SOVIET MANPOWER AND PHYSICAL PRODUCTION, 1950-1960

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01149A000500170010-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 20, 1998
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: August 24, 1956
• Content Type: IR

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US DOC No, S-4
Copy No.
SOVIET MATPOZ".ER AND PITIYSICAL PRODUCTION, 1950-1960
This intelligence report was prepared as part
of the US contribution to a NATO study comparing
economic trends in the Free World and the Sino-
Soviet bloc. Other parts of the US contribution
concerned with the USSR are: S-5, Soviet GNP:
1950-1960 and S-6, Soviet GNP: 1960=97".7-
Av,gust 24, 1956
OP, CLA;aS7FIED
NO ("AC IN CLASS. t7
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: ____-- _....REVIE'VVER, (1
0 5 JUN 1980
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
A. Population, 1950-1960 . . . . . . . . . ? . . . . . . < . . ... 1
B. Labor Force, 1950_1960 . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . 5
C. Industrial Production, 1950-1960 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
D. Agricultural Production, 1950-1960 . . . . . . . 12
LIST OF TABLES
Population of the USSR, 1950-60 . . . . 2
2w. Birth and Death Rates for Selected Years . . . . . . . . . . 3
3* Residence Distribution of Soviet Population . . . . . . . . . 4
4. Civilian Labor Force of the USSR, 1950-60 . . . . . . . . . . It 6
5. Soviet Production Indexes, 5th and 6th FYP , . . . . . . . . . 9
6. Output of Selected Industrial Commodities , . . . . . . . . . 10
7* Growth of Output of Selected Commodities. . . . . . . . . . . . 11
8. Sources of Commercial Energy in USSR 11
9. Output of Selected Agricultural Commodities . . . . . . . . . 13
.i-.
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SOVIET IPO R AND PHYSICAL PRODUCTION, 1950-1960
A. Population, 1950-1960
The new Soviet handbook, Nero dnoye Rhos~yaystva SSSIR, (The National
Economy of the USSR), April 1956, provides the first official collection
of data on population and manpcwer in the USSR since 1939. The population
estimates presented in the handbook are based on registration statistics
and not on census enumeration. Soviet authorities themselves have indicated
problems in the compilation of registration statistics which suggest that
the population figures published in the handbook may be conservative. In
addition, reoonstruction of population trends shows that the net population
losses during the 1941-.44 period (inclusive) were extremely high -- on the
order of 26 million people; gross losses, including those due to declines
in the birth rate and to high mortality rates, would be between 35 and 40
million people. Thus, while the data recently published in the handbook
are credible, it is likely that a census would have indicated a somewhat
higher population for recent postwar years.
Pending further examination of Soviet population trends since 1939, the
estimates of the population of USSR for the period 1950-1960 are based on
the data in the handbook.
These estimates were derived from the April 1956
population figure given in the handbook, subtracting (for the pre-1956 years)
or adding (for the post 1956 years) the estimated annual natural increases.
The estimates of annual natural increase for the years prior to 1956 were
derived from the birth and death rates published in the handbook, (See
Table 2); these rates of natural increase were then projected to 1960,
An urban-rural breakdown of the total population for selected years is
presented in Table 3.
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Distributed by Voter and Boa-Voter Cate orics
j11il:.Ioi1s of >crsons
(L-Li
Yoar
1 January
Total
Population
,3vmnber of Voters
18 Years Old. or
older
ur~iuor of
Yon-Voters
, r ra ;;o Size per
1 year oohort
O-17 years old
1930
130.9
111.1**
69.3
1;.54
1951
1.81.0
1 **
13.
1
70.9
3,64
1952
18792
9
1
115.1*1,
71.6
3.69
19i
190.4
118.4
72.0
3.75
1954
193.4
120,8**
7 2.6
3.81
1955
196.6
123.2**
73 .6
3.89
1956*
200.2;%*
12506
74.6
3.98
1957*
203.7
12708
750 9
4.02
1958*
207* 2
12 9.8
7704
4.13
1959=
210e8
131* 6
79.2
4 38) labor requirements of agriculture. Labor inputs were calculated
for individual crops and adjusted for changes in teohnology and
institutional structure.. The adjusted labor input coefficients were then
applied to the 1951 estimates of agricultural production. Administrative
and subsidiary agricultural workers were calculated independently and added
to provide a total agricultural labor force estimate for 1951. The agri-
cultural labor force for other years was obtained by adding estimates of
net increase to the base year (1951) force.
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sr 7
The industrial labor force is calculated from data on the number of
workers and employees given in the Soviet Handbook and from data in the
Sixth Five Year Plano Members of producers cooperative artels, which are
included in the industrial category of Table 4, are estimated to have been
42 million in 1950, 1,7 million in 1954, and 1.6 million in 1955. The
estimates for the years 1951, 1952 and 1953 are interpolations, It is not
likely, from the evidence of the Fifth Five Year Plan period, that this
group will grow markedly during the Sixth Five Year Plan, The category
ether non-agriculture" in Table 4 is a residue.
Cq Industrial Production 1950-1960
l.. Ag,re ate indexes, Soviet industrial production during the Fifth
Five-Year Plan increased by 76 percent,, thereby substantially overfulfilling
the plan goal, Heavy industry, due to its favored position as a_resource
claimant, grew by 82 percent while the output of light industry increased
by only 54 percent.
The Sixth Five-Year Plan calls for industrial output to be 65 percent
greater in 1960 than in 1955. It is estimated that increases in invest-
ment and labor force will enable Soviet industry to meet this target,
Furthermore, in the light of substantial overfulfillments in both the Fourth
and Fifth Five-Year Plans, and considering that Soviet policy consistently
seeks to maximize industrial growth, utilizing for this purpose all
unforeseen opportunities arising during the course of a planning period,
overfulfillment of the industrial target is regarded as possible?
The indexes of industrial production presented in Table 5 were cal-
culated in the following manner, For the period 1951.-55, individual
sector indexes were-constructed by using commodity production estimates and
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1950 Soviet price weights. These sector indexes were in turn combined
into indexes for heavy and light industry and total production using
GNP value-added weights, The differences between these calculated
indexes and the Soviet index are probably attributable to the following
factors: 1) a poor sample of machinery and equipment items which may
understate the calculated growth of this sector; 2) an undetermined
amount of double counting, in the Soviet index in excess of that in the
calculated index which may overstate the relative importance of fast
growing industries; 3) the possible introduction of new products at newly
established prices into the Soviet production index for which no allowance
is made in the estimated Soviet index.; and 4) the inclusion of an index
of home-processed foods in the calculated index for light industry, which
depresses the latter index relative to the official index,
2. C ity Output. Tables 6, 7 and 8 present estimates of the
physical output of selected industrial commodities,* i~`ith the exception
of non-ferrous metals, the data were derived from official Soviet
announcements of plan fulfillment, the Sixth Five Year Plan decrees,
and the recent Soviet handbook, Narodnoye 't%ozyaystvo SSSR. The non-
ferrous metals were derived independently from estimates of the require-
ments for these metals.
* The selected commodities correspond to these presented in Tables 11,
12 and 13 of NATO document C-11(55)119, except that a few additional
items are included in Table 6.
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'Vi'i. 9
TABLE 5
SOVIET PRODUCTION INDEXES FOR TH FIFTH AND SIXTH FIVE-YEAR PLANS
(1950100)
Fifth Five-Year Plan
(1955=100)
Sixth Five-Year Plan
Total Industry
176**
165
Heavy Industry
l82**
170
Energy
171
173
Metals
174
153
Chemicals
168
186
Construction Materials
250
245
Forest Products
123
123
Machinery and Metalworking*
202
180
Military end-items
182
142
Light Industry
154**
147
Food Products
130
130
Manufactured Consumer Goods
172
153
Consumer Durables
385
228
* Includes military end-items.
** The Soviet official indexes (1950=100) for these three items are as follows:
Total Industry 185
Heavy Industry 191
Light Industry 176
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WWWW
TABLE 6
OUTPUT OF SELECTED INDUSTRIAL COMrDIT IFS
(1954, 1955 and 1960)
Conodity
1954
1955
1960
Hard coal
Mil. MT
240
272
407
Crude petroleum
Mil. MT
59
71
135
Electric power
B il. 1CVH
151
170
320
Crude steel
7Y11.1 bu
41
45
68
Copper, refined
Thous, MT
413
462
739
Aluminum
Thous., MT
505
58 8
1235
Sulphuric acid
Mil. MT
3
4
7
Cement
Mil, I111
19
22
55
Commercial vehicles
Thous. Units
301
329
430
Passenger Cara
Thous. Units
96
l09
201
Merohant vessels
Thous. GIRT
100
103
148
Agricultural Machinery
Mil, 1955 Rubles 4150
5398
9500
Metal Cutting Machines
Thous, Units
102
118
200
Forging-pressing Ikohines
Thous, Units
15
16
26
Metallurgical Equipment
Thous. MT
1 54
172
280
Lumber
Mil.. ou. in.
61
58
80
Footwear, leather
Mil, prs.
280
299
455
Cotton Fabrics
Mil. meters
5590
5904
7270
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TABLE 7
GROWTH OF O'UTPU'2 OF SELECTED C01411ODIT IES
1937 ?`7.00
Comm dity 1937 1948 1950 1953 1954 1955 1960
Hard coal 100 136 167 201 217 246 369
Electrio power 100 132 251 367 417 470 884
Crude petroleum 100 102 133 185 208 248 474
Crude steel 100 107 153 215 232 2 55 336
Copper, refined 100 229 302 393 413 462 739
Aluminum 100 355 553 1145 1329 1547 3250
SOURCES OF COMMERCIAL ENERGY USSR: 1937, 1950, 1955, AND 1960
(Millions Metric Tons Coal Equivalent)*
Commodity
Hard coal
Lignite
Crude petroleum
Natural gas
Hydro -electr io ity
Total
1937 1950 1955 1960
110"4 184.2 272,0 407.0
111? 51.5 79.7 124m6
37.0 49,1 91.0 175.5
1.5 4.9 8.4 33.0
2.9 8.9 1398 35.4
163.6 298,6 464.9 775,5
* Conversions were made on the basis of the oonversion faotors given
in the United Nations' Yearbook 1951,..
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D. Agricultural Production., 1950-1960
Agricultural production increased only slightly during the period
of the Fifth Five Year Plan. The production of food crops increased only
10 percent while the production of industrial crops increased only 15
percent, The elevated status given to agriculture in 1953 is expected to
be maintained during the Sixth Five Year Plan. Increased investments the
revisions in crop pattern, and maintenance of higher monetary incentives
are expected to induce an expansion of agricultural output during the
Sixth Five Year Plan period. It is estimated that the production of food
crops will increase by more than 20 percent and.~~he production of
industrial crops by more than 30 percent between 1955 and 1960.
Estimates of the annual average production of selected commodities
are presented in Table 9. These estimates were derived from plan fulfill-
ment announcements, the Sixth Five Year Plan decrees and the new Soviet
handbook.
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TABLE 9
Coxes dity unit Average Output Average Output
Bread. Grains Mil. MP 56
Fodder Grains Mil. MT 32
OUTPUT OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL COM10DITIES AND LIVESTOCK
65
45
Potatoes Mil. ~66 51
Cotton, ginned Thous. MT 1322 1590
'Wlool, grease basis Thous. MT 225 304
Sugar, raw Thous. MT 3104 4548
Meat Thous. MT 3500 4700
Cattle Mil. head* 57.5 nbas
Pigs Mil* head' 27.9 n.a.
Sheep and Goats Mil. head* 105.5 n. a.
* Average of 1 January figures for the five years.
195155 1956.-60
State, FD/R -- Wash., D.C.
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