TALKING POINTS ON SOVIET/CUBAN INVOLVEMENT IN ETHIOPIA(Sanitized)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81B00401R002100010002-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 18, 2003
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: March 17, 1978
• Content Type: PAPER

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TALKING POINTS ON SOVIET/CUBAN INVOLVEMENT
IN ETHIOPIA
I. Cubans
A. Total about 14,000 - daily EAL flights bring Cubans from Angola
B. About 10,000 ground combat forces
1. Form a division
2. Five generals, some experienced in Angola
C. Abou pilots - flew combat missions in Ogaden
D. Miscellaneous advisers, garrisons, etc.
(Aseb
Photo) 1. Assab unit - logistics
2. Intelligence Unit
3. Eritrea
a. Less than iI
b. Advisers
II. Soviets
A. Total more than 1,100
B. Their activities
1. Eight generals and their staffs are running the war
a. General Petrov is senior
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Makes plans & passes to Ethiopians & Cubans to carry out
Final arbitrator of disagreements on conducting war
Some Soviet-Ethiopian friction, but not great
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b. Two generals directing Ethiopians in Eritrea
2. Maintaining billion dollars worth of equipment
3. Training Ethiopians
4. Advising major Ethiopian units in all theaters
5. Supply
a.F___Ifflights in last 3 months by Soviet aircraft
b. Soviet & Bloc mux- nt. s since last summer
c. Soviets flying some in-country ferry flights & Soviet
ships moving troops between Assab & Massawa
None known to be in combat so far
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The number of Soviet advisers in Ethiopia is over 1,000.
--Most of the Soviet advisers are in Addis Ababa or nearby training
bases. The Soviets in the capital are assigned to help Ethiopians
in high-level positions in the military and Ministry of Defense.
They provide guidance on strategic planning, arms requirements, and
logistics.
--More than 100 Soviets are working with the Ethiopian air fie
program, and others are training Ethiopians in the use of other
recently acquired Soviet weapons.
--General Petrov heads the Soviet military advisory effort and also
directs the use of Cuban forces. Seven other Soviet generals are
in Ethiopia.
--Some Soviets S o v i e t s overseeing the city's fj1 AS and the
flow of supplies through the port.
--Some Soviets serve as crews for the AN-12 transp ,'ts the Soviets
have leased to Ethiopia or internal transport.
--During the Ogaden offensive, Soviet advisers manned a tactical
--The Soviets are now helping to plan an Ethiopian offensive in-
Eritrea.
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SOVIET INVOLVEMENT IN ETHIOPIA
There are more than 1,100 Soviet military personnel in Ethiopia,
maintaining the weapons and equipment delivered by the Soviets over the
past eight months--estimated at one-billion dollars worth--and providing
technical services and providing instruction for the Ethiopian Army and
advising Ethiopian units. Soviet advis rs are concentrated at the
Ministryr of Defense, and some are located with the major units, in all
theaters, including Eritrea. Soviet General Petrov was in over-all
control of the Ogaden campaign. He and his staff formulate the long-
term and strategic plans, which are passed on to the Ethiopians and
Cubans to be implemented. General Petrov is also the final arbitrator
for disagreements concerning the conduct of the war in the Ogaden.
There has been some friction between the Ethiopians and their Soviet
mentors, but PMAC Chairman Mengistu usually accepts Petrov's recommen-
dations, and the differences have not been great.
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Soviet ships
have been active in the Red Sea providing security for the oviet and 25X1
Bloc merchant ships that have called at Ethiopian ports since the sealift
began last summer. General Soviet landing t have taasforrax 4_ ;ian
troops between Massawa and Assab. There have also been aboutiflights 25X1
by Soviet cargo and passenger aircraft over the past three months, and
daily flights by EAL aircraft ferrying Cuban combat troops from Angola.
This material has poured in so fast that the Ethiopians had difficulty
assimilating it.
While the great bulk of communist weaponry and military equipment
coming from the USSR, the Rnmiat-alli-ea are also contributing signifi-
cant amounts of material sunoort. Besides that, the Fast Germans have
undertaken a reorganization of the Ethiopian security services. The
PDRY has contributed some military personnel.
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The total number of Cubans in Ethiopia is estimated
to be approximately 13,500-14,500, including some 1,000
advisers and medical personnel.
-- The majority of the Cubans ? (about 10,000)
are combat troops located in the Ogaden.
-- In addition, there is an unspecified
number of logistical personnel stationed
in Assab.
-- A small number of Cubans is also located in
in Eritrea. Less than 100. They are general advisors.
-- There is also an intelligence unit located
in i Ethiopia.
Three of the generals have serve
Angola.
As in Angola, the Cuban Government has sent
some of its most competent and experienced
generals to serve as commanders in Ethiopia.
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The overall Cuban commander is Division General
Arnaldo Ochoa, who arrived in Ethiopia in April 1977.
-- The other generals apparently arrived about
six weeks ago and probably were handpicked by
Ochoa. All have served with him in Cuba or
Angola.
Division General Julio Casas Requeiro is the second-
ranking Cuban officer in Ethiopia and appears to be
serving as chief of Cuban logistics there.
-- He performed the same function during the
buildup of Cuban forces in Angola. Before
he arrived, Casas was the chief logistic
officer of the Cuban Armed Forces.
Ochoa's headquarters is in Addis Ababa,. but he has
traveled frequently to his subordinate units. The Cubans
have established regional headquarters at Dire Dawa, Jijiga,
and the port of Assab.
-- Cuban air operations are controlled by the
unit in Dire Dawa, which apparently is
commanded by Brigade General Sixto Batista
Santana.
-- He is a Vice Minister of the Cuban Armed
Forces and is their chief political
officer. His background does not include
the combat experience of the other generals.
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-- Ground combat operations are supervised by
the regional headquarters in Jijiga. Before
Jijiga fell on 5 March, this headquarters was
located in Harar.
-- Casas, in addition to his logistical duties,
also is the commanding general at Jijiga.
-- The Assab unit controls and coordinates the
movement of men and material to and from
Cuban bases throughout Ethiopia..
The three mechanized brigades are under the control
of the headquarters in Harar.
-- One of the brigades is commanded by Brigade
General Leopoldo Cintra Frias, who has also
served in Angola.
Because the Cuban brigades in Ethiopia are heavily
augmented by artillery, Cintra's background is ideal for
this assignment.
-- He has commanded a mechanized infantry division
and was chief of artillery for two years.
-- His brigade was instrumental in the battle in
the China Hasen area and was a key unit in the
assault on Jijiga.
A second brigade may be under the command of Brigade
General Juan Aqustin Mendez-Sierra.
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-- He has served as commander of Cuba's Eastern
Army, one of the island's three armies.
-- We do not know the identity of the commander
of the third brigade.
There are about ^ Cuban pilots in Ethiopia. They flew combat missions
in the Harar area.
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Soviet Intentions in the Horn and in the Middle East
The Soviets are in no mood to compromise following their
success in the Ogaden:
--unwilling to discuss any reduction in the Soviet
or Cuban presence in Ethiopia,
--unwilling to discuss stationing of UN--observers-
in the Ogaden
--willing to help Addis Ababa put pressure on the
guerillas in Eritrea in order to arrange a settle-
ment on terms favorable to Ethiopia,
--willing to increase military support for Mengistu
if he fails to reach a settlement with Eritreans,
--are already providing logistical support for
Massawa and ferrying supplies to Asmara, and
--agree with Cubans that Ethiopia must maintain
access to the Red Sea.
Cuba will also provide assistance to force Eritreans to
the bargaining table
--will probably fly airstrikes and reconnaissance
missions,
--may provide security forces to defend key towns
that are recaptured from the insurgents
In the wake of their success on the Horn, the Soviets
will now increase their support for insurgent groups in
Rhodesia and capitalize on improved ties with Arab op-
ponents of Sadat:
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--increase military assistance to Syria, Algeria,
and South Yemen,
--exploit Qadhafi's willingness to finance S Zr ian
purchases of Soviet arms, and
--encourage an anti-Sadat, anti-US-front of Arab
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Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt
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 Eritrean Rebel Organizations
ELF
Leader
Eritrean People's Liberation
Front
Secretary General
Eritrean Liberation
Front
President
Eritrean Liberation Front/
Popular Liberation Forces
Secretary General
h Sabbe
l
S
Major Group
Ramadan Mohammed Nur (titlar)
Deputy Secretary General
Isaias Afework (real)
Christians
Ahmed Mohammed Nasser
Beni Amir Muslims
e
a
Osman
Muslims
Ideology
Marxist
Socialist with religious
rtones
l
ib
Conservative
ove
a
and tr
000
15
5,000
Fighters 15,000
,
No action on'77 agreement Cooperate military, but
in principle to unite remain seperate
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Sudan
Eritrean Insurgency
E r i t re4,
ELF n . .' 7"' LF
Gliondar
Red
Sea
Ethiopia
Area of Map Map
ADDIS ABABA*
Asmaral ) }