THE ANGOLAN SITUATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79S00427A000500030011-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 24, 2005
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: May 8, 1961
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2005/04/18 : CIA-RDP79SO0427A000500030011-0
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
The Angolan Situation
8 May 1961
The rebellion in northern Angola, which has been
going on for nearly two months, shows no signs of sub-
siding. Portuguese official releases are known greatly
to have understated the casualties; it is probable that
several hundred whites and several thousand Africans
have been killed. The terrorists are able to move more
or less freely,,with the acquiescence or cooperation of
the local native population, through an area about 175.
miles and up to 130 miles wide, extending south from
the border with the Congo. Scattered attacks and num-
erous arrests have been reported in the south, but
several factors--the openness of the terrain, the more
efficient administrative control, and the relative ab-
sence of economic discontent-=have so far prevented
the southward spread of all-out rebellion.
The rebellion, which began in February, was re-
portedly instigated by the Leopoldville-based Angola
Peoples Union.
State Department review completed
Approved For Rel+ase 2005/04/18 : CIA-RDP79S00427[A000500030011-0
25X1
25X1
25X1
 25X1
Approved For Release 2005/04/18 : CIA-RDP79SO0427A000500030011-0
that less than a dozen agitators were sent into Angola
from the Congo. We have no information on the numbers
involved in the rebellion, but those with firearms.
would probably be no more than a few hundred. There
are undoubtedly many more armed with primitive weapons.
anti-Portuguese sentiment has been aggravated by fall-
ing cash incomes, the result of steadily declining
coffee prices. The American consul in Luanda believes
that the repressive measures undertaken by both the
military forces and white vigilante groups will ulti-
mately drive more natives into rebellion. There are
some 600,000 natives in the northern area, and about
5,00Q whites. Angola's total population is approxi-
mately 4 million natives and 110,000 whites.
The two districts where the unrest is concentrated
grow most of the Angolan coffee crop--the main export
from the province and the chief dollar-earner for
Portugal. Harvesting of the current crop should be-
gin in May and last through October; unless order can
be restored quickly, much of it will be lost. A short-
fall in coffee production would have a disastrous ef-
fect on the Angolan economy, which is already in a
slump as a result of a drop in prices for most of its
agricultural exports. Moreover, loss of the crop would
Approved For R
25X1
 25X1
Approved For Release
lead to increased unemployment among both Africans and
whites; it might thus intensify discontent among the
former and separatist sentiment among the latter.
Portugal is reinforcing its army contingents in
Angola although it is hampered by logistical difficul-
25X1
25X1
Portuguese military officials` re-
centlyexpressed'confidence that the situation could
be brought under control; however, they do not expect
significant success until the beginning of the dry sea-
son this month, and they admit the operation will take
at least three or four months.
It is questionable whether the Portuguese economy
can bear the strain of a long military campaign to
suppress unrest in Angola. The American embassy in
Lisbon believes that economic collapse could come in
less than two years unless order is restored.
Pro-regime elements in Portugal, who favor re-
forms in the overseas provinces and at home have been
blocked, temporarily at least, by cabinet changes on
Approved For Release 2005/04/18 : CIA-RDP79SO0427A000500030011-0
25X1
25X1
 Approved For Rele 00500030011-0
13 April and 3 May. The reshuffle, in which Salazar
dropped defense minister Gen. Botelho Moniz, the
leading advocate within the cabinet of reform, and
took over his portfolio and also replaced the Foreign,
Interior, Army and Overseas ministers and chief of
staff of the armed forces, represents a move to the
far right. For Portuguese Africa it indicates that
the regime will vigorously pursue a "stand firm" pol-
icy. Moniz' ouster was in part due to his disagree-
ment with Salazar over increasing military commitments
in Africa. The new foreign minister, Alberto Franco
Nogueira, belongs to the "patriotic" school which
maintains that reforms overseas can be instituted only
if Portugal can avoid giving the impression that it is
yielding to foreign pressure. The regime has also
gone on record as determined to pacify Angola before
it will consider the question of reforms.
25X1
25X1
Approved For Rele se 2005/04/ : - 00500030011-0
25X1
 Approved For Release 2005/04/18 : CIA-RDP79SO0427A000500030011-0
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/04/18 : CIA-RDP79SO0427A000500030011-0
 Approved For Release 2005/04/18 : CIA-RDP79SO0427A000500030011-0
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2005/04/18 : CIA-RDP79SO0427A000500030011-0