OUTPUT OF REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS IN THE USSR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01093A001000130001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 148
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 7, 1999
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 8, 1956
• Content Type: IR

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2
PROVISIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT
OUTPUT OF REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
IN THE USSR
CIA/RR PR-135
8 March 1956
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
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WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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S-E-C-
PROVISIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT
OUTPUT OF REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS IN THE USSR
CIA/RR PR-135
(ORR Project 25.471)
The data and conclusions contained in this report
do not necessarily represent the final position of
.ORR and should be regarded as provisional only and
subject to revision. Comments and data which may
be available to the user are solicited.
Office of Research and Reports
mom
W I
'e, Jq Aft;
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FOREWORD
The purpose of this report is twofold: to develop a methodology
by which the output of each of the major petroleum products in the
USSR can be calculated and to apply that methodology to the available
relevant information in order to derive estimates of Soviet output of
petroleum products during the 19+6-54 period.
The methodology is designed to correlate all available information
pertinent to the output of petroleum products in the USSR: data on
the Soviet supply of crude oil, synthetic oils, and natural gas
liquids; official Soviet announcements of annual growth rates of the
output of specific petroleum products; and data on the demand for
petroleum products in the USSR.
Any evaluation of the estimates derived in this report must con-
sider the fact that the basic data used are subject to rather wide
ranges of error. In particular, current estimates of Soviet pro-
duction of crude oil, synthetic oils, and natural gas liquids and
current data on the demand for petroleum products in the USSR are
approximations and must be recognized as such. Although the estimates
developed in this report appear to correlate more closely with all
available relevant information on the subject than do any known
corresponding estimates, they are affected by the infirmities of the
basic data.
These infirmities are apparent throughout the report, particularly
in those areas where it has been necessary to derive estimates by the
use of technical analogues or judgment appraisals. The need for more
complete and accurate basic data is evident, and this report attempts
to focus attention on that need. The methodology developed in this
report will permit the derivation of firmer estimates as more factual
evidence becomes available.
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CONTENTS
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
I. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
A. Terminology and Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
B. Survey of the Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
II. Product Yields, 1927-37 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
III. Product Yields, 1938-45 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
,IV. Product Yields, 19+6-54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
V. Trends and Product-Yield Patterns . . . . . . . . . . 28
Appendixes
Appendix A. Supplementary Data on Petroleum Product Yields,
1927-46 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
1. Available Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
2. National Yields and Political Areas . . 38
3. Volume-to-Weight Conversion Factors . . . 39
Appendix B. Methodology for Derivation of Estimates of Soviet
Yields of Petroleum Products, 1946-54 . . . . . 63
1. General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
2. Available Parameters . . . . ... . . . . 63
3. Estimating Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
4. Calculation of Estimates of Postwar Product 84
Yields . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5. Outline of Numerical Calculations . . . . . 89
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Appendix C. World Status of the USSR in the Output of Petro-
leum Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
Appendix D. Gaps in Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
Appendix E. Source References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
1. Estimated Indigenous Gross Yields of Nongaseous Petroleum
Products in the USSR, by Type of Product, 1953 . . . . . 6
2. Reported Yields of Petroleum Products in the USSR, 1927-28,
1932, 1936, and 1937 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
3. 1941 State Plan for the Output of Petroleum Products
in the USSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
4. Link Relatives for Production of Petroleum Products
in the USSR, 1947-54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
5. Estimated Yields of Petroleum Products in the USSR,
by Type of Source, 1946-54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
6. Estimated Total Yields of Petroleum Products in the USSR,
1946-54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
7. Comparison of Estimates of Total Gross Yields of Petro-
leum Products in the USSR, 1937, 1938, and 1946 . . . . 29
8. Comparison of Petroleum Balances in the USSR and the US,
1932 and 1937 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
9. Comparison of Petroleum Balances in the USSR and the US,
1946 and 1953 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
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10. Reported Yields of Petroleum Products in the USSR, Fiscal
Years 1927-28 and 1928-29 and Calendar Years 1930-32 . .
40
11. Reported Yields of Petroleum Products in the USSR,
1933-37 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
43
12. Reported Yields of Petroleum Products in the USSR,
by Product, Fiscal Years 1927-28 and 1928-29 and
Calendar Years 1930-37 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
46
13. Correlation of Data on Output and Consumption of Petro-
leum Products Derived from Crude Oil Refining in the USSR,
Fiscal Year 1928-29 and Calendar Years 1929, 1930, 1932,
and 1935-37 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
49
14. Estimated Yields of Crude Oil Refining Products in the USSR,
Based on the Captured 1941 Soviet State Plan, 1939, 1941
Plan, and 1946 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
57
15. Estimated Production of Synthetic Petroleum Products from
Oil Shale in the Est6nian SSR, 1921-44 . . . . . . . . .
59
16. Volume-to-.Weight Conversion Factors for Nongaseous Petro-
leum Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
62
17. Estimated Consumption of Petroleum Products in the USSR,
1946-54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
65
18. Estimated Petroleum Trade Data for International Trade
in Crude Oil and Petroleum Products by the USSR,
19)4.6-5)-I- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
66
19. Estimated Yields of Petroleum Products Not of Crude Oil
Origin in the USSR, 1946-54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
68
20. Reported Losses and Fuel Oil Uses of Crude Oil in the USSR,
1935-37 and 1939-40 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
73
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21.
Estimated Balances of Crude Oil in the USSR, 1945-54 . .
99
22.
Estimated Balances of Gasoline in the USSR, 1945-54 . . .
101
23.
Estimated Balances of Ligroine in the USSR, 1945-54 . . .
103
24.
Estimated Balances of Kerosine Products in the USSR,
1945 - 54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
l04
25.
Estimated Balances of Diesel Fuel in the USSR, 1945-54
106
26.
Estimated Balances of Lubricants in the USSR, 1945-54 ?
108
27.
Estimated Balances of Petroleum Distillates and Lubricants
in the USSR, 1945-54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
110
28.
Estimated Balances of Residual and Other Petroleum Products
in the USSR, l 45-54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
112
29.
Estimated Balances of Total Nongaseous Petroleum Products
in the USSR, 1945-54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
114
30.
Estimated Balances of Nongaseous Petroleum in the USSR,
1945-54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
116
31.
Estimated Annual Yields of Products from Crude Oil
Refining in the USSR, 1946-50 . . . . . . . . . . . . .
118
32.
Yields of Petroleum Products in Western Europe, Selected
Years, 1938-53 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
120
33. Installed Annual Crude Oil Refining Capacities in the
Free World and the Sino-Soviet Bloc, 1953 . . . . . . . 121
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Charts
Following Page
Figure 1. 'Product Yield Pattern in Soviet Crude Oil
Refining, 1930-54 (Gross Product Yield
Percentage Trend Lines) . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Figure 2. Product Yield Pattern in US Crude Oil Refining,
1930-54 (Gross Product Yield Percentage Trend
Lines) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
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CIA/RR PR-135 S-E-C-R-E-T
(ORR Project 25.471)
OUTPUT OF REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS IN THE USSR*
Summary
The annual output of refined petroleum products** in the USSR
during the postwar period increased from 19 million metric tons*** in
1946**** to about 50 million tons in 1954. The Soviet output in 1953
is estimated to have been 45.7 million tons, equal to about 13 percent
of the 1953 US output of 347 million tons. The prewar annual output
in the USSR ranged from 8.5 million tons in fiscal year 1927-28 to 24.5
million tons in 1937. Available information on the 1938-45 period is
inadequate to provide realistic estimates of output during those years.
There has been a significant change in the postwar pattern of
petroleum product yields in the USSR. This change is shown below in
the tabulation, which gives product yields for 1946 and 1954 by prin-
cipal product categories. The kerosine category includes both
kerosine and equivalent end-use products. Ligroine is a special
Soviet tractor fuel, the production of which as a separate product
probably was discontinued in 1954.
Annual Yield
(Million Metric Tons)
Ratio
Type of Product
1946
1954
of 1954 Yield
to 1946 Yield
Gasoline and ligroine
3.4
10.1
3.0
Kerosine
4.9
12.0
2.4
Diesel fuel
0.7
10.0
14.3
Lubricants
1.2
3.0
2.5
Residuals and other
8.8
14.6
1.7
19.0
49.7
2.6
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent the
best judgment of ORR as of 1 January 1956.
** For the purposes of this report, a petroleum product is one consumed
or prepared for consumption as an end product, as distinguished from
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This postwar pattern change is chiefly a reflection of the product
percentage yields* derived from the refining of crude oil. In the
USSR and the US alike, petroleum product yields are, for the most part,
derived by that process. The significance of the change in the Soviet
yield pattern is indicated by a comparison of the estimated Soviet
percentage yields with those of the US. This comparison is shown
below in tabular form. In the USSR the gas oil products are diesel
fuels only; in the US the gas oil products consist of distillate fuel
oil and lesser quantities of diesel fuel. Ligroine has not been
derived as a product in the US.
Yields as Percentages
of Crude Oil Refining Charge
Type of Product
946
1953 1954
191+6
1953
Gasoline and ligroine
16.2
18.1 16.7
34.3
38.8
Kerosine and gas oil products
27.0
35.5 39.3
22.3
25.6
Lubricants
6.1
6.1 6.1
2.8
2.2
Total principal distillates
.and lubricants
49.3
59.7 62.1
59.4
66.6
41.7
30.1 27.7
31..6
27.0
o
89.8 89.8
vmff~
0
9
a raw source material from which other petroleum stocks are derived.
Although the product is usually refined (processed) it is sometimes
unrefined and may be semirefined. A petroleum stock is said to be
crude if it has not been subjected to refining, and it is sometimes
said to be crude even though it has been refined, if it serves as a
raw source material for derivation of other petroleum stock.
Tonnages are given in metric tons throughout this report.
The annual operations are those which occurred in calendar-year
periods, except for the fiscal operations in the USSR before 1930.
* In this report, all percentages are given on a weight basis and,
unless otherwise noted, are given as annual averages.
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As of 1954, Soviet crude oil refining percentage yields of the
principal distillates plus lubricants appear to be approaching those
of the US. Within that category, however, the Soviet percentage
yields indicate definite emphasis on the intermediate distillates
(kerosine and diesel fuel). This emphasis reflects not only the
priority position given diesel fuel in the USSR during the postwar
period but also the growth in the production of jet fuels, which
are included in the kerosine yields. In the US, of course, gasoline
has always been the priority petroleum product. As the Soviet per-
centage yields of the intermediate distillates have increased, there
has been a decrease in the percentage yields of residuals and other
products. In that category, too, the Soviet yields are now approaching
US levels.
Estimates of the output of refined petroleum products in the USSR
during the 1946-54 period do not provide a base for significant con-
clusions about Soviet capabilities, vulnerabilities, and intentions.
What these estimates reveal about the over-all petroleum economy of
the USSR seems to indicate that the Soviet petroleum industry is
geared to meet the demands of the current cold-war period.
I. Introduction.
A. Terminology and Technology.
Petroleum product yields in the USSR are primarily developed
as indigenous gross yields of nongaseous products. The generalized
terms petroleum products and product yields are used in this report
to imply certain qualifications which are fundamental in any
statistical analysis of petroleum product yields.
With reference to the physical state of the product as
ordinarily handled, natural gas and residue process gas are the only
significant gaseous petroleum products within the broad intelligence
meaning. J* Natural gas, a stock** of major commercial importance,
For serially numbered source references, see Appendix E.
The term stock is applied in this report in the generalized
meaning of material and does not refer to inventories.
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is not considered in this report. Residue process gas is generally
burned as fuel gas in the processing plant within which the gas is
produced. Residue process gas is chiefly represented by crude oil
refinery still gas 2/ in the USSR, and refinery still gas is
generally shown in this report as an unspecified portion of "refinery
gas and loss" in the refinery balances.
For the purpose of this report the generalized term petroleum
rop duct includes not only the extremely important liquid petroleum
fuels and lubricating oils of common occurrence but also the relatively
smaller quantities of other liquid products (solvent distillates and
specialty tars, for instance) and relatively smaller quantities of
solid products such as petroleum coke, petroleum wax, asphalt, and
lubricating greases.
The product yields are indigenous in that they are all derived
from crude source stocks (natural and synthetic) by processing
operations within Soviet plants. The product yields are gross; they
are the totals which include all of the stocks finally involved in
the ultimate dispositions, as follows: (1) relatively minor quantities
of nongaseous products consumed in the product processing operations;
(2) relatively minor quantities of material loss and waste in handling
and storage, comprising "distribution losses" in the stock balances of
the report; and (3) the remaining stocks finally available for exports,
storage reserves, and useful indigenous consumption external to the
processing of the product.
Net product yields are the gross yields less the nongaseous
products consumed in product processing. In the USSR the principal
consumption of this kind is represented by residual fuel oil burned in
the crude oil refineries. In the Soviet crude oil refineries the prin-
cipal fuel consumption probably is of refinery still gas, residual fuel
oil, and natural gas. Also burned to furnish the necessary energy
input for these refineries -- chiefly as additional fuels fired in the
refinery boiler and power plants -- there may be smaller quantities of
other petroleum fuels such as petroleum coke and of nonpetroleum fuels
such as coal and lignite.
Net availability product yields are the net product yields less
the distribution losses. This net availability is important because
it includes the potential for the end-use consumption external to the
product processing.
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Indigenous gross yields represent the actual achievements in
production. Net yields and net availability yields depend on practices
in processing and distribution. Indigenous gross yields comprise
the petroleum product yields reported in the national annual statistics
of the US, of most other Free World countries, and in the prewar
period -- of the USSR. It is almost certain that indigenous gross
yields are compared in the annual Soviet product-yield ratios, which are
officially reported in the postwar period. These reported ratios con-
stitute the principal Soviet source data now available for checking
the estimates of postwar yields.
Natural petroleum J has furnished the principal source stocks
from which petroleum products were derived in Soviet processing plants.
During the postwar period in the USSR, however, relatively small
quantities of the nongaseous products have been derived from synthetic
petroleum. J These so-called synthetic oil products / probably will
have a more important status in the future. Historically, in the USSR
as elsewhere, crude oil (that is, natural crude oil as distinguished
from synthetic crude oil) Y/ has been and continues to be the principal
natural petroleum crude source stock. In the US and certain other
Free World countries, nevertheless, considerable and increasing
quantities of the nongaseous products are derived as natural gas
liquids extracted from wet crude natural gas. ? Prewar official
statistics of the USSR record yields of the natural gasoline type 2/
of natural gas liquids. At present it is unwarranted to ignore the
increasing postwar potential for the yield of natural gas liquids in
the USSR. 10
Estimated yields of nongaseous petroleum products in the USSR,
by type of product, in 1953 are shown in Table l.*
B. Survey of the Problem.
The primary objective of this report is to develop a material
balance technique for estimating the postwar yields of petroleum
products in the USSR. The estimated yields and the methodology are
subject to special qualifications as outlined below.**
Table 1 follows on p. 6.
Sections IV and V provide a more complete summary of these features.
The present introductory discussion is directed toward a preliminary
analysis of the intelligence significance, and for this purpose the
Introduction necessarily involves some of the description and
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Estimated Indigenous Gross Yields of Nongaseous Petroleum Products
in the USSR, by Type of Product
1953
Type of Product
Estimated Yield J
(Million Metric Tons)
Percent
of Total
Products from crude oil refining
41.7
92.2
Natural gas liquids
3.1
6.8
Synthetic oil products
0.5
1.0
Total finished products
45.3
100.0
a. These yields are shown in more detail in Table 5, p. 24, below.
The estimates of Soviet postwar product yields derived in
this report are compatible with other intelligence estimates to the
extent that those estimates serve to quantify ultimate source materials
for the derived products and to indicate the ultimate disposition of
those products. As a matter of verbal convenience, these values for
the ultimate source materials and dispositions may be defined as the
product-yield parameters.
The estimates of postwar product yields in the USSR also con-
form to the available official link relatives. As described more
completely later in this report, a petroleum-product link relative is
a ratio relating one annual yield of the product to the corresponding
yield in a previous year.
explanations which are also included later in the text. Sections IV
and V are developed so that cross reference to this introductory dis-
cussion is not necessary for an understanding of the essentials.
-6-
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The methodology developed provides a reasonably complete
system for estimating postwar yield values for the major categories
of products, thus accounting also for the principal types of pro-
cessing. In addition, the technique is developed in a generalized
form for more or less rapid and methodical application to possible
revised values of the product-yield parameters, which are constituted
by the values for source materials and dispositions as stated above.
The estimates of postwar product yields in this report there-
fore reflect all errors which may be involved in the estimates of such
parameters. The related methodology has specific limitations and is
based on the premise that the parametric values are independently
established. The methodology in itself actually serves to develop
original yield estimates only for the products from crude oil re-
fining.* For complete application to a given annual operation, the
methodology requires independently derived values for basic para-
meters as follows: indigenous production of crude oil, indigenous
yield of petroleum products other than by crude oil refining -- and
with respect to all types of nongaseous petroleum stocks -- indigenous
consumption and international trade data.
Incidental dispositions of petroleum stocks, although para-
metric, are not considered as basic parameters. The minor dispositions
consist of storage increments and the various physical material losses
which normally occur in the petroleum industry. In general, the post-
war incidental dispositions cannot be quantified on the basis of direct
data available for the USSR. Although the typical annual quantities of
such dispositions are not relatively large enough to be controlling, the
values usually have a significant total and have significant cumulative
effect when use is made of the reported official link relatives.
In formulating the postwar Soviet yields in this report, the
incidental losses and storage increments are quantified. This is done
by the use of estimating factors which are developed in the methodology.
The factors are specifically derived by supplementary considerations
or assumptions and are considered to be accurate enough for the purpose.
The methodology is generally applicable to revised estimates
of the basic parameters when and if new data with a smaller range of
probable error become available. Assuming that the estimated basic
* As already noted, however, crude oil refining furnishes more than
90 percent of all indigenous petroleum products in the USSR.
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parameters are not self-evidently contradictory in terms of over-all
quantities, the methodology serves for a detailed check of the com-
patibility of the estimates of source materials with the estimates of
dispositions. The methodology may be applied to derive an apparent
yield pattern of crude oil refining products where the products are
expressed in terms of percentages of their total. Such a pattern is
subject to technical analysis from the point of view of reasonableness.
Although there is much flexibility in practicable crude oil
refining operations, even when the quality of the crude oil and the
refining facilities are established, there are certain comprehensive
limits imposed on the plausible over-all product-yield pattern.
Although the range of practicable yield percentages may be quite wide
for a given product category, the range for reasonable practice is
nevertheless within determinable limits, and the corollary of an
increased yield percentage in one specific category is usually a
decreased yield percentage in another specific category.*
Because of the wide practicable variations in the yield pattern
of refined petroleum products, no theoretical pattern can be satis-
factorily evolved for the yields actually attained in a national crude
oil refining complex, specifically when the available data are confined
to the quantity and quality of crude oil and the installed refining
facilities. For postwar refining of crude oil in the USSR, the known
fragmentary data are here considered inadequate for direct estimates
of the actual yields of crude oil refining products, and the estimates
of the basic parameters appear to provide the only adequate framework
for realistic estimates of such yields. The methodology of this report
leads to a solution of the problem. The final form of the national
product-yield pattern is derived from the national product-demand
pattern. The demand pattern itself is developed from the estimates
of the trade balances and the ultimate dispositions.
The methodology of this report thus may be used to correlate
a comprehensive and internally consistent series of intelligence
estimates, covering the entire field of the postwar Soviet yields and
dispositions of nongaseous petroleum stock. In this series the
coverage ranges from production through processing to ultimate con-
sumption. Also covered are the stock trade balances and the attendant
dispositions in losses and storage increments.
* These facts are important even though the technical nature of the
matter precludes more detailed discussion in this report.
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This report shows the application of the methodology to the
parametric data which are currently available. The postwar yields
of petroleum products in the USSR are thus calculated by major
categories. The categories are quantified as annual yields from
1946 through 1954, conforming to the link-relative ratios which
have been officially published by the Soviet government.* The
published product link relatives form chains of percentage values,
each relating to an unrevealed 1946 yield as the base. The applied
methodology indirectly develops the basic 1946 yields so that they
are consistent with a considerable variety of other available data.
As indicated above, and as analyzed in more detail in later sections
of the report, this consistency is not provided by use of the avail-
able fragmentary data for direct estimates of the 1946 yields.
The required parametric data and three individual link
relatives are not at present available for complete application of
the generalized methodology to the postwar years. For the estimates
of 1946-54 yields, certain supplementary assumptions were applied
in addition to the supplementary assumptions which are involved in
the estimating factors. Although the pertinent details of these
features are covered in subsequent sections of this report, specific
mention is made of the fact that independent estimates are not
presently available for the annual indigenous civil consumption of
the "residual and other products" category. For the over-all sequence
of postwar years, moreover, the basic parametric data are not com-
pletely available for the consumption of products by the armed forces
and for international trade in the products.
By use of the available parameters, the reported link
relatives, and the supplementary assumptions of the methodology, the
postwar yields of "residuals and other products" result as differences
(or remainders) in the material balances. All required basic para-
meters are available at the present time for 1953 only. For 1951 and
1952, however, the only missing parameters are also of a type that can
be separately equated to a material balance remainder, provided that
the supplementary assumptions are correct. For 1946 through 1950 and
for 1954 the methodology of this report cannot be applied for over-all
material balances.
* The derived postwar product yield patterns also conform to technical
practicability.
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Because the influence of the probable ranges of error in the
estimated parameters would prevail even with all parameters avail-
able so that no supplementary assumptions would be required, the
absolute product yields thus derived must depend on other correla-
tions for independent evidence of validity. The 1946-54 yield
series in this report is further influenced by a number of
irregularities caused by the current unavailability of certain
individual parameters. The 1946 yields in this series, however,
may be correlated favorably with the known prewar trends in
product yields in the USSR and with certain independent estimates.
In view of the over-all evidence, a probable range of error
well within plus or minus 10 percent is believed to be applicable for
the absolute postwar yield values derived for gasoline, ligroine, the
kerosine category, diesel fuel, and lubricants. This range compares
with a probable range of error of up to plus or minus 25 percent as
established on a technical basis, even if possible errors are dis-
counted in crude oil availability when fragmentary data are used for
direct estimates of the product yields. In this report the remainder
yields of "residual and other products" have a probable range of
error almost directly proportional to that in the estimated crude oil
availabilities.
In the application of the methodology, an estimating factor
is used to establish the year-end storage stock value for crude oil
and each separate product, generally quantifying this stock as 12.5
percent of the respective preceding annual gross yield. This storage
reserve approximates 45 days of supply to meet average demand, which
is calculated on the basis of the preceding annual gross yield.
Because there are no known firm data revealing numerical values or
ratios for the actual Soviet storage stock quantities, the storage
factor is based on analogy with US practice. The 45-day reserve
supply is considered an average for operational reserves, providing
ballast for seasonal variations, plant shutdowns, and the like.
The reserve supply is by no means a fixed factor, even though
it reflects the average conditions which prevail in the US petroleum
industry. It is generally true, however, that with less than 15 days
of average operational reserve, serious disruptions would be very
probable in the normal stock flows and over-all operations. More than
60 days of average operational reserve would not be necessary except
under abnormal conditions.
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With no general quantitative distinctions possible except
when extreme ratios are considered, the operational reserves may be
qualitatively distinguished from stockpiles. Stockpiles in this
sense are those stocks which are handled primarily as reserves for
extraneous emergency use. Stockpiles as thus defined would logically
consist chiefly of distillate products.
Considering that the 45-day reserve supply represents
operational reserves only and that estimates of postwar yields of
distillate products in the USSR have favorable correlations with
estimated parameters, with technical considerations, with prewar
product-yield trends, and even with certain independent estimates
which provide a degree of realism in the absolute values, it is
probable that excess distillate yields are not available for the
stockpiling purposes.
In the USSR the petroleum storage stocks consist of state
reserves and working reserves. Although there are available some
inconclusive data on Soviet capacity for petroleum storage, no firm
quantitative data are available in regard to the totals of the storage
stock, and it is possible that the state reserves plus the so-called
working reserves actually comprise what should be called operational
reserves. Depending on unknown data which relate to intentions and
the actual storage stock quantities, it is also possible that the state
reserves comprise true stockpiles. It is known only that the state
reserves are subject to special government control in regard to the
quality, handling, and unrevealed minimum quantities.
II. Product Yields, 1927-37.
The earliest complete and "official" national statistics on petro-
leum product yields and crude oil refining in the USSR appear to be
those published for the fiscal year* 1927-28. 11 Prewar Soviet
publications include partial statistics of the same nature relative
to either Russia or the USSR in certain earlier years -- 1913, for
example 12/ -- and include earlier annual data on indigenous con-
sumption of gasoline, ligroin, and kerosine -- 1913 and fiscal
year 1925-26, for example. 13
* The fiscal year extended from October through September. In 1930 --
and in 1929, in some instances -- the calendar-year basis was adopted.
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The "official" statistical record of data on annual petroleum
product yields and crude oil refining in the USSR is effectively
complete for fiscal 1927-28 and 1928-29 and for the years from 1930
through 1934, and nearly complete but preliminary equivalent
statistics are included for 1935. L4/ Statistics for 1930 which
are generally compatible with those in this record may be developed
by engineering analysis of the yield data reported in another Soviet
publication, and the corresponding 1929 calendar-year statistics may
be similarly developed from the same source. / Another Soviet
publication shows the 1932 and 1935 yield data in less detail; these
yields are also generally compatible with the data developed in the
"official" record. The same publication gives corresponding yield
statistics for 1936 and shows for annual indigenous consumption of
certain distillate products* during 1932 and 1936 data which are com-
patible with the yields. 16 Indigenous consumption data on the same
distillate products were reported early in 1937 as a forecast for
1937 -- apparently on an authoritative basis with respect to state
plans.
A complete sequence of annual petroleum product yields in the USSR
has been published, covering the fiscal years 1927-28 and 1928-29 and
the calendar years from 1930 through 1937. 18 This sequence recapit-
ulates the official statistical record through 1934, and for subsequent
years is a correlation and projection of the pertinent yield data
published by the Soviet press. Hence the published sequence may be
considered sufficiently authoritative for intelligence purposes. An
independent intelligence estimate is also available as a source
reference. This reference shows Soviet yields** of petroleum products
in 1936 which are compatible with those given in the published
sequence. 19/
Reported yields of petroleum products in the USSR in 1927-28, 1932,
1936, and 1937 are shown in Table 2.*** The fiscal year 1927-28 and
the calendar year 1932 are selected because they were the first and
last years of the First Five Year Plan. The calendar years 1936 and
1937 are selected because they were the last two years of the authori-
tative sequence and of the Second Five Year Plan. The 1936 yields are
somewhat more firmly substantiated by Soviet press data than are the
1937 yields.
Gasoline, ligroine, and kerosine.
For a comparative summary of the data in the various sources cited,
see Appendix A, Table 13, p. 49, below.
*** Table 2 follows on p. 13.
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S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 2
Reported Yields of Petroleum Products in the USSR a/*
1927-28, 1932, 1936, and 1937
Thousand Metric Tons
Fiscal
Year
1927-28
1932
1936
1937
Crude oil refining
asoline 732
ht-run
Strai
1,771
1,214
1,250
g
g
0
593
1,732
1,760
Thermal cracked. gasoline
732
2,364
2,946
3,010
Total refined gasoline
130
422 b
1,190
1,295
Ligroine
Kerosine 1,912
3,560
5,433
6,132
746
889
1
1,514
1,598
Diesel fuel
346
,
698 /
1,554
1,701
Lubricants
Residual and other products 4,576
9,806
10,139
10,584
442
8
18
739
22,776
24,320
,
aseous products
Total non
,
g
440
476
1
1,998
2,128
Refining gas and loss
,
882
8
20
215
24,774
26,448
Crude
,
oil refinery charge
,
526
167
69
Crude
oil exports 2,590
672
2,949
1,984
Other
crude oil disposition J
11
4,-72
21,413
27,890
28,501
,
Total crude oil production
Nongaseous products
24
96
116
136
Natural gasoline
Crude oil refining gasoline 732
2,364
2,946
3,010
756
2,460 /
3,062
3,146
Total gasoline
Other crude oil refining products 7,710
16,375
19,830
21,310
466
8
18,835
22,892
24,456
,
roducts
Total
p
* Footnotes for Table 2 follow on p. 14.
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S-E-C-R-E-T
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Reported Yields of Petroleum Products in the USSR
1927-28, 1932, 1936, and 1937
(Continued)
Thousand Metric Tons
Fiscal
Year Calendar Year
1927-28 1932 1936 1937
Refining gas and loss
Dry refinery gas
6
234
579
635
Waste and other stock
434
1,242
1,419
1,493
Total
440
1,476
1,998
2,128
a. Product-yield figures refer to indigenous gross product yields.
As shown here, the product category yield totals are developed princi-
pally from the source report data by applying technical information
and judgment in order to combine the separately reported yield values
for the individual products. 20 Appendix A provides further summary
data for more direct correlation with the separately reported yields. 21
b. The Second Five Year Plan quotes for 1932 the following yield
values (in thousands of metric tons) which are the same as the
rounded figures shown here: 2,459 for total gasoline, 422 for
ligroine, 680 for lubricating oil (the yield of 698 for lubricants
includes a value of 18 for greases in the table). This Plan, L2/
also shows the following 1932 yields which do not seem to be on the
same basis as the later Soviet source /: 4,203 for kerosine,
1,250 for "motor oil," 8,530 for mazut.
c. This obviously consisted of "crude oil storage increment," "crude
oil use as residual product," and "crude oil loss," The latter two
"crude oil dispositions" are indicated to have been considerable in
the USSR during the prewar period. The principal "residual product"
use of unrefined crude oil is identified as fuel oil burned under
boilers. L4/
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Included in Appendix A is a more comprehensive summary for the
USSR in the prewar period, showing the currently available numerical
data on petroleum product yields and crude oil refining.
III. Product Yields, 1938-45.
There appear to be no published Soviet source data which disclose
quantitative values for Soviet yields of petroleum products obtained
after 1937?
The only available significant published or unpublished Soviet
source data which relate to the 1938-45 yields are in a captured
Soviet State Plan for 1941. Because of World War II, the captured
1941 State Plan was not applied in practice. The 1941 State Plan for
the output of petroleum products in the USSR is shown in Table 3.*
In the prewar Soviet Five Year Plans, unrealistic goals sometimes
were set. The goal for indigenous production of crude oil was set at
44.3 million tons in 1937, the last year of the Second Five Year
Plan, 26 and at 49.5 million tons in 1942, the year that was to ter-
minate the Third Five Year Plan. World War II prevented fulfillment
of the Third Five Year Plan, / of course. The actual indigenous
production of crude oil in the USSR in 1937 is estimated to have been
only 28.5 million tons. 28
In the Soviet Annual State Plans generally, however, and particu-
larly in the postwar Five Year State Plans, apparent results have
indicated reasonable accounting for Soviet capabilities. / Hence the
captured 1941 Plan may be assumed to be reasonably indicative of the
yield pattern of petroleum products in 1940, the year before the USSR
was invaded by Nazi forces.
An estimate of the Soviet yields from crude oil refining in 1939 Q
shows results that conform reasonably well with what might be inferred
from the 1941 Plan.** Another source gives an estimate of 6 million
tons for the yield of gasoline obtained by crude oil refining in the
USSR in 1940, / but this yield considerably exceeds any yield indicated
by the 1941 Plan. A US statistical handbook 12J gives estimates of the
total 1938 yields of petroleum products in the USSR. These estimated 1938,
Table 3 follows on p. 16.
See Appendix A, Table 11, p. 43, below.
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1941 State Plan for the Output of Petroleum Products in the USSR J
Quantity
(Thousand
Metric Tons)
Refinery
Charge
(Percent
of Total)
Crude Oil
Production
(Percent
of Total)
Crude oil refining
Straight-run gasoline
2,032
6.3
Thermal cracked, gasoline /
3,482
10.7
Total refined gasoline
5,514
17.0
Ligroine
1,418
4.4
Kerosine
7,119
21.9
Diesel fuel J
2,600
8.0
Residual fuel oil /
10,044
30.9
Lubricants, miscellaneous
products, refining gas
and loss e,/
5,762
17.8
Total crude oil refinery
charge
32,457
100.0
93.8
Other indigenous crude oil
disposition J
2,145
6.2
Total crude oil production
662
34
,
a. Product-yield figures refer to indigenous gross product yields.
b. 30.4 percent of the Plan cracking charge value (in thousand metric
tons) of 11,441. The thermal cracking yields in the USSR in 1938 were
reported in the Soviet press to range from 26.4 percent to 33.9 percent
of the cracking charge, mostly as annual averages in different
refineries, / although 26.4 percent is given as what appears to be
the Soviet national average during the first 9 months of the year. 35
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1941 State Plan for the Output of Petroleum Products in the USSR J
(Continued)
c.. Shown as Plan value (in thousand metric` tons of 1,100 for type
diesel fuel plus a Plan value of 1,500 for motor (heavy diesel) fuel.
d. Shown as "fuel mazut" in the Plan.
e. A value derived here as a difference., The Plan does not account
for the difference.
yields* correspond, within limits, with the 1937 pattern shown in
Table 2,** and the estimates presumably were based on miscellaneous
Soviet data.
For the 1938-45 period in the USSR the available information is
considered inadequate for a correlated estimate of the annual yields
of petroleum products.*** A reliable estimate of this sort would do
much toward solving the problem of estimating the related postwar
yields, but postwar yields can be estimated within reasonable limits
of certainty by other methodologies.
IV. Product Yields, 1946-
Soviet data published early in 1948 36 gave the ratios of the
1947 yields of certain petroleum stocks**** to the corresponding
1946 yields. Quantitative yields were not given. This publication
of ratios was the first of four, the ones covering subsequent years
following the same pattern as the first -- giving the ratio of each
annual yield to its counterpart in the preceding year and not
mentioning the quantitative yield of any product. It is significant
that three annual ratios were omitted in the over-all published
system of the series. These published ratios are representative of
The estimated yields are summarized in Table 7, p. 29, below.
P. 13, above.
Appendix A summarizes the more important Soviet petroleum
product-yield data which are available for 1938-45. See also
Table 7, p. 29, below.
*-** Crude oil, gasoline, kerosine, and diesel fuel.
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factors that are sometimes called link relatives. Effectively con-
cealed in the general instance of such a chain of link relatives is
the quantitative base yield in the most remote year to which the
factors apply. The link relatives constitute the only significant
Soviet source data applicable as an official check on estimates of
postwar petroleum product yields. The link relatives for production
of petroleum products in the USSR in 1947-54 are shown in Table 4.*
The table footnotes outline the assumptions made to establish values
for the three annual factors which were unreported.
In addition to the published link relatives for Soviet postwar
petroleum product yields, there are also other data bearing on such
yields. These data are often fragmentary and inconsistent, and they
vary widely in usefulness. The intelligence problem is to evaluate
the available data and to develop estimates of postwar petroleum
product yields which can be reasonably well correlated with the
following factors: (1) the official link relatives; (2) the most
realistic estimates of the availability of the principal crude oil
source stocks from which the products are derived; (3) the most
realistic estimates of the actual concurrent consumption of the
products, considering the export-import balances; and (4) the
best information available on product-yield trends in the past.
If the 1946 product yields were quantified and the link relatives
applied, other postwar annual Soviet yields could be calculated for
gasoline, kerosine, and diesel fuel. Such calculations are sensitive,
of course, to a variation in any'one link-relative value. The link
relatives are multiplied together in successive applications, and a
variation in one link-relative value gives rise to a greater cumu-
lative variation in the sequence. Hence the assumptions are very
important in regard to the three unreported link relatives. By use
of such assumptions as shown in Table 4,* the results may be considered
to be reasonably valid only insofar as it is possible to check the
results with other information, deductions, or inferences.
There are four distinct phases in a direct analytical approach
to the problem of estimating the postwar Soviet annual petroleum
product yields: (1) derivation of estimates for the 1946 yields;
(2) application of the link relatives to derive the subsequent
annual yields of gasoline, kerosine, and diesel fuel; (3) derivation
of estimates for the other postwar annual yields of the products in
* Table -4 follows on p. 19.
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Link Relatives for Production of Petroleum Products
in the USSR J
1947-54
Type of Product
Year
Gasoline
Kerosine
Diesel Fuel
1947
1.36
1.25
1.31
1948 J
1.12
1.17
1.32
1949 J
1.10
1.17
1.32
1950
1.17
1.08
1.58
1951 j/
1.20
1.03
1.45
1952 /
1.26
1.00 J
1.34
1953
1.11
1.23
1.34
1954
1.09
1.05
1.44
a. Production refers to indigenous gross yields.
Each value relates to production in the preceding
year. All values are reported, unless otherwise
indicated.
b. 37
c.
d. Assumed value. The assumption is that the missing
value probably approximated the corresponding value
reported in the previous year, the missing value being
unity if the previous reported value was near unity.
Arbitrary assignment of unity is often practiced in
similar instances of missing link relatives, the
assumption being that the USSR would not publish a
link relative unless the factor exceeded unit value
so as to be an index of favorable progress. On the
other hand, it is also possible that certain link
relatives may be deliberately concealed to break the
sequence of factors available for foreign intelligence
analysis. The conventional unit value is not here
assigned to the missing "diesel fuel" link relatives,
inasmuch as such a sudden decrease in the ratio
would not be consistent with estimated civil
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Table 4
Link Relatives for Production of Petroleum Products
in the USSR J
1947-54
(Continued)
consumption as elsewhere discussed in this report
and would furthermore introduce unexplained
depressions in the "diesel fuel" percentage trend
line of Figure 1, following p. 36, below. Trial cal-
culations were actually made, assuming both of the
missing "diesel fuel" link relatives to have a value
of one; serious internal inconsistencies resulted by
use of these arbitrary unit values.
e.
f.
g.
h.
i.
J?
the other three principal categories (ligroine, lubricants, and
residual and other products); and (4) development of an independent
correlation to check the resulting estimated yields in a recent
year, 1953, for example -- this would serve to check the assumptions
applied in regard to the unreported link-relatives.
The postwar petroleum product yields in the USSR have continued
to be derived for the most part, by crude oil refining. Even with
the annual crude oil charge to a national refining complex completely
known, however, many independent data also must be known before
any probable pattern* of the refinery product yields can be esti-
mated. With a given average type of crude oil for processing and
* As used in this report, the term product pattern is specifically
defined as the relationship determined by the percentages of
different products, or of different categories of products, referred
to the total of such products.
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with a given over-all system of installed refining equipment which is
completely defined from the technological point of view, the product-
yield pattern of such a refinery complex can be varied practicably and
efficiently within very wide limits.
The technique of analogy is of little practical use in estimating
the probable product-yield pattern in such a refinery complex, even
when the analogy is correlated with established technological prin-
ciples. In the US and the USSR alike, for example, the major portions
of the indigenously consumed products are derived by indigenous crude
oil refining, and the major portions of products from indigenous crude
oil refining are indigenously consumed. Yet, as shown in Table 8,*
there was marked dissimilarity in the crude oil refining product-yield
patterns in the years 1932 and 1937, and wide dissimilarity probably
continued in the postwar period.**
The total annual product yields since 1932 in the US have ranged
up to 10 or 11 times those in the USSR. In pattern as well as
quantities, it is evident that the two countries differ in product
consumption. The pattern difference does not arise from technological
differences at the source of supply. A 1952 estimate, 45 based on
technological and engineering principles, developed a theoretical yield
pattern for crude oil refining products for the USSR in 1950. This
estimate applied the US yield pattern to the installed Soviet refining
equipment and the average Soviet crude oil insofar as pertinent data
were available. Although the resulting 1950 theoretical yield pattern
for the USSR thus differed from that of the US only on the basis of
technology, necessarily generalized, the pattern still differed widely
from the most realistic estimates of the 1950 Soviet consumption of
petroleum products in the civil and military sectors. 4~
A 1952 estimate developed values for Soviet yields of crude oil
refining products in 1946*** applying certain assumptions including
a limited correlation with the captured 1941 State Plan of the USSR.
The reported link relatives were applied to the 1946 base yields by
use of certain other assumptions, and estimates were derived for the
annual Soviet yields of crude oil refining products through 1951. 47/
Here again the estimated annual Soviet yields are not compatible with
the estimates of annual indigenous product consumption, 48 but the
P. 32, below.
The comparison between the US and the Soviet product-yield patterns
is also shown graphically in Figures 1 and 2, following p. 36, below.
*** See Appendix A, Table 14, p. 57, below.
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estimated yields in 1950 / may be correlated in most respects with
the theoretical yield pattern for 1950. 50
An estimate of Soviet yields of crude oil refining products in
19+9 / seems to be based on little more than speculation.
There appears to be a firmer basis for direct estimates of the
postwar civil consumption of petroleum distillates and lubricants
in the USSR* than there is for direct estimates of the indigenous
gross yields of such products. Factors affecting the estimates of
consumption of these products are not so variable as are most of the
factors affecting estimates of the yields from crude oil refining.
Substantial data are available for the extent and types of the civil
operations which involve consumption of petroleum distillates and
lubricants. Although the civil consumption of residual fuel oil
and other residual products seems to be affected by too many uncertain
factors to permit realistic direct quantitative estimates, an adequate
estimate is available for the postwar civil consumption of petroleum
distillates and lubricants. This estimate was derived independently --
without reference to estimates of indigenous gross yields. 122
An adequate estimate is also available for the postwar annual
production of crude oil in the USSR. The estimate is essentially
within the limits indicated by official Soviet reports. The same esti-
mate covers the probable postwar annual potential yields of natural
gas liquids in the USSR.
The most realistic approach to estimates of Soviet gross product
yields in the postwar period appears to be one which is consistent
with the estimates of crude oil production, the yields of natural
gas liquids, and civil consumption. Independent estimates are avail-
able for the postwar annual gross yields of synthetic oil products
in the USSR.** Assuming that estimates are also available for the
annual consumptions of petroleum distillates and lubricants directly
utilized by the Soviet armed forces and for the annual import-export
balances in crude oil and petroleum products, the problem is
essentially reduced to that of estimating the indigenous gross yields
derived by crude oil refining.
* For a discussion of civil' consumption of lubricants, see
Appendix B, 1-, b.
** See Appendix B.
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The method used here consists of deriving estimates for indigenous
gross product yields in at least one postwar year so that indigenous
net availability yields* are in balance with the total indigenous
product consumption -- after accounting for storage increments and the
import-export balances. Both the gross yields and the indigenous civil
consumption of the "residual and other products" result by difference.
The complete annual petroleum stock balance specifically involves the
application of constant estimating factors which can be evaluated
within a reasonable probability range for the following: (1) use of
unrefined crude oil as a product; (2) crude oil handling loss;
(3) crude oil storage increment; (Lt) refining gas and loss; (5) dis-
tribution losses in petroleum products; and (6) storage increments for
the petroleum products. The complete stock balance is otherwise
based entirely on the independently estimated quantities as outlined
above.
For a direct estimate of all petroleum product yields in the USSR
in a postwar year, available information is adequate only for 1953.
For this year alone are there simultaneously available the realistic
and independent estimates necessary to derive total indigenous con-
sumption of the principal distillates and lubricants and the national
import-export balances in crude oil and petroleum products. Soviet
gross product yields for other postwar years are estimated by the use
of the reported link relatives and the assumed constant estimating
factors.**
The estimated yields of petroleum products in the USSR, by type of
source, in 19+6-54 are shown in Table 5.*** The estimated***-*
This terminology is defined in the Introduction.
For methodology, see Appendix B. Technical considerations show
that the product-yield patterns derived for crude oil refining are
reasonable and are in correlation with the available data on average
crude oil quality and installed refining facilities in the USSR.
These considerations cannot be summarized properly in a nontechnical
report. The special feature in point is the increase in relative
yields of diesel fuel as discussed in Part V.
3 * Table 5 follows on p. 24.
*XXX Continued on p. 26.
-23-
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 App Hgve~
U
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Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093A001000130001-3
 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
total yields of petroleum products in the USSR in 1946-54 are shown
in Table 6.* The over-all check on the apparent reasonableness of the
estimates is on the basis of the yields developed for 1946 and is as
discussed below.
World War II damage to Soviet crude oil production and refining
facilities was officially reported to have been repaired during the
course of the Fourth Five Year Plan (1946-5o). The rehabilitation
probably was completed in the latter part of the period. 60 It is
probable, therefore, that Soviet refining facilities as of 1946 were
not operating at the immediate prewar level of output, efficiency,
and product pattern. An index to this prewar level is in the
captured 1941 State Plan.** The actual 1946 operating level probably
would more nearly approach that of an earlier prewar year such as
1937, the last year of the prewar "authoritative" sequence of yields.***
In considering the probable Soviet yields of petroleum products
in 1946, it should be noted that US petroleum refining engineers and
technologists were in the USSR as late as the fall of 1946. From 1942
to 1946 these representatives of US companies were concerned with the
bilateral arrangements sometimes called the Houdry Lend-Lease Projects.
The Houdry units were the earliest catalytic cracking facilities to
be installed in the USSR. 61
The Houdry projects terminated a sequence of events which began
in 1929 wherein major crude oil refining facilities were supplied to
the USSR by major US petroleum refinery engineering and construction
companies. The US companies either installed the facilities or
supervised the construction, and usually they had qualified technical
representatives in the USSR at various times for considerable periods.
Beginning in 1929, the US companies furnished and sometimes erected
the earliest commercial thermal cracking units in the USSR. Winkler-
Koch units were the earliest and the most common of the modern types
to be furnished. In 1939-40, refining equipment furnished and
installed by US companies consisted of the first catalytic refining
facilities to be constructed in the USSR. These facilities were com-
posed of units for catalytic polymerization and codimer hydrogenation. L2/
Table 6- follows on p. 27.
See Table 3, p. 16, above.
See Table 2, p. 13, above.
Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
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Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
The 1938-1+6 period-is of special importance in this report. It is
probable that the US petroleum industry gathered much specific infor-
mation about the refining operations and product yields in the USSR
during that period. ~Jj
As noted in Section III of this report, the American Statistical
Handbook gives estimates of indigenous gross petroleum product yields
in the USSR for 1938 and 1946. These estimates assume the 1938 and
19+6 annual product-yield patterns to be identical and presumably were
derived on the basis of this assumption and data generally available
in the petroleum industry. L
A comparison of estimates of total gross yields of petroleum
products in the USSR in 1937, 1938, and 19+6 is shown in Table 7.*
Significant correspondence of data is indicated in Table 7 -- some-
times in product-yield patterns and sometimes in absolute-yield
quantities.
V. Trends and Product-Yield Patterns.
Percentage** trends and yield patterns for Soviet crude oil
refining operations are shown in Figure 1.*** Equivalent information
for US crude oil refining operations, based on published petroleum
statistics, is shown in Figure 2.*** The US distillate-lubricant
yield line is reproduced in Figure 1 for comparison. A comparison
of petroleum balances in the USSR and the US in 1932 and 1937 is
shown in Table 8.**** A comparison of petroleum balances in the
USSR and the US in 19+6 and 1953 is shown in Table 9.*****
Gasoline has continued to be the most important type of petroleum
stock in the US, and the refining operations are generally directed
toward improved quality in an optimum yield of gasoline. The major
emphasis in the USSR has been on kerosine yield, and, in the more
recent postwar years, on diesel fuel. Differences in quality of the
average crude oil in the two countries partially account for the
difference in emphasis.
Table 7 follows on p. 29.
The percentages correspond to quantitative data given in the
appendixes.
Following p. 36.
Table 8 follows on p. 32.
Table 9 follows on p. 31+.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01 Q93A001000130001-3
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Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
In the USSR the indigenous crude oils are predominantly of the
so-called naphthene base types, containing much asphalt base and even
aromatic base stock. 66 The Soviet crude oils contain little
paraffin base stocks, but the indigenous US crude oils are mostly of
paraffin base and mixed base. In nontechnical terms this means that
average Soviet crude oils in comparison with US crude oils, contain
a much smaller percentage of straight-run gasoline, although the
average Soviet virgin gasoline would be good straight-run aviation
gas base stock because of its content of naphthenes 67 ; a probable
equal percentage of potential straight-run kerosine, if this potential
kerosine cut is taken as a product; and a larger percentage of virgin
heavy gas oil which is above the usual diesel fuel boiling range, even
assuming that such gas oil had quality suitable for diesel fuel use
(naphthenic stock generally has low cetane rating).
In the Soviet crude oils the potential naphthenicvirgin gas-oils
would comprise good catalytic cracking charge stock, giving large
relative yields of high-quality gasolines with high-octane aviation
gas base stock included. 68 There is evidence to indicate, however,
that catalytic cracking has no high priority status in the USSR, 69/
even though some new catalytic cracking plants, in addition to the
World War II Houndry units, / probably have been constructed in the
USSR. Figure 1 shows that the trend has been to use cracking, probably
thermal cracking in major part to derive a larger percentage of total
diesel fuel with only a moderate increase in the yield of total
gasoline (gasoline and ligroine). It is indicated that ligroin will
no longer be obtained as a product after 1954. 71
Figure 1 and the reported link relatives shown in Table 4* indicate
a large and steady increase in the Soviet yields of total diesel fuel
through 1954. Increased percentage yield in the gas oil products in
the US is indicated in Figure 2. In the US the gas oil products con-
sist of diesel fuel and distillate fuel oil for end use as such
(see Tables 8 and 9**), but the relative proportion of diesel fuel
has been increasing in the US -- from 14.9 percent of the gas oil
products in 1937 to 28.1 percent in 1953.
Figure 1 shows that in the relative yield of principal distillates
plus lubricants, the yield pattern for crude oil refining products in
the USSR is approaching that of the US as of 1954. Figure 1 also shows
P. 19, above.
Pp. 32 and 34, respectively, below.
Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
that there has been a corresponding relative decrease in the yield of
"residual and other products" in the USSR. Residual fuel oil, or
mazut, is considered to be a valuable product in the USSR, however,
and the relative yield of that product probably will not be reduced
beyond a minimum. 72
This report is not primarily concerned with the yield of aviation
engine fuels in the USSR; the aviation gasoline yield is included as
an unspecified portion of total gasoline, and the jet fuel yield is
included as an unspecified portion of total kerosine.
With specific consideration of aviation engine fuels excluded, the
estimated postwar product yields are not particularly indicative of
capabilities, vulnerabilities, and intentions. The physical vulner-
abilities are those which are generally well established for petroleum
industry operations. In the manufacture of petroleum products the
USSR appears to have the capability to continue with the product-yield
pattern as indicated in the estimates. As of 195+ the USSR is esti-
mated to have approached what would be the practicable limit in the
percentage yield of distillates plus lubricants. There is no indi-
cation that the USSR plans to place more emphasis on the relative
yield of gasoline. The present emphasis on increased yield of diesel
fuel probably will continue until a practicable optimum is attained.
There is no indication of plans for extensive stockpiling of petro-
leum products in the USSR. The present pattern of product consumption
appears to approximate the present pattern of product yields with
only normal annual storage increments involved. Stockpiling of
products probably would be centered in distillates, and large increases
in such stockpiling are not indicated.
Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
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Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
 R
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093A001000130001-3
S-E-C-R-E-T
APPENDIX A
SUPPLEMENTARY DATA ON PETROLEUM PRODUCT YIELDS, 1927-k6
1. Available Data.
As summarized in Section II, official Soviet reports provide a
firm basis for the 1928-37 yields of petroleum products in the USSR.
For the earlier part of this period the official reports are relatively
complete. Since 1937, however, the reports have been rare and indeter-
minate, and conclusive information on product yields has been lacking
in other available sources.
A condensed summary of information on yields of petroleum products
for 1938 and later years is given in Sections III and IV. This infor-
mation follows the usual pattern, becoming increasingly meager and more
uncertain the later the year. From the quantitative point of view,
Soviet reports of the yields in the later years appear to be restricted
to fragments of two types. Although these fragments show no absolute
quantities for the actual product yields derived in Soviet practice,
each type has some degree of usefulness for deductions, inferences,
and counterchecks. One type of fragment is contained in the captured
1941 Soviet State Plan,* probably applicable to the immediate prewar
period. The other type consists of the link relatives** which have
been published annually and which relate to the postwar period.
The data on yields of Soviet petroleum U/ are especially equivocal
for the World War II years, particularly so for petroleum product
yields.*** As noted in Section III, available information is
inadequate for an over-all correlated estimate of Soviet petroleum
product yields from 1938 through 1945. Although reasonably realistic
estimates of the yields may be derived for the earlier part of this
period -- before the full impact of World War II on the USSR**** --
the uncertainty of the World War II yields makes a hypothetical
1938-45 correlation of little practical use.
See Table 3, p. 16, above.
See Table 4, p. 19, above.
Estimates of the World War II production of Soviet indigenous
crude oil are included in a recently published report. 78/
An estimate of the 1938 yields is shown in Table 7, p. 29, above,
and estimates of the yields of 1939 crude oil refining are shown in
Table 11, p. 43, below.
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
Tables 10, 11, and 12* provide a summary of the yields of petroleum
product in the USSR for fiscal year 1927-28 and the following calendar
years through 1937. Tables 10 and 11 show the national yield patterns
in major categories of products. These yield patterns are generally
useful in estimating corresponding postwar yields. Table 12 completes
the record, showing the direct correlation with the principal
sources _[7/ used as the basis of Tables 10, 11, and 12 and indicating
the methodology employed to develop the totals for major categories
of products in Tables 10 and 11.
Soviet reports other than those used as the basis of Tables 10, 11,
and 12 are complete and specific enough to be important.in estimating
Soviet petroleum product yields from 1929 through 1937. These reports
sometimes contain data which seem to contradict that shown in Tables 10,
11, and 12. Actually, the contradictions are more apparent than real.
A correlation of the data provided by the various sources is shown in
Table 13.** The table will serve a useful purpose if confusion should
arise in the future because of apparent contradictions in the Soviet
reports. Table 13 outlines not only the direct comparisons, but also
the methodologies by which the major differences may be explained as a
confounding of terms and as discrepancies in the reporting of the product
categories.
Table 14*** provides a correlation of the data in Sections III and
IV and shows the basis of certain generalized statements in the text.
2. National Yields and Political Areas.
The Soviet petroleum yields developed in this report include only
the production within the political boundaries of the USSR in the given
year. Relatively minor quantities of petroleum products were obtained,
however, in the 1928-54 period from areas which were not within the
USSR before the close of World War II -- Estonia (shale oil products)
and the Carpathian Polish sector (crude oil refining products). The
petroleum product yields in these areas are excluded from Soviet totals
for the prewar and wartime periods.
* Tables 10, 11, and 12 follow on pp. 40, 43, and 46, respectively,
below.
** Table 13 follows on p. 49.
*** Table 14 follows on p. 57.
- 38 -
Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
S-E-C-R-E-T
Data on the comparatively small yields of petroleum products
obtained in the Carpathian Polish crude oil refineries before the area
became a part of the USSR are not available. By virtue of its status
as the principal contributor to the postwar Soviet yields of the shale-
oil type of synthetic oil products, Estonia is of some importance.
Estimates of the postwar synthetic oil product yields in the Estonian
SSR are based, to some extent, on corresponding yields in prewar
Estonia. A series of the prewar yields of petroleum products in
Estonia is shown in Table 15.*
3. Volume-to-Weight Conversion Factors.
With the exception of certain source reports, 80/** all quantities
given in this report are stated in sources in terms of weight. The
volume-to-weight conversion factors applied to the volume data in the
two reports mentioned are shown in Table 16.***
Table 15 follows on p. 59.
See Table 7, p. 29, above, and Table 18, p. 66, below.
Table 16 follows on p. 62.
Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
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Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
 Approved For+ tejease 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
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Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
b. Refining Gas and Loss.
The derivation of an estimating factor for refining gas and
loss is somewhat complicated. Tables 10 and 11* give the prewar
percentages of the crude oil refinery charge accounted for by
refining gas and loss. These percentages are shown to vary from 3
percent of the crude oil refinery charge in 1928-29 to about 8 percent
in 1935-37. The percentage of refining gas and loss tends to increase
with the relative increase in cracking operations -- a normal trend
because cracking operations are usually the source of most the pro-
duction of refinery gas -- and the production of refinery gas increased
in the prewar period with relative increase in cracking. Dry refinery
gas increased from less than 0.1 percent of the crude oil refinery
charge in 1927-28 to about 2.4 percent in 1937 (see Tables 10 and 11*).
The relative increase in cracking operations continued. This
is indicated by comparison of the data in Tables 10 and 11 with the 1941
State Plan (Tables 3 and 14**) and by further comparison of the same
data with various other estimates. 1 1
Hence larger postwar than prewar percentages of dry refinery
gas, and consequently larger percentages of refining gas and loss,
would be normal. Another reason for a large percentage of refinery gas
is that the USSR has limited capacity for polymerization reversions
(see Table 19, footnote s ***). Conversion refining**** of the poly-
merization reversion type serves in part to form liquid petroleum
products from the heaviest or least volatile components which other-
wise would remain in the refinery gas. Another reason for the larger
percentage of refinery gas and loss is that the USSR does have some
capacity for catalytic cracking.***** Catalytic cracking tends to
produce a greater carbon deposit than do the thermal cracking pro-
cesses, which are generally used in the USSR. (Carbon or coke is
Pp. 40 and 43, respectively, above.
Pp. 16 and 57, respectively, above.
P. 71, above.
Conversion refining consists of those petroleum-refining
operations which cause chemical change in the principal constituents.
In addition to the reversion type of process already mentioned, con-
version refining includes the processes which come within the general
meaning of cracking and reforming.
***** See V, p. 28, above.
S-E-C-R-E-T
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
deposited upon the catalyst or other media present in the zone of
reaction, and a carbon deposit thus developed is not normally
recovered for output of petroleum products.)
It is also probable that the Soviet refining practice has
become more efficient and has thus reduced the prewar percentage of
miscellaneous refining losses exclusive of those due to the refinery
gas. Before World War II the miscellaneous refining losses varied
from less than 3 percent of the crude oil refinery charge in 1928-29
to more than 6 percent in 1932 (see Tables 10 and 11*). In the US,**
where an extensive practice of catalytic cracking together with the
alkylation/polymerization reversions was featured in the latter part
of the period 1931-53, the following percentages of the crude oil
refinery charge have prevailed:
Percentage Range
1931 - 1945
1946 - 1953
Dry refinery gas
3.7 to
5.2
3.3 to 4.3
Other refining losses
1.5 to
4.3
1.3 to 2.7
Refining gas and loss
6.5 to
8.8
2.7 to 6.4
For determining postwar refining gas and loss in the USSR before
1953, the estimating factor is presently assumed to be 9 percent of the
crude oil refinery charge. In order to account for the increased
cracking which is indicated by increased relative yields of distillates
(see Figure 1***), this estimating factor is increased to 10.2 percent
after 1952. The 9-percent estimating factor has a somewhat involved
technical derivation. 1.52/ Although the derivation was correlated
with certain assumptions which now are not believed to be realistic,
especially those referring to the hypothetical objectives to be
obtained by use of the Soviet cracking facilities, the applied
variations would have little effect upon the estimating factor for
refining gas and loss.
Pp. 40 and 43, above.
The development of the US data is as indicated in Table $,
footnote b, p. 33, above.
*** Following p. 36.
- 78 -
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
c. Consumption of Nongaseous Petroleum Products in Processing.
In this report the consumption of nongaseous petroleum products
in processing is considered to be restricted to the consumption of
residual fuel oil in crude oil refining (see I. above, and also
Table 13, footnote e*). The fragmentary available data on such con-
sumption in the USSR are of little value for estimating purposes. In
1936, for instance, some of the largest Soviet refineries reportedly
consumed a quantity of fuel oil equivalent to about 11 percent of the
crude oil refinery charge. J Soviet stock wastes, particularly
the needless or wasteful consumption of residual fuel oil (mazut),
were severely criticized recently in the Soviet press. 154/ As will
be shown below, the estimating factor for this consumption is only
of incidental use in the present methodology. The factor itself is
derived by analogy with US data.**
In the US crude oil refinery complex the general pattern of
fuel consumption in processing is as follows:
(1) Sources of net heat and mechanical energy input
(a) Purchased electrical power
(b) Purchased steam
(c) Combustion of fuels
(2) Types of fuels burned
(a) Coal (in power plants)
(b) Petroleum derivatives
Natural gas
Crude oil charge derivatives
(3) Crude oil charge derivatives as fuels
(a) Refining gas and loss materials
Acid sludge oil
Dry refinery gas
Pp. 3 and 56, respectively, above.
See Table 8, footnote b, p. 33, above, for the basis of the US data.
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(b) Nongaseous petroleum products
Petroleum coke (in power plants)
Residual fuel oil
It is probable that a similar general pattern, with modification,
is also applicable to the Soviet crude oil refinery operations. It is
evident that with one exception the type of the consumed fuel is almost
entirely dependent upon choice. The one exception is that for greater
practicability of operation and equipment design, the fuels probably
are restricted to fluid* types when the fuels are directly fired to
heat the petroleum stock. The fuels for direct heating of petroleum
stock are fired in various furnaces or fireboxes, including the fur-
naces in tubestill heaters and the fireboxes under the old-fashioned
pot stills. It is possible that pot stills are retained in limited use
in the USSR.
Even when the general type of processing and the actual end
products are known, moreover, there is no technical basis for a realistic
estimate of the total net energy input itself, the principal reasons
being as follows: The requirement of net input of heat and mechanical
energy from the above-mentioned sources is determined to some extent by
the efficiency of design and operation. The total input of energy for
the specified end results is the sum of this net requirement plus
recovered heat. Proper design and operation, for example, may reduce
the net requirement (1) by elimination of needless intermediate pro-
cesses which use part of the total energy input, (2) by use of
insulation and a variety of devices to eliminate needless loss of heat,
and (3) by use of heat exchange to recover from hot material heat
which would otherwise be wasted, such as the heat liberated when the
carbon deposit is burned to remove it from catalyst material.
The composite fuels and equivalent fuel data for the US (based
on recorded statistics and computed in this report, taking into account
the respective heating values and physical densities of the fuels, are
as follows):
* In this report the term fluid is used in the broad sense to include
both gases and liquids.
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Range (Percentage of
Crude Oil Refinery Charge)
For total net energy input
Dry refinery gas available
Balance as residual fuel oil*
Combination of above**
Coal
Natural gas
Acid sludge oil
Dry refinery gas
Petroleum coke
Residual fuel oil
Combination of above"
3.3 to 5.2
4.8 to 8.5
9.5 to 12.1
0.2 to 1.1
1.3 to 3.8
0.1 to 0.8
3.3 to 5.2
0.02 to 0.5
1.9 to 5.8
9.7 to 12.4
In this report the postwar Soviet refinery consumption of
residual fuel oil is assumed to be 3 percent of the crude oil refinery
charge. The estimating factor is intermediate within the range for US
practice, and is considered to be adequate for the incidental use which
the factor has in the methodology. It is assumed that the Soviet
crude oil refineries obtain from various other sources the remaining
net requirement of heat and mechanical energy input. In addition to
dry refinery gas and residual fuel oil, the principal other.fuel,
apparently available in sufficient quantities for significant use in
Soviet refineries, is probably natural gas. 155
d. Losses in Distribution of Petroleum Products.
The estimating factor for the Soviet losses in distribution of
petroleum products is here assumed to be 2 percent of the net product
Calculated to have a heating value equivalent to that of all fuels
burnedlwith the exception of dry refinery gas; also calculated to
account for the relatively small heat equivalents in purchased steam
and electricity.
** The two sets of combined percentages do not necessarily correspond
in any given year, owing to the purchased steam and electricity and
the differences in heating values per unit weight of the different fuels.
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yields.* This estimating factor is based upon general experience and
company data in US practice and is correlated where possible with
Soviet data. This establishes the general order of magnitude which,
in the absence of more realistic data, is considered adequate. Various
Soviet reports deal with phases of the subject, but the information
provided is generally qualitative and not numerically resolvable except,
sometimes, to infer limits on a national basis. A brief review of a
selection of the Soviet data is as follows:
Actual loss percentages have been published in the Soviet
press, but the data are identified ambiguously and apparently refer to
a combination of handling losses in production and refining of crude
oil and in distribution of petroleum products. The reports seem to
infer that the losses consist of the extraneous or needless types of
losses. The data on losses, moreover, seem to apply only to the
"eastern" areas of the USSR (presumably the USSR exclusive of the
Caucasus and the Ukraine). The loss percentages presumably refer to
the crude oil refinery charge as a base and are reported as follows:
4.7 percent in 1940, 1262 6.5 percent in 1941, 1 5.3 percent in
1942, 4.7 percent in 1943, 4.5 percent in 1944, 4.4 percent in 1953,
and 4.2 percent in 1946. 158
In 1938 the transportation type of petroleum-product distri-
bution losses were stated to have been 1.7 percent of the petroleum
products shipped during the summer season in railroad tank cars. L52/
Plans and exhortations for improvements and also records of actual
improvements are indicated in a number of Soviet sources dealing with
product distribution losses and further with the techniques and equip-
ment for the handling and storage of the products. The Soviet source
reports of this type may be variously classified as economic, techno-
logical, and engineering studies. 160
Soviet sources also deal with the elimination of waste and the
efficiency in the handling, storage, distribution, utilization, and
consumption of petroleum products, referring in particular to lubri-
cants and to liquid fuels for engines. Among such reports there are
* Net petroleum product yields and gross petroleum product yields are
,considered identical in this report except in the case of "residual
and other products" derived by crude oil refining. See I, A, p. 3,
above; Table 10, footnote c, p. 42, above; and this appendix, 3, c,
p. 79, above.
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those which provide extensive treatment of technological features; some
of these refer specifically to the utilization in tractors and in all
types of agricultural machinery, 161 while others relate directly to
machine tractor stations and state farms. 162 Technical norms giving
the maximum allowable loss percentages (referred to the stocks handled)
were recently formalized. 16
e. Storage Increments.
The introduction* of this report discusses briefly the esti-
mating factor applied for year-end storage reserves in the USSR. For
crude oil and for each category of petroleum products, the postwar
year-end storage reserve is, with certain exceptions, assumed to be
12.5 percent of the respective gross yields for the preceding year.
The exceptions refer to the initial, or 1945, year-end storage reserves
of petroleum products. It is probable that the year-end storage reserves
for 1945 were at a low level since this status immediately followed World
War II -- a period of heavy consumption requirements while refining oper-
ations were generally disrupted. Year-end storage reserves for 1945 are
calculated as percentages of the respective gross yields derived in 1946.
For estimating purposes the 1945 year-end storage reserve for the kerosine
category** is assumed to have been 10 percent of the 1946 gross yield and
for all other categories of products, 2.5 percent of the respective 1946
gross yield.
The 12.5 percent factor*** approximates 45 days of reserve supply
and is based upon analogy with US data. The 45 days of reserve supply is
considered to be the minimum for refined petroleum products in US prac-
tice. 164 General statistics show that -- as a percentage of the
preceding total annual new supply of crude oil in the US, with more than
90 percent of this total new supply being, in each year of the period,
the annual indigenous crude oil production -- the year-end crude oil
storage reserve in the years 1944-53, ranged from 10.7 percent to 13.2
percent.**** The 12.5-percent factor is assumed for crude oil in the
USSR, corresponding to the similar factor applied for petroleum products.
P. 3, above.
Hereafter in Appendix B equivalent liquefied petroleum gases are
included in the term kerosine when kerosine is used to mean kerosine
category, or, more specifically, kerosine and equivalent products. See
the Summary, the first tabulation, p. 1, above; Tables 6 and 7, pp. 27
and 29, respectively, above; and Table 19, footnote q, p. 71, above.
See I. B, p. 5, above.
See Table 8, footnote b, p. 33, above, for the basis of the US data.
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4. Calculation of Estimates of Postwar Product Yields.
a. Formulation of the Numerical Calculations.
Appendix B, Section 5, presents the complete formulations for
the material balances of the methodology.* The balances involve
numerous separate quantities, and the use of literal symbols thus seems
the only satisfactory means for developing the relationships. The
formulations are all resolved as simplified algebraic equations.
Although intermediate algebraic relationships are recorded so as to
provide a pattern for reference should the methodology be applied to
revised parametric data in the future, the actual calculations may be
made with combined equations, thus deriving the final numerical re-
sults directly, without showing intermediate relationships.
The formulated material balances depend upon a variety of
supplementary assumptions. The supplementary assumptions are applied
chiefly to derive hypothetical constants for estimating. The assump-
tions serve to bridge the gaps in intelligence. The methodology
otherwise serves merely to express the self-evident equalities of
total availabilities and total dispositions as outlined below:
(1) Availabilities of Crude Oil.**
(a) Indigenous production
(b) Imports
(2) Disposition of Crude Oil.
(a) Handling losses
(b) Direct product use
(c) Storage increment
(d) Exports
(e) Indigenous refinery charge, disposition as follows:
Indigenous refinery gas and loss
Indigenous gross yields of crude oil refining products
* These formulations are mathematical expressions of the balance
relationships which are described generally in I, B, p. 5, above,
and further in IV, p. 17, above.
** The total availability constitutes the total new supply.
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(3) Availabilities of Petroleum Products.*
(a) Crude oil in direct petroleum product use
(b) Indigenous gross yields of:
Natural gas liquids
Synthetic petroleum products
Crude oil refining products
) Petroleum product imports
(4) Dispositions of Petroleum Products.
(a) Distribution losses
(b) Storage increment
(c) Exports
(d) Indigenous consumption in:
Civil sector
Military sector
b. Tabular Summaries of Calculated Balances.
Tables 21 through 31** record the numerical details of the final
results derived by applying the methodology so as to develop estimated
values where these values apply in turn to the postwar yields of crude
oil and petroleum products in the USSR. Each table is developed in
the form of a sequence of subbalances showing the relationships which
are implied by the following general terms: gross yields, net product
yields, product net availability yields, and total new supply (total
availability).
The tables are thus very detailed in order to provide patterns
for possible future applications of the methodology to revised para-
meters. The blank spaces illustrate the gaps in intelligence. The
details of these tables, therefore, include numerous intermediate values
which would not need to be calculated if the methodology were applied
to derive the final over-all yield estimates directly.
The total availability constitutes the total new supply.
Tables 21 through 31 follow on pp. 99 through 118, below.
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It is noted that the estimates of civil Consumption of lubri-
cants are only tentative. In the source, 165 J which provides the
values of the civil consumption parameters see Table 17*) the
quantities for lubricants are based essentially upon the quantities
for the residual and other products category, whereas that source's
estimates for the residual and other products category are discounted
in the present report (see Table 17,* footnote a). That source's
estimate for lubricants in 1953 would not be much influenced by the
present methodology, however, and this 1953 value is considered a
realistic parameter. The further assumption that the yield of lubri-
cants is a constant percentage of the crude oil refinery charge** is
considered sufficiently realistic for estimating purposes. The "basis
for the assumed constant percentage is shown in Figure 1*** for pre-
war Soviet yields and in Figure 2**** for US yields.
The reported link relatives are considered directly applicable
to the calculated gross petroleum product yields. Although the link
relatives are cryptically recorded without further explanation in the
Soviet press, and thus may be given various interpretations, only the
gross yields would be logically adaptable to consistent measurement
for the purpose of providing an index of annual achievements.
Table 21 shows the estimated data for crude oil, and Tables 22
through 29***** provide the numerical details for petroleum products.
Table 30t summarizes the data for all nongaseous petroleum stock in the
USSR, resulting by combination of the values of Tables 21 through 29.
Table 31ft summarizes the estimated postwar crude oil refining
operations in the USSR and develops the percentages which are shown
graphically in Figure 1.***
c. Example of Numerical Calculations.
The detailed pattern of the numerical calculations is illus-
trated by the following example which is developed for crude oil and
total gasoline. The algebraic symbols and equations are established
by cross reference to Appendix B, Section 5-
P. 7-, above.
See Appendix B, Section 5, equation 43, p. 95, below.
Following p. 36.
Following p. 36.
Tables 21 through 29 follow on pp. 99 through 114, below.
} Table 30 follows on p. 116.
t Table 31 follows on p. 118.
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(1) Crude Oil in 1952-
a7 = Indigenous production
= 45,6oo (Table 21, p. 99, below)
(2) Crude Oil in 1953*
(3;
a8 = Indigenous production
= 49,600 (Table 21, p. 99, below)
b8 = Handling losses
= 0.04 a8 (Equation 19)
= (0.04) (49,6oo) = 1,984
c8 = Direct product use
= 0.01 a8 (Equation 20)
= (0.01) (49,600) = 496
e8 = Storage increment
= 0.125 (a - a7) (Equation 22)
= 0.125 (49,6oo - 45,600) = 500
f8 = Imports
= 200 (Table 18, p. 66, above)
98 = Exports
= 342 (Table 18, p. 66, above)
m8 = Crude oil refinery charge
a b8 c - e+ f8 - 98 (Equation 4)
= 45,600 - 1,984 -8496 - 500 + 200 - 342
= 46,478
Gasoline in 1953'
F8G = Imports
= 2,504 (Table 18, p. 66, above)
G8G = Exports
= 354 (Table 18, p. 66, above)
* All figures in this tabulation are given in terms of thousand metric
tons annually.
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H8G = Civil consumption
= 8,928 (Table 17, p. 65, above)
J8G = Military consumption
= 1,928 (Table 17, p. 65, above)
K8G = Link relative
= 1.11 (Table 17, p. 65, above)
A8G = Indigenous gross yield
= G8G - F8G + H8G + J8G (Equation 52)
n aR _ n K8G - 1
K8G
= 354 - 2,504 + 8,928 + 1,928
0.98 - 0.125 1.11 - 1
1.11
8,7o6 = 8,7o6 = 8,998
0.98 - 0.012 0:9676
= K8G A7G (Equation 7) (Equation 40)
=1.11A7G
A7G = Indigenous gross yield in 1952
= 8,998 = 8,107 (balance value)
1.11
N8G = Indigenous net yield
= A8G (Equation 18)
= 8,998
B8G = Distribution losses
= 0.02 N8 (Equation 23)
= (0.02) ?8,998) = 180
C8G = Refinery product consumption
= 0 (Equation 14)
* Balance values are those values that resulted from use of composite
equations and rounded values, arithmetical balances being forced in the
over-all series of postwar years.
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E8G = Storage increment
= 0.125 (A8G - A7G) (Equation 26)
= (0.125) (8,998 - 8,107)
= (0.125) (891) = 112 (balance value)
A8G = BgG + E8G - F8G + G8G + H8 + J8G (Equation 6)
= 180 + 112 - 2 5O1 + 354 + 8,928 + 1,928
= 8,998 (Q.E.D.5
A8G = Indigenous gross yield of synthetic gasoline
= 89 (Table 19, p. 68, above)
?
AG = Indigenous gross yield of natural gasoline
= 1,2+0 (Table 19, p. 68, above)
A8G = ABG,+ ABG + A8G (Equation 16)
8,998 = A8G + 89 + 1,2+0
A8G = Indigenous gross yield of crude oil refining gasoline
= 8,998 - 89 - 1,2+0 = 7,669
Outline of Numerical Calculations.
a. Definition of Literal Symbols.
(1) Crude Oil.
a = Indigenous production.
b = Handling losses.
c = Use as unrefined product (residual and other).
d = Year-end storage reserve.
e = Storage increment.
f = Imports.
g = Exports.
m = Crude oil refinery charge.
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(2) Each Nongaseous Product.
A = Gross yield.*
B = Distribution losses.
C = Refinery product consumption (residual and other).
D = Year-end storage reserve
E = Storage increment.
F = Imports.
G = Exports.
H = Civil consumption including C -- refinery product
consumption.
J = Military consumption.
K = Link relative.
N = Net yield.*
(3) Subscripts.
G = Gasoline.
L = Ligroine.
K = Kerosine and equivalent end-use products.
D = Diesel fuel.
B = Lubricants.
R = Residual and other products.
T = Total nongaseous products.
* As defined on p. 4, above.
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Q = Any nongaseous product.
P = Gasoline, kerosine category, or diesel fuel.
S = Any nongaseous product except R -- Residual
and other products.
W = Any nongaseous product except kerosine category.
r = denotes correlated annual data for a given year.
r = 0 for 1945; r = 1 for 1946; ... r = 9 for 1954.
(4)
Superscripts.'
(5)
for crude-oil refining petroleum products.
for synthetic-oil petroleum product.
for natural gas liquids.
Other.
Equations
Z = Crude oil refining gas and loss.
YrQ = (KrQ.) (K(r-l)Q) (K(r-2)Q) ... (K2Q)
(1)
Y(r-l)Q = (K(r-l)Q) (K(r-2)Q) ... (K2Q) = YrQJKrQ (2)
YrQ - Y(r-l)Q = (KrQ --l) Y(r-l)Q (3)
b. Data Given for Application.
ar.
fr, if r
gr, if r ? 1.
Krp, if r z 2.
HrS, if r ? 2.
No superscript is used for total from all sources.
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J8Q.
FrQ, where r = 1, 2, 6, 7, 8.
GrQ, where r = 6, 7, 8.
JrL = 0; FrL
tt
= 0; GrL = 0; ArL
ArB = 0; ArB'=0; A
tit ttt
ArD =0; ArR
"
A
rQ?
A ttt
rQ?
B = ArB?
0; ArL = 0; ArL =
c. Material Balances by Definition.
Crude oil:
mr=ar - br - cr- er+fr - gr
er = dr - d(r-1)
Any nongaseous product:
ArQ = BrQ + ErQ - FrQ + GrQ + HrQ
KrQ A(r-l)Q = YrQ A1Q
ErQ = DrQ - D(r-1)Q
Total nongaseous products:
ArT =ArT+ArT+ArT+cr
+ JrQ
Total crude oil refining nongaseous products:
ArT = ArG + ArL + ArD + ArK + ArR + ArB
mr - Zr
ArL.
Equations
(la)
(2a)
(3a)
(9)
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Gross and net product yields:
NrQ = ArQ - CrQ
d. Material Balances by Assumption.
CrT = CrR
.CrS = 0
ArR = ArR + ArR + cr
ArS = ArS + ArS + ArS
NrR = ArR - CrR
NrS = ArS
e. Estimating Factors Assumed.
br=0.04ar.
Cr = 0.01 ar
dr = 0.125 a.,
er = 0.125 far - a(r-l)J
BrQ = 0.02 NrQ
CrT = 0.03 mr = CrR
DrQ = 0.125 ArQ, if r '~!1,
ErQ = 0.125 LArQ - A(r-l)QJ,
DOW 0.025 AiW,
ElW = O.lAlW
(12)
(19)
(20)
(21)
(22)
(23)
(24)-
(25)
if r ? 2 (26)
(27)
(28)
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DOK = 0.1 A1K,
(29)
E1K = 0.025 AlK
(30)
Zr = 0.09 mr., if r z 7
(31)
Zr =
0.102 mr, if r '?'8
(32)
f.
Formulations.*
(1)
Gasoline, Kerosine Category, Diesel Fuel.
ArP = YrPAiP (from Equation 7)
(33)
A(r-l)P = Y(r-1)P Alp (from Equation 7)
(34)
ArP - A(r-1)P = (YrP - Y(r-1)p) Alp
= (Krp - 1) Y(r-1)pAlp (from Equation 3)
(35)
Erp = 0.125 (ArP - A(r-1)P) (from Equation 26)
= 0.125 (Krp - 1) Y(r-1)PA1P
(36)
Brp = 0.02 Arp = 0.02 YrpAlp (from Equations 18, 23, (37)
and 33)
From Equations 2, 6, 33, 36, and 37:
ArP = YrPAiP = Brp + ErP - FrP + GrP + HrP + JrP
= L0.02 YrP + 0.125 (Krp - 1) Y(r_l)p J Alp - FrP
+Grp+HrP+JrP
LYrP - 0.02 YrP - 0.125 (Krp - 1) Y(r-1)PJ Alp
= J.98 Krp Y(r-1)P - 0.125 (KrP - 1) Y(r-1)PJ Alp,
= (0.125 + 0.855 Krp) Y(r-1)P A1p.
= Grp - FrP + HrP + JrP
r 2, except as otherwise noted.
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Arp = Grp - Frp + Hrp + JrP
(0.125 + 0.855 KrP Y(r-1) P
From Equations 7 and 38:
Alp = G8P - F8P + H8P + J8p
(0.125 + 0.855 K8P) (K7PK6PK5PK4PK3PK2P)
ArP = KrPA(r-l)P
(2) Ligroine.
From Equations la, 18, 23, and 28:
ArL = BrL + ErL + HrL
= 0.02 ArL + 0.121 (ArL - A(r-1)L) + HrL
= 0.855 ArL = HrL - 0.125A(r-l)L
ArL = HrL - 0.125A(r-l)L
0.855
AIL = BIL + EIL + HIL = 0.02 AIL + 0.1 AIL + HIL
0.88AIL = HIL
AIL = HIL
0.88
(3) Lubricants.
Assumption:
ArB = A r-1 B
mr m(r-1)
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(38)
(39)
(41)
(42)
(43)
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From Equations 6, 18, 23, 26, and 43:
ErB
= 0.125 (ArB - A(r-1)B)
= 0.125 - ArB m r-1
(ArB mr
= 0.125 rr - m(r-1) `4rB
mr
ArB = BrB + ErB - FrB + GrB + HrB + JrB
= 0.02ArB + 0.125 /mr - m r-1 ArB - FrB + GrB
mr
+HrB+JrB
GrB - FrB + HrB + JrB = 0.98 - 0.125 mr - m(r-1)
mr
ArB = ! GrB - FrB + HrB + JrB
0.855 mr. + 0.125 m(r-1
A8B G8B - F8B + H8B + J8B
0.855 m8 + 0.125 m-
ArB = A r-1 BIr
m(r-1)
A(r-l)B = ArBm r-1
mr.
(4) Residual and Other Products.
From Equations 10, 11, and 15:
ArR = mz. - ArG - ArL - ArD - ArK - Zr + ArR + cr
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(44)
(45)
(46)
(47)
(48)
(49)
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(5)
Summary of Formulations.
From Equations 4, 19, 20, and 22:
mr, br, Cr, er;
ar, fr, Sr
From Equations 39 and 40:
A1G, AlK, AID, ArG, ArK, ArD;
Given: F8P, G8P, H8P, J8P, KrP
From Equations 41 and 42
AIL, ArL;
Given: HrL
From Equations 46,,47, and 48:
ABB, ArB or A(r-1)B'
Given: F8B, G8B' 8B' J8B
From Equations 15, 31, 32, and 49:
ArR, 41 Zr
Given: ArR
From Equations 2a, 3a, and 16; check 10 and 11:
ArG, ArL, ArK, ArD, ArB;
Given: ArS, ArS
(6) Gasoline Kerosine Category, Diesel Fuel Alternate
Formulations .
From Equations 6, 7, and 26:
ArP= KrP A(r-1)P
Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
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A(r_1)p = rP
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ArP - A(r-1)P = KrP -.1 (Arp)
Krp
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Arp = BrP +
Erp - Frp +
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= (0. 02 + Krp ArP
KrP
- Frp + Grp + Hrp +
(0.98 - KrP 1 ArP = Grp - FrP + HrP + JrP
Krp
ArP = Grp - Frp + Hrp + JrP
0.98 - 0.125 Krp? - 1
KrP
Arp = G8p - F8p + H8P + J8P
0.98 - 0.125 K8P - 1
K8p
- 98 -
JrP
(50)
(37)
(51)
(52)
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r U
a
rn [
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N
JO
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S-E-C-R-E-T
APPENDIX C
WORLD STATUS OF THE USSR IN THE OUTPUT OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
Significant results may be developed by comparing derived Soviet
data with corresponding data for certain other areas. With respect
to petroleum product yields and yield potentials, comparisons with
similar data for the European Satellites, Western Europe, and the US
are useful.
Petroleum product yields in the European Satellites are covered
in a report now being prepared. 167 Annual petroleum product yields
in Western Europe for selected years from 1938 through 1953 are shown
in Table 32.* Corresponding Soviet data are shown in Tables 6 and
7,** and corresponding US data are shown in Tables 8 and 9.*** The
manufacture and consumption of petroleum products are similar in the
USSR and in the US: most of the indigenous petroleum product yields
are derived by crude oil refining; most of the indigenously derived
products are indigenously consumed; and most indigenous product con-
sumption is restricted to indigenously derived products. In Western
Europe, however, net petroleum product imports and indigenously
derived synthetic petroleum products are relatively important.
Although this report is not primarily concerned with the principal
petroleum product yield potentials which relate to the source material
potentials and installed processing facilities, installed processing
facilities are generally involved in the estimates of the actual product
yields. Therefore, a tentative summary of crude oil refining capacities
in the Free World and the Sino-Soviet Bloc in 1953 is shown in Table 33.)()()()(
The footnotes to the table indicate that the available information on the
refining facilities of the Sino-Soviet Bloc is at present incomplete and
preliminary, but the estimates are realistic enough for generalized
use in an analysis.
Table 32 follows on p. 120.
Pp. 27 and 29, respectively, above.
Pp. 32 and 34, respectively, above.
Table 33 follows on p. 121.
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
S-E-C-R-E-T
APPENDIX D
GAPS IN INTELLIGENCE
An over-all gap in intelligence exists with respect to petroleum
product yields in the USSR. This gap is the result of the lack of
any firm statistics which relate to the yields obtained since 1936.
The 1937 yields, moreover, are the latest that may be estimated by
extrapolation and still have indirect confirmation of a realistic
type in available Soviet source data.
Although it may be possible to extend the extrapolated yields
estimates through 1938 with some degree of certainty, and although
the captured 1941 State Plan may be used as a base for estimates of
the later yields through 1940 with some sort of logic, the gap in
intelligence is nearly complete for the subsequent period. The gap
is complete for yields obtained from the end of 1941 to the end of
World War II. In the series of link relatives published for the
postwar period, some of the link relatives are missing and others
are subject to interpretation at variance with the conclusions of
this report.
For the postwar yields there are major specific intelligence gaps
which limit the over-all applications of the methodology of this report.
The major specific intelligence gaps refer to the following data for
which there are no values or realistic estimates available.
1. Soviet yields of gasoline, kerosine, and diesel fuel in 1945?
2. Soviet postwar civil consumption in the category of residuals
and other products.
3. Soviet postwar civil consumption of lubricants -- this report
makes tentative use of certain estimates which are available.
4. Soviet postwar military consumption of petroleum products --
estimates of such consumption are available for 1953 only.
125 -
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5. Soviet postwar imports and exports of petroleum products --
estimates of these trade data are available as follows: imports,
1946-47; imports and exports, 1951-53-
Specific minor intelligence gaps also exist with respect to the
methodology of this report. The minor gaps refer to the present
lack of adequate intelligence directly relating to the following data:
1. Use of unrefined crude oil as a product.
2. Crude oil handling loss.
3. Crude oil storage increment.
4. Crude oil refining gas and loss.
5. Distribution losses in petroleum products.
6. Storage increments for the petroleum products.
7. Consumption of nongaseous petroleum products in processing
operations.
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S-E-C-R-E-T
APPENDIX E
SOURCE REFERENCES
Evaluations, following the classification entry and designated
"Eval.," have the following significance:
Doc. - Documentary
A - Completely reliable
B - Usually reliable
C - Fairly reliable
D - Not usually reliable
E. - Not reliable
F - Cannot be judged
1 - Confirmed by other sources
2 - Probably true
3 - Possibly true
4 - Doubtful
5 - Probably false
6 - Cannot be judged
"Documentary" refers to original documents of foreign governments
and organizations; copies of translations of such documents by a staff
officer; or information extracted from such documents by a staff
officer, all of which may carry the field "Documentary."
Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing on the
cited document; those designated "RR" are by the author of this
report. No "RR" evaluation is given when the author agrees with the
evaluation on the cited document.
1. CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.470), Petroleum Terminology,
31 May 55, p. 16-17. C-
2. Ibid., p. 24. C.
3. Ibid., p. 21-24. C.
4. Ibid., p. 7-8. C.
5. Ibid., p. 28. C.
6. Ibid., p. 25, 28. C.
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11, above), P. 138, 14o. U. Eval. Doc.
7. Ibid., p. 8-9. C.
8. Ibid., p. 10. C.
9. Ibid., p. 10-11. C.
10. A. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.192), Production of Natural
Gas and Natural-Gas Liquids in the USSR, 2 May 54, p. 1, 2,
and 6-9. SUS ONLY.
11. USSR, State Planning Commission. Socialist Construction
in the USSR: Statistical Abstract, Moscow, Soyuzorgouchet,
1941, p. 138. U. Eval. Doc. (hereafter referred to as USSR,
State Planning Commission. Socialist Construction)
12. Ibid.
Nekrasov, N. Planovoye khozyaystvo, no 1, 1938. U.
Eval. RR 1.
13. Nekrasov, ok. cit. (12, above).
14. USSR, State Planning Commission. Socialist Construction
16. Nekrasov, op. cit. (12, above .
17.
25X1A
18. RAND Corporation. RM-80 , A Dollar Index of Soviet Petroleum
Out 'Put, by A. Gerschenkron and N. Nimitz, Apr 52, p. -
25X1A and -9, info 1927-28 to 1937. U. Eval. RR 1.
19.
25X1A
20. RAND Corporation. RM-8O' (18, above).
21. Ibid.
USSR, State Planning Commission. Socialist Construction
(11, above), P. 138, 140. U. Eval. Doc.
Nekrasov, op. cit. (12, above).
CIA. CIA RR RA ORR Project 25.192 (10, above), p. 3.
SUS ONLY.
25X1A
22. Nekrasov, op. cit. (12, above).
Lisichkin, S. Pravda, 17 Dec 40. U. Eval. RR 2.
25X1A
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25X1A
25X1A to as Vorpos
USSR. Vo ros ekonomiki zheleznodorozhnogo trans orta:
sbornik statey (The Problems of the Economics of Rail
Transport: A Collection of Articles), Transzheldorizdat,
1948, CIA N/5 755?V95? U. Eval. RR 2. (hereafter referred
Neftepromyslovoye khozyaystvo (Economy of ttte Eletroieum
Industry, Gostoptekhizdat, 1952. U)
Neftyanoye khozyaystvo, no 4, 1947- U. Eval. RR 2.
23. USSR, State Planning Commission. The Second Five Year Plan
for the Development of the National Economy of the USSR,
Moscow, Cooperative Publishing Society of Foreign Workers
in the USSR, 1936. U. Eval. Doc (hereafter referred to as
The Second Five Year Plan).
24. USSR, State Planning Commission. Socialist Construction
(11. above).
25X1 C 25.
26. USSR, State Planning Commission. The Second Five Yea-r-Pla--n-
(23, above).
27. Molotov, V. The Third Five Year Plan for the National
Economic Development of the USSR, Moscow, Foreign Languages
Publishing House, 1939. U. Eval. Doc.
28. CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.192) (10, above), p. 3.
S/US ONLY. 25X1 A /n ^
29. Ibid., p. 26-35. S/US ONLY.
31.
32. Struth, H.J., ed. Petroleum Data Book, 2d edn, Dallas,
Petroleum Engineer Publishing Co., 1948, p. A-28, A-29.
U. Eval. RR 3 for foreign product yields and RR 1 for
25X1 C
34. Rabinovich, G.G. Rating of Petroleum Refining Apparatus,
Moscow and Leningrad, Gostoptekhizdat, 1941. U. Eval. RR 6.
(tr by Air, AFOIN, 20 Aug 53)
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25X1A
25X1A
35. Neftyanoye khozyaystvo, no 1, 1939. U. Eval. RR 6.
36. Ibid., no 2, 1948, U. Eval. Doc.
37. Ibid.
STATSPEC
Joint Committee on Slavic Studies. Current Digest of the
Soviet Press, vol 1, no 4, 2 Feb 48. U. Eval. Doc.
39. Pravda, 1 Jan 50. U. Eval. Doc.
Joint Committee on Slavic Studies. Current Digest of the
Soviet Press, vol 2, no 4, 13 Mar 50. U. Eval. Doc.
40. Izvestiya, 27 Jan 51. U. Eval. Doc.
Joint Committee on Slavic Studies. Current Digest of the
Soviet Press, vol 3, no 3, 3 Mar 51. U. Eval. Doc.
41. Izvestiya, 29 Jan 52. U. Eval. Doc.
State, Moscow, Joint Press Reading Service. Moscow Daily
Press Review, no 29, sec B, 29 Jan 52. U. Eval. Doc.
42. Pravda, 23 Jan 53. U. Eval. Doc.
State, Moscow, Joint Press Reading Service. Moscow Daily
Press Review, no 32, sec B, 23 Jan 53. U. Eval. Doc.
43. Planovoye khozyaystvo, no 1, 1954. U. Eval. Doc.
State, Moscow, Joint Press Reading Service. Moscow Daily
Press Review, no 35, sec B, 4 Feb 54. U. Eval. Doc.
44. Izvestiya, 21 Jan 55. U. Eval. Doc.
Joint Committee on Slavic Studies. Current Digest of the
Soviet Press, vol 7, no 2, 23 Feb 55. U. Eval. Doc.
45. CIA. CIA/ff-PR-17 (I-D), Survey of Possibilities and
Potentials in Future Petroleum Refining in the USSR,
22 Sep 52, p. 145-17T, 170, 202-203. S.
46. CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.186), Civil Consumption
Pravda. 18 Jan 48
38. Pravda Ukrainy, 20 Jan 9. U. Eval. Doc.
51.
52. CIA. CIA RR RA (ORR Project 25.186) (46, above).
of Petroleum Products in the USSR, 1945-55, 27 Sep 5+,
p. 3. SUS ONLY.
CIA. CIA/RR (ORR Project 25.186) (46, above).
50. CIA. CIA RR PR-17 (I-D) 4 above D. 202-203. S.
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53. CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.192) (10, above), p. 4.
S/US ONLY.
54. CIA. CIA/RR IP-373, The Economy of Communist China through
the Five Year Plan, 5 Nov 54. S.
55? CIA. CIA RR IP-385, Soviet Capabilities and Probable Soviet
Courses of Action, 197O, 7 Mar 55. S.
above).
56. CIA. CIA RR IP-373 5 19
CIA. CIA/RR PR-119, Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to the
25X1A
West, 1950-54, 29 Jul 55
57.
58. CIA. CIA/RR IP-385 (55, above).
59? CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.192) (10, above), p. 4.
S/US ONLY.
60. USSR Embassy, Washington. "Oil Workers Fulfill Five Year
Plan Ahead of Schedule," by N. Baibakov, Information
Bulletin, 12 Jan 51. U. Eval. Doc.
61. CIA. CIA/RR PR-17 (I-C), Refining of Petroleum in the USSR,
27 Jun 52, p. 21-23, 31, 56-57- S.
62. Ibid., p. 6-7, 12-23, 27-35, 49-53, 57-59, 67-71; annex, p. 4-10,
X33. S.
63. Ibid.
64. Struth, op. cit. (35, above).
65. Ibid.
66. CIA. CIA/RR PR-17 (I-D) (45, above).
67. Ibid.
68. Ibid.
69.
25X1A
70. CIA. CIA RR RA ORR Project 25.195), Petroleum Refineries in
the Soviet Bloc, Sep 54, p. 4. S/US ONLY.
CIA. CIA RR PR-17 (I-D) (45, above).
71. CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.186) (46, above).
72. CIA. FDD U-5349, 23 Dec 53. U/OFF USE. Eval. RR 3. (tr from
.Za ekonomiyu topliva, no 11, 1949. U)
Za ekonomiyu topliva, no 1, 1951. U. Eval. RR 3.
73. Struth, op. cit. (32, above)
Interior, US Bureau of Mines. Minerals Yearbook, 1950
(and preprints of chapters on petroleum for later years).
U. Eval. RR 1.
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American Petroleum Institute. Petroleum Facts and Figures,
no 9, 1950. U. Eval. RR 1.
Ibid., no 10, 1952. U. Eval. RR 1.
Ibid., no 11, 1954. U. Eval. RR 1.
American Petroleum Institute and American Natural Gas
Association. Proved Reserves of Crude Oil, Natural Gas
Liquids, and Natural Gas, vol 1, 31 Dec 46, vol 9, 31 Dec 54.
U. Eval. RR 2.
74. CIA. CIA RR RA ORR Pro ect 2 .4 0 1 above). . 1 -20. C.
75-
76. CIA. CIA/RR RA ORR Project 25.192) (10, above), p. 5.
SUS ONLY.
77. CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.470) (1, above), p. 7-9. C-
78. CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.194), Statistical Analysis
of Petroleum Production in the Soviet Bloc, 2 Jan 55,
p. 7. SUS ONLY.
79. RAND Corporation. RM-8o4 (18, above).
USSR, State Planning Commission. Socialist Construction
(11, above), p. 138, 140. U. Eval. Doc.
80. Struth, off. cit. (32, above).
NIS 26, USSR, Supplement V, "Petroleum," Oct 52, p. 6-6. S.
81. RAND Corporation. RM-8o4 (18, above).
USSR, State Planning Commission. Socialist Construction
(11, above), p. 138, 140. U. Eval. Doc.
82. USSR, State Planning Commission. The Second Five Year Plan
(23, above).
83. USSR, State Planning Commission. Socialist Construction
(11, above), p. 140. U. Eval. Doc.
84. CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.192) (10, above), p. 3.
SUS ONLY.
RAND Corporation. RM-8o4 (18, above).
USSR, State Planning Commission. Socialist Construction
(11, above), p. 138, 140. U. Eval. Doc.
85. CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.192) (10, above), p. 3.
SUS ONLY.
86. RAND Corporation. RM-8o4 (18, above).
USSR, State Planning Commission. Socialist Construction
(11, above), p. 138, 140. U. Eval. Doc.
87. CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.192) (10, above), p. 3.
SUS ONLY.
RAND Corporation. RM-8o4 (18, above).
USSR, State Planning Commission. Socialist Construction
(il, above), p. 138, 140. U. Eval. Doc.
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25X1A
25X1A
25X1A
104.
105. CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORE Project 25.186) (46, above).
106. Ibid.
107. Ibid.
108. Ibid.
109. CIA. ORR Project 10.400 (EIC-P-6), Economic Capabilities of
the Soviet Bloc to Support a General War under Certain
Assum tions. (to be published). S.
110. CIA. CIA RR IP-385 (55, above). 25X1 A
111. NIS 26 (80, above).
112.
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88. CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.192) (10, above), p. 3.
89.
90.
96.
S/US ONLY.
RAND Corporation.
RM-804 (18, above).
25X1A
RAND Corporation.
RM-804 (18, above).
(11, above), p. 141-142. U. Eval. Doc.
95. Nekrasov, op. ci
94.
91.
92.
93? USSR, State Planning Commission. Socialist Construction
97.
98.
25X1A
99. Kozhevnikov, A.V. GIZ Nauchna a Literatura, Tartu,
Estonia, vols 1, 2, and 3, 1947- U. Eval. RR 2.
100. Krumin, P. Review of the Estonian Oil Shale Industry,
with a Brief Account of Oil.Shale Development in the
United States Ohio State University Studies, Engineering
Series, vol ltd, no 6, Nov 49. U. Eval. RR. 2. (hereafter
referred to as Review)
Krumin, P. "The Oil Shale Industry of Estonia," The
Economist, Riga, Latvia, no 8, 1940. U. Eval. RR 2.
101. Krumin, P. Review (100, above).
102. CIA. CIA/RR RA ORR Project 25.470) (1, above), p. 31-45o C.
103.
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113. CIA. CIA/RR IP-373 (54, above).
114. Ibid.
118.
119.
120.
25X1 C
25X1A
25X1A
oject 25.195) (70, above), p. 7.
CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.195) (70, above
S/US ONLY.
123.
Sovetskaya Estoniya, 30 Jan 51.
U.
124.
Ibid., 15 Jan 50. U. Eval. Doc.
125.
Ibid., 26 Jan 49. U. Eval. Doc.
126.
Ibid., 16 Jan 48. U. Eval. Doc.
127.
Ibid., 18 Dec 46. U. Eval. Doc.
128.
Ibid.
129.
Kutt, op. cit. (118, above).
130.
Ibid.
131.
Ibid.
132.
Ibid.
133.
Sovetskaya Estoniya, 18 Apr 51.
U.
134.
Kozhevnikov, oP. cit. (99, above).
135.
Kutt, 22. cit. above).
136.
Ibid.
137.
Ibid.
138.
CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.192)
S/US ONLY.
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25X1A
(10, above), p. 4.
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US ONLY.
25X1A
17G. 1-1.1. vtra/ au. .~,.. -1 %- , ? - ,
153. Groznenskiy neftyanik, no 1, 1937. U. Eval. RR 6.
154. CIA. FDD U-53+9 (72, above).
155. CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.192) (10, above), p. 3-4.
S/US ONLY.
156. Lisichkin) 21. cit. (22, above).
157. Neftyanoye khozyaystvo, no 4, 1947.. U. Eval. RR 2.
158. Ibid.
159. Nekrasov, op. cit. (12, above).
160. Vannikov, N.V. "Certain Questions in Regard to the Technological
Problem of the Main Administration for Petroleum Marketing,"
Neft ana a pro shlennost'SSSR, vol. 10, no 5 nd. U.
25X1 A Eva1. RR (tr of Air, AFOIN, 25 Aug 53 . U
161. CIA. FDD U-2164, 18 Jul 52. R. Eval. RR 3. (tr of Planoyoye
khozyaystvo, no 2, 1939? U)
S-E-C-R-E-T
149.
148. 7,;Pchkin, oA. cit. (22, above).
143. Ibid.
.144. Ibid.
145. Ibid.
146. Ibid.
147 Ibid.
139. Zapovnyy, P. "Gazifikatsiya gorodov na baze zhidkovo gaza"
(Gasification of Cities on the Basis of Use of Liquefied
Gases), Zhilishchno-kommunal'noye khozyaystvo, no 6, Jun 54.
U. Eval. RR 3-
140. CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.192) (10, above), p. 3?
SUS ONLY.
141. Ibid.
142. Nekrasov, op. cit. (12, above), p. 12. U. Eval. RR 2.
25X1A
150. Lisichkin, op. cit. (22, above).
151. CIA. CIA/RR PR 17 (I-C) (61, above), p. 18-20, 59, 67-71,
Annex. S.
CIA. CIA/RR PR 17 (I-D) (45, above).
CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.195) (70, above), p. 4-5,
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO01000130001-3
co or
25X1A
162.
CIA. FDD U-2199, 23 Jul 52. R. Eval. RR 3.
163. CIA. FDD U-2199 (162, above).
164. Interior, Petroleum Administration for Defense. Transportation
of Oil, Dec 51, p. 58-60. U. Eval. RR 1.
165. CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.186) (46, above).
166. CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.192) (10, above), p. 4.
SUS ONLY.
167. CIA. ORR Project 25.675, Output of Refined Petroleum
Products in the European Satellites and Communist China
(to be published). S/NOFORN.
169.
25X1A
170. CIA. CIA/RR RA (ORR Project 25.195) (70, above), p. 4-5
and 8-13. S/US ONLY.
171. CIA. CIA/RR PR-1' (I-C) (61, above).
172. Interior, US Bureau of Mines. "Petroleum Refineries,
including Cracking Plants, in the United States,
1 January 1953," by J.G. Kirby, US Bureau of Mines
Information Circular, no 7667, 1953? U. Eval. RR 1.
173. "Report on United States Operating Refineries," Oil and Gas
Journal, vol 51, no 46, 23 Mar 53, p. 312-330. U. Eval. RR 1.
174. Interior, Petroleum Administration for Defense. Summary Report
of 1953 Survey of Foreign Refining Capacities, 31 Aug 53.
C. Eval. RR 2.
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