THE NIS STUDY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79B01737A000100050012-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 47
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 29, 1999
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: September 30, 1966
• Content Type: SUMMARY

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"THE NIS STUDY"
30 September 1966
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SEVKff
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CGS (CHAIRMAN)
I , ORR
OBI
OCI
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CONTENTS
I. PROBLEM
II. ASSUMPTIONS
III. CONCLUSIONS
IV. RECOMMENDATIONS
V. DISCUSSION:
Basic Directive
Supplemental Directive
Agency Fulfillment of Responsibilities
Program Concept
USIB Guidelines
Tailoring of Program to the Concept
User Application of NIS Materials
Purposes of Other Basic Intelligence
Adherence to the Program Concept
The DIA Production Sector
The CIA Production Sector:
OBI Production
OCI Production
ORR Production
DD/S&T and DD/P Production
The CIA. Services of Common Concern
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I. THE PROBLEM
To analyze all factors bearing on the balance between
production of NIS General Surveys and in-depth sections with
view to recommending a balance which will meet the priority
needs of the community and which will be consistent with the
most efficient allocation of manpower and funds within the
Intelligence Directorate as a whole.
For the purposes of this study it is assumed that the
Agency:
1. Endorses continuation of the overall NIS
Program as an interagency structure for production
of coordinated basic intelligence.
2. Intends to continue participation in the
production of contributions consistent with the Agency`s
mission, capabilities and primary interests.
3. Intends to continue to provide the community
with Program services of common concern.
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LII. CONCLUSIONS
1. The existing directives on the responsibilities of the Agency
in the NIS Program provides a logical and flexible charter under which
the Agency administers the Program and produces directly or through
contract more than half of the NIS sections.
2. The 1963 USIB concept of the NIS Program emphasizes the
production of General Surveys and carefully selected in-depth sections
in contrast to the previous encyclopedic nature of NIS coverage.
3. This concept is valid, and the Program has been and continues
to be tailored to the concept through more selective production of
in-depth sections in favor of increased production of General Surveys.
4. The present rate of production of General Surveys appears to
be the best that can be achieved with present DD/I resources but will
not accomplish the goal of USIB's NIS Committee of producing General
Surveys on every country on a 2- to 4-year cycle.
5. A further reduction or consolidation of certain non-military
topics now covered in in-depth sections and an even greater selectivity
in scheduling some countries for in-depth coverage can be accomplished
without appreciable :Loss in the value of the NIS Program.
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6. Any savings to the DD/I from reduction of effort on in-
depth sections would be wholly or partially offset if the present
rate of production of General Surveys is increased.
7. As regards OCI, the contracting out of certain technical
"subsections of General Survey Section 4 (Sociological) could be
arranged without damage to OCI's internal capabilities but would
save only an estimated 2 man-years annually, whereas the contracting
out of the entire Section 4 might release an estimated 10 to 12
man-years but would probably weaken OCI analyst capabilities to
deal with other intelligence problems--for example, those involving
tribal animosities.
8. As regards ORR, the continuation of the reduction in the
number of in-depth sections produced could result in the release of
manpower estimated at 1 to 2 years in FY 68 and would not result
in an appreciable loss of analytical capability, provided that the
sections omitted were on relatively less important topics in less
important countries, e.g., manpower in Hungary.
9. As regards OBI contracts with non-USIB agencies, the
reduction (or consolidation) of certain non-military topics covered
in in-depth sections and even greater selectivity in scheduling
in-depth sections could lead to absorption of at least part of
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General Survey Section 4--from OCI--in addition to dollar savings
10. As regards NIS activities within OBI, further adjustments
in the ratio of General Surveys and in-depth sections will not greatly
affect the workload, but the rearrangement of people and functions--
now under study by the Director of OBI--might result in a freeing of
up to 5 slots for other uses during FY 68.
11. On first impression there appears to be extensive duplication
of the NIS product in other basic intelligence publications, but a
large number of these, though incorporating NIS material, are
"problem-oriented" or otherwise aimed at purposes of their own.
12. Nonetheless, the relationship between the NIS and over-
lapping publications produced in the Agency seems to warrant further
investigation.
13. The acceptance and use of the NIS under the new USIB concept
is rising but there seem to be large possibilities for wider distri-
bution and use of the NIS product within the U.S. Government.
Ill. RECOMMENDATIONS
1. That no changes be proposed at this time in the NSC and USIB
directives on the NIS Program, in the interagency organization of the
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2. That, with the approval of the NIS Committee, the following
steps be taken under the general guidance of OBI to reduce the Intelli-
gence Directorate's commitment of manpower and funds to NIS production:
a. In OCI, a contracting out starting in late FY 67 of
certain technical subsections of General Survey Section 4
(Sociological) with the objective of freeing 2 man-years annually,
together with the experimental contracting out in early FY 68
of the whole of Section 4 on two countries to assess the feasi-
bilities of even further release of manpower.
b. In ORR, a continuation of the trend toward production
of fewer in-depth sections with the objective of freeing 1 to 2
man-years annually during FY 68, omitting coverage of relatively
less important topics, e.g., manpower in Hungary.
c. In OBI contractual arrangements, selected reduction
of in-depth sociological production to permit absorption of
those parts of Section 4 of the General Survey transferred
out of OCI, together with additional reduction on economic
in-depth sections with the objective of achieving net dollar
savings of $30,000 to $40,000 in FY 68.
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3. That the Intelligence Directorate's resources applied to the
production of General Surveys not be significantly increased.
4. That the examination of the organization of NIS activities
in OBI be continued with a view to releasing up to 5 slots for other
work in FY 65:.
5. That the NIS Committee examine methods to publicize the
NIS Program within the U.S. Government, to widen the distribution
of copies, and thus to greatly improve the cost effectiveness of
the Program.
1. Basic Directive. NSCID-3 makes the Director of Central
Intelligence responsible for coordinating production and maintenance,
and for accomplishing the review, publication and dissemination of
National Intelligence Surveys which are defined as the basic intelli-
gence required in the interest of national security. The Director
of Central Intelligence also is responsible for making such requests
of departments and agencies as are necessary for development and
maintenance of the surveys and for effecting changes in the allocation
of production and maintenance responsibilities by means of agreements
between the Director of Central Intelligence and other departments
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or agencies. This directive also makes provision for non-USIB
departments and agencies to be called upon for contributions to
the surveys. NSCID-3 also provides that the Central Intelligence
Agency is responsible for maintaining an outline of all basic
intelligence required by the Government and that the Central
Intelligence Agency and/or other departments or agencies of the
Government which are best qualified by reason of mission, production
capability, and primary interest shall be allocated
production and
maintenance responsibilities* in accordance with the outline.
2. Supplemental Directive. As a result of a comprehensive
survey of the NIS Program by 25X1A
Coordination Staff,
the USIB approved a revised guideline for the Program in August 1963.
This document amplifies the means for implementing the DCI's respon-
sibilities for overall coordination of the NIS Program as well as
of interdepartmental and other departmental basic intelligence.
The amplification spells out certain specific responsibilities of
the United States Intelligence Board, the reconstituted NIS Committee
of the USIB, the Central Intelligence Agency, and the other USIB
agencies. The document also reaffirms the Central Intelligence Agency
All underlining by writer for emphasis.
7
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responsibilities for providing the Chairman of the NIS Committee and
a. general administration of the NIS Program (under
guidelines approved by the NIS Committee);
b. administrative support and secretariat to the
NIS Committee and its Chairman;
c. final editorial review of NIS contributions to
ensure consistency and compliance with procedures and
guidance promulgated by the NIS Committee;
d. final processing and reproduction of NIS units;
f. issuance of NIS Committee-approved guidance and
provision of such administrative and other common services
as the NIS Committee determines can best be done centrally.
3. Agency Fulfillment of Responsibilities. A review of the
organization and operation of the NIS Program within the Agency
against a background of the enabling directives cited in the fore-
going paragraphs leads to the following findings and conclusions:
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a. The Office of Basic Intelligence provides the services
of common concern charged to the Central Intelligence Agency by
NSCID-3 and the 1963 USIB-approved document on the concept,
direction and management of the Program.
b, The Office of Basic Intelligence functions as a production
component of the Central Intelligence Agency by discharging the
production and maintenance responsibilities (via external research
contracts with non-USIB agencies) for topical in-depth sections
(totaling 69 in FY 67) which are outside the competence or manpower
resources of USIB member producers.
co The Office of Research and Reports, Office of Current
Intelligence, Office of Scientific Intelligence and elements of
the Clandestine Services function as production components of
the Central Intelligence Agency by discharging production and
maintenance responsibilities (via in-house talents for the most
part) for 134 General Survey sections and 38 topical in-depth
sections or a total of 172 sections (FY 67),
d. The USIB, supported by the NIS Committee, is responsible
for establishing the priorities for NIS production based upon
the anticipated needs of high-level planners and policy makers,
and the NIS Committee is responsible for determining the scope
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and treatment to be given each NIS area. Therefore, any
recommendations or proposals affecting the existing overall
balance, scope or extent of area treatment of the NIS Program
cannot be implemented without approval of the USIB and/or the
NIS Committee. However, unilateral implementation within
the Intelligence Directorate can be made of such recommendations
or parts thereof solely concerning internal adjustments of
means for CIA production of its NIS contributions as well as
of such recommendations concerning streamlining of the service
of common concern performed by OBI, provided that the quality
of the NIS product or the NIS service for which the Agency is
responsible is not attenuated.
4. Program Concept. To help judge the extent of treatment required
of the NIS product (i.e., how much detail is needed) we examined existing
concepts of intended use of the NIS product. NSCID-3 contains very
broad definitions of both basic intelligence and of the scope and depth
of treatment to be given each NIS area. Basic intelligence is defined
as "factual intelligence" resulting from collation of fundamental
encyclopedic information. The scope of such factual intelligence to
be included within the framework of the Program is not limited except
to that which is "required by the Government". However, one can interpret
NSCID-3 as saying further that the NIS Program is limited to that basic
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intelligence "required in the interest of national security". NSCID-3
does not supply guidance on the coordination of production of national
basic intelligence with production of departmental basic intelligence.
5. USIB Guidelines. The 1963 USIB-approved document refines the
guidelines concerning the purposes and content of the National Intelli-
gence Surveys. USIB envisions the NIS as a digest of basic intelligence
(which is defined as that intelligence concerned with the relatively
unchanging natural features, fundamental characteristics and basic
resources) required as "'a foundation for strategic planning, for high
level operational planning and for the development of foreigh policy".
In keeping with this concept, USIB states further that uniformly
comprehensive coverage of all countries is not required and that
the extent of treatment of any topic over and above that prescribed
for the General Survey shall be based on explicit determination
of the significance with which that topic applies to the particular
country or area. The USIB guidelines also provide that in addition
to the NIS, such specialized, detailed basic intelligence required
by "lower level planning and operational elements" in the Government
will be produced on a departmental or interdepartmental basis.
However, USIB recognizes that although the NIS is not designed to
meet these specialized needs, it "should prove generally useful to
Lower level planners and operational elements
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6. The 1963 USIB guidance also provides means for some degree
of coordination and central monitoring of the basic intelligence
production arena of the community by charging each USIB agency with
responsibility for ensuring coordination of its departmental program
with the NIS Program. Each agency is directed to advise the NIS
Committee of departmental basic intelligence produced, in progress,
or planned which relates to scheduled NIS treatment of the area.
No provision is made, however, for coordination of country studies
or other intelligence-like surveys produced by non-USIB agencies
who may not view such studies as an intelligence product but rather
as unclassified background data shaped to support policies, plans
and activities of those non-USIB agencies.
7. Tailoring of the Program to the Concept. The 1963 USIB
definition of the concept of the NIS Program gave greater emphasis
to production of a revitalized General Survey (formerly Chapter I
Brief) at the expense of production of in-depth sections. Attachment I
displays the degree to which the Program has shifted emphasis in
this respect by showing those in-depth sections eliminated from its
outline and the production process. For FY 64 and subsequent years
the production ratio or program balance between General Surveys and
in-depth sections was:
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Fiscal Year
Total Units*
General Surveys
In-Depth
1964
405
40%
(162
units)
60%
(243 units)
1965
411
54%
(222
units)
46%
(189 units)
1966
403
57%
(229
units)
43%
(174 units)
In March 1966, the Chairman of the NIS Committee reported to USIB
that production of General Surveys consumed nearly 60% of the total
coverage forecast for the next two years (FY 67 and FY 68), "reflecting
the emphasis on this volume as the primary unit of NIS coverage".
Thus the NIS Committee, with USIB approval, continues its general
policy of gradual reduction of in-depth sections in favor of increased
attention to the production and maintenance of General Surveys. In
this connection, a major problem in the General Survey cycle is the
frequency of revision and updating, with most consumers expressing
a desire for more frequent updating. The NIS Committee has estab-
lished an objective of a 2- to 4-year updating cycle for each
General Survey (depending on the importance of the specific area).
By the end of FY 66, 98 NIS geographic areas had been covered by
General Surveys (or Chapter I Briefs). Therefore, this objective plus
continued expansion of area coverage would require production of about
40 revised or new General Surveys per year as compared to the current
rate of about 30 per year. The problem of General Survey updating is
* Each section of a General Survey (such as Section 5, Political) and
each in-depth section (such as Section 57, Subversion and Insurgency)
is counted as one unit.
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relevant to our study objective in that reallocation of any resources
made available by further deemphasis of in-depth sections will have
to be judged against the manpower needs created by a faster General
Survey cycle in addition to all the other intelligence production
needs.
8. User Applications of NIS Materials. Further pursuit of the
question of the required extent of treatment of any topic over and
above that of the General Survey led the study group to examine
the actual use to which the NIS materials are applied as compared
to the intended purposes of the product. In light of our study
objective, we did not attempt judgment of the cost effectiveness
of the NIS Program as a whole but tried to determine the relative
usefulness of in-depth sections as compared to General Surveys in
terms of the USIB concept of purpose and user level of the product.
A number of detailed NIS user surveys and evaluations had been
conducted in past years and the group studied the results of each.
Although these gave us some feeling for community sentiment on
the general value of the Program, none of the surveys clearly
delineated relative values of General Surveys (and former Chapter
I Briefs) as compared to the in-depth sections. Rather than launch
another formal questionnaire-type user evaluation, members of the
study group each made informal inquiry of senior and middle echelon
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officials in Government to develop some feel for who uses what NIS
materials for what purposes. The results of our "poor boy's"
survey are:
a. The NIS General Survey enjoys use within almost
all levels of Government. Although we came across no examples
of direct application by cabinet officials to strategic planning
or foreign policy development, we found that intermediate level
policy people (e.g., JCS, Force Commanders, State policy desks,
Ambassadors, White House Staff) and their supporting staffs use
the General Surveys for "reading in" to an area and as foundation
pieces for production of a variety of problem-oriented studies,
plans, briefings, and answers to spot questions on current
international problems and policy issues. In most instances
the General Survey is not the sole or even the primary supporting
intelligence piece for "high-level operational planning or
development of foreign policy," but the foundation it provides
is complemented by current and estimative intelligence. A
factor frequently expressed in favor of the NIS General Survey
is that it represents a coordinated "community" view and thereby
provides the perspective and objectivity necessary to assessment
and consideration of the basic facts of greatest significance
to the area.
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b. In suddenly emerging crises situations, especially
where U.S. forces are involved or likely to be (e.g., Lebanon,
Cuba, Dominican Republic), and where "crash" operational or
contingency planning is required, planners turn to immediately
available on-shelf reference materials the first of which
usually is a complete set of NIS materials--General Surveys
plus all available in-depth sections. Here again, the NIS
materials serve as foundation pieces to preparation of
operational and contingency plans with the value of the NIS
materials being rated in direct proportion to immediate
availability, currency of the content (i.e., how long it has
been since updating) and the extent of detail on basic facts
relevant to the problem at hand. Of 61 identified "Collections
of Finished Intelligence" in the U.S. but outside of the
Washington area, 56 centers list NIS sets as their primary
specific holdings and of these, all but 8 contain complete
sets of the NIS series (General Surveys plus all in-depth
sections).
c. Of the presently produced in-depth sections, Section
57 (Subversion and Insurgency) has received high-level endorse-
ment. General Maxwell Taylor's Committee on Counterinsurgency
found the sharpened focus and additional specifics on insurgency
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to be "correct" in meeting the need for basic intelligence
with regard to counterinsurgency plans and programs. Although
specific evidence of "high-level" need for or use of the entire
series of in-depth sections on a continuing basis is difficult
to demonstrate, we have accumulated dozens of examples of uses
of many of the in-depth sections at various levels of Government
for a variety of purposes. These examples include use by
intelligence analysts as background to current and estimative
intelligence pieces; by intelligence collectors in planning
and support of operations; by numerous military, Foreign
Service, AID and other Government officers stationed in
both Washington and overseas for planning and support of
many of their programs; and by a broad segment of the non-
USIB sector of Government for many purposes including, for
example, preparation for the President of a Bureau of Mines
brief on the worldwide mineral situation relative to a stock-
piling issue. The NIS in-depth sections thus have an important
if indirect effect on high-level decisions in two ways: (1)
they are used extensively in the preparation of problem-
oriented papers that go up to the highest levels, and (2) they
are used in the formation of policy at middle levels where the
role of the high-level officials is simply approval or disapproval
of the policy itself.
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9. With regard to user application, the study group believes
that full dollar value from the NIS Program can be increased by
improving the supply and distribution practices. For example, the
total initial dissemination of the average General Survey is less
than 500 copies. This appears to be surprisingly small in view of
its potential value to a large sector of the U.S. Government concerned
with foreign affairs. The group's informal user survey showed numerous
individual cases where fuller use of the NIS would have been profitable.
We recognize that dissemination patterns are established by user
agencies and are therefore beyond the control of the administrators
of the Program.
10. Purposes of Other Basic Intelligence. To judge further the
extent to which the NIS Program should treat topics over and above
that prescribed for the General Survey, as well as to judge the Program's
relationship with departmental basic intelligence, the study group
scanned the large and amorphous Government effort outside of the NIS
Program. This effort is devoted to production of studies, handbooks,
reports, manuals, etc., each of which fits the definition of basic
intelligence. As an aside, it is worthy of note that we could find
no complete catalogue or registry of the many publications of a basic
intelligence nature prepared by the various Government agencies or
their contractors; the Agency should recommend to the NIS Committee
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that it examine the feasibility of a central registry of all available
basic intelligence publications on each NIS area. However, we did
review various bibliographies, intelligence production programs, and
hard copy holdings of the CIA Library. At first, one is overwhelmed
by a vast array of publications, many of which seem to be duplicative
of both the NIS General Survey and related in-depth sections. Some
duplication of the NIS research and publication effort undoubtedly
exists but it is not nearly so great as the first bewildering exposure
to the mass of basic intelligence would lead one to believe. Several
factors important in judging the relationship of these publications
to the NIS are described in the next paragraphs.
11. First, the NIS is neither intended nor designed to be a
specialized or problem-oriented product. Therefore, it cannot carry
the entire weight in the majority of intelligence support situations
which normally are tailored to a specialized problem. In many instances,
the basic intelligence content of -the NIS sections relevant to a
specialized problem is lifted out, supplemented with current and other
intelligence, and is published in a different form more applicable
to the problem at hand. For example, the Agency produces Special
Operations Handbooks which contain much of the same kind of information
to be found in the in-depth sections in the military geography, trans-
portation and telecommunications, sociological and political sections
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of the NIS. However, presentation of the basic intelligence in the
form of practical suggestions and information a stranger would need
in making his way through a country on his own requires high-lighting
and recasting of selected basic intelligence in a specialized problem-
oriented product. This same recasting factor applies to many of the
intelligence annexes to policy and planning papers, such as the basic
facts annex to the National Policy Papers produced by State. The
Arab-Israeli Handbook, prepared by CIA in cooperation with INR and
DIA, pulls together some basic intelligence information also found
in several NIS's, supplements this with current intelligence and
further analyses, and emerges with a degree of specialization not
intended to be built; into the appropriate area General Surveys and
related in-depth sections. This sort of reworking of basic intelligence
information is almost inevitable when a problem--such as the Arab-
Israeli confrontation--involves more than one country. In many
instances producers admitted a high degree of reliance on the accurate
and readily available NIS materials without which each would have had
to do his own research and compilation work. It is somewhat the
same as the purpose of a standard reference encyclopedia--an authoritative
research and compilation effort which supplies many users with facts
relevant to a specific problem.
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12. Secondly, some basic intelligence is produced on a departmental
basis in keeping with the USIB concept of need for a degree of detail
beyond that supplied by NIS materials. For example, the ORR Economic
Intelligence Statistical Handbook goes far beyond any NIS section in
detail and also formats the data for specialized use in comparative
economic studies. The degree to which the compiled data of relevant
NIS in-depth sections contribute to these detailed reports is question-
able; however the ORR report is indicative of community need for basic
economic intelligence in detail over and above that provided by even
the in-depth economic sections of the NIS.
13. A third group of non-NIS basic intelligence documents may be
categorized as supplemental to,rather than duplicative of, both the
General Surveys and some in-depth sections. The first supplemental
category is the publication designed to update key points in the NIS
publications which have changed since the last NIS revision. For
example, the OCI Current Intelligence Country Handbook seeks to serve
this purpose as does the NIS Basic Intelligence Factbook within the
Program. The other supplemental category is the study produced on a
particular area or country in a format closely resembling the NIS
in-depth section, because the departmental need for area coverage is
greater than will be met by the annual production schedule of the
NIS Program. In the DIA production program, for example, Port Studies,
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Urban Area Studies and other like reports are published on a departmental
basis on areas not scheduled for near-future NIS in-depth coverage. These
last examples indicate that the NIS Committee selection process is adhering
to the USIB guideline of in-depth coverage of those topics of greatest
significance to a specific area and is avoiding uniform coverage of all
countries.
14. Adherence to the Program Concept. Judgment of the degree of
adherence of the NIS Program to the defined concept will vary with an
individual?s interpretation of the wording of the USIB guidelines and
will result in differing views on who produces national versus who
produces departmental intelligence and under what conditions. Based
on our limited survey of the uses of NIS materials and of the purposes
of other basic intelligence products, the study group concludes that
with a few possible exceptions, community practices in the basic
intelligence area adhere remarkably well to the defined concept. The
possible exceptions concern in-depth sections of the NIS Program and
center on two questions:
a. Which topics for in-depth coverage (e.g., Welfare,
Public Order and Safety) continue to be essential under the
1963 USIB concept?
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b. How does one determine whether a topic required fuller
treatment than that provided in the General Survey on that country?
On the first question, the borderline between high-level strategic or
operational planning and "lower-level" planning and operations (pre-
sumably tactical) is a constantly shifting line. In a crisis situation
the level of interest and concern of the "high-level" policy official
moves rapidly downward and at times will descend to and enter the area
of tactical operations. In these instances "high-level" officials
will call for detailed materials, and it is difficult to anticipate
the nature of daily demands by the policy official on the intelligence
official in light of the dynamics of today's world. However, it
appears that these high-level demands for detail concern mainly those
in-depth sections such as Coasts and Landing Beaches, Topography, and
Ports and Naval Facilities because of their direct relevance to
involvement of U.S. forces in crisis situations.
15. On the second question there is no firm rule that can be
applied. The wording of the USIB guideline is sufficiently general
to permit in-depth coverage of topics of significance to the area
without regard to the intelligence significance of the area. For
example, agriculture certainly is of great significance to Denmark.
But, do we foresee Denmark and its agriculture as being of significance
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to U.S. national security, to U.S. international relations, or to
the world power balance and therefore of sufficient concern to U.S.
intelligence to warrant coverage beyond the General Survey? On the
other hand the agriculture in areas such as Communist China and India
is of sufficient concern to intelligence to warrant production of
in-depth sections on these areas. Therefore, there may be room for
further improvement of the in-depth selection process by:
the number of topics now considered for in-depth treatment;
16. The DIA Production Sector. Pursuant to the above assessment,
the study group met informally with NIS officials of DIA to explore
possibilities of reducing "hard copy" production of certain in-depth
sections within DIA's area of responsibility which could be produced
"on demand" as a tailored readout from on-shelf data stored in the DIA
automated intelligence file (AIF). We found the AIF system to be in
the early prototype stages (despite its listing in the DIA FY 67
Production Program as operational on Coasts and Landing Beaches) with
little hope of producing even a marginal product within the next two
to three years. We also learned that DIA favors publication of its
own basic intelligence product under the auspices of the NIS Program
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wherever possible as opposed to the DIA departmental "green cover"
route. Evidence of DIA favor of the NIS product over its own is
contained in Attachment II, a notice which cancels further production
of the DIA Cold War Analysis series in favor of the revamped NIS
Section 57 (Subversion and Insurgency).
17. In examination of the 87 NIS in-depth sections (by topics
and country) scheduled for production by DIA in FY 67 we noted no
flagrant violations of the USIB guidelines regarding the topical
significance of the in-depth section to the selected areas. One might
suggest that topics such as coasts and landing beaches or urban areas
are of questionable importantance to strategic planning or to the
development of foreign policy. However, this position becomes
highly debatable when situations such as the Lebanon or Dominican
Republic crises arise and, as previously discussed, policy officials
of Government lower their plane of concern to the tactical operational
planning level and raise questioning eyes to senior intelligence
officials as they ask for detailed information. On the other hand,
many of the DIA production topics now treated within the framework
of the NIS Program may be viewed as being only of military significance
and interest and therefore departmental in nature. However, we noted
many topical sections, seemingly of sole or primary interest to the
military, which are also important to and used by departments and
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and agencies other than the military. NASA, for example, is a user
of the NIS in-depth section on Weather and Climate, a topic listed
under Military Geography in the NIS Outline and produced by DIA.
Relative to this factor, we found in many users strong opinions
concerning the greater degree of "acceptability" of NIS basic intelli-
gence, as opposed to a similar departmental product, because of the
higher standards of accuracy and relevance imposed on producers and
because of the degree of community review and coordination which much
of it receives. Because of the Agency's responsibilities for providing
a service of common concern and because of the probable impact on CIA/
DIA relations of any proposal for reduced NIS in-depth production
by DIA, we recommend against such a move at the present time or in
the immediate future, We feel, however, that the NIS Committee should
keep informed of DIA development of its AIF capabilities, especially
the possibilities for eventually providing consumers with selected
in-depth topical intelligence readouts on an "on-call" basis rather
than via the present NIS hard copy on-shelf system.
18. The CIA Production Sector, For FY 67 the Agency was assigned
responsibility for production of a total of 241 NIS units. The produc-
tion allocation by Agency components breaks down as follows:
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Office
General Survey Units
In-Depth Units
OBI
-
69
(via external
OCI
93
13
contract)
ORR
31
8
DD/S&T/OSI
10
8
DD/P
-
9
TOTAL:
134
107
These statistics reflect little room in the Intelligence Directorate
for resource savings through further curtailment of in-depth section
production in either ORR or OCI. However, the OBI production program
offers some possibilities for in-depth adjustments which should result
in some savings.
19. OBI Production. The Office of Basic Intelligence, in its
role of an Agency producer of contributions to the NIS Program, is
responsible for production of the following in-depth sections:
Population
(Section 41)
Worldwide
Characteristics of the People
(Section 42)
Worldwide
Religion, Education, and Public Info
(Section 43)
Worldwide
Manpower
(Section 44)
Non-bloc
Welfare
(Section 46)
Non-bloc
Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry
(Section 61)
Non-bloc
Fuels and Power
(Section 62)
Non-bloc
Minerals and Metals
(Section 63)
Non-bloc
Manufacturing and Construction
(Section 64)
Non-bloc
Trade and Finance
(Section 65)
Non-bloc
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Production of scheduled sections on these topics is accomplished by
means of OBI-administered contracts with non-USIB departments and agencies.
The FY 67 dollar cost of the contracts for production of the 69 scheduled
in-depth sections on these topics is about Attachment III
is a breakdown by contractor of the scheduled FY 67 unit production and
production costs.
20. The study group examined possibilities for some additional
reduction or consolidation of those sections for which OBI has in-depth
production responsibility with the USIB concept in mind and against
a background of:a. user interests and needs, b. the extent of coverage
provided by General Surveys and, c. the impact of changes on contractor
manpower resources and capabilities. The precise nature and timing of
adjustments in each of the in-depth sections depend on a multiplicity
of factors. Some of these would require extending the survey to con-
tractors and other elements of the intelligence community and others
would require examination beyond that which we have been able to accom-
plish in the limited period of our survey. After review and considera-
tion of the many factors bearing on the problem the group concludes
that some adjustments to the following sections are possible:
Population
(Section 41)
Characteristics of the People (Section 42)
Religion, Education, and Public Information (Section 43)
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Manpower (Section 44)
Welfare (Section 46)
Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry (Section 61)
Trade and Finance (Section 65)
2].. Of the sociological sections, Section 46 (Welfare) seems to
have insufficient intelligence significance to warrant treatment over
and above that prescribed for the General Survey and should be eliminated.
The four remaining sociological in-depth sections cited above (Sections
41, 42, 43 and 44) include too much essential detail or statistical data
and analysis to be condensed and included in the General Survey Section 4.
However, combined in-depth treatment of these topics would be appropriate
in the light of their subject matter, and the result would be possible
additional savings in management or production costs. Section 41
(Population) and Section 44 (Manpower) are definitely related and could
logically be combined into a Population and Manpower in-depth section with
inputs from the Bureau of Census and Department of Labor contractors.
The combined section would retain the essential statistical analyses
that are inappropriate and, in fact, too unwieldy, for inclusion in the
General Survey. Similarly, Section 42 (Characteristics of the People)
and Section 43 (Religion, Education, and Public Information) might be
combined into a single in-depth section under for former's title, since
religion and education are integral to an analysis of the social
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system, while public information media discussions could be treated
to an appropriate degree in the General Survey Sections 3 and 4 without
losing vital depth of information.
22. Of the economic sections, the non-bloc Section 61 (Agriculture,
Fisheries, and Forestry) might be reduced with appreciable dollar savings by:
a. revision of the outline so as to deemphasize the
Fisheries and Forestry elements of the Section 61, except
for those countries where these are of special significance
or unusual potential;
b. reduction in the maintenance of Section 61 for free
world countries (relying for updating developments on the
General Survey);
c. reduction in the rate of new Section 61 coverage for
free world countries of the least intelligence interest.
In addition, some saving in the non-bloc Section 65 ('.Grade and Finance)
might be realized by eliminating lengthy listings and reducing the amount
of detail now included--for example, the subsection on insurance and some
of the tabular presentations.
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23. Therefore, we recommend elimination of Section 46 on all areas,
possible combination of Sections 41 and 44 on all areas into a single in-
depth section, possible combination of Sections 42 and 43 on all areas
into a single in-depth section, and a reduction of the amount of detail
now included in Sections 61 and 65 on non-bloc areas. Of the above,
Sections 42, 43 and 46 are produced by a 20-man component in the Bureau
of the Census (formerly in HEW); for FY 67 this component is scheduled 25X1A
to produce a total of 20 in-depth units at a cost of
per unit). The eight Section 41's scheduled for FY 67 are to be produced
by another Census component at a cost of
25X1A and the eight FY 67 Section 44's are to be produced by the Department 25X1A
of Labor at a cost of
Because each unit
of Section 61 requires inputs by two different Department of Agriculture
components plus the Fish and Wildlife Service of the Department of Interior,
the total contract cost for the seven FY 67 units is relatively high,
i.e., The five Section 65's are to be
produced furing FY 67 by the Department of Commerce, Bureau of Inter-
national Commerce at a cost of
24. In estimating possible savings resulting from the above
elimination, combinations and reduction of detail, consideration must
be given to the minimum, size to which a contract can be reduced and
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still retain the competences and services of the contractor--factors to
be determined only after detailed consultation with each contractor.
However, the total savings in OBI production contracts that may result
from the recommended adjustments are:
25X1A
a. between for FY 68 or FY 69
through phased implementation of the proposed adjustments
to contracts with the Census components and the Department
of Labor for production of the sociological sections;
b. a possible 10%a to 15% reduction in the dollar amount
(e.g., saving) of the current Agriculture
and Interior contracts by FY 68 or FY 69 for production of
Section 61; and
c. an undetermined amount of saving in the Bureau of
International Commerce contract for production of Section 65.
Of these estimated amounts, all or part of the above
saving would have to be applied to production of General Survey Section 4,
the exact amounts required to depend on the degree to which OCI is relieved
of production responsibilities, as will be discussed later. It should
be noted that implementation of these proposals concerning adjustments
in the OBI contracts will require NIS Committee and/or USIB approval
as they affect the overall Program.
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25. OCI Production. In OCI, of the 13 in-depth sections scheduled
for production in FY 67, 12 are on Section 57 (Subversion and Insurgency)
in existing or potential ''hot spots' of Latin America, Africa, Southeast
Asia and the Middle East. The remaining is Section 54 (Public Order)
on Czechoslovakia. We have already noted in our user survey paragraph
that the Section 57's have been cited by General Maxwell Taylor's
Committee as important to the national counterinsurgency effort.
Further, the military establishment has already cancelled its duplicative
departmental product and recognizes the new Section 57 as meeting its
needs. The"joint-product" factor also adds weight to the argument for
continuing production of this series in OCI--subversion and insurgency
in these areas is a constant thread in the current intelligence political
fabric and therefore requires maintenance of a comprehensive baseline
of knowledge by OCI analysts. Based on the FY 66 production output,
the OCI member of the study group estimates a manpower cost of 5 man-
months plus 20% for supervision, review and clerical services for each
of the Subversion and Insurgency sections to be produced in FY 67 or
a total of about 6 man-years. In view of the above factors, elimination
or transfer of the Section 57 production effort from OCI is not recommended.
However, the study group does recommend the elimination of production
of Section 54 (Public Order and Safety) on the basis that for the
preponderance of countries, the topic is of insufficient intelligence
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significance to warrant treatment over and above that provided in the
General Survey. It is noted that the expanded Section 57 provides
means for covering certain elements of the material now covered in
Section 54. The estimated net annual manpower saving to OCI through
elimination of Section 54 is only about 1/3 man-year beginning in FY 67.
26. OCI's General Survey production for FY 67 consists of 93
sections: 31 Section 4's (Sociological), 31 Section 5's (Political)
and 31 introductory sections and chronologies. There are production
problems in each of these (e.g., overlap between Public Information
in Section 4 and Propaganda in Section 5, and the need to discuss
labor unions in both Section 4 and Section 5) but the most difficult
of these problems for OCI arises in Section 4, which is heterogeneous
in content. As the introductory note to the Section 4 outline indicates,
this part of the General Survey has two purposes: a. to give the
reader a coherent impression of the general nature of the society, and
how it may affect political behavior; and b. to supply certain
specified data for certain consumers. Material particularly useful
for the first purpose is found in subsections such as Structure and
Characteristics of the Society, Religion, Education, and most of
Manpower and Labor. On the other hand, the subsections on Population,
Health and Sanitation and the labor force part of Manpower include data
on matters such as rates of population growth, the occupational
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composition of the labor force, hospital beds and animal diseases,
which are both technical in nature and much less closely related to
political behavior. Moreover, specialists on these technical matters
are available through OBI's contractual arrangements with the Bureau
of the Census for production of in-depth sections on Section 41
(Population) and with the Department of Labor for Section 44 (Manpower),
while DIA has been steadily increasing its capability on health
and sanitation as evidenced by its recent proposal to assume production
responsibility for the in-depth Section 45 (Health and Sanitation).
Contractual arrangements also exist with another component of the Bureau
of the Census for the production of in-depth sections on Section 42
(Characteristics of the People), Section 43 (Religion, Education and
Public Information) and Section 46 (Welfare).
27. The group considered means of reallocating production of all
or parts of General Survey Section 4 to components "best qualified
by reason of mission, production capability and primary interest" and
the possibilities of freeing some or all of the OCI manpower now
devoted to it. The OCI effort is estimated at 10 analyst man-years,
plus 2 man-years for supervision, review and clerical, services. Two
different options for reallocating production of Section 4 were
considered by the study group.
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a. Option #1 would provide OCI with "inputs" on three
relatively technical subsections of the Section 4: Population,
Health and Sanitation, and the labor force part of Manpower.
The potential for obtaining two of these "inputs" at little
or no additional cost exists in the OBI contracts with the
Bureau of Census and Department of Labor which might absorb
the workload of the Section 4 "inputs" through the adjustments
in production of in-depth sections as previously discussed;
those on Health and Sanitation could presumably be obtained
from DIA on some basis analogous to DIA's present "input"
to OCI's NIS Section 57. On this basis, it is estimated
that the net manpower saving would be about 2 man-years.
By this means OCI would be relieved of responsibilities in
three technical fields where its mission does not require
these special competences. OCI, however, sees other topics
treated in Section 4--particularly such topics as ethnic groups,
religion and organized labor--as having an integral connection
with a country's political behavior and accordingly considers
it important to retain its analytical capability on these
matters in light of its current intelligence and other NIS
responsibilities. The principal disadvantage to OCI of Option #1
would be the problem of integrating "inputs" from three separate
contributors into a coherent Section 4.
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b. Option #2 would transfer the entire responsibility
for General Survey Section 4 to the OBI contractor in the Bureau
of Census (formerly in HEW) which now produces three of the
sociological in-depth sections. This contractor would produce
those elements of Section 4 topically aligned to his current
in-depth responsibilities and integrate "inputs" on the rela-
tively technical subsections from other components under
arrangements discussed in the previous option. The Section 4
production responsibilities thus removed from OCI would free
an estimated 10 analyst man-years plus 2 man-years for super-
vision, review and clerical services. This would be the
principal advantage derived from the successful implementation
of this option. However, the net manpower saving to OCI would
be less than the estimates of freed manpower resources because
of the "joint product" factor, i.e., the necessity to maintain
OCI analyst skills and baseline knowledge on many of these
topics for use in meeting its other responsibilities. The
Census contractor capability to implement this option has
not been examined in detail and there is serious question as
to whether sufficient adjustment to production of in-depth
sections could be made to permit the contractor to absorb
the entire General Survey Section 4 without increasing the
total contract budget.
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28. After weighing the considerations set forth above regarding
Options #1 and #2, the study group was of divided opinion. There was
general agreement that the changes outlined in Option #1 could probably
be made with an improvement in NIS quality, a small net saving in OCI
manpower and no significant attenuation of OCI analytical capabilities.
It also appeared possible to start implementation of Option #1 during
the latter part of FY 67. The Chairman favored Option #2 because it
offers greater savings of OCI manpower and the possibilities of greater
centralization of NIS sociological production; the OCI and ORR members,
on the other hand, considered the impairment of OCI analytical capa-
bilities to be a major objection. Taking into consideration the
uncertainties concerning successful implementation of Option #2 by
the Census contractor, the study group concluded that the option
should be tested and examined further. The study group, therefore,
recommends: a. that Option #1 be started in FY 67; b. that OBI,
in cooperation with OCI, arrange for trial production by the Census
contractor of General Survey Section 4 on two of the countries
scheduled for the first part of FY 68; and c. that the results of
this trial production be used for joint OBI/OCI reassessment and
recommendation of a further course of action. Since the transfer
of part or all of General Survey Section 4 from OCI to an OBI
contractor is an element of the overall proposal affecting the
composition of the Program, it should be submitted to the NIS Committee
as part of the Agency's recommendation.
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SECRET
29. ORR Production. ORR's General Survey production for FY 67
consists of 31 Sections 6's (Economic).
of in-depth sections is:
The FY 67 scheduled production
Manpower
(Section 44)
East Germany
Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry
(Section 61)
Communist China
Fuels and Power
(Section 62)
North Vietnam
Fuels and Power
(Section 62)
Czechoslovakia
Minerals and Metals
(Section 63)
Bulgaria
Minerals and Metals
(Section 63)
Czechoslovakia
Manufacturing and Construction
(Section 64)
Poland
Manufacturing and Construction
(Section 64)
USSR
Based on the FY 66 NIS production output, the ORR member of the study
Troup estimates an average of 600 research hours plus 20% supervisory
and review surcharge as the manpower cost for production of each of
the above in-depth sections. This then totals for the FY 67 in-depth
sections a projected manpower cost of 5,760 research hours or about
5.7 man-years (1000 research. hours = 1 man-year).
30. The ORR production of in-depth sections is confined to
Communist countries. Therefore, a large part of the basic intelligence
work in ORR is a "joint product" because the degree of normal ORR
attention given these areas and their industries is sufficiently great
SECRET
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to require establishment by the analyst of a comprehensive baseline
of knowledge on which to base production of non-NIS reports, i.e.,
current support articles, economic intelligence reports, NIE contri-
butions, problem-oriented intelligence memoranda, and papers on answers
to spot requests. If all NIS in-depth work in ORR were to be cancelled,
its analysts would still have to cover much of the same research
terrain and would still have to marshall their materials and thinking
essentially along NIS lines; this point would apply strongly to the
Soviet Section 64 (Manufacturing and Construction), for example, but
much less strongly to in-depth sections on Eastern Europe. Alternately,
if the in-depth economic production assignment on these areas were
allocated elsewhere in the Government, the office so assigned would
have to duplicate those intelligence intakes, files and groups of
analysts necessary to the ORR operational structure. As to the
previous recommendation for elimination of Section 46 (Welfare), ORR
would be relieved of responsibility for production of this coverage
on Communist countries. However, the fact that no Communist country
has been scheduled since FY 64 makes the question of manpower savings
on Section 46 academic. In conclusion, the study group endorses
continuation of the trend in ORR of producing fewer in-depth sections,
particularly on Eastern Europe, with view to providing potential
release of 1 to 2 man-years in FY 68.
F&Lq
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31. DD/S&T and DD/P Production. NIS production in DD/S&T is
confined to OSI which in FY 67 is scheduled to produce 10 General
Survey Section 7's (Scientific) and 8 in-depth Section 45's (Health
and Sanitation) via contract with a local university. No change
is proposed in the General Survey Section 7's. With regard to
Section 45, DIA has proposed taking over production responsibility
from OSI with the intention of providing broader usefulness among
Defense users. DD/P's NIS production is confined to the in-depth
Section 56 (Intelligence and Security), with 9 units scheduled for
FY 67. The group considers continuation of this production desirable.
The current edition on the USSR, for example, was disseminated in some
1,900 copies and received the personal attention of senior intelligence
officials.
32. CIA Services of Common Concern. The impact of in-depth section
adjustments proposed in proceeding paragraphs on the review, reproduction
and dissemination workload of OBI would be insufficient in itself to
permit significant manpower savings in the services of common concern.
We recognize that the matter of the operational efficiency of the Office
of Basic Intelligence with respect to the NIS Program is somewhat
outside the scope of the study objective which centers principally on
the Program ratio between General Surveys and in-depth sections. However,
in the course of examining the life history of a typical NIS section,
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certain aspects of the processing of NIS materials were noted which
bear on the Intelligence Directorate's manpower and money resources
applied to the Program. OBI management is aware of those sectors
where organizational adjustments are possible and is currently studying
the functional relationships of the three divisions involved in the NIS
Program with a view to achieving economies. Nevertheless, the study
group is of the opinion that our observations bear sufficiently on
the purposes of the study to deserve comment.
33. From a superficial review of the functions and organization
of the three divisions against a background of the historical evolution
of the NIS Program in OBI, it appears that some of the steps currently
applied to the NIS process were more necessary in the old NIS production
structure. For example, there once existed a need for greater liaison
in the processing of NIS sections (particularly with respect to maps
and graphics) through a more diversified Defense production structure;
in addition, the Cartography Division was not then a part of OBI.
This need appears to have been somewhat lessened by the consolidation
resulting from the establishment of DIA and the incorporation of the
Cartography Division in OBI. Further, in the interests of optimum
centralization and integration of like functions in OBI some adjustment
might be made in the Publications Division Graphics Support Branch--
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essentially a graphics production unit. This Branch is now organizationally
divorced from the Cartography Division to which it is similar in function
and personnel skills. Similarly, the Production Branch of the Publications
Division has among its principal activities the review (and correction)
of maps for technical accuracy, a function like that of Cartography
Division which produces some of the maps for the NIS Program. In this
same vein, a possibility for greater centralization and integration of
editors in the Publications Division and the Editorial Division might
be examined. Also, some consolidation of certain liaison and advisory
positions might be feasible. We recognize, however, that the physical
separation of OBI components may prevent consolidations that would
otherwise be possible. No firm estimate of manpower savings can be
made without detailed review of the 90 to 100 OBI positions involved
in the Program. Nonetheless, we believe that some organizational ad-
justments could result in a possible savings of up to 5 positions.
34. The study group also considered possibilities of achieving
Program savings by such drastic measures as printing NIS contributions
with little or no OBI editorial review and coordination, by reducing
quality of paper stock and other materials used in the printing process,
and by greatly reducing use of graphics (especially color). In the
opinion of the study group, the growing value and acceptance of the
NIS and the strong relationship of the NIS quality standards to the
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image of the Agency militates against economies that would have an
adverse effect on the acceptance of the NIS as an authoritative inter-
agency product. We conclude, therefore, that if budgetary and manpower
limitations dictate some cut back in the Agency contribution to and
support of the NIS Program, necessary savings are better achieved by
selective adjustments and reductions in the NIS products rather than
by possible measures which will result in general debilitation of the
Program quality standards.
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