JPRS ID: 10681 USSR REPORT HUMAN RESOURCES

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• Content Type: REPORTS

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JPRS L/ 10681
23 July 1982
USSR Re ort
_ p
HUMAN RESOURCES
CFOUO 7/82~
~
FB~$ FOREIGN BRO~?DCAST INFORMATION SERVICE
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: JPRS I,/10681
23 July 1982
USSR REPORT
HUMAN RESOURCES
(FOUO 7/82)
CONTENTS
DEMOGRAPHY
Country's Demographic goliciea Examined
(Various sources, varioue dates) 1
Demographic Policy Deacribed, by G. I. Litvinova,
B. Ts. Urlanie
Migration, Reproduction Analyzed, by L. Rybakovskiy,
N. Taraoova
+ .
~
- a - [III - USSR - 38c FOUO]
FnR l1FFT~'fAi. i1CF nNi.Y
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' DIIrIOGRAPHY
COUNTRY'S DEM03RAPHIC POLICIES EXAMINED
Demographic Policy Described
_ Moscow SOVETSKOYE GOSUDARSTVO I PRAVO in Russian No 3, Mar 82 pp 38-46
~rticle by G.I..Litvinova, candidate of juridical sciences, senior research
officer at the Institute of the State and Law of the USSR Academy of Sciences,
~ ~and B. Ts. Urlanis: The Demographic Policy of the Soviet Union7
_ /Text7 Population problems have taken their place among the global problems of
the present day. Jurisprudence faces great tasks in this regard. It is becoming
more and more obvious that there is a need for legal regu3ation of social processes,
including demographic ones; only yesterday it seemed that many of these processes
could develop spontaneously. The management of demo~raphic processes consists
of the conscious, goal-oriented and systematic influencing of population on the
basis of awareness and use of the objective patterns and progressive tendencies
ch3racteristic of socialism in ~he interests of ensu~ing optimal movement of
the populaCion and the establishment of a population reproduction regime which
would fully answer the problems of the state and society under developed socialism.
The multi-faceted nature of demographic processes presumes a comprehensive
analysis of these processes by economists, legal and medical specialists,
sociologists and representatives of other sciences; the discovery of various
factors w hich influence population movement and opportunities for managing
these factors. The 25,`h CPSU congress directed representatives of the natural
and social sciences to undertake comprehensive study of demogra hic problems
for the purpose of developing an effective demographic policy In the
CC CPSU report to the 26th party congress LaI. Brezhenv said: ~In accordance
with the directives of the 25th party congress,the Central Committee has devoted
serious attention to the development and i.mplementation of an effective demographic
policy and to the population problems, which have become exacerbated in recent
times " p 547.
T'he demographic policy of the Soviet state is aimed at ensuring a natural inerease
in populatian, at strengthening health, at increasi:ng the life span and labor
activity of every person and at rationalizing territorial mobility. It is
also oriented toward the development of qualitative population features, inasmuch
as the progress of society depends not so r.:uch on the numbers as on the quality
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of the population. In the acYnevement of demographic policy goals a large role
is assigned to the family, a most important function of which is the ~
reproduction of the population. It is within the family that the reproductive
aims of citizens are realized and the original socialization of the child takes
place: his emotional world, his moral and ethical positions are formed here. The
USSR Constitution declares that the family is under the protection of the state.
The state manifests concern for the family through the establishment and
development of a broad network of children's institutions, the organization
and improvement of houselwld and public catering services, the payment of
benefits when a child is born, the payment of allowances and benefits to
large families, as well as other types of allowances and assistance for the family
(Article 53).
At the 26th CPSU Congress L.i. Brezhnev emphasized that the main~way to resol~e
population problems wa.s to manifest "increased concern for the family, for
newly-married couples and especially for wosrien p 547. Without the assistance
of the state it would be diff icult for a woman to combine the functions of
motherhood with production and societa.l activities. At the congress it was
poinred out that although a series of ineasures were taken in the IOth Five-
Year Plan to improve the~ labor conditi~ns of working women, as well as conditions
for family recreation, domestic and cultural services, no appreciable change had
yet taken place r, p 551. There is still a large proportion of women
who work night shifts and who are engaged in work which requires manual labor
and few skills. The predominant practice of using female labor for low-skilled
w~rk is the reason why the average wage of women is two-thirds that
ef inen, although the total labor load at home and at work is 15-20 percent
greater than the lo~.d of inen ~
While consolidating the success achieved in the improvement of women's position,
and confirming the principle of equality between women and men, the 1977 USSR .
� Constitution, in comparison with the 1936 constitution, contains a series of
supplemental measures, including program measures ai.med at ensuring the actual
equality of women and men, and at improving the conditions for combining mother-
hood and production activities by women, and specifically at reducing gradually
the working ti.me of women who have young children (Article 35).
Broad and effective measures to improve the working and living conditions of
working women, and especially of working mothers, are set out in the Basic
Trends in the Economic and Social Development of the USSR in the years 1981-1985
and for the Period up to 1990. It calls for the introduction of partially
paid leave to care for a child up to one year, the extension of child allowances,
especially for the birth of second and third children, repeal of the tax on
childlessness for young couples in the~first year of marriage, a reduced working
day for mot.iers of young children, expansion of the network and i.mprovement in
the operations of preschool facilities a~d schools with after school day care
groups, and improvement in the entire sphere of household services. Plans
call for improved housing benefits for young couples and for families which
have children p 55, 17870
The city of Naberezhnyye Che1nS conductied an experiment in which young families
with children were given top priority in obtaining living accommodation with
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modern conveniences. The results showed that this measure is capable of
significantly influencing the birthrate. In tni~ regard, it is advisable to
establish legislatively the right of young families in a first marriage who
have twoc~r three children to receive maximum housing benefits. The priority .
introduction of such benefits in the republics and regions with a lcw birthrate
will contribute not only to an i.ncrease in the birthrate, but also to the
strengthening of marriages because the areas which have low birthr8tes are also
characterized by a high percentage of marriage breakdowns.
The increase in divorces is a kind of shadow of progress with regard to the
, position of women: the increased economic independence of women has raised
the level of their demands on the marital union and has become one of the
reasons for the reduction in marriage stability. In resolving these complex
issues consideration shoi~ld be taken of changing attitu~es toward marriage, the
; goals of marriage, its m~~,terial foundation, the nature of the emotional and
sexual relations of the spouses and their reproductive aims. It is clear that
improvements in the marriage and family legislation should be carried out not
so much along the lines of inereased legal prohibitions concerning divorce
and abortion (legal prohibitions which regulate the reproductive behavior of
citizens should be applied with particular caution), as along the lines of
granting increased allowances and benefits to families with children. It is
this kind of solution of the problem that lawyers have been directed toward by
~ materials of the 26th CPSU Congress, which point directly to the r_eed for
increased benefits and allowances, "especially with regard to the birth of a
second or third child...." It is further recommended that the "features of the
_ situation in the various republics and regions be taken into careful account"
/3, p 557. The differences i.n the level of the bixthrate and natural increase
in the various republics and regions are extremely significant. The Soviet people
are growing in numbers mainly as d result of the high natural increase of
certain national groups at a time when there is a low level of natural increase
or even a reduction in the numbers among other groups.
It is appropriate to recall that before the revolution depopulation was common
among many of the peoples in the Asian part of the country: the number of
Kazakhs, Khirgiz, Turkmenians, Buryats, etc. was falling. The Soviet federal
state, having concentrated all material resources in its own hands, redistributed
them to the backward regions, succeeded within historically unprecedented periods
of time in raising sharply r.he level of material well-being, health care and
culture of the peoples who were i.n danger of dying out. The rates of socio-
economic development which were established for these peoples were acceleaated
in comparison with the all-union indicators. In this way the problem of real
- as well as legal equality among national groups was solved. As a result there
was success in preventing the physical exti.netion of these peoples and in
ensuring a high rate of natural increase for them. L.I. Brezhnev noted
correctly that the growth of population in the Central Asian republics "reflects
primarily the dramatic improvement in the economic level of our republics,
including enormous growth in the well-being of the population in the former
. outlying districts of tsarist Russia...." ~ Although the demographic situ-
ation in the USSR has now changed sharply, the existing system for the distribu-
tion of budget resources, the policy of purchase prices, which influences the
level of material supply for the rural population and other factors remain as
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before, beneficial for the outlying republics and regions, although at present
the central regions, and especially the Non Black Earth Zone, are in more need
of such benefits.
The legislation, which was adopted in 1944 and is still in effect today, is aimed
at providing the maximum encouragement for large families; this is no longer
in line with the requirements of 'the demographic situation which has become
established in the country. At a time when there is nearly full employment
of women in public production and there are growing demands for the comprehensive
development and education of children, families with many children cannot be
either the standard or the norm encouraged by the state.
Ttie policy proposed by the 26th CPSU Congress, which provides maximum encouragement
for families to have two or three children, will help to bring closer together
the birthrates of the various republics and national groups, to strengthen
the comm~~.nity of their demographic characteristics, and to strengthen the unity
of the Soviet people. The realization of this policy requires a re-examination
not only of the magnitude but also of the principles of providing incentives to
increase the birthrate, as stipulated by the 8 July.194~ ukase of the Presidium
of the USSR Supreme Soviet. The ukase provided for a monthly allowance which
is paid to a family, but only beginning with the fourth child; further, the
maxir~~um allowance is paid for the llth and subsequent children This same
policy of encouraging large families is the basis for the procedure stipulated
by the ukase, for awarding th~ orders of "Maternal C~7.ory" and "Mother Heroine"
to women who have given birth and raised 7-10 or mor2 children
The mother with many children is deserving of honor i.nasmuch as the raising of
children requires enormous labor and self sacrifice from her. However, from
the viewpoint of stimulating the birthrate, the existing norms for encouraging
women to have more than one child are not sufficiently effective. One can
hardly think thaC women have more children because they are hoping to receive
a medal, an order or the corresponding title. At the same time it must be noted
that having many children, even under the most favorable circum.stances, consti-
tutes a large burden for a woman. A large number of children reduces her
opportunities for cultural and occupational growth, and at times it deprives
her completely of her leisure and affects her health. Raising children in a
large family is more difficult because the parents are not i.n a position to
devote sufficient attention to each one. For this reason the inter~ests of
both the mother and the offspring d:.ctate an orientation towards an optimal number
of children, which will correspond to the rational need for children on the part
of both the family and society. Under present conditions three children
represents this optimum size family. However, at the present ti.me, given the
still existing housing difficulties for the urban population, one can talk
about the ~iniversal acceptance of a two-child family as a realistic goal
because it is well known that a significant number of married couples limit
themselves to one child. This can be seen in the fact that the number of
second children in 1977 was significantly less than the number of first-born
children. Consequently, when the number of second children approaches the
number of first children, it signifies a substantial increase in the birthrate.
On the other hand, the legal norms must contribute to a reduction in the number
of one-child families. It is generally Imown that it is difficult to create
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r.hc~ best possible conditions for raising a child in one-child families. The
child in these families frequently turns out to be a"luminary" around which
all the "planets" revol v~ This kind of child-centeredness cannot fail to
produce hypertrophy of egotistical tendencies i.n a child and the desire to
satisfy his primary needs frequently at the expense of his parents' intereats~
Childless families prove to be in a special position. Voluntary childlessness
extends to only I or 2 percent of married couples, while actual childlessness
is greater and approaches 10 percent. These are married couples who suffer
from infertility because of either the husband or the wife. Infertility fre-
quently causes family conflicts and in a number of cases it is the cause of
divorce. It is no accident that the overwhelming majority of divorces occur
among childless or one-child families. The legal regulation of operations
for the artificial insemination of women could become a serious measure to
reduce the number of childless families, and consequently, to inerease the
stability of marriage.
Among the social measures, set out by the 26th CPSU Congress, there is great
demographdc significance to the decisions concerning the expansion of the network
of preschool institutions for children and the improvement of their operations
/3, p 55, 1787. In this connection it would be wise to standardize the legal
position of kindergarten and day care centers, which come under the jurisdic.tion
of various organs. As is ~aell known, departmental day cares and kindergartens
are in a better position in comparison with day care centers and kindergardens
which come under the budget of the local soviets (fewer children per care giver,
larger norms for food expenditures, higher wages for personnel, etc.). Matters
with regard to kindergartens and day care centers which come under kolkhoz
budgets are even more complex. For example, in the Turkmen SSR, where kolkhoz's
are economically strong, every kolkhoz has one or two kindergartens and day
care centers (the number of these institutions is I.~-fold greater tha.n the
number of kolkhoz's in the republic), while by no means every kolkhoz in the
Non Black Earth Zone has i~s own kindergarten or day care center. The sovkhoz
kindergartens which exist in rural regions do not always accept the children of
kolkhoz.members livi.ng nearby. Now, at a time when school programs are based on
the assumption that children have received preschool education, the children of
kolkhoz members who have not not attended kindergarten start school at a dis-
advantage. Kolkhoz kindergartens experience not only financial difficulties, but
also problems obtaining equipment and staff. The care giver is often a woman
who has been transferred here because her health no longer permits her to perfrom
heavy labor. All kindergartens ancl day care centers should be put under the
jurisdiction of the local soviets; their material base and organ izational structure
should be improved.
Particular mention should be made of the legal position of unmarried mothers.l
A significant amount of attention was devoted to the improvement of their
Position in the materials of the 26th CPSU Congress. The unmarried mother is
surrounded by the attention and concern of the state. In accordance with
the January 1981 decree of the CC CPSU and the USSR Council of Ministers
"Concerning Measures to Strengthen State Assistance to Families Having Children"
the monthly allowan~e for the maintenance of a child of such a mother
was increased from 5 to 20 rubles; moreover, it will be paid until the child reaches
1. It would seem that the existin term "s:ingle moi.her" is illogical: how can a si.n-
wom ho has a family even i~ incomplete, be called single or solitary? It
wou~ ~ better to tal~C about an unmarried mother, in contrast with a divorcee
or a wi~ow.
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16, or until I8 if he continues his studies. An allowance of t~is size com-
pensates to a definite degree for the expenses of raising a child; this is
especially important as the mother does not receive alimony, ~
The measures stipulated by the decisions of the 26th CPSU Congress and a decree
of the CC CPSU and the US3R Council of Ministers Concerning Measures to
Strengthen State Assistance to Families Having Children" are o.f great significance
for the formation of optimal families. These measures include: additional
ber.efits for working mothers such as partially paid leave to care for a child
under the age of one year; unpaid leave until the child reaches a y~ar and a
_ half, and in the future to two years; an increase in regular leave; the ri.ght
to work a shortened working day or week; the right to woTk at home;an increase
in the amount of paid leave to care for a sick child between the ages of 7 and
14 years, etc. The realization of these measures will contribute to the
optimalization of the birthrate.
It goes without saying that no family can be obliged to have any specific
number of children by any legal act. However, the legislator can specify
a system of benefits and allowances under which all or the ~verwhelming
majority of families will prefer to have the number of children which can be
considered optimal for the normal development of the state and society. In
working to improve the legislation which influences the reproductive behavior
of our citizens, the positive experience accumulated in the area of demographic
policy by the European socialist states should be used to oood advantage. In
recent decades this palicy has developed along the line of expanded benefits
and allowances for working mothers with two or three children. It ~aould seem
that the experience of granting housing benef its to newly-married cuuples .
and families with children is particularly significant given the conditions
in o~.r country. For example, in the GDR, young couples entering a f irst marriage
are granted an eight-year loan of 5,000 marks, as long as the newly-weds
are no older than 26. This interest-free loan has the following payment
conditions: when the first child is born, 1,000 marks is deducted from the debt,
when the second is born, another 1,500 marks is cleared, and when the third
child is born the remainin~ 2,500 marks are cleared. The young couples willingly
take the loan because nearly all of them wanC the first child. Having taken
5,000 marks, they only have to return 4,000. However, with the birth of a
child the family's f inancial position, as a rule, becomes more difficult, and
the remaini.ng 4,000 are frequently "paid off by the children," whose
births (the second and third) were not always planned before the loan was
obtained. During the first five years the law was in effect (it was introduced
in 1972), 398,000 credits worth a total of 2.2 billion marks were granted.
During this period of time married~couples returned 323 million marks in
payment of the loans
The numerical population of a state an3 its rate of increase depends not only
on the birthrate but also on the average life span. The 3oviet state was the
first in the world to create a Ministry of Health and to take full responsibility
for improving the health of its citizens, especially its children; this has
resulted in a two-fold increase in life span and a sharp (10-fold) reduction
in infant mortality. However, in recent years there has been a stabilization,
and in certain age groups even an increase in mortality. This is one aspect
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in the exacerbation of the population problems and is an aspect which was noted
in the materials of the 25th CPSU Congress~.
~ In the USSR health care is considered to be a top-priority issue..~idence of this
can be found in the ~pecial article of the USSR Constitution which stipulates the
right of citizens to health protection. This right is ensured by the system
of free medical care, the implementation of widespread preventive measures,
environmental improvement schemes and "particular concern for the health of the
coming generation, inclu3ing the prohibition of child labor, not connected
with i.nstruction or labor education..." (Article 42). Much attention in the
has been devoted to the spiritual and physical development of young people
in the Constitution (article 25). The protection of citizens' health is also
guaranteed by other constitutional norms, for example, the right to live in
a healthy environment (Article 18), the right to recreaticn (Article 41),
the right to material provision in old age, in the case of illness, or work
disability (partial or complete) and also in case of loss of the breadwinner
(Article 43).
The 26th CPSU Congress, having declared the right to life to be the most ir.iportant
human right, stipulated a system of ineasures to strengthen the health of citizens
to improve the level and quality of inedical care, to expand the n~twork of
health care institutions, to improve their structure and rational distribution
/3, pp 182-1837. The measures taken by the congress to improve social and work
conditions for the population will contribute to the increase in the life span.
The congress decreed t~at there should be increased mechanization of labor-intensive
processes, and a reduction in the use of manual labor. It is thought that
these measures will be carried out first in the production spheres which use
primarily female labor; it would be good to establish this in the legal norms whicYi
regulate socio-economic planning.
Among the measures aimed at the protection of health, an important role is
assigned to measures to combat the abuse of alcohol, which has a pernicious effect
not only on the health of the people involved, but also on their off spring.
According to the data of sociological studies, 65 percent of the fathers of
mentally retarded children suffered from chronic alcoholism. There is an even
greater probability that a defective child will be born if the mother is drinking
In this regard there are grounds for proposing limitations on marriages
by chroni~, neglected alcoholics, as well as by feeble-minded people and drug
addicts /97. The i.ssue of voluntary sterilization of such persons as a condition
of marriage shouid be discussed.
Mi~;ration policy is an important element of demographic policy and one of its
important constituents. The size of the population, and especially the
m~~nitude of the available labor resources withi.n a given republic or region
is cletermined not only by the level of natural population increase but also by
t:he trends and intensity of migratory processes. A significant amount of
today's territorial mobility of the population is not i.n the interests of the
national economy. Given the worsening of the problem of labor resources in
most of the country, a well grounded migration policy is acquiring particular
si~;nificance. Althougn the interests of e~onomic and social development require
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an influx of labor resources into labor-short regions, the migrator3 streams
~ are frequently directed to the regions of labor excess. At the 26th CPSU Congress.
L.I. Brezhnev noted that up to now people have frequently preferred to move
from the north to the south and from the east to the west, although the rational
distribution of productive forces requires movement in the opposite directivns ~
p 547. The republics of Central Asia, which are char acterized by the
highest rate of natural population increase and a surplus of labor resources,
have a positive balance of migration, i.e., more people come to this ar~.a than
leave it. '
TI?e managemen t of migratory processes presupposes an~.nalysis and consideration
of factors which influence the intensity and directional trends of the migration.
Many of these factors were pointed out ?n the materials of the 26th party congress.
They include first of all the developmental level of the .infrastructure and
the degree of material provision. For example, a person most often leaves
Siberia because it is more difficult to obtain housing there or to find a place
for his child in a kindergarten and there are are few cult~iral centers. Taking
this into account, the congress aimed at an accelerated rate of socio-domestic
and cultural construction in regions of priority economic development, which,
as a rule, are regions which are short of labor (Siberia, the BAM zone,.the
Non Black Earth Zone) /3, pp 54-557.
The success of the migration policy is closely linked to the budget and tax
policy and the policy of purchase prices. Serious measures which are aimed at
improving conditions in the Non Black Earth area will yield great results if
they are supplemented l~y amendments to the tax and budget policy, as well as to
the policy of purchase prices, which over a period of decades have developed
to the disadvantage of certain regions. For example, in the fifties, the
gross crop yield for 1 work-day accordi.ng to the fi.xed prices for state
purchases in the Non Black Earth Zone of the RSFSR was judged to be one-tenth
of what it was in the Uzbek SSR and one-fifteenth the f igure in the Georgian
SSR ~O~j. In 1970 there were 11.5 hectares of arable land for every kolkhoz
member in the RSFSR; in the Uzbek SSR the corresponding figure was 1.6 hectares
but the income here for one kolkhoz member was 33 percent higher than in
the RSFSR ~17� A comparison with the Non B1ack Earth Zone of the RSFSR
shows that these differences were even greater. The comparatively low purchase
prices for basic agricultural products which come from the Non Black Earth
Zone (potatoes, flax, etc.), ~have a negative effect on the profitability of
- kolkhoz~s and the incomes of kolkhoz members, and they are not completely in
line with the principle of payment accor.ding to labor. Suffice it to say
that the purchase prices for potatoes frequently do not justify the expenditures
for their production. For example, the cost to produce a quintal of potatoes
on a farm of the Non Black Earth Zone today amounts to 9 rubles 61 kopecks,
and it is sold to the state for 6 rubles 6 kopecks per qui.ntal (taking into
account a reduction for starch, irregularity, etc.) ~27. The negative total
profitatnlit y of agriculture in the RSFSR is explained pr imar ily by the policy
of purchase prices., through which we implement the basic redistribution of
national wealth created by the agriculture of this republic and this region. ,
Over the decades the tax policy has also been constructed in such a way that
the greatest tax benefits are granted to the outlying regions of the country.
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As f~>r t~~,~~er. p~ticy, ~iurin~ the years that the Soviet state has existed, the
ItS('SR has not only never enjoyed a subsidy from the union-wide budget, as
certain other republics, but it has also obtained for the republic's budget
one of the lowest percentages of allotments from the turnover tax, the basic
item of budget income. In accordance with the general rule, the RSFSR receives
only half of the mon?y derived from the income tax on its populatioi., at a time
' when certain other republics receive all of this income for ~heir republics'
= budgets. The inf luence of these factors, as well as the lower (lower than the
union average) rate of socio-economic develomment of rural regions of the
country's center, are the reason for the excess emigration from here, especially
~ the emigration of young people, which has led to an aging of the rural population
and a reduction in its numbers.
At the 26th CPSU Congress mention was made of the substantial differences in the
cultural and everyday living conditions in the various regions of the country;
it was emphasized that it is necessary "to even out the social differences, in
- a so-to-speak territorial regard" /3, p 547. In this regard it would be wise to in-
troduce a differentiated ground rent which takes into account fully the soil,
climatic and genegraphical canditions; this could reduce substantially the southern
�republics' demand for higher allotments from the union�-wide state taxes and
_ incomes, as well as take into account the demographers' proposal to develop
- territorial indices for the sta.ndard of living and indices for the popL'ation's
living conditions. These indices, which should be calculated regularly for
. various areas, should be taken into account when legal acts concerning benefits
for people working in certain regions are adopted. In this way there can be
scientifically substantiated criteria for the establishment of certain wage
supplements ~ahich should be made with consideration. for the concrete conditions
of life in a specific locality rather than over large territories and in
ar unscientific manner. These indices should include not only the cost of living
in the given regions, btit also the need to provide,an adequate level of food
and expenditures for clotYiiiig, footwear, and heating which arise from the climatic
conditions of the locality. Tn addition, special indices of comfort and the
satisfaction of the population`s cultural requirements should be d~eveloped.
Migration policy, especially migration between republics, is related to national
policy. The strictest possible observation of the principle of eq+sal rights
among nationalities, and provisions for actual equality and equal opportunities
for social growth (job advancement, access Lo education, skill i.mprovement, etc.)
for representatives of every national group, regardless of which Soviet republic
the citizen resides in., coiitr~butes to the op~imalization of migratory processes.
The all-union population censuses of 1970 and 1979 showed an increase in the
proportion of people of indigenous natior~ality in ttie majority of union and
autonomous republics, as well as a reduction in the proportion of people
residing outside their own republic. One of the reasons for this is that
the advantages for social advancement by representatives of the indigenous
nationalities, in the republics ha~~e been retained. While this was justified in
the first years after the Great October Revolution, it requires change under
present conditions.2
�Sociological studies have shown that when young people born of mixed marriages
choose their nationality, they prefer the indigenous one, linking it to oppor-
ttinities to obtiain benefits, enter a WZ or advance in a job, etc. ~37
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Havin~ emphasized the strengthening of unity among Soviet national groups, the
26th CPSU Congress at the same time pointed to the existence of unresolved problems
~ in the sphere of nationality relations, noting especially that citizens of non-
indigenous nationality living in the union republics have the right to the
necessary representation in the party and state organs of the republics, as wel].
as their own specific nee~ls in the area of. language, culture and daily life. The
CC CPSU report to the party congress says: "The central committees of the
communist parties in the union republics, as well as the kraykoms and obkoms,
must delve more deeply into such issues, and must suggest in good time ways
to resolve them" pp 56-577.
The management of migration is linked to the resolution of problems concerning
resettlement, in particular with the organic growth of major cities. Here
there are quite a few unresolved issues of an ecological, economic, legal,
social and medical nature, as well as others.
The successful implementation of a demographic policy, which is a part of the
state's socio-economic polic_,~, depends on the resolution of the complex of
socio-economic problems. An effective demographic policy presumes the achievement--
;aithin an historically short period of time and with minimal economic ex-
penses--of a goal while observing society's existing social norms, including
legal ones /147. The legal provision for implementing demographic policy requires:
determination of the role of the law in a system of other, nonlegal measures,
which influence the demographic behavior of citizens; preparation of a legal act
of the highest legal force, which would determine the foundations of the demogra-
phic legislation of the USSR and the union republics, the goals and tasks of
demographic policy, the ways and methods to achieve them; the .elimination
of gaps in the legal effect on any given demographic processes; adequate legal
reflection of the demands of optimal demographic development; the attribution--
as far as possible--of a demographic nature to nondemographic legal norms.
The establishing in law of the basic principles and trends of demographic policy
presume the inter-relationship of all of its elements, their scientific foundation
and balanc, as well as consideration for the hierarchy of goals. However, the
realization of these requirements tmder today's conditions is held up due to a
lack of clear criteria and i.ndicators of demographic development, especially
qualitative ones. The abundance of differi.ng, sometimes diametrically opposed
viewpoi.nts of economists, sociologists and psychologists on the fundamental .
issues of how to influence demographic processes complicates the development
and improvement of legal norms, and puts the law-maker in a difficult position
inasmuch as the adoption of legal acts, especially laws, excludes any such
rapid change in viewpoint as can sometimes be observed in science.
Because i is an effective regulator of societal relations, the law
along with other means of managing the demographic processes of society,
is capable of ensuring the most rational possible behavior of people, and
of creating conditinns for population reproduction which will guarantee the
well-being of society in a demographic regard. But in order to fulfill this func-
tion, the law must express with the necessary completen ess and in its character-
istic forms the requirements of Soviet demographic science with consideration
for the effect of objective patterns of demographic development, as well as of
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the social, economic and political needs of the state, the republic, the region
the specific national group, or the entire Soviet people and country as a whole.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Brezhnev, L.I., "Leninskim kursom. Rechi i stat'i" ~he Leninist Course,
Speeches and Article7, Moscow, 1978, Vol 6, p 431.
2. "Materialy XXV s"yezda KPSS" ~aterials of the 25th CP~U Congress7, Moscow, 1976
p 73. -
- 3. "'Materialy XXVI s"yezda KPSS" ~aterials of the 26th CPSU Congress7, Moscow, 1981.
4. Ryurikov, Yu.B. "Children and Society," VOPROSY FILOSOFII, No 4, 1977, p 119.
S. VIDOMOSTI VERKHOVNOGO SOVETA SSSR, No 37, 1944, p lo
6. PRAVDA, 31 March 1981.
7. Gizi, I., Shpaynger, V. "Stimulating the Birthrate in the GDR," SOTSIOLOGICHESRIYE
ISSLEDOVANIYA, no 4, 1980, p 75.
8. Lupandin, V.M. "Alcoholism and Posterity," SOTSIOLOGICHESKIYE ISSLEDOVANIYA,
no 1, 1980, p 100.
9. Korolev, Yu.A. "The Effectiveness of Marriage and Family Legislation,"
SOTSIOLOGICHESKIYE ISSLEDOVANIYA, No 1, I981, p 75.
10. Volkov, I.M. "The Kolkhoz Peasantry of the USSR in the First Postwar Years,"
VOPROSY ISTORII, no 6, 1970, pp 13-16,
11. "Narodnoye khozyastvo SSSR za 60 let" ~5ixty Years of the'USSR Economy7 ~
Moscow, 1977, pp 356-357. - -
12. Mozhayev, B. "Byt' khozyaninam:" LIT. GAZ.,l July 1981.
13. Khomich, L.V., "Concerning the Preservation of the Idea of Ethnic Processes,"
SOV. ETNOGR~IPHIYA, No 5, 1969, p 84.
14. Kvasha, A. Ya. "Demograficheskaya politika v SSSR" ~emographic Policy in
the USSR7, Moscow, 1981, p 176.
COPYkIGHT: Izdatel'stvo "Nauka", "Sovetskoye gosudarstvo i pravo", 1982
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Migration, Reproduction Analyzed
Moscow VESTNIK STATISTIKI in Russian No 1, Jan 82 pp 21-30
/~rticle by L. Rybakovskiy and N. Tarasovas "Evaluating the Influence of Mig~g-
tion on the Reproduction of the Populatiori~7
/Text7 The influence of migration processes ori population reproduction is the
~east studied aspect of the theory of migration. This applies in full measure
both to the contemporary level of sociological studies of the mechanism by
which migration influences the intensity of the birthrate and the mortality
rate of the permanent population and of the migrants, and to the development .
of inethodological problzms related ~o the work of evaluating the results of
migratory redistribution of the natural increase in the population among
territories and settled areas of the country. The latter is especially important
b ecause in the places to which people have moved the immigrants themselves
becomes direct participants in natural reproduction. And, on the other hand,
~ areas which have a constant migratory outflow of residents at the same time
' give to other regions a pcsrtion of their natural increase.
The literature contains several proposals for possible approaches to evaluating
the results of the effect of migration on the reproduction of population. These
are primarily statements of a general nature, which are not accompanied,
as a rule; by any corresponding calculations. For example, Ye. Gladyshev
and T. Daganyev, while emphasizing that on the basis of data from current
�
statistics it is not possible to discover the direcC influence of inechanical
movement on the nature and dynamics of the birthrate, death rate and, conse-
quently, the rate of natural increase," consider that a concept of this
influence may yield an analysis of the differences in the course of natural
movement processes for cities with different types of migration.l
However, this approach is applicable if no great differences exist in the
indicators for the natural reproduction of residents in settlement points
in the period under study. In any other circumstances the correspondi.ng
comparisons for the level of migration will be unfounded. V. Dzhaoshvili
praposes adherence to the same kind of inethodological arrangement in
determining the influence of raigration processes on the natural increase in
�
the population. In his opinion it is necessary to compare rayons which
are identical in all other aspects and differ only in the given factor"2
in order to discover the influence of the migration factor on the natural
movement of the population. This approach, which is suitable for comparisons,
nonetheless, does not make it possible to evaluate the specific
scale of change in natural population increase in a region as a result of
migration. In addition, opportunities to apply it are limited by the fact
that it is relatively complicated to select identical objects for analysis.
Moreover, it is incorrect to correlate the results of the effect of migration
processes on the features of the natural movement of population exclusively
with the magnitude of migratory increase characteristic for any given territory.
The mechanism by which raigration influences population reproduction is much
more complicated.
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A. Kvasha and G. KiseZeva proceed from the assumption that "the influence of
migration on population reproduction is manifested both through change in the
age structure, as well as through the arrival in the city of a population
which has standards of reproductive behavior which differ from those of the
indigencus cirizens; they consider that one possible solution to the problem
of accounting for the influence of migration on reproduction is to be found
in the development of a system of standard models for the intensity of the
transition from one state to another. These models make it possible to propose '
amendments varying in magnitude to the prediction of the number of births
in any given part of the country. For this purpose use can be made of a system
of standard combined tables of mortality rates and migration in which a
differing level of mortality is combined with a given intensity of age migration.3
This kind of inethod is of undoubted interest since it is based on the use of
the most substantia7. factors influencing natural reproduction (the age-sex.
compositi,on and the reproductive rates of the immigrants). But without special
preliminary research, the use of this method is made more difficult due to
the determination of the reproductive rates of the immigrants and thP ;rtensity
of change in the rates over time and the establishment of a period in :ahich
there will be a levelling off of the differences i.n the standards for the
reproductive behavior of the immigrants and the indigenous population at the
point of settlement.
Those works which contain concrete calculations of the natural movement of the
population and migrants are of the greatest interest. These are mainly calculations
of the level of the birthrate and the proposed number of births as a result of
change� in the age-sex structure of the population in the regions participating
in the migration exchange. For example, A. Topilin calculated the birthrate
factor and the number of babies who were born into families of immigrants
in 1969; he arrived at his figures by weighing age indicators for the population
on the age structure of the migrants and by making corrections to the ratio
between men and women among the immigrants and among the entire population of
the RSFSR.4 Ye.Bol'shakova applied similar calculations. In order to clarify the
influence of the migration level of women of fertile age on the birthrate a
determination was made of the proposed number of births if the age structure of
the population changed only as a result of natural processes, i.e., by death.
The calculation was based on actual distribution of those born in 1969 according
to age of the mother.s
Yu.Krasnoshchek proposed the use of a method of demographic modeling to analyze
the effect of migration on the features of the natural movement of the population.6
In his models the change in the number of births is viewed as a function of
the dynamics of the number of women as a result of migration. This method was
approved using as an example the rural population of the Ukrainian SSR (i.e.,
womcn, 1969-1970) and the population of the city of Kiev ~.a,men, 1958-1959).
- Tf~is approach to evaluating the influence of migration on the features of natural
popialar_ion movement, like any other method of demographic modeling, requires
special information and is extremely labor-intensive. It can be applied only
to large population entities, because it proposes the use of indicators from
actuarial tables on life span which apply to the population of the area under study.
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It is obvious that one of the exami.ned methods of evaluating the results of
the effect of migratic.n on the dynamics of the indicators for natural population
movement makes it possit.le to carry out the corresponding calculations for the
territdrial redistributic�z of the natural increase on a nationwide scale.
Ndnetheless, calculations ~f this kind are, in our opinion, possible althotigh
extremely difficult. T'.zis is related first of all to the ~.iadequate level of
study devoted to the mechanism of the influence of the migration processes
on the intensity of the birthrate and death rate of the population in regions
of migration, as well as of the new settlers themselves. The data of numerous
special studies are fragmented and contradictory and cannot yield an unambiguous
answer to this question because the investigations concern various territories,
- were conducted at various ti.mes and according to various programsa In other
words, the current level of sociological investigation under favorable circum-
stances makes it possible to enumerate the factors which in one way or another
must be connected with the influence of migration on natural reproduction,
as well as to point out the possible direction of the effect of every factor
taken separately.
In addition, evaluating the i.nfluence of migration on the redistribution of
natural population increase among the territories and settled areas of the
country requires comparable information on the birthrate and death rate for
permanent residents and immigrants, and the information must relate to
all the territories under study. The information available in the literature
concerning the conditions of natural reproduction among migrants and the permanent
population are extremely contradictory. For exa.mple, the results of a study of
women on birthrate issues conducted in 1966-1967 by staff inembers of the
Latvian Branch of the Scientific Research Institute of the USSR Central Statisti-
cal Administration and the Ministry of Health of the Latvian SSR provides
evidence tY,.at the new arrivals have on average no more children than the
old time residents, and have hardly any influence on the level of the republic's
birthrafie.~ Qn the contrary, materials from an investigation of Leningrad
families in 1974-1975 and of the population in the city of Kazan' in 1974 show
that the indigenous residents of the cities have fewer children than the
immigrants, and a higher proportion of ahildless couples.$ The q~iestion ~
which was introduced i.n 1979 into the civil status acts,"How many years have
you lived in your place of permanent residence?", provides an opportunity to
evaluate the real differences in the level of the birthrate among permanent
residents and immigrants. At the same time, however, analagous information
conc erning the level of mortality is lacking; for this reason it is essential
when determining its hypothetical level to orient oneself toward the particular
(in comparison with the entire population) age and se~c structure of the immigrants.
In addition, the available statistical information on the birthrate first
of all provides evidence of zhe natural reproduction levels of the new settlers
in the regi~n of immigration, and it does not make it possible to characterize
the actual losses in the birthrate for various territories as a result
of the exodus of population, because migration, as a number of special
studies have shown,9 may result in changed reproductive patterns amon~ the
newcomers. In this regard, differences only ir. the age-sex structure of
permanent residents and migrants must be taken into accotmt in the estimated
calculations regarding the role of i.mmigrants in the natural population increase
in regions with a negative or positive migration increase during a given period.
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' With a few clarifications this method for evaluating the role of migrants in the
natural population reproduction in the regions of intensive economic development,
which is based on the age-sex composition of the permanent residents and migrantsl0
can be used for all the territories of the country, regardless of whether they
have a negative or positive migration increase.
The formulae proposed for calculating the scale of redistribution of the
natural population increase resulting from migration with consideration for
structural differences are based on the application of complex percentages.
The essence of the calculations cor~sists in the following. In al~egion of migration
the natural increase which applies to the entire population (E) is made
up of the natural increase of the population (E,) and of the migrants(E~m)~ s
E=E~-I- E:~. ~ E~)
In this case we are talking about an algebraic sum because the territories
with a positive migration increase will have a value for Em which is greatez
than zero, and the regions which are losing population wi11 have a value
for Em which will '~e negative.
The natural increase for the entire population of the region under study (E)
cannot be divided into two equal parts because in the first place, the
values for the migration increase and the original population f igure do not
coincide either absolutely or in time and, in the second place, the indicators
of natural increase for the population which resides in the region of migration
and for the migrants are not the same. The particular age structure of the
immigrants, which is characterized by a predominance of relatively young age
groups in the migratory streams, influences the general i.ndicators of natural
increase among the migrants, which are greater than among the permanent population.
Taking into account the features of the age structure, and, consequently,
the differences in the indicators for natural repro duction a.mon~ the perma.nent
population residing in the migration region and among the migrants, the
total natural increase in residents in the given territory (E) can be
divided into its component parts in the following manner:
Es _ S� 1-}- ~ e~ 3`~ (2)
C )
where S is the average population, residing in the given region,without
migration or natural increase, for the entire period under 5~udy.
Its value is essentially equal to the original figure
for population of a given region (S~ i.e., S= S� . In this
case it is hypothetically excluded that some of the local residents
might die or leave the region;
es is the average indicator of increase in the population which
resided in the region at the start of the period under study;
i is the number of years in the period~
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- The mag,iitude of the natural increase which arises from the newcomers, is
determined according to the formulas
i
E,~ a 1~ Cl ~e~ M, (3)
where M is the average value of' the migration increase far the entire period
under study;
e~ is the average indicator for the natural increase of ilnmigrants.
The use of M as an independent variable for calculating E m results m2inly
from the fact that we are talking about an estimate of the sCale of migratory
redistribution of natural increase. Despite the fact that not onl,y immigrants
but also emigrants take part in the natural ~ovement of the regions�
population, nonetheless, f~om the viewpoint of an estimation of migration
consequenc~s in the area of natural reproduction, the ma~itude of the
natural increase in migrants (Em) will be determined by the results of
migration during any given period.
The magnitude of M should be calculated according to the formula for the grand
mean from the sample means for equal intervals of time; this makes it possible
to take into account the erratic nature of mi.gration processes within the
framework of the period under examination:
7JlA 3Ato~1 ~ip_q'~'..."~' ~~p ~ 1~ lJil ~4~
i ~
0
where m�is the entire migrational increase in the i period of migration
(I~ 1, 2, 3~ n; years).
Also, while the results of migration in the first half of the period under study
will be decisive when using this method to calculate M, the lack of births
among imaaigrants during a certain period after mi.gration will be taken into
account to a certai.n degree in E m.
With regard to individual territories the ratio of actual and average
migration increases is not identical and depends on the distribution in time
and the sign of the actual migration increase. While regions with a stable
migration ~rowth (whether positive or negative) have an M(according to the
modulus) wlich does not go beyond the actual migration increase for any given
period, while the areas which originally received population as a result of
migration but subsequently nad negative migration growth, have an M which
may be greater than its actual value (for exasnple, I959-I978 in Razkhstan,
Moldavia, and Khirgizia~. .
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In order to determine the values of the indicators ES and eS and e~,�
; it is essential to know the average actual level of natural increase of
, all the residents of a given territory for the entire period. For this we
use the formulas
' . _ 1 -
~ ~Sn+~y~(]:}. ~e~1 :$k-(M-M), ~5)
\
~
after the transformation of which we will obtains
t
e~ =1000 C~ S'~ - M+ M -1, ~ (6)
Sn -I- M
where M is the total migration i.ncrease of population in the region during the
period under examination;
Sk is the figure for the population residing in the region by the
end of the period under study;
ef is the mean actual indicator of natural growth in the entire
p~pulation of the given region for the entire period.
On the basis of equations (1), (2), (3) and (5), it is not difficult to
determine the average indicators of natural increase in permanent residents
(es) and of immigrants (e~) and the formula for their rela~ionship
with indicator ef,
In the right hand part of equation (5), Sk (the size of the population at
the end of the period under study) will be equal tot
$k ~ Sn E-}- M or Sh - S-I- E-~- M,
because it was presumed that the average size of the population residing in the
region (without taking into account the natural and migrational increases)
is essentially equal to its original size ~Srt ~S~ �
By making the corresponding changes in the i.ndicators Sk a.nd � S ~ i.n formula
(5), we will obtainr -
/ 1t
~S~' M~ ll + 10001 E ~-1R.
Hence the natural increase which applies to the entire population for the
entire period (E) will be equal tos
t
E ~ (j~ M) ~ 1-~- 10
} - ~S -I- /V � ~8)
~
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In equation (1) let us substitute the values for indicators E, ES and E~ derived
from forumlae (2), (3) and (8). As a result we obtain:
_ - ~ ~
~S + M~ ~ 1 + 10 mm , + 1 e~ ~ ~ M \ 1 + 1000, ~ ~9f
Having divided both parts of equation (9) by (S + M), we shall obtain the
folloWing forlnula for the dependence of the indicators of natural increase
eg, es and e~s
(1-~- t~ V, 1-}- e' l`-}- Va~ (1-f- e"` , (10j
\ 1000, ( 1000/ ` 1000 . .
where VS is the proportion of the average population residing in the given .
~ region before migrations
Vm is the proportion of average migration increase.
From the last equation it is not difficult to extract the indicators of
national increase fnr permanent residents ( es) and ~or isnmigrants ( e~) s
! ~e _
i
- \1+ 1e~/ rv~`\1+ is~ � ~
e~ -1000 v -1 ~11)
a ,
~ . ` ~ ~ !
_ ~ (1 -F - v,(1 ? 1000 / _
e,~ =1000 ~ 1 . (12)
VA
A ma jority of the indicators used i.n the formulae (S, S� , Sk, M, M, VS, V~, e f~~
can be obtained either directly or they can be calculated relatively unambiguously
on the basis.of statistical data. The mai.n methodological difficulties lie
in the determination of the values for the coefficients es and em. Ttiwo approaches
are possible heres they differ from each other in which unknown indicator
(es or e~) is chosen as the in itial one for substitution in equation (10).
The first approach. The coefficient of the natural increase in immigrants
(em) is taken as the independent variable. The ess.~nce of this approach
lies in the determination of the coefficients of the birthrate, the mortality
rate and the rate of natural increase by converting the respective age
i.ndicators for the entire population to the age structure of the immigrants.
But, because of the ambiguity of the influence of the migration processes on
population reproduction for regions witih positive or negative migration
increase, the methods for calculating em cannot be the same. .
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B~�cause t:he ~mtni~ration stream going into regions of settlements is formulated
- on the basis of the population in nearly all of the territories of the
Soviet Union, the value of em can be calculated hypothetically on the basis of
the average, union-wiae indicators for the birthrate and death rate by age.
This is justified since the acerage indicator does not reflect individual
differences in the population�s reproduction habits. In addition, although tt~e
value of the nationwide average indicators for the natur al movement are
also determined by their level in territories with high birthrates and compara-
tively low migration mobility of residents (the republics of Central Asia and
Trans C aucasia), the differences in the territorial structures of the population
- and of the immigrants can be ig:iored in estimated calculations, and recourse
does not have to be made to the relatively labor-intensive two-fold standardization
(i.e., according to age and area of departure) of birthrate and death rates
- by age. This assumption is justified by the fact that when it is converted
to the territorial structure of the new arrivals (according to the 1970 population
census), the coefficient of natural inerease for the USSR population amounts
to 86-92 percent of its actual magnitude for the years I970-1978.12 In cases
where the indicators of natural papulation increase for the immigration area
differ insignificantly from the aaerage unionrwide level, we comp].etely allow
the conversion of the birth rate and death rate indicators by age for the local
population to the age structure of the new arrivals. In other words, for
r~gions which have close to average levels of natural population movement
there is no fundamental differences as to which reproduction conditions (in
regions of de~arture or settlement) are taken as the foundation for calculation
of the em coeffic:ients. At the same time, the use of indicators for natur al
reproduction of population in places of settlement is hardly justified for areas
with reduced or elevated indicators of reproduction. Thus, it is hardly likely
that the immigrants coming from regions with a low birthrate to a region with a
high one will shift to the new reproduction conditions. For this reason it is
possible to use here only those indicators of natural population movement which
are average for the country.
For regions with a negative migration increase it is essential to determine
indicator em on the basis of the coefficients by age of the birthrate and
death rate of the population in a given area. This is the result primarily of
the fact that the migration processes here reduce the size of the population
not only as a consequence of its outflow but also as a consequence of the
losses in natural increase (people in the most active reproductive ages are
excluded). This method of calculating the natural increase coefficient for
immigrants is applicable for all regions which have a negative migration ,
increase, regardless of what the rate of reproQuction is there. In a parallel
manner it is possible to use average union-wide indicators for natural
population mvoement, but exclusively for territories which have natural
increase coefficients which come close to the average level for the country.
Second approach. The coefficient of natural inerease for the permanent population
(es) is viewed as the initial indicator. First of all it can be assumed that
~'S approximately corresponds to the average value for the natural increase
coefficient of the USSR population. The possibility of using average indicators
was already discussed. What has been said above relates to a certain degree
to the regions of intensive settlement, where migration over an extended
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period of time functions as a very important source of population growth. In these
areas the permanent population is made up of emigrants from all regions of the coun-
try, and for this reason the reproduction rate is close to the average level for
the country. At the same tiune the uses of the national average coefficient of nat-
ural populaf.ion increase as es is possible not only for territories which have ex-
perienced intens~ve settlement in the past, but also for all other regions which have
- natur3l reproduction indicators Which are close to the average.
If, however, the rate of population reproduction i.n an area differs from the average
level, then the average union-wide indicators cannot be used. In that case the re-
production rate of the permanent population can be hypothetically equated with its
level among residents of the given area at the start of the period under examination.
The difficulty in the application of this calculation is the result of the fact
that the rate of papulation reproduction i.n a region builds.up under the influence
not only of migration processes but also as a resiilt of changes in the birthrate
and death rate (by age) of the permanent population. For this reason the most ra-
tional path is to take as the initial indicator not simply the coefficient of nat-
ural increase for the starting year of the period under study but its average
actual value over a nwnber of initial years.
The method examined above was tested and offic ially approved using a number of areas
in the country as examples. The calculations showed that migration processes are
an important factor ~n the natural population reproduction in regions with :ntensive
migration. For example, in the Kazakh SSR the total increase in population amounted
_ to i.l million people during 1951-1973; this included an immigration increase of
1.5 million and a natural increase of 5.6 million people. Moreover, the natural
increase in the incoming population amounted to 1.1 million people, or one-fifth
of the total figure. Thus, migration cesulted in a 2.6 million increase in the size
of the republic's population during 23 years; this represents 37 percent of the
total population increase during this period. In other words, eve~y third or fourth
resident who is part of the total population increase is either himself a newcomer
or the offspring of one.13
Migration is of particular significance in the populatiai reproduction of those areas
where population has grown intensively over a period of decades. For example, in
the general population increase ~f the Far East during the period from 1920 through
1970 newcomers and their offspring accounted for two-thirds of the growth, although
the migration increase during thi~e years hardly amounted to one-fourth of the
entire populat=^:? of the region.
We calculated the scale for the redistribution of the natural i.ncrease resulting
from the migration effect on the population reproduction for the urtion republics
and for the economic rayons of the RSFSR during the years 1959-1978. In the last
20 years (1959-1978), about 5.7 million people of the natural increase, or one-
tenth of the total figure, were redistributed throughout the union republics and
economic ra:ons of the RSFSR as a result of total migration. Moreover, the role mf
the newcomers in reproduction was most active in the rayons with relatively low
intensity of natural movement. For exatnple, the highest propor tion of offspring of
immigrants in ttn natural increase--30 out of 100 people (in the Central Asian repub-
lics this figure was 4-5)--is observed in the Baltic republics. At the same time
the size of the natural increase proved ~o be one-seventh less in regions with a
negative migration increase resulting from the exclusion of a si.gnificant number
of people in the child-bearing years frrrTM: reproduction.
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Ir~ if?~ yc~ars 1959-1978 migration processes resulted in the redistribution of
t.hc natural increase, mainly from regions with a reduced birthrate to a larger
degree in favor of the territories which have a high birthrate and to a
somewhat lesser degree in favor of the regions with relatively low reproduction
indicators. If the P^~ire natural increase of newcomers in 1959-1978, which was
concentrated in reg'.ons with positive migrati.on increase, is taken as 1.~0 percent,
its pr~portion in re~ions with lower than average intensity of natural renroduction
(the North-Western and Central rayons, the Ukraine, the Baltic republics) tot~ls
36.4 percent, while in the regions with an elevated intensity of natural movement
(the Far East, Central Asia, R:azakhStan, Moldavia, Armenia) it was 43.I percent.
At the same time, out of 100 percent of the losses in natural increase resulting
from emigration outflow, areas with a low birthrate (the Volgo-Vyatskiy, Central-
_ Non Black Earth, Povolzhskiy and Ural'skiy rayons) account for 63.4 percent,
and territories with a relatively high birthrate (Eastern Siberia, Georgia,
Azerbaijan) ac~ounted for only 9 percent. T~is kind of migration distribution
of the natural increase is a direct reflection of the trends and intensity of
the migratory streams and especially of the intense outflow of residents from
the central rayons of the RSFSR. Under these condi:tions the optimalization of
migration also means an improvement in the processes of natural reproduction
of the population.
FOOTNOTES
1. Ye.N. Gladysheva, T.K. Dagayeva, "Certain Aspects of the Itifluence of
Migration on the Formation of the Population of Cities in Northern Kazakhstan,"
in the book "Voprosy demografii" /Issues of Demography7, Kiev, 1968, p 180.
2. V. Sh. Dzhaoshvili, "Featu~es of the Regional Differences in the Reproduction
of the Population" in the book "Rayonnyye osobennosti vosproizvodstva
naseleniya SSSR. Materialy Vsesoyuz. mezhvuz. nauch. simposiuma (g, Cheboksary
May 1968 g)" /Regional Features of USSR Population. Materials of the A~?~Union
Inter-WZ Scientific Symposium (city of Cheboksay, May 1968)7, CY~eboksary,
1972, p 44.
3. A. Kvasha, G. Kiseleva, "Trends in the Reproduction of the USSR Population"
in the book "Vozobnovleniya pokoleniy nashey strany" ~enewal of the Generations
in Our Country7, Moscow, 1978, p 11. -
4. A.V. Topilin, "Territorial'noye pereraspredeleniye trudovyjCh resursov v SSSR"
/Territorial Redistribution of Labor Resources in the USSR/, Moscow, 1975, pp 28-29.
S. Ye. Bol'shakova, "Improving the Methods for Regional Demographic Analysis"
in the collection "Demograficheskiy analiz rozhdayemosti" ~emographie
Analysis of the Birthrate7, Moscow, 1974, pp 27-28. '
G. Y~u T. Krasnoshchek, "Migration and the Aging of the Population" in the
collection "Voprosy demograficheskoy teorii, Tematich. sbornik" ~ssues of
Demographic Theory. A Thematic Collection7, Kiev, 1975, pp 118-140.
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7. B. Ya. MezhE;aylis, "Current Issues of Population in the Latvian SS~t" in
~he collection "Voprosy demografii" ~ssues of Demography7, Moscow, 1970,.p 233.
8. E.K. Vasil'yeva, "The Family and Migration," in the~book "Demograficheskiye
problemy sem'yi" ~emagraphic Problems of the Family?, Moscow 1978, pp 149-163,
9. L.M. Lavtyan, "Conce:.ning Features of Population Migration in the Armenian
SSR" in the book "Problemy migratsii naseleniya i trudovykh resursov" ~?roblems
of Population Migration and Labor Resources~j, Moscow, 1970, p 99o G,M. Korostelev,
"Style Change and Demographic Behavior" in the book "Di,xlamika izmeneniya
polozheniya zhenshchiny i sem'ya" ~ynamics of Change in the Position of
Women and the Fami1~7, Moscow, 197~, pp 60-67; and others.
10.See L.L. Rybakovskiy, "Regional'nyy analiz migratsiy" /Regional Analysis
of Migration7, Moscow, 1973, pp 23-29.
11. The permanent population arbitrarily i.ncludes residents living in the region
at the start of che period under study and their offspring.
12. It has ~een calculated. S ee: "Itogi Vsesoyuznoy perepisi naseleniya 1970
~ goda" ~esults of the All-Union Census of 19707, Vol V I~, Moscow, 1974, pp 6-7;
"Narodnoye khozyastvo SSSR v 1978 godu. Stat. yezhegodnik" ~he USSR
National Economy in 1978. Statistical Yearbook7, Moscow, 1979, p 27.
13. "Sotsial'nyye faktory i osobennosti migratsii naseleniya USSR" ~ocial Factors
and Features of USSR Population Migration], Moscow, 1978, p 133.
14. L.L. Rybakovskiy, ~~Regional~nyX analiz migratsiy" ~egional Analysis of
Migration7, Moscow, 1973, p 29.
COPYRIGHTs Izdatel'stvo "Finansy i statistika", 1982
8543 ~
CSO: 1828/85 E~
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