TRANSMITTAL OF MEMORANDUM ENTITLED 'SOUTH VIETNAM ESTIMATED MANPOWER BALANCE, AGE GROUP 15-45, 1967'

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00610R000200110017-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 18, 2006
• Sequence Number: 17
• Publication Date: June 23, 1967
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release swmmm-RDP90-0061 OR000200110017-6
I :C:2A' S ?MM: special Aaain t for Vletncoa Affairr
TncuQ Deputy Disoctc ,:t Ziate1 Li. enco
9* ' m2z1ttj k`ctl:da'3t2~r~l: itled "Couch
Victnvt Lctitn::~ J x D~ Balante$
Ig*G 167".
1. . uittcd heretritb .e tine =cmor u on tho r2mpwar
ba2~ ti In sauth Victz>an that you X-O pplvo for ta for
i.cor.:cry'a office.
uC hr m, not cxttcr.ptGcl to itibuto the derivr,d residuals by
Cec ?m'alo fucaaj. becauce the lav CeGree of accuracy tlzt uou14
be zachievcd i'x*cm existih data would xu lw rueh a dlotr2.butiota
al=oct nVunibglesso
2. r'rczco of tho data pmblx= ?nctc-d in the or=du p
thin Yetis turned out to be un erploi?eory cttdy with the con.
cluciov irdlic.-.tin t ca broc.a rtan? c of )-s sibilitiea. idorcomr
3? Xt oP;.ma ?a that surveys are currently uade way in
2aigcn to i=prov a the -data baae9 , aulaitio atatiDtica
bcecc. e available, we will hoped be its a ;*sitien to i.m.
;L c t2 Ls =tia :. ef`f'orL.
Approved For Release 2006/12/19: CIA-RDP9( -nnQ1 nRnnn?rmh j fl17-h
 Approved For Release 2006/12/19: CIA-RDP90-00610R000200110017-6
IN*t H:ILIGENCE MEMORANDUM
South Vietnam: Estimated Manpower Balance,
,e Group 15-45, 1267
23 June 1967
Summa
It is not possible at the present time to make a firm estimate
of the manpower resources available to the Viet Cong because of an
almost complete lack of population statistics on South Vietnam. Never-
theless, on the basis of certain assumptions about the sex, age and
control of the population, it is estimated that the Viet Cong have at'
best some degree of access to a pool of about 2.5 to 2.6 million
people between the ages of 15 and 45, exclusive of those currently in
Viet Cong service. Of this total, about 1.0 million are males and
1.5 million females. Almost 60 percent of these people, however,
are in contested areas where Viet Cong recruitment has become difficult.
As a result, those readily available for Viet Cong recruitment would
number only 1.0 to f.1 million consisting of 420,000 to 460,ooo males
and 620,000 to 630,000 females. V reover, about 25 percent of these
people probably are r'-ysieally unfit for service with the Viet'Cong.
Note: This memorandum was produced solely by CIA. It was prepared
by the Office-of Research and Reports and was coordinated with the
Office of Current .Intelligence and the Office of National' Estimates.
Gn?:~' 1 I
Exc1n (i:..l s.}:aa.
 QWAMWMHM~
Approved For Release 2006/12/19: CIA-RDP90-00610R000200110017-6
Availability of Statistics
1. 'Population and manpower statistics on South Vietnam are
inadequate to permit a reliable estimate of the manpower resources
available to the Viet Cong. These statistics allow such .a wide
range of Viet Cong manpower estimates that they exclude neither the
possibility that the Viet Cong are running out of useable manpower
nor the opposite possibility that they have. ample supplies of
manpowere
2. South Vietnam population statistics are rough approximations
at best and many of the'most basic data are lacking. The last
national census was in the 1930's. Since then there* has been no.
systematic study of the rural population. A partial census of
major cities was taken in l958, but there is no measure of the growth'
of the urban population. There are no estimates of the distribution
of the total (or rural) population by age or, except in the aggregate,
by sex, although some sample studies of age and. sex distribution
have been undertaken in a few urban areas. Employment data cover
only GVN military, GVN and US employed civilians, and some of the
larger industrial establishments.
Assumptions
3. In an attempt to estimate the manpower situation in
South Vietnam,. the. following assumptions-were made:
 Approved For Releas9 : CIA-RDP90-00610R000200110017-6
at The current total population of South Vietnam is
16.5 million.
b. Population totals 9.9 million (60 percent) in areas
under GVN control; 2.75 million (167 percent) in those under VC
control; and the remaining 3.85 million in contested areas.'
c. Roughly 45 percent .of the population is in the age
group 15 through 45 in South Vietnam a.3 a whole and in the controlled
and contested areas.
d. The male-female ratio for the total population and
for the population in the controlled and contested areas is 47-53
e. Present Viet Cong manpower, including military and
political personnel numbers between 400,000 and 500,000.
GVN Controlled Population
4. Of the GVN controlled population in South Vietnam of 9.9
million, an estimated 4.455 million are in the age group 15 through
45. GVN employment Is estimated to be 914;000, including the
military services, national police, revolutionary development
cadres and civil service;,and 129,000 are employed by the US including
military and civilian agencies, (Attached table gives estimated data
and detailed sources and methodology.) It is estimated that approximately
850,000 are employed in private non-agricultural occupations, and that an
I ..
Approved For Release 2006/12/19: CIA-RDP90-0061OR000200110017-6
 Approved For Releas
additional 300,000 are temporary refugees.' Given these figures
and the assumptions stated above, there is a residual of about 2.3
million persons unaccounted for in GVN controlled areas. Of-these,
slightly more than 70 percent are female -- a result of the fact
that a larger percentage of males are accounted for in.military
service. It is known that the bulk of the residual is in rural
areas and is engaged in private farming, forestry and fishing.
Because the area is presumably under GVN control, it possibly can
be assumed that this population is generally not subject. to VC
recruitment..
Population Subject to Viet Cong Recruitment
5. The population in areas under Viet Cong control and in
areas undergoing pacification (contested areas) totals about
6.6 minion, of which 2.97 are assumed to be within the age group
15-45. Estimates of the numbe-s employed by the Viet Cong are
under current scrutiny and may soon be revised. For purposes of
this paper, Viet Cong forces within the ages 15-45 are estimated
to range from 384,000 to 480,000, including regular main and local
military forces, guerrillas, administrative service units, militia,
and political cadre. The residual available population in Viet Cong'
controlled and in contested areas numbers about 2.5 million. Of
this population available for recruitment by. Viet Cong males
would make u
l
0
p
.
to 1.1 million' give
 Approved For Release 2006/1
DP90-00610R000200110017-6
6. An estimate of a million males of military age does not
at first glance support the increasing number-of reports indicating
Viet Cong recruiting difficulties. About 58 percent of these males,
that in VC-controlled areas -- exclusive of those already in service
frequent incursions therein. The readily available male population --
however, are in contested areas, according*to our asswnption on
"control" areas, and recruiting in contested areas has become
increasingly difficult as the GVN and US military forces make more
r uzal. Almost one-half of total VCcontrolled population is in
.
fit for service with the Viet Cong.
8. The population available to the Viet Cong is largely
between 620,000 and 630,000,not all of which. would be physically
I
_vLecrsza.LLy available to the VC, slightly I
than 60 percent are assumed to be in'Contested areas where VC
recruitment has become difficult. The readily available female
population, exclusive of those already in service, would range
of females for recruitment by the Viet Cong. Of a total of roughly
7? A similar situation exists with regard-to the availability
would be in the range 420,000 to 460,000. Possibly 25 percent of
these would be unfit for useful service. The remaining eligible
males in the VC-controlled areas would number less than 400,000.
the delta areae Rice. production in the delta provides a major
J,
sane
000200110017-6
 Approved For Release 20 ; ' * IA-RDP90-0061 OR000200110017-6:
revenue for the Viet Cong. Although women have always played
an important role in Vietnamese agriculture it is still necessary
to have able bodied males perform certain of the tasks in rice
farming. It is not possible, without serious loss of productivity,
from rural areas to urban areas and the build-up of military forces
the percentage of the age group 15-45 remaining in rural areas may
.be smaller than in urban areas. Since VC controlled and contested
areas are primarily rural, this suggests that a smaller percentage,
of the population in these areas than in the total population is in
control. It is possible, however, that with the shift of population
therefore, for the Viet Cong to press into service all of the
able males from the farms. 0
Limitations of the Estimate
9. All of the assumptions made in this study are important
to the results, but two of them are crucial. These are the age
distribution and the 'sex distribution of the population according
to the areas of control. In the absence of. data, we have used
the same'age distribution for the total population and for the
population under VC control, in contested areas, and under GVN
the age group 15-45. If the age group 15-45, represented, for
example, only 40 percent of the total population in VC controlled
2.5 million available military :age manpower would be reduced to about
and contested (rural) areas, instead of the 45 percent assumed,,the
?C uluiion, ana tine .t.u to L.J. million persons readily
Viet Cong recruitment would be reduced to about 900,000
6-
 Approved For Release
10. Similarly, the same sex ratio of 47 percent male to
53 percent female has been used for the total population and the
populations under VC control, in contested areas, and under GVN
control. Migration to urban areas and thr ~ra#tjng of males for
Military service has increased the percentage of females in the
rural population. The question is from which rural areas did the
population shift come? The assumption in this study as to the
male-female ratio by area is consistent with the assumption that
the GVN recruited only in the areas it controls. But some of the
GVN recruitment must have come from other areas. If females in the
VC-controlled and contested areas (almost all rural) were as much
as 60 percent of the population, instead of the 53 percent assumed,
the male population of about 1.0 million estimated to be available
for recruitment by the Viet Cong would be reduced to about 800
0
,
00.
Go.VV-"at J -r
10 DOV
 Approved For Rele
19: CIA-RDP90-0061OR000200110017-6
South Vietnam: Estimated Manpower Balance,
Age Group 15-45, 1967
Total population
2 Population, ages 15-45
3 GVN Employed
Of which :
GVN Military
GVN National Police.
GVN RD Cadres
GVN Civil Service
Male
7, 755
Ferule
8,745
3,-935,
914 881. 33
66o . 660' -
61
33 32
160 128 - 32
129 58-- 71
US Military 78
35 43
'+[ 21 -- , 26
US Civilian Agencies
4
Total Accounted for, GVN control 2,196 1,466
730
300 100- 200
Refugees
15 Total GVN controlled, ages 15-45 s 455
2, 094 2, 361
16 Not accounted for, GVN control (rural) 2,259 628
1 631
17 Total in VC controlled areas
1,238" 582 6$6
18 Total in contested areas 1,732 814
918
19 Estimated VC manpower, ages 15-45 384-480
312-384 72-96
20 Available to VC, in VC controlled and
-
Methodology is explained by line in notes on following pages,
-, .,'-
'.,/vV .L,VJ +,VO4 ?1,L~7i-1,502?
,.
R000200110017-6
xn Thousands)
 Approved For Release 2006/12/19: CIA-RDP90-0061OR000200110017-6
ne 1 Total population for 1967 as agreed upon by representatives
of the Department of Defense, Defense Intelligence Agency,
Agency for International Development and Central Intelligence
Agency. Male-female breakdown estimated to be 47 percent
male, 53 percent female -- the actual percentages that prevailed
in 1963 as reported by the GVN, National Institute of Statistics
in Vietnam Statistical Yearbook 1964-65,. Vol. 12, Saigon, 1966
(Unclassified). Although outdated, these percentages are
believed to be still valid and are similar to the current
male-female breakdown for North Vietnam (49 percent male; 51_
percent female) as estimated by the US Bureau of the Census,
Foreign Demographic Analysis Division, Estimates and Projections
of the Population of North Vietnam: 1960-1981. (Unclassified).
ne 2 Military age population includes those between ages 15-45.
It is estimated that 45 percent of the total population of
16.5 million is in the 15-45 age group. This estimate is
i Wk
SJUJ V 1iSlci iia 1yo7,
UN, Department of Economic and-Social Affairs
W
ld P
,
or
opulation
Prospects as Assessed in 1963, New York, 1966, page 128, and
.is close. to that of.43.7 percent for North Vietnam as estimated
by Census, Estimates and Projections, off. cit. The male-female
breakdown of the 15-45 age, group was, obtained by applying the
47-53 percent breakdown used for the i total population..
 Approved. For
06/12/19: CIA-RDP90-0061OR000200110017-6
Tine 3 Totals of lines 4 and 5-7.
Line 4 GVN military data include Regular Forces, Regional
Forces, CIDG, Popular Forces and .Armed Combat Youth.
Data are as of March 1967 as reported in DOD, DASD/Systems'
Analysis, Southeast Asia Programs Division Statistical
Tables, May 19, 1967, Table IA. SECRET. It was assumed
that these categories consist entirely of'males in the
age group 15-45.
lane 7 DOD, Southeast Asia Tables, op. cit. Table 1A., It
males in the age group 15-45-
Line 6
was assumed that GVN National Police consists'entirely of
RD cadre.
are for May 1967 as reported by OCO/RDC Saigon. It is
estimated that females account for 2.5;percent of total
Includes Census Grievance and.Montagnard Teams. Data
percent was calculated from the age breakdown for employme
The residual of roughly 190,000 was then decreased by 15
percent to exclude those over age 45.' The estimate of 15
reported in State, Saigon 26270) 20 May 1967. CONFIDENTIAL.
cadre from the total GVN employment figure of 950,000
the figures for GVN military, national police, and RD
as of May 1967. This estimate was made by subtracting
Total civil service estimated at roughly 190,000
pu lic sector contained in GVN,'No
 Approved For
actual percentages in 1964 were 17.6 percent female and 82.3
Yearbook 1964-65, Saigon, 1966, page 411. UNCLASSIFIED.
of Statistics, Enquctes D_,mo.ranhicues Au Vietnam en 1958,
Saigon, 1960, page 26. The male-female breakdown for the
civil service is based on the Male-female ,breakdown reported
by the GVN Civil Service Supreme Council in 1964 as presented
in GVN, National Institute of Statistics, Vietnam Statistical
:fines 8-11
it breakdown was used.
Data are as of 31 March 67 as presented in State, Saigon,
A-713, 29?May 1967, tNCLASSIFIED. The male-female breakdown
is based o
n a report of the deputy general secretary of tt
Federation of Korean '.rade Unions followi
h
ng
is visit t
Saigon in February 1967. This report states that due t
LIMLTED OFFICIAL USE. .
conscription of males, females account for 55 percent of total
US employment of Vietnamese. State. Seoul A-433,,6 April, 1967,
.ne .12 Private sector ?
non-agriculture; is estimated as part of
a residual obtained by deducting accounted-for ,~fln
po
lines 3 and 8, from the total secured Population ages 15-45 --
methodology used in State, Saigon A-322, 21 December 1966,
SECRET. For the estimate of secured populationn, see the note
in. line 15. V. the 4,455,000 secured in ages
115-451 l, 043, 000
are accounted for in -lines land 8..: It as estimated that
 Approved For Releas
25 percent of the residual of 3,412,000 is employed in the
private sector in non-agricultural, occupations. State,
Saigon A-322, 21 December 1966. SECRET. The male-female
distribution of this residual, assumed to be 50-50 on the
basis of fragmentary data which suggests a higher percentage
of males in this group than in the total population. In
June 1965, 69 percent, of the workers surveyed in private
enterprises in Saigon were male end.31 percent female, while
private enterprises surveyed in eight provinces of southern
South Vietnam showed a male-female breakdown of 60.40
percent
and a similar survey in eight provinces of central
South Vietnam showed a?50-50 percent breakdown. GVNNational
Institute of Statistics, Evolution de 1'Economie du Vietnam
en 1 6 Saigon,.1966, pages 44-45. UNCI;ASS
LMD9 The average
of these thre
e surveys yields a 60740 percent male-female
breakdown. It is' assumed that by- tune 1967 this Percent
e
ag
~j ea saown probably changed to the 50. SO ?er
--
n
ce
t
women entered the labor market and males continued to be
conscripted.
Line 13 The cumulative total number of refugees as of 28 February
was 1,789,058. USAID, Public Administration
Bulletin
Vie ~nam, No. 6, l April 1967) Page 86.,_UNCLASSZU)D. Of this
Of this
tot
l
a
91 000
5, have returned to their original
ri_L_La-ap-c r%+
000200110017-6
 Approved,For Release 2006/12/19: CIA-RDP90-00610R000200110017-6.
temporary refugees. Although the age-sex ratios are not
available on the total temporary refugee population, a
recent survey conducted by the Special Commissariat for
Refugees in conjunction with OCO indicated that children
under age 16 represented 48 percent of the surveyed
refugee population. Reducing the total by 1+8.percent and
an additional 15 percent to account for those over 45
years yields an estimated 300,000 temporary refugees, ages
15-45. The sex ratio was taken from the survey which showed
that females were in the majority in every age group and
outnumbered men in ages 20-3l. by 2 to 1.
xe 14 The sum of lines 3, 8, 12-13.
1e 15 Total secured population is estimated at 60 percent
of total population as of February 1967 by DOD, DASD/Systems
Analysis, Southeast Asia Programs Division Statistical
Tables, Table 6B, May 19, 1967. SECRET. Age group 15-45
was estimated at 45 percent as in the total population.
e 16. The difference between lines 14 and 15,
e 17 Estimates of VC controlled population range from 15.3
percent to almost 18 percent as of the end of February 1967,
This yields an absolute VC controlled population in the range
2.5 to 3 million. Using a median of this range, 2.75'million and
applying the 45 percent factor for the. age group 15-45 yields a
VC controlled population in this age group of 1.238 million, The
male-female'ratio used was that for the total population, 47-53
perrcenta.
 Approved For R& 12119: CIA-RDP90-0061OR000200110017-6
Line 18 Population in contested areas, ages 15-45, is a
residual of line 2 minus lines 15 and 17.
Line 19 VC manpower estimates are tentative. Total VC manpower
of from 400,000-500,000 includes VC main and local forces.,,
guerrillas., administrative service units, militia and political
cadre. In order to obtain a male-female breakdown it was
assumed that there are a negligible number of females in VC
main and local forces and that females account for the
following percentages of the other categories; guerrillas,
25 percent; administrative service units, 10 percent; militia
33 percent; and political cadre, 13 percent. Based on a Rand
Corporation study of 1348 Quy Chanh, it is estimated that
96 percent of total VC manpower is between the ages of 15.45.
and Memorandum RMr4830-ISA/ARPA. Viet Cong Motivation and
Morale: The Special Case of". Chieu Hoi, May 1966, page 164.?-
CONFIDENTIAL.
Line 20 The difference between line 19:and the sum of lines