THE SIGNIFICANCE OF RECENT CHANGES IN THE SIZE OF THE AGRICULTURAL LABOR FORCE IN THE USSR 1951-55

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• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01093A001000050001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 46
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 6, 1999
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 28, 1955
• Content Type: IR

~Aepprc~~r~?r-MR?I~as~~~ 19'99/09/~~ : ~~1~4-F~DP7.9-01 ~93r4(~t~1~Qa~74~Q001 2
PROVISIONAL INTELLIGENCEm REPORT
__
_ .~.
TIDE ~~~NIFICANC
W.
CAF RECEN ........ ~ .~_:
T C~~'NGES IN THE SYZE
.U~ ,THE .~.GRICULTURI~L LABOR_ FORCE
....: ~.
.- ~w ~:-
THE rtJSSR
:. .~.:~ . 1951.- 55
C1A/RR PR-127.,
"~8 November 1955
ELLIOEN E ~ AG CY
CENTRAL .INT. ~~
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REpORT5
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aRrri~rrt~
T;~is material contains information a,ffectir,:~
tYr;n National Defense of the United States
w;:tliin the. meaning of the esfsionage laws,
1"itle 18, USa~, Secs. '793 and 794, the trans-
an9ssion or revelation of which in any manner
to an uxzauthox~ized person is prohibit>yti bq law.
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PROVISIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF RECENT CHANGES
IN THE SIZE OF THE AGRICUL'T`URAL LABOR FORCE
IN THE USSR
1951-55
CIA~RR PR-127
(ORR Project 45.5-9)
The data and conclusions contained in this report
do not necessarily represent the final position of
ORR and should be regarded as provisional only and
subject to revision. Comments and data which may
be available to the user are solicited.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
,,.....
-C -'"~T
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S-E -C -R-E-T
FOREWORD
This report analyzes the significance of permanent and part-time
agricultural employment in the USSR for the development of the national
economy. The periods covered in the text are the agricultural seasons
of 1951 and 1953 through 1955. Revisions of previously published esti-
mates for 1938 and 1851 are explained in Appendix A.
Trends in the distribution of agricultural labor are basic to the
report. In addition, the report indicates the significance of the
recent expansions which have taken place in agriculture at the same
time that pressure is maintained heavily by Soviet planners to continue
rapid industrial progress in the cities. These trends have apparently
resulted in a short-supply labor market in the USSR as a whole. The
forecast is made that under these conditions closer coordination be-
tween agricultural and nonagricultural ministries and organizations
will be achieved in the allocation of lab or and that increased inter-
mingling of agricultural and nonagricultural labor will take place in
the form of increased seasonal labor participation.
The methodology of this report starts with the revised estimates
of the Soviet agricultural labor force for 1951. These estimates
are based on labor input requirements per hectare and per animal in
agriculture, adjusted for the influence of mechanization and for esti-
mated inputs in farm administration and other overhead expenditures
of labor inputs. These are projected to 1953 on the theory that the
amount of lab or saved by increased mechanization since 1951 does not
exceed 300,000 workers. Increments of workers are then added to the
1953 distribution for the 195+ and 1855 agricultural seasons on the
basis of plan results official speeches and estimates of labor re-
quired .for the recent and planned agricultural expansions as suggested
by official Soviet data and official Soviet scientific agricultural
reports.
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CONTENTS
Summary
I. Introduction
3
II. Changes in the Size of the Permanent Agricultural
~
Labor Force
1951 to 1953
A
6
.
B. 195+ and 1955. .
8
III. Changes in the Size of the Part-Time Agricultural
Labor Force
14
A. Part-Time Employment of Village-Urban Workers
15
B. Labor on Family Plots
19
IV. Problems of Manpower Allocation
20
2
V. Capabilities, Vulnerabilities, and Intentions
2
Appendixes
Appendix A.
Methodology
27
Appendix B.
Gaps in Intelligence
37
Appendix C.
Source References
39
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Tables
1. Estimated Growth of the Permanent Agricultural Labor
Force in the USSR, by Type of Worker, 1951 and
1953-55 4
2. Estimated Changes in the Participation of Village-
Urban Workers in Part-Time Work in Socialist
Agriculture in the USSR, by Type of Farm,
1938, 1951, and 1953-5~+ 16
3. Estimated Growth of the Labor Force in the USSR,
by Type of Worker, 1951 and 1953-54 20
~+. Estimated Distribution of the Permanent Agricultural
Labor Force in the USSR, by Sector, 1938 and 1951
(Revised and 1953 (Unadjusted) 28
5. Revised Estimated Distribution of Ma,n-Day Inputs
in Part-Time Agricultural Labor in the USSR,
by Sector, 1938, 1951, and 1953 31
6. Estimated Growth of the Part-Time Agricultural Labor
Force in the USSR, by Sector and by Type of Worker,
1938 1951, and 1953-54 32
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CIA/RR PR-127 S-E-C-R-E-T
(ORR Project 45.549)
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF RECENT' CIiANGES
IN THE SIZE OF THE AGRICULTURAL I~B OR FORCE
IN THE USSR
1951-55
Summary
The number of permanent farm workers (as distinct from part-time
farm workers) in Soviet agriculture is estimated to have increased
at an average annual rate of about 1 million new workers per year
from 1951 through 1954. About 1.5 million new workers probably will
be added during 1955. The following tabulation shows the estimated
growth of permanent agricultural employment from 1951 through 1955:
Sector
1951
1955
Kolkhoz
48.2
49.6
Machine Tractor Station
0.6
2.7
Sovkhoz
2.0
2.8
Total 50.8 55.1
It is further estimated that the participation of workers from village-
urban areas in part-time employment in socialized agriculture is in-
creasing. Nearly 4.8 million of these persons participated in social-
ized agriculture in 1951, and about 7.7 million in 1954.
This growth in Soviet agricultural employment appears to have
aggravated problems concerning the distribution of workers through-
out the total economy. The assignment of 1 million to 1.5 million
of the new workers reaching working age in rural areas to work in
agriculture could, of course, be easily accomplished inasmuch as
the rural population contributes about 1.4 million new workers to
the potential total labor force each year. There has been strong
pressure, however, during the period of the Fifth Five Year Plan
(1951-55) to increase employment in urban industry at an average
annual rate of about 1.3 million a year. Many of these workers un-
doubtedly come from rural backgrounds.
~ The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent
the best judgment of ORR as of 1 September 1955?
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Three new agricultural developments will create difficulties in
the distribution of workers, unless the number of new workers re-
quired in agriculture can be quickly leveled off. The first of these
is the expansion of small grain sowings in the "new lands" to about
30 million hectares by the spring of 1956. A second development is
the expansion of corn sowings, principally in the older established
agricultural areas, by about 30 million hectares by 1960. More than
half the expansion of new grain and about half that of the new corn
sowings have been accomplished in 1955. At the same time, the num-
ber of hectares planted to labor-consuming crops (such as potatoes
and technical crops) and the number of livestock (especially cows
and swine, which are also labor-consuming) have increased and will
continue to increase. Substitution undoubtedly will be made of
grain hectares in the "new lands" for grain hectares in the old.
This substitution will make it possible to expand corn cultivation
on the small grain lands of the old areas. The net effect by 1960,
however, probably will be large increases in field and animal hus-
bandry. The third development is a result of the other two and
consists of the construction of new facilities and homes for the
additional workers who will be required to carry out these agri-
cultural expansions. Although it is difficult at this time to
define the extent of this development, there are definite indica-
tions that large numbers of construction workers are expected to
be employed in agriculture.
If these plans for increased sowings and accelerated construc-
tion are to be implemented in the immediate future, it would seem
inevitable that the rural areas would not be, for several years,
a source of supply for workers for urban industries. It is possible,
furthermore, that at least some of the gains which have been made
in urban employment may be diverted to employment in industries
which are expanding their operations in serving agriculture., This
diversion would be especially significant in the ministries and
enterprises concerned with construction, transport, and procurement.
In conjunction with the drying up of the farm labor pools as
sources for urban industrial expansion, there is a further develop-
ment in population growth which may in the near future begin to place
more pressure on Soviet planners to solve the problem of manpower
management. This is the fact that the annual increments of potentially
employable persons entering the 15 to 59 age group will soon be
smaller because of the detrimental effects of World War II on the
war-year birth rates, infant survival rates, and survival rates in
general.
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Apparently Soviet planners have tapped two otter sources of labor
for civilian employment. The forced labor camps have been called on
to release 1 million to 2 million forced laborers (estimated) since
the spring of 1953? In August 1955 the military services were in-
structed to demobilize 640,000 men. Nevertheless, it is doubtful
that these increments alone will solve all the prospective problems
of manpower management. Unless current levels of labor productivity
are improved, or unless substantially greater n~.unbers of employable
persons are transferred from military service or from forced labor
to the civil labor force, it is likely that manpower shortages will
limit the ability of the Soviet economy to continue its current rate
of expansion of production.
The purpose of this report is to analyze changes occurring in
the distribution of workers in the Soviet agricultural labor force
which occurred from 1951 through 1955. Previous estimates of the
size and distribution of the agricultural labor force in the USSR l~~
for 1938~-~ and 1951 are revised in Appendix A.
This report examines trends in the growth of two broad categories
of agricultural workers. The first category consists of kolkhozniki
(collective farmers) and workers and employees permanently assigned
to agriculture; the second category consists of part-time workers
recruited for seasonal labor in agriculture from village and urban
areas. The term "permanent workers" has been adopted rather than
"full-time workers" and refers to workers permanently assigned to
the Machine Tractor Stations (MTS's) and to the sovkhoz (state farm)
and kolkhoz (collective farm staffs. When the term refers to kol-
khozniki, it includes youths from 12 to 15 years of age who work
seasonally on the kolkhozes.
~ For serially numbered source references, see Appendix C.
-~~ All references to Soviet agriculture in 1938 are on the basis
of postwar boundaries unless otherwise indicated.
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II. Changes in the Size of the Permanent Agricultural Labor Force.
The data for study of the trends in the size of the permanent
agricultural labor force in the USSR in 1851 and 1953-55 are given
in. Table 1. Two methods were used in developing the estimates.*
Estimated Growth of the Permanent Agricultural Labor Force
in the USSR, by Type of Worker a/
1951 and 1953-55 b/
Type of Worker 1951 1953 195+ 1955
Kolkhoz x+8,168 48, 5~+9 ~+8, 6~+9 4g, 6~+9
Machine Tractor Station 61~+ 2,062 2,3b2 2,662
Sovkhoz 1,966 2,028 2,628 2,828
Total 50, 7~+8 52, 639 531639 55,139
a. The figures given here differ from previous estimates 2 in two
respects. Only the labor contributed b y permanent workers in agri-
culture is considered in this table. (The labor of part-time workers
in agriculture is estimated in Table 2, p. i6~below.) Additional in-
formation has also made possible a better estimate of MTS labor for
1951, and the improvement is reflected in the other years in this table.
Details in methodology and adjustments of data are given in Appendix A.
b. As of the end of the year there are complications in using these
data as end-of-the-year figures. Nevertheless, such use probably is
better than as mid-year data. Although the numbers of MTS workers and
employees are actually annual averages, variation from month to month
is negligible. 3/ The numbers of Sovkhoz workers and employees are
also annual averages and probably include a small amount of seasonal
labor. (See p. 17, below, on the problem of sovkhoz seasonal labor.)
The number of kolkhozniki for a given year consists of all kolkhoz mem-
bers who earned labor-day credits in. kolkhoz labor during the year.
Although the range of seasonal variation in kolkhoz employment of these
workers is very great, many of those who are not working for the kolk-
hoz at a particular time may be working in socialist agriculture or in
other branches of the economy. The. annual average of kolkhozniki work-
ing on the kolkhoz in 1938 has been estimated to have been about 26.x+
million workers, with peak employment occurring in August (about
~ Continued on p. 5.
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Table 1
Estimated Growth of the Permanent Agricultural Labor Force
in the USSR, by Type of Worker a/
1951 and 1953-55 b/
(Continued)
3 million and trough employment in January about 1 .3 million _
During the important agricultural seasons of the year, about 4.7 mil-
lion kolkhozniki are estimated to have worked in seasonal employment
for the Machine Tractor Stations and the sovkhozes in 1938. (See Table 2,
p. 16, below, for discussion of seasonal labor). As many as ZI- million
kolkhozniki may also be employed as part-time workers outside the
kolkhozes in construction, fishing, road work, and other enterprises. 5/
As many as 60 to 65 percent of the kolkhozniki probably-are women and
must spend part of their employable time maintaining their own house-
holds. 6/ The low level of employment of kolkhozniki on the kolkhozes
in January undoubtedly is .related to the fact that kolkhozniki prob-
ably must expend great amounts of labor on the problem of the physical
maintenance of their homes to survive the inclement Soviet winters.
Such work would include wood-cutting and fuel-collection for heating
and cooking, struggling with snows and poor roads, maintaining ade-
gU.ate water supply, and similar activities not rewarded with wage
credits from the kolkhoz. The kolkhozniki are also occupied with
their own family plots, averaging probably from 40 to 50 days per
person per year on the cultivation of plots and the care of live-
stock. 7/ In addition, they must market their private produce. It
has been reported that about 500,000 kolkhozniki are daily involved
in the marketing of their private agricultural products on the
kolkhoz (free) market. 8/ The best methodological procedure, under
these conditions, appears to be to use the figures in this table as
end-of-the-year-data, on the assumption that the workers are full-
time workers assigned to agriculture as their major occupation.
For the 1951 and 1953 agricultural seasons, the estimated number of
workers was derived b y applying the 1938 man-year rates to labor
inputs on the kolkhozes, sovkhozes, and Machine Tractor Stations.
For the 195+ and 1955 agricultural seasons the estimate of the number
~ These rates are as follows: ?kolkhozniki in socialist production,
130.1 man-days per year (revised); MTS workers and employees, 231.1
man-days per year; and sovkhoz workers and employees, 288 man-days per
year. 9/
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of workers was derived by adding the increments of workers, as given
in Soviet reports, cumulatively to the 1953 worker distribution.
A. 1951 to 1953?
As shown in Table 1, the total Soviet agricultural labor force
in 1951 numbered 50,748,000 workers. Of this number, 48,168,000 or
about 95 percent, were kolkhozniki,-~ who earned labor-day wage credits;
almost 2 million*~ were sovkhoz workers and employees; and about
600,000~~~--~ were permanent workers and employees of the Machine Tractor
Stations.
~ This number is slightly higher than the previously published
estimate of 48,080,000. 10~ See pp. 28-29, below,for discus :,ion of
the revision.
~~ The "labor-da,y," or trudoden (singular), is a unit value credit
for work done on the kolkhoz. 11 It is related to norm-fulfillment
in work operations. In planning the year's work, MTS and .kolkhoz
officials, on the advice of officials in rayon and Oblast offices,
establish a standard amount of work to be done per shift as the
norm. 12~ Thus, for fulfilling the daily norm in plowing, the tractor
driver of the Stalinets-80 tractor receives 7 trudodni credits. 13~
In its wider application the trudoden is used to establish a scale of
values for different types of work operations for variously qualified
workers. It obscures money wage values and permits easy bureaucratic
determination of labor value. It also is used as an accounting device
for the distribution of the kolkhoz net production among its workers
after deductions from the gross production have been made, such as
obligatory deliveries to the state, payments to the Machine Tractor
Stations for machine work, and contributions to the indivisible funds
(for investment) of the kolkhozes. 14~ Losses in production due to
adversities of weather, to mismanagement, or to lack of kolkhoznik
interest in kolkhoz production are intended to fall most heavily on
the kolkhozniki rather than on the state, the Machine Tractor Station,
or the kolkhoz.
*~'~ It was not necessary to revise this figure. See Table 4, p. 28,
below.
~~~~ The previously published estimate was almost 1 million permanent
workers and employees of the Machine Tractor Stations. See Table 4,
p. 2$, below.
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By the end of 1953 the total number of permanent workers in
Soviet agriculture was 52,639,000, an apparent increase of almost
2 million workers. The permanent workers on the kolkhoz staff in
1953 numbered 48,549,000, an increase of slightly less than 400,000.
The number of sovkhoz workers and employees remained at about 2
million, showing only a slight increase. The greatest growth oc-
curred among the MTS employees. These workers more than tripled in
number, increasing by about 1.4 million from the end of 1951 to the
end of 1953?
The most significant increase in the number of MTS workers
took place as a result of a decree by the September 1953 Plenum of
the Communist Party of the USSR. 17~ Large numbers of kolkhoznik
machine operators (who formerly worked seasonally for the Machine
Tractor Stations), numerous agricultural specialists who were ad-
ministrators in the higher agricultural organs, and other workers
and employees from industry and other branches of the economy were
ordered transferred to the MTS staff as permanent MTS workers and
employees. These transfers around the end of 1953 included
(1) 1,250,000 kolkhozniki who were added to the permanent MTS
staffs, 18~ (2) 104,700 agronomists and zootechnicians who were for-
merly employed in Oblast directorates and rayon offices of the
Ministry of Agriculture and were recently sent to.work on the kol-
khozes,~~ (3) about 23,000 ITR personnel (engineer-technical workers
-~ Recent Soviet statements suggest that the contribution of the
Machine Tractor Stations to the mechanization of Soviet agriculture
has been of such magnitude that 21.9 million fewer permanent agri-
cultural workers were needed in 1953 than at the beginning of col-
lectivization. 15~ If 1928 is taken as the "beginning of collec-
tivization," and if all types of agricultural workers are counted
(including 1.7 million in state agriculture, 1 million on the kol-
khozes, and 71.8 million private peasants , a total of about 74.5
million farm workers is obtained. 16 If the 21.9 million workers
allegedly "saved" are subtracted from this figure, 52.6 million farm
workers will remain, or approximately the same number as estimated above.
~-~ At the September 1953 Plenum it was reported that there were about
350,000 agricultural specialists in the agricultural organizations. 19~
Since the Plenum, there have been government-wide attempts to reduce
the number of administrative employees and direct them into productive
work. By this method the Party hopes to increase labor productivity
in various branches of the national economy. 20~ In this report the
104,700 agronomists and zootechnicians are carried on the MTS staff,
as the practice, as Soviet reports indicate, was the rule. Since the
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with middle or higher educational training) sent from industry to the
Machine Tractor Stations to manage the stations and the station work-
shops and repair activities, 22~ and (~+) about 50,000 mechanizers
(mechanics and machine operators) from industry to work in the Machine
Tractor Stations. 23~ Other inter?nal reorganizations included the
addition of about 200,000 Komsomol- members as managers of kolkhoz
livestock fermy,-~-~ the sending of about 50,000 party workers to work
in village centers to oversee MTS operations, 25~ and the delegation
of trade union groups to local areas to increase trade union member-
ship in agriculture. 26~
If the September 1953 Plenum and the resultant redistribution
of workers had not occurred, it is estimated that the kolkhoz staff
would have totaled 49,699,000 kolkhozniki earning labor days, the MTS
staff would have included 634,000 workers and employees, and the
sovkhoz staff would have included 2,028,000 workers and employees.
Total agricultural employment would have been 52,361,000 permanent
workers. The transfers, however, reduced the kolkhoz staff to
48,549,000 kolkhozniki and increased the MTS staff to 2,062,000 per-
manent workers, although apparently not affecting sovkhoz employment.
At the September Plenum in 1953 it was reported that the number of
sovkhozes was 4,700, 27~ or 160 more than at the beginning of 1950. 28~
The total number of permanent workers was increased to 52,639,000
permanent agricultural workers, as shown in Table 1.*~~
B. 1954 and 1955?
The annual rate of increase of about 1 million full-time farm
workers which apparently accurred from 1951 to 1953 is estimated in
Table 1~~~ to have continued through 1954, bringing the total number
up to 53.6 million full-time agricultural workers at the end of the
September Plenum, however, these specialists are hired b y Oblast ad-
ministrations, with authority commensurate with that of MTS directors.
They may now be regarded as being part of the kolkhoz staff. 21~
~ (Vsesoyuznyy Leninskiy) Kommunisticheskiy Soyuz Molodezhi --
(All-Union Lenin) Communist League of Youth.
~~ A ferma (singular) is a livestock section or enterprise to whicYl
a small brigade of workers is attached. Each kolkhoz is expected to
have at least four of these enterprises. 24~
~~ P . 4, above .
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year. This estimated increase would seem conservative in view of the
sizable increases in sown hectares and in livestock herds which also
occurred during 195+. Plan results 29/ show that the seeding of summer
cereal crops expanded 7.2 million hectares during 195+; of winter
grain crops, 1.2 million hectares; and of ether more heavily labor-
consuming crops, about 3.6 million hectares (including cotton, sugar
beets, oil crops, potatoes, vegetables and cucurbits, silage crops,
and feed roots . The number of hectares in perennial grasses de-
clined~ to accommodate the expansion of grain hectares, principally
in the older agricultural areas of the USSR -- only 3.6 million grain
hectares were sown in the "new lands" of Kazakhstan and Siberia. 30/
The total expansion in winter and summer crops under harvest during
195+ was apparently 8.9 million hectares. 31/ In addition, the total
number of cattle increased (1 October 1953 to 1 October 1954) 1.9
million head, including 1.5 million cows; of swine, 3.4 million head;
and of sheep, 2.6 million head.
The increase of 1 million new workers required for these agri-
cultural expansions would seem to be a conservative estimate in view
of a recent report 32/ which states that the workload of plowland in
low man-land ratio areas, such as Kazakhstan and Altayskiy Kray, may
be in the vicinity of 13 to 15 hectares per able-bodied kolkhoznik,
compared with a workload in high man-land ratio areas of 2 to 3 hec-
tares per kolkhoznik prevailing in the Ukraine and in Belorussia.
Although the terms of this comparison may be lacking (in definition
as to length of time worked per kolkhoznik , such a comparison sug-
gests that at least 1 million new workers were required in 1954.
It is estimated that 90 percent of this increase went into
state agriculture. Plan fulfillment reports for midyear 1954 33/
and for the end of the year 34/ indicate that as many as 900,000
new workers and employees may have entered state agriculture during
1954. The addition of these to the state agricultural labor force
thus increased the total from 4.1 million in 1953 to almost 5 million
in 195-.
On the basis of the rate of work operations achieved by MTS
workers in 1953, it is estimated that 300,000 workers and employees
were added to the MTS staffs. It is probable that in 1953 the MTS
~ The area seeded to annual grasses increased in 195-. Annual
grasses may be sown on land which otherwise might be fallow in
preparation for winter seeding.
-9-
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workers averaged about 245 soft-plowing hectares per man, inasmuch
as the Machine Tractor Stations accomplished 75 million soft-plowing
hectares of additional work in 1954 above the 1953 level in kolkhoz
agriculture. 40/ About 300-,000 new MTS workers would have been re-
quired for this work. The number of workers on the MTS permanent
staff thus increased to 2,362,000 ~rorkers and employees at the end
of 1954.-x-~-
The remainder (600,000) of the total increment of new workers
and employees added to state agriculture during 1954 apparently was
incorporated into the sovkhoz staffs. The permanent sovkhoz staff
thus increased from 2,028,000 in 1953 to 2,628,000 at the end of 1954.
The remaining 100,000 new workers of the total 1 million increment
to Soviet agriculture as a whole apparently constituted kolkhozniki
permanently employed in kolkhoz agriculture. Their estimated number
thus increased from slightly over 48.5 million in 1953 to over 48.6
million in 1954, as shown in Table 1.~~~-
This distribution of 400,000 permanent workers added to work
in kolkhoz production and of 600,000 to work in sovkhoz agriculture
is plausible only if a large increase in part-time workers in kolkhoz
agriculture occurred during 1954. Under the assumption indicated be-
low, that two-thirds of the new sown hectares in Soviet agriculture
~ To determine this rate the startin
~ g point was 1951, when 382.5
million hectares in soft plowing were done by the Machine Tractor
Stations in kolkhoz production. 35/ The norm is the fuel required
for one hectare of soft plowing on old-plowed land by MTS tractors. 36/
All types of work are evaluated primarily in terms of the cost of fuel
for covering the ground. Thus 3.3 hectares of seeding is equivalent
in cost to 1 hectare of plowing on old land. One hectare of seeding
thus equals 0.3 hectares of soft plowing. 37/ If the planned increase
in work done by the Machine L'ractor Stations was accomplished in 1952,
11 percent over 1951, the Machine Tractor Stations would in 1952 Piave
achieved about 421 million hectares of soft plowing work. 38/ In
1953 the Machine Tractor Stations accomplished 17 percent above the
1952 level, 39/ ar a total of about 490 million hectares of soft plow-
ing. Since there were about 2 million workers doing MTS work in 1953,
they averaged about 245 hectares of soft plowing per man.
~~ Current reports still refer to the MTS staff as comprising about
2 million workers (rabotniki). 41/ This number may not include the
120,000 agronomists and zootechnicians working on the kolkhozes during
1954. 42/ From the context of the statements it also appears likely
that the autriors may not be citing estimates applicable to current con-
ditions.
*~~ P. 4, above.
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added during 1954 were added to the kolkhozes,~ it is estimated that
1.2 million kolkhozniki in man-year equivalents would have been re-
quired to perform the work necessary for the total increase in kolkhoz
sown hectares. This estimate assumes that no MTS workers had been added.
The addition of the 300,000 MTS workers partially fills the
total requirements of labor in kolkhoz agriculture, because each MTS
worker is probably the equivalent of 1.8 kolkhozniki in work done per
year on the kolkhoz. Nevertheless, their addition and the addition
of 100,000 kolkhozniki still does not fill total labor requirements
on the kolkhoz. To complete these total labor needs, it is estimated
that about 2.g million village-urban workers were required for part-
time employment in kolkhoz production during the peak seasons in
1954.~~ By comparison, only about 600,000 workers were added to the
part-time labor force on the sovkhozes.~~~
The press probably has been more concerned with sensational
developments in the sovkhozes in the reclaimed areas than with changes
affecting the MacYrine Tractor Stations. The plans a.re to construct
425 new grain sovkhozes (averaging about 20,000 to 25,000 hectares 43/)
in the "new lands" 44/ during the 1954-55 agricultural seasons.- About
125 of these were built in the reclaimed areas duping 1954, as compared
with about 75 new Machine Tractor Stations for the USSR as a whole. 45/
One report envisages an increase of several thousand new Machine Trac-
tor Stations during the coming years of agricultural development. 46/
Probably as important as developments in the sovkhozes of the
"new lands" in 1954 were two basic changes in productive activity in
the old areas. The first consisted of shifting 154 sovkhozes in the
Ministry of State Farms of the USSR and 7 sovkhozes in the Ministry of
the Food Industry of the USSR to the production of vegetables and
potatoes. It was emphasized also that other sovkhozes were to in-
crease the production of these crops, technical crops, and~meat and
dairy products. By 1 November 1854, sovkhozes had delivered 50 per-
cent more potatoes and 70 percent more vegetables than in 1g~3. 47/
Sovkhozes of the Ministry of State Farms of the USSR had delivered
to the state 2,170,000 more centners~~~~' of milk, 460,000 more centners
See p. 12, below.
See Appendix A for the methodology used for these estimates.
See Table 2, p. 16, below, for analysis of part-time employment
in Soviet agriculture.
-~-~-~-~- One centner equals 220.46 pounds, 100 kilograms, or one-tenth
of 1 metric ton.
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of meat, and 80,000 more centners of wool than in 1953. 48/ Absolute
increases in, o.r shifts to, production of these crops and products un-
doubtedly resulted in the recruitment of additional labor (from kolk-
hozes) required for their cultivation and care.
The second shift was from perennials to grain production.
Party criticism in February of 1954 indicated that the area of fodder
crops, especially of perennials, in sovkhozes in 1953 totaled 44 per-
cent of the total sown area. 49/ Particular criticism was directed
at stud farms of the Ministry of State Farms, where only 275,000
hectares out of S.4 million hectares were in grain production. 50/
Over ~+ million hectares of this land were located in rich farm lands
of the black-soil area above the Caspian Sea, the North Caucasus,
the Volga, and the Ukraine and in Siberia and Kazakhstan. 51/ If it
is assumed that one-third of the 8.4 million new sown grain hectares
added in the USSR in 1954 and one-third of the 3.6 million new hec-
tares in technical crops, potatoes and vegetables, and silage and
feed roots- were added to sovkhoz cultivation, then the estimate of
600,000 new workers and employees required for sovkhoz agriculture
would seem plausible.
The increment of new workers to Soviet agriculture during
the 1955 agricultural season is estimated at 1.5 million. This
increase is in two categories. The first consists of estimated
requirements of 1 million new workers needed to sow and work the
20 million hectares of "new lands" planned for 1955. 52/ This esti-
mate assumes a workload per worker of 20 hectares rather than the
present workload in Kazakhstan and Siberia of 13 to 15 hectares,
but it is believed that manpower shortages and the rise of larger
mechanized equipment will account for the increase.~-~~- This esti-
mate is supported b y a report published in the fall of 1954 b y a US
newspaper correspondent who analyzes Soviet newspaper statements that
the "new lands" would require about 1 million new workers by the
spring of 1955. 53/
The second increase consists of minimum estimated require-
ments of about 500,000 new workers for cultivating the planned total
area in sown corn during 1955 of about lb million hectares. 54/ This
area would be about 12.5 million hectares above the 1954 level of sown
corn. 55/
See the discussion on p. 9, above.
See Table 1, p. 4, above.
See p. l~, above.
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This estimate of the additional labor rt:qui.red may be !ow. A
recent Soviet report indicates that manpower requ.reraents, under cur-
rent levels of mecharrization, for 1 hectare of Y_=invested corn are
2.o times as heavy as for 1 hectare of spring grain. 57~ Furthermore,
the USSR has overfulf filled its planned goal fcr 1G55 by seeding a total
of 17.9 million hectares to corn. 5v~ This m:~y '~sve 'seen accomp]_ished
more because of fear of officia_l_ net=~liation for f.~i'.ure than because
of the special bonuses offered for ac~:ieving plan goals by areas. 5~~~
If Soviet officie~ls expect to harvest corn at or near ma.ttzr ity,
it seems certain that they wil 1 encounter difficulties in the coordina-
tion of agricultural. operations and in the distribution of manpower.
Under these conditions, about half the corn may be planted on land
which ordinarily would lie fallow during the summer before the seeding
of winter wheat 60~ (in the old agricultural areas . The other half
may replace poor-yielding spring grains or be sown on the better
meadows or grass lands. The corn planted on the summer fallow would
be harvested at a time when the harvesting of small grains and the
seeding of winter grains might still be under way. About half the
corn harvested then would constitute an addition to the total crop
area under harvest.
If, however, a large percentage of the corn is not allowed to
approach maturity and is not cut for silage or for grain but is cut
early for green feed during the dry stunmer when pastures are poor, then
the drain on manpower may not be as heavy as might at first be indicated.
It is on the basis of this latter possibility that the minimum
estimate of 500,000 new workers for corn cultivation has been adopted.
The estimated total labor force employed full-time in Soviet agriculture
thus increases from about 53.6 million in 1954 to about 55.1 million
in 1955?
It is estimated that of the 1.5 million new workers being added
to agriculture in 1955, about 1 million will consist of rural youth
maturing into permanent work in kolkhoz agriculture -- the total num-
ber of kolkhozniki earning labor-days is thus expected to rise from
48.6 million in 1954 to about 49.6 million in 1955? It is possible
that about half of these will be young resettlers, mostly unmarried,
migrating from the Ukraine and other western Soviet areas to kolkhozes
in the "new lands."
~- A recent CIA publication suggests that, on the basis of US experience,
manpower requirements for corn per unit area may be about four times as
heavy as for grain. 56~
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While labor savings in the older established areas -- the
Ukraine, Belorussia, and the black-soil rayons above the Caspian
Sea -- have been and will be achieved by increased increments of
machinery during 1955, it is probable that labor requirements
will still remain high in these high man-land ratio areas 61/ and
that these labor savings will not constitute a substantis,l offset
to the additional requirements for the new corn hectares added to
cultivation. 62/ Indeed, it is more likely that the absolute level
of labor inputs may be raised in these areas.
It is estimated that 500,000 of the new additions will be
assigned permanently to work in state agriculture. MTS and sovkhoz
activity will undoubtedly increase during 1955. At least 165 new
Machine Tractor Stations are being built, 63/ and about 300 new
sovkhozes are being constructed on the "new lands." 64/ At least
as many new graduates of 1-year schools of mechanization probably
will be assigned to state agriculture as in 1954 -- 31+3,000. 65/
These additions increase the number of workers and employees in
state agriculture from about 5 million in 1954 to about 5.5 mil-
lion in 1955? As in 1951+, about 300,000 probably will be added
to the MTS staffs. With most of the labor-consuming changes
effected in sovkhozes in 1954, it is estimated that only about
200,000 will be added to the sovkhoz staffs. The number of MTS
workers will thus increase from about 2.4 million workers and
employees in 1954 to about 2.7 million in 1955 in the sovkhozes
the number of workers is expected to rise from about 2.6 million
in 1954 to about 2.8 million in 1955?
In summary, the number of agricultural workers permanently
employed in Soviet agriculture is estimated to be increasing at
the rate of 1 million workers per year from 1951 through 1954, and
during 1955 the number is expected to increase by 1.5 million more.
III. Changes in the Size of the Part-Time Agricultural Labor Force.
About 56 percent of the total Soviet labor force in 1954 was
permanently assigned to agriculture as an occupation. It is certain,
however, on the basis of fragmentary prewar and postwar data, that
an even greater proportion of the total labor force engages in per-
manent and part-time agricultural activities. This section presents
~ See Table 3, P? 20, below.
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analyses of two types of part-time employment which indicate the scope
and character of this participation. The first consists of workers
hired from village and urban sources in kolkhoz and sovkhoz agriculture;
the second, of the participation of the total Soviet labor force in
private plot agriculture.
A. Part-Time Employment of Village-Urban Workers.
The estimated size and scope of the participation of village-
urban workers in part-time work in socialist agriculture in 193, 1951,
and 1953 are given in Table 2.~ The methodology, further explained
in Appendix A, consists of applying prewar rates of man-days worked
per year per worker and developing estimates from prewar and postwar
statistical relationships between types of workers. The analysis must
be regarded as provisional. The data are not firm. Nevertheless, the
recent expansion of grain sowings in the newly reclaimed grain lands
of Kazakhstan and Siberia and the likelihood of highly mechanized opera-
tions in these areas have given support to the theory that agricultural
work there may be accomplished with a relatively small permanent
labor force, supplemented in peak seasons by a relatively large seasonal
labor force. This section provides the background view of part-time
participation of village-urban labor through 1954 and before the full
expansion of part-time work in these areas expected by 1960. Only
3.6 million hectares of "new lands" were sown during 1954, as com-
pared with the planned 1956 goal of 28 million to 30 million hectares. 66~
Village-urban workers consist of workers hired, principally in
the summer seasons, for periods of 1 or 2 months at the most. 67~ In
the great majority of cases they consist of youths free from school,
older people, artisans, cooperative workers, local government personnel,
and some factory and plant hands made available by Soviet autYiority
for temporary aid to farm organizations in emergency seasons. h8~ The
press is currently dotted with reports of the participation of these
workers in kolkhoz and sovkhoz work. In the summer of 1954, for example,
it was reported that 150,000 persons in Altayskiy Kray 69~ went out from
the villages and urban areas to assist in the harvest.~~
a e follows on p. 16.
~~ In 1937, about 43 percent of the labor inputs expended by hired
kolkhoz workers was expended in field work; about 12 percent in con-
struction; about 15 percent in subsidiary enterprises (feed and flour
mills, blacksmith shops, brick kilns, and other kolkhoz enterprises);
and the rest (30 percent) in other agricultural activities. 70~
(Text continued on p. 17.)
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Table 2
Estimated Changes in the Participation of Village-Urban Workers
in Part-Time Work in Socialist Agriculture
in the USSR, by Type of Farm a/
1933, b/ 1951, and 1953-54
Type of Farm
1938
1951
1953
1954
Kolkhoz c/
2,228
2,822
2,912
5,076
sovkhoz a/
1,495
1,931
1,993
2,586
Total
3,723
4,753
4,905
7,662
a. The number of workers estimated in this table is derived from a
distribution of labor inputs expended in seasonal work in Soviet
agriculture, as shown in Table 5, p. 31, below. This table con-
siders only workers or persons normally occupied outside of agri-
culture in part-time employment in agriculture. There does occur
part-time employment within agriculture also, by the kolkhozniki
in MTS and sovkhoz work. It is estimated that 2.4 million kolk-
hozniki worked for the Machine Tractor Stations and about 2.3 mil-
lion for the sovkhozes in 1938, 2.9 million for the Machine T:actor
Stations and 2.g million for the sovkhozes in 1951, 1.8 million for
the Machine Tractor Stations and 3 million for the sovkhozes in 1953,
and 2.1 million for the Machine Tractor Stations and 3.g million for
the sovkhozes in 1954. The total number of kolkhozniki working in
part-time work in state agriculture as a whole is estimated as
4.7 million in 1938, 5.8 million in 1951, 4.7 million in 1953, and
6 million in 1954. The derivation of these estimates is given in
Table 5 and in Appendix A.
b. Postwar boundaries.
c. The postwar estimates of the numbers of village-urban workers in
part-time agricultural work on the kolkhozes are based on 1938 data.
The workers for 1938, according to Soviet calculations, worked an
average of about 33.85 man-days per worker per year on the kolk-
hozes. 71/ This rate was applied to the man-.day inputs for these
workers indicated in Table 5 for 1951 and 1953. The procedure for
estimating the number of these workers on the kolkhozes for 1954 is
explained in Appendix A. It should be noted, however, that the in-
crement of these part-time workers on the kolkhozes during 1954 is a
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Estimated Changes in the Participation of Village-Urban Workers
in Part-Time Work in Socialist Agriculture
in the USSR, by Type of Farm a/
1938, b_/ 1951, and 1953-54
(Continue d)
much larger increase than occurred on the sovkhozes. This is due
primarily to the fact that the increment of permanent MTS workers
during 1954 was estimated as only half as large as the increment of
permanent sovkhoz workers -- 300,000 as compared with 600,000.
d. The number of village-urban workers employed part-time on the
sovkhozes in 1938, 1951, and. 1953 is derived by using a prewar esti-
ri ~+
mate that temporary workers on the sovkhoz constituted about 40
percent of total "temporary-seasonal" sovkhoz employment. 72/ In
this report "temporary" sovkhoz employment is treated as village-
urban workers., and "seasonal employment" as kolkhozniki. This per-
centage was then applied to the number of kolkhozniki working for
the sovkhozes for each year (see footnote a, above) to derive total
"temporary-seasonal" labor for the sovkhozes. Frain this number the
number of village-urban workers was derived by subtraction. For
1954 the number of these workers was derived by using the proportion
of permanent sovkhoz workers in total sovkhoz employment (including
village-urban workers) estimated for 1953. Thus the number of per-
manent sovkhoz workers in 1953 was given as 2,028,000 (see Table 1,
p. 4, above), which is about 28.9 percent of total sovkhoz employ-
ment. This percentage when applied to 2,628,000, the number of
permanent workers on the sovkhozes in 1954, yields total sovkhoz
employment from which the number of village-urban part-time workers
may be derived by suotraction.
The data in Table 2 exhibit three basic trends in the part-
time participation of village-urban workers in agriculture. First,
their participation increased by about 1 million workers, or about
128 percent, between 1938 and 1951. This rate of increase is similar
for both kolkhozes and sovkhozes. The total increase may, in part,
have compensated for a decline of about 2.7 million permanent workers
in Soviet agriculture between these two dates. It is estimated that
the total permanent agricultural labor force comprised about
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53,463,000 kolkhozniki, MTS workers, sovkhoz workers, and private
peasant workers in 1938,E as compared with about 50,748,000 workers
in 1951.~~
The number of village-urban workers employed in agriculture
apparently was stabilized between 1951 and 1953, increasing only by
about 150,000 workers. Marked changes occurred from 1953 through
1954, however. In the first place, the distribution of part-time
workers between the kolkhozes and the sovkhozes changed. Where
previously the percentage of these workers employed on the kolkhozes
fluctuated near 60 percent, in 1954 it had risen to over 66 percent.
Also, the total increase in participation comprised about 2.8 mil-
lion workers, or an increase of about 56 percent, from 1953 through
1954. The data in Table 2 show that the total nzamber of village-
urban workers increased from about 3.7 million workers in 1938 to
about 4.9 million in 1953? By 1954 the total number had risen to
about 7.7 million village-urban workers in part-time agricultural
employment. During these same periods those working in kolkhoz
production increased from about 2.2 million in 1938 to 2.9 million
in 1953 and 5.1 million in 1954. On the sovkhozes ab out 1.5 mil-
lion village-urban workers were employed part-time in 193ti, as
compared with 2 million in 1953 and 2.E~ million in 1954.
These increases correspond with the increase of 1 million
permanent workers in Soviet agriculture from 1953 to 1954, 90 per-
cent of which occurred in state agriculture, and with the partici-
pation of 1,250,000 kolkhozniki (mostly males in the status of
permanent MTS staff workers and employees as a result of the
September Plenum of 1953. 73/
The addition of 8.g million sown hectares to Soviet agri-
culture and the reclamation of 17.5 million hectares of "new
lands," accompanied by the resultant initiation of new construction
activity, thus had an enormous impact on the development of the
Soviet agricultural labor force.
It should be indicated, however, that these increases may not
be expected to continue on such a scale. Moderate increases may be
expected through 1957. Thereafter the magnitude of expected invest-
ments in agriculture should reduce the need for large increases in
~ See Table , p. 28, below.
~~ See Table 1, p. 4, above.
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labor requirements. Increases in the mechanization of agricultural
operations may reduce these requirements eventually to the 1955 level.
The greater part of the expected construction should have been erected
by 1960. In the "new lands" the installation of new village com-
munities and their required communication, transportation, educa-
tional, and health and welfare facilities should by 1960 have been
sufficiently accomplished.
B. Lab or on Family Plots.
Part-time work on family plots merits attention because of
its magnitude. This type of labor is expended by kolkhozniki and
workers and employees, each of whom may have from one-fourth to
about 1 hectare of land for cultivation and livestock production. 7~+~
It is likely that all of the 41.8 million kolkhozniki 75~ in 1938
had family plots, and so did about 10.5 million workers and employees.
By 1953 the number of kolkhozniki with plots increased to about x+8.6
million, and of workers and employees, to about 18 million. 76~ The
kolkhozniki expended about 1.8 billion man-days in 1938 on these
plots, as compared with about 1.9 billion in 1953; and the workers
and employees increased their inputs from about 350 million man-days
in 1938 to about 530 million man-days in 1953.E 77~ The total num-
ber of workers with plots comprised about 52,3 million persons ex-
pending about 2.2 billion man-days in 1938, as compared with about
66.6 million persons expending about 2.4 billion man-days in 1953?
Total labor inputs on family plots constituted about 23 percent of
total agricultural labor inputs in 1938, as compared with about 25
percent in 1953. 78/
The estimates of part-time employment in agriculture depend,
as stated above, on prewar rates and relationships -- their exactitude
is questionable. Nevertheless, they are of such a magnitude as to
suggest that part-time employment in agriculture apparently involves
the participation of large numbers of people in the USSR. The
dependence of ab out 40 percent of all workers and employees in Soviet
agriculture in 1953 (18 million of a total x+4.8 million, including
workers and employees in state agriculture 79~) on individual agri-
culture for part of their family food indicates that large numbers
of families in the suburbs of cities and in worker settlements --
whose bread-winners normally are in urban employment -- are not yet
clearly divorced from labor-consuming agricultural work (principally
in potatoes, vegetables, and meat and dairy production)o The Soviet
economy most certainly has not yet surmounted the retarding effects
of agricultural underdevelopment.
~ See Appendix A.
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IV. Problems of Manpower Allocation.
The above analysis has concentrated on the size and growth of
employment in agriculture. Questions arise, however, as to the effects
of the growth of the permanent agricultural labor force on changes
in total Soviet employment and on changes in the distribution of
workers between farm and nonfarm employment. These problems may
be developed by comparison of the growth in numbers of various sec-
tors of the labor force and in the number of employable persons
15 to 59 years of age in 1951 and 1953-54, as shown in Table 3.
Estimated Growth of the Labor Force in the USSR, by Type of Worker a/
1951 and 1953-54
Workers and Employees
Population
State
Agri-
Nonagri-
Total
15 to 59
cultural
cultural
Workers
Total
Year b/
Years 9f
Age ~/
Kolkh~ -
niki _/
Labor
Force d/
Labor
Force e/
and
Employees f/
Labor
Force ~/
1951 total
120,700
48,168
2,580
38,220
40,800
88,968
1953 total
125,500
48,549
4,090
40,710
44,800
93,349
1954 total
127,_900
48,649
4,990
42,010
47,000
95,649
1951-53
increase
4,800
381
1,510
2,490
4,000
4,381
1953-54
increase
2,400
100
900
1,300
2,200
2,300
Total
increase
1951-54
7,200
481
2,410
3,790
6,200
6,681
a. Certain employable persons zaere not included in these data, including
those in forced labor and those in the armed services.
b. As of the end of the year.
c. 80/
d. These data are taken from Table 1, p. 4, above.
e. Derived b y subtracting the number of state agricultural workers from
the total number of workers and employees.
f. Supplied from official Soviet sources. 81/
g. Includes kolkhozniki and total workers and employees.
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Numbers of employable persons in the armed forces and in forced labor.
are excluded from the data. The figures are end-of-the-year data.
The table shows that about 2.9 million workers (over 40 percent)
of the total of about 6.7 million workers added from the end of 1951
to the end of 1954 were assigned permanently to agricultural employ-
ment. State agriculture received about 84 percent of the total increase
in farm workers. The average annual rate of increase in agriculture
over the 3-year period is about 1 million workers, as compared with
about 1.3 million workers per year for nonagricultural sectors. The
average increase for the total labor force is 2.2 million workers per
year over the 3-year period.
It seems clear that this rate for the total labor force is a
high rate of increase and is near the limit of new workers available
by population growth. According to recent estimates, 82~ between the
end of 1949 and the end of 1954, about 12 million employable persons
15 to 59 years of age were added to the Soviet population, at the
average annual rate of increase of 2.4 million persons over the 5-
year span. While this rate is higher than the rate for new employ-
ment, it is also clear that the rate of participation of persons 15
to 59 years of age in work is only about 80 percent (between 95 to
100 percent for males and about 60 percent for females 83~). The
rate of increase in employment, therefore, probably is somewhat higher
than the rate of increase for employable persons 15 to 59 years of
age actually at work.
It is likely that the gap between the estimated total increase
in employment between the end of 1951 and the end of 1954 and the in-
crease in persons 15 to 59 years of age actually at work may have been
filled from two sources. These sources are (1) the amnesty releases
in 1953 of about 1 million to 2 million workers from forced labor 84~
and (2) increases in the number of persons between 12 to 15 years of
age at work, especially in agriculture. Many of the amnestied workers
were undoubtedly absorbed in the nonagricultural labor force, thus
compensating for the incomplete work participation of women. Most of
the youths 12 to 15 years of age undoubtedly earned labor-day wage
credits in kolkhoz agriculture. While Soviet planners have stressed
the retention of more and more youths in educational institutions as
far as the tenth grade, 85~ it is still possible for youths to earn
labor-day credits in kolkhoz agriculture, at least in the summer period.
It is estimated that in the prewar era (1937) about 15 percent of the
labor force probably consisted of youths under 16 years of age who earned
labor-days. 86
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That this second source is a possibility is indicated by a
recent report on educational practice in Vinnitsa Oblast (in the
Ukraine), where during 1955 brigades of students in the fifth to
ninth grades were being formed to sow, cultivate, and harvest crops
in kolkhoz and sovkhoz employment in conjunction with educational
training in the classroom. 87/ The theory is expressed that better
coordination of practical with theoretical training results in better
integration of knowledge and learning.
The increase in the total labor force as indicated in Table 3
thus appears to approach the limit of the availability of persons for
new employment during the 1951-54 period (end of each year) -- about
2.4 million persons per year. The rural population probably is
capable of providing 1.4 million new workers per, year, as compared
with 1 million by the urban population. As early as the XVIII Party
Congress it was estimated that the rural areas could provide 1.5
million new workers annually for industrial employment. 88/
On the basis of the foregoing analysis, the prospects for
a tight labor supply situation for 1955-65 may be developing. The
difficulty of expanding all the segments of the labor force at the
same time probably will be all the greater during the next decade
because the rate of increase in the Soviet population 15 to 59 years
of age will be considerably slower (2 million as compared with 2.4
million in the past 5 years 89/). This indicates that important
decisions must be made b y the top-level planners as to the distribu-
tion of the short labor supply. Some of the tightness in the cur-
rent labor situation may, of course, have been relieved by tree
achievement of planned reductions in the swollen administrative
staffs of various ministries and organizations and the transfer of
administrative personnel to direct productive work. 90/ On the
basis of planned ruble savings by the transfer, it has been esti-
mated that as many as 1 million administrative persons could have
been inducted into productive employment. 91/
V. Capabilities, Vulnerabilities, and Intentions.
The trends in the growth and employment distribution of the
agricultural labor force in the USSR are significant for the national
economy for several reasons. In the first place, it is probable that
increased total labor requirements in agriculture since the September
1953 Plenum of the Communist Party, in conjunction witYi strong pressure
from industry to recruit new workers from farm areas for expanding,
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industries, have strained and will continue to strain, in the immediate
future, the maturation capacity of the rural population to provide tYle
necessary transfers to industry. This conclusion is supported by the
fact that the rate of increase of that portion of the Soviet popula-
tion which is 15 to 59 years of age will be slower than it has been --
ab out 2 million per year as compared to 2.1+ million in the past 5 years.
The expansion of cultivation of "new lands" by about 3U million
sown hectares by 1956, a,nd of about 26 million new hectares in sown
corn by 1960, wozzld seem to signify an increase of the total from at
least 40 million to 50 million hectares, if allowances are made for
substitution of some of the new for old hectares. This trend, in con-
junction with emphases on the development of enlarged livestock herds
and on increased production of potatoes and vegetables, would seem to
indicate increased total labor requirements in agriculture, at least
in the irrunediate future .
An equally burdensome aspect of the problem of meeting labor
requirements in the early years of the 195--60 agricultural constrLic-
tion program may well be the construction of more facilities for the
storage of additional grain and for the care and maintenance of in-
creased livestock numbers and the construction of new biomes for hous-
ing additional families on the new and the old farm organizations in-
volved in the expansion. It has been reported that about 800,000 con-
struction workers are needed in the RSFSR alone to man kolkhoz construc-
tion brigades for building facilities, especially livestock a.nd storage
facilities in kolkhoz agriculture. 92/ The standard apparently aimed
for is ab out 15 to 20 kolkhoznik workers permanently assigned to one
construction brigade per kolkhoz, with other workers temporarily
assisting in earth-moving work and in the transportation of materials
and parts. 93/ If these workers are not available in terms of skills
and qualifications on the kolkhozes, they apparently will be hired. 94/
The figure given for construction workers needed on the kolkhozes,
furthermore, does not include the number of construction workers needed
by the Machine Tractor Stations and the sovkhozes in the building of new
MacY~ine Tractor Stations and sovkhozes or in the improvement of exist-
ing facilities. Most MTS and sovkhoz workers employed in construction
undoubtedly will be trained on the job. 95/ Construction ministries
and organizations outside of agriculture probably will be authorized
to do much of the building for the Machine Tractor Stations and the
sovkhozes, employing some agricultural workers for some of the work.. 96/
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It is expected that farm and nonfarm organizations will in the
long run be brought into closer coordination in construction work and
in the handling of agricultural products. The number of workers re-
cruited from village-urban sources for part-time agricultural work may
conceivably increase in the immediate future. This trend may be one
important means for coping with the problem of increased labor re-
quirements without substantially increasing the number of workers per-
manently resident on the farms. Nonfarm organizations apparently will
become more responsible for the transportation of farm products from
socialized farms (and probably from the family plots), for construc-
tion work, and for processing operations (such as grain drying) for-
merly handled by farmers. 97/ Increased supplies of machinery and
electrified facilities on the farms should in the long run reduce the
large increases in labor requirements needed in the immediate future
in the agricultural building program.
It appears that the Soviet government intends to solve labor
problems connected with agriculture in the immediate future as fol-
lows: (1) to distribute more urban workers and employees to work in
nonfarm organizations associated with agriculture; (2) to coordinate
more closely the activities of farm and nonfarm organizations so that
much work in agriculture which may require skilled labor can be
assumed b y the nonfarm work force; and (3) to increase the supply of
machinery and electrical installations to farms so as to facilitate
the reduction of labor inputs in labor-consuming sectors of agriculture,
particularly in cultivated row crops and in livestock production.
It seems possible that these intentions can be realized, at
least partially, by 1960. But the demand for labor in all sectors of
the economy at the same time in the current situation seems to be
straining the maturation capacity of the population. The sprinkling
of articles appearing in the press since January 1955 on the necessity
for increasing labor productivity and for reducing the size of swollen
administrative staffs, together with the recent action of the Com-
munist Party in setting up a new committee attached to the Soviet of
Ministers to treat problems of labor and wages, 98/ would seem to indi-
cate that the problem of distributing workers among the various branches
of the national economy may be receiving serious attention by Soviet
planners. The discovery of ways to increase output per man is certainly
an important means for reducing manpower requirements and for relieving
the current strains which present requirements seem to make on the
national economy. Soviet planners seem displeased over current trends
in labor productivity, which in industry apparently have increased at
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a declining rate,- 99/ and which in agriculture are currently at or
only slightly above 1938 levels. 100/
It is quite possible that the announcements in the summer of
1955 of Soviet intentions to demobilize 640,000 men from the Soviet
armed forces may in part be as much linked to manpower needs of the
economy as a whole as to the need for propaganda indicating Soviet
peaceful intentions following the Geneva Conference in August 1955. 101/
Midyear plan fulfillment reports indicate an increase of only 1 mil-
lion workers and employees from midyear 1954 to midyear 1955. 102/
This increment is to be compared with the increase of 4 million added
by 1 July 1954. 103/
Of this 4 million, 2.3 million workers and employees were
added to state agriculture, so that the total increment of workers
and employees to nonagricultural employment was 1.7 million b y 1
July 195-. The increment of 1 million by 1 July 1955 includes
workers and employees in both agricultural and nonagricultural employ-
ment. It seems clearly possible that the increment to nonagricultural
employment in 1955 Probably did not exceed, at the maximum, one-third
the size of the increment by 1 July 1954.
See Tab le 1, p. 4, ab ove, and Table 5, p. 31, below.
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APPENDIX A
METHODOLOGY
1. Revised Estimates of the Permanent Agricultural Labor Force
for 193 and 1951.
A recent study of the development of the Soviet agricultural labor
force between 1926 and 19+1 10~+ makes .it clear that three revisions
of previously published CIA estimates 105/ of the permanent agricultural
labor force are necessary. These three changes pertain to the numbers
of kolkhozniki and of MTS workers and employees in 1938. Fwrther- ,
more, because the derivation of 1951 estimates depends on the 1938
data, the 1951 estimates should also be adjusted.
The revised estimates for 1938 and 1951 are given in Table ~+.~
Also included are estimates for 1953 which constitute the distribu-
tion of permanent workers that would have prevailed if the changes
effected by the September 1953 Plenum of the Communist Party had not
occurred.
The first basic revision affects the number of kolkhozniki earning
labor-day credits in 1938. The number adopted by the previous CIA
estimate 106 was given as 41,727,000. 107/ The author of
this estimate in a subsequent report indicated that this number had not
included an estimated 109,000 kolkhozniki earning labor days in Yakutsk
ASSR. 108/ Hence the revised figure is x+1,836,000 kolkhozniki, as
shown in Table 4.
The same source makes it clear from available reports in the pre-
war era that the number of MTS workers permanently employed in 1938
was 509,000 109/ instead of the 817,000 estimated in the previous CIA
report. 110 Apparently the latter report included about 300,000
kolkhozniki who earned both wages and labor-days, while the correct
figure includes only those earning wages. 111 This distinction, how-
ever, no longer applies. The majority of the MTS permanent workers
and employees now are paid both in wages and in trudodni credits
earned, depending on the type of worx done. 112~-
~ Table follows on p. 28.
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Estimated Distribution of the Permanent Agricultural Labor Force
in the USSR, by Sector
1938 and 1951 (Revised) and 1953 (Unadjusted) a/
Unadjusted/
Revised Estimates Estimate b
Type of Worker 1938 1951
Socialist agriculture
Kolkhoz 41,836 48,168 48,699
Machine Tractor Station 509 614 634
Sovkhoz 1,518 1,966 2,028
Total socialist
agriculture 43,863 50,748 52,361
Private peasant
agriculture 9,600 c/ c/
Total permanent
agriculture 53,463 50,748 52,361
a. As of the end of each year.
b. These 1953 estimates have not been adjusted for the changes effected
by the September 1953 Plenum. See Table 1, p. 4, above, for adjusted
estimates for 1953?
c. It is probable that the number of private farmers in the USSR dur-
ing and after 1951 is negligible. 113/
The 1951 estimates of the MTS permanent labor force in this re-
port rest on estimated labor inputs required in MTS machine work on
the kolkhozes, 114/ adjusted downward on the basis of the reductions
in MTS inputs as revised for 1938. The man-year equivalent annual
rate of 231.1 man-days worked per year per MTS worker in 1938 115/
was applied to these adjusted labor inputs for 1951 to determine the
number of MTS workers in 1951.
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Estimation of the number of kolkhozniki in 1851 involved a third
revision necessary for 1938. This is based on the fact, not ac-
counted for in the previous CIA estimates, that -the kolkhozes in 1938
hired an estimated 2,228,000 part-time workers for an average of
about 34 man-days per man per year. 116/ The labor inputs of there
workers had previously been assigned to the kolkhozniki. Total l~~oor
inputs on the kolkhozes included, therefore, the inputs of the MTS
workers and of the part-time workers. The adjustments resulting from
the three revisions required that labor inputs assigned to kolkhozniki
in 1938 had to be both increased to compensate for the reduced labor
inputs of a smaller MTS labor force and reduced to compensate for the:
inputs expended by hired part-time workers on the kolkhozes.
Since total inputs in socialized agriculture did not require :re-
vision for 1938, being estimated on tl~.e basis of input requirements
per hectare and per head of animals as adjust=d for inputs in mecha-
nized operations and in administrative work, the fina 1 result of tl;e
three revisions was to produce a new man-equivalent rate for 1838 of
130.1 man-days worked per kolkhozniki per year instead of the f"ormer
rate of 130.54 man-days. 117/ The schedule of m_~.n-day inputs pre-
viously published for 1951 118/ was then adjusted f'or all three re-
visions, and the 1938 man-equivalent rate for kolkhozniki_ was applied
to obtain the estimated number of kolkhozniki for? 1851 of ~+8,163,000,
as shown in Table ~+. This number is slightly l:arge.r t,ha.n the previous
estimate of 48,080,000. llg/
The distribution of permanent agricultural workers for 1953 as
given in Table 4 (unadjusted for changes following tree September
1953 Plenum was obtained by two steps. first, the percent.a,ge
distribution of the total labor inputs per sector which were re-
quired in 1951. was multiplied by the total inputs which were re-
quired in 1953 agriculture. 120/ The total labor inputs per s~:ctor
for 1953 was then divided by the man-year-equivalent rates. These:
rates are summarized on p. 5, above.
The participation of the Soviet labor force in part-time _~gri-
cultural employment is given in Table 5-~ and Table ~.~~- Ta;~le 5
gives the revised distribution of man-day inputs by various types
of part-time workers in socialist and individual agriculture, and
Table 6 gives the estimated distribution of workers in part-time
_~ Table 5 follows on p. 31.
~~ Table 6 follows on p. 32.
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employment. As distinguished from Table 2,~ these tables include
the part-time work of kolkhozniki in the Machine Tractor Stations
and the sovkhozes and of kolkhozniki a.nd workers and employees on
the family plots, as well ~~.:~ t~~.e part-time work in socialist agri-
culture of village-urban workers.
Methodology is givr~n in tre footnotes to Table 6 and to Table 2.
* P . 1 , above .
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Table 6
Estimated Growth of the Part-Time Agricultural Labor Force
in the USSR,by Sector and by Type of Worker
1938, a/ 1951, and 1953-54
Type of Worker 1938 1951 1953 1954
Socialist agriculture
Kolkhozniki
Machine Tractor Station b
/
2,408
2,905
1,750
2,092
_
Sovkhoz ~
2,242
2,897
2,990
3,879
Total kolkhozniki
Villa
e-urban workers
4,650
5,802
4,740
5,971
g
Kolkhoz d/
2,228
2,822
2,913
5,076
Sovkhoz d/
1,495
1,931
1,993
2,586
Total village-urban workers
3,723
4,753
4,906
7,662
Total socialist agriculture
8,373
10 555
9,646
13,633
Individual agriculture (private plots
Kolkhozniki e/
41,836
48,168
48,549
48,649
Workers and employees ~
10,507
17,500
18,000
g/
Total individual agriculture
52,343
65,668
66,549
g/
Total part-time agricultural
workers
g/
g/
g/
g/
a. Postwar boundaries.
b. The estimates of part-time kolkhoznik workers for the Machine
Tractor Stations are based on two sources. The first gives a pre-
liminary estimate of tractor drivers, chief combineers, and chauffeurs
for 1937, totaling about 926,000 workers. 122/ This number is derived
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Table 5
Revised Estimated Distribution of Man-Day Inputs
in Part-Time Agricultural Labor
in the USSR, by Sector a~
1938, b/ 1951, and 1953
Thousand Man-Day Inputs
Type of Worker
Socialist agriculture
1938 1951 1953
Machine Tractor Station
235,720
284,523
293,174
sovkhoz
260,113
336,119
346,943
Total kolkhozniki
495,833
620,642
640,117
Village-urban workers
Kolkhoz
75,406
95,523
98,559
sovkhoz
86,704
112,040
115,601
Total village-urban workers
162,110
207,563
214,160
Total socialist agriculture
657,943
828,205
854,277
Individual agriculture (private plots)
Kolkhozniki
1,814,855
1,844,570
1,903,197
Workers and employees
349,880
512,639
52$,933
Total individual agriculture
2,164,735
2,357,209
2,432,130
Total part-time agricultural
employment
2,822,678
3,185,414
3,2~86,4_0~7
a. This distribution is based on CIA estimates previously pub-
lished 121 and on the revisions indicated in this appendix, pp. 28-29,
above .
b. Postwar boundaries.
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Table 6
Estimated Growth of the Part-Time Agricultural Labor Force
in the USSR, by Sector and by Type of Worker
1938; a/ 1951, and 1853-54
(Continued)
from an apparently incomplete Soviet estimate of 1, 03,000 MTS workers
for 1937; of which it is clear that 477,000 were permanent MTS em-
ployees. 123 The other source estimates that another 1,330,000 kolk-
hozniki worked as combine drivers and as members of combine and tractor
brigades. 124 The permanent MTS workers and employees in 1937 con-
stitute 17.+5 percent of the total number of workers for the Machine
Tractor Stations. This percentage was applied to tilt~~ estimates of
permanent MTS employment as given in Tab le 5, p. 30, above, to derive
total MTS employment for 1938, 1951, and 1953, and then, by subtraction,
to derive kolkhoznik part-time MTS employment.
The estimation for 1954 is based on the data for 1953, which ac-
counts for the transfer of 1,250,000 kolkhozniki and 178000 workers
from nonfarm employment to permanent MTS status, thus boosting total
permanent MTS employment to 2,062,000 workers and employees, as given
in Table 1, p. 4, above. The effect of the transfers was to leave
1,750,000 kolkhozniki in the status of part-time MTS workers as shown
in this table. Permanent MTS employment in 1953 thus became 54.06
percent of total MTS employment. This percentage was then applied to
permanent MTS employment in 1954 to derive kolkhoznik part-time MTS
employment.
c. The estimation of kolkhoznik part-time employment on the sovkhozes
is described in the footnotes to Table 2, p. 16, above.
d. The estimation of village-urban worker part-time employment in
kolkhoz agriculture for 1938, 1951, and 1953 is described in Table 2
footnotes, p. 16, above. The estimation for 1954 is based on the in-
crease in sown hectares on the kolkhozes and on relationships between
labor input rates for different types of workers on the kolkhozes.
As indicated above (p. 9), the total increase in sown hectares in
the USSR during 1954 was 8.9 million hectares. Estimating 3 million of
this increase as occurring on the sovkhozes, the residual left is 5.9
million hectares sown for 1954 on the kolkhozes. About 3.6 million
hectares of the total increase occurred in the "new lands" area, of
which the sovkhozes planted 880,000 hectares. Hence the total accre-
tion of "new lands" on the kolkhozes was 2,720,000 hectares in 1954?
The increase in sown area in the older established parts of kolkhoz
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Estimated Growth of the Part-Time Agricultural Labor Force
in the USSR,by Sector and by Type of Worker
1938, a/ 1951, and 1953-54
(Continued)
agriculture would therefore have been about 3.2 million hectares
(5.9 minus 2.7). If each kolkhoznik was responsible for about 3
hectares per man on the average .in these older areas (see p. 9,
above), then there would have been a total need for 1,060,000 kolk-
hozniki during 1954, if no other workers were added. At 20 hectares
per man in the "new lands" area, however, the total kolkhoz incre-
ment of "new lands" sown area of 2,720,000 hectares would have re-
quired an increase of only 136,000 kolkhzniki during 1954. Total
kolkhoznik requirements in the old and new areas together would have
been 1.2 million workers-.
It is estimated, however, that 300,000 MTS permanent workers were
added during 1954. These workers put in about 231 days work per year
for the Machine Tractor Stations and the kolkhozes, as compared with
the kolkhozniki, who average only about 130.1 man-days work per year.
One MTS worker is thus the equivalent of 1.8 kolkhozniki in terms of
man-year rates. The 300,000 MTS workers added are the equivalent,
therefore, of 533,000 kolkhozniki taking part in kolkhoz production.
Subtracting this number from total estimated kolkhoznik requirements
gives a requirement of 663,000 kolkhozniki needed to assist the 300,000
MTS workers. Because only 100,000 kolkhozniki have been estimated
to have been added permanently to the kolkhoz labor force, it is
assumed that the work of the remainder, 563,000, could have been ac-
complished by village-urban workers during the peak agricultural seasons.
It has been shown that the village-urban workers averaged about
34 days work per person per year on the kolkhoz. Each kolkhoznik is,
therefore, the equivalent of 3.843 village-urban workers. About 2.2
million additional village-urban workers would therefore be needed to
accomplish the work of the 563,000 required kolkhoznik man-equivalents.
The addition of these new village-urban workers to the 1953 Part-time
kolkhoz labor force, 2.9 million, would thus boost the 1954 number to
5.1 million, as shown in Table 2, p, 16, above.
e. See Table 1 and Table 4 (pp. 4 and 28, respectively, above) for
these estimates of the number of kolkhozniki permanently assigned to
kolkhoz production. It is assumed that all kolkhozniki earning labor-
days belong to families having garden plots.
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Table 6
Estimated Growth of the Part-Time Agricultural Lab or Force
in the USSR,by Sector and by Type of Worker
1938, a/ 1951, and 1853-54
(Continued)
f. The numbers of workers and employees with garden plots for 1951
and 1953 are taken from. Soviet sources. 125 The estimated number for
1938 is based on a derived man-year equivalent rate of days worked by
these workers on their plots. The derivation is based on 1951 re-
lationships. As derived from Table 5, p. 31, above, and this table,
the kolkhozniki averaged about 38.3 man-days pergyear in plot labor,
while the workers and employees averaged about 29.3 man-days, per year
in 1951. The former therefore expended about 30.7 percent more labor
on the plots per man. By application of this percentage to the kolk-
hoznik labor input rate on plots for 1938, about ~+3.~+ man-days
annually, an estimate of 33.3 man-days per worker or employee is de-
rived for 1938 on plots. Division of the total labor inputs expended
by workers and employees on plots in 1938 (see Table 5) gives an esti-
mate of 10,507,000 workers and employees with plots izi 1938 for the
postwar Soviet boundaries.
g. The data are either not available or impossible to derive due to
the duplication of workers in the various categories of workers.
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APPENDIX B
GAPS IN INTELLIGENCE
Soviet statistics in the sphere of agricultural lab or are deficient
in many respects. In the first place, there is a considerable lack of
information on labor inputs for various types of agricultural work, both
for the USSR as a whole and for the various administrative areas of
the USSR. It is possible that organized data on labor inputs have not
been fully developed in Soviet statistical accounting. It does not
seem likely that a master set of organized schedules of labor inputs
is used by Soviet writers and officials as a basis for authoritative
statements about agricultural labor.
Studies before the war were made on a limited basis. The most
extensive Soviet government study published for 1937 covered only 10
republics, krays, and oblasts in the prewar boundaries of the USSR. 126
Other studies which have been made are of limited scope and usually
deal with exemplary farm organizations or with exemplary rayons or
oblasts. Many of these refer to postwar organizations and areas at
different points in time. This type of gap in intelligence apparently
can be covered only by careful estimations derived from published
Soviet data.
It seems likely, however, that information can be found on the co-
ordination of Soviet work efforts in the annual farm cycle of work for
various types of farming systems -- such information apparently has
not been collected systematically thus far. What happens to the cycle
of work on a grain farm during the year when the farms are required to
plant large increases in hectares to corn, as is apparently occurring
at present in the USSR? Does substitution of corn for other grains
occur? Is the corn plaxited on summer fallow? If these practices occur,
how do they affect the cycle of labor inputs? Is the labor force bur-
dened or increased as a result of the introduction of more corn?
More information is necessary on the extent to which the kolkhozniki
are engaged in work activities on a daily basis throughout the year.
How much time is spent on the processing of -their personal produce in
fulfilling their obligatory deliveries to the state, and how much in
processing and marketing their personal produce in free trade? How
much of their time is engaged b y the requirements of living during the
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winter time, in woodcutting, in the supply of fuel, in snow removal,
in transporting produce to town, in providing and caring for their
personal stores of food and family materials?
Information should be gathered on the extent and cycle of part-
time labor in agricultural work. How many kolkhozniki are engaged
in sovkhoz and nonfarm activities? How many workers from village
and urban sources engage in kolkhoz and sovkhoz agricultural ac-
tivities? .Are there increased activities on the part of nonfarm
organizations in agricultural construction, transportation, and
in the building of farm-to-market roads?
Information is needed on the extent to which the incentive
system for kolkhozniki is being improved. To what extent is the
trudoden system of crediting wages being displaced by a conven-
tional money system of wages? Are real wages of the individual
farmer actually being increased by advances, supplementary pay-
ments, and bonuses? What happens at the end of the year, when
final accounts are rendered, to the total income of farmers under
recent conditions of monetary payments? If there are increases
in real wages, how much has been effected by changing practices
in the socialized sectors, as compared with income acquired
through production for the free market? How much higher are free
market prices than state delivery, purchase, and retail prices?
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APPENDIX C
SOURCE REFERENCES
:STATSPEC
Three types of sources provided the basic data for this report.
Warren W. Eason's The Agricultural Labor Force and Population of the
USSR: 1926-1941, 195 , U, is fundamental for analysis of permanent
employment in prewar Soviet agriculture. N. Aristov's article in
Planovoye khozyaystvo, November 1939, U; and Kubanin's articles in
Problemy ekonomiki, 1940 and 1941, U, suggest important data for
analysis of part-time employment in socialized agriculture.
For postwar employment and population data, reliance was placed
heavily on four CIA publications: CIA/RR 39, Agricultural Labor in
the USSR, 31 August 1954, S; CIA/RR PR-106, Projected Population of
the USSR, 1950-~5, 8 April 1955, S; CIA./RR PR-32, Postwar Trends in
Manpower of the USSR and the European Satellites, 19 7-57, 27 May
1953, C; and CIA RR PR-lb, Goals and Attainments of Education in the
USSR, 24 April 1952, C.
The major sources for agricultural labor input requirements on
which estimates of postwar agricultural labor force rest were
CIA/RR 39, Agricultural Labor in the USSR, 31 August 1954, S, and
Naum Jasny, The Socialized Agriculture of the USSR, 1849, U. Both
of these, in turn, are dependent on USSR, TsUNKhU, Proizvoditel'nost'
i ispol'zovaniye truda v kolkhozakh vo vtoroy pyatiletke Productivity
and Utilization of Labor on Kolkhozes in the Second Five Year Plan ,
I.V. Sautin, ed, 1939, U, for basic prewar data. In the use of man-
land ratios for estimating current manpower requirements, chief reli-
ance was placed on Dergachev's article in Sotsialisticheskoye
sel'skoye khozyaystvo, No. 1, January 1955, U? 1VTemchinov's article
in Voprosy ekonomiki, No. 2, February 1855, U, provides data on labor
inputs in corn. STATSPEC
In addition to the contributions of the above works, important
data were derived from various Soviet journals
especially
from the latter, for plan resu s announcements and the speeches of
important Soviet officials.
STATSPEC
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Evaluations, following the classification entry and designated
Eval.," have the following significance:
S
ource of Information
Information
Doc. - Documentary
1 -
Confirmed by other sources
A
-Completely reliable
2 -
Probably true
B
- Usually reliable
3 -
Possibly true
C
- Fairly reliable
4 -
Doubtful
D
- Not usually reliable
5 -
Probably false
E
F
- Not reliable
- Cannot be judged
6 - Cannot be judged
"Documentary" refers to original documents of foreign governments
and organizations; copies or translations of such documents by a
staff officer; or information extracted from such documents by a
staff officer, all of which may carry the field evaluation "Docu-
mentary."
Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing on
the cited document; those designated "RR" are by the author of this
report. No "RR" evaluation is given when the author agrees with the
evaluation on the cited document.
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