INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE PROGRESS REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85S00362R000200140025-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 4, 2002
• Sequence Number: 25
• Publication Date: October 8, 1952
• Content Type: REPORT

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IAC-PR-27
3 October 1952
INTFILIGRNCE ADVISORY COMITTEE
PROGRESS REPORT
PROJECTS COMPLETED
1.
2.
3.
4,
5.
SE-32:
NIE-35/2:
N1E-58:
N1E-69:
5E-33:
Consequences of Communist Control over South Asia,
published 3 October 1952.
Probable Developments in Indochina through Mid-1953,
published 29 August 1952.
Relations Between the Chinese Communist Regime and
the USSR: Their Present Character and Probable
Future Courses,published 10 September 1952.
Probable Developments in North Africa published
12 September 1952.
PROJECTS IN PROCESS
Prospects for Survival of Mossadeq Regime in Iran
Priority: Crash*
Status: Requested by NSC to be considered at
special IAC meeting at 10:30 Wednesday, 8 October.
Board draft was circulated to IAC agencies on
4 October. IAC representatives met on 6 October.
Priorities used in decreasing order of urgency are:
Crash, Urgent, Routine, and Deferred. (Note: on the basis
of experience we propose to reduce the priorities to the
above thereby eliminating "high", which formerly appeared
between "Urgent" and "Routine.")
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8 October 1952
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6. NIE-40: Potential Military, Economic, and Scientific
Accretions to the USSR Resulting from the
Lguisition of Western Europe in the Fore-
seeable Future
Priority: Routine
Status: Scheduled by NNE in late May 1951 (see
Item 14, IAC-D-1, dated 1 November 1950). Referred
for action to RIC in June 1951. EIC contribution
has been received. A draft is under consideration
in 0/NE.
7. NIR-42/1: The Current Situation in Albania
Priority: Urgent
Status: Revision of NIR-42, published 20 November
1951, requested by the Department of State. By
memorandum dated 19 September, 0/ig recommended the
preparation of a slant without recourse to terms of
reference and prior IAC representatives meeting.
All agencies agreed to this procedure on 22 September.
A draft is under consideration in 0/NE.
8. NIE-45: Probable Attitudes and Policies of the Free World
toward the East-West Conflict
Priority: Routine
Status: At the IAC meetings on 14 and 24 April (IAC-M-67,
para. 6, and IAC-M-68, para. 1), it was agreed that an
estimate on this general subject would replace NIE-45,
cancelled by the IAC. Terms of reference were prepared
by ONI and submitted to OftE on 5 May. On 13 May, 0/NE
circulated these with recommendations for modifications.
All agencies concurred. Board action on revised terms
of reference has been deferred pending progress on
NIE-64 (Part II).
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October 1952
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9. N-L-7: Communist Intentions and Capabilities in Asia
Priority: Routine
10. NIE-56: Likelihood of Loss of Important Economic Resources
of the Far East
PrialLE: Routine
Status: A series of estimates to cover this subject
authorized by the IAC on 11 October at the request of
G-2. Contributions to Part I (Economic) are being
handled through the EIC. EIC contribution was received
on 24 April. A draft is under consideration in 0/NE.
11, NIE-59: Relative Strategic Importance of East-West Trade to
the Soviet Orbit and to the Rest of the World
Priority: Routine
Status: Initiated in response to NSC requirement.
On 16 November the Project was referred to the EIC
by the IAC representatives. The draft of the ETC
working group was received in 0/NE on 3 October and
is now under review. The EIC approved draft is
expected about 16 October.
12. NIE-63: France's Prospective Ability to Play a Major Role in
the Western Security: System
Priority: Routine
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 13 March at the
suggestion of the Board. IAC representatives met on
terms of reference on 7 April. All contributions have
now been received. A draft is under consideration in
0/NE.
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8 October 1952
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13. NIE-64 Soviet Bloc Capabilities, through Mid-1953
(Part I):
Priority: Urgent
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 13 March at the
suggestion of the Board of National Estimates. Esti-
mated date of publication: late October. IAC repre-
sentatives have met on a draft And have cleared most
of body of text. They will reconvene on "Conclusions"
at an early date.
14. NIE-64 Probable Soviet Bloc Courses of Action through
(Part II): Mid-1953
Priority: Urgent
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 13 March at the
suggestion of the Board. Target date: mid-November.
A draft is under consideration in 0/NE.
15. NIE-65: Soviet Bloc Capabilities, through 1957
Priority: Routine
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 13 March at the
suggestion of the Board. IAC representatives approved
terms of reference on 6 June. Subject to IAC approval,
Defense contribution now due 1 December; OIR.and 0/RR
contributions now due 15 December. (Note: Defense
agencies are being canvassed to ascertain desirability'
of changing termination date of estimate from 1957 to
1956 to conform to date of medium term plans).
16. NIE-70: Conditions and Trends in Lating America Affecting US
Security
Priority: Routine
Status: Initiated pursuant to paragraph 2 f of Board
Program of Estimates circulated on 5 May 1952 and IAC
action on 0/NE memorandum dated 29 April. Target date:
15 October. A draft is under consideration in 0/NE.
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8 October 1952
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17. NIE-71: Probable Outlook for Italy
Priority: Routine
Status: Initiated purusant to paragraph 2d. of Board
Program of Estimates for Remainder of 1952, circulated
on 5 May 1952. Contributions are under review in 0/NE.
18. NIE-72: Probable Developments in the Union of South Africa
Priority: Routine
Status: This estimate was projected in the Program of
Estimates for the Remainder of 1952. On 21 May the IAC
concurred in scheduling the estimate. IAC representatives
met on 6 October. The revised draft will be forwarded
about 9 Odtdber to the IAC for consideration.
19. NIE-73: Conditions and Trends in the Middle East Affecting US
Security
Priority: Routine
Status: The Board recommended to the IAC on 26 June the
scheduling of this estimate. IAC concurred on 3 July,
on which date the IAC representatives met on terms of
reference. Contributions were all in by 9 September.
A draft is being prepared in 0/NE.
20. NIE-74: Probable Developments in Burma through 1953
Priority: Routine
Status: Requested by State and approved by the IAC on
30 September. Target date: 15 Deceuber. IAC represen-
tatives approved terms of reference on 1 October. Con-
tributions are due on 10 November.
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SE-C-R-E-T
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MC-PR-27
8 October 1952
B. Scientific Intelligence Estimates
Except as otherwise noted, the following projects were initiated
by CIA and approved by SIC for production.
Completed
21. Foreign Activities and Potential in Cloud Explosives
Published 29 August 1952
22. Status of Soviet Medical Research
Estimated Date of Publication: October,1952
Status: Concurred in by JMSIC on 1 August 1952
23. Status of Soviet ,BW Program
*ending
The following projects will be referred to the SEC on 16 October 1952
for determination of future course of action:
Published 29 August 1952
24. Status of Soviet Developments in the Field of Physics
Status: Contributions received from SIC agencies.
25. Status of Soviet CW Program
Status: Preliminary draft not concurred in by JCWIC. Revised
draft, prepared following receipt of new Army and Air Force data.
26. Status of Soviet Metallurgy Program
Status: Terms of reference approved by the ad hoc committee on
1 November 1951. Contributions have been received from SIC
agencies.
27, Development and Utilization of Science in the Soviet Union
Other Pending Projects:
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IAC
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8 October 1952
IAC-PR-27
C. Economic Intelligence Estimates
29. Economic Capabilities for War of the USSR and its Satellites
25X1
D. Other Items of Concern to the Committee
25X1
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IAC-PR-27
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IAC-PR-28
14 November 1952
ADDENDUM
PROJECTS IN PROCESS
1. SIE-5 (Formerly NIE-60, Part I): Soviet Air Defense Capabilities
l952-l95L.
25X1
Status: Initiated by OSI and approved by the IAC on
1 November 1951]
IAC representatives completed
action on , e Text was considered by the IAC
on 30 October, and referred back to the IAC representatives
for revision of the conclusions. Revised conclusions were
forwarded to the IAC under cover of memorandum dated
12 November 1952.
2. SIE-6 (Formerly NIE-60, Part III): Soviet Programs to Disperse
Industry and Stockpile
Status: Requested by State and authorized by the IAC
on 15 November 1951. IAC representatives approved terms
of reference on 27 December, The ORE contribution was
received and reviewed. On the basis of its efforts to
produce a draft the Board concluded that this estimate
should be cancelled and discussion inaugurated with
ORE to examine further the critical aspects of this
problem, namely the location of Soviet industry, the
Soviet transportation system, and the Soviet stockpiling
program,
S-E-C-R-E-T
IAC-PR-28
14 November 1952
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IAC-PR-28
14 November 1952
ADD MUM
PROJECTS IN PROCESS
1. SIE-5 (Formerly NIE-60, Part I): Soviet Air Defense Capabilities
1952-1954
Status: Initiated by OSI and approved by the IAC on
1 November 1951
IAC representatives completed
action on 25 September. Text was considered by the IAC
on 30 October, and referred back to the IAC representatives
for revision of the conclusions. Revised conclusions were
forwarded to the IAC under cover of memorandum dated
12 November 1952,
2. SIE-6 (Formerly NIE-60, Part III): Soviet Programs to Disperse
Industry and Stockpile
Status: Requested by State and authorized by the IAC
on 15 November 1951. IAC representatives approved terms
of reference on 27 December. The ORB contribution was
received and reviewed. On the basis of its efforts to
produce a draft the Board concluded that this estimate
should be cancelled and discussion inaugurated with
ORR to examine further the critical aspects of this
problem, namely the location of Soviet industry, the
Soviet transportation system, and the Soviet stockpiling
program.
S-E-C-R-E-T
IAC-PR-28
14 November 1952
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IAC-PR-28
14 November 1952
.ADDENDUM
PROJECTS IN PROCESS
1. SIE-5 (Formerly NIE-60, Part I): Soviet Air Defense Capabilities
1952-1954
Status: Initiated by OSI and approved by the IAC on 25X1
1 November 1951./
/ IAC representatives completed
action on 25 September. Text was considered. by the IAC
on 30 October, and referred back to the IAC representatives
for revision of the conclusions. Revised conclusions were
forwarded to the IAC under cover of memorandum dated
12 November 1952.
2. SIE-6 (Formerly NIE-60, Part III): Soviet Programs to Disperse
Industry and Stockpile
Status: Requested by State and authorized by the IAC
on 15 November 1951. IAC representatives approved terms
of reference on 27 December. The ORE contribution was
received and reviewed. On the basis of its efforts to
produce a draft the Board concluded that this estimate
should be cancelled and discussion inaugurated with
ORE to examine further the critical aspects of this
problem, namely the location of Soviet industry, the
Soviet transportation system, and the Soviet stockpiling
program.
S-E-C-R-E-T
IAC-PR-28
14 November 1952
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IAC-PR-28
14 November 1952
ADDENDUM
PROJECTS IN PROCESS
1. SIE-5 (Formerly NIE-60, Part I): Soviet Air Defense Capabilities
1952-1954
Status: Initiated by OSI and approved by the IA0 on
1 November 1951./
/IAC representatives completed
?TETIon on 25 September. Text was considered by the IAC
on 30 October, and referred back to the IAC representatives
for revision of the conclusions. Revised conclusions were
forwarded to the IAC under cover of memorandum dated
12 November 1952.
2. SIE-6 (Formerly NIE-60, Part III): Soviet Programs to Disperse
Industry and Stockpile
Status: Requested by State and authorized by the IAC
on 15 November 1951. IAC representatives approved terms
of reference on 27 December. The ORB contribution was
received and reviewed. On the basis of its efforts to
produce a draft the Board concluded that this estimate
should be cancelled and discussion inaugurated with
ORB to examine further the critical aspects of this
problem, namely the location of Soviet industry, the
Soviet transportation system, and the Soviet stockpiling
program.
S-E-C-R-E-T
IAC-PR-28
14 November 1952
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C,
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IAC-PR-28
14 November 1952
ADDENDUM
PROJECTS IN PROCESS
1. SIE-5 (Formerly NIE-60, Part I): Soviet Air Defense Capabilities
1952-1954
Status: Initiated by OSI and approved by the IAC on
1 November 19511
/IAC representatives completed
action on 25 September. Text was considered by the IAC
on 30 October, and referred back to the IAC representatives
for revision of the conclusions. Revised conclusions were
forwarded to the IAC under cover of memorandum dated
12 November 1952.
2. SIE-6 (Formerly NIE-60, Part III): Soviet Programs to Disperse
Industry and Stockpile
Status: Requested by State and authorized by the IAC
on 15 November 1951. IAC representatives approved terms
of reference on 27 December, The ORB contribution was
received and reviewed. On the basis of its efforts to
produce a draft the Board concluded that this estimate
should be cancelled and discussion inaugurated with
ORB to examine further the critical aspects of this
problem, namely the location of Soviet industry, the
Soviet transportation system, and the Soviet stockpiling
program.
S-E-C-R-E-T
IAC-PR-28
14 November 1952
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