PRELIMINARY SURVEY FOR PLAN ON CHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80R01731R003300190047-9
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2005
• Sequence Number: 47
• Publication Date: January 14, 1953
• Content Type: MEMO

SECURITY INFORMATION
WASHINGTON 25, D. C. PSYCHOLOGICAL STRATEGY BOARD
JAN 14 1953
MEMORANDUM
TO: General Walter B. Smith, Director of
Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Preliminary Survey for Plan on China
The attached preliminary survey on Communist China
is submitted for information for the Board at its 17th
meeting on January 15, 1953. This survey will be
developed at a later date by the PSB staff into a com-
pleted staff study and will be at that time submitted
to the Board for consideration and approval.
Alan G. Kirk
Director
Enclosure:
Preliminary Survey for Plan on China,
Copy No. 42.
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PSYCHOLOGICAL STRATEGY BOARD
Washington 259 D,C.
COPY NO.42
January 14, 11953
PRELIMINARY SU -rT",Y FOR PLAN ON CHINA
1. The psychological problem involved in Communist domination of
the mainland, and its importance in Soviet expansion throughout Asia is
recognized as most important by all member agencies Facing this
situation, however, is the question of policy regarding Comma.:d st China
as a basis for comprehensive planning, Also, there is some question
whether present guidance in member agencies conducting operations in
regard to China and its periphery are adequate.
2, On the other hands, there is a great volume of information
available in the various member agencies on Communist China and the
potentialities for obtaining worthwhile additional information or
resources is similarly encouraging. In this co.nnection,, a preliminary
survey of existing information on Communist China divulges several
topics which c-)uld be the basis for the exploitation of certain
potential weaknesses of the Peiping regime in the field of internal
control,, "inn-Soviet relations, and Communist Chi.nats relations
with other Asian countries,
a0 Chinese Communist propaganda media and intelligence
information have referred with increasing frequency during
the past three months to a new program of economic and ia us-
trial reconstruction. This pattern would suggest that Co mnunist
China is now contemplating a move into a new period requiring
substantial amounts of capital goods especially machinery:
trained technical personnel, and foreign exchange. Any signifi-
cant increase in the economic potential of Communist China,
whether for civilian or military production, obviously is
dependent upon substantial. Soviet supIxor , ,, The S -1vi;et Union,
eve if able: is unlikely, however, to provide Communist China
with the means whereby China could become mi.lit;:Mrily or
economically independent of the USSR The trend of recent
events and the pronouncements of Chinese Communist leaders also
clearly indicate that military production will have first
priority in the projected Chinese Communist industrial recon-
struction program Since the Chinese Cn,nmunists are forced to
attempt this industrial expansion in the face of an unsettled
Korean war, expanding military requirements,, and with the
general international climate both uneasy and Increasingly
hostile to them: it would appear that a large segment of the
Chinese population would at this time be vulnerable to certain
psychological programs designed to create disaffection0
b, The Peiping regime is gradually increasing coll.ectiviza>
tion methods in agricultural production in Manchuria and North
China. Obviously, collectivization methods ?uhis early in the
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history of the Peiping regime will negate much of the political
capital which the Peiping regime heretofore has gained from its
program of Agrarian Reform, Collectivization methods are
designed to destroy the traditional social-economic structure
of the rural China, but it is also possible that this program
can result in a measure of dissidence among Chinals peasantry?
which comprises over SO% of the population of China,
e The history of Si.nn.-Russian relations is full of con-
flicts over Sinkiang, Mongolia, and Manchuria,, During the
last century there has been almost continuous 2ussian encroach-
ment on Chi.,iese Interests in those areas, The Sinuf?Soviet Treaty
of 1950 temporarily ended such border disputes. It is difficult
to believe, however; that such lung standing disputes have been
permanently settled, We thick that they ava likely to recurs in
one form or another, and that they must be considered in assessing
the probable course of Sino-Soviet relations in the future,,
d At present, the interests of China are for the most
part confined to the Far East; those of the Kremlin are world-
wide. Hence, the Chinese Communists may view the accomplishment
of Far Eastern objectives with more urgency and.inpatienoe than do
the Soviets, who might postpone action in the Far East because of
situations elsewhere in the world The Chinese Communists might
make demands upon the USSR, or even take action, incompatible
with the long-range Soviet global interests, This is applicable
to the Korean conflict which is a potential source of friction
to the two regimes, In addition,, Peiping may attempt to extend
its aun sphere of influence in Southeast Asia. There is evidence
that the Chinese Communist role in "liberations" moveme is has been
increasing but has not been permanently deflnedQ
A The foregoing items can be supported by existing data in the
intelligence communityQ
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