COAL AND ELECTRIC POWER SHORTAGES IN COMMUNIST CHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500220021-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 28, 2004
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: February 1, 1968
• Content Type: IM

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Secret
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Intelligence Memorandum
Coal and Electric Power Shortages
in Communist China
Secret
Copy No.43
ER IM 68-18
February 1968
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WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
CROUP I
[XCLUDXD FROM AUTOMATIC
DOUN(IIIADINO AND
DD LAANif (CATION
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Economic Research
February 1968
Coal and Electric Power Shortages
in Communist China
Summary
Coal and electric power shortages in Communist
China are known to have been widespread in 1967 and
early 1968. They are a part of the economic damage
-
caused by the Cultural Revolution. F
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ccasiona shutdowns
or factories because of the lack of coal and electric
power. Households are suffering from.severe shortages
of coal this winter.
These shortages result from a combination of low
,aorale in the mines, interruptions to transportation,
and violent political struggles in certain areas.
In the absence of the Cultural Revolution, production
of both coal and electric power would have risen in
1967. Instead, coal production dropped at least 10
percent and electric power output somewhat less. It
is difficult to quantify the declines on a national
basis with any precision.
Note: This memorandum was produced by CIA. It pas
prepared by the Office of Economic Research.
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Coal Shortages
1. Communist China has the third largest reserves
of coal in the world (ranking after the United States
and the USSR) and an abundance of labor to exploit
these resources. Coal provides 93 percent of China's
primary energy, with petroleum providing about 5
percent. Virtually all of the coal produced in
China is consumed domestically. About half of the
coal output is allocated to industrial uses, including
generation of electric power; between 10 and 15 per-
cent is consumed by the transportation sector,
principally railroads; and about 35 percent is avail-
able normally for household consumption (cooking and
heating) and for local handicraft industries, which
are the low-priority uses.
2. Throughout 1967 the Cultural Revolution caused
some dislocation in both the production and transport
of coal.
3. The output of coal in 1967 declined by at
least 10 percent below the estimated 1966 level of
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reflected primarily in reduced supplies for house-
hold consumption. However, reports refer to reduced
Effects on Industry
5. Other reports have cited declines in industrial
output caused by a lack of coal, and in some instances
a lack of electric Dower crea1- 9 hxr chnr+n. - ' -,
8. There is evidence that there has been some
increase in the effect on industry in the past two
months because of delays in the production and trans-
portation of coal. However, the brunt of the decline
in the availability of coal has thus far been borne
by household consumers.
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Electric Power
9. Direct evidence of declines in electric
power production attributable either to coal short-
ages or to the Cultural Revolution is scanty.
Electric power output in Communist China in 1967,
however, is unlikely to have increased above the
1966 level and probably declined moderately. Approxi-
mately 80 percent of China's electric power generating
capacity is in coal-fired thermal plants, and produc-
tion in these plants must have been adversely affected
by problems in coal supply. Normally, total industrial
output in China in 1967 would have been expected to
increase about 5 percent above the previous year.
Because of the Cultural Revolution, however, industrial
output almost certainly fell off. Thus, demand for
electric power by important industrial consumers was
less in 1967 than in 1966.
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