THREE ARTICLES FROM SPECIAL ISSUE OF 'SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN,' SEPTEMBER 1976, ON THE WORLD FOOD PROBLEM.

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 30
• Document Creation Date: November 11, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 6, 1998
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 11, 1977
• Content Type: MAGAZINE

Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA
Three articles from special issue of "SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN,"
September 1976, on the world food problem.
Through the 1950's and 1960's worldwide food consumption rose
somewhat faster than the population growth rate and nutritional levels
therefore improved. In contrast to that period, recent evidence
suggests that in some parts of the world, especially in South Asia and
Africa, population growth rates are down because death rates are up,
largely because of food shortages. Furthermore, other areas of the
world, including North America, no longer have the vast reserves of
grain from which aid was supplied in the years preceding the 1970's.
The bumper wheat and corn crops which were expected in the U.S. for
1977 are-now in question because of the severe winter drought, thus
diminishing the opportunity to accumulate a substantial food reserve.
The first of the attached articles provides considerable back-
ground information on the nature of world food shortages and the
primary solution to this problem, which is to increase production of
basic food crops throughout the world. There follows an analysis of
the scope of human hunger, involving an estimated 500 million people
who suffer from malnutrition and another one billion who would benefit
from a more varied diet. The third article examines the need for poorer
countries to modernize their agricultural techniques and to revise their
rural economies if they are to raise food production, income and living
standards.
Although the subject of food aid programs has become controversial,
there is little controversy over helping others to grow more food.
These articles substantiate the widely held view that self-help is in
fact crucial to alleviating food shortages, in spite of the complex
problems involved, since the alternative -- continued hunger and in-
creasing starvation -- is worse.
 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
tabiished 1845 AMERICAN September 1976 Volume 235 Number 3
30 FOOD AND AGRICULTURE, by Sterling Wortman
An issue on the food problem. The outlook is hopeful, if development stresses agriculture.
40 THE DIMENSIONS OF HUMAN HUNGER, by Jean Mayer
The number of poorly nourished or undernourished people is roughly an eighth of mankind.
50 THE REQUIREMENTS OF HUMAN NUTRITION, by Nevin S. Scrimshaw and Vernon
R. Young The requirements of individuals and populations are statistical approximations.
-- _ _ ~n-?~ -LA t1-'IL VII- 1, 1Nu11t1i1V1N, by Jules Janick, Carl H.
Noller and Charles L. Rhy kerd Energy and nutrients are processed by chains of organisms.
_ _ _- - -- ? , _, - r,_ as.an~..~ 11111 I'V"U.ttlJri MAIN, by Jack R. Harlan
Man and the plants and animals he has domesticated in 10,000 years are now mutually dependent..
98 AGRICULTURAI, SYSTEMS, by Robert S. Loomis
What crops are grown where is set by a combination of ecological, economic and cultural factors.
106 THE AGRICULTURE OFTHE U.S., by Earl O. Heady
Its productivity is the result of development policies that have been pursued for two centuries.
128 TILE AGRICULTURE OF 'MEXICO, by Edwin J. Wellhausen
The country where the "green revolution" was begun is trying to extend it to the poorer farmer.
154 THE AGRICULTURE OF INDIA, by John W. Mellor
It does better than one rr,ight think, but development may need more agricultural emphasis.
164 THE RESOURCES AVAILABLE FOR AGRICULTURE, by Roger Revelle
The physical resources of earth, air, fire (energy) and water are far from being fully exploited.
O AGRICULTU
---- - -- ---- ---?__-.-.
RAL PRODUC IONV, by Peter R. Jennings
The green revolution rests on the breeding of crops adapted to the needs of intensive agriculture.
196 THE DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, by W.
David Hopper ` It needs additional technology and capital from the developed countries.
- DEPARTMENTS
8 LETTERS
12 50 AND 100 YEARS AGO
18 THE AUTHORS
66 SCIENCE AND THE CITIZEN
206 MATHEMATICAL GAMES
212 BOOKS
220 BIBLIOGRAPHY
BOARD OF EDITORS Gerard Piel (Publisher), Dennis Flanagan (Editor), Francis Bello (Associate Editor), Philip Morrison (Book Editor),
Trudy E. Bell, Brian P. Hayes, Jonathan B. Piel, John Purcell, James T. Rogers, Armand Schwab, Jr., Jona-
than B. Tucker, Joseph Wisnovsky
WART DEPARTMENT Samuel L. Howard (Art Director), Ilil Arbel, Edward Bell
=aoD.;CTIoNDEPARTMENT Richard Sasso (Production Manager), Carol Hansen, Michelle Lynn and Leo J. Petruzzi (Assistant Production
Managers), Zelda Gilbert, Sandee Gonzalez, Julio E. Xavier
COPY DEPARTMENT Sally Porter Jenks (Copy Chief), Judith Friedman, Dorothy Patterson, Kathy Scheinman
GEN=_AA. MANAGER Donald H. Miller, Jr.
ADVERT SING :);RECTOR C. John Kirby
SS's'AN' TO THE PUsL:SHER George S. Conn
CIRCULATION MANAGER-William H. Yokel
PL3L,SHED MONTHLY BY SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN. INC.. 415 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK, H Y 10017. COPYRIGHT (c) 1378 BY SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN. INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVE D
P R N7ED IN THE U SA NO PART OF THIS ISSUE MAY BE REPRODUCED BY ANY MECHANICAL PHOTOGRAPHIC OR ELECTRONIC PROCESS. OR IN THE FORM OF A PHONOGRAP RE-
CORDI.NG. NOR MAY IT BE STORED NPAA RETRIEVAL SgY~STEM. TRANSMITTED PC) HERWISE CCPIEO FFOOgRMPUBLIC 1OR PRIVATE USE WITHOUT WRITTEN PER HIC
O }
MISSION OP THE PUBLISHER
CA ?OJS,CO~S POSTAGE PAID AT NEW YORK. N Y., AND T C~ EFV1 86109 a r9 DI ~I~777V~7lV OFFI 4AP 9-0, +1AV =i11DJP~FN 0 R COL '
qP S EP V4 S O !~ TTA.NA
NTRIES
 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
THE AUTHORS
STERLING WORTMAN ("Food
and Agriculture") is a vice-president of
the Rockefeller Foundation. A plant ge-
neticist by training, he holds degrees
from Oklahoma State University and
the University of Minnesota. Since join-
ing the staff of the foundation in 1950 he
has worked as a corn breeder in Mexico,
a pineapple breeder in Hawaii and a rice
breeder in the Philippines. He has been
based at the foundation's New York
headquarters since 1966, when he be-
came director of its agricultural-sciences
division: he took up his present job four
years later. Wortman currently serves as
president of the International Agricul-
tural Development Service and as a
member of numerous boards and com-
mittees, including three for the National
Academy of Sciences: the Board on Sci-
ence and Technology for International
Development, the Committee on Schol-
arly Communication with the People's
Republic of China and the Steering
Committee of the President's Study on
Food-and Nutrition. In past years he has
been a trustee of the International Rice
Research Institute in the Philippines,
vice-chairman of the board of trustees
of the International Maize and Wheat
Improvement Center in Mexico and a
member of the World Bank Advisory
Panel on Agriculture and Rural Devel-
opment. Among his many honors he
was the recipient last year of the Ameri-
can Society of Agronomy's award for
international service in agronomy.
JEAN MAYER ("The Dimensions of
Human Hunger") is the new president of
Tufts University. Before taking office in
July he was professor of nutrition at
Harvard University. Born and educated
in Paris, Mayer served with distinction
in both the French Army and the Free
French forces during World War II. Af-
ter the war he resumed his studies at
Yale University, where in 1948 he re-
ceived a Ph.D. in physiological chemis-
try. Two years later he was awarded his
second doctorate (in physiology) by the
Sorbonne. He joined the Harvard facul-
ty soon afterward. An expert on the
problem of human obesity and the
mechanism by which the body regulates
its food intake, he has published some
650 papers and several books (the latest
of which, A Diet for Living, appeared in
1975). Over the years he has served as a
consultant to several United Nations
agencies, including the Food and Agri-
culture Organization and the World
Health Organization; at present he
heads the UN Task Force on Child Nu-
trition. As chairman of the National
Council on Hunger and Malnutrition in
the U.S., he played a major role in call-
ing the nation's attention to the nutri-
tional problems of the poor in America.
In 1969, as a special consultant to the
President, he directed the First White
House Conference on Food, Nutrition
and Health. He has since served as
chairman of the nutrition division of the
White House Conference on the Aging,
and he currently heads the health com-
mittee of the President's Consumer Ad-
visory Council.
W. DAVID HOPPER ("The Devel-
opment of Agriculture in Developing
Countries") is president of the Interna-
tional Development Research Centre in
Ottawa. Before returning to his native
country of Canada to take up his present
job in 1970 he had lived for most of the
previous decade in New Delhi. where he
served first as the director of evaluation
of the Ford Foundation's Intensive Ag-
ricultural Districts Program and later
as associate field director of the Rocke-
feller Foundation's Indian Agricultural
Program and as visiting professor of ag-
ricultural economics at the Indian Agri-
cultural Research Institute. A graduate
of McGill University, he first went to
India for an extended stay in 1953, when
he received a Social Science Research
Council fellowship to study the eco-
nomic organization of a village on the
Gangetic Plain in north-central India.
He left India two years later to continue
his graduate studies at Cornell Universi-
ty, where he obtained a Ph.D. in agricul-
tural economics and cultural anthropol-
ogy in 1957. After teaching for a time in
Canada and the U.S. he went back to
India in 1962 under the auspices of the
Ford Foundation. During the latter half
of the 1960's he was an important figure
in the green revolution in Asian food
production, working with the World
Bank, the Asian Development Bank,
the Food and Agriculture Organization,
the major bilateral donor agencies and
Asian governments to match the needs
of programs to expand food production
with internal and external sources of in-
vestment and assistance. He is currently
chairman of the subcommittee of the
Consultative Group for International
Agricultural Research for the establish-
ment of an International Centre for Ag-
ricultural Research in Dry Areas.
Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
Food and Agriculture
Introducing an issue about the world food problem. The situation is
hopeful, with one proviso: that the development efforts of agrarian
countries be concentrated less on industry and more on agriculture
by Sterling Wortman
CPYRGHT
p1 The world food situation is serious,
even precarious. It is also true that
the world may have, for the first
time in history, the ability to deal effec-
tively with the interacting problems of
food production, rapid population
growth and poverty. What, then, is the
moral of this issue of Scientific American
dealing with food and agriculture?
Certain facts are indisputable. The
world population was two billion in
1930, reached three billion in 1960,
stands today at four billion and is head-
ed for six billion by the end of the centu-
ry. On the other hand, the annual rate of
increase appears now to be reaching a
peak. The worldwide rate of food pro-
duction has recently been increasing
along with population. The "green revo-
lution" of the late 1960's represented a
significant improvement in grain-crop
productivity, primarily in parts of Asia
and Latin America: China now feeds its
vast population: India has just reported
a bumper crop of grain. Yet year in and
year out much of the world cannot feed
itself and has been making ends meet
with food from diminishing surplus
stocks in a ew countries. un re s 01
millions of people in scores of countries
live in abject poverty, suffering from
chronic malnutrition that reinforces
their poverty and subject to calamitous
famines when their precarious food sup-
plies are reduced by drought or floods or
wars [see "The Dimensions of Human
Hunger," by Jean Mayer, page 40].
Faced with these facts, there are seri-
ous scholars who forecast impending
starvation of major international pro-
portions. Some, pointing out that more
than enough food is being produced in
many parts of the world, advocate a rad-
ical redistribution of that food from the
rich countries to the poor ones. Others
propose a different solution: they would
abandon the populations of the coun-
tries whose prospects for survival they
consider virtually nil by withholding
from them food and technical and eco-
nomic aid, sending selective help instead
only to those countries they give a rea-
sonable.chance of survival. On the other
hand, many students of the problem are
optimistic that food supplies will im-
prove gradually as scientific knowledge
an e
improve agricultural productivity, as
population growth rates decline under
the impact of mass education and fami-
ly planning and also as an implicit ac-
companiment of economic advances.
The evidence assembled in this issue,
to my mind, justifies the second of the
two broad attitudes I have described,
but with an important proviso: The im-
provement will come about only if it is
actively engendered. by radically new
public policies both in the rich nations
and in the poor nations themselves. It is
important to realize that the mutual re-
lations among the problems of low agri-
cultural productivity, high population
growth rates and poverty offer opportu-
nity as well as difficulty. An all-out ef-
fort to increase food production in the
poor, food-deficit, countries may be the
best means of raising incomes and ac-
cumulating the capital for economic
development, and thus for moving the
poor countries through the demograph-
ic transition to moderate rates of popu-
lation growth.
Since 1798, when Thomas Malthus
published An Essay on the Principle
of Population, there have been repeated
warnings that man's numbers, which are
subject to exponential increase, could-
or at some time surely would-overtake
food supplies, which Malthus assumed
could only increase arithmetically. Over
the years there have been localized fam-
ines and some food shortages of wider
extent: there were major shortages in the
early 1920's following World War I, in
the late 1940's and early 1950's after
World War II, in the mid-1960's after
two years of drought on the Indian sub-
continent and most recently in 1972,
when world grain roduction fell 35
Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001p 1
 CPYRGHApproved For Release 1
minion tons an ed 0011'
heavily on the international market. Yet
it was not until less than 15 years ago
that people began to appreciate the seri-
ous and chronic nature of the world
food problem.
It was in 1963 that Lester R. Brown,
who was then working in the U.S. De-
partment of Agriculture, published a
paper in which he presented projections
to the year 2000 of changes in grain pro-
duction and net trade. The projections
(not predictions but extrapolations of
the trends then current) suggested that
even though the developing countries
could be tripling their grain output by
2000, exports from developed countries
to less developed ones would need to be
more than quadrupled to meet the ever
rising demand. In a 1965 paper Brown
noted that before 1940 the less devel-
oped areas of Asia, Africa and Latin
America had all been net exporters of
wheat, rice, corn and other grains to the
more industrial nations. By the end of
World War II, however, the less devel-
oped countries had lost their surplus and
the net flow was reversed. The export of
grain from the developed world to the
less developed one rose from an average
of four million tons a year in 1948 to
some 25 million tons in 1964. Brown
concluded: "The less developed world is
losing the capacity to feed itself." Since
then the flow of grain from a few devel-
oped countries to the developing regions
has continued to rise; indeed, in the re-
cently ended crop year it appears that
almost all the interregional grain ex-
ports came from the U.S., Canada and
Australia [see illustration on page 37].
If the grain-production trends of the
past 15 years continue, according to the
International Food Policy Research In-
stitute, the food-grain deficit of develop-
ing countries with market economies
will be about 100 million tons a year by
1985-1986. If the rather lower rate of
increase in production characteristic of
the past seven years prevails instead,
their annual deficit could reach a stag-
gering 200 million tons.
Those projections are specifically for
the poor countries that cannot produce
enough food to feed themselves. There
are developing countries (Thailand and
Argentina) that export food and a few,
such as China, that are virtually self-suf-
ficient in food. And there are many de-
veloped countries that need to import
food and are able to pay for it, there is
nothing about a localized food deficit
that foreign exchange cannot cure. The
problem, then, is centered in the devel-
oping countries with food deficits. The
complexity of the task of improving the
situation of those countries derives from
their particular characteristics.
Whereas in 1974 the per capita gross
national product was $6,720 in Swe-
den, S6,640 in the U.S., $2,770 in Italy
999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
an =. in e . . . ., some
countries had a per capita product be-
low S500: about 40 of these had one
of less than S200. These are statistical
averages: in most market-economy de-
veloping countries there are sharp in-
come disparities, and income levels
among the masses of rural people are
far below any average. As a group these
countries have inadequate foreign-ex-
change reserves: many of them depend
on one raw-material export or at most a
few; their balance of trade is usually
negative and they are heavily in debt.
D eveloping countries are agrarian.
with from 50 to 80 percent of their
people in rural areas, often far from cen-
ters of government. For most of them
the source of livelihood is the produc-
tion of food or fiber crops or the hus-
banding of animals that are adapted to
local soil and climatic conditions. The
productivity of their crops and their ani-
mals is in most cases abysmally low.
FOOD EXPORTERS
FOOD IMPORTERS
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
FOOD-DEFICIT, LOW INCOME
FOOD-DEFICIT, MIDDLE INCOME
FOOD-DEFICIT, HIGH INCOME
FOOD EXPORTERS
e ra too an to popu a ton is win-
dling; in a number of countries the
amount of cultivated land per person is
less than an acre. Even a few decades
ago food production could be increased
in most countries by bringing additional
land under cultivation or extending
grazing areas: now that option is disap-
pearing in many regions. Moreover, as
land has been divided repeatedly among
generations of heirs, most family hold-
ings have become extremely small.
The rural people have little access
to education or health care. Housing
is substandard. Life expectancy is low,
and large families have traditionally
provided a source of labor and of securi-
ty for parents in their later years. Often
out of sight and out of mind of urban-
based governments, these rural popula-
tions are the poorest of the poor.
Another handicap for many of these
countries is their small size: in almost 80
the population is less than five million,
and in more than 30 of these it is less
IMPACT OF FOOD DEFICITS AND POVERTY is concentrated in the broad band of de-
veloping nations, as is shown in this map based on categories established by the International
Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). A few developed countries are major exporters of
Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
 CPYRGH~pproved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
than a million. Such nations cannot ex-
pect to develop for themselves the full
range of scientific and other profession-
al services required in fields that are im-
portant to development; they must rely
on external resources. The develop-
ing countries' lack of institutions and
trained personnel is exacerbated by the
fact that many of them are newly inde-
pendent. Of the countries listed by the
United Nations as being least developed
or as being "most seriously affected"
by recent economic stresses, 36 have
become independent since 1945, 29 of
them only since 1960. The departure of
the colonial powers left many of them
without the skills needed to improve
food-crop production, with weak insti-
tutions and in many cases without the
reliable market outlets or sources of
supply that had existed when they were
part of a colonial system.
Moreover, as colonies their basic
food crops and food animals had been
neglected. Many developing countries
have numerous centers for research on
coffee, cacao,.oil palm, rubber and jute
and other cash export crops, but until a
few years ago there were few such cen-
ters for wheat, rice, corn, food legumes,
root crops, vegetables and other crops
essential for feeding rural and urban
populations. Even since independence
the attention of governments and indus-
try has tended to remain centered on
estate and industrial crops that can gen-
erate foreign exchange. 'There has been
little concern for providing the research
and training and for establishing the
market systems that characterized for-
merly successful efforts in connection
with export crops. In many of these es-
sentially agrarian countries the people
in power are military officers, lawyers,
businessmen, engineers or others who
know little about agriculture or the sci-
ence that underlies it.
Now increasing numbers of people,
most of them in the countryside, are be-
coming restless. With advances in mass
communication and in transportation
these long-neglected people are becom-
ing aware that only a small fraction of
the citizenry are enjoying the comforts
of life. Seeing no hope for themselves or
their children, they are receptive to any
ideology that offers them what they hold
most important: food, clothing, hous-
ing, health care, education, security-
and hope.
Accordingly government leaders are
being made increasingly aware that un-
less they take steps to develop their rural
areas they may well be faced with con-
tinuing unrest and violence and even
revolution. A new political will to deal
with agriculture is emerging. Trends in
world food supplies have contributed to
the new sense of emergency. With the
dwindling of reserves of grain in the
U.S. and some other food-surplus coun-
tries, many leaders of developing coun-
tries can no longer count on continuing
access to the cheap (or even free) sup-
plies that have enabled them to keep
food; the rest have net food deficits but can pay to import food. At- which to buy food without constraint. The United Nations has Iden-
mos all develo i,n untr s have a food deficit and only those in titied 43 "food-priority countries" (black disks) with especially low
the [ i ( j l O r e e0S e1t~S9iGgIOsigG1A-RDPa7,9S041 4AQOA1i@0O4OO 1t 1 cereal-grain deficits.
 CPYRGHT
Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
food costs low in their urban areas while
continuing to neglect their agricultural
areas. With the high cost of food on in-
ternational markets requiring large out-
lays of scarce foreign exchange, some
governments are for the first time being
compelled, for political reasons, to wor-
ry about their farm populations. The re-
X
0 200
duction of the surpluses could. ironically
be one of the more favorable events of
recent times-if it galvanizes govern-
ments into action.
To understand the kind of action that
is required it is helpful to consider
the stages through which agricultural
systems move and the transformations
/
,
Ile
of the current century. For thousands of
years men have practiced traditional
subsistence agriculture. Ever since hunt-
ers and gatherers took up sedentary
farming there has been a long and slow.
evolution of countless systems of crop
and animal production, many of which
persist today [see "The Plants and Ani-
mals That Nourish Man," by Jack R.
Harlan, page 88]. Traditional farming
systems involve only man, his animals,
his seed and his land, with little need for
the involvement of governments or in-
dustry or for cooperation with others.
The productivity of such systems is
largely limited by soil fertility and cli-
mate, and family income in cash or in
kind depends in part on the size of the
farm operation that can be handled with
family labor. The great bulk of the
world's farmers still practice some form
of subsistence farming.
A significantly different kind of agri-
cultural development has been in-
troduced largely within this century.
based on science and technology and
generated mainly by consumer demand..
This agricultural revolution, in which
the Western nations have pioneered and
excelled, has been fostered by research
and educational institutions, industry
and public agencies, and by the efforts
of increasingly sophisticated and inno-
vative farm populations [see "The Agri-
culture of the U.S.," by Earl 0. Heady.
page 106]. The past 75 years have seen
the introduction of more efficient crop
varieties and animal strains; the devel-
opment, improvement and widening ap-
plication of chemical fertilizers and
means for controlling disease and insect
pests; the introduction of ever more
farm machinery and the trend toward
industrialized farming and other "agri-
business," all underlain by more exten-
sive networks of roads, electric power
and communications.
What we begin to see now, and what
needs to be promoted, is not simply the
spread of this scientific-technical way of
life to the developing countries but a
new stage of deliberate, forced-pace ag-
ricultural and rural-development cam-
paigns driven by several new forces
more insistent than rising consumer de-
mand [see "The Development of Agri-
culture in Developing Countries," by
W. David Hopper, page 196]. Literally
scores of countries are looking for
WORLDWIDE FOOD PRODUCTION seems likely to keep up with population in the near
future. Here world population (black) and food production (color) are plotted as index num-
bers, taking the 1961-1965 averages as 100. Actual data are plotted to 1975. Thereafter three
population curves are shown: the UN high, medium (solid black) and low projections. Two
food-production projections are shown. One (solid color) assumes a linear rate of increase (as
Malthus assumed must be the case for food production); it is based on the rate of increase (an
average of three index points per year) between 1961 and 1973. Such an increase in food pro-
duction lies above the medium population projection. The other food-production curve (bro-
ken colored line) illustrates a UN Food and Agriculture Organization projection to 1985 of the
ways to raise tooa production, incomes
and living standards among the rural
masses, not in the 50 or 75 years such
changes required in the Western coun-
tries but in 10 or 15 years. They have no
time to lose.
The first objective must be to increase
food production, but more food is not
enough. After all, people can get food in
1961-1973 rate of increase, assuming an exponential rate of growth. These curves do not im- only three acceptable ways (if one ex-
Ply S )ved tl'@`'& 5eolM t0' ldCfAu P79?-O AOM 4ldoT epee). First, people
 CPYRGAHT
Moved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975
FOOD PRODUCTION has increased in developed (left) and devel-
oping (right) countries at similar rates (black curves). As FAO data
who have land may be able to grow their
own food, or at least some of it for part
of the year; ways must be sought to en-
able them to increase their output. Sec-
ond, people can receive food as a gift,
but that only buys important living time
and is not a continuing solution to their
basic poverty. Third, people can buy
food if they have money, but hungry
people do not have money-in the devel-
oping countries or in the U.S. or wher-
ever else people are hungry.
Thus there are two components to
the solution of the food problem: in-
creased production of food, primarily
in the developing countries, and wide-
spread increases in family incomes, par-
ticularly among the poor. The higher in-
comes will have to come primarily from
the increased productivity and profita-
bility of agriculture, from the develop-
ment of industry (primarily labor-inten-
sive industries and particularly in the ru-
ral areas where most people live), from
employment in construction and public
works and from the generation of the
diverse services that will be in demand
as rural areas become more prosperous.
The bulk of the food supply of most
agrarian countries is produced by indi-
vidual farmers with tiny family-operat-
ed holdings. Improvement of the pro-
ductivity and income of these people
will require the introduction of new
high-yielding, science-based crop and
animal production systems tailored to
the unique combination of soil, climate,
biological and economic conditions of
individual localities in every nation [see
"Agricultural Systems," by Robert S.
Loomis, page 98]. Needed now are
concerteA0 9Wdtfl5?Ri WA5e
,show, however, the rise is largely nullified in developing countries,
where rapid population growth reduces production per capita (color).
countryside not only with knowledge of
new techniques and new varieties of
crops and animals but also with roads
and power systems, with inputs such as
fertilizers, pesticides and vaccines for
animal diseases and with arrangements
for credit and for marketing agricultural
products.
All of this is aimed at generating the
1 A- main ingredient for rural develop-
ment: increased income for large num-
bers of farm families. Until their pur-
chasing power is increased through on-
farm or off-farm employment there can
be no solution to the world food prob-
lem. Extending science-based, market-
oriented production systems to the'rural
masses can enable the developing coun-
tries to substantially, expand their do-
mestic markets for urban industry. As
farm families attain larger disposable
incomes through increased agricultural
profits they can become buyers of goods
and services, providing more jobs and
higher incomes not only on farms but
also in rural trading centers and in the
cities. What I am suggesting, in other
words, is that the improvement of agri-
cultural productivity is the best route to
economic advancement for the agrarian
developing countries.
Let me mention three nonsolutions to
the problems of food and hunger that
are often proposed. Larger harvests in
the few remaining surplus-production
countries, notably the U.S., Canada
and Australia, are not a solution. Those
gency needs for food caused by calami-
ties anywhere in the world. To continue
to allocate free or low-cost food to gov-
ernments that neglect their own rural ar-
eas, however, is counterproductive. It
simply allows governments to put off
the tedious and unglamorous task of
helping their own people to help them-
selves.
The introduction into developing
countries of Western-style, large-scale
mechanized farming is also not a solu-
tion. Such methods may be appropriate
for thinly populated areas in some coun-
tries and may help governments to get
food supplies under national control
quickly, but there remains the problem
of getting food from large farms even to
nearby individual families that have no
money to pay for it. Even if the product
of such farms were destined solely for
urban consumers, it would deprive the
smaller farmers of such markets for
their own produce. Perhaps more im-
portant, most large-scale mechanized
agriculture is less productive per unit
area than small-scale farming can be.
The farmer on a small holding can en-
gage in intensive, high-yield "garden-
ing" systems such as intercropping
(planting more than one crop in the
same field, perhaps in alternate rows),
multiple cropping (planting several
crops in succession, up to four a year in
some places), relay planting (sowing a
second crop between the rows of an ear-
lier, maturing crop) or other techniques
that require attention to individual
countries do need to improve their pro- plants. The point is that mechanized ag-
ductivity to create surpluses for export, riculture is very productive in terms of
to maintain their balance of payments output per man-year, but it is not as pro-
"top/e%'O ' 4ARDR79eG1119 001Q a 4GOO 1as the highly
 CPYRGHT
intensive systems are. And it is arable
land that is scarce for most farmers in
many countries.
Finally, the advent of synthetic foods,
single-cell proteins and so on will not be
a solution. These products may prove to
be valuable additives, but they have to
be bought before they can be eaten. The
hungry have no money, and the mane-
facture of novel foods does not provide
any increase in income for the poor. The
only real solution to the world food
problem is for poor countries to quickly
increase the production of crops and an-
imals-and incomes-on millions of
small farms, thus stimulating economic
activity.
T s there any hope that this can be done?
1 The assertion that this is the right
time for "a bold new program" is not,
after all, new. It was in 1949 that Presi-
dent Truman proposed his Point Four
technical-aid program, arguing that "for
the first time in history, humanity pos-
sesses the knowledge and the skill to re-
lieve the suffering" of the world's poor.
Is it any more reasonable to call for a
new initiative today than it was a quar-
ter of a century ago? The fact is that
since then there have been a number of
significant and hopeful developments.
First of all, the nature of the problem
has become understood only during
the past dozen years or so. I remarked
above that the first projections of food
requirements and deficits to the end of
the century appear to have been made
by Lester Brown in 1963 and 1965. The
first comprehensive appraisal was un-
dertaken in 1966 by some 125 American
scientists and other specialists under the
auspices of the President's Science Ad-
visory Committee; their report titled
"The World Food Problem" appeared
in 1967. There have been many other
reviews since then, the most recent ma-
jor one being that of the World Food
Conference in 1974. In the past 10 years
the world has begun to mobilize to deal
with technical and organizational re-
quirements. The increased production
of basic food crops on all farms every-
where has at last been accepted as the
primary solution to the world food
problem.
The transfer of technology in agricul-
ture is not a simple process, however,
and the second hopeful development is
that its complexity is now reasonably
well understood. Whereas most types of
technology are widely applicable, the
biological components of agricultural
technology are not. They need to be
tailored for each locality and developed
in it. -
For example, when Norman E. Bor-
laug of the Rockefeller Foundation be-
gan to work on wheat production in
Mexico in the 1940's, he first tried to
1960- 1965- 1970-
1961 1966 1971
Approvea or a ease
FUTURE FOOD DEFICIT in the developing countries is foreseen
by IFPRI. Actual data are given, for cereal production and con-
sumption in the market-economy developing nations that have food
deficits, up to 1975-1976 (the crop year just ended). The trend of
production since 1960-1961 was calculated and the trend line pro-
jected to 1985-1986. Future demand was projected from current
human consumption on the basis of population growth and alterna-
tive assumptions about growth of per capita income (modified by
raise the yields of local varieties by
means of good management practices
and the application of chemical fertiliz-
ers. The local plants simply grew very
tall and leafy and were heavily attacked
by rusts. He then brought in from else-
where all the varieties he thought might
possibly work in Mexico, but none of
them performed under the length-of-
day and climatic conditions and in the
face of the locally prevalent disease or-
ganisms. Borlaug had no alternative to
the slow process of breeding new wheat
varieties specifically for conditions in
Mexico. As he undertook the research
he began to train young Mexican techni-
cians and scientists in wheat improve-
ment and management and to establish
reliable sources of quality seed. When
he had developed shorter, stiff-strawed
wheat varieties resistant to disease
strains prevalent in Mexico, it became
possible to apply increasing amounts of
fertilizers and to harvest more grain in-
stead of more straw. The enhanced prof-
itability of wheat production in turn in-
duced the government and farm organi-
zations to improve irrigation systems
and the supply of necessary fertilizers
and to strengthen agricultural institu-
tions [see "The Agriculture of Mexico,"
by Edwin J. Wellhausen, page 128]. The
point is that it was basic biological tech-
nology that was holding back advances
in Mexico with wheat, as it had held
DEF
I I I l 1
1975- 1965-
1976 19c,6
"income elasticity" data reflecting the extent to which incremental in-
come would he committed to cereal consumption); to this human de-
mand, grain consumed as animal feed is added for countries rich
enough to convert much grain into meat. Three demand projections
are shown (color). One assumes no improvement in per capita con-
sumption over the 1969-1971 level (solid line), one assumes low
growth of income (broken line) and one assumes high income growth
(dotted line). The curves measure economic demand, not actual need.
Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
 CPYRGHT
them back in Southeast Asia with rice
and as it still is today in many areas of
the world with many crops and animals. NORTH AMERICA
The great void of food-crop and ani-
mal research in tropical and subtropi- WESTERN EUROPE
cal areas has now been partly filled by
the establishment of 10 agricultural re- U.S.S.R. AND
search and training centers in Asia, Afri- EASTERN EUROPE
ca and Latin America, six of them since CHINA
1970. Their work is now financed by a
consortium of international agencies, JAPAN
national governments and a few founda-
tions, whose support has grown from
$15 million in 1972 to $65 million in OTHER ASIA
1976. Meanwhile several national gov- AUSTRALIA AND
ernments, including those of Brazil, In- NEW ZEALAND
dia, the Philippines and Pakistan, are AFRICA AND
greatly intensifying their own research MIDDLE EAST
efforts. For the first time in history the
generation of the needed biological LATIN AMERICA
components of highly productive tropi-
cal agricultural systems is underway.
A third hopeful factor is that the po-
NORTH AMERICA
tential for raising yields is great. As
of 1971-1973 there were 135 nations in
which corn was produced in significant WESTERN EUROPE
amounts. The highest national average U.S.S.R. AND
yield in the world was 7.2 metric tons EASTERN EUROPE
per hectare in New Zealand; in the U.S.
it was about 5.8 tons. Yet there were 112 CHINA
countries with national-average yields
of less than three tons, 81 of them with JAPAN .`~
less than 1.5 tons! Yields of other basic
food crops and animals are similarly OTHER ASIA
low, reflecting the impoverishment of
soils from decades if not centuries of AUSTRALIA AND
continuous use, the failure to control NEWZEALAND
diseases and pests, the low production AFRICA AND
t,?
potentials of native crop varieties and MIDDLE EAST
animal strains, the lack of needed nutri-
ents in fertilizers or feed supplements LATIN AMERICA
and other factors.
In many of the poorer countries the 1975-1976
application of chemical fertilizers (a
e .,r
good indicator of the degree of intensifi- NORTH AMERICA Z "
cation of agriculture) is only beginning
to spread to the basic food crops. When WESTERN EUROPE
fertilization is combined with high-
fielding varieties and improved crop- U.S.S.R. AND
3y EASTERN EUROPE
ping practices, yields can climb quickly
and substantially, as was demonstrated CHINA
beginning in the mid-1960's with wheat
in India [see "The Agriculture of India," JAPAN
by John W. Mellor, page 154]. Of par-
ticular importance has been the creation
of short, stiff-straw varieties of wheat OTHER ASIA ?R?
and rice, called semidwarfs. Such Va- AUSTRALIA AND
rieties can utilize higher applications of NEWZEALAND
nitrogen and other nutrients for the AFRICA AND
production of grain more efficiently MIDDLE EASTs
than typical native varieties, which tend
to grow excessively tall when they are LATIN AMERICA
heavily fertilized and to "lodge," or fall
over, well before harvesting, reducing -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 +50 -i 60 +70
yields. For similar reasons plant height NET GRAIN TRADE (MILLIONS OF METRIC TONS)
has been shortened and stalks stiffened WORLD'S INCREASING DEPENDENCE on grain exports of a few countries is shown by
in other grains, including corn, sorghum this comparison of the trade pattern before World War II with the situation more recently
and barley. When high-yielding varie- and estimated figures for the past year. Data are from Lester R. Brown, the Department of
ties are grown as dense populations, Agriculture and~.I(FPfRI~Before ~the war most regions exported pgrain g(gray bars); Western Eu-
t'IthtobVu `e rurl'rtelease `194~/V?/Vr a i\,r~(/'~rl'[UI"/ ? 1 j ~VVV~~VVV Vo I n o make up deficits.
 CPYR'Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
nd moisture, expenditures to control puts. Once limited to the production of ed to their particular needs. Such efforts
liseases and insect pests often pay off luxury, high-value cash crops, the appli- did not begin on a substantial scale until
landsomely, whereas at the lower-yield cation of fertilizers was extended first to the late 1960's.
evels of traditional agriculture they grain crops in the U.S. and Europe. We Sixth, there is now in operation a
ould not. These new varieties have now understand that the green revolu- functioning network of financial institu-
een the catalysts of the agricultural tion was simply a significant extension Lions, including the World Bank, the In-
evolution [see "The Amplification of of the agricultural revolution that had ter-American Development Bank. the
Agricultural Production," by Peter R. begun in the industrialized countries. Asian Development Bank, the African
Jennings, page 180]. Higher yields re- Fifth, it has been demonstrated that Development Bank and a number of
sult, however, when such varieties are governments can take effective action if Common Market banks, as well as na-
grown in combination with fertilization, the will exists, and that many farmers tional agricultural banks in many of the
disease and pest control, higher-density will adopt new technology given reason- poorer countries. During the past three
planting and other measures. able opportunities to do so. When India or four years most major financial in-
A fourth new element is the availabili- in the 1960's successfully introduced stitutions have substantially increased
ty for the first time of chemical fertiliz- high-yielding crop varieties, fertilizers their emphasis on agricultural and rural
ers in sufficient quantity for widespread and management practices on some 13 development. The world now has in op-
basic food-crop production in the devel- million hectares in five years, it demon- eration most of the institutions needed
oping countries. At the turn of the cen- strated that given the availability of to finance major agricultural efforts.
tury the total world output of chemical technology a government can increase Most of these institutions did not exist in
nutrients was only about two million agricultural productivity rapidly if it President Truman's time; the few that
tons per year. It crept up to about 7.5 wants to, and that farmers will accept were established then had limited funds
million tons by the end of World War II. more productive and profitable systems and their early emphasis generally was
Then, from 1945 to 1955, production if they can. There have been subsequent, on industrial development rather than
tripled to 22 million tons. In the next less dramatic successes in Pakistan. agricultural.
decade it doubled again, and now it is Algeria, the Philippines, Malaysia and
appoaching 80 million tons per year. elsewhere. It is only in recent years that Seventh, an impressive (but still in-
Chemical fertilizers generally can be there has been evidence that small farm- J adequate) array of institutions has
utilized only in market-oriented systems ers as well as those with larger landhold- emerged to assist developing countries
in which a portion of the harvest is sold ings can be benefited if scientific and or- with the technical and managerial devel-
to cover the cost of the purchased in- ganizational efforts are genuinely direct- opment of national programs, in some
cases also offering financial aid for
worthy projects and programs. Among
3.0 them, in addition to the UN Food and
are agencies
ization
O
,
rgan
Agriculture
INDONESIA for bilateral aid in 16 or more industrial-
ized nations and the staffs of the World
Bank and regional banks. The Ford.
Kellogg and Rockefeller foundations
2.5--~ have active programs. Canada's Inter-
national Development Research Centre
has become a leading force. A new, pri-
PAKISTAN vate professional-assistance organiza-
the International Agricultural De-
tion
,
,,; velopment Service, began operations in
cc 2-0 1975 Additional sources of assistance
. PHILIPPINES are su
orted by industry.
pp
0
Of particular importance is the free-
~~_ J.~ INDIA dom, only recently gained, of some na-
a tional agencies to support work aimed
- -1 - directly at increasing the production of
0 1.5
INDIA basic food crops. The U.S. Agency for
a --PAKISTAN International Development, for exam-
0: was constrained politically until
1969 (as was Canada's comparable
r r--' agency) by reluctance to become in-
crops, particularly the cereal grains.
There was a general belief both in and
out of government that other nations
_ should not be encouraged to increase
0.5 -- - production of those crops for fear of
competition with U.S. efforts to sell its
surplus stocks or even give them away!
For example, it was not until the last
week of President Johnson's administra-
0 1 1 tion that the AID undertook to provide
1960 1965 1970 1975 financial support for the International
UPWARD TREND of yields of rice (black) and wheat (color) in several Asian "green revolu- Rice Research Institute in the Philip-
j1y o introduction of hi h-yielding varieties, more fertiliza- pines and the International Maize and
#'son" is du imaxLLY
P,a.e98di1~F?fFe:~k/4~Rf"3~9i9`94A~~1~'~Inter in Mexico.
tion a
 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
CPYRGHT
By that time it had become apparent
that mounting deficits in the developing
countries would soon exceed the pro-
duction capacity of the U.S. and the few
remaining surplus producers, and it was
becoming clear that much of the hope
for expanding international markets of
all types rested on improving the eco-
nomic position of many agrarian coun-
tries. That the U.S. and Canadian agen-
cies were not able directly and openly to
help other nations increase their basic
food-crop production gave them a late
start on the problem-a mere seven
years ago. The handicap has since been
overcome, and the agencies have re-
sponded with improved effectiveness.
Another important handicap remains.
Most European and North American
institutions and individuals have had lit-
tle opportunity to gain experience in or-
ganizing deliberate campaigns for agri-
cultural development. That is under-
standable. For many of the past 20 or 30
years the U.S. and Canada have had
problems of surplus production; there
has been no need for public agencies or
universities to become involved in cam-
paigns at home to raise agricultural pro-
duction. Moreover, these countries have
an abundance of farm entrepreneurs
who are researchers and innovators in
their own right. who seek out the prod-
ucts of research laboratories and experi-
ment stations and put them together into
highly productive systems at the indi-
vidual farm level. Such well-educated
and exceptionally skilled farm entrepre-
neurs are scarce in most of the develop-
ing countries. Those who provide tech-
nical assistance will need to devise agri-
cultural and rural-development systems
for large numbers of people who are in-
telligent but uneducated, and who are
therefore unable to undertake on their
own the innovation required at the farm
level.
Eighth, some governments of low-in-
come countries are showing a new deter-
mination to develop their rural areas,
with emphasis on the increased produc-
tion of basic food commodities, the pro-
motion of labor-intensive industry in ru-
ral areas and the extension of input sup-
plies and marketing channels into areas
where none have existed before.
Finally, there still remain considera-
ble amounts of arable but currently un-
cultivated land that can be brought into
production. except perhaps in Europe
and parts of Asia [see "The Resources
Available for Agriculture," by Roger
Revelle, page 164].
Well-organized campaigns are need-
ed now to force the pace of agri-
cultural development at a rate with
which few nations anywhere have had
any experience. The key elements in
such campaigns are inputs of biological
technology and of capital for building
the infrastructure to support rural de-
velopment. I have emphasized that the
poor countries must do much for them-
selves, but they need massive help from
the affluent world. For us in the U.S.
that calls for a much more serious effort
to direct scientific knowledge and tech-
nical skills, as well as money, specifical-
ly toward foreign rural-assistance pro-
grams.
Clearly more is at stake than the al-
leviation of world hunger, crucial as
that is. Improving productivity in devel-
oping countries can provide millions of
people not only with food but also with
housing, clothing, health care, educa-
tion-and hope. Enhanced agricultural
productivity is the best lever for eco-
nomic development and social progress
in the developing world, and it is clear
enough that without such development
and progress there can be no long-term
assurance of increased well-being or of
peace anywhere in the world. The exis-
tence of new technological, financial
and organizational capabilities offers a
magnificent opportunity, although per-
haps a fleeting one, to take effective ac-
tion. The crucial question is whether or
not governments will have the wisdom
to act.
Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
The Dimensions of Human Hunger
The number of people who are poorly nourished or undernourished
can only be roughly estimated, but they probably represent an eighth
of the human population. Most of them are found in Asia and Africa
by Jean Mayer
CPYRGHT
F amine, fearsome and devastating
though it is, can at least be at-
tacked straightforwardly. A fam-
ine occurs in a definable area and has a
finite duration: as long as food is avail-
able somewhere, relief agencies can un-
dertake to deal with the crisis. Malnutri-
tion, on the other hand, afflicts a far
larger proportion of mankind than any
famine but is harder to define and at-
tack. Only someone professionally fa-
miliar with nutritional disease can accu-
rately diagnose malnutrition and assess
its severity. Malnutrition is a chronic
condition that seems to many observers
to be getting worse in certain areas. In
one form or another it affects human
populations all over the world, and its
treatment involves not mobilization to
combat a crisis but long-term actions
taken to prevent a crisis-actions that
affect economic and social policies as
well as nutritional and agricultural ones.
In the background always is the concern
that too rapid an increase in population,
combined with failure to keep pace in
food production, will give rise to massive
famines that cannot be combated.
The statistics with which the public is
bombarded are of little help. What is the
layman to make of statements that a bil-
lion people suffered from hunger and
malnutrition last year, that 10 million
children the world over are so seriously
malnourished that their lives are at risk,
that 400 million people live on the edge
of starvation, that 12,000 people die of
hunger each day and that in India alone
one million children die each year from
malnutrition? If the world's food prob-
lem is to be brought under control, and I
believe it can be, we must first draw con-
ceptual boundaries around it and place
it in a time frame as we would a famine.
Malnutrition may come about in one
of four ways. A person may simply not
get enough food, which is undernutri-
tion. His diet may lack one essential nu-
trient or more, which gives rise to defi-
ciency diseases such as pellagra, scurvy,
rickets and the anemia of pregnancy due
to a deficiency of folic acid. He may
have a condition or an illness, either ge-
netic or environmental in origin, that
prevents him from digesting his food
properly or from absorbing some of its
constituents, which is secondary malnu-
trition. Finally, he may be taking in too
many calories or consuming an excess
of one component or more of a reason-
able diet; this condition is overnutrition.
Malnutrition in this sense is a disease of
affluent people in both the rich and the
poor nations. In countries such as the
U.S. diets high in calories, saturated
fats, salt and sugar, low in fruits and
vegetables and distorted toward heavily
processed foods contribute to the~high
incidence of obesity, diabetes, hyperten-
sion and atherosclerotic disease and'to
marginal deficiencies of certain miner-
als and B vitamins. Bizarre reducing
diets, which exclude entire categories of
useful foods, are self-inflicted examples
of the first two causes of malnutrition.
The nutritional diseases of the affluent
are not, however, the subject of this arti-
cle. In areas where the food supply is
limited the first three causes of malnutri-
tion are often found in some combi-
nation.
In children a chronic deficiency of cal-
ories causes listlessness, muscle wastage
and failure to grow. In adults it leads to
a loss of weight and a reduced inclina-
tion toward and capacity for activity.
Undernourished people of all ages are
more vulnerable to infection and other
illness and recover more slowly and
with much greater difficulty. Children
with a chronic protein deficiency grow
more slowly and are small for their age;
in severe deficiency growth stops alto-
gether and the child shows characteris-
tic symptoms: a skin rash and discolora-
tion, edema and a change in hair color to
an orange-reddish tinge that is particu-
larly striking in children whose hair
would normally be dark. The spectrum
of protein-calorie malnutrition (PCM,
as it is known to workers in the field)
varies from a diet that is relatively
high in calories and deficient in protein
(manifested in the syndrome known
as kwashiorkor) to one that is low in
both calories and protein (manifested in
marasmus):
Although protein-calorie malnutri-
tion is the most prevalent form of under-
nourishment, diseases caused by defi-
ciencies of specific vitamins or minerals
are also widespread. It is true that the
prevalence of certain classic deficiency
diseases has decreased drastically since
World War II. Beriberi is now rare and
pellagra has been essentially eradicated,
at least in its acute form; rickets is seen
mostly in its adult form (osteomalacia)
in Moslem women whose secluded way
of life keeps them out of the sun, and
scurvy is unlikely to be seen except in
prisoners who are not provided with
enough vitamin C. In contrast, blindness
caused by the lack of vitamin A occurs
with particular frequency in India, Indo-
nesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, the Philip-
pines, Central America, the northeast of
Brazil and parts of Africa. In remote
inland areas (central Africa, the moun-
tainous regions of South America and
First, then, just what is the chronic
hunger of malnutrition and how
widespread is it? The first part of the
question can be answered with assur-
ance: the second, in spite of the statistics
cited in the preceding paragraph, is real-
ly a matter of informed guesswork.
Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
 CPYRGHT
Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
ARGENTINA
LEVEL OF ENERGY obtained from food is portrayed on a map ulation, whereas Japan has a large population in a relatively small
where the area of each nation is proportional to its population. Can- area. The level of energy intake is indicated by the presence or ab-
ada, for example, occupies a large area but has a relatively small pop- sence of color. In the countries shown in dark color the average calo-
Approved For RPIPagp 1999/09/02 - CIA-RDP79-011 g4A0001 QQQ4QQ01-1
 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
CPYRGHT
iNDONESI
He intake is less than adequate. (An adequate intake is defined by color the average calorie intake is adequate or as much as 10 percent
United Nations agencies as being about 3,000 calories per day for a above adequate, and in the countries represented in white the av-
man and 2,200 for a woman.) In the countries indicated by the light erage calorie level is higher than adequate by at least 10 percent.
Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
 CPYRGHT
Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194AO00100040001-1
the Himalayas) goiter, the enlargement
of the thyroid resulting from a deficien-
cy of iodine, is common. The World
Health Organization estimates that up
to 5 percent of such populations are af-
flicted with cretinism, the irreversible
condition caused by iodine deficiency in
the mother before or during pregnancy.
From 5 to 17 percent of the men and
from 10 to 50 percent of the women in
countries of South America, Africa and
Asia have been estimated to have iron-
deficiency anemia.
The human beings most vulnerable to
the ravages of malnutrition are infants,
children up to the age of five or six and
pregnant and lactating women. For the
infant protein in particular is necessary
during fetal development for the gener-
ation and growth of bones, muscles and
organs. The child of a malnourished
mother is more likely to be born prema-
turely or small and is at greater risk of
death or of permanent neurological and
mental dysfunction. Brain development
begins in utero and is complete at an
early age (under two).. Malnutrition dur-
ing this period when neurons and neu-
ronal connections are being formed may
be the cause of mental retardation that
cannot be remedied by later corrective
measures. The long-term consequences,
not only for the individual but also for
the society and the economy, need no
elaboration.
Growing children, pound for pound,
require more nutrients than adults do. A
malnourished child is more susceptible
to the common childhood diseases, and
illness in turn makes extra demands on
nutritional reserves. In addition many
societies, still believing the old adage
about starving a fever, withdraw nour-
ishing foods from the child just when he
needs them most, thus often pushing
him over the borderline into severe mal-
nutrition. So common is the cycle of
malnutrition, infection, severe malnu-
trition, recurrent infection and eventual
death at an early age that the death rate
for children up to four, years old in gen-
eral, and the infant mortality rate in par-
ticular, serve as one index of the nutri-
tional status of a population as a whole.
For infants less than a year old the death
rate is about 250 per 1,000 births in
Zambia and Bolivia, 140 in India and
Pakistan and 95 in Brazil (for all its
soaring gross national product). The
rate in Sweden is 12 per 1,000 births; in
the U.S. the average is 19, but in the
country's affluent suburbs the rate
equals Sweden's, whereas it rises to
about 25 in the poor areas of the inner
cities and as high as 60 for the most
poverty-stricken and neglected mem-
bers of the society: the migrant farm
H ow reliable the figures for the devel-
oping nations are, however, is an-
other matter. In most instances statis-
tical reporting is as underdeveloped as
the rest of the economy. Deaths, partic-
ularly of one-day-old infants, often go
unreported. In all probability the rates
are higher than the ones I have cited.
More precise nutritional assessments
are attempted in two ways. One is
to construct a "food balance sheet,"
which puts agricultural output, stocks
and purchases on the supply side and
balances them against the food used for
seed for the next year's crop, animal
feed and wastage and hence derives an
estimate of the food that is left for hu-
man consumption. That amount can
then be matched against the United Na-
tions Food and Agriculture Organiza-
tion's tables of nutritional requirements
to obtain an estimate of the adequacy of
the national diet.
This method has a number of draw-
backs. For several reasons it tends to
result in underestimates. One is that it is
difficult to estimate the agricultural pro-
duction in developing countries with
any degree of accuracy. Farmers have
every incentive to underestimate their
crop: they may be able to reduce taxes
and the obligatory payment of crops (of-
ten as much as 60 percent of the harvest)
in rent to the landlord. Second, the foods
included in the balance sheet tend to be
the items that figure prominently in
channels of trade: grain, soybeans and
large livestock. Other farm products-
eggs, small animttls, fruits and vegeta-
bles-vital to a good diet but grown for
family consumption or sold locally are
almost impossible to count and so are
ignored.
On the other hand, the balance-sheet
method has certain tendencies toward
overestimates. For example, it is ex-
tremely difficult to estimate the posthar-
vest loss of crops to insects, rodents and
microorganisms. The loss is known to be
close to 10 percent for the U.S. wheat
crop and is probably higher for other
crops, even with the advanced technolo-
gy available. In some tropical countries
the loss can run as high as 40 percent.
For all these reasons figures on food
production do not provide a particularly
accurate index of the amount of food
actually available for consumption or
the types of food actually consumed,
and they make no attempt to differenti-
ate patterns of consumption within a
population. They do, however, provide
rough estimates of the state of nutrition
by regions [see illustration on preceding
two pages].
The second way of estimating the de-
gree of malnutrition within an area is to
extrapolate from data compiled from
hospital records and cross-sectional sur-
veys. Statistics on illness, however, tend
to be as unreliable as mortality statistics.
The criteria for admission to a hospital
on the basis of malnutrition vary from
country to country; the records from
rural areas may be sparse; the poor,
among whom malnutrition and its relat-
ed conditions are most likely to be
found, are the least likely segment of the
population to seek medical help, and if
they do seek such help, the condition
may then be so far advanced that the
diseases associated with malnutrition,
such as infantile diarrhea and pneumo-
nia, may claim all the physician's atten-
tion, so that he misses or ignores the
underlying cause.
Projections based-on the results of
77 studies of nutritional status made
among more than 200,000 preschool
children in 45 countries of Asia, Africa
and Latin America place the total num-
ber of children suffering from some de-
gree of protein-calorie malnutrition at
98.4 million. Percentages ranged from 5
to 37 in Latin America, from 7 to 73 in
Africa and from 15 to 80 in Asia (ex-
chiding China). These surveys, howev-
er, did not employ standardized proce-
dures. In some of them clinical as-
sessments were made and in others the
children were measured against inter-
national weight tables. Thus, although
the general indications of such studies
are useful, figures derived from them
are rough at best. In order to assign
reliable figures to the degree of hunger
and malnutrition in the world today we
would need large-scale surveys that in-
cluded both clinical examinations based
on an established definition of malnutri-
tion and individual consumption sur-
veys that determine the amount and
types of food eaten and the distribution
of food within each family unit.
E ven if the figures derived by these
methods are doubtful, the situation
they reflect is clear. In my judgment it
would seem reasonable to set the num-
ber of people suffering from malnutri-
tion at 500 million and to add to that
another billion who would benefit from
a more varied diet. The largest concen-
tration of such people is in Asia, South-
east Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Clini-
cal surveys and hospital records indicate
that malnutrition wherever it exists is
severest among infants, preschool chil-
dren and pregnant and lactating women;
that it is most prevalent in depressed ru-
ral areas and the slums of great cities;
workers. Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194AO00100040001-1
 CPYRGXX proved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
DEVELOPING
REGIONS
DEVELOPED
REGIONS
ASIA
LATIN
AMERICA
AFRICA
I
0 .8 1.6 2.4 3.2 0
DAILY CALORIE INTAKE (THOUSANDS)
25 50 75
DAILY INTAKE (GRAMS)
J I I I I I I
100 0 25 50 75 100 125
PERCENT
AVAILABILITY OF CALORIES AND PROTEIN is portrayed son in the various regions and are based on data assembled by the In-
for the developed and developing regions and for several specific de- ternational Task Force on Child Nutrition for the UN Children's
veloping regions. The figures reflect the average daily diet per per- Fund. The figures for Asia refer to the centrally planned economies.
that the problem is lack of calories as
much as lack of protein; that (except in
areas where the people subsist largely
on manioc or bananas) where calories
are adequate protein tends to be ade-
quate too, and that although a lack of
food is the ultimate factor in malnutri-
tion, that lack results from a number of
causes, operating alone or in combina-
tion. A nation may lack both self-suffi-
ciency in food production and the mon-
ey to buy food or to provide the farm
inputs necessary to increase production;
the poorer members of the population
m y lack income to buy the food that is
available, and regional factors, such as
customs in child-feeding and restric-
tions on the movement of supplies, may
prevent the food from getting to the peo-
ple who need it most.
On the basis of these findings one can
divide the nations of the world into five
groups. The first group consists of the
industrialized nations, where food is
plentiful but pockets of poverty persist.
Here governments are able to deal with
problems of malnutrition through food
assistance to the poor, nutrition and
health programs and nutrition-educa-
tion programs. The chief members of
the group are the U.S., Canada, the
nations of Western Europe, Japan, Aus-
tralia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and
Singapore.
The second group consists of the na-
tions with centrally planned economies,
where whatever the economic philoso-
phy the egalitarian pattern of income
distribution together with government
control of food supplies and distribution
have seemed in the past few years to
insure the populations against malnutri-
tion due to hunger. In this category are
mainland China, Taiwan, North Korea,
South Korea, North Vietnam and South
Vietnam. In the third group are the na-
tions of the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC), whose
overall wealth is undeniable but whose
pattern of income distribution does not
ensure that this wealth will benefit the
poor. Fourth is a group of countries.in
Asia, the Near East, Central America
and South America that are already self -
suficient or almost self-sufficient in
food production at their present level of
demand. The demand, however, is im-
peded by an uneven distribution of in-
come that is reflected in malnutrition in
large segments of the population. Brazil,
for example, has the highest economic
growth rate in the world, but malnutri-
tion is rampant in the northeast and
widespread in the shantytowns sur-
rounding the large cities.
The fifth group includes the nations
the UN designates as "least developed."
They have too few economic resources
to provide for the people in the lowest
income groups. Many of the countries
are exposed to recurring droughts,
floods or cyclones; some are ravaged by
war. All 25 of the least developed na-
tions are poor in natural resources and
investment capital.
Loking back today, it seems incredible
that in 1972 it appeared the world
might soon, for the first time. be assured
of an abundant food supply. The new
wheat varieties of the "green revolu-
tion" had taken hold in Mexico and
northwestern India, and the new varie-
ties of rice developed in the Philippines
promised a high-yield staple crop for the
peoples of Southeast Asia. The harvest
from the seas was still rising spectacu-
larly (from 21 million metric tons in
1950 to 70 million in 1970-a steady in-
ENERGY AS PERCENT
OF REQUIREMENT
crease of about 5 percent per year, out-
stripping the world's annual population
increase of 2 percent). The worldwide
production of grain was rising by an av-
erage of 2.8 percent per year, and there
were substantial reserves in the form of
carry-over stocks held by the principal
exporting countries and of cropland
held idle in the U.S. under the soil-batik
program. The prospect was so rosy that
the FAO suggested in 1969 that the food
problems of the future might he those of
surplus rather than shortage.
Although two sudden and short-term
simultaneous crop failures in a number
of areas and the sharp rise in oil prices
were the immediate cause of the food
crisis of 1972-1974, it has since become
clear that four long-term factors that
had been building up quietly for a long
time were in any case about to alter
the hopeful situation permanently. (The
first short-term reversal, a reduction of
crops in several parts of the world be-
cause of unfavorable weather in 1972,
gave rise to a second: the massive
purchases of grain by the U.S.S.R.
that eliminated American reserves and
caused the international prices of wheat,
corn and rice to rise sharply. Moreover,
the increase in oil prices effectively put
the green revolution out of the reach of
such countries as India, Pakistan and
Bangladesh, which are poor in petro-
leum and other resources and have gone
about as far as they can in increasing
yields with traditional methods of farm-
ing. The increase in oil prices also dis-
located the economies of the wealthy
nations, reducing their contributions to
international aid.)
Even though the situation is less seri-
ous now than it was in 1974, it is more
Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01194A000100040001-1
 CPYRGHT
Approvea or a ease
PRODUCTION FAILED TO EQUAL
POPULATION GROWTH
r9Xy C, s
1, AS/
y~ G,9~ ~GqG q y O qq_ 6O 9Fo t''G ii g9q ~g9l~AA
~' 9i9 q~ cc 7~ G YqQ~~,~?ii5'~~T~GS,y~c~y C'~q.~'I09 0 0'~cp~q~Q~gyi