KEY INTELLIGENCE QUESTIONS FOR FISCAL YEAR 1975

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 26, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 9, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
No Foreign Ddssem
DIRECTOR of CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Key Intelligence Questions
For
Fiscal Year 1975
-~6eereC~
9 August 1974
DCI/NIO 1751-74
Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200OW01-4
 Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
 Approved For Release 2004/O N~,-RDP82M00311 R000200060001-4
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
KEY INTELLIGENCE QUESTIONS
for
FISCAL YEAR 1975
SECRET
Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
 Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
SECRET
Table of Contents
Page
Introduction .................................................. ...... 1
First Substantive Objective* ................................... ....... 3
Soviet: Political Dynamics ...... ..................................... 3
Second Substantive Objective ........ ....................... . ....... 4
Soviet: Strategic Objectives ..... ............................. ....... 4
Soviet: ICBM Systems ...................................... ..... .. 4
Soviet: Nuclear Weapons ....................... ....... ........ ... 4
Soviet: Long Range and Naval Aviation .......... ..... ........ . .... 4
Soviet Naval Systems ........................ ....................... 4
Soviet: Strategic Air and Missile Defenses ............. ................ 5
Soviet Weapons Acquisition Process .......................... ....... 5
Arms Agreement Negotiations ...................................... 5
Europe: Warsaw Pact-NATO--MBFR ..................... ....... 5
Warsaw Pact-NATO) Balance .................................. ... 6
Eastern Europe ............................................... .... 6
Third Substantive Objective ............................................ 7
China: Internal Politics and Foreign Policy ................. ....... 7
Chinese Military Capabilities . ......... .. ........ ....... ..... 7
Fourth Substantive Objective ... .......................... .. 8
The Middle East and South Asia ......................... 8
Southeast Asia ......
Latin America ............................................... ...... 10
Fifth Substantive Objective ............................................ 11
Prospects for Inflation and Recession ................. ....... . ..... 11
Multilateral Trade and Financial Negotiations ......... ..... . ..... ] 1
Major Oil Exporters' Activities .................................... 11
Policies of Producers of Important :Raw Materials Other Than Petroleum 11
Effects of Price Changes on Major LDCs ......................... .. 11
Foreign Demand for US Agricultural Products ................. ... 12
Foreign Trade Opportunities ................................. ....... 12
Additional Key Intelligence Questions ............................ 13
Nuclear Proliferation .............................................. . 13
Law of the Sea ............................................... ..... 1:3
Narcotics .................................................. .. .. 13
Activities of Terrorist or Extremist Groups ........ .......... ..... 13
*Theire were five substantive objectives submitted by the DCI with his letter to the
President of June 18, 1974. They were not numbered; but the order in which they appear here,
and hence the ordering of these groups of Key Intelligence Questions, follows the sequence
of that June 18 submission.
i
SECRET
Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
 Approved For Release 2004/08&R.J f-RDP82M0031 I R000200060001-4
Key Intelligence Questions
For FY 1975
Introduction
1. These Key Intelligence Questions are designed to be responsive to and
to support the Substantive Objectives of the Intelligence Community for FY
1975 as noted by the United States Intelligence Board on June 13, 1974, prior
to the submission of those Objectives to the President.
2. The Key Intelligence Questions for Fiscal Year 1975 are issued as guidance
to the Intelligence Community for the collection and production of intelligence
on subjects of major importance to national-level intelligence consumers during
FY 1975. These Key Intelligence Questions obviously do not exhaust the uni-
verse of consumer needs; there are additional important categories of intelligence
collection and production which are not included in this priority national in-
telligence guidance:
(a) Lower priority national intelligence subjects: These are deliber-
ately omitted in order to emphasize the importance of the Key Intelligence
Questions. It is recognized that some attention must be devoted to lower
priority subjects, such as developments in Africa, although wherever pos-
sible less expensive and less difficult collection techniques should be em-
ployed. A level of attention must also be devoted to countries and issues
deemed likely to become important some years from now, even though
they may not pose immediate or pressing major problems during FY 1975.
(b) Departmental and tactical intelligence: This includes the intelli-
gence requirements of the operational commanders, as well as certain
warning and surveillance activities. An appropriate portion of the national
intelligence effort must be devoted to meeting these needs, and the Na-
tional Foreign Intelligence Budget Recommendations will take them into
account. Continuing efforts will be made to improve the interaction and
mutual support of national and tactical intelligence programs so that the
needs of each level may be served by the same activities to the maximum
extent possible. In framing these Key Intelligence Questions for FY 1975,
careful consideration was also paid to departmental objectives with na-
tional implications or overtones. The Critical Near-Term Defense Intelli-
gence Objectives of the Department of Defense were given special attention.
3. The Key Intelligence Questions are circulated for the following purposes:
(a) First, to insure that these subjects are given priority in the regular
collection and production activities of appropriate elements of the Intelli-
gence Community.
1
SECRET
Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
 Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
SECRET
(b) Second, to enable review of collection and production planning
by the member agencies of the Intelligence Community via a brief, succinct
report prepared on each KIQ under the aegis of the appropriate National
Intelligence Officer. In a few cases involving subjects of particular im-
portance, a supplementary, more detailed review will highlight specific
matters deemed appropriate for special collection or production attention.
(c) Third, to provide the basis for a recapitulation and evaluation,
after the close of the fiscal year, of the performance of the Intelligence
Community-and of individual agencies-on each of the Key Intelligence
Questions.
(d) Fourth, to permit the conclusions drawn from the recapitulation
and evaluation of the FY 1975 effort to be used as factors in Community
resource allocations, and in the preparation of the National Foreign In-
telligence Budget Recommendations which the Director of Central Intelh-
gc:nce will be sending to the President in November 1976.
4. The Key Intelligence Questions have been grouped, where possible,
under one of the five Substantive Objectives for the Intelligence Community
as submitted to the President by the Director of Central Intelligence. The
order in which the F Y 1975 questions are listed should not be regarded as
implying an internal priority: by definition, all the Key Intelligence Questions
are of major importance.
5. Additions or modifications to the Key Intelligence Questions may be
issued from time to time during FY 1975, if major changes in the international
situation or the foreign intelligence environment should so dictate.
S~~, 2 EETT
Approved For Release 2004/0~T3'I": NLRDP82M0031IR000200060001-4
 Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
SECRET
Substantive Objectives
and
Key Intelligence Questions
Substantive Objective
To provide reliable, timely and comprehensive assessments of Soviet policies
and intentions in the political, security and economic fields, to include the
dynamics of and factors affecting Soviet leadership and decision making. *
Key Intelligence Questions
Soviet Political Dynamics
1. What major trends and changes are likely in Soviet foreign policies relating
to the US?
Include the Soviet perception of the level, nature and geographic
focus of the competition with the US.
2. What internal trends and developments-including factions and policy
differences in decision-making circles-are likely to affect Soviet behavior,
both in the near and long terms?
3. What are the policies and activities of the Soviet Union with respect to
maintaining and expanding its influence in Eastern and Western Europe, the
Middle East and the Indian Ocean area?
4. What are the capabilities, intentions and expectations of the two sides
in the Sino-Soviet relationship-conflict, confrontation, reconciliation or con-
tinued uneasy stalemate?
Include reporting on any qualitative or quantitative changes in the
military balance between the USSR and China, particularly changes
that might indicate an increasing likelihood of hostilities.
5. What are Soviet economic policies toward the developed nations?
Particular attention should be given to the importation of technology.
Large-scale trade in food and materials is also highly important.
*The Substantive Objectives set forth in italic type are the five Substantive Objectives
for FY 1975 submitted by the DCI with his letter to the President of June 18, 1974.
3
SECRET
Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
 Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
SECRET
Substantive Objective
To provide reliable, timely and comprehensive information and assessments
of current and future Soviet military and political capabilities to exert influence
or power outside the USSR, especially with respect to the United States, its forces
and its allies, and other key areas such as the Middle East and China. In par-
ticular, monitor Soviet compliance with the Strategic Arms Limitation agree-
ments, the Limited Test Ban Treaty, the Mutual Balanced Force Reduction and
similar negotiations.
Key Intelligence Questions
Soviet Strategic Objectives
6. What are Soviet objectives, policies, deployment plans and perceptions
relating to strategic weapons and the strategic balance?
Soviet ICBM Systems
7. What are the accuracies of the Soviet SS-X-16, 17, 18 and 19 ICBM
systems?
8. What progress are the Soviets making, and what are their objectives, in
increasing the counterforce capability and survivability of their ICBM forces?
9. Are the Soviets developing land-mobile ICMBs; and if so, what progress
is being made?
Soviet. Nuclear Weapons
10. What doctrine and plans do the Soviets have for the deployment, com-
mand and control, and use of nuclear forces, including Soviet reactions to US
policy on selective uses of nuclear weapons?
1.1, What are Soviet objectives in nuclear weapons technology, and what
progress are the Soviets making in this area?
Soviet Long Range and Naval Aviation
12, What is the intended size, role and armament of the Backfire force?
13. What progress have the Soviets made in development of improved
tankers, a follow-on heavy bomber and air-launched stand-off weapons?
Soviet Naval Systems
14. What programs do the Soviets have to increase SLBM capabilities
against the United States by deployment of DELTA/SS-N-8 submarines, devel-
opment and deployment of follow-on SSBN systems, and/or changes in SSBN
operational practices and patrol areas, and command and control capabilities?
4
Approved For Release 2004/08rFF 73'IC GT RDP82M0031 1 R000200060001-4
 Approved For Release 2004/084 1 RDP82M0031IR000200060001-4
15. What progress are the Soviets making in expanding their international
political influence through the use of their distant fleet operations and sea-power
presence?
16. What progress have the Soviets made in development of follow-on
anti-ship missile systems?
Include the characteristics of the guidance systems.
17. What progress are the Soviets making toward acquisition of an effective
capability for open ocean submarine detection and localization?
Pay particular attention to progress in non-acoustic sensors.
18. What is the status of Soviet RDT&E, and what progress is being made
toward deployment of, and reporting improvements in, a satellite-borne ocean
surveillance system?
Soviet Strategic Air and Missile Defenses
19. What progress are the Soviets making in ABM development, and what
are their plans for further deployment?
20. What is the status of Soviet development of a look down/shoot down
capability for interceptor aircraft and improved air defense warning and control
systems?
21. What progress are the Soviets making toward strategic defense applica-
tions of lasers and beam weapons?
Soviet Weapons Acquisition Process
22. What are the costs of Soviet and Warsaw Pact weapons systems and
defense programs, and how do these costs affect Soviet defense decision making?
Include information on how the Soviet weapons research and develop-
ment and acquisition processes work.
Arms Agreement Negotiations
23. What are Soviet and Warsaw Pact objectives and positions in arms
limitations negotiations?
24. What are Soviet and Warsaw Pact intentions and actions with respect
to adherence to arms limitations agreements with the United States?
Europe: Warsaw Pact-NATO-MBFR
This information must be in sufficient detail to support the MBFR
25X6G negotiations. It must include identification and location of all Warsaw
5
Approved For Release 2004/4W.`.'i- RDP82M00311 R000200060001-4
 Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
SECRET
Pact military units and installations in the NGA; aggregate manpower
25X6G
26. What are the strengths and weaknesses of Warsaw Pact forces for
theater war?
The information must include the combat effectiveness of ground forces,
frontal aviation and-in Eastern Europe-national air defense forces
as well as Pact perceptions of NATO strengths and weaknesses.
27. What are Warsaw Pact views, plans and doctrine for conducting war
in Central Europe, including readiness, mobilization commitment and reinforce-
ment of Pact forces?
28. What are Warsaw Pact capabilities to fight a sustained non-nuclear
war in Europe, including critical stockpiles and the operation of the rear services?
25X6D
Eastern Europe
30. What are the prospects for Yugoslavia following the departure of Tito?
Consider especially the potential political role of the Yugoslav armed
forces, and Soviet efforts to increase Russian influence.
6
Approved For Release 2004/08tic ATRDP82M00311 R000200060001-4
 Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
SECRET
Substantive Objective
Provide reliable, timely and comprehensive information and assessments
of Chinese internal and external policies and capabilities with respect to the
United States, its allies, the USSR, Southeast Asia and the Third World.
Key Intelligence Questions
China: Internal Politics and Foreign Policy
31. What major trends and changes are likely in Chinese foreign policies
relating to the US and the USSR?
32. While Mao and/or Chou remain alive, how are the internal stresses
and relationships within the upper echelons of the Party likely to affect China's
main lines of foreign, economic and military policy? Should Mao and/or Chou
die, how are these policies likely to be affected by the succession process?
33. What are Peking's attitudes and objectives regarding the US' and
USSR's role in Asia, and Peking's intentions toward attaining a role as leader of
the Third World?
Include what progress Peking is making and how these Third World
activities affect its support of revolutionary movements in the less de-
veloped countries.
Chinese Military Capabilities
34. What is the present status of China's nuclear capabilities?
Include the types and locations of delivery vehicles, the numbers and
types of weapons in stockpile and weapons technology.
35. What progress are the Chinese making toward acquiring missile capa-
bilities against the US and against the USSR west of the Urals?
7RF
Approved For Release 2004/089C~ TRDP82M0031 1 R000200060001-4
 Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
SECRET
Substantive Objective
Provide reliable, timely and comprehensive information and assessments
on political and security situations or crises significantly affecting US interests
or requiring US action (e.g., Arab-Israeli relations, South and Southeast Asia,
the European Community, Latin America.)
Key Intelligence Questions
36. What are Israeli and Arab (especially Egyptian, Syrian, Jordanian,
Saudi and Palestinian) views on and strategies toward the major issues of a
peace settlement?
25X1
38. What are the threats to the political stability of major Middle East:
countries, and the points of conflict and cooperation between countries such
as Saudi Arabia and Iran?
Include major developments in the Middle East which could have a
significant effect on the success of US programs for economic cooper-
ation.
39. 'What indications are there of internal and regional instability in South
Asia, especially concerning India?
40. What are Communist intentions and capabilities in Indochina and
Thailand?
Are the USSR and/or China willing to support major hostilities, par-
ticularly on the part: of the North Vietnamese?
What are Soviet and Chinese interests in the area?
41. Will non-Communist elements in Indochina and Thailand be able
to maintain internal stability and will they continue to cooperate with the US?
25X1
8
Approved For Release 2004/0&] .MX-RDP82M0031 1 R000200060001-4
 Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
SECRET
43. What developments within North and South Korea are likely to ad-
versely affect the political, economic or military balance on the peninsula?
Include how these developments might significantly increase the possi-
bility of hostile action by Pyongyang or, short of that, substantially
increase pressure for greater US involvement in or support of South
Korea.
25X1
Western Europe
45. How do the new leaders in Western Europe weigh the compatibilities
and contradictions between "Atlanticism" and "Europeanism"?
Include the effects of domestic considerations (including political op-
position, especially in cases where Communist parties are large or in-
fluential) and what these attitudes imply for Europe's external relations,
participation in NATO and European defense cooperation. Also include
the role and influence of inter-governmental (e.g., the EC, NATO,
Eurogroup, WEU) and non-governmental (e.g., labor unions and fed-
erations, management groups, etc.) organizations and leaders.
46. What are West European policies, strengths and vulnerabilities in their
relations with the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe in trade, political and
security terms?
Include the impact of US policies toward the East on West European
policies, and how various East-West negotiations (CSCE, MBFR) fit
into West European concepts of the overall fabric of detente.
47. flow do national and international economic problems-such as in-
flation, employment and trade balance questions-and related social pressures
impinge on European domestic politics and on the foreign and defense policies
and options of the nrincinal European states?
25X1
48. What are the major trends in politics and policies in Portugal and its
African territories under the new regime, and in Spain, as the transition from
Franco comes closer?
49. What are the implications of developments in Cyprus, Greece and
Turkey for US and NATO political and security interests?
9
SECRET
Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
 25X6G
Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
 Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
SECRET
Foreign ]Demand for US Agricultural. Products
62. What is the likely demand (especially by the USSR, China, India,
Japan) for imports of wheat, soybeans, rice, corn and cotton, and what are the
capabilities of countries other than the US (especially Canada, Argentina, Aus-
tralia, Brazil and Thailand) for supplying these commodities to the world market?
25X1
~FF~~122F
Approved For Release 2004/0Si3'I`:"Cl'K-RDP82M0031 1 R000200060001-4
 Approved For Release 2004/0L-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
Additional Key Intelligence Questions
Nuclear Proliferation
25X1
25X6G
25X6D
Narcotics
66. Who are the major producers and traffickers in illicit narcotics, and
what are their methods of operation?
Include the location of their production areas, laboratories and storage
facilities, and how and by what routes and timing they move illicit nar-
cotics to the United States.
Activities of Terrorist or Extremist Groups
68. What are the composition, intentions and capabilities of foreign ter-
rorist or extremist groups?
Include their sources of funds and weapons, the possibility of seizure
or production and use of weapons of mass destruction (BW-CW as
well as nuclear), the issues with which they identify, their relations
with other like-minded groups, the extent of government support or op-
position, their impact on government policy and stability in their host
countries, and any evidence that Moscow or Peking is influencing or
rendering direct support to the terrorist groups.
69. What indications are there that the oil exporting countries plan to use
their increasing wealth for political or subversive purposes?
Include such activities as support for terrorist groups, loans to third
parties for the purchase of arms and loans and subsidies to political
groupings or national governments.
13
SECRET
Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
 Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4
Secret
Secret
Approved For Release 2004/08/31 : CIA-RDP82M00311R000200060001-4