PROBABLE POSTPONEMENT OF COMMUNIST CHINA'S THIRD FIVE YEAR PLAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01003A001900140001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 9, 1999
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 1, 1964
• Content Type: BRIEF

Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900140001-5
CONFIDENTIAL
Current Support Brief
PROBABLE POSTPONEMENT
OF COMMUNIST CHINA'S THIRD FIVE YEAR PLAN
CIA/RR CB 64-19
March 1964
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
CONFIDENTIAL
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
d c s ific lion
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO10 001-5
 Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900140001-5
WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900140001-5
 Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900140001-5
C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
PROBABLE POSTPONEMENT
OF COMMUNIST CHINA'S THIRD FIVE YEAR PLAN
Public statements in recent months by some of the top economic
officials of Communist China have contained strong suggestions that the
beginning of China's Third Five Year Plan, which normally would have
begun in 1963, has been postponed until 1965 or 1966.. The annual eco-
nomic plans for 1964, and possibly for 1965, apparently will continue to
reflect the "readjustment" policies of the past 3 years. It is expected
that these plans will involve a continued low level of investment; will
set moderate production targets for all but a few priority sectors sup-
porting agriculture and defense; and will place primary reliance on do-
mestic sources of raw materials, equipment, and technical know-how.
Continued stagnation of the economy can be expected to delay Pei-
ping's original timetable for industrializing the Chinese mainland,
which is at least 3 years behind schedule already as a result of the
failure of the "leap forward, 11 the cut off of Soviet aid, and successive
years of poor crops. The delay in launching the Third Five Year Plan
provides additional evidence that piecemeal readjustments during 1961-63
may have been less effective than anticipated.
1 . Search for a Long-Term Plan
Although the Third Five Year Plan was scheduled to begin on 1 Janu-
ary 1963, the stagnation of the economy and the postponement of the an-
nual meeting of the National People's Congress from the second to the
fourth quarter of 1963 implied that only an annual plan was in effect for
1963. Indeed, there was little mention of a Third Five Year Plan until
late in the year, although. a number of planning units were reported to
be drafting both 5-year and 10-year programs.
The first firm indications that the next long-term plan might be de-
ferred until the economy was on a sounder footing came in October 1963.
According to Foreign Minister Ch'en Yi, the National People's Congress
was to discuss the drafting of a new long-term program, although a
final decision had not been reached as to whether the plan should be for
5, 7, or 10 years. Many persons, he said, believed that a conventional
5-year plan (1963-67) would cover too short a period, particularly be-
cause 1 more year was needed to complete readjustments. l/ The
communique issued after the secret session of the National People's
Congress in November 1963 made no reference to long-term planning.
Approved For fte -At2dO&/D4ti'~-TC1Ap'RbP79T01003A001900140001-5
 Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900140001-5
C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
Statements by Ch'en Yi implied that the next long-term program --
whatever its length -- would not be launched before 1965. A later date
for initiation of a long-term plan was implied by Po I-po, chairman of
the State Economic Commission, who remarked that planning for an eco-
nomic advance would not begin until 1965. 2/ The issue of China Recon-
structs for January 1964 also seemed to suggest a later start for a new
plan with the statement that readjustments must continue for a "short
period. " 3/
2. Implied Economic Policies
Although it is impossible to judge with certainty the period that the
next long-term plan will cover, recent commentary from Communist
China does make clear that, for the next year or so at least, no resump-
tion of rapid economic growth is scheduled. The basic planning docu-
ments will continue to span only 1 year, at least through 1964 and possibly
even through 1965, and economic policy will remain centered on the ex-
tension of greater support to agriculture, on the implementation of more
realistic production goals, and on the restoration of a system of reliable
statistical reporting.
1. FBIS. Daily Report (Far East), 29 Oct 63, p. BBB 1-2. OFF
USE.
Ibid., 30 Oct 63, p. BBB 10. OFF USE.
2. State, Hong Kong. Survey of China Mainland Press, no 3152,
3 Feb 64, p~ 9. U.
3. Yung Lung-kwei. "Economic Prospect: Further Advance,
China Reconstructs, Peking, vol xiii, no 1, Jan 64, p. 2-5. U.
25X1A
Analyst:
Approved For Release 2006/d411t FCiA R 3P19T01OO3A001900140001-5
 Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T01003A001900140001-5
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T01003A001900140001-5
 Analyst: A/F 25X1A
Approved Corr Release 000/04/17A S1~- gj1bb35A186~1900140001-5
Series Number
Date of Document
%'
N o.
165
- 200
165
166
169
- 17Z
CIA/RR CB 64-19
March 1964
Recipient
Date Returned
AD/RR 5 Mar 64
DAD/RR
St/p/c ._._._.....~_-_.Y-.., 9 Mar 64
OB /HRG/CGS, 3F30, H
OCR 25XX.119__ _._ /L.,Wo.-.. 6-4
t~NFID! ~{. ""-'- GROUP i
Excluded from eotomatlo
downgrading and
Classification
Number of Copies
9 Mar 64
Gy
RDP79T0-W. #3
40001-5 -- -
A* do
 App 9T6 0140001-5
C_~ 25X1A C~ (
25X1A
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900140001-5
 'CONFIDENTIAL
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900140001-5
SUBJECT- Distribution of Current Support Brief No. +b4=19., Probable
Postponement of Communist CbIa ,'s Third Five Year PlAn --- March
1964 Confidential)
Copy Noe Recipient
1 O/DDT, Room 7E32, Hdqtrs.
2-3 NIC
4 - 12 OCI Internal
13 - 15 ONE
16 - 21 St/CS/RR.
22 O/DDI - Chester Cooper
23-31 NSA C312
32 NSAL
33 - 230 ORR Distribution, St/A/Document Support Section, Room GH0915,
Hdqtrs< (sent direct to St/A/DSS, 9 Mar 64).
Distributed by O43
CONF1ETIA.L
G UP 1
Excluded from autamatlc
dowegrading and
declaawiflcatlon
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900140001-5
 CO FIDE TIAL
/A/DSS Dlstribut on of 'Culrren gOpPoO/jrel-RD,~~01,j900140001-5
i, astponement of Communist China's Third. Five Year Plan --- March
1964 (Confidential)
Copy No.
Recipient
*aARk
ih&
tt163
Ch/ E
St/PR
St/P/A
36-40
D/A (1 each branch)
41 - 46
D/MS (1 each branch)
47 - 52
D/ R (1 each branch)
53 - 60
D/M (1 each branch)
61 - 69
1)/I (1 each branch)
70 - 71
D/GG
72 - 73
D/GC
74
D/GC/X
75 - 80
RID/AN, Unit 4,
1B4004, Hq.
81
St/FM
82
Analyst/ Branch
A/F) 25X1A
83
GR/ CR
84
BR/CR
85
FIB /SR/ CR, Room 1 G27, Hq.
86
Library/ CR
87
IPI/ CR
88
VMR, A-18
89
AD/ 00
90
Chief, FDD
91
CDIOO
92
OCI/R.P/PS, Room 7G15, Hq.
93
DDI/CGS, Room 7F35, Hq.
94
DDI/CGS/HR, Room 3F30, Hq.
95 - 97
OSI
98
OBI
99 - 100
OTR/IS/IP, Room 532, Broyhill Bldg, (1 - OTR/SIC)
101
NPIC/CSD/REF, Room 1S518, Bldg. 213
102
Commandant Nat'l. War College, Ft. Leslie McNair, Attn: Classified
Records Section, Rm. 26, Nat'l. War College Bldg., Wash., 25, D. C.
103 - 113
114 - 127
128 - 137
138 - 139
140 - 143
144 - 155
156 159
160 - 161
162
ACSI/Army, Room 1C460, Pentagon
Navy, Director, ONI, Room 5B659, Pentagon
HQ. USAF, Attn: AFNIN-3D1, Room 4B137, Pentagon
Ass't. Secretary of Defense, ISA, Room 4D825, Pentagon
USIA, Warren Phelps, IRR/D, Room 701, Walker Johnson Building,
1734 New York Avenue, N. W.
State, INR Communications Center, Room 7818, State Dept. Bldg.
DIA, DIASA-ZC, Room 2DZ33, Pentagon
Dr. Neilson Debevoise, NSC, Room 365, Executive Office Building
Frank M. Charrette, Agency for International Development, Chief,
Statistics and Reports Division, Room 802, State Annex No. 1
165 kl - 200 A010MCd itoRLIgj 2 801 7indfA-&W I'd6g)t0019 r-11201 - 230 RRecords Center CO FI T A ! grading and
1 L a~siilcatlan
L1f 1 DENI
 Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900140001-5
12 March 1964
MI 40RMU4 FOR: Chief, Dissemination Control Branch, DU,?CR
t`am : Chief, Publications Staff, C1(R
~ UB, ~~ : Tranamittal of Material
It is requested that the attached copies of CIA/RR CB 61+-19,
Probable Postponement of Cam>m ist China's Third Five Year Plan March
174.- Confidential, be forwarded as f"oUovas
State, INR Communications Center,
Room :"818, State Dept . Bldg'
For Babassies in flong;,Kong..
Singapore, and Tokyo
25X1A
Attachments:
Copies #195 - #197 of CB 64-19
4 ~ EYED
l iv- dw:9;auiation requcsts;.d by
;his memorandum has been completed
BY: 1 WLY
Date: /,?. -~Wa2 /7'
Approved, 000/
X117 -~:;Cj4~I
DP79TO1 003AO01 900140001-5
 abject No.
Approved For Rele6lg-11 CIA-RDP79T01003A001900140001~5
15.5106 Report Series CIA/RR CB 64-19 Y m W_..__
' .tle Probable Postponement of Communist China's Third Five Year
Plan --- March 1964 (Confidential)
_esponsi.ble Analyst and Branch
A/F 25X1A
erlin, Germany
lucharest, Romania
3uudapest, Hungary
Far East
Bangkok, Thailand
Djakarta, Indonesia
long Ko
Mexico
Guatemala
Panama
Moscow, USSR
Orague, Czechoslovakia
;ofia, Bulgaria
Warsaw. Poland
Rangoon, Burma
Kuala Lumpur., Malaya
Saigon, Vietnam
Seoul, Korea
Brazillia, Brazil
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Bogota, Colombia
Santiago, Chile
_,.,.. _
C -' $ tore, British lvl~
La Paz, Bolivia
Taipei, Formosa
t T`olcyo, ,Japan
Montevideo, Uruguay
Caracas, Venezuela
Igrade, Yugoslavia
Vientiane, Laos
Tern, Switzerland
Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Africa
icann. Germany
Colombo, Ceylon
ussels, Belgium
Yaonde, Cameroun
t .openhagen, Denmark
Leopoldville, Congo
?, ,t?ankfurt. Germany
Addis Ababa, Ethopia.
neva, Switzerland
Ankara, Turkey
Accra, Ghana
t:lelsinki.. Finland
Athens, Greece
Abidjan, Ivory Coast
`!'he Hague, Netherlands
Cairo:, Egypt
Nairobi, Kenya
I sbon. Portugal
Damascus, Syria
Monrovia, Liberia
:i..ondon, England
Kabul, Afghanistan
'Tripoli, Libya.
m.,uxembourg, Luxembourg
Karachi, Pakistan
Rabat, Morocco
Mad rid, Spain
New Delhi, India
Lagos, Nigeria
-Oslo, Norway
Nicosia, Cyprus
Mog adi s c io, S oral
'aria, France
Tehran, Iran
Khartoum, Sudan
tonne=; Italy
Baghdad. Iraq
Tunis, Tunisia
itockholm. Sweden
Tel Aviv, Israel
Pretoria. South Africa
Vienna, Austria
Beirut, Lebanon
Algiers, Algeria
Amman, Jordon
Cotonou, Dahomey
Jidda, Saudi Arabia
Dakar, Senegal
Bamako, Mali
Wellington, New Zealand
Ottawa, Canada
Aanila, Philippines
Canberra, Australia
,Melbourne, Australia
I
Approved For R
I GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
: dM&7
T01003AO01900140001-5
 S-E-C-R-E-T
ApIUR)e5 ee ONS CONT/poi. PROC ss vG STET 1900140001-5
Subject G'l'
Analyst and Branch
25X1 A Data Initials
Unedited draft
Edited draft
)their
ae Text check
ba Source check
C. Releasable to:
25X1 C Yes
o GA G ^~GG-d . w c' t
25X1 C
25X1C
JJ /
41 sent to AD/RR
2 sent to DDI
'3 checked for release
)L/PSD notified to Disseminate
S-E-t -R- -T
Group 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
dec assification
Approved For Release 20004/1 t : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900140001-5