SOVIET UNION EASTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00865A001200020001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 6, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 17, 1975
• Content Type: NOTES

Approved For Release 2001/08/08 : CIA-RDP79T00865AO012000200Q6p Secret
No Foreign Discern
Soviet Union
Eastern Europe
Top Secret
June 17, 1975
SC No. 00447/75
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Background Use Only/ControZZed Dissem
Warning Notice
Sensitive Intelligence Sources and Methods Involved
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Classified by 005827
Exempt from general declassification schedule
of E. 0. 11652, exemption category:
y 5B (1), (2). and (3)
Automatically declassified
on: Date Impossible to Determine
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This publication is prepared for regional specialists in the Washington com-
munity by the USSR - Eastern Europe Division, Office of Current Intel-
ligence, with occasional contributions from other offices within the
Directorate of Intelligence. Comments and queries are welcome. They should
be directed to the authors of the individual articles.
June 17, 1975
Romania and Portugal Sign Friendship Treaty. . . . 1
Hungary: Damping Expectations. . . . ? . . . . . . 3
Bumper Grain Crop Likely in Eastern Europe . . . 5
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Romania and Portugal Sign Friendship Treaty
Portugal and Romania signed the first friendship
treaty between a NATO and a Warsaw Pact country dur-
ing the visit to Bucharest of President Costa Gomes from
June 13 to 16.
The 13-article document stresses national in-
dependence, sovereignty, and similarities between
the policies of the signatories and the nonaligned
world. It bears a striking resemblance to a treaty
signed in late May between Bucharest and Pyongyang,
when North Korean party boss Kim Il-song visited
Romania.
President Ceausescu heralded the treaty as "the
first of its kind between friendly countries that be-
long to different military blocs." Indeed, the ac-
cord is the first between a NATO member and an East
European nation since the conclusion of the Balkan
Pact between Yugoslavia, Greece, and Turkey in August
1954.
The final communique summarizing the talks points
out that Romania and Portugal as developing nations,
have much in common. It also stresses the usual
themes of the nonaligned countries--the need to over-
come the gap between developed and developing nations,
concern over de-colonization, and the desirability
of a new political and economic order in interna-
tional relations.
The two sides signed long-term trade, economic,
technical, and scientific agreements. In addition,
they agreed to establish a joint commission to develop
new forms of economic and industrial cooperation.
On the heels of the Gomes visit--on June
17--
the Romanian chief of staff, Colonel-General
Coman,
June 17, 1975
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began a six-day visit to Portugal. Coman's trip
takes place four months after General Fabiao, his
Portuguese counterpart, visited Romania. Fabiao
later spoke enthusiastically about his trip, and
praised the civic action role of the Romanian army
in society. (CONFIDENTIAL)
June 17, 1975
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Hungary: Damping Expectations
tip y
Party leader Kadar made a strong effort in his
election speech last week to prepare the Hungarian
people for slower improvements in the standard of
living over the next several years.
Kadar frankly acknowledged that "capitalist
inflation and the rise in raw material and energy
prices" are causing difficult problems and called
for more efficient use of raw materials, equipment,
and work time. He also emphasized the need for
national unity and cooperation between Communists
and non-Communists.
He rejected "unrealistic" increases in consumer
income and projected annual real income growth at
3-3.5 percent "for the next few years." This
figure is about one percent below what Kadar had
projected in March. Final projections for the
Five Year Plan have apparently not yet been com-
pleted.
The party chief appeared to reject any cutback
on Western trade, despite Budapest's large trade
deficit with the West. He said Hungary carried on
one third of its foreign trade with the West
"necessarily," and "not as a matter of decision."
In an apparent slap at the Soviets, Kadar failed
to give the ritualistic bow to economic aid from
Moscow. At the party congress in March--with
Brezhnev attending--he had explicitly thanked the
USSR and Brezhnev for helping Budapest solve its raw
material and energy supply problems. The omission
may well be the result of the earlier-than-planned
price increases for Soviet raw materials imposed by
Moscow, which has compounded Hungary's economic prob-
lems. (CONFIDENTIAL)
June 17, 1975
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Bumper Grain Crop Likely
in Eastern Europe
We estimate that grain production in Eastern
Europe--excluding Yugoslavia--will reach 81 mil-
lion tons this year, compared with 75 million tons
in 1974 if favorable weather conditions prevail
during the remainder of the growing season and
harvest. Grain imports, mostly for feed, will
reach 8 million tons in fiscal 1976, only 5 percent
less than the previous year.
The southern countries of Bulgaria, Hungary,
and Romania--the major grain exporting region--will
account for the jump in output. Spring rains re-
lieved drought conditions in Bulgaria and Romania.
The soil moisture level is still low in Bulgaria,
and normal summer rainfall is needed to push crop
yields to near the 1972 record level.
On a visit to Bulgaria in late May, Under
Secretary of Agriculture Campbell observed that the
important winter wheat crop was in excellent con-
dition, but that the corn was either planted late
or stunted by cool weather. Although crop conditions
are good in Romania, it is unlikely that this year's
ambitious harvest target--20 million tons--will be
met. On about the same amount of land, Romania
produced a record 17 million tons of grain in 1972.
Crop conditions are also good in Hungary, and
we expect that wheat and corn production will match
last year's output with a reduction in acreage offset
by higher yields. Output of barley and. other grains
will increase.
Grain production in the northern countries--
Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and Poland--will ap-
proach last year's record. Last fall's sowing was
June 17, 1975
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interrupted by heavy rains and as much as 500,000
to 600,000 hectares normally sown with winter wheat
had to be sown with lower yielding spring grains.
Only East Germany fulfilled its fall sowing plan.
April rains slowed spring planting in Czecho-
slovakia, but no major problems were reported by East
Germany or Poland. To boost production levels in
the north and reduce expensive grain imports, meadows,
pastures and other marginal land were sown with spring
grains, mainly barley. East Germany will harvest its
second bumper crop in a row, almost 10 million tons.
We expect that the harvest in Czechoslovakia and
Poland will fall below last year's level.
The southern countries will export most of their
increased output, and the remainder will be used to
replenish drought-depleted stocks. Almost all of the
8 million tons of grain that will be imported will go
to the northern countries. The main sources of supply
will be the Soviet Union and the US. (CONFIDENTIAL)
June 17, 1975
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