NIE-64 (PART I): SOVIET BLOC CAPABILITIES, THROUGH MID-1953

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A002100010005-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 19, 2000
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: April 4, 1952
• Content Type: MF

012AO02100010005-1 4A,
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
BOARD OF NATIONAL ESTfl RTES
.. April 1952
SUBJECT 1 ' -64 (Pm-,-t 1) : Soviet Bloc Capabilities,,
Through Mid-1953
1. The attached terms of reference wore approved by the
IAC representatives meeti ; c 4 April,.
2. it is requested that contributions be received in
this office by the chase of busineec on t Snd?y, 28 April.
3. The follcring allocation of production responsibilities
was made:
I O1l
Defense Agencies - Aq Dp F, Gv H.
11 O/RR
:III O~
Defense Agencies - Ea D6, F 'DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. i
0/SI Li DECLASSIFIED
Defense Agencies - B. CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS V . Ad
Dofenl a Agencies RUTH: R 70? H
`"t/ST -- -where interoeted; DATE? REVIEWER: +,~4...
acutlye Secretary
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S r1ATION
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
.INAL
4 April 1952
SUBJECT: TERMS OF REF=M=s NIE-64 (Part I): SOVIET BLOC
CAPABILITIES, THROUGH MID--1953
To estimate Soviet Bloc capabilities for political and
military warfare.
QUESTIONS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM
Ie 2MML O L I T I C A L FACTORS A F F E C T I N G SOV BLOC CAPAB
FOR '0, 7 "ITICAL AND MILITARY WARFARE'
This section seeks to determine the stability of the Soviet
regime in the USSR, the extent and strength of Soviet control ova
the European Satellites, the relationship between the USSR and
Con nmiist Chin., the stability of the Chinese Communist regime,
the factors which might produce change in any of these situations,
and, above all, the effect which these political factors may have
upon Bloc capabilities for political and military warfare.
11UMENT NO.
CONFIDENTIAL NO CHANGE N CLASS,
El DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S
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DATE: REViEV1t M. _
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A~ What is the relationship now existing in the USSR be-
tween the Comet Party, the Secret Police, and the
military forces? Are there any strains within any of
these groups or between the groups?
B. How successful has the Soviet regime been in winning
active support for, and in eliminating effective
opposition to, its domestic and foreign policies?
C. Which political or scsaial. problems within the USSR
might develop in such a way as either to weaken or to
strengthen Bloc capabilities for political and mili-
taay warfare?
D. What is the extent of the Kremlin's control over the
Agri Satellites and how is it exercised? To what
extent does Soviet control depend upon Soviet police
and military force, upon Satellite police and military
force? How successful has the Kremlin been in winning
active smart in the Satellites for its policies? In
eliminating effective opposition to those policies?
X. What is the extent of Kremlin influence or control over
Commift China and how is it exercised?
F. Which political or, social problems within the Satellites
or within. Communist China might develop in such a way as
either to weaken or to strengthen Bloc capabilities
for political and military warfare?
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G. What will be the probable effects upon the political
situation within the Bloc of the continuation of the
cold war and of the present conflicts in Korea and
Indochina, of extension of the war in the Fbr East,
of limited attacks in the 2 ddle East, of general war
without the use of mass destruction weapons, of general
war with the use of mass destruction weapons?
H. In each of these instances, how will the resultant
political developments within the Bloc affect Bloc
capabilities for political and m.litary warfare?
II. mcoi xC FACTORS A rFECTING SQ= GAM LM FOR PO ICAL
AM MILITARY WARFARE
The EIC study of Soviet economic capabilities should re-
solve most of the issues important here, and the task may be
:11'n4ted largely to checking data and ascertaining the impact of
the economic factors upon Bloc capabilities for both political
and military warfare. Our principal interests here are in the
followings
A. Current production of the key materials, products,
and weapons.
B. Current resource allocation of national income.
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C. Bloc ability to incase production of military
its,
Da, Bloc ability to expand industrial and agricultural
pduction.
E,, operational stocks and stockpiles of critical matev--
rialse egniptnsnt, and weapons.
F. Pattern of trade as it affects the Bloc economy and
military potential,,
G. Contribution to Bloc strength made by economies of
the Satellites and of G=mnist China. Ability of
Bloc to integrate its economies,
H. Status and probable effect of Soviet dispersal of
industry program,
I. Significance of foreign capital equipment, tech-
n1ml knowledge, and mterUls for Pining and
developing the ovrrent Bloc program.
J. Ability of the Bloc economy to produce new weapons
developed by Bloc scientists, while at same time
performing other critical functions E,
K. Indications that the long-term investment programs
designed to increase the productive capacity of
the WSRe the Satellites, and Commmist. China has
been, or will be, seriously altered to achieve
greater inmediate war readiness,
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L. In the various situations listed in I, 4, (page 3)1
la Which economic factors represent major points
of valmrability
2. What will be the ability of the Bloc economy to
support increased effort for political and mili-
tary warfare?
III. SOVIET BLOC-CAPABILITIES FOR POLITICAL WARFARE
Soviet Bloc political warfare techniques include political
and economic pressure, diplomatic action in the UN and elsewhere,
propaganda and front activities,, the actions of Communist Parties
and Communist Party-controlled trade unions outside the Bloc,
support of various kinds of revolutionary movements, and psycho-
logical warfare?
A. What has been the impact of the expansion of Soviet
power since World War II upon the International Com,.
must movement?
B. To what degree does Soviet-Bloc military power con-.
tribute to the effectiveness of the Bloc's political
t .carfare?
C., To what extent has the emergence of Comm nist China
?+.ff Bloc political warfare?
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D. What are the Commmist capabilities for political
tumrfare, area by area (Western Europe, ZUddle East,
etc.)?
1. What are the political strength and stability
of the principal governments in the area?
2. What are the political orientations of the prin-
cipal non.-Co monist opposition groups?
3. What is the strength and influence of each of
the Comm mist Parties?
4. Does the economic situation offer opportunities
for Moo economic pressure and other forms of
political warfare? What are the Bloc capabil-
ities for influencing neutrals through economic
pressure?
5. What is the susceptibility of the people of each
important country to Commaan3.st propaganda, to
military pressure, and to other political war-
fare techniques?
6.. What is the attitude of the people toward rearmoa-
wont? Toward the East-West struggle?
E. What is the over-all outlook for Bloc political warfare
capabilities during the period of this estimate?
F. What will be the probable effect of Bloc political war-
fare efforts upon the strength and determination of the
non-Conmimist world? Upon Bloc military capabilities
in the event of. war?
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I7, SCIENT (C AND T itICAI FACTORS AFFECTING SOFT BIB
CAPABILITIES FOR MILITARY WARFARE
This section should estimate the current capability and
probable develop?eats of :cbvi et Bloc science and the effect Bloc
science may have upon Bloc military capabilities. It should pro-
vide an Dell, view of the more complex Bloc technical weapons
and stems s of the status of research and development in the most
Important fields, and of the application of Bloc. science and tech-
nology to combat capabilities r
A. Min section is designed to provide a general assess-
ment of Soviet Bloc scientific and technical capabil-
it es, and of the trends of Soviet Bloc scientific and
to :hni cal development..
lw Priority assigned to Soviet Bloc scientific re-
search and development.
Quality and quantity of scientists and of engi_
niT'TB.F in groups 6
3. mining and educational institutions
1., Effect of ideology.
5. Significance of information acquired abroad
6Q Satellite and Chinese Communist contributions,
7. Id t.tations upon research and development,
Vulnerability of research and development facil-
ities to attack.,
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B. This section is designed to provide an analysis of
Bloc capabilities in the most important scientific
and technological fields, and of the weapons and
weapons systems which wifl probably be developed
and produced.
1 Atomic u?mapons
(a) Fissionable
(b) Thermonuclear
2. Radiological creapons
3. Biological weapons
4. Chemical weapons
5. aectronies equipment (C cations, Radar and
Fire Control, Radio Navigation, Infra-Red, ECM,
Sonar, Influence Fuzes)
6. Ou ded Missiles (SAM, ASM, SSM, AAM)
7. Aerial Weapons (Bomber, Fighter, Attack, and Other
Special. Purpose Craft; Engines, Armament, Equipment)
8e, tend Combat Weapons (Tanks, .Artillery, Anti-tank,
Mines, Bridging, Snail Arms)
9. Antiaircraf Artillery (Artillery Rockets)
10, Special Arctic Equips,
11. Naval Weapons (Surface, Submarine, Coastal )
12Q New Weapons Systems likely to appear not falling
into one of the above,
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0. Over-an effect of Bloc science and technology upon
Bloc tacticse strategy, and military capabilities.
V. SOVIET BLOC MILITARY STRENGTH MID CAPABILITIES
A. E imated Bloc P it= 9trensth
to Present strength - size, imposition, equipment,
nobility, tom, morale, combat efficiency,
disposition, and coordination -- of the met,
Satellite, and Chinese Communist military forces
and of those forces coordinated.
2. Size and quality of present holdings of military
equipment by Soviet Bloc military forces, esti-
rated size., quality, and disposition of military
stockpiles, military consumption rates of Moo
forces under cold and hot war conditions.
3. Coordination and direction of the forces of the
aloe -- grow id forces, airborne forces, navy and
rreaant fleets, and air forces,.
$d Bloc strategic and tactical concepts.
H m ins Sloetaa Cagabties
1. Capacity of Bloc forces to initiate and maintain
(i. e.,.capacities of limas of commu cation,
Eaupplies of manpower and materiel, etc.) various
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3 fds of military campaigns, including those in-
volving amphibious operations* present conflicts
in Korea and Tdochina, extension of war in Far
Fast, limited attacks in Middle East, general war
urithout use of mass destruction weapons, general
war with time of moo destruction weapons.
2~ Capacity of Bloc to defend itself against, air
attack, including atomic attack, and to carry
attack to UK and US. (Bloc atomic inventory,
number and range of Bloc aircraft capable of de-
atomic bombs, probable Bloc target
riorities, operational readiness of Bloc long-
~,mnm aircraft)
Capacity of Bloc to maintain campaigns while
?sconoi r and, supply lines under various kinds of
attack,
4. Capacity of Bloc forces to hold and utilize
territories added to Bloc or overrun by Bloc
:tore s in early stages of any war,,
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