LETTER TO GENERAL G. C. THOMAS FROM ALLEN W. DULLES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85S00362R000600110012-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 6, 2004
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: October 26, 1957
• Content Type: LETTER

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Copy No. 9#
FOOT ') C ?~~(
General G. C. Thomas, USMC
Director, Not Evaluation Subcommittee
Room 2t915. The Pentagon
Washington 2% D. C.
Dear General Thomas:
At its meeting on L2 October the Intelligence Advisory Cosraraittee,
in the light of year memorandum of 18 July 19 5?, considered the question
of whether or not the contributions to NIE 11-4-57 or the pd of
National Estimates draft of that estimate indicated that there were sub-
stantial changes in Soviet gross capabilities. The IAC agreed that the
statement set forth below should be forwarded to you at this time,
Now intelligence acquired since completion of
S_ME 11.6.57, an reflected in the contributions to
1E 11--4-57 and the Board draft of the military section
of that estimate, is likely to cause, changes in our esti-
mates affecting Soviet gross capabilities for attack on
the continental US in mid-1960. as follows:
a. Composition of Long-Range Bomber Force.
Co tributioss indicate that the estimated cowqesieiun
of the Soviet long-range bomber force in mid-1968
may be considerably different from that given in
SNIE 11.6.57. The number of BADGER jet medium
bombers may be considerably in excess of the 700
previously estimated, while the number of BISON
and BEAR heavy bombers may be considerably fewer
than the 800 previously estimated. Such changes Lis
composition would affect the over-ell load-carrying
capacity of the striking force and the tactics which
could be en loyed in staging and carrying out the
attacks.
rI 177
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b. Availability of ICB*. Contributions indicate
that the exti noted date of fir;t operational a lability
of Soviet ICBUs may be earlier than 1960-1961 as
previously estimated. Such a cage would require
inclusfoa of the ICBM in estimated Soviet intercosti-
nantal strike capabilities for mid-1960.
As a result of further analysis. there may also ba a exsil
increase in the number of Soviet missile-Iaunchtng submarines
given in Sly 11-6-57 for mid-1960, but a small decrease in
the number of uuclaar-powered missile-launching subznartn.s.
Sincerely yours
Allen W. Dulles
Chair"
I atelligence Advisory Committee
Drafted in IAC
23 Oct 1957
Distribution:
O&1 - Addressee
1 - Mr. Montague
1 -O/Si
1 - G/CI
I- I
1 -Signer's File
1 - Exec. Reg.
1 - IAC IS t/
TOP SECRET
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IKTCLLIG=$CZ ADVISORY `CbMMITTZZ
yq*A7 UM TOR THZ IINTZLUGZNCZ I RT COUWTTEIP,
J$CTt Review of $= 11-4-37
Rtrr.RZNCE: IAC-M-297. flan 1
1. At the 9 July meeting of the IAC it ;& tentatively agreed
f
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or
es
seal review of SHIR 11-4-57, "Sa ltidsO9 Capsbl h
Ask oa the Coatinental US in Mid -1960.
smb)sct to G.s.ral Thomas' conllrmation
1hm, as a practical shatter. the NW.= wo
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rot be undo r V,
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y riot be In
1-4-57 in its forth-
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toy is hereto.
ra=
s_ . r will be r.coosider ` 1$ Y !S of "PAS
OW IAC* inurMAM441 f01lowtM eorste -- t1 . +o.
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