CA PROPAGANDA PERSPECTIVES SOVIET FOREIGN AID: THE SITUATION IN INDIA

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CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4
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July 29, 1970
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25X1C10b L Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 August 1970 SOVIET FOREIGN AID (Some Facts) According to Andrey Sakharov, Soviet physicist and critic of the state of affairs in the USSR, Soviet citizens know little about their country's economic and military aid to underdeveloped countries. The Soviet press ig- nores the subject. In contrast, the Soviets have spared no effort to impress the world that their aid is abundant and generous, with the result that opinion polls in developing countries equate Soviet aid approximately to that from Western countries. To dispel some of the myths created by this two-way distortion of reality, it is useful to take a look at some generali- ties concerning the Soviet aid program: Soviet Foreign Aid Objectives Khrushchev described the goals and methods of the Soviet foreign aid program of the mid-1950s to the mid-1960s when he announced: "For the de- velopment of their independent national economy, as for the improvement of their people's standard of living, these (underdeveloped) nations may draw on the successes of the Socialist world system.... Today, they no longer need plead with their former oppressors for modern industrial equipment. Such equipment is available to them in the socialist countries, with no political or military strings attached." Subsequently Soviet spokesmen called their foreign aid an expression of "peaceful economic competition" and a fac- tor in the "buildup of the national economy in the underdeveloped nations or in the latter's struggle against imperialism." More recent statements made in the USSR imply that in the future, Soviet aid will increasingly hinge on how closely a given country is judged to be following a "socialist path" in its foreign and domestic relations. The fol- lowing appeared in Kommunist, authoritative political journal of the CPSU Central Committee, in November 1968: "National liberation of nations can be achieved only in close alliance and brotherly solidarity with the international Com- munist movement, when the less-developed nation is guaranteed aid and support from socialist states." This and other Soviet pronouncements of a similar vein suggest that the So- viet foreign aid program, which has never been large, will become even smaller and will increasingly be directed toward politically-favored regimes. Quantity of Soviet Aid Total Soviet economic aid delivered from 1954 through 1969, according to official Soviet figures, has been about $3 billion, or less than half of the Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 total of $6.8 billion pledged to 38 non-Communist countries during this same period. During the beginning of this period, total pledges of aid were four times greater than actual deliveries. This imbalance brought unfavorable publicity to the Soviet program and, as a consequence, in recent years pledges and deliveries have been brought more nearly into balance. Military aid valued at $4 billion has been delivered to more than half of these countries. However, the total of military aid pledged, between $5 and $6 billion worth, remains less than that for economic aid because of the shorter delivery time for weapons, ammunition, and planes, and for the dispatch of military in- structors. USSR Compared with Other Aid Donors As the world's third ranking industrial power, the USSR has a vast for- eign aid potential. Nevertheless, in comparison with the performance record of other aid donors, the Soviet program is unimpressive. Between 1954 and 1968 Soviet economic aid pledged to the Third World equalled only one-eighth that pledged by the U.S.A. while Soviet aid actually delivered fell below one-eighth of that delivered by the U.S.A. Between 1965 and 1968, the Sovi- ets slipped to fourth place in the total value of new aid commitments, trail- ing other donors whose economic potential was far less than theirs. The USSR is one of the few advanced industrial countries which refuses to subscribe to the United Nations annual target for aid donors of one percent of their gross national product (GNP). In fact, the Soviet "burden" has never been greater than 8/100 of one percent of GNP. In 1968 the following percentages of GNP were registered for "industrially advanced" aid donors: France .72 U.S.A. .39 United Kingdom .37 West Germany .37 Japan .32 USSR .04 Unlike aid from the industrial West, over half of which has been pro- vided as outright grants, virtually all Soviet assistance has been in the form of credits. Well over three-quarters of Western aid has been repay- able over 25 years or more -- about double the 12-15 year repayment period allowed by the USSR. Moreover, while roughly between 25 to 30 percent of official aid from Western countries is not tied to procurement in the donor country, all Soviet aid is tied to the purchase of Soviet goods and services, Recently Soviet "aid" has taken on more and more the appearance of "com- mercial credits." Since the mid-1960s Soviet aid extensions have become even Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 less concessional than previously. Interest rates, standardized at about 205 percent, have risen while repayment periods have been shortened and often down payments of up to 25 percent have been required. Quality of Soviet Aid The effectiveness of Soviet economic aid is difficult to measure overall because of differences between countries receiving aid. However, some general- ities apply over-all: projects have required one and a half to two times as much time as planned for completion; final costs often are double the estimated. costs. Production difficulties have been experienced at new plants, and pro- duction equipment has been found to be out of date. The products of completed Soviet aid projects have generally fallen short of quality standards in the non-Communist countries. In some instances, faulty estimates of demand have led to the production in Soviet-built plants of ridiculously high inventories of unsold products. Often the creation of new manufacturing facilities through the Soviet aid programs has had positive effects. Some foreign exchange funds have been saved as countries have produced items which had formerly been imported. A risk factor is that in the process of repayment, the country receiving aid may have to rechannel its future trade to the USSR and its ruble trade zone. When this happens, as is illustrated by Czechoslovakia, production standards are lowered and, over time, the country decreases its ability to sell goods in non-Communist markets. From the Soviets' standpoint their foreign aid program may be considered a successful undertaking. It has cost them little (economic aid has amounted to about .05 percent of their GNP, or one-twentieth of the share proposed by the UN for developed countries). They have scored evident political successes (most notably in Egypt). The Soviets have obtained increased amounts of raw materials and foods from the less developed countries. They have provided those countries with machinery and equipment of such poor quality that most of it was unsaleable at world market prices. Moreover, according to Soviet statistics many of those products have been surplus in the USSR during the past several years. Strategically, the Soviets have expanded their presence in both hemi- spheres and, as a consequence, also their opportunities for economic, military and political penetration. Adding to the strategic significance of Soviet aid is the nature of a number of projects included under economic aid. For example, roads and railroads built in countries bordering the USSR could be used for Soviet military purposes. Ports and shipping facilities, as well as fishing installations, have been financed in a number of countries by Soviet aid; these facilities could be used for emergency purposes by Soviet naval vessels and the far-flung Soviet fishing fleet, conceded by many to be an auxiliary of the Soviet Navy. Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 A roved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 '~ August 1970 SOVIET FOREIGN AID: THE SITUATION IN INDIA India has been allocated 25 percent of total Soviet aid pledged to the third world since 1954. The first Soviet economic aid to India involved the construction of the Bhilai Steel Works, agreement for which was signed in 1955. The Soviets' program has been extended to a total of 40 projects. The first Soviet offer of military aid was accepted in 1960, when the Indians contracted for $31,500,000 worth of transport aircraft and communications equipment. The amount of Soviet economic aid delivered to India in the past 15 years has totaled 87 million, or a bit more than half of the pledged sum of $1,612 million. Soviet military aid totaled $600 to $700 million through 1967 and had probably increased to about one billion dollars by 1970. In spite of Soviet claims that their aid to India has been large relative to India's economy, the opposite it true: Soviet foreign aid delivered during 1955-69, on a yearly average, has amounted to about one-seven-hundredth of Indian gross national product. Economic Aid A comparison of the scope of Soviet economic aid to India with that from other countries as of 1966 is given in Peter Sager's book Moscow's Hand in India. Sager found, on questioning them, that most Indians believed that Soviet aid, while not quite exceeding American aid, was increasing faster and was then only just behind the latter. The facts were quite different: at that time Soviet economic aid pledged to India amounted to only 16.5 percent of U.S. aid to India. The comparison is even less favorable to the Soviets when account is taken only of aid actually delivered, and of the fact that virtually all of the Soviet aid must be repaid whereas over a fifth of U.S. aid is non-repayable. Similarly only a limited number of Indians were aware that, besides the U.S., West Germany and the United Kingdom had, by mid-1965, actually delivered more economic aid to India than had the USSR. One reason for these erroneous Indian opinions was that Soviet aid has focused on impressive projects in heavy industry. (See the attached listing of the major projects.) More than half of the amount expended has gone for two steel mills; one, the Bhilai Steel Works, has been completed, and the other, the Bokaro Steel Works, is still under construction. Substantial shares have gone for factories to produce machinery and equipment, electric power plants, and petroleum refineries. Another possible reason for the in- flated Indian opinions about Soviet aid is that the construction stage of the projects has been stretched out, thus attracting inordinate attention. Indian expectations from Soviet aid were from the beginning understand- ably high as Soviet technological prestige in the 1950s was enhanced by achievements in thermonuclear weapons, jet aircraft, and space vehicles. However, the results over the years have sorely disappointed the Indians. Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 The first disappointments came from the inordinately long construction times of the projects. The Bhilai Steel Works, even though it was a show- piece and was given the highest priority by the Soviets, took five years to build (nine months longer than scheduled). The Neyveli electric power plant, the first stage of which had a capacity of 250,000 kilowatts, took from August 1959 to May 1964, a total of 57 months vs. the plan of 36 months. The Barauni. Oil Refinery, planned to be built in 21 months, took twice that long. (The Indians thus have known for some time what a Soviet official ,., meant when he confided to a Yugoslav visitor in 1969 that Soviet plants take so long to build that they are obsolete by the time they're completed.) The largest project currently under construction, the Bokaro Steel Works, is estimated by Indian MP's to be three years behind schedule. Soviet aid projects also cost more than planned. The Neyveli power plant,fbr example, cost a quarter more than planned. The Barauni Oil Re- finery cost almost twice as much as planned. And the Bokaro Steel Works, it is estimated, will cost 10 billion rupees, or more than half again the envisaged 5.9 billion rupees. Besides the excessive time and cost of construction, the Indians are critical of the economic planning that has gone into Soviet aid projects. The Bokaro Steel Works has been a particular focus of such criticism, as is abundantly clear in the attached articles concerning that project. Bokaro suffers in comparison with the earlier project at Bhilai. The latter was built to produce structural steel and rails and thus was relatively simple in design. The Soviets assigned some of their top engineers to Bhilai, and gave high priority to the development of plans and the delivery of equip- ment. This effort resulted in the project being completed only nine months late (almost unheard of in the USSR) and, because of Soviet subsidies, at a cost only about 20 percent in excess of estimate. Bokaro, in contrast, enjoys none of those advantages. It is to produce much more complex steel products, such as cold rolled sheet, galvanized steel, and tinplate. (The Soviets are having trouble at home in the production of these types of steel, as witness their purchases from Western Europe of cold rolled steel and their contracting with the British for the construction of a tinplate mill in the USSR.) The Soviet project officials apparently were unable to get a high enough priority assigned to the Bokaro project. Some of the equipment was delivered far too early and will have to be stored (and payments for it will have to be made) for several years prior to being in- stalled. There is no sign that the Soviets are making efforts to hold down costs. The Soviets have unaccountably revised the project so that fewer Indian manufactures and more Soviet manufactures will be used in construction. Indian parliamentary reports on the Soviet-aided pharmaceutical and sur- gical instrument plants at Rishikesh, Hyderabad and Madras and on the mining and heavy machinery plants at Durgapur and Ranchi reveal them to be technical and commercial failures. Basic Soviet planning failed to "take into account the local atmospheric conditions" in designing the pharmaceutical plants. App-4- For Release 1 99-97V UP? M-TSI~FAIO 40UOUG001" Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 As a result, at one plant the rusting of equipment led to a 40 percent rejection rate of the plant's production of antibiotics because of impurities.. The Durgapur machine plant, having reached only 11 percent of its targeted capa- city, has incurred an aggregate loss of 200 million rupees. (Additional de- tails are given in the attached press clips.) In an assessment of Soviet economic aid worked out by some Indian analysts, they conclude that the project approach worked poorly, and should be changed in accordance with India's changing needs, They find that complete new steel mills and electric power plants, even under the Soviet aid program, are too costly for India. They would prefer selected items of industrial equipment, as well as industrial raw materials and fertilizer. There is no indication that the Soviets would accept such radical changes in their aid program. Military Aid Soviet military aid, similarly, has not measured up to expectations. Starting modestly in November 1960, when the first Indian-Soviet arms aid agreement for air transport and military communication equipment valued at $31.5 million was signed, the program grew to a total magnitude of a billion dollars by the end of the decade. Its scope has expanded to include super- sonic aircraft, an air defense system, and submarines. From the Indians' standpoint such aid was desirable for the defense of their long borders and coastline. Moreover, most of Soviet military aid was offered at prices lower than those of Western countries and could be repaid in Indian rupees. From the Soviets' standpoint the program was attractive because it considerably increased their influence in India, helped bulwark India's defenses against China, and was inexpensive in that it involved mainly weapons systems no longer being produced for Warsaw Pact forces in exchange for Indian currency. India became the first non-Communist country to acquire the know-how to manufacture the Soviet MIG-21, under an agreement of October 1962. An air- frame plant at Nasik and a jet engine plant at Koraput were under construction in 1963 and production was to begin in 1965, according to New Delhi's Overseas Hindustan Times of 24 October 1963. In addition, a complementary electronics plant was built at Hyderabad, The Indians planned at first to assemble air- craft and engines with components shipped from the USSR; by 1970 they were to manufacture all the basic components from Indian raw materials. Prime Minister Nehru regarded the MIG-21 as a sturdy, comparatively un- sophisticated airplane, one for which the Soviets could establish the manu- facturing capacity in India in a relatively short time. Progress at the MIG- 21 complex casts doubt, however, on this conclusion. The Indian Ministry of Defense indicated in a 1970 announcement that it wasn't until 1968-69 that the Koraput Plant had begun production of MIG engines and the Nasik Plant had begun manufacture of MIG airframes "from raw materials." Both of these production dates exceeded the originally anticipated dates by two years or more. A 1970 statement on Air Force Day by Indian Defense Minister Mr. Swaran Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 Singh that "efforts are now directed towards minimizing our dependence on foreign supply for all military equipment" strongly suggests that the Soviets are still supplying the bulk or at least half of the components. In the final outcome, India m ay find it would have been cheaper to purchase the aircraft. Spare parts for the Soviet-made MIG-21 components are another problem. Indian Members of Parliament complain that an inordinately large number of MIG aircraft have been grounded because they lacked adequate spare parts. Under terms of a naval aid agreement negotiated in 1965, during India's war with Pakistan, the Soviets agreed to provide India with four submarines, and a total of a half dozen or so destroyer escort ships of the PETYA-class and naval patrol craft. Deliveries of these warships lagged through 1967, after which they were stepped up in apparent response to Britain's announced military withdrawal from the region east of the Suez, and as Britain and the U.S. continued to be reluctant to meet Indian requests for warships. In a companion development, the Soviets have participated in the construction of the large naval yard of Visakhapatnam on India's east coast. While it is too early to tell how the Soviet-built ships will withstand the Indian Ocean climate with its high temperatures and humidity, there is some evidence that the Indians have grounds for complaints about the naval side of Soviet military aid. Some delays in delivery were experienced. The costs of training Indian crews in the USSR have been high, $350 per month per man payable in hard currency. And the costs of maintaining Soviet naval officers in India are high because of the luxurious living standards that the Soviets insist upon. (See the attached press clips.) As with Soviet aircraft, the spare parts problem with naval vessels is aggravating, and ships have been tied up for repairs for what appear to be inordinately long periods. The Soviet involvement with Vishakhapatnam Naval Yard has stirred wide conjecture that the Soviets may be contemplating setting up a base for their own navy there. However, the Soviets, are well aware of Indian antipathy to the idea of foreign bases in the Indian Ocean, and for political reasons have not sought base rights to date. Nevertheless, if the Soviets felt the need to service or base their own naval vessels in the Indian Ocean they could readily use Vishakhapatnam where the facilities are compatible with Soviet-built ships and the base personnel are largely Soviet-trained. On balance, Soviet aid has provided the Indians with the means for ex- panding industry and equipping their armed forces. The costs, however, have been largely deferred, and repayment of India's debt has become a growing problem. In 1970 and later years, for instance, repayments will exceed Soviet economic aid by a significant amount, thus acting as a net monetary drain on the Indian economy. But the drain on the economy will undoubtedly or e ease 'f9S1O/O2 : -C1A-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 be far greater, in that there will be no economic return on the military aid, and limited return on the economic aid because a large share of the Soviet projects are incomplete and those that have been completed are yielding unsatisfactory results. Principal Soviet Aid Projects in India Bhilai Steel Mill Bokaro Steel Mill Heavy Machine Building Plant at Ranchi Coal Mining Machinery Plant at Durgapur Heavy Electrical Machinery Plant at Hardwar Electric Power Station in Neyveli Electric Power Plant at Korba Electric Power Plant at Singraul Hydroelectric Power Plant on Bhakra River Petroleum Refinery at Barauni Petroleum Refinery at Koyali Antibiotics Plant at Uttar Pradesh Synthetic Drugs Plant at Sanatgar Surgical Instruments Plant at Avadi MIG-21 Airframe Plant at Nasik Supersonic Jet Engine Plant at Koraput Aircraft Electronics Plant at Hyderabad Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 HANDELSBLATT, Duesseldorf 11 November 1968 The USSR has employed extensive propaganda at a cost of 70 million rupees to date (37 million German marks) to convinze the man on the street that it has extended to India more credits, loans; and developmental assist- ance than has any other country in the world. Better-informed circles know, however, that even in aid promised the Soviet Union lags behind the U.S., and that even in this area the U.S. aid is six times that of the Soviets. During the period April 1951-May 1968, aid promised by the U.S. amounted to 63.61 billion rupees (33.9 billion German marks) as compared with only 10.32 billion rupees (5.5 billion German marks) which the USSR promised by way of credits. An even more crass contrast is evident when the actual sums de- livered are compared. .'he actually-delivered aid payments made by the Soviet Union amount to only 5.46 billion rupees (Z.9 billion German marks), as com- pared with U.S. aid payments made in the amount of 58._47 billion rupees (31.16 billion German marks). Thus the U.S. has made ten times the funds available that the USSR has furnished. Unfortunately this is known to only a few well-informed persons in India. The same limited number of persons know that with respect to actually-rendered aid, the Soviet Union stands in fourth place, behind West Germany and Great Britain. During the above-mentioned time period, the FRG and Great Britain promised India aid in the amount of 8.02 billion rupees (4.27 billion German marks) and 6.2 billion rupees (33.05 billion German marks). But the ratio between promised aid and actual aid made available is unusually high with respect to both countries. West Germany has already paid out 6.88 billion rupees (3.68 billion German marks), while Great Britain has made available 5.53 billion rupees (2.95 billion German marks). Although the FRG stands in third place with res? ect to aid promised, it stands in second place, be- hind the U.S., in actual aid delivered. It is worthy of note that a vast discrepancy between aid promised and aid actually delivered exists only in the case of the Soviet Union and the bloc countries. The other Western countries and even the Far East can demoi- strate much better results in this regard. For example, Czechoslovakia promised aid in the amount of 990 million rupees (528 million German marks), but actually delivered less than half that amount, i.e.-, 440 million rupees (234.5 million German marks). Yugoslavia promised 940 million rupees but paid only one-quarter the amount (260 million rupees). The same was true of Poland, which promised 650 million rupees (346.5 million German marks) but made only one-third that amount (210 million rupees) available. These coun- tries were exceeded by Hungary and Bulgaria, which promised 250 million and 11 million rupees respectively but have made no payments whatever to India up to now. The Soviet and Soviet Bloc propaganda, which deals only with the promised amounts of aid, has achieved astonishing successes among the Indian Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 pople. A poll taken in 1966 by the Indian Institute of Public Opinion ?:owed that 89 percent of the individuals questioned knew that India was re- ceiving developmental assistance from the U.S.; 79 percent knew that the Soviet Union was also giving developmental assistance, whereas only 30 per- cent had heard of West German developmental assistance in spite of the fact that the FRG had rendered more assistance than had the USSR. In the field of foreign trade, too, which involves primarily an ex- chnnge of goods, and payments in rupees, the Soviet Union and the Soviet Bloc states are operating securely for their own benefit. The volume of trade be- tween the Soviet Union and India in the past two decades has increased 300 times. The USSR has so engineered the exchange -- apparently deliberately - - that a considerable credit balance in favor of India has resulted, in order that India can be forced to accept unwanted goods of inferior quality at exorbitant prices. Evidence of this fact lies in the most recent effort by the Soviet Union to purchase railroad cars and steel from India and to pay for them by delivering e.ircraft to India which are labeled by Indian experts as unfit for use by India. An increase in Indian imports from the Soviet Union in order to effect a trade balance served as the topic of negotiations which took place in Moscow at the beginning of October between the deputy chairman of the Indian Planning Commission and the competent Soviet minis- ters. On that occasion, the Indian delegation also raised the issue of finan- cial assistance because it had not yet been possible for India to make full use of the credits of 300 million rubles which the Soviets had promised. BALTIMORE SUN 2 April 1968 Indian And Soviet Navies Seem cou'l-thnig Cooperation By ,1D:1.11 CLYMER [Neon Delhi Bureau of The Sun) Cochin, India, April 1-The Indian Navy is acquiring at least three Soviet destroyer es- corts of the Petya class and the first two crews have gone to the U.S.S.R. f training, authorita- tive source:: disclosed today. Meanwhile India is consider- ing a So%ict request for "techni- cal i,:cilities" for its ships in In- ciian norts. While this term has r,a' spelled out in great de- of drydocks and repair dian Ocean. Admiral Nikolai Gorshkov, Soviet naval chief of !staff, suggested combined ma. neuvers when he asked for tech- nical facilities during a visit to India in February, the sources said. While the escort deal, and a submarine purchase which preceded it, have been in the works for some time, all these moves have, gained increased attention as a result of the Brit- ish decision to withdraw from bases east of Suez. While Adm. A. K. H. Phatter- ji, chief of the Indian naval s. staff, was apparently talking J inL;?scrcis:s Possible 'grandly last month in an unau- :;ossihie future Cie- rapidly groping 3ct:4een tl: kco na eserci es is 'ie In-i thorized boast that the Indian Navy would "fill the vacuum" created by the British with- drawal, the long-neglected In- dian Navy apparently hopes to become the strongest naval power in the area. While three Soviet ships steamed from Madras to Bom- bay today for the second stop of a goodwill visit, Adm. N. N. Amelko, commander-in chief of the Soviet Pacific Fleet, met Swaran Singh, Indian Defense Minister, in New Delhi. Details Of Talks Not Given No details of his talks with Singh or with Admiral Chatterij, last night and today were re- vealed. There are some important policy problems for India con- nected with the growing Soviet naval ties. Regardless of New Delhi's efforts to insist that a Chinese submarine threat-or Pakistan's arrangements to buy three French Daphne-class sub-, CPYRGHT marines pose a danger to its se- curity, these fears are met with) American and British skepti- cism. The British, who once were, the Indian Navy's only supplier and tutor, look dubiously on the Soviet role. Currently helping India build Leander-class frigates (more than twice the size of the de- stroyer escorts), the British in- sisted the U.S.S.R. Navy would' not be welcome at Bombay's Mazagon docks, where the pro-, ject is under way and the first; ;frigate will be launched in Octo- ,bcr..It will be completed in' 1971. The United States, which has ;never had any involvement with the Indian Navy, comes into the problem through the Conte and Symington amendments to this Approve or a ease- /02 IA-RDP7 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 CPYRGHT c::; foreign aid bill. T'rr Conte proviso particularly ?; i : ci require the Administra- lion to cut foreign aid to India by the amount it spends on new[ types of sophisticated weapons; ordered from abroad after Jan- uary 2 of the yeai. Arid the hard bargaining of the Soviet navy-it insists that agreements provide 3,500 calo- ries per day for Soviet officers assigned to India-has made th, terms seem extravagant. It is not because the Indian Navy's hopes are modest, but because the British presence it- Iself has been spread so thin east of the Persian . Gulf and I west of Singapore that no va Icuum is being newly created.', CURRENT, BOMBAY 25 October 1969 Eye On Indian Ocean The U.S.S.R. seems to be more than casually interested in establishing, a fl^et presence in the Indian Ocean, too, though it is a long way from Soviet ports. especially with the Suez Canal closed. For that reason, repair facili- ties are essential, though Brit- ish reports that the Soviet Union has asked for something as formal as "bases" are dis- counted here. Facilities For Subs, Escorts Already the Soviet Union has helped India develop naval fa- cilities at Visakhapatnam, mid- way up India's East Coast. These facilities are expected to provide servicing for the sub- marines and escorts the U.S.S.R. is supplying. But the naval cooperation has not always gone smoothly. The arrival in Bombay of the first of four of the SF-class attack submarines India is buying from the U.S.S.R. originally ex- pected this month, has been de- layed and is now not anticipated before June. It is understood that the sub- marine suffered damage and flooding during recent trials near Riga, and the two coun. tries' admirals are reported to be disputing who should pay the repair bill. Delay In Escort Delivery And the destroyer escort deal has also apparently met some delays. But two of the 1,050-ton, 30-knot escorts are now e:;pec:- ed before the end of the year, and the third early next. year, Two Indian crews are now in the - U.S.S.R. undergoing six- month training periods {for; which the Soviet Union charges) $350 per month per man, pay- able in hard currency, not in ru- bles or rupees). The third escort crew is ex- pected to go to the chief Soviet Far East naval port of. Vladi- vostok in July. The naval tie seems less oner- ous than it once did. Officials in New Delhi have found British representatives able to act more quickly and to make mi- nor decisions with less refer- ence to London than the Rus- sians must make to Moscow. CPYRGHT Rl1rdai -steel Plaa3==?-w~ -~~Al1~aA? ~nwA! AafA~ 00 r DO. Ila y EIZ3 Cj u D P r , L C,- 2 K-T From Our M.P. Correspondent L?a BIIILAI: The expansion of the Soviet-aided Blrilai Steel Plant from 2.5 million tonne-capacity to 3.2 million tonne-capacity will now be delayed by nearly a year. The reason is the delay by the Soviet Union in supplying cer- tain ecruipincnt, particularly Refractories, for the expan- sion of the Plant. That the Plant has come up with the USSR aid and assist- 'lnce, is a well known fact. The USSR assured a supply of Re- fractories for the Blast Fur- nace No. G being brought up to 3.2-million-tonne c p icity by 1]eccmbe.r this year. With this supply, the commissioning of the Blast Furnace No. 6, enab- ling the Plant to raise its pro- duction would have been pos- sible by September 1970. The USSR authorities have suddenly informed the Incliazt authorities that the equipment nrcaut for the )last Furnace No. 6 would now be delayed and their supplies could be ex- pected only by September 1970. The delay in the supply' will thus delay the increase of the Plant's production capacity by nearly a year, which means a loss of several crores of Rupees to the public exchequok in India. The reason for the ,non- supply of the Refractories in time, could not be and was not non-avai]ability of the material asked for by India. Thenon- supply, according to these-sour- ces had to do something with the change in the attitude of the USSR. towards India. R . fly Elm so `)BV EX Ierae;;..- tt;;d that of the 1};It;1tc r.cctor-Tatrt Iron and S1(c:1 Ccr.rtp^r;y fend the 11ui,.011 7r,)Il find fit(; 1 Cnnlpany-ls far .,hc,rt Of priat,e Soviet or;an1wtioii for dolnu this job .ncl the G61 has nominatec1 the ?SL. Both of them niut work ',within the framework of the, inter-governrn-ttal axree- me^it. "There.'o:., 'f Bokaro Stcel should want to place a turn-key job up to the bla;t furnace complex stage, let us sn"V. on fll-C. Tiaahpromex- pa.-t cannot vllbl" ly for?et her res.. Ponsibllitlrs M the matter. We can only do it with the consent and np.zrnval of 'rjaz.hpromexport be- caitCe their responsibility for the working of the entire plant still re- maln5." If thls interpretation of the fn:cr- novernmental agreement of Mr N. N. Warichoo !s correct, Bokaro has to he considcrrd n turn-key job' T 111.1z would become clear from s careful stuciv of the relevant do- ctnnents and statements made by Soviet rcnrrsetttntires. F inal say Bokaro is n turn-key job-but writ.h a difference. In all turn-key jobs, the parties nnde..rtaking them have the final say in all decisions re- latin to them as also hill respon- slbillty with suitable penalties for failure to comply v;ith the terms of the contract in regard to perfor- mance. In this case as with most r agreements. oviets, whilst eetaIning the final v in all the decisions. even the ucial ones, have seen to It that eir responsibilities are of the bar- 1 minimum. limited only to giving grantees that the equipment they nniv fully conforms to the DPR. ?i t this Is the case in all Soviet- ded projects with such rare ex- rPnttnYle ae Rh+`ni -ehm,l.4 I ous to any one Who is acel:a .?rc; with the IDPL:s plant.q and ;i1i Dort thereon by the Commit`e.> on Public Undertakings. In fact e.v"sv one of the deficiencies pointed :'n by the committee in regard to I7?I, ere manifest in the BSL, ct?h!ch i litergll.v fn11o rtntt in for fool .'ni of the AnHhln&ics ntant of Rishikesh. -(To be concluded) Search fignt on Bokaro-Il By K. V. SUMIAUNYAM amplest; 0114A 01 WN me o y which the Soviets have acquired powers unrelated to their responsibi- lities in the construction of Bokaro Is through having. the Government of India agree to the stipulation that: "except where otherwise provided the :DPR shall be worked out according to USSR norms, standards and re- gulations." The stipulation extends even to the dimensions of refrac- tories. Both Houses of Parliament were told that it was necessary to ac- ,cep- this stipulation as the Soviet organisations were required to give performance guarantees In respect .of the designs and equipment and that the question of loss on this account did not arise as all items of machinery and equipment that could be manufactured within the country were to be obtained from Indian sources. I am afraid the Mi- nister of Steel was not correctly brieqfed. It is surprising that those who briefed the Minister should be un- aware that by agreeing to this mop- atrdus stipulation they have enab- led the Russians - to send us their standard equipment such as the 100-tonne LD cmrvertors and 5.5 Million-tonne slabbing mill and hot strip mill with effects on both capi- tal and operating costs of Bokaro. Do not these higher capital and operating costs, either because the LD- convertors are of smaller size than are available from other sour- ces or because the rolling mills have excessive inbuilt capacity (5.5 mil- lion tonnes) whidh they may not attain even after ten years, re- present losses directly attributable to 0-,, accoDting Russian standards? Revelations At the meeting on December 10. 1969 to discuss the quality of steel Mr V. L. Agre, Chief Design F,n- gineer of the Soviets at Bokaro, made some extraordinary revelations. The minutes of the meeting should act as an eye-opener even to those blinded by propaganda and. make them see that Soviet welding techrOIO.Jy Is behind even that of India and far behind countries like Great Britain. West . Germany, Japan and USA and that Soviet LD convertor practice is to such a stage of development that they have far less confidence in the LD steel CPYRGHT CPYRGHT produced In their own country than we have in the LD steel produced In Rourkela. And, the entire steel production at Bokaro will be iron, LD convertors provided by the USSR! Another meeting held on Decem- ber 19, 1069 did little to, resolve this controversy as the Soviets did not agree to deviate from their spe- cifications already given in them design drawing as, in their view, killed quality steel for some of the important structures is very essen. tial. A reference has been made to the design Organisation in the USSR to reconsider the use of killed steel in view of the modiflcations for IS: 226 quality of steel. The Board of Directors has also approved sending a small delegation to the. USSR for finally deciding this issue with Soviet designers. And that is the most Interesting end to this con- troversy for the present at least. Effect of delays ?t The effect of there delays which 'Still continue on the progress of Bokaro can easily be gauged. Need there be any doubt that the aclop= tion of Soviet norms and stan- dards has been the cause not only of these delays but also of the los- ses arising therefrom? I It may be remembered that only a few months ago Mr N. N. Wan- choo as Chairman of BSL had sta- ted in public that every day's delay In the comtnissioning of Bokaro cost the nation Rs two crores. The Minister himself told the Ra ya Sabha on March 17, 1070 that the loss on this account was estimated at Rs 25 lakhs a month and that the delays were caused by factors beyond the control of the manage- ment, such as non-availability of steel plater, of killed qusflty fnr the fabrication of structurs}s, fail- ure of indigenous manufacturers to supply refractories in time, labour troubles and so on. It is not clear how labour trou- bles constitute a factor beyond the control of the project authorities unless there "has been gross mis- management. Be that as it may, the two other reasons are undoubt- edly due to our agreeing to Rus- sian standards, Since ,64 per, cent of the equip. Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-CPYRGHT ment, 37 per cent of the struc- tural and a large percentage of the refractories are to be procured from India, it may be asked whether the indigenous manufacturers are ex- empt from guarantees because they have to manufacture them not to Indian, but Russian, standards. Will the Ru.:;ians allow us to manufac- ture them to Indian norms, or, will they forge the guarantees in re- turn for our agreeing to manu- facture them to their norms? Need for probe As regards refractories, not much need be said except that a thorough inquiry by a high-level committee unconnected with the Ministry of Steel and Heavy Engineering, BSL and the Soviet organisations Jn India can bring out the whole sor- did story of the artificial shortage that wa created to provide plausi- ble excuses for delays of Bokarc due to other causes and lneidentall3 to enable imports from the USSR. It is necessary, however, to note here that the import content of refractories has been the highest in Soviet-aided steel plants whe- ther at the million-tonne stage or MARCH OF THE NATION, Bombay 9 May 1970 during expansion as compared to Rourkela, Durgapur, TISCO and IISCO, which fact ought to pro- vide the starting point for any such inquiry. The matter of the supply of *efractories has also figured dur- ing question hour in Parliament. The Minister of Steel stated that the domestic refractory Industry is unable to cater fully to the re- quirements of the steel industry for silica bricks needed for coke ovens and for high-grog fire-clay bricks needed for the blast furnaces be- cause many of the refractories producers are not equipped with facilities for production of these Items and those who have the necessary facilities are fully book- ed with orders and that an exa- mination whether any of the closed refractory units in the private sec- for can be taken over in the pub- lic sector is In hand. Why were these units closed? Closure of units especially that of the Asian Re- fractories built with Polish colla- boration and that of Assam Silmi- nite built with West German colla- A MARCH SPECIAL ust before Mrs Indira Gandhi inaugurated dril- ling operations at the Soviet-aided Aliabet Oil Exploration Project MARCH of the NATION stated categorically that the project was doomed to On March 21, 1970, this piper wrote: "If one looks behind the gorgeous facade of the project, one will find total incompete8ce, crippling red tape, and rampant corruption". The same, issue of MARCH said that at Aliabet there was "no planning, no organisation, no nothing", that the drilling rig had not even been properly "bedded", that its location was faulty, and that technicians on the s pot feared for their very hues because they had been or- dered to continue work in wea- ther ccinditioiis that were extreme- ly hazardous. MARCH of the NATION had also cited chapter and verse to prove that the ent"re project was ridden from top to bottom by graft, that exorbitant prices were being charged for equipment and materials. that bribes had to Ile given before bills were paid, and that the Soviet technicians who were supervising the project were woefully behind the times in oil technology and at complete loggerheads with Indian personnel. SENSELESS BRAGGING As for Dr Trigun i Sen, this paper had exposed the fact that by making grandiose commit- ments to have.tbe project in ope-' boration? On another occasion the Minister of steel stated In the Lok Sabha that permissible relaxations in inspection procedure for sup- plies from indigenous sources are being allowed without affecting the quality of refractories, of course after orders for imports of 22,000 tonnes have been placed and rur- ther orders for another 24,063 ton- nes have been finalised, both with, USSR. Why had these efforts at relaxa- tions to await repeated complaints from indigenous manufacturers and the appointment of a committee by BSL under the chairmanship of the Director of Central Glass and Ceramic Research Institute, Cal- cutta? have the were final sayo in the allowed accept- ance or rejection of refractories from indigenous sources If they are merely consultants and the respon- sibility for the construction of the Bokaro Steel Plant is that of BSL as the Minister of Steel stated in Parliament? Lastly, why were all these efforts to await the final- isation of the orders for the im Port of over 46,000 tonnes of re- fractories from the USSR? CPYRGHT ration' by a set time, he was plying ducks and drakes w(th the lives of the men on the shot to bring his foolhardy boasts to fulfilment. Despite the warnings of this naner, Mrs Gandhi merrily went ahead with the inauguration. She pressed the button, or cut the tape, or whatever it was, and the drilling rig, , supposed to be yet another monument to Indo-Soviet co-operation, went into action, FIZZLED OUT For twenty minutes or so every- thing went according to plan and Mrs Gandhi, her pleasant duty done, retired from the scene. Possibly the Lady does not know it even itioday, but the un- pleasant truth is that 20 minutes after drilling commenced . the p ove or a ea a IA- -4 C~YRGHT Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001- machine broke clown - when it was supposed to have gone on more or less indefinitely until it struck oil, This paper takes a particular pleasure in saying "we told you so" - for the simple reason that Aliabet was so completely un- practicable from the very start, so beset with ineffic'euey and technological bungles, that ,it should never have been launched in the first place. CLEAR WARNING It is no use pretending that these tliints just "hapocried". They would NOT have happen- ed if the Minister had known is job and allowed technically qualified people to get on with theirs, instead of tumbling over himself to oblige the Russians and to meet impossible political demands. According to a UNI report which has been featured adertu- ately only in s ecialised financial journals, the offshore drilling in the Gulf of Cambay suffered a setback "following some unexpect- ed local difficulties." The bunglers of A1'ahet can't get off quite that easy. Difficulties there certainly were, but these were hardly "unex- necled". III fact they were clear- ly foreseen by a host of on-site technicians, given in detail by MARCH of the NATION, and ignored only because of the wil- ful obtuseness of the Oil Minis- try. SHAMEFUL MESS The following UNI despatch, from the Economic Times of April 21, mikes sorry reading and should make the Oil Minis- try thoroughly ashamed of itself - if such a thing is at all possi- ble for a limb of our presept socialist government. NEFV DEI.III o India's first offshore oil drilling venture in the Gulf of Cambay is report- ed to have suffered a set-hack following some unexpected local difficulties. According to reliable reports reaching here, drilling opera- tions from the platform erected in the Culf, 40 lam. from Bhav- natrar port, had to he tempo- rarily suspen*led for two or three clays to nut right some of on back page from front page The drilling, which begpn after, the Prime Minister, Mrs Indira Gandhi spudded thew 11 on March 19, is reported to be extremely slow. The Oil and NatuaI Gas Commission (ONGC) had expected drilling of the ep- tire well (about 1,500 to 2,000 metres) to be completed befo;e the onslaught of monsoon. But drilling so far is report- ed to be about 100 metres onjy At the present rate the ONGC will not be able to complete more than 500 to 600 metres by May before the monsoon starts. It is, therefore, now consider- ed inevitable that, drilling has to be continued after the mon- soon in September or October. Conditions in the Gulf of Cambay are such that it is. im- possible for drilling operations to be continued during the monsoon. SPUTNIKS DA, OIL NYET As March of the NATION has pointed out several times during the past few months, the Soviet Union simply does not have the requisite oil technology for ex- ploration in the Gulf of Cambay. It is more than a decade be- hind the rest of the world and was given the franchise for ex- ploration simply because Delhi wanted to burn another joss- stick before Moscow's altar. It was given the franchise, more- over, over the head of rival offers to explore oil without any risk on India's part. By going ahead with the Soviet project, India is paying heavily simply in order that tine Soviets can catch up with the rest of the world. MORE TO COME One would think that Dr Tri- guna Sen would be satisfied with a single monumental blunder, but apparently Aliabet is not e ough, and he must go in for further losses. According to the Special Be-, presentative of the Financial Express of April 30, "The Union Government is in a quandary- since its oil venture on the Per- sian Gulf proved to be a net. liability." According - to this paper, ours oil ventures in the Persian Gulf`. are likely to land us in 50 laklhs hq;ses every year. As the paper puts it someww-", charitably : "What is more par:;- doxical is that this is so in spite of the fact that oil has been found and the total production from the field will be above ?r0 million tons annually." This Persian Gulf venture, inci- dentally, is in partnership with ENI of Italy and Philips Petro- leum of America. In this case the trouble is not with techno- logy at all, since oil has been discovered; it is apparently the financial deal concluded by the Government of India that has led to the loss despite oil being discovered. As the Financial Express says: "It is really unheard of to lose in the oil business after oil is struck in commercial quantities." "Unheard of"? Maybe else- where, certainly not in socialist India ! And what is the Government's reaction to these damning indict- ments of its ineptitude? Mr D. R. Chavan, Minister for State for Petroleum and Chemi- cals, bragged in the Rajya Sabha the other day that the Union Government had given Rs 199.06 crores to the Oil and Natural Gas Commission as loans and capital and added, with obvious satisfaction : "There have been no complaints about the work of ONGC, which is a fully autono- mous body and is now produ- c?ing 3.7 million tons of crude oii." There is hope yet, of course. One of these clays, perhaps ten years or twenty years from now, the Russian rig will finally str,ke oil in the Gulf of Cambay and all India's troubles will be over. That will be the clay ... Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 MARCH OF THE NATION, Bombay 9 May 1970 Ii CPYRGHT From Our Special Correspondent NEW DELHI : This week in the Lok Sabha Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was caught on the wrong- foot on the Bokaro issue. It seems she had been making "untenable statements based on wrong as- sumptions" not only to her Party men, but also to Parliament. During her budget speech on March 17, Mrs Gandhi told the Lok Sabha: "Mr Masani has alleged - I believe the word he used was 'brutal pressure' - that Indian consultancy has been pushed out of the job of consul- tancy it, Bokaro which had been promised to them. He has fur- ther alleged that the CEDB is nothing but a cover and a facade for the Soviet consultancy or- ganisation, Cipromex. There .is no question whatsoever of our acting under pressure, whether Suvict or Swatantra." BOAST BACKFIRES These brave words have back- fired, for it has now been irrefut- ably established that Dastur and Co were indeed pushed out of Bokaro under open, unabash- ed Soviet pressure, and not be- cause Mrs Gandhi wanted to create a Public Sector designing department or anything else. The refutation of Mrs Gandhi's "untenable assertion" has come from former Steel Secretary N. N. Wanchoo and present Steel Secretary R. C. Dutt in testimony before the Committee for Public Undertakings, which placed its 68th report on Bokaro Steel Ltd before Parliament a tew days ago. The Chairman of Bokaro, Mr N. N. Waaichoo, stated : "Dr Daslur wanted to bo the principal consultant for the project. The Soviet authorities who gave 200 million roubles were not willing to accept thil. "They stated this to the Minister and to me, and they said this at all levels. They said that they must remain in full physical authority of the project although they would associate Dcsturco". The present Secretary, with veiled contempt for Dasturco - ;-erhaps because he is Indian and not foreign? - has stated : "My own feeling is that after 1964, there was a change in em- phasis so far as the Government is concerned in regard to Das- turco; but we are still continuing to have Dr Dastur with highest consideration. "Having accepted Russian assistance in this matter and having all their experience apd expertise, I think that Govern- ment rightly felt it was not pro. per to go beyond what they (Russians) actually accepted in rcgnrd to Dasturco." PROOF OF PRESSURE It will thus be seen that while Wanchoo was at least honest enough to accept Soviet pressure at all levels as having been the cause for keeping out Dasturco, his successor tried to make a virtue of necessity by implying that the Russians were the re- positories of all wisdom in regard to steel technology, and by attempting justifying the exclu- sion of Dasturco except to the extent that the Soviet would tolerate them. The Committee on Public Undertakings (COPU) says that Dasturco were not associated jn the discussions which Bokaro officials had with Soviet collatw- rators after July 1984, although they were general consultants to the Ministry. The Committee adds that they were anxious to find out why Dasturco was kept out of the negotiations in August, 1964 and thereafter. But all that they could get by way of explanation from the Chairman of Bokaro and the Secretary of the Ministry was that the Russians were not willing to accept Desturco as principal consultants. These statements of both the Chairman of Bokaro and the Secretary of the Ministry were clearly designed to mislead COPU because, what actually happened as a result of the discussions during August, 1964, and there- after was that the Government' of India was made to give the design assignment for Bokaro to the Soviets on October 13, 1964, even before the inter-Government agreement was signed _ under which a contract had to Tie entered into between the BSL and the Soviet organisation fpr the preparation of the draft project report. It only means that, long before the contract for the DPR and its terms were settled, the design assignment for the DPR was given to the ?oviets, INCONVENIENT EXPERTS? Why was this done? The study of the assignment itself makes it clear that if its contents were known to the public - to say nothing of the Ministry's own consultants, Dasturco, who were kept out of the discussions - the Russians could not have got away with the conditions they wanted to impose. These conditions, it should be emphasised, were such that it was possible for them to give us whatever they chose to give even obsolete or second hand plants, and receive payment re- gardless of the quality of w1,at they gave in the form of know- how or equipment. An illustration makes this point clear. The blast furnaces are the first and the rolling mills the last components to be commis- sioned in any steel plant. The first stage of Bokaro involves production of 1.7 million tons and the second stage 4 million tons leading ultimately, by some unknown date, to- the 5.5 million The rolling mill equiy,me;it, which represents more than 40 per cent of the cost of a steel plant, was designed for 5.5 million tons, and it was this roll- ing mill, not the blast furnace equipment, that was first supp- lied,. soon after deliveries began. In this connection, COPU says : "it is also surprising ti;at Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 CPYRGHT CPYRGHT In respect of equipment supply, tllc contract with the USSR stipulated only an overall period of fifty months for the supply of equipment from the date of signing the contract, and did not include a phased delivery sche- dule. PAYING PADDED BILLS "The result was that while on the one and the supplies were deficient to the extent of 10,OQ0 tonnes for the first blast furnace complex, a large number of items for rolling; mills required much later had already been supplied." 't'he result of this defect in the contract in regard to )roper scheduling of supply of equip- nlvnt was that for the rolling mill equipment we will he pay- ing principal and interest therepn within a month of its despatch from the USSR. But the project will start yield- ing returns only after the first stage is completed - and that too only a fraction of its capacity, its full capacity being realised only in the unknown futurc, alter a minimum lapse of 15 years. COPLJ d-d not, however, say AMEN at the end of this devasta- ting; repnrt. The last word alas yet to bo said. HINDUSTANI TIMES, New Delhi 26 April 1970 ussian pall or viii!' 6aa ai'ies New Dslt?i, April 25 (UTNt) [Eleven Swatautra Wipe have pro `tested against the abnormal etno- luments" paid to Russian tecerni.? clans in-Soviet-aided projects and demanded an investigation into the functioning of these unite. In a joint letter to Prime MinL:. ter Indira Gandhi they said that aorne 943 Russian technicians were employed in 13 projects and their "aggregate emoluments amounted to Rr, 12.5 crores"; the per capita monthly salary v:ori:inz out to .Rs ,35,000, three and a', half times higher than thst. of even Or, T're, 'silent They" also a!'er } rt ci ti is i t~el 04 r,alarv s^^re; rt :n^r.on;:.Ile Viewed agein.'I 111) If,ccrs by 'Lila projects during ti~~ tart three years.--IM-87 to 19 & Gt;---amo: nt. ng to Rs 105 crores. Only three out of the 13 undertakings showed profit", The sJunntor;ea to the letter are, Mr N. Shivappa, ?fr R.' R. Singh Deo, Mr R. K. Amin, Mr D. Amat, Role Venkstanpa Nalk, Mr G. C. Naik, Mr S. P. Ramsmoorthy, Mr K. P. Sf;tgh Deo, Mr D. N. D. Mr M. K. Nani ra. 11111, - ;.1- ' ..t . Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 Arms for the Third World by: Wynfred Joshua and Stephen P. Gibert (EXCERPTS) Receptivity to Rt;ssian arm, aid overtures also facilitated the estahlts t- iuunt of Srn it:t military aid ties with India. Before the first Soviet; Indian toms aid w-'rccntcnt in November 1960. India filled its defense require- ments ill western nations-mostly in Britain. Anxious to reinforce its cxuumitnlent to non-alignment in international relations, India wanted to rcducc its dependence on the west for arms and diversify its supply sources. Equally important, India regarded Pakistan as a major threat to its position on the Asian subcontinent and sought to acquire modern ccluiprnent to match the weaponry Pakistan received from the United Stings. According to Indian spokesmen, only the United States and the Soviet Union were able to furnish the heavy transport aircraft and heli- coptcrs suited to India's high altitude and climatic conditions.'' When the Soviet Union proposed to meet Indian demands for considerably less cost than the United States, and when Moscow, unlike Washington, was prcpared to receive payment in Indian currency or commodities, India dceiclcd to accept the Soviet offer.'--, The arrangement reportedly cov- ered some 531.5 million in Soviet aid and included eight An-12 and twventy-four 11-14 transport planes, ten Mi-4 helicopters, and equipment for the development of communications in India's northern border zone. "; From a Soviet point of view, the estahlishntent of a Russian military. assistance presence in India was in part a response to American arms aid diplomacy in the SI:A'FO area. The Soviet Union wanted to oltset 11:5. weapons a,icl, to Pakistan and to counter American efforts to trcn,~titen the northern tier. "Taking advantage of Indian concern over Pakistan's defense buildup, Moscow moved to add New Delhi to its arms acid recipients. By diminishing India's reliance on western military cyuipntent and technology. Moscow hoped to undermine western in- Ilucnee in India and to link New Delhi store intimately with Moscow. Soviet tram aid further served to identify Soviet policy with India's na- Iion;ilist aspirations. 'the 1962 accords sought particularly to underscore this point. In early 1902, and again in the summer of that year, India received new credits to finance additional helicopters and transport craft.'? More importantly, the Soviet Union agreed at the same time to hcfp India build two production facilities. ']'lie Iirst would produce and asticn;hlc 1liC,-2Is; the second would manufacture engines for a super- sonic jet under developntcnt in India.'" The Soviet Union also pledged t, deliver a mtmhcr of MiG-21 jets which India claimed it needed to counter Pakistan's acquisition of F-104 fighters from the United States."' 'Thus Anterican military aid to Pakistan again facilitated a Soviet mili- tary aid initiative in India. '' Scc rile dcfcmc of the Indian-Soviet arms accord by Defense Minister V. K. ..rishna Mellon. iiiculu.%(,n Times (New Delhi), April 13, 1961. c /rri..thm .Srir/lee Monitor, October 15, 1960; Tunes of India, October 4, .1960. Tunes of liana, October 4. 1960: New York Tiirre.c. April 2, 1961. N, n' York Tirane, February 1, 1962: Christian Science Monitor. August 24, 96-'. .V 'irk 7 imec. August IS, 1965 ibid., August 24, 1962. In September 1961 the InJi:ur ,ncuuncnt had purchased six Soviet jet engines for the HF-24. Because of India's di~saliafaction with the pcrforn1 cc of Soviet engines, however, the ,uzrecmcnt to m:muf;rcturc engines for the IIF--24 did not materialize. ' 11imbist,,z Times, June 24, 1962. CPYRGHT Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A0004000800dPRGHT !)urin,1. I95`,' it spite of earlier declarations of mutual friendship, Sin' -Indi:m relations hct,,rrr to deteriorate. While the reasons for mutual discnclrintnicnt were complex. a major point of contention was India's stresti on neutralism rather than anti-colonialism, i.e., the anti-American valiant of neutralism that China insisted that neutrals follow. China also claimed certain areas of India's Flimalayatn border region.' Chinese forays into Ladakh Province at India's northern border in 1959 created further friction between the two countries. In addition China deeply resented lkloscow's attitude in the Sino- Indian border clashes. The Sovie-t Union, careful to avoid jeopardizing Soviet-Indian relations, but reluctant to offend China, adopted a neutral position in a conflict between its communist ally and a non-communist power. r The outbreak of the Sino-lndian border war in October 1962 placed Moscow in all even more difficult position, particularly with respect to its nilitary aid program to India. In the summer of 1962 the Russians had made new aid coimnitments, providing for the supply of MiG-11s and the establishment of MiG-21 factories. Continued Soviet arms aid to India risked serious damage to the already precarious Sino-Soviet relationship at a time when the Russians needed solid communist back- ing against the west it) the Cuban missile crisis. Accordingly, Moscow initially endorsed a Chinese cease-fire proposal.'?" But the Soviet Union also feared that cancellation of its pending arms aid commitments io India would be interpreted as support for Peking, against New Delhi, which might drive the latter into an a!ignnrcnt with the west. The prompt US. response to India's appeal for military aid against the Chinese had, iii fact, touched off demands in various Indian circles for a reassessment of India's non-ali,i ntrient policy. Soviet vacillation with respect to the Soviet-Indian MiG transactions suggested the dilemma the Russians faced. Soviet sources first indicated that the MiG agreements with India would he shelved, " BBy December 1962 the Russians had shifted their position and announced that it few MiG-2]s would be sent as samples alnd that the licensing arrangements for the production of MiGs in India werc still in elfcct.~"" In the first half of 1963 six MiG-21 fighters and a iitinihcr of Mi-4 helicopters arrived in India. Negotiations in 1963 and eairly I964 led to Soviet awreements for the delivery of An-12 cargo phriics and air-to-air missiles for the Mi(i fighters and for the establish- ?-y u, cusscu in William E. (iriit tfi, iii,' .Sino-Arri'icf Rif! (Cambridge: M.I. t . Press, 1963)? ph? 'I he ('pros c did not make their resentment public until 1963 when they called he Sm ict p ,sition in the Sino-Indian border dispute a "betrayal of pro- let;iri,m inlern,ctiunalism."_ See Arthur Stein, "India and the USSR: The post-11 I'crrod." ;Iluur .S'gu,tv, vol. 7, no. 3 (March 1967). p. 169. " l'rrn'Ja, October 25. 1962. It is not certain whether the Cuban confrontation and the Chinese crossing of the Indian border were isolated developments. The Psnssi:ms r fated Chinese claims that they knew of the Chinese action beforehand. Ong, i i..5. cliokir suggests that the Romans had not expected India's defeat, which forcrd them to take a position in favor of India and to cut oft' Soviet military, supplies to China. See Arthur Stein, "India and the USSR," p. 31. " it u.rlrin,tron !'uo(, October 30 1962 For a di i , . scuss on of the negotiations on the \li(i deals, see I:ui C. ('. Graham, 77re Indo-,Bonet AI1G Deal and Its Inter- ,urrional Reperrnssionc, Rand Corporation P-2842 (Santa Monica, Cal.: Rand Corporation, I961). For the Indian positian in the MiG deals, see Selig S. f}nrrison, "l',ouhlcd India and Her Neighbors," Foreign Affairs, vol, 43, no. 2 Il;rnuruT 1965), p. 325, 'New York 7'i1nes, December 2, 1962, Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 CPYRGHT uiC,lt of a $40 million SA-2 anti-aircraft missile complex in India," Bmid-I964 Soviet military sales totalled some $140 trillion."'= But the RL,sians refused to modify the MiG fighter by adding all-weather and night capabilities to meet Indian requirements for an interceptor at the Ilimalayan border. The implementation of the licensing accord also continued to encounter delays. '['lie abatement of Sino-Indian tensions helped the Soviet Union out of the awkward position of aiding a communist nation's adversary. Moreover, the widening Sino-Sovict split accentuated Russian interest in bolstering India as a counterweight to China on the Asian continent. In September 1964 the Soviet Union extended a credit to India for some $300 million in arms aid, including forty-four MiG-21 jets, twenty helicopters, and seventy PT-76 tanks."; Moscow finally undertook to m ake the necessary financial and technical arrangements for building MiG--21 s in India.--,' The Russians further consented to make the re- quired improvements for turning the MiG into an all-weather and night- flying interceptor. Tile September 1964 accord indicated that Moscow was prepared to revert to its earlier policy of extending substantial arms aid to India in order to contain both the United States and China in south Asia. The eruption of the Indian-Pakistani border war of September 1965 once more placed the Soviet Union's carefully balanced policy in South Asia in jeopardy. It mart' be recalled that in the course of 1963 the Soviet Union had initiated a policy of intrusion directed at countries closely identified or formally aligned with the west. As part of this intrusion policy''" the Soviet Union had also started to try improving its relations with Pakistan. A modest economic aid agreement in August 1963 and a commercial loan to Pakistan in July 1964 were the first steps in this direction. A major obstacle to a Soviet-Pakistani rapprochement re- trained the Indo-Pakistani conflict over Kashmir, in which Moscow had taken New Delhi's side. 'IThe Russians, therefore, began to moderate their previous categorical support of India on the Kashmir issue.r'c' Pakistan had gradually retreated from its alignment with the west in protest over what it regarded as Washington's increasingly pro-Indian polies American efforts to help shore up the Indian defense forces after the Situ-Indian border war of 1962 had intensified the concern in "' Ibid., August 2, 1963: ibid., May 13, 1964; Washington Post, May 9, 1964; t.sian Recorder, April 1-7. 1964, p. 5747. Neiv York '11me', .September 13. 1964. Washington Post, September 16. 1964; New York Times, September 22. 1964. rlccordiug to Indian reports, the plants were expected to be in operation by I'Itcti -69. lli,rda ii eeklp Review, March 28, 1966. The plants were still under Construction in 1968. Soviet intrusion efforts are more fully discussed in Chapter 2 of this study. "'I he gradual Soviet switch on Kashmir has been analyzed in Sheldon W. Simon, "The Kashmir Dispute in Sino-Soviet Perspective," Asian Survey, vol. 7, no. 3 1 \larch 1967). pp. 170-87, "' for a presentation of Pakistani views on U.S. policy toward India and Pakistan, see Khurshid II der, "Recent -trends in the Foreign Policy of Pakistan," 7 /tr lr ,old Today, vol. 22, no. I I (November 1966), pp. 482-91. Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A00031DQMQIQI -4 Pakistan over the reliability of U.1. support in its dispute with India over Kashntir. In consequence, Pakistan's leaders had begun to culti- vate relations with the Chinese, whose support could be expected, and with the Russians. Inevitably, relations with Washington suffered. Tile United States, moreover, was reluctant to contribute to an Indo- Pakistani arras race and delayed a Pakistani request to replace its F-86 fighter-bomber fleet with more up-to-date craft. When the Indo-Pakistani border fighting broke out in September 1965 and the United States promptly suspended all defense deliveries to the two feuding states, Pakistan accepted a Chinese offer to replace some of its depleted assets with MiG-19 jets, 11-28 bombers, and T-59 tanks.-' The Russians, unwilling to alienate either the Indians or the Pakistanis, refrained front taking sides and urged a peaceful settlement of the conflict.'" Moscow furthermore could ill afford to have a war at its southern border ill. which the Chinese threatened to become in- voivcd.'" 'I his partly explains why the Soviet Union assumed the role of peace-maker at the Tashkent Conference of January 1966. Although the perennial Kashmir problem remained unsolved, the Russians suc- ceeded in obtaining an agreement between India and Pakistan for a return to the status duo ante helium. Soviet actions did not imply a reversal of Moscow's policy toward India. Ill contrast to the United States, the Soviet Union did not halt its military acid to India during the uar,'tr In fact, while the lighting was still in progress the. Russians agreed to supply India with four submarines, Pctya class destroyer escorts, and naval p;itrol craft.''-' At approximately the swine tune the Indians were also permitted to buy a large number of tanks from the Soviet Union and ('ieeIioslovakia.",t Although Pakistan's leaders, who recognized their vulnerability in relying on Washington for ants ;lid, approached Moscow illJune 1966 for military aid, the Rus- siaus postponed action on Pakistan's request to avoid arousing Indian hostilit`. Soviet uneasiness over ('hinese inroads in Pakistan, however, progres- sively intensified. In an effort to counter Chinese influence, Moscow supplied some twelve Mi-6 helicopters to Pakistan in the second half of 1967. A small group of Pakistaniairnten was sent to the Soviet Union for training. The total value of Soviet arms aid to Pakistan was re- "'1110 agreement with China NN?;ls rclx,rted to he worth between $30 million and S-1(t Million. Nci ) oik Times. September S. 1967. " Pravda, August 24, 1965: ibid., September 12, 1965. `? Soviet %%Iitings have emphasized from time to time the strategic location of kashmir: see S. 'itkoyaa. "Kashmir: labloko Ruzdora," Litcratur,taio Gozera (Moscow). October 28, I91,5. as cited in R. Vaidvanath, "Sonic Recent trends in Soviet Pelicic, toward lacks and Pakistan," ILrreriariorral .Studies (New Delhi); vol. 7, no. 3 (January 1966), p. 4,44. The Russians warned the Chinese against any intcnention on behalf of 1'akistan. Pravda, September 22, 1965; ibid.. September 23, Ions. " lice quc,lion of sec pending Soviet military aid to India during the fighting actually did not arks. As one observer noted, it was a fortunate coincidence that the weapons on order were not ready for delivery. Zafar Inn an, "Soviet Asian Policy 'Iod;i ('orucvii'orri_t' Bering, vol_ 209, no. 1 (July 1966), p. 14. indium l'.rhr ss, September 7. 1965. Reports of the inclusion of destroyer escort, wcrc not publicized until lc)bti. Sc,.' Sin (Baltimore), April 2, 1968. Subsequent news r?eicaucs revealed that India was allowed to purchase more than five hundred Soviet and Czech t:mks. New York Tinuu. June 1. 1967. " Ibid., September S. 1967. I'aki,tan also received some military trucks. In view of the !incited ,tcpply of materiel Pakistan received, the actual dollar value of ntiilitary aid w;:s probably half the reported estimate of $10 million. "' il'u. hi~t,wr>i Post, August 6, 1967. Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 CPYRGHT porfe,I to be about s lo million.- 'I-o reassure India, Soviet officials stress,?d that they would not make any lethal weapons available t Pakistan.'`, A more important gesture to allay Indian fears was the con- clusion of act;otiations with New Delhi in the latter part of 1967 for the delivery of scale one hundred Su-7 tighter-bombers,") which would in- crease the ground attack capability of the Indian air force. With the Su-7 agreement, cumulative Soviet arms aid to India totalled between $6O0 million and S700 million.'; '['lie decision to aid India's enemy i its defense needs nonetheless represented a distinct change in Moscow' south Asian policy and underscored its growing concern over Chines influence at its southern border. '111c di ribution of Soviet military aid in South and Southeast Asia shows 'tiat Indonesia, India, and Afghanistan were the countries to whir Russian leaders attached the greatest importance. Indonesia re- c cd by far the largest share of the Soviet arms aid dollar in the region. While aid to Afghanistan in absolute dollar amounts was rela- tively limited, in relation to the size of the defense budget of a recipient, Afghanistan had received more aid than any. other recipient-6-4 The transfer of' highly sophisticated weapons systems to these three recipients further underlines their significance in Soviet policy. Each acquired the MiG-21 jet; in fact, Indonesia was the first country outside the bloc to receive the MiG-21. India, although receiving less total aid than Indo- nesia, appeared to be the most privileged recipient among the three states, in that India was the only one to obtain a licensing agreement to produ,:e and assemble MiG-21s at home. All three acquired batteries of SA--2 Guideline missiles. Indonesia and India were the only two countrics, other than Egypt, which were able to negotiate agreements for submarines. Each of the three major recipients in South and Southeast Asia de- voted a substantial share of their aid credits to strengthening their air forces. By the cud of 1967 the Indonesian air force had acquired at (cast eighteen MiG-2]s and twelve MiG-19s equipped with air-to-air guided missiles, about one hundred older type MiGs, twenty-five Tu-16 bombers armed with air-to-surface missiles, 11-28 bombers, An-2, An- ]2, and I1-14 cargo craft, and Mi-4 and Mi-6 helicopters. The Indian air force included as a minimum sixty MiG-21s, fifty 11-14 and An-12 transport planes, and sixty Mi-4 helicopters. A few of the Su-7 fighter- bontbers had already arrived in late 1967. Afghanistan had received an undisclosed number of MiG-21s, more than one hundred MiG-17s, a small force of MiG-15s, two squadrons of 11-28 bombers, and various transports, trainers, and helicopters."" The aircraft types indicate that all three recipients had acquired defensive as well as offensive systems. Sovict bloc additions to the Indonesian navy similarly showed that Djakarta had been allowed to select ships with both defensive and "' f his estimate is based on the successkc arms deals, as reported in the press, from the first agreement in November 1960. The 11)67 agreement for about one hun,,,cd Su-7s has been estimated at approximately '100 million since the Su-7 usually rusts around $I million (IT'ashin,Llon i'mt, January 25, 1968). In 1065, for cxa iiple. Afghanistan's defense Imdget was only $23 million. U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, World-]fide Military Expenditures and ltrl,,ted Dater, Research Report 67-6 (Washington, 1967), p. 10. "' 1)at,r derived from Institute for Strategic Studies. Military Balance, pp. 42-43; Wood, Middle Lust. p. 12; and reports from Indonesian. Indian, and U.S. news- 1);1lMrrs. Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 CPYRGHT '1 ahlc 4-1. I tiutatcd Si ict llloc Arms Aid to South and Southeast Asia 1956 through 1967 (In Millions of U.S. I)edIars) AIglianist:ul...... .. .. _............. $260 pakist,ut ............. 5 to 10 L... . ...... _ . .... _. _.. .............. 600 to 700 Insure is 1.200 Lac.:.. ...... -3 to 5 ('anibucli;+ 5 to 10 Iistiniatcd Total: S2,185 tiourees: I:,Iinr.ues inn' I';rkititan. India, and Indonesia are derived front sOUrees docun rated n ;}rc% I>o;,c,. li,tint;rtes for Laos and Cambodia are based on costs of equipment reported in the pie-, were calculated on the basis of approximate costs of comparable U.S. equipment .11111 assunlc(I to include support equipment for aircraft, tools, and spare parts. i h, cstiiu,itc Ii>r A('ghanisum is similarly ba icd an equipment costs and on a comparison of I1I911: ceunonn( aid with total bloc aid to Afghanist to as reported in the New York Times, 'slay 28, 1967. The Indian navy in 1967 did not show muctt evidence of Soviet ilt- fluc11CC. The first Indian-Soviet naval aid agreement had been nego- tiatcd as recently as 1965. Only two submarines were ready and some patrol craft had arrived in India by the end of 1967.J1 Further Soviet penetration of India's naval establishment is likely to he encouraged by Britain's withdrawal from the region cast of Suez and by continued British and U.S. reluctance to meet Indian rc(luests for warships. Each of the key recipients also obtained Sovict.help in modernizing it' ground forces, although in Indonesia the army receive([ only a relatively small sharc of the weapons deliverieti to that country. The Indonesian army iicquired only PT-76 tanks, armored personnel carriers, jeeps, anti-aircraft guns, artillery, and light 11-111S.7 1 The relative lack of armor for the army reflected partly the environment and partly Indonesian army doctrine emphasizing the signifi ance of guerrilla warfare. There were also strong indications that Indonesia deliberately limited re- (lu(-sl.s for army cyuipn)cnt. i J.'quipntcnt the Indian army received in lllacknlan, cd.. 1-i,,Jinn.; Ships, pp. 137-42. ()ac rc:lmm is that the ii ival revolt in early 1965 seriously undermined the rife tivcnrss Of the ln.loncsian navy. lllackni in, 1 if lrlitrc Slips. p. 137. ,\'r}r York '/ ime.s, April 17, 1967; institute for Strategic Studies, Strategie Survey 1907 (London, 19611), p. 33. institute for Strategic Studies. hlililarv Balance, p. 43, Sukarno wanted to build up the air force and the navy to offset the powers of the tinny. The former tudoitcsian Artily Chief of Stair and Minister of Defense (;cncial Nasution and his aides, who negotiated most of the various arms deals, 'sere careful to avoid too much dependence on Soviet military aid where the itnlv was concerned, and were prepared to make the larger share of Soviet credits :i tiLihle to the air force ;tad the navy. interested above all in consolidating their 1>usc?r in Java, the army leaders (lid not regard the air force and the navy with the Ivpe of wcapnns each acquired as threats to the achievement of this ohjective. Nasnlion could with impunity reserve only a limited share of the aid credits for the ;acquiition of :irmy materiel because: (1) the cost of army materiel was small compared to that of air and naval craft; (2) when Soviet arms aid began, the :only already had a fair amount of small arms and some capability for producing shall arms, while the other services had virtually no capability at all; and (3) L.S. ntilit;try aid was primarily chatlncled to the army. Nasution's efforts to keep the mnly free from aver-reliance on the Soviet Union were reflected in his emphasizing "hcrdiknri" or self-reliance mission and in his rcgt:esting arms work- shops from the R issians. See Indc,ru'sian Herald, May 5, 1905; ibid.. May 25. 1965. Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000400080001-4 CPYRGHT eIuded more Man live humlrcd light ( I'I'-76) and medium tanks with ;i mru and t)e',n m guns. The eighty-thousand-man Afghan army, like the Al`;han air farce, was aituelst c C,,lpons and counted, among others, some one hundred medium 'I? -54 and light I'1?-76 tanks.' :u thcr cast, Moscow has made considerable progress toward replac- ng western military in}luence with its own. The Soviet Union has be- ?onre India's largest source of military supplies and has succeeded in creating Bruited arms aid tics with Pakistan. Yet Soviet military aid policies in these Countries turned out to he extremely vulnerable to pres- sures caused by actual and potential changes in the political-military po cr constellation on the Asian subcontinent. The potential threat of China in south Asia and the regional conflict between India and Pakistani circumscribed the Soviet Union's frecdum of maneuver in its aid policies. The Russian dilemma resulting from the Sino-Indian border wai in Oct her 1962 caused delays and obstacles in Soviet-Indian arms aid discussions. When the negotiations were finally resolved in favor of India, it served as a warning to China to restrain its ambitions in the rcgi