INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE PROGRESS REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85S00362R000200140024-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 4, 2002
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: August 14, 1952
• Content Type: REPORT

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IAC-PR-26
14 August 1952
INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE
PROGRESS REPORT
1. NIE-55/l: Communist Capabilities and Probable Courses of Ac on ?~
is
2.. NIE-67: Probable Developments in Venezuela, published 31 July\1952.
3. Statement on Intelligence Deficiencies on NIE-60: "Civil Defense in
the USSR" (IAC-M-79, D-53, D-5371, D-53
On 14 August 1952 the IAC approved the report of the post-
mortem meeting held by IAC representatives. CIA/ORR was
designated as the focal point.
4. Report of the Ad Hoc Committee to Survey Existing Arrangements Relating
to Production of Scientific and Technical Intelligence (IAC--,- 9)
On 14 August 1952 the IAC approved this report. It was
requested that the., IAC members transmit the names of
regular and alternate members of the Scientific Estimates
Committee to the DCI, Attention: Secretary, IAC.
5. Terms of Reference of the Intelligence Working Group for Support of
the Economic Defense Advisory Committee IAC-M-79
Statements from State and-G-2 were noted at the IAC
meeting of 14 August.
6. Annual Report of the Economic Intelligence Committee (IAC-M-79)
On 14 August 1952 the IAC members noted this report.
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A. National Intelligence Estimates
7. NIE-35/2: Probable Developments in Indochina
Priority: High*
Status: IAC agreed to schedule this estimate on 11 June.
Terms of reference were approved by the IAC representatives
on 20 June. Contributions have been received. A draft is
due to the Board on 15 August.
8. NIE-40: Potential. Military, Economic, and Scientific Accretions to
the USSR Resulting from the Ac uc~ tion of Western Europe
in the Foreseeable Future
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Priority: Routine
Status: Sc:.eduled by O/NE in late May 1951 (see Item 14,
IAC-D-1, dated 1 November 1950). Referred for action to
EIC in June 1951. EIC contribution has been received. A
draft is being prepared in 0/NE. Target date for draft to
the IAC representatives: 15 September.
9. NIE-45: Probable Attitudes and Policies of the Free World toward
the East-West Conflict
Priority: Routine
Status: At the IAC meetings on l4 and 24 April. (IAC-M-67,
5a-= 6, and IAC-M-68, para. 1), it was agreed that an
estimate on this general subject would replace NIE-45,
cancelled by the IAC. Terms of reference were prepared
by ONI and submitted to 0/NE on 5 May. On 13 May, 0/
circulated these with recommendations for modifications.
All agencies concurred. Board action on revised terms of
reference has been deferred pending progress on NIE-64
(Part II).
*Priorities used in decreasing order of urgency
are: Crash; Urgent, High, Routine and Deferred
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10. NIE-47: Communist Intentions and Capabilities in Asia
Priority: Routine
11. NI_E-56: Likelihood of Loss of Important Economic resources of the
`r ar Eas J
12. NIE-58:
13. NIL-59:
Priorri.ty: Routine
Status: A series of estimates to cover this subject author-
ized by the IAC on 11 October at the request of C-2. Contri-?
butions to Part I (7conomic) are being handled through the
EIC. EIC C'Of Sri ut1On was re:c.eived on 2y April. Subject to
T.AC approval, the Board of Nat ional Estimates, on 23 July,
approved the production of several estimates covering spe-
ci.fic areas in lieu of an omnibus estimate having several
part- as previously planned.. Staff' draft will. reach Board
at end of August.
Relations Between the Chinese Cormainist egime and the
USS' : i'hoi.r Presen, Character and Probable future Courses
Priority: Routine
Status* !t meeting of the lAC representatives has been
scheduled for 18 August to discuss a draft of this estimate.
Relative Strategic Importance of Ea st-t\+e- t Trade to the
Soviet Orbit and to the Rest of the World
Priority: Routine
Status:
Initiated in response to NSC requirement. ()i! 1 November, the project was referred to the RIO by the IAC
representatives. Target date for TIC re:ri.ev,T of the final-
paper and presentation of O/iRE has been. moved to 21 August.
14. NIL-61: Consequences of communist Control over the Indian Sub-
continent
Priority: Routine
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Status: Authorized by the IAC on 20 December at the request
of State. The IAC representatives met on 14 July. State's
suggested revision received 29 July and has been circulated
for Board consideration.
15. NIE-63: France's Prospective Ability to Play a Major Role in the
Western Security System
Priority: Routine
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 13 March at the suggestion
of the Board. IAC representatAves met on terms of reference
on 'r April. Awaiting State Contribution.
16. NIE-64 Soviet Capabilities for General War, through Mid 1953
(Part I):
Priority: High
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 13 March at the suggestion
of the Board. Target date: 1 September. Board concluded
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its review of Staff draft on 6 August. A meeting of the
IAC representatives is projected for 25 A--..-.gust-
17. NIE-64
Probable Soviet Bloc Courses of Action t'irough Mid-1953
(Part II):
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 13 March at the suggestion
of the Board of National Estimates. Target date 15 September
IAC representatives approved terms of reference on 2 May.
Contributions have been received. A draft is being prepared.
in 0/`NE.
18. NIE-65: Soviet Bloc Capabilities, through 1957
Priority: Routine
Status: Authorized by the IAC on. 13 March at the suggestion
of the Board. IAC representatives approved ternis of reference
6 June. Defense contribution due 26 September; OIR contri-
bution due 1"( October; and O/RR contribution due 31 October.
19. NIE-69: Probable Developments in French north Africa, Spanish Morocco,
and Libya
Priority: High
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Status: Initiated by the Office of National Estimates and
approved by the IAC on 24 April. A draft is being considered
in O/NE. IAC agencies should receive draft about 15 August.
20. NIE-70: Conditions and Trends in Latin America Affecting US Security
Priority: Routine
Status: Initiated pursuant to paragraph 2f of Program of
Estimates for the Remainder of 1952 circulated 5 May 1952
and IAC action on O/NE memorandum dated 29 April. Target
date: 15 October.(as revised by IAC on 24 July). Draft
terms of reference were approved by the IAC representatives
on 13 May. All contributions have been received. A draft
is being prepared in O/NE. Target date for submission to
agencies: 1 September.
21. NIE-71: Probable Outlook for Italy
Priority: Routine
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Status: Initiated pursuant to paragraph 2d. of. Program of
Estimates for the Remainder of 1952 circulated 5 May 1952.
Draft terms of reference were approved by the IAC represen-
tatives on 20 May. Contributions are due on 20 August.
22. NIE-72: Probable Developments in the Union of South Africa
Priority; Routine
Status: This estimate was projected in tn-~ Program of
Estimates for the remainder of 1952. On 21 May the IAC con-
curred in scheduling the estimate. Target date: 1 September.
IAC representatives approved terms of reference on 24 June.
Contributions were all in by 29 July. A draft is being pre-
pared in O/NE.
23. NIE-73: Conditions and Trends in the Middle East Affecting US
Security US Officials Only
Priority: Routine
Status: The Board recommended to the IAC on 26 June the
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scheduling of this estimate. IAC concurred on 3 July, on
which date the IAC representatives met on terms of reference.
Contributions are due on 2 September.
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B. Scientific Intelligence Estimates
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IAC-PR-26
14 August 1952
Except as otherwise noted, the following projects were
initiated by CIA and approved by SIC for production.
24. Foreign Activities and Potential in Cloud Explosives
Estimated Date of Publication: August 1952
Status: Initiated by SIC in May 1951. CIA draft produced with assis-
tance of SIC agencies, circulated to the interested SIC members on
14 July for comment and/or concurrence. The SIC members concurred in
report 8 August 1952.
25. Status of Soviet Medical Research
Estimated Date of Publication: August 1952
Status: Concurred in by JMSIC on 1 August 1952
?26. Status of Soviet Developments in the Field of Physics
Estimated Date of Publication: September 1952
Status: Contributions received from SIC agencies. First draft will
be circulated to SIC members by end of August.
27. Status of Soviet BW Program
Estimated Date of Publication: August 1952
Status: Prepared in CIA on basis of contributions received from SIC
agencies. Revised draft prepared by CIA, being coordinated in JBWIC.
28. Status of Soviet CW Program
Estimated Date of Publication: September 1952
Status: Preliminary draft not concurred in by JCWIC. Revised draft
will be prepared on 1 September following receipt of new Army and Air
Force data.
29. Status of Soviet Metallurgy Program
Estimated Date of Publication: November 1952
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Status: Terms of reference approved by the ad hoc committee on
1 November 1951, Contributions from SIC agencies are expected by
1 September. (The part of this paper which covers Powder Metallurgy
requested by SIC in May 1951 was forwarded to SIC members l4 July.)
30. Development and Utilization of Science in the Soviet Union
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Estimated Date of Publication: November 1952
Status: Upon completion of the foregoing reports, CIA will write
first draft for SIC consideration.
Economic Intelligence EstInates
32. Economic Capabilities for War of the USSR and its Satellites
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D. Other Items of Concern to the Committee
34. Paper Mills and Fabrication and Source Control
M-77, D-5
On 24. July the IAC approved recommendations (IAC-D-54) for the
establishment of an interagency source control mechanism with each
participating agency designating a single individual to cooperate
with the Source Control Section, CIA.
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14 August 1952
PROJECTS IN PROCESS
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1. SIE-5 (Formerly NIE-60, Part I): Soviet Air Defense Capabilities
1,052-1954
Status: Initiated by O/SI and approved by the IAC on
1 November 1951. IAC representatives' working group has
finished a new draft which will be disseminated on 25X1
28 August. The Board, assisted by two scientific con-
sultants, will meet with. agency representatives during
the week of 22 Se terr~be
2. SIE-6 (Formerly NITS-6O, Part III): Soviet Programs to Disperse
Industry and S cock ile
Status: Requested by State and authorized by the IAC on
15 November 1551. IAC representatives approved terms of
reference on 27 December. O/RR contribution has been
received and is under review.
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14 August 1952