PRIMARY ASSUMPTIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP76B00952R000100060028-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 7, 2005
• Sequence Number: 28
• Publication Date: May 26, 1965
• Content Type: REPORT

DDI Graft
26 Mav 11,-65
MARY ASSUMPTIONS
For . the full period (1966-1980)
No all-out nuclear conflict. - No universal disarmament with true safeguards.
Radically new--and increasingly expensive--weapons
and space systems are developed, but no technological
break-through occurs of a magnitude to alter the
balance of power dramatically between U. S. and USSR.
U.S. economic expansion continues without major setbac.;
U. S. continues as the leader of the world's democratic
forces.
Gradual proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
Gradual proliferation of power centers (U.S., USSR,
Communist China, Japan, Europe, and perhaps others
with attenUnt complication' and dangers to the
world scene.
Gradual proliferation of international ' abrasive,
crisis, and small war situations (spurred variously
by comaunism, nationalism, racism,,- and radicalism).
The Industrialized nations grow richer, while most
of the underdeveloped nations' difficulties (population
explosion, economic, and social disarray, etc.) increase.
U. S. influence and presence recede In various cases in
Europe, Asia, and Africa.
- U. S. becomes more discriminating in its commitments
abroad; stakes more on certain key allies and neutrals.
GROW I
Approved For Release 2005/02/17 : CIA-RDP76B00952R000100060028-3
SECRET ?;, ,
 pproved Fc&elease 2005/0241tL DP76B001R000100060028-3
For the first five-year period (1966-1970)
USSR remain
interests.
the principal threat to U.S. national
Communist China acquires both increased stature and
influence in Asia and the world, and a modest nuclear
missile capability.
The U.S.