Bucharest of President Costa Gomos from
June 13 to 16.
The 13-article document stresses national in-
dependence, sovereignty, and similarities between
the policies of the signatories and the nonaligned
world. It bears a striking resemblance to a treaty
signed in late May between Bucharest and Pyongyang,
when North Korean party boss Kim I1-song visited
Romania.
President Ceausescu heralded the treaty as "the
first of its kind between friendly countries that be-
long to different military blocs." Indeed, the. ac-
cord is the first between a NATO member and an East
European nation since the conclusion of the Balkan
Pact between Yugoslavia, Greece, and Turkey in August
1954.
The final communique summarizing the talks points
out that Romania and Portugal as developing nations,
have much in common., It also stresses the usual
themes of the nonaligned countries--the need to over-
come the gap between developed and developing nations,
concern over de-colonization, and the desirability
of a new political and economic order in interna-
tional relations.
The two sides signed long-term trade, economic,
technical, and scientific agreements. In addition,
they agreed to establish a joint commission to develop
new forms of economic and industrial cooperation.
On the heels of the Gomes visit--on June 17--
the Romanian chief of staff,, Colonel-General Coman,
June 17, 1975
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began a six-day visit to,,, Portugal. Coman's trip
takes place four months rafter General Fabiao, his
Portuguese counterpart, visited Romania. Fabiao
later spoke enthusiast{,r.;ally about his trip, and
praised the civic action role of the Romanian army
in society.
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June 17, 1975
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Hungary: Damping p:.x20ctations
Party leader Kadar made a strong effort in his
election speech last week to prepare the Hungarian
people for slower improvements in the standard of
living over the next several years.
Kadar frankly acknowledged that "capitalist
inflation and the rise in raw material and energy
prices" are causing difficult problems and called
for more efficient use of raw materials, equipment,
and work time. He also emphasized the need for
national unity and cooperation between Communists
and non-Communists.
He rejected "unrealistic" increases in consumer
income and projected annual real income growth at
3-3,5 percent "for the next few years." This
figure is about one percent below what Kadar had
projected in March. Final projections for the
Five Year Plan have apparently not yet been com-
pleted.
The party chief appeared to reject any cutback
on Western trade, despite Budapest's large trade
deficit with the West. He said Hungary carried on
one third of its foreign trade with the West
"necessarily," and "not as a matter of decision."
In an apparent slap at the Soviets, Kadar failed
to give the ritualistic bow to economic aid from
Moscow. At the party congress in March--with
Brezhnev attending--he had explicitly thanked the
USSR and Brezhnev for helping Budapest solve its raw
material and energy supply problems. The omission
may well be the result of the earlier-than-planned
price increases for Soviet raw materials imposed by
i-ioscow, w1" J.ch has compounded Hungary's economic prob-
lems.
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June 17, 1975
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Bumper Grain Crop Likely
in Eastern Europe
We estimate that grain production in Eastern
Europe--excluding Yugoslavia--will reach 81 mil-
lion tons this year, compared with 75 million tons
in 1974 if favorable weather conditions prevail
during the remainder of the growing season and
harvest. Grain imports, mostly for feed, will
reach 8 million tons in fiscal 1976, only 5 percent
less than the previous year.
The southern countries of Bulgaria, Hungary,
and Romania--the major grain exporting region--will
account for the jump in output. Spring rains re-
lieved drought conditions in Bulgaria and Romania.
The soil moisture level is still low in Bulgaria,
and normal summer rainfall is needed to push crop
yields to near the 1972 record level.
On a visit to Bulgaria in late May, Under
Secretary of Agriculture Campbell observed that the
important winter wheat crop was in excellent con-
dition, but that the corn was either planted late
or stunted by cool weather. Although crop conditions
are good in Romania, it is unlikely that this year's
ambitious harvest target--20 million tons--will be
met. On about the same amount of land, Romania
produced a record 17 million tons of grain in 1972.
Crop conditions are also good in Hungary, and
we expect that wheat and corn production will match
last year's output with a reduction in acreage offset
by higher yields. Output of barley and other grains
will increase.
Grain production in the northern countries--
Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and Poland--will ap-
proach last year's record. Last fall's sowing was
June 17, 1975
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interrupted by heavy rains and as much as 500,000
to 600,000 hectares normally sown with winter wheat
had to be sown with lower yielding spring grains.
Only East Germany fulfilled its fall sowing plan.
April rains slowed spring planting in Czecho-
slovakia, but no major problems were reported by East
Germany or Poland. To boost production levels in
the north and reduce expensive grain imports, meadows,
pastures and other marginal land were sown with spring
grains, mainly barley. East Germany will harvest its
second bumper crop in a row, almost 10 million tons.
We expect that the harvest in Czechoslovakia and
Poland will fall below last year's level.
The southern countries will export most of their
increased output, and the remainder will be used to
replenish drought-depleted stocks. Almost all of the
8 million tons of grain that will be imported will go
to the northern countries. The main sources of supply
will be the Soviet Union and the US.
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CHRONOLOGY
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June 10 Brezhnev confers with visiting
Czechoslovak officials, who present
him with a medal in his first offi-
cial public activity since may 9.
Pol!.tburo member Kirilenko speaks
at Leningrad in behalf of his candi-
dac for the RSFSR Supreme Soviet.
Council of Ministers convenes in
Moscow to review the "main directions"
of a draft of the USSR's tenth Five-
Year Plan (1976-80).
North Korean party/state chief Kim
11-song returns to Pyongyang after
an extended trip that included
visits to Romania, Bulgaria, and
Yugoslavia. F__ I
Luxembourg Grand Duke Jean concludes
a six-day, state visit to the USSR.
Deputy Premier Lesechko concludes a
five-day, official visit to Czecho-
East German party chief Honecker con-
fers with visiting Soviet Deputy
Premier Tikhonov on prospects for
improved bilateral economic coopera-
June 17, 1975
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June 11 Premier Kosygin makes his speech at
the Bolshoy Theater in Moscow as a
candidate for the RSFSR Supreme Soviet.
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Germany.
Soviet and Japanese representatives
conclude three days of economic
cooperation talks in Tokyo; Japanese
involvement in the Tyumen oil project
now appears unlikely.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Puja begins
a three-day, official visit to West
Germany.
Czechoslovak party secretary Kempny
concludes an official visit to East
week.
Wife of prominent Soviet dissident
physicist Andrey Sakharov reports
that he suffered a heart attack last
the USSR.
Burmese Deputy Premier U Lwin con-
cludes a one-week, official visit to
community in the U.S.
gressmen, and leaders of the Jewish
Romanian President Ceausescu concludes
a five-day, state visit to Mexico
and flies to Washington to confer
with President Ford, a number of Con-
slavia.
East German Premier Sindermann begins
a five-day, official visit to Yugo-
June 17, 1975
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June 11
to the USSR in the fall.
Portugal announces that President
Costa Gomes will make a ntate visit
to Yugoslavia.
Secretary of the Air Force McLucas
concludes a three-day, official visit
June 12 Deputy Premier V. Novikov confers with
FRG Chancellor Schmidt, concluding a four-
day, official visit to Bonn highlighted
by a meeting of the Soviet - West German
economic commission.
cooperation.
slavia.
Bulgarian Deputy Premier Z. Zhivkov
goes to Hungary for a meeting of the
bilateral commission on economic
EC Commission President Ortoli begins
a four"day, official visit to Yugo-
Bulgaria.
Warsaw Pact Commander in Chief Yakubov-
sky concludes an official visit to
Prime Minister Wilson.
home from the US, confers with UK
Romanian President Ceausescu, en route
Soviet.
President Podgorny makes his speech
at the Bolshoy '.!heater in Moscow as
a candidate for the RSFSR Supreme
June 13 Brezhnev makes a ationwide radio-
TV address from the Kremlin in behalf
of his cand;idac for the RSFSR Supreme
Soviet. F77 I
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maritime cooperation.
Taos reports that Politburo candidate-
member Ponomarev has conferred with
visiting Israeli communist party
leader Wilnor.
Representatives of 14 nations, in-
cluding the US and the USSR, end
five days of talks in Stockholm on
prospects for enhancing international
an official visit to Romania.
A Chinese military delegation begins
FRG-GDR transit commission convenes.
Portuguese President Costa Gomes
begins a four-day, state visit to
Romania. F77 I
USSR launches Venus-10, which is
scheduled "to reach the environs of
the planet" in October.
June 14 Romania and Portugal sign a friend-
ship treaty.
Cominformists.
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Yugoslavs open, the trial of the Tuzia
cial visit to East Germany.
Vatican 'Foreign Minister' Archbishop
Casaroli concludes a six-day, offi-
June 15 Tass reports that Politburo candidate-
member Ponomarev has met with visiting
Leban-ose Communist part chief
Chaoui.
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June 15 East Gorman Premier Sindormann con-
cludes a five-day, official visit to
Yugoslavia.
Parliamentary elections ero held in
Hungary and in the Soviet republics.
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Chatting briefly with reporters while
voting in Moscow, Brozhnev says his
summit visit to the US will be "after"
the conclusion of CSCE, an event he
expects to occur "in the near future."
Chinese Premier Chou En-lai, who is
in a hospital, confers with visiting
Albanian Deputy Premier Carcani, the
head of a high-level economic delega-
tion.
June 16 Bu"jarian party/state chief Zhivkov
begins a five-day visit to Romania.
Polish Machine Industry Minister
Wrzaszczyk, whose ministry presently
is considering more than $1 billion
in potential imports from the US,
begins an 11-day, official visit to
the US.
Syrian communist party chief Bakdash
concludes an official visit to Bul-
June 17, 1975
garia.
US and Soviet delegations resume talks
at Geneva on prospects for an agree-
ment to curb modifications of the
environment to gain military advantages.
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Juno 17 Romanian Foreign Minister Macovescu
commences an official visit to Egypt.
French President Giscard d'Estaing
commences a four-day, state visit
to Poland accc!npanied by Foreign
Minister Sauvagnargues and Interior
Minister Poniatowski.
in Moscow for a brief visit.
East German party chief IiIonecker
is met by Brezhnev upon his Arrival
FUTURE EVENTS
June 19 US and the USSR to begin two days of
consultations in Moscow on Law of
the Sea issues.
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US frigate Wainwright to begin a
five-day, official port call at
Constanta, Romania.
SALT to resume at Geneva.
Denmark.
East German Foreign Minister Fischer
to commence an official visit to
June 17, 1975
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Juno 23 Bulgarian party/state chief Zhivkov
to begin a visit to Maly.
Juno 24 Premiers of CEMA member-states to
convene in Budapest for their annual
meeting. F7 I
June 25 USSR and a number of East European
states to establish diplomatic rela-
tions with Mozambique on its inde-
pendence day.
June 26 Foreign Minister Gromyko to begin a
four-day visit to Italy.
late June Belgian King Baudouin to make a.
July 2
June 17, 1975
Former West German Chancellor Brandt
expected to go to the USSR on offi-
cial business.
Trinidad-Tobago Prime Minister
Williams to begin an eight-da offi-
cial visit to the USSR.
Greek Prime Minister Karamanlis to
begin a three-day, official visit to
Bulgaria.
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July 7
Trinidad-Tobago Prime Minister Williams
to begin a six-day, official visit
to Roman a,a .
July 9 US and tM USSR to resume talks on
their Pacific Ocean fisheries prob-
July 15 Apollo-Soyuz joint space venture to
commence.
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