MIDDLE EAST AFRICA SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00865A000800220001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 21, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 24, 1975
• Content Type: NOTES

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Secret
No Foreign Dissem
HZ
r
Middle East
Africa
South Asia
Secret
135
No. 0660/75
April 24, 1975
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No Foreign Dissem/No Dissem Abroad
Background Use Only/ControZZed Dissem
Warning Notice
Sensitive Intelligence Sources and Methods Involved
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Classified by 005827
Exempt from general declassification schedule
of E. 0. 11652, exemption category:
g 5B (1), (2), and (3)
Automatically declassified
on: Date Impossible to Determine
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MIDDLE EAST - AFRICA - SOUTH ASIA
This publication is prepared for regional specialists in the Washington com-
munity by the Middle East - Africa Division, Office of Current Intelligence,
with occasional contributions from other offices within the Directorate of
Intelligence. Comments and queries are welcome. They should be directed to
the authors of the individual articles.
Libya-Egypt: Both Sides May be Trying to
Manipulate Border Tribes . . . . . . . . . 1
Iran: The New Party . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Middle East: PLO Seeks Observer Status
at UNESCO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Jordan: Construction of a Large Yarmuk River
Dam Under Consideration . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Apr 24, 1975
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Libya-Egypt
Both Sides May be Trying to
Manipulate Border Tribes
The dispute between Libya and Egypt that flared
up last week has involved charges from both sides
that the other is subverting the loyalties of tribal
groups that live astride their common border. The
charges are not new and, in fact, have arisen on
almost every occasion of intense feuding between the
neighboring countries. We have no evidence that
border tribes have engaged in subversive activity
against either Tripoli or Cairo; nevertheless, both
regimes apparently believe a potential danger exists
and may be moving to gain the advantage.
The tribes in question are collectively known
as the Saadi. Their current allegiance is complicated
by the historical misfortunes of their original home-
land of Cyrenaica, the eastern province of present-
day Libya. Many of the Saadi tribes were driven
from Cyrenaica into Egypt during the early nineteenth
century by the Turkish Caramanli Pasha of Tripoli.
After years of resistance to Egyptian authority, many
of the tribes were finally forced to give up their
nomadic lifestyle for a sedentary existence, some
settling as far east as the Egyptian delta region.
By rough estimates nearly a million descendants of
Saadi tribesmen in Egypt still identify with their
original homeland, but only about 100,000 of these
maintain close ties with their Cyrenaican cousins.
Tripoli and Cairo seem most concerned about the
Awlad Ali, a tribe located primarily in the Egyptian
Western Desert in an area stretching between Sollum
and Alexandria. The Awlad Ali have maintained rela-
tively strong tribal cohesion and apparently roam
freely across the Libyan border to areas inhabited
by a smaller Libyan branch of the tribe.
The Awlad Ali and other Saadi tribes with
Cyrenaican origins have clung to nomadic traditions
and probably have little sense of political association
(Continued)
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with either Libya or Egypt. Cyrenaicans have
historically felt a keen sense of independence,
marked by long-standing antipathy for Egyptians
and more recently characterized by bitter antagonism
toward the Tripoli-based Libyan government. These
negative sentiments--if successfully manipulated--
could be dangerous liabilities or useful assets to
Cairo or Libya, and both capitals have stakes in
bidding for tribal support.
Until recently, this competition seemed to
involve little more than propaganda posturing, but
over the last month both sides reportedly have taken
more serious action.
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Iran
The New Party
The Iranian National Resurgence Party (NRP),
which is to be Iran's sole political party, will
soon be operating. The establishment of. the NRP
began last month after the Shah declaredwithout
warning that Iran was to have only one political
party. All other parties were dissolved and their
newspapers closed. The Shah made clear. that all who
wished to participate in the country's economic
progress and political process would have to join
the new organization; those who did not would be
regarded as enemies of the regime.
The NRP will hold its first congress early next
month. Major occupational groups, such as teachers
and farmers, and geographic regions will be represent-
ed. According to the Shah's orders, however, only 10
of Iran's 60 senators and 40 of its 268 parliamentary
deputies will be among the delegates.
The limits on the participation of politicians
reflects the Shah's reported desire to bring new
faces--especially intellectuals and younger techno-
crats--into national politics and his intention to
prevent the new party from becoming a mirror image
of the old ruling party, the Iran Novin party.
Although the Shah designated Prime Minister Hoveyda,
who served as head of the former ruling party, to
lead the NRP, the Shah is reportedly displeased with
Hoveyda for trying to move Iran Novin party hacks
into top NRP jobs. A special high-level group has
reportedly met at the Shah's direction to ensure that
new men are not passed over. Represented in the group
are members of Iran's university community, and a "re-
habilitated" student critic and alleged former com-
munist, who is now a leader of the younger elements
in the new party.
(Continued)
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University leaders and intellectuals also have
been encouraged by Empress Farah. to play a greater
role in Iranian politics. Her recent speech recom-
mending that they become more active was given front
page press treatment.
Iran's university community and Iranian students
abroad have traditionally been a major source of anti-
regime activity and fertile ground for recruitment
into dissident, and even terrorist, organizations.
.The Shah seems increasingly irritated by opposition
or indifference from these people. In response,
he.now seems deliberately to be enlarging
their role in the new party in an attempt to co-opt
them into the system or to forcethem into such open
opposition that he may brand them traitors.
The Shah in the past has frequently and success-
fully used the tactic of co-opting opponents. Tradi-
tionally, he has been reluctant to suppress forcefully
centers of opposition before they have been given
several opportunities to "reform".
Nevertheless, the threat of more forceful action
remains. The Shah's remarks about.joining the new
party "or else"--and . even some of the Empress' re-
cent remarks--read like warnings that the time to
choose is at hand. His speech establishing the party
rather clearly defined the limits of allowable criti-
cism. Debate over means apparently will be encouraged,
but criticism of the monarchy, the constitution, or
the domestic goals set forth by the Shah in his "White
Revolution" will not be permitted. (SECRET/NFD/NDA/CD)
Apr 24, 1975 4
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Middle East
The Palestine Liberation Organization is seeking
permanent observer status at the Paris-based UN Educa-
tional, Scientific and Cultural Organization as a
means of further expanding its international representa-
tion and acceptability. The PLO and its supporters are
lobbying for support to raise the issue directly at
the May meeting of the organization's executive board.
A direct request by the PLO last March-for such status
was refused by UNESCO's director general, but he has no
legal authority to prevent board action on the request.
The question of the PLO's status can be added as
a new item to the meeting's agenda by a simple majority
vote. Beyond that point, however, the executive board's
authority to-grant such status--without-the approval of
UNESCO's general conference--is unclear. UNESCO has
formerly permitted only non-member states--such as the
Holy See--and intergovernmental organizations to appoint
permanent observer delegates; no national liberation
movement has ever applied for such standing.
The PLO and their front men in Paris, the Tunisian
delegates, may be encountering more opposition to their
proposal than they had expected. The black Africans, in
particular, are concerned that introduction of this issue,
coming so soon after the controversy aroused by the
actions taken against Israel at the November meeting,
could further damage the organization, which, for the
first time in its history, is headed by an African.
(SECRET/NO FOREIGN DISSEM/BACKGROUND USE,ONLY)
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Jordan
Construction of a Large Yarmuk River Dam
Under Consideration
Since the early 1950's Jordan has been interested
in harnessing the waters of the Yarmuk River, a
great portion of which runs unused into the Jordan
River south of Lake Tiberias. The first step toward
controlling the Yarmuk was taken in 1966 when Jordan
began construction of the Khalid bin al Walid Dam
near the town of Al Mukaybah. Construction was
halted by the 1967 war, when Israel occupied the
Golan Heights side of the river. In spite of
Jordanian hopes, no agreement has been reached with
Israel that would permit construction on the dam to
resume. There are indications that Jordan is
abandoning hopes of resuming work on the Khalid Dam
and is thinking of building at a site upriver that
is about 7 miles east of Israeli occupied territory.
The new site is at the Maqarin railway station
some 14 miles upstream from the Khalid site. This
site was first proposed by two US engineering
companies in a 1955 study of the Yarmuk-Jordan River
Basin.
Early last month, the Jordanian government asked
the International Bank for Reconstruction and Develop-
ment (IBRD) and AID to consider financing the con-
struction of the Maqarin Dam. Jordanian specialists
have completed a review of previous studies on the
site, and IBRD and AID are conducting negotiations
for a feasibility study. IBRD is apparently con-
sidering committing funds for construction beginning
in fiscal year 1977.
The Maqarin Dam will be an earth and rockfill
multipurpose structure furnishing water for year-
round irrigation in the Jordan Valley and hydro-
electric power for Jordan and Syria. The Jordanians
are anxious to complete their plans for development
(Continued)
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in the Jordan Valley, but they cannot do it without
a large dam on the Yarmuk River. The loss of the
Khalid Dam was a disappointment to them, and they
can be expected to push hard for support to construct
the Maqarin Dam. (CONFIDENTIAL)
25X1A
.4.
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