POPULATION OF THE COUNTRIES OF THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC AND OF CUBA AND YUGOSLAVIA SELECTED YEARS, 1938-80

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• Document Release Date: December 1, 1998
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• Publication Date: April 1, 1963
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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
POPULATION OF THE COUNTRIES
OF THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
AND OF CUBA AND YUGOSLAVIA
SELECTED YEARS, 1938-80
EIC SR5-S3
April 1963
VAA _-,
vlE ?~:
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON POPULATION AND MANPOWER
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declassification
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WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
Printed and Disseminated by the
Central Intelligence Agency
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 Approved For Release 1999 0 ffi#ff PA7tS0110OA000100080006-6
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
POPULATION OF THE COUNTRIES
OF THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
AND OF CUBA AND YUGOSLAVIA
SELECTED YEARS, 1938-80
EIC SR5-S3
April 1963
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON POPULATION AND MANPOWER
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CONTENTS
Page
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Tables
1. Estimated and Projected Population of the Countries
of the Sino-Soviet Bloc on 1 January, Selected
Years, 1938-80 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2. Estimated and Projected Population of the Countries
of the Sino-Soviet Bloc on 1 July, Selected Years,
1938-8o . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3. Estimated and Projected Population of Cuba, Yugo-
slavia, and the Sino-Soviet Bloc on 1 January,
Selected Years, 1938-80 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1. Estimated and Projected Population of Cuba, Yugo-
slavia, and the Sino-Soviet Bloc on 1 July,
Selected Years, 1938-80 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Appendix
Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
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POPULATION OF THE COUNTRIES
OF THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC AND OF CUBA AND YUGOSLAVIA
SELECTED YEARS, 1938-8o
Introduction
This report presents estimates and projections of the populations
of the countries of the Sino-Soviet Bloc and of Cuba and Yugoslavia,
for selected years, 1938-80. These estimates and projections, which
supersede those published in EIC-SR5-S2, April 1962, CONFIDENTIAL, are
basic statistics of the intelligence community as established formally
through the Subcommittee on Population and. Manpower of the Economic
Intelligence Committee (EIC). The members of the Subcommittee include
representatives of the Department of Commerce, the Department of
Defense, the Department of Labor, the Department of State, and the
Central Intelligence Agency. The respective member agencies, in some
areas, may have different statistics to meet individual requirements,
but these differences do not affect the validity of these community-
established statistics for general usage.
Estimates and projections of the total population in each country
for selected years, 1938-80, are shown in Tables 1 through 4. The
estimates for the USSR, the European Satellites, and Yugoslavia are
considered to be more reliable than those for the Asian Communist coun-
tries and Cuba. For the USSR, the European Satellites, and Yugoslavia,
the estimates either were obtained directly from censuses, yearbooks, and
statistical journals of the countries concerned and from publications
of the United Nations or were derived from these materials. For the
Asian countries and Cuba, only fragmentary data are available, and the
methods by which estimates for these countries were made are discussed
in the Appendix. The population projections are based on assumptions
that are stated in the Appendix.
The over-all. classification of this report is CONFIDENTIAL, but the
tables themselves are UNCLASSIFIED.
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ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATION OF THE COUNTRIES OF THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC ON 1 JANUARY a1. *
SELECTED YEARS, 1938-80
PREWAR
BOUNDARIES PRESENT BOUNDARIES
COUNTRY 1938
TOTAL S I N O -SOVIET BLOC 775
USSR 166.7
EUROPEAN SATELLITES 111.6
ALBANIA 1.0
BULGARIA 6.2
CZECHOSLOVAKIA 15.3
EAST GERMANY 25.9
HUNGARY 9.1
POLAND 34.5
RUMANIA 19.6
1938
1945 J
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
782
799
837
850
865
882
899
917
936
956
189.7
176.0
180.3
183.1
186.1
189.2
192.1
195.3
198.6
201.8
94.9
90.1
89.2
90.2
91.0
92.0
92.8
93.9
94.8
95.4
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
6.6
6.9
7.2
7.3
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.5
7.6
14.4
14.2
12.3
12.5
12.6
12.8
12.9
13.0
13.2
13.3
16.5
17.9
18.4
18.4
18.4
18.3
18.1
18.0
17.8
17.6
9.1
9.3
9.3
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.7
9.8
9.9
9.8
31.8
25.0
24.6
25.0
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0
27.5
28.0
15.5
15.7
16.2
16.4
16.5
16.7
16.9
17.2
17.5
17.7
COMMUNIST CHINA
474
474
508
542
552
564
576
589
603
618
633
NORTH KOREA
8.8
8.8
9.2
9.6
8.8
8.5
8.4
8.5
8.8
9.1
9.5
NORTH VIETNAM
13.6
13.6
14.6
14.6
14.8
15.0
15.2
15.4
14.9
14.9
15.1
MONGOLIA
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
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ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATION OF THE COUNTRIES OF THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC ON 1 JANUARY J
SELECTED YEARS, 1938-80
(CONTINUED)
COUNTRY
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1970
1975
1980
TOTAL SINO-SOVIET BLOC
977
998
1,017
1,033
1,049
1,064
1,079
1,095
1,173
1,259
1,353
USSR
205.2
208.7
212.2
215.8
219.3
222.6
225.7
228.7
242.8
258.0
275.9
EUROPEAN SATELLITES
96.2
97.1
98.0
98.7
99.4
100.2
101.0
101.8
105.8
110.2
115.6
ALBANIA
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.2
2.6
3.1
BULGARIA
7.7
7.8
7.8
7.9
8.0
8.1
8.1
8.2
8.6
8.9
9.3
CZECHOSLOVAKIA
13.4
13.6
13.6
13.7
13.8
13.9
14.0
14.1
14.5
15.1
15.7
EAST GERMANY
17.4
17.3
17.3
17.2
17.1
17.1
17.2
17.3
17.5
17.7
17.9
HUNGARY
9.9
9.9
10.0
10.0
10.1
10.1
10.1
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.5
POLAND
28.4
28.9
29.4
29.8
30.1
30.5
30.9
31.2
33.1
35.3
38.0
RUMANIA
17.9
18.1
18.3
18.5
18.6
18.8
18.9
19.0
19.7
20.3
21.1
ASIAN COMMUNIST COUNTRIES J
675
692
707
719
730
741
752
764
825
890
961
COMMUNIST CHINA
649
665
679
691
701
712
722
733
790
851
917
NORTH KOREA
9.8
10.1
10.4
10.8
11.1
11.5
11.8
12.1
13.9
16.0
18.3
NORTH VIETNAM
15.3
15.6
15.9
16.2
16.4
16.8
17.1
17.5
19.6
21.9
24.5
MONGOLIA
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.6
TOTAL SINO-SOVIET
BLOC
977
998
1,017
1,033
1,049
1,064
1,079
1,095
1,173
1,259
1,353
A. FOR METHODOLOGY, SEE THE APPENDIX. BECAUSE OF ROUNDING, COMPONENTS MAY NOT ADD TO THE TOTALS SHOWN.
5. FOR 1945, ESTIMATES OF THE POPULATION OF THE USSR AND THE EUROPEAN SATELLITES FOR 1 JANUARY ARE THE SAME AS THOSE FOR 1 JULY.
C. ESTIMATES OF THE POPULATION OF THE ASIAN COMMUNIST COUNTRIES ARE BELIEVED TO BE LESS RELIABLE THAN THOSE OF OTHER BLOC COUNTRIES.
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ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATION OF THE COUNTRIES OF THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC ON 1 JULY A/*
SELECTED YEARS, 1938-80
PREWAR
BOUNDARIES PRESENT BOUNDARIES
COUNTRY 1938
TOTAL S I N O -SOVIET BLOC 780
USSR 168.5
EUROPEAN SATELLITES 112.3
ALBANIA 1.0
BULGARIA 6.2
CZECHOSLOVAKIA 15.3
EAST GERMANY 26.1
HUNGARY 9.2
POLAND 34.7
RUMANIA 19.8
1938
1945 J
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
786
800
843
858
873
890
908
926
946
967
191.7
176.0
181.7
184.6
187.6
190.6
193.7
196.9
200.2
203.5
95.5
90.1
89.7
90.6
91.4
92.2
93.2
94.2
95.2
96.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
6.7
6.9
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.7
14.5
14.2
12.4
12.5
12.7
12.8
13.0
13.1
13.3
13.4
16.6
17.9
18.4
18.4
18.3
18.2
18.1
17.9
17.7
17.5
9.2
9.3
9.3
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.7
9.8
9.9
9.9
31.9
25.0
24.8
25.3
25.7
26.2
26.7
27.2
27.7
28.2
15.6
15.7
16.3
16.5
16.6
16.8
17.0
17.3
17.6
17.8
COMMUNIST CHINA
476
476
510
547
558
570
583
596
611
626
641
NORTH KOREA
8.9
8.9
9.2
9.2
8.7
8.4
8.4
8.6
8.9
9.3
9.6
NORTH VIETNAM
13.7
13.7
14.2
14.7
14.9
15.1
15.3
15.2
14.9
15.0
15.2
MONGOLIA
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
TOTAL S I N O -SOVIET
BLOC
780
786
800
843
858
873
890
908
926
946
967
FOOTNOTES FOR TABLE 2 FOLLOW ON P. 9.
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ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATION OF THE COUNTRIES OF THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC ON 1 JULY J
SELECTED YEARS, 1938-80
(CONTINUED)
TOTAL SINO-SOVIET BLOC
987
1,008
1,025
1,041
1,056
1,071
1,087
1,102
1,181
1,268
1,363
USSR
206.9
210.4
214.0
217.6
220.9
224.1
227.2
230.1
244.2
259.6
278.1
EUROPEAN SATELLITES
96.8
97.6
98.4
99.0
99.8
100.6
101.3
102.1
106.1
110.8
116.2
ALBANIA
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.2
2.6
3.2
BULGARIA
7.7
7.8
7.9
7.9
8.0
8.1
8.2
8.2
8.6
9.0
9.3
CZECHOSLOVAKIA
13.5
13.6
13.7
13.8
13.9
13.9
14.0
14.1
14.6
15.2
15.8
EAST GERMANY
17.4
17.3
17.2
17.1
17.1
17.2
17.2
17.3
17.5
17.7
18.0
HUNGARY
9.9
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.1
10.1
10.1
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.5
POLAND
28.7
29.1
29.6
29.9
30.3
30.7
31.0
31.4
33.3
35.6
38.3
RUMANIA
18.1
18.2
18.4
18.6
18.7
18.8
19.0
19.1
19.7
20.4
21.1
ASIAN COMMUNIST COUNTRIES 1
684
700
713
724
735
747
758
770
831
897
969
COMMUNIST CHINA
657
673
685
696
706
717
728
739
796
857
924
NORTH KOREA
9.9
10.3
10.6
11.0
11.3
11.6
12.0
12.3
14.1
16.2
18.6
NORTH VIETNAM
15.4
15.7
16.0
16.3
16.6
16.9
17.3
17.7
19.8
22.2
24.8
MONGOLIA
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.7
TOTAL SINO-SOVIET BLOC
987
1,008
1,025
1,041
1,056
1,071
1,087
1,102
1,181
1,268
1,363
A. FOR METHODOLOGY, SEE THE APPENDIX. BECAUSE OF ROUNDING, COMPONENTS MAY NOT ADD TO THE TOTALS SHOWN.
B. FOR 1945, ESTIMATES OF THE POPULATION OF THE USSR AND THE EUROPEAN SATELLITES FOR 1 JULY ARE THE SAME AS THOSE FOR 1 JANUARY.
C. ESTIMATES OF THE POPULATION OF THE ASIAN COMMUNIST COUNTRIES ARE BELIEVED TO BE LESS RELIABLE THAN THOSE OF OTHER BLOC COUNTRIES.
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ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATION OF CUBA, YUGOSLAVIA, AND THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC ON I JANUARY AA
SELECTED YEARS, 1938-80
PREWAR
BOUNDARIES PRESENT BOUNDARIES
TOTAL CUBA, YUGOSLAVIA,
AND THE S I N O -SOVIET BLOC 795 802 819 859 872 888 905 922 941 960 980
EUROPEAN SATELLITES
AND YUGOSLAVIA 126.9 110.7 105.4 105.4 106.7 107.7 108.9 110.0 111.3 112.4 113.2
YUGOSLAVIA 15.3 15.8 15.3 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8
CUBA 4.4 4.4 5.0 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.3
TOTAL CUBA, YUGOSLAVIA,
AND THE S I N O -SOVIET BLOC 795 802 819 859 872 888 905 922 941 960 980
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ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATION OF CUBA, YUGOSLAVIA, AND THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC ON 1 JANUARY A,
SELECTED YEARS, 1938-80
(CONTINUED)
TOTAL CUBA, YUGOSLAVIA,
AND THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC 1,001 1,023 1,042 1,058 1,074 1,090 1,105 1,121 1,202 1,289 1,386
EUROPEAN SATELLITES
AND YUGOSLAVIA 114.1 115.2 116.3 117.2 118.1 119.2 120.2 121.2 126.4 132.2 139.0
YUGOSLAVIA 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.4 20.6 22.0 23.4
CUBA 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.7 8.5 9.4
TOTAL CUBA, YUGOSLAVIA,
AND THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC 1,001 1,023 1,042 1,058 1,074 1,090 1,105 1,121 1,202 1,289 1,386
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ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATION OF CUBA, YUGOSLAVIA, AND THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC ON 1 JULY J*
SELECTED YEARS, 1938-80
PREWAR
BOUNDARIES PRESENT BOUNDARIES
TOTAL CUBA, YUGOSLAVIA,
AND THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC 800
806
820
865
880
896
913
931
950
970
991
EUROPEAN SATELLITES
AND YUGOSLAVIA 127.7
111.4
105.4
106,0
107.2
108.2
109.2
110,5
111 .7
112.9
113.9
YUGOSLAVIA 15.4
15.9
15.3
16.3
16.6
16.8
17.0
17.3
17.5
17.7
17.9
CUBA 4.4
4.4
5.0
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.3
6.4
TOTAL CUBA, YUGOSLAVIA,
AND THE S I N O -SOVIET BLOC 800 806 820 865 880 896 913 931 950 970 991
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ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATION OF CUBA, YUGOSLAVIA, AND THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC ON 1 JULY Al
SELECTED YEARS, 1938-80
(CONTINUED)
TOTAL CUBA, YUGOSLAVIA,
AND THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC 1,012 1,033 1,050 1,066 1,082 1,097 1,113 1,129 1,210 1,298 1,396
EUROPEAN SATELLITES
AND YUGOSLAVIA 114.8 115.8 116.8 117.6 118.6 119.7 120,6 121.6 126.9 132.E 139.8
TOTAL CUBA, YUGOSLAVIA,
AND THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC 1,012 1,033 1,050 1,066 1,082 1,097 1,113 1,129 1,210 1,298 1,396
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METHODOLOGY
A. To Tables 1 and 2
The following notes give separately the sources, methods, and
assumptions on which are based the population estimates and projec-
tions for each country of the Sino-Soviet Bloc as shown in Tables 1
and 2. All relevant official data -- that is, data released by the
respective governments -- were considered and evaluated in making
these estimates. For the European Satellites the figures for 1938-62
(except for 1945, for which see below) are official estimates, official
estimates adjusted to 1 January and 1 July of each year, or official
estimates adjusted to accord with recent censuses.
For the USSR the estimates for 1950-62 are consistent with the
1959 census and with the official birth rates for those years for
which such rates are reported. They do not accord, however, with
official death rates nor with official pre- or post-census population
estimates because the official death rates by age originally reported
for 1958-59 imply too few deaths at the older ages and because official
population estimates appear to be inconsistent with the reported birth
and death rates. The figures shown for 1950-80 are the model 3 series
in James W. Brackett, "Demographic Trends and Population Policy in the
Soviet Union," Dimensions of Soviet Economic Power, Joint Economic
Committee, 87th Congress, Washington, 1962, p-7477-589. After these
figures were published, however, the summary volume of the 1959 Soviet
Census, containing life tables by single years of age and sex for the
USSR as a whole and for its urban and rural populations, was released.
These life tables should provide the basis of a more detailed analysis
of mortality than has previously been possible and will probably make
necessary the preparation of a new series of estimates and projections.
Thus the figures shown for the USSR should be considered as interim.
For the Asian Communist countries, official data are seldom avail-
able in sufficient quantity or detail to permit careful analysis, and
those which have been released often manifest unaccountable internal
inconsistencies. In the case of Communist China, for example, the pop-
ulation figures officially reported for 19+9-58 are inconsistent with
birth and death rates also reported for these years and with age and
sex data from the 1953 census. The estimates and. projections for China
shown in Tables 1 and 2 are based on the total population reported in
the 1953 census and on assumed rates of increase that are consistent
with China's demographic history. Official data for North Vietnam and
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North Korea are of even more uncertain reliability, and the background
information needed to evaluate and adjust the figures is not available.
An allowance of as much as a 10-percent error in the estimates for
these three countries would certainly not be excessive.
For the USSR and the European Satellites the estimates for 1945
are less reliable than those for other years because birth and death
rates for the war years and early postwar years have not been reported
and because reliable data on migration during these years are not
available.
1938, prewar boundaries: US Bureau of the Census, Population
Estimates and Projections for Selected Countries 1955 to 1959, Inter-
national Population Reports, SeriesP-91, No. , 21 October 1957.
1938, postwar boundaries: Based on a 1939 estimate of 190.7
million reported in Tsentral'noye Statisticheskoye Upravleniye pri
Sovete Ministrov SSSR, Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR v 1959 godu,
statisticheskiyyezhegodnik (The National Economy of the USSR in 1959,
a Statistical Yearbook), Moscow, 1960, p. 9. This figure is stated
to be as of 17 January 1939 and applies to the prewar territoryplus
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the territory gained from Rumania, and
the net territory gained from Poland. Presumably excluded is the
population in the territories which were acquired from Finland,
Germany, Czechoslovakia, Japan, and Mongolia. About 3 million persons
lived in these territories in 1939.
1945: Estimated.
1950-62: Figures shown are the model 3 estimates in James
W. Brackett, "Demographic Trends and Population Policy in the Soviet
Union," Dimensions of Soviet Economic Power, Joint Economic Committee,
87th Congress, Washington;, 1962. The numbers of -births are consistent
with the officially reported crude birth rates. Death rates by age
and sex were assumed to decline throughout the period. The life table
used as the basis for distributing deaths by age and sex is based on
the 1958-59 age-specific death rates for the USSR for -ages under 45
years and the 1958-59 age-specific death rates for the city of Kalinin
for ages 45 years and over. No allowance was made for migration. The
figures do not agree with the following official Soviet estimates:
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Date
Population
(Million Persons)
1 January 1960
212.3
1 July 1960
214+.4
1 January 1961
216.1
1 July 1961
213.0
1 January 1962
219.7
1 July 1962
221.5
1963-80: Ibid. model 3, series B projection based on the
assumptions that mortality will decline, that fertility will remain
at the 1961 level (gross reproduction rate = 130), and that there
will be no migration.
2. European Satellites
a. Albania
1938, 1945, and 1950-59: Drejtoria E. Statistikes, Anuari
Statistikor i R.P.Sh. 1960 (Statistical Yearbook for the Albanian
Peoples Republic, 1960), Tirana, 1960, p. 53.
1960-61: United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics,
January 1963.
1962-80: Projection based on the assumption that mortality
will decline, that fertility will remain constant at the 1955-61 level
(gross reproduction rate = 330), and that there will be no migration.
b. Bulgaria
1938, prewar boundaries; 19+5; and 1950-60: Tsentralno
Statistichesko Upravleniye pri Ministerskiya Suvet, Statisticheski
odishnik na Narodna Republika Bulgariya 1961 (Statistical Yearbook
for the Bulgarian Peoples Republic, 19 1 , Sofia, 1961, p. 18.
1938, postwar boundaries: US Bureau of the Census,
Population Estimates and Projections for Selected Countries 1955 to
1959, International Population Reports, Series P-91, No. , 21 October
1957.
1961-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mor-
tality will decline, that fertility will remain constant at the 1961
level (gross reproduction rate = 110), and that there will be no
migration.
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c. Czechoslovakia
1938, prewar boundaries: Publication No. 74 of the Social
Institute of the Czechoslovak Republic, Twenty Years of Social Welfare
in the Czechoslovak Republic (1933), P. 9-
1938, postwar boundaries; 1945; and 1950-59: Statni Urad
Statisticky, Statisticka rocenka Republiky Ceskoslovenske 1961
(Statistical Yearbook of the Czechoslovak-Republic, 1961), Prague,
1961, p. 78. The figures for 1950-60 have been adjusted to accord
with the results of the 1961 census.
1960-61: Based on Statni Urad Statisticky, Statisticka
rocenka Re ublik Ceskoslovenske 1962 (Statistical Yearbook of the
Czechoslovak Republic, 1962), Prague, 1962, p. 111.
1962-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mor-
tality will decline, that fertility will remain constant at the 1961
level (gross reproduction rate = 115), and that there will be no
migration.
d. East Germany
1938, prewar boundaries: This figure represents the popu-
lation of the present territory of East Germany plus the former German
Territory now under Polish and Soviet administration. The number,
shown solely for convenience, was derived by subtracting the 1938 pop-
ulation of the area that is now West Germany plus West Berlin from
the 1938 population of prewar Germany.
1938, postwar boundaries, and 1950-62: Staatliche
Zentralverwaltung fuer Statistik, Statistisches Jahrbuch der Deutschen
Demokratischen Republik, 1962 (Statistical Yearbook of the German
Democratic Republic, 1962), Berlin, 1962, pp. 32 and 36.
1945: Estimated on the basis of a population of 18,057,000
reported for midyear 1946 (ibid., p. 17), on reported births and deaths
in 1946, and on an adjustment for unrecorded migration from Poland.
1963-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mor-
tality will decline, that fertility will remain constant at the 1961
level (gross reproduction rate = 115), and that migration will be
negligible.
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e. Hungary
1938 and 1950-60: Kozponti Statisztikai Hivatal,
Ma arorsza nepesedese, 1959 (Hungarian Demography, 1959), Budapest,
1961, p. 21.
1945: US Bureau of the Census, The Population of Hungary,
by Jacob S. Siegel, International Population Statistics Reports, P-90,
No. 9, 1958, Table 6. The figure for 1945 is not an official figure
but was adjusted to account for postwar migrations more carefully than
do the official data.
1961-62: Kozponti Statisztikai Hivatal, Statisztikai havi
kozlemenyek (Monthly Statistical Bulletin), No. 11, 1962, p. 7.
1963-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mor-
tality will decline, that fertility will remain constant at the level
estimated for 1962 (gross reproduction rate = 85), and that there will
be no migration.
1938, prewar boundaries: United Nations, Monthly Bulletin
of Statistics, January 1958.
1938, postwar boundaries: Based on an officially reported
population of 32.1 million for 1 January 1939 and on a rate of natural
increase of 10.7 persons per 1,000 population reported for 1938.
1945: Estimated. It is not known precisely what popu-
lation movements occurred in Poland between 1945 and the date of the
census in February 1946. The population enumerated in 1946 was 23.9
million. The Statistical Yearbook of Poland, 1947 (pp. 28-30) gives
some data on the movement of population from the west into Poland and
between Poland and areas of the USSR. Data on the transfer of Germans
from Poland, on the other hand, begin only in 1946. If only the data
that are available are utilized, the estimate of Poland's midyear 1945
population would be approximately 23 million. This figure should be
adjusted, however, to account for the probable number of Germans who
left Poland between 1 July 1945 and February 1946 -- a number esti-
mated at about 2 million persons. The figure of 25.0 million used
here reflects that adjustment.
1950-60: Glowny Urzad Statystcyczny Polskiej Rzeczypospolitej
Ludowej, Rocznik statystyczny, 1960 (Statistical Yearbook, 1960), p. 13.
The figures for 1951-60 have been adjusted to accord with the results of
the 1961 census.
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1961-62: Glowny Urzad Statystyczny, Biuletyn statystyczny
(Statistical Bulletin), No. 10, 1962, p. 6.
1963-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mortality
will decline, that fertility will remain constant at the level estimated
for 1962 (gross reproduction rate = 130), and that there will be no
migration.
1938, prewar boundaries: Institutul Central de Statistica,
Communicari statistice (Statistical Reports), No. 18, 15 August 1947,
P. 7.
:L938, postwar boundaries; 1945; and 1950-61: Directia
Centrala de Statistica, Anuarul statistic al RPR,1962 (Statistical
Yearbook of the RPR, 196-27, Bucharest, 1962, p. tab.
1962-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mor-
tality will decline, that fertility will remain constant at the level
estimated for 1962 (gross reproduction rate = 100), and that there
will be no migration.
3. Asian Communist Countries
a. Communist China
1938, 1945, and 1950-58: Estimated, with the census of
30 June 1953 used as the base. Because of inconsistencies between
the officially announced population totals and officially announced
birth and death rates, the population estimates were based on the
following assumed average annual vital rates (per 1,000 population):
Period
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Rate
of Increase
1938-48
42.5
32.-5
10.0
L948-53
45.1
26.0
19.1
1953-58
43.8
19.7
24.1
It was assumed that the actual birth rate was 45.0 per 1,000 before
1948 but that infanticide lowered the effective birth rate to 42.5.
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1959-61: Projection based on the assumption that natural
increase fell to 15.0 per 1,000 population in 1961 as a result of
higher mortality caused by acute food shortages in many areas since
1958.
1962-80: Projection based on the assumptions that the
average annual increase rate will be 15.0 per 1,000 population and
that there will be no significant migration. The assumption as to
the increase rate is arbitrary and does not involve specific conclu-
sions about underlying demographic and economic developments during
this period.
b. North Korea
1938: Estimated. Based on the censuses of 1935 and 1940.
1945: Estimated. Interpolated between the figure of
9,170,000 from the census of 1 October 1944 and an official figure of
9,257,000 as of 1 January 1947 reported in Central Statistical Board,
Statistical Returns of the National Economy of the Democratic Peoples
Republic of Korea, Foreign Languages Publishing House, Pyongyang, 1961.
1950-61: Reported and estimated. Based on the following
official figures from the source given above:
1 January 1950
9,622,000
1 December 1953
8,491,000
1 September 1956
9,359,000
1 December 1959
10,392,000
1 January 1961
10,789,000
Interpolations between these figures allow for (1) substantial net out-
migration during the years 1949-53, sufficient to exceed the assumed
natural increase for these years, and (2) rising natural increase rates
and a net in-migration of from 25,000 to 150,000 persons for various
years, 1954-61.
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1962-80: Projection based on the assumptions (1) that a
rising trend of natural increase levels off at 27.5 per 1,000 popula-
tion by 1962 and will remain constant thereafter and (2) that migra-
tion ceases to be a significant factor after 1962. The assumption of
a constant rate of increase after 1962 is-arbitrary and does not in-
volve a commitment to specific future trends in demographic or eco-
nomic development.
c. North Vietnam
1938, 1945, and 1950-59: Estimated. Backward projection
from the 1960 census based on (1) the following schedule of assumed
rates of natural increase (per 1,000 population):
Period
1935-39
12.5
1940-44
15.0
1945-49
15.0
1950-54
12.5
1955-60
17.5
and on (2) an assumed loss of 1,500,000 persons during the famine of
1944-45, a military loss of about 200,000 males during 1939-54,a
net out-migration of 900,000 during 1954-55, and the execution of
100,000 landlords during 1955-56.
1960: Estimated on the 'basis of the census figure of
15,916,955 as of 1 March 1960.
1961-80: Projection based on the assumptions (1) that the
average annual rate of natural increase will rise from 17.5 per 1,000
population in 1960 to 22.5 per 1,000 population by 1965 and remain
constant at that level through 1980 and (2) that there will be no
migration. The assumption of a constant rate of increase after 1965
is arbitrary and does not involve a commitment to specific. future
trends in demographic or economic development.
d. Mongolia
1938, 1952-5-5, and 1957-60: Figures as of 1 January of
these years given in State Central Statistical Board, National Economy
of the Mongolian Peoples Reublic for 40 Years: Collection of Sta-
tistics, Ulan Bator, 1961, p.39.
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1945, and 1950-51: Estimated. Interpolated between the
census figure of 759,200 as of 15 October 1944 and the figures of
759,500 as of 1 January 1947 and 787,800 as of 1 January 1952, from
the source given above.
1956: Estimated. Interpolated between the figure of
831,000 as of 1 January 1955 and the census figure of 845,500 as of
5 February 1956, both from the source given above.
1961-63: Estimated. Interpolated between the figure of
936,900 as of 1 January 1960 and the preliminary census figure of
1,018,800 as of 5 January 1963 (the latter figure from Unen [Truth],
Ulan Bator, 20 January 1963).
1964-80: Projection based on the same average annual
increase rate as obtained by interpolation between the official figure
for 1 January 1960 and the census figure for 5 January 1963, or about
28 per 1,000 populattion. The assumption of a constant rate of popu-
lation increase is employed in view of the fact that available offi-
cial figures on total population and vital rates are not in agreement
and cannot be rationalized with the limited information published
thus far.
B. To Tables 3 and 4
1938, 1945, and 1950-58: United Nations, Demographic Year-
book, 1960, New York, 1960.
1959-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mortality
will remain constant, that fertility will remain constant (gross
reproduction rate = 200), and that migration will be negligible after
1962. Net out-migration for the period 1959-62 was assumed to be
75,000 annually.
The birth and death rates in the mid-1950's were estimated as
33 and 13 per 1,000 population, respectively (Consejo Nacional de
Economia, Estimados de la oblation de Cuba para Enero 28 de 1959
[Estimates of the Population of Cuba for January 28, 19591, Havana,
1959). A gross reproduction rate of 200 was established as consistent
with this birth rate. The age- and sex-specific mortality rates from
the Life Tables for Negroes in the US, 1939-41, established as con-
sistent with a death rate of 13 per 1,000 population, were assumed to
hold for Cuba.
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The assumption that emigration was 75,000 annually for the
period 1959-62 is based, in part, on information from the US Immigra-
tion and Naturalization Service that about 1,300 to 1,400 Cubans came
to the US each week. The number going to other countries is unknown.
Regular airline flights between Cuba and the US were stopped at the
time of the Cuban crisis and have not been resumed. Emigration from
Cuba since that time has been sporadic, according to the Immigration
and Naturalization Service.
2. Yugoslavia
1938, prewar, 1950-61: Savezni zavod za Statistiku, Statisticki
godisnjak Federativna Narodna Republika Jugoslavija 1962 (Statistical
Yearbook for the Federal Peoples Republic of Yugoslavia, 1962), Belgrade,
1962, p. 54.
1938, postwar: US Bureau of the Census, Population Estimates
and Projections for Selected Countries: 1960 to 19L1, International
Population Reports, Series P-91, No. 12, Washington, April, 1962.
1945: Estimated.
1962-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mortality
will decline, that fertility will remain constant at the level esti-
mated for 1962 (gross reproduction rate = 134), and that there will
be no migration.
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