NEW NIE ON IRAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010043-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 16, 2000
• Sequence Number: 43
• Publication Date: September 15, 1952
• Content Type: MEMO

e-ApOroved For Release 2040,461114430937A000200010043-3
19B1V0.-
SECURITY INFORMATION
25X1X7
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTE1ATES
15 September 1932
STAY? MEMORAMUTI No. 269
SUBJECT: New NIE on Iran
1. The need for a new National Intell Diete Estimate on
Iran is widely agreed The 25X1X7
response. and 04 agree that a new DS estimate its called
for and that its execution is feaeible. The 0/NE Staff believes
that basic elements in the Iranian situation have become clear
enough for an estimate to be made.
2. Sufficient time has passed since the anti-Cleven riots
to permit a re-examination of the relative strength of the baalc
Internal economic and political forces affecting the Iranian
situation. These include the strength and cohesiveness of the
National Front movement, the position of the Shah and the Army,
the role of Tedehl and economic and financial trends.
3. At the same time, however, the oil dispute remains a
central issue in the Iranian situation. Development? in the oil
dispute, and as a result in the whole political situation in
Iran, will depend fully as much on the actions and policies of
the US and the UK as on events in Iran itself. The Staff, there-
fore, feels that a mere revision of 111E-46 would be of little
value because it would leave out of account the effects on the
Iranian situation of ;alternative 13S4X policies and actions.
4. With the above in mind, the Staff recommends initiation
of a new estimate which would focus primarily on basic factors in
the Iranian situation which are likely to remain constant, and on
the consequences of certain broad alternative courses of action
available to the US with respect to In. These can be stated
in very general terms as:
a. Continuation of present US policy of furthering
a negotiated settlement between Iran and the,F.
DOCUMENT NO. 04, ?
-6BOBBEIL
Approved For Release-2000/08/29 : CIA-
NOCHANGEINCLASS ra
0 DECLASSIFIED
SS CHANGED 70; TS Se
9395m44110.100434-
A
REVIEWER: .(936-0
Approved For Release 20441A1fl'jMNIVNI1J0937A000200010043-3
- 2 -
b. US support for Iran os national aspirationsowith
or without the concurrence of the UK, in the hope
of keeping Iran out of the Soviet orbit;
0. Unqualified support of the UK in its policies
toward Iran; and
d. Withdrawal of US interest and influence from the
Iranian problem.
5. The Staff believes that this estimate dhould be done
on an urgent schedule, since the trends seem to be toward a
climax in the near future which r require major policy
decisions t7 the US
25X1C
25X1A9a
SBCRET
CONFIDENTIAL
Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010043-3