MEMO TO THE HOLDERS OF THE (Classified) ESTIMATE OF THE COMMUNIST CHINESE AIR THREAT AGAINST INDIA DATED JANUARY 1963

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80S01499R000100040001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 30, 1998
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 6, 1964
• Content Type: REPORT

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CR
MEMO 1'O THE HOLDERS OF THEE
ESTIMATE OF THE COMMUNIST CHINESE
AIR THREAT AGAINST INDIA
DATED JANUARY 1563
6 May 1964
25X1X7
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6 May 1964
25X1X7 MEMORANDUM FOR: Holders of -Estimate of the Chinese Communist
Air Threat to India," dated 17 January 1963
1. Attached are revisions of the appendices to the above
estimate designed to provide up-to-date information on Chinese
Communist air order of battle.
25X1X7
2. The conclusions of the estimate (paragraphs 33-38)
remain basically valid. The entire matter of the Chinese
Communist threat to India is currently under review, including
the papers _ Estimate of the Chinese Communist Ground
Threat to India from Tibet and Sinkiang" and M Estimate 25X1X7
of Chinese Communist Capabilities for Attacking India Through
Burmese Territory" both dated 14 August 1963.
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CCAF/CCNAF AIR ORDER OF BATTLE'S
CCAF
17 JANUARY 1963)
15 APRIL 1964
TYPE OF AIRCRAFT
ROLE
NO.
FAGOT (MIG-15)
Jet Ftr (Day)
690
J
6
FRESCO (MIG-17)
Jet Ftr (Day)
785
78o
FRESCO D (MIG-17D)
Jet Ftr (LAW..!
)..~!
145
145
FARMER (MIG-19 )
Jet Ftr (Day
6o
869
1,680
1,625
BEAST (IL-bb)
Piston Engine Ftr
(Grnd Atk)
40
40
40
FAGOT (MIG-15)
Jet Ftr
(Grnd Atk)
J
30I
J
70
BAT (TU-2)
Piston Lt Bmr
100
90
BEAGLE (IL-28)
Jet Lt Bmr
175
160:.
BULL (TU-4)
Piston Med Bmr
15
15
BADGER (TU-16)
Jet Med Bmr
290
4~1
267
C!16/C17
Transport
30
30
CAB
Transport
35
35
COACH
Transport
35
30
COLT
COOT
Transport
Transport
25
2
5oW
2
CRATE
Transport
45
47
172
if
194
Helicopter
2,1?32
2,176
CCNAF
FAGOT
Jet Ftr (Day)
170
110w
FRESCO
Jet Ftr (Day)
~
70
55
FRESCO D
,,
Jet Ftr (LAW)S
30
30
270
225
This Appendix supersedes old Appendix A.
(Continued on following page)
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BAT
Piston Lt Bmr
5
BEAGLE
Jet Lt Bmr
150
136Y
155
135
CAB
Transport
15
15
COLT
Transport
5
15W
CRATE
Transport
5
5
25
b
35
MADGE
10
5
5
TOTAL
V0_
V0_
COMBINED C
F/C
F TOTAL
22,,672
2,576
Figures rounded to nearest five except for the BAKERS' COOTS, and CRATES.
b Reduction due to attrition.
c Limited all weather fighter
We do not believe that there has been an increase in FARMERS during the
pest year. Rather, we believe that our earlier estimate of 60 should have
been 80.
e/ Reference to 30 G-15 (FAGOTS), as being specially trained in ground
attack, was carried in a footnote to Appendix A in the study dated 25X1X7
17 January 1963 and was not included in the total.
A unit of 30 M3:(-l5 (FATS) continues to be specially trained in ground
attack. All FAGOT/FRESCO aircraft, however, are adaptable to ground
attack operations.
Although these BADGERS may participate in training activity, we do not
believe they are capable of conducting combat operations.
Increase due to domestic production.
Although H S probably have been produced within China for several
years, our first confirmed evidence of utilization within the CCAF? has
come within the past year.
This total adjusted to include the 30 ground attack FAGOTS, See Foot-
note "e" above.
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AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE REVISIONS*
The following information reflects the more important changes in estimated
aircraft performance characteristics from those provided in Appendix B to the
Threat Study dated 17 January 1963.
25X1X7
1. Change FRESCO A and B maximum knots at sea level (intercept mission
and ground attack) from 570 to M.. Change FRESCO C maximum knots at sea level
(intercept mission and ground attack) from 570 to 605* Change FRESCO D maximum
knots at sea level (intercept mission) from 570 to-E2-
2. Change FARME?3 A, C. and D maximum knots at sea level (ground attack)
from 570 ~Lo-
3. 3.
Change BEAGLE information as follows:
Bomb Wt. lbs. All-up Wt. lbs.
Maximum Kts. Combat Radius N.M,
Old
- New Old -
New
6,600
51,000
425
- 480 boo -
550
4,4oo
48,8oo
4.30
- 48o 610 -
560
2,200
46,600
435
- 485 620 -
570
2,200
40,500
445
- 490 400 -
310
4+. Change BADGER information as follows (assuming a 10,000 lb. bomb
load):
Fuel Wt. lbs. All-up Wt. lbs. Max. Kts. Cruise Kts. Combat Radius N.M.
Old - New Old - New Old - New Old - New Old - New
75,500-71,4OO 170,000-167,000 490 - 540 465 - 445 1,700 - 1,4.0
Also, delete the statement that the BADGER can carry a maximum bomb load
of 22,000 lbs. with a reduced radius of 1,300 n.m.
These changes revise certain portions of old Appendix B.
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5. Change CRATE information as follows:
Fuel Wt. lbs.
Old - New
5,500 - 5,550
1,6oo - 2,300
Freight lbs.
Old - New
l+, boo - 4., 750
8,500 - 8,100
Range N.M.
Old - New
1,400 - No change
400 500
6. Change COOT information as follows:
Fuel Wt. lbs.
Old - New
40,200 - No change
31,200 - 32,400
Freight lbs.
Old - New
22,000 - 23,000
31,000 - 30,800
Range N.M.
Old - New
2,500 - 2,480
1,600 - 1,840
7. Change COI!] information as follows:
Freight lbs.
Old - New
2,700 - 3,000
All-up Wt. lbs.
Old - New
11,500 - 12,700
Range N
485 - 855
Delete second line item on the COLT in its entirety.
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1r~NINfSE
R. OF BATTLE
? URUMCHI
-OSOCHE
I
COMMUNIST AIR ORD
AN 1 r
*f O?rs Area
1rned as ADPJ
TS '.PIT PIS", MEO IMON DMBR
BRS
SO PISTON tits
30 TRAIJSPO1t1~$
? KANTZU
CHENGTU(0.'.
WENCHIANG Southwest ADD
6S JET
i,t7TR5
f7
Q NETTUA4
ut4A~rn~a@
? CITIES
? AIRFIELDS
EW RADAR COVER: LINE OF SIGHT 40,000 FT.
GCI COVER: LINE OF SIGHT 40,000 FT.
POSSIBLE IN LINE
International Boundaries are not
necessarily authoritative.
THAILAND
TS$ F ,E?
'~ ~'ttI4N~P
.3 JFEfON EArI,~'CE ~. '. `
320 JET FIRS
20 JET IT 11M615
10 TRANSPORTS
c,LNroN t
~.--t`~ MACAO
PHILIPP NES
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S35 JET ~+tz
i0 JET
20 PISTON TTIS 1GINJ1
25 1,11 flPO EYS;
t:ast
465,JET EJS
40 METT i*BR~S
V
s'i'T ON tt BIEs!
2O;PfSTON ,ENG .F
J; ,'t6iND,'ATII)
Sad'cast`ABQ
ISO JET HIS
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AIRFIELDS IN TIBET AND WESTERN CHINA
The following is a revised summary of airfields in China which are
most likely to be used for operations against India.
39?31'N 75?58'E KASHGAR/ZANG KARAVUL
380251N 77?17'E SOCHE (YARKAND)
37009'N 79052'E HOTIEN (KHOTAN)
30030'N 91006'E LHASA (TANG-HSIUNG)
31?33'N 9101i4'E NAGCHHU DZONG
1+,000 feet, packed
gravel. (1.,000 feet
a.m.s.1.) serviceable.
3,800 feet, natural
surfacing. (4,1100
feet a.m.s.l.)
serviceable.
5,000 feet, packed
gravel. (3,000 feet
a.m.s.l.) serviceable.
13,000 feet, macadam.
(14,177 feet a.m.s.l.)
serviceable.
12,000 feet (est.)
cllaybound crushed rock.
(15,000 feet a.m.s.l.)
temporarily unserviceable.
36045'N 95035'E KA-ERH-1 (GOt ) 12,000 feet, macadam.
(98000 feet a.m.s.l.)
serviceable.
32?53'N 9601+7'E YUSHU 11,200 feet, claybound
crushed rock. (12,525
feet a.m.s.l.) serviceable.
This Appendix supersedes old Appendix D in its entirety.
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31037'N 1000021E KANTZU 11,000 feet, claybound
crushed rock. (11,500
feet a.m.s.l.) serviceable.
300h3'N 103?57'E CI TGTU/WENCHIANG 7,500 feet, concrete.
(1,700 feet a.m.s.l.)
serviceable.
25?27'N 1009 F'E PEITUN 7,800 feet, concrete.
(6,500 feet a.m.s.l.)
serviceable.
25'001N 102?L+5' E KUMaNG 9,800 feet, concrete.
(6,220 feet a.m.s.l.)
serviceable.
23?21'N 103?19'E MENGTZU WEST 7,900 feet, concrete.
(4,700 feet a.m. s.l. )
serviceable.
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