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APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004400050008-4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY JPRS L/9958 3 September 1981 USSR Re ort p ENERGY CFOUO 14/81) FBIS FOREIGN BROADCAST INFORMA"fION SERVICE FOR OFFICIAL USE dNLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 NOTE . JPRS publications contain information primarily from foreign newspapers, periodicals and books, but also from news agency transmissians and broadcasts. Materials from foreign-language sources are translated; those from English-language sources are transcribed or reprinted, with the original phrasing and other characteristics retained. Headlines, editorial reports, and material enclosed in brackets [J are supplied by JPRS. Processing indicators such as [Text] or [Excerpt] in the first line of each item, or following the last line of a brief, indicate how the original information was processed. Where no processing indicator is given, the infor- mation was summarized or extracted. Unfamiliar names rendered phonetically or transliterated are enclosed in paxentheses. Words or names preceded by a ques- tion mark and enclosed in parentheses were not clear in the original but have been supplied as appropriate in context. Other unattributed parenthetical notes within the body of an item originate with the source. Times within items are as given by source. The contents of this publication in no way represent the poli- cies, views or at.titudes of the U.S. Government. COPYRIGHT LAWS AND REGULATIONS GOVERNING OWNERSHIP OF MATERIALS REPRODUCED HEREIN REQUIRE THAT DISSEMINATION OF THIS PUBLICATION BE RESTRICTED FOR OFFIC?AL USE ONLY. APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 JPRS Z/9958 3 September 1981 USSR REPORT ~ ENERGY (FOUG 14/81) CONTENTS ELECTRIC POWER Dynamic Methoda of Analyais of the Development of Power System Grids (V. A. Dale, et al.; DINAMICI~SKIYE METODY ANALIZA RAZVITIYA SETEY ENERGOSISTEM, 1979) 1 _ FUELS Recent Results, Future Taska of Oi1, Gas Exploration Told (V. V. Semenovich;~iGEOLOGIYA NEFTI I GAZA, Jun 81) 8 Melik-Pashayev's Book About Oilfield Operations Reviewed by Cholovskiy . (I. P. Cholovskiy;~ GEOL~GIYA NEFTI I~GAZA, Jun 81) 16 Methods for Economic Evalua tion of Oil Reserves Explained (A. I. Zhechkov, N. M. Nikolayevakiy; NEFTYANAYA PROMYSHLENNOST': SERIYA ERONOMIKA, No 5, 1980) 21 Ways To Co~ute Oil Well Flow Ratea for Undiacovered Fielda Told (0. I. Dorokhov, et al.; NEFTYANAYA PROMYSHLENNOST': SERZYA EKONOMIRA, No 5, 1980) 29 = Off-Shore Drilling of Engiaeering=Geological Wells (T_gor' Vaevolodovich Arkhangel'skiy; MORSKOYE BURENIYE INZHENERNO-GEOLOGICHESKIRH SKVAZHIN, 1980) 32 Well-Drilling Tools (Igor' Kirillovich Maslennikov, Grigoriy Ivanovich Matveyev; INSTRUMENT DLYA BURENIYA SKVAZHIN, 1981) 35 - a - [III - USSR - 37 F~UO] F(1R AFFT['IA1. TT.CF (1NT.Y APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004400050008-4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONI.Y I I ~ ~ ELECTRIC POWER I ; ' i ~ , 1mC 621.311.1:681i140 ~ DYNAMIC M~'TIiODS OF ANALYSIS OF THE DEYELOPMENT OF POYE'R 3Y3TEM GRIDS I ; Riga DINAMIG~iESIQYE I+~'Z+ODY ANALIZA ~AZVITIYA SETEY ENgtG03TSTEM in Rus+aia.n 1979 ~ (aigiled to press 17 Jan 79) PP lr ~-9~ 257-z~ ' ~Book by V. A. Dale~ Z. P. Krishan and 0. G. P~egl~ ~ ~Excerpt~ i i Titles DINAMICHFSKIYE ME'I~ODY ANALIZA RAZYITIYA SE~Y ENII~GOSISTEM (Dynamic ; Methods of Analysis of the Development of roxer System Grids~ Authors: Y. A. Dale~ Z. P. Krishan and 0. G. Paegle Puhlisher~ Zinatne ' Place and year of puUlication~ Riga~ 1979 ~ Signed to Press Datee 17 January 1979 ! Nwnber of Copies Pub~].isheds 1,000 ' Number of Pagest 260 I ~ ~ Annotation: ; Dale, V. A.~ Krishan~ Z. P.~ Paegl~~ 0. G. Dinamicheskiye metoc~y ana~iza. razvit~.ya ~ setey energosistem. -Rigat Zinatne~ 1979� -260 pages. I i ~ In the examples of research results in developing electric poker systems are exam- ~ ined the basic methodologival problems of modeling the grid development prc~cess ~ connected frith formulating optimization tasks, selecting criteria, estimating the factor of the c~ynamics of development~ and also conditioned 'by the complexity of ' modern systems and the inaccuracy of l~ng-range data. ~ Set forth are ma.thematica.l programming methods inten3ed to optimize the develapment ~ of electric power s,ystem grids as xell as methods for calculating the distribution ' of poxer flows in complex systems in conformity xith the taasks of optimizing devel- ; opment. ! The results of research conducted at the Physical Poxer Ir,stitute of the Iatvian SSR Academy of Sciences have been uaea and summaxized. Experimental materia.l obtain- ed mainly during the practical wse of concre'te mathematical models has been xide].y utilized. 1 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY There are 13 ~~es, idl illustrations, and 100 b~htiographic entries. Pu'411shed by the decision of the editorial puhlishing council of the La.tvian SSR Academy of Sciences of 27 October 1977� The fulfillment of the tasks set by the garty a,nd the USSR government on develaping the national economy of the co~sntry requires an improvement both in the theory and the practice of national economic planning. "A further increase in its scientific level xill become a task of paremount importance. The necessity to improve plan- ning methods ha.s ripened. It ~ust be guided by the most precise study af social requirements~ the scientific forecasts of ouc sconomic possiMlities~ their immed- _ iate and Iong-term consequences, and the thorough an,alysis and assessment of the various solution altex~natives. In order to solve thia crucial anc~ complex problem, - it is necessaxy to extend the horizons of economic planning."1 The improvement of planning methods is currently linked to the use of modern mathe- matioal methods based on the use of computers and the creation of automated con.trol systems: "the use of modern computing anci control machines leads to a genuine revol- ~ ution not only in the technology of production but also in economics~ planning~ accounting, planning and design developments~ and in scien~ific research itself."2 This book ha.s been devoted to the prohtem of the long-term design and planning of the development of system-generating electric power system grids,by using mathe- matical modeling methods. Prohtems~ of.the long-term design and planning of grid development occu~y an importa.nt place in the total prohtem of planning poxer sy- stem development and they have aoq,uired a special urgency in connection xith the creation of large-scale power associations and the United Powe~ Syatem of the USSR. At the same time the task of planning grid developm~ent is one of the moat complex. Starting from the viex of an electr3c poxer system as a large system with a complex hierarchic structure~ it is neceasary to consider the folloKing features of these tasks. They are not isolated, but always closely connected with the other tasks in the development of a poxer system. The adoption of solutions on developing elec- tric power systems is also a complicated process in xhich~ in particular, the trust- worthiness of the initial data must 'be tAken into considerat3on. Tharefore~ during the analysis of grid development~ of real syatems, the pro~ess df seeking solutions is not limited to finding a simple formally optimum solutiont but a sufficiently wide range of aolutions is atudied (1, 31~ 52~ 53~ 56, 61-631. ~ Research in the area of ~eveloping optimization methods for the development of - electMc poxer system grids is being conducted in a nwaber of ~cientific research organiza.tions of our country? and alao at~oa,d. At the present time the methods of _ planning gx~id development through the use of optimum or appraisable mathematical models have alreac~y found practical application in all countries with a developed power econoa~y (12~ 33-35~ ~2� 69~ 85~ 95~ 99)� The tendency is becoming strcnger to switch from the solution o~ isolated grid tasks to the solutlon of over-all op- timization tasks for fi.he development of electric poxer associations be.sed on inter- +~elated mathematical model systems using total information(68, 75~ 77~ 81, 100). ev, opmsy upravlenixa ekonomikoy rszvitogo sotsia.listicheskogo ob- shchestva. Rechi,_doklady, vystupleniya"jroblems in Directing the Economy of a Developed Socialist Soc3aty. Speeches~ reports~ addresses , Moscox, Politi2dat~ 1976, P 30~� 2. It~.d. ~ p 10. 2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000400050008-4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Various optimization methods are being developed because of the large variety of concrete tasks in the long-term pla,nning of grid development. Txo approaches have been outlineds sta.tistically, during which the real continuous process of develop- ing grids is not considered, a.nd c~ynamically. by considering the interdependenoe of solutions adopted at various points in time. Methods of optimizing grid cir- cuits with a given loa.d level~ i.e.~ sta.tistical methods, ha.ve been more fully studied. The method of coordinate optimization, the method of t~anches and borders and others, for exam~le, are used (36, 45~ 47, 58, 60, 72~ 78~ 86, 89). Dyna.mic methods for optimizing the development of grids have been less studied 78, 82, 83r 87, 88~ 93)� The problem of dimension is basic during the solu- tion of c~ynamic optimization ta.sks. Attempts to solve it in some operations ha.ve been linked to the use of special procedurest random search~ "truncated c~ma.mic _ programming," and others. Also the probiems of mapping the properties of optimized objects (this concerns the methods of accounting for such factora as multimodality, reliabd.lity, etc.) and pro- blems of using mathematical methods in the practice of designing and planning grid development have been inadequately researched in mathematical models. The dyna.mic problems examined in the present monograph are being formulated as lo- cating the sequence of ineasur.es for the grid development of a system (a variation of grid development) 'by using an integra,l technica.l and gconomic criterion during the design period. Grid prohlems in such a set-up often axise in the design and planning process. The requirement for the utiliza.tion of appropriate optimization methods ha.s also been linked to the reallzation of the process of the continuous planning of electric power system development. i ~ The book suinmarizes the results of the stuc~y of the dynamic methods of the optim- ization of the development in conformity xith system-generating grids (grids of the 220 kilovolt and higher class), conducted at the Physical Power Institute of the Latvian SSR Acaden~y of Sciences during the period 1970-19?6. At the institute they worked up a number of mathematical models intended for pla.nning the develop- ment of grids (22-24, 51), and also experience has been gained in the practical use of c~ynamic methods during the joiilt operation xork with the Southxestern Branch of the institute Energoset'proyekt~ll-Union State Planning~ Surveying and Scieni.ific Research Institute of Power Systems and Electric Poxer Network~, the united dispatching administration of the power systems of the Northwest USSR, and the La.tvian division of tota.l planning of the institute Energoset'proyekt (20, 21, 25, 26~ 32-35~ 79). The first section of the monograph examines the general protalems of optimizing large systems in power engineering which at the present time have been inadequa.tely studied. Our ana.lysis was aimed at concretizing some general theses in conformity with the tasks of optimizing electric power system development. Our experience and also the data of other researchers (9~ 29, ~r 75) shox that during the practical utilization of mathematical models~ the decisive role in eval- ua.ting solutions belongs to the individua.l. Any, even perfect~ models are only a means for ca.rrying out the required calculations. There are a number of rea.sons for such a situations the complexity of ~the optimization ta,sks the interrslation- ship of them with other ta.sks of system development planning, ~he inevita.ble F'OR OFFIC~AL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY incomglete enunciation of these ta.sks~ the impossibility of formally describing a number of important (from an engineering point of view) factors in the optimization models ~ the inaccuracy of the initial data.~ etc. Therefore the book ha,s pa.id ? great attention to the problems of the practical application of mathema.tical models. An azza.lysis of inethodological questions connected with the modeling of developing systems and the use of mathematical models is based on experimer:.+,al data obta.ined : undex conditions typical of real grid projects. Su~h proj6cts are chara.cterized by a larg~ amount of data. The book~ as a rule, presents simplified illustrations which provide the basic details of the questions studiedo The authors have tried to give a quantitative appraisal for the substa.ntiation of one or a.~other recommend- ation. This, f~r example, concerns the recommendations touching the calculation of the fac~tor of dynamics during an ana,lysis of grid development~ an appra.isal of the errors determined by data inaccuracy and circuit equivalency, an assessment of the size of the rang~ of equally economical solutions, etc. - The second section exan?ines the methods for calculating power flow distribution in complex electrica.l grids in conformity xith the tasks of analyzing grid development. The questions on modeling floK 3lstribu~�ion are important in the ~roblem of the math- ematica.l modeling of grid development processes because the algorithms used in oper- ational pra.ctice for computing flow distribution cannot be used in optimiza.tion models beca.use of an insufficiently fast response (32r 34~ 51~ 86, 93). The material cited in this section represents a aumma.ry of the research conducted at the Physi- - ca.l Power Institute of the Latvian SSR Academy of Sciences on the development of special methods for computing grid modes in conformity with the tasks of optimizing their development. The theoretical bases of these methods as far as more conven- iently using the special description of equations characterizing the mode of the electrica.l grid for long-term ca.lculations have been stated in sufficient detail. Moreover tb3 authors start from the position that it must be in agreement xith the requirements adopted for long-term ~lar~ning. A number of algorithms~ well-suite~ for practioal use, have been examined while the main attention has been paid to the questions of providing fast reaction~ to an analysis of the conditions of the convergence of iterative algorithms~ the a.greement of the flox distribution computation accuracy With the accuracy of determining technica.l and economic indicators during a comparison of alternat9ve~ methods. The methodological questions and recommenda.tions on the use of the sta.t~d methods for computing flox distribution are illustrated by experimental data obtained for real grid projects. The third section examines the c~ynamic methods for optimizing grid development for ~ projects~ including a large number of elements. For such projects the modeling is conducted, taking into account the presence of existing grids~ multi-modality and other factors which have been considered during the long-range planning of the grid development of electric power associations. The indicated modeling features~ as a rule~ have been connected with the necessity of solving multi-step optimization ta.sks of great dimension with discrete variables. The methods stated for their so- lution are based on the use of c~ynamic progra.mming procedures with the utilization of the structural features of the grid tasks. Some problems in the realization of the dyna.mi.c programming method have been stated in xork number 19� Bibliographic item 19 has exa.mined the methods used ~crr grid projects described in relation to a simple model. Their immediate utilization for the optimization of system-generat- ing grid development~ depicted by a complex model with a large nwnber of profiles~ _ ~ , APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - has appea.red impossible. Algorithms for rea.lizing the dyn~.mic programming method in conformity with grid projects having a complex structure are based on the ca.l- culation of several additional properties of such projects. The present work fo- cuses chiefly on the problems of substantiating the realizaMlity of these algo- rithms. In pa.rticular, the results of theoretical and experimenta.l research in the area of their use are presented. Examples ha,ve been presented for the realiz- ation of optimiza.tion algorithms for concrete tasks. Problems of the approximate optimiza.tion of grid development and the solution of multi~mode optimization ta.sks ha.ve been examined. All of the pmposed algorithms have been carried into e~fect by us in the form of programs and complexes of programs and ha.ve been tested during the solution of ~ practical optimiza.tion tasks of grid development. The full texts of these programs are not presented in the book. Only the fundamental queations ha.ve 'been exarained which are connected with the structure of data computing complexes intended for analyzing grid development with a representa.tion of the developing grid projects in the optimization ma.thematical models and the organization of the computing pro- cess during optimization calculations on a computer. The experimental data, presented in the b~ok have been ma.inly intended to illus- trate methodological situations. They ha.ve 'been obtained on a second generation (M-220~ B~ESM) as well as a third generation computer (united system computer). At the same time the authors hav~ ~onsidered it advisa.ble to shox in more detail the individual blocks ha.ving the most significant importance for the pra,ctical realiz- ation of the dynamic m~thod of optimization on a computer. Some blocks have been presented in the form of sufficiently detailed flow charts. For a number of blocks characterized by a relatively complex logical structure~ the full text has been presented in the appendices in algorithmic language PL-1. The authors wish to thank the associates of the Physica.l Power Institute of the La.tvian SSR Academy of Sciences I. Ya. Greyvule and I. Y. Zvirgzdinya for thei'r participa.tion in conducting the experimenta.l research. Please send comments on the book and suggestions to the following addresss 226G06 Riga, 21 Ayzkrauk7.es Street, the Physical Power Institute of the Iatvian 53R Academy of Sciences. Tahle of Contentss Page Preface.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~� 5 Section 1. Methods for Resea,rehing Electric Power System Development _ with the Help of Mathema.tica.l Madels Chapter 1. General Problems in Resea.rching Electric Power System Grid Development~~~~~�~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~��~~~~� 1~. Chapter 2. Modeling the Processes of Electric Power System Grid Devel- opment~~~�~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~� ~.6 2.1. Ca.lculating Temporary Connections during the Selection of So- lutions in Electric Power System Gr3d Development 16 2.2. Approxima.te Methods for Calculating Tempora.ry Connoctions during the Selection of Solutions for Electric Power System Grid Devel-. opment~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~��~~~~� 24 2~3~ Conclusion.~�~~��~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~��~� 32 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY . APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - Chapter 3. 1?Iaking Electric Poxer Systems Eq,uivalent during Grid Deve- lopment Resea.rche~~~~~~~~~~~~~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~s~~~~~~~� 3J 3�1. Influence of Spatial Connections during the Selection of Solu- tions for Grid Dev~elopment in an Electric Power Sy~stem.........., 35 3,2. Compositi,on of an Equiva.lent Accounting Circuit of a System = with the Power Overcurrent Determination Method ~~~2p 3~3� Conclusion.~~~~~��~~~~~��~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~� 'iV Chapter 4. An ~~.'valuation of Optimiza.tion Results during the Use of Rough Initial Da.ta.........o 51 4.1. Specifi~ Function Errors in the Tasks of Optimizing the Devel- opment of Electric Power System Grids ji 4.2. Range of Equally Economic Solutions in the Tasks of Optimizing +!-,a Development of Elec~ric Power System Grids 58 '4'~3� Conclusion~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~�� 6~. Chapter 5. The Solution of Optimiza.tion Tasks in the Development of"I~arge ' Dimension Grids by the Iterative DIethod 6~ 5.1. The Iterative Sea.rch for Solutions in Developing Electric Power System Grids 64 5.2. An F~ca.mple of the Rea.lization of an Iterative Seaxch for Solu- tions in Developing Electric Power System Grids 68 5~3� Conclusion~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~� 77 5ection 2. Methods for Determining Power Flows in Grid Development Op- timization ModeYs ~ Chapter 6. Power Flow Model in Electric Power System Grids 81 6.1. Features of Modeling Power Flows in Grid Development Optim- iza.tion Tasks 81 6.2. System of Junction Potential Equations Conforming to the Tasks of Optimizing Grid Development 84 Chaptey ''j. MPthods for Solvir.g Junction Potential Equation Sets.......... 92 ?�1. Relaxation Method for Calculating Junction Potentials............ 92 7~2. Circuit Transformations during the Calculation of Junction Potentials 103 Chapter 8. A Power Flow M~del for Circuits without a Ba.se Junction....... 107 8.1. The Influence of Base Junctior. Loca.tion on Quick Action.......... 107 8.2. A Method for Calculating Poxer Flow Distribution in Circuits W~~'lOLlt R ~8@ Junction.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~��~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~� 8.3. The Convergence of the Iterative Process on the Change of Power � Imbalances in a Grid 117 Chapter 9. Prohlems of Realizing a Method for Cal~ulating Power Flows in Optimization Mathematica.l Models 127 9.1. The Acceleration Coefficient of the Iterative Process for Ca.l- culating Power Flows...~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~� 127 9.2. Computing Chara.cteristics of a Method for Ca.lculating Power Flows 130 9�3� The Selection of the Accuracy of Calculations of Power Flow Dis- tribution during the Optimization of Electrical Grid Development, 133 6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 FOR OFF'ICIAL USE ONLY _ Chapter 10. Methods for Estimatir.g PoKer Flox Changes in an Electrical Grid 138 10.1. The Task of Selecting Concurrentahle Grid Cir~uitse........... 138 10.2. The Use of the Reciprocity Theozem When Estimating Poxer Flox Changes in a Grid 139 10.3. Algorithms for Selecting Gri~l Circuits Based on a.n Estimate of - the Change in its Charge durir~ the Addition of Nex Netxorks.. 1~I~9 Sec~:ion 3. Dyna.mic Met,hods for Optimizing the Devslopa?$nt of Electric Power System Grids - Chap�ter 11. The Dynamic Ta.sk of Optimizing the Development of an Elec- tric Poxar System Grid 157 il.l. Formulatiaig the Task of Optimizing the Development of Elec- - 1`.ric Poxer System Grids 157 11.2. M,odeling the Optimization Area 162 ~ 11.3� 7.'he 5tructure of Data.-Computing Systems Intended for Ana.lyzing 'the Development of Electric Poxer System Grids 169 _ Chapter 12. A Method of Optimum Starting Conditions 175 12.~_. The Use of the Dynamic Programming Method in Grid Develop- ment Optimization Tasks 175 12.2. A Recurrent Expression for Determining Optimum Starting Con- ditions ...............................................o....... 177 12.3. Principles for Realizing the Method of Optimal Sta.rting Con- ditions OY1 $ Computer~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~� 1~2 Chapter 13. Methods for Searching for Optimal Sta.rting Conditions...... 189 13.1. The Task of Searching for Optimal Starting Conditions......... 189 13.2. A Method of Searching for ~oundaxy Set Conditions 197 13.3. Realizing a Method for Searching for Boundary Set Conditions.. 207 13.4. A Gradient Method of Searching for Optimwn Starting Conditions 212 Chapter 14. Some SFecial Methods for Optimizing the Development of ' Electric Power System Grids... 223 14.1. P.ough Methods for Optimizing Grid Development 223 14.2. Methods for Solving Multi-Mode Tasks of OptimiZing the Devel- opment of Electric Power System Grids 231 Appendix 1. Algorithms for Computing Potentials in Junctions of an E1- ectrical Grid with the Partial Exclusion of Unknowns....... 239 Appendix 2. An Algorithm for Forming a I,arge Number of Optimal Start- ing Conditions 241 Appendix 3. An Algorithm for Forming Conditions 243 Bibliography 24~6 Subject Index 252 - COPYRIGHT~ Isdatel'stvo "Zinatne", 19~9 _ 8524 ~ C30~ 1$22/205 7 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 FUR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FUELS UDC 553.98:550.812"1976-1985" RECENT RESULTS, FUTURE TASKS OF OIL, G~S EXPLORATION TOLD ~ Moscow GEOLOGIYA NEFTI I GAZA in Russian No 6, Jun 81 pp'1-7 ~ [Article by V. V. Semenovich (USSR Mingeo [Ministry of Geology]): "The Main . Results of Prospecting and Exploration for Oil and Gas During the lOth Five-Year Plan and Tasks for 1981-1985"] . [Text] The development of the fuel and power branch of the national economy is constantly the center of attention of the party and the government. The main tasks for prospecting and exploration for oil ancl gas are defined accurately in the deci- sions of CPSU congresses and in many directives. Their realization has been crowned by the creation of a high-capacity oil and gas recovery industry which now provides two-thirds of the country's fuel and power balance. Its further develop- ment was defined in "The Main Directions for Economic and Social Development of the USSR During 1981-1985 and During the Period up to 1990," which was confirmed by the 26th CPSU Congress. Comrade L. I. Brezhnev, in the Accountability Report of the CPSU Central Committee to the 26th party congress, in speaking about the neces- sity to develop heavy industry, emphasized the primary importance of the fuel and power branch. In executing party and government decisions about creating a mineral raw-materials base for the recovery of oil and gas, i7SSR Mingeo's oil-and-gas-exploration and ~ geophysical organizations have been promoting work in all the country's promising , oil and gas bearing provinces. Broad coverage of.large regions by prospecting has - led to the discovery of new oil and gas areas, regions and fields in West Siberia, the European part of the USSR, Central Asia and West Kazakhstan. On the basis of explored reserves, the largest recovery complexes have been created in Tywnenskaya and Orenburgskaya oblasts, the Komi ASSR,and the Dnepr-Donets de- pression, at Mangyshlak, and in West Uzbekistan and East Turkmenia. In 20 years the country's recovery of oil has risen 3.6-fold, natural gas 8-fold. 'The Soviet ' Union has now reached first place in the world in recovery of oil and gas conden- sate, second place in gas recovery. Geological exploration in 1976-1980 was targeted at speeding up the prospecting and exploration of new oil, gas and gas-condensate fields primarily in the Middle Ob' region, the North of Tyumenskaya Oblast, West Siberia, the Yakutskaya ASSR, the North of the country's European portion, and the Caspian depression. Much work was done in Central Asia. ~ 8 ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - In West Siberia prospecting continued over a broad front, together with explora- tion and preparation for development of fields that had been discovered. The exe- cution of a set of organizational measures enabled drilling volume to be greatly increased here in recent years. In 1980 Glavtyumen'geologiya [Mair~ Administration for Geological Exploration in Tyumenskaya Oblast] associations drilled more than a million meters of exploratory hole--twice as much as in 1975. As a result of the work performed, it was established that Jurassic sediments in the eastern part of the lowland--in the Krasnosel'kup region--bear oil and gas, and new data was obtained about the presence of oil in Jurassic rocks at the Novyy Port field. Together with previous discoveries of oil in Jurassic deposits in the Kras- nolepinskiy area at the Gubkin field and in the Middle Ob', this testifies to the regional nature of the presence of oil and gas in West Siberia's Jurassic sedi- ments. New data was obtained about the presence of oil and gas of the Bazhenovskiy suite at Salym. On the Yamal Peninsula oil deposits were discovered at the Bova- nenkovskoye field. Prospecting drilling in L�ower Cretaceou~ sediments at the Zapolyarnoye, Yamburg and other fields of the Tyumen' North indicated the gresence� of highly productive gas-condensate deposits. The regional nature of the presence of oil in the lensing-out zone of the Lower Cretaceous reservoirs r~,ceived further confirmation. Work done during the lOth Five-Year Plan confirmed the correctness of the guidance ,in prospecting and exploring for deposits in this most import- ant oil and gas region of the country. In the Timan-Pechora province, the gas-bearing region close to Nar'yan-Mar, which covers the northern portions of the Kolva, Shapkino-Yuryakha and Laya arches, was prepared for development. The exploration of a number of gas deposits in the Per- _ mian-Carboniferous sediments was completed. Prospecting for deposits in the deeper portions of the profile is being conducted. The Varandey-Adz'va oil-bearing zone in the eastern part of the Nenetskiy Autonomous Okrug was discovered. Here a broad strati~raphic interval of productive deposits--from th~ Triassic to the Lower De- vonian--was noted. The regional nature of the presence of gas iri the Kos'yu-Rogov- _ skaya depression was established. In evaluating the results of work in the Timan-Pechora province, it should be em- phasized that in recent years the stratigraphic interval of productivity has been greatly enlarged through discoveries of Triassic deposits in the northern regions and Lower Devonian and Silurian deposits in the Izhma-Pechora and Khoreyverskaya depressions, at the Kolva arch, and in other regions. Deposits in sedimentary for- mations of the Lower Devonian, Ordovician and Silurian are associated with carbona- ceous reservoirs; in some cases, apparently~these are traps in buried reefs. One of the important results of the lOth Five-Year Plan was establishment of the regional nature of the presence of oil and gas in the Lower Permian-Carboniferous sediments of peripheral parts of the Caspian lowland. In the southwest the Astra- khan gas-condensate field was discovered, on the basis of which an industrial clus- ~er should be created, in accordance with "The Main Directions for the Economic and Social Development of the USSR During 1981-1985 and During the Period up to 1990." ~n the northeastern part of the lovrland, the KaY~achaganak gas-condensate field was discovered, and in the east--the Zhanazhol oil and gas field and new deposits based upon the Kenkiyak oilfield. Gas and oil fields were also discovered in other parts of the near side of the Caspian depression zone. All these are associated with carbonaceous reservoirs. Their gas contains hydrogen sulfide and carbonic acid, the gas of the Astrakhan field containing up to 25 percent hydrogen sulfide 9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/49: CIA-RDP82-00850R040400050008-4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY and more than 20 percent carbonic acid, which creates serious difficulties in the sinking of wells and in sampling them. On the southern flank of the Caspian de- pression, an oil-bearing region on the Buzachi Peninsula, with deposits in Lower Cretaceous and Jurassic sediments, have been explored and prepared for development. In recent years the amount of regional geological and geophysical research has in- creased in East Siberia, and the presence of gas in industrial quanti.ties in Lower Paleozoic and Precambrian rocks has been established at the Vanavara and Kamovskiy uplifts of Krasnoyarskiy Kray. Gusher flows of oil and gas have been obtained a~ a number of areas of the Nepa anticline in Irkutskaya Oblast. In the Y~kutskaya ASSR the exploration of gas-condensate fields in the Vilyi:~~ syne- clise has been completed. In southwestern Yakutskaya ASSR, exploration of the Mid- dle Botuob', Upper Vilyuchansk, Vilyuy-Dzherba and other fields of the Botuob'� oil and gas bearing region continues�. The industrial presence of oil has been established for the Lower Paleozoic and Precambrian sediments at the Middle Botuob' field. Established reserves in Central Asia have been increased significantly. A most im- portant result of operations was the discovery and exploration of the Daulet- abad-Donmez gas field in southeastern Turkmenia. This is the largest field in Central Asia. It will enable gas recovery in the republic to be brought up to 81-83 billion cubic meters, as called for by "The Main Directions for the Economic and Social Development of the USSR During 1981-1985 and During the Period up to 1990." In Western Uzbekistan several gas fields~were discovered and are being ex- plored. The gas field of Shurtan, which supplies fuel to the Syr-Dar'inskaya GRES, has been turned over for devel4pment. ~ Thus, in some oil and gas bearing provinces basically new results were obtained, oil and gas fields were discovered, and promising individual stratigraphic com- - plexes were discovered or enlar~~d. The mineral raw-materials base of the coun- try's fuel and power complex was greatly strengthened, and the prerequisites were created for developing it aand also for increasing UV [hydrocarbon] reserves further. New areas for prospecting, which will enable the conquest of new regions and litho- logico-stratigraphic complexes (Lower Carboniferous-Devonian of the Dnepr-Pripyat' NGP [oil and gas province], the subsalt complexes of the Caspian NGP, the Locver De- vonian-Ordovician complex of the Ti~an-Pechora NGP, the reefogenic Jurassic complex of the Amu-Dar'ya NGP and others) have been defined in accordance with the re- sults of regional geological and geophysical operations. Regional research in East Siberia, where the structure~of the Eocambrian-Lower Paleozoic complex was studied, ~ proved to be fruitful. In West Siberia the structure of the Jurassic has been re- fined and the first information about regional tectonics of the Triassic and more ancient sediments of the northern regions has been obtained. The results of the regional studies were used in making a quantitative assessment of the prospects for the USSR's oil and gas resources as of 1 January 1979. They enabled the extent to which many territories have been studied to be raised, and up to 460 structures to be introduced annually into the inventory of entities dis- covered--an appreciable backlog of started work awaiting later detailed preparation. io FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407102/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400450008-4 Space photography has begun to be used in unisan with regional studies. The quali- ty of the scientific processing and generalization of the data from regional work has been raised, enabling regional maps for the whole territory of the USSR to be created, using also the results of other stages of the work. ~ 1'he successes of prospecting and exploration in West Siberia, the Timan-Pechora province and other regions of the country were made possible to a great extent by developments in dri~ling operations and radical augmentation of the geophysical services with equipment and standard practices. The amount of deep exploratory drilling carried out by the USSR Mingeo system in 1976-1980 was 25 percent higher than in 1971-1975. Thanks to the daily assistance of the party and the government, the labor activity of the collectives of geological explorers, and the crganizing i~rork that was done,in 1980 drilling exceeded the 1975 level 1.8-fold in West Si- beria (1.9-fold in Glavtyumen'geologiya), 2.5-fold in Arkhangel'skgeologiya [Arkhangel'sk Geological Exploration Association], 1.5-fold in Ukhtageologiya [Ukhta Geological Exploration Association], 2.5-fold in the Turkmen SSR Geological - Administration, and so on. The operating base for deep exploratory dril.ling has been greatly strengthened. During the lOth Five-Year Plan the amount of grants for geological prospecting, primarily for geophysical work, rose substantially. The basic method for deep un- _ derground mapping--seismic exploration--has been augmented radically as to equip- ment and standard practices. At present, practically all the work by reflected waves is being done by the OGT [common depth point] method, which permits mapping quality and the depth and detail thereof to be improved considerably. The .intro- duction of OGT has created the prerequisites for solving such complicated tasks as discovering reefs and tracing lensing-out zones, surfaces of stratigraphic uncon- formities, and, in some cases, gas-water contacts in massive-type deposits. Defi- nite successes have also been registered in solving problems of forecasting depos- its by geophysical and geochemical methods (the direct methods for prospecting for deposits). However, the labor-intensiveness of seismic exploration has risen con- siderably, because of which the physieal volume has not increased for a long time. As a consequence, the area of prepared structures is not increasing. Although the number of structures prepared in 1976-1980 rose by 13 percent over the Ninth Five-Year Plan, their area was 4 percent less. In some regions a tense situation has prevailed with respect to providing prospecting drilling with an inventory of prepared sites. The 26th CPSU Congress set the directions and main tasks for further development of the country's fuel and power complex and its mineral raw-materials base. Guided by "The Main Directions for the Economic and Social Development of the USSR During 1981-1985 and During the Period up to 1990," which the 26th CPSU Congress con- firmed, and proceeding from 1976-1980 work results and a quantitative assessment of the prospects of the oil and gas hearing regions and of ~he various strati- graphic complexes, USSR Mingeo plans to intensify geological exploration in West and East Siberia, the European portion of the USSR, Central Asia, and the Kazakh SSR with the following main tasks. West Siberia A continuation of exploration in the Middle Ob' district and the northern regions of Tyumenskaya Oblast, with a view to further increasing oil reserves; 11 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY further integrated study of whether the Bazhenovskiy suite bears oil and the de- vclopment of inethods for assessing the reserves in its deposits; the preparation of reserves of condensate-containing gas in the Neocomian complex of the northern regions of Tyumenskaya Oblast; an evaluation of the presence of oil in the Jurassic sediments of the Krasnolen- insk, Krasnosel'kup, Yaraal and other regions; and - a continuation of prospecting for deposits in lithological traps of ~he lensing-out zone of the Neocomian formations. The Timan-Pechora Province Prospecting and exploration for oil and gas fields in the Nenetskiy Autonomous Okrug of Arkhangel'skaya Oblast,in the northern portion of the Kolva arch and in the Laya and Shapkino-Yur'yakh arches; prospecting and exploration of oilfields in the Varandey-Alz'va zone; an evaluation of gas deposits discovered in the Koz'yu-Rogovskaya depression; prospecting and development of oilfields in the southern part of the Izhma-Pechora region and gasfields in the northern~part of the Upper Pechora depression; and prospecting for oil and gas deposits in the Khoreyverskaya depression. The Urals -Volga Region A continuation of exploration of the Astrakhan' gas-condensate field; prospecting for oil and gas deposits in the southern portion of Orenburgskaya Oblast; and prospecting and explora~ion of oilfields in Udmurtia and U1'yanovskaya and Saratov- skaya oblasts. Central Asia A continuation of exploration and evaluati~n of reserves of the Dauletabad-Donmez gas field; prospecting for gas fields in East Turkmenia; and prospecting and exploration for gas deposits in West Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan Evaluation of the presence of gas at the Karachaganak field; completion of exploration of the Zhanazhol oil and gas field; and 12 ' ~OR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007102/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 FOR QFF[CIAL USE ONLY prospecting for oil and gas fields in the subsalt sediments of the eastern portion of the Caspian depression. East Siberia ~ A continuation of integrated regional operations on the Siberian platform; discovery of the zone of oil and gas accumulations in the southern portion of the Tungusska syneclise, at the Nepa-Botuob' anteclise, in the Yenisey-Khatanga trough, and in other regions; and prospecting for and exploration of oil and gas fields and the preparation of oil reserves. In order to solve the tasks set for growth of oil and gas reser~es during 1981-1985 and to create a backlog of prospecting starts for 1986-1990, it will be necessary, according to studies that have been made, based upon analysis of the degree of ex- ploration accomplished and the effectiveness of deep exploratory drilling in the country and in various regions of it, to increase drilling 1.5-fold to 1.6-fold and appropriations for geological prospecting 1.7-fold (which includes a 1.8-fold in- crease in geophysical prospecting) throughout the USSR Mingeo system during~the 11th Five-Year Plan. In so doing, the~amount of drilling is to increase 2.1-fold in West Siberia, 2.4-fold in East Siberia, 1.8-fold in the European North, 1.3-fold in the Urals-Volga region, 1.3-fold in Central Asia and 1.2-fold in Kazakhstan. - A sharp increase in geological exploration in 1981-1985 has been necessitated by a reduction in the growth of reserves per 1 meter of drilling, as a result of moving to regions that have been poorly studied and are complex in ~tructure, growth in the depth of prospecting and exploration holes, and the increased complexity of the fields that have been discovered, especially fields associated with carbona- ceous reservoirs. A large amount of drilling will be aimed at medium-size and small fields and structures, and also at extremely labor-intensive prospecting for the complicated types of deposits that are confined to lines of lensing-out and stratigraphic shielding by reef massifs and deeplying horizons. An increase in the amount of geological prospecting, primarily of seismic explora- tion, will enable 29 percent more structures to be prepared than during the lOth Five-Year Plan; the area of prepared structures will increase by 15 percent. How- ever, as is evident from the figures cited, the necessary balance between the amounts of deep exploratory drilling and the preparation of structures still will not be achieved during the 11th Five-Year Plan, and the strain in providing prospecting drilling with prepared structures will persist. Steps must be taken to alleviate thisimbalance, not only by increasing the physical amount of seismic prospecting but also by realizing other possibilities. One of the measures in this area is improvement of the quality of preparation of the structures. The precision of the structures, particularly of the surface of t;he subsalt sediments of buried reefs, zones of lensing-out and nonconformities, must be increased, and the depth of reliable mapping must be brought down to at least 5.5 kilometers, and in some regions (the Dnepr-Donets and Kos'yu-Rogovskaya depressions, the Kopetdag trough, and others) down to 6 kilometers. 13 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY It is necessary to organize more widely the review and analysis of the papers of preceding years on the basis of a detailed processing of them, taking into account the accumulated data on drilling, seismic exploration and new ideas about the structure and the material composition of the profile. There are many examples where repeated analysis of data will enable a new approach to an evaluation of the prospects that various structures or whole regions will be oil or gas bearir.g. An important reserve for increasing the inventory of promising areas is the further development and improvement of geophysical and geochemical methods for forecasting the presence of oil and gas--the singling out of "anomalies of type deposit," based upon use of a set of inethods and on joint interpretation of the results of their use. The tasks that ensue from "The Main Directions for the Economic and Social Develop- ment of the USSR During 1981-1985 and During the Period up to 1990," are vast and very complex. For them to be solved effectively, institutes of the oil and gas geology specialty must concentrate their efforts on the top basic and applied prob- lems. As Comrade L. I. Brezhnev indicated in the CPSU Central Committee Accounta- bi~.ity Report to the 26th CPSU Con~r�ess, the conditions under which the national economy will be developed during the 1980's make the acceleration of scientific and technical progress still more urgent. The central problem, which is included in the State Plan for the Economic and So- cial Development of the USSR During 1981-1985, is determination of the most effec- tive areas for prospecting and exploring for oil~and gas in the USSR and the eco- nomical and geological substantiation of these operations, based upon a quantita- tive evaluation of the prospects for the presence of oil and gas. This problem is being developed, proceeding from an integrated analysis of the results of prospecting and ex~loration by institutes of USSR Mingeo, Minnefteprom [Ministry . of Petroleum Industry] and Mingazprom [Ministry of Gas Industry], with the parti- cipation of producing organizations, as a scientific basis for five year plans for each pentad. The effectiveness of prospecting and exploration depends largely upon the work methods used. Irnprovement thereof at all stages occupies an ever greater place in the research of USSR Mingeo organizations, which covers a large number of questions: the rational division of prospecting and exploration into stages, standard prac- tices for local prognoses on the presence of oil and gas,.standard practices for geophysical operations (the various methods, their integration, the processing and interpretation of data, and so on), standard practices for prospecting and explora- tory drilling, and other questions. Nuclear and other methods, founded upon the achievements of science, are being introduced into practice increasingly widely. Recently carbonaceous complexes have been covered inereasingly widely by explora- tion. Fields associated with them have been discovered in the Caspian depression and in West Uzbekistan; it has been established that reefogenic complexes in the Timan-Pechora province and in other areas are oil and gas bearing. However, the finding of these fields has brought up some complicated problems, since hydrogen sulfide and carbonic acid are usually contained there, so corrosion-proof equipment and apparatus, inhibitors, and the development of a technology for drilling in and for testing the formations are required. The study and development of deposits not of ordinary phase composition require a new approach. Since the most widely dis- tributed types of trap in carbonaceous complexes are buried reefs of various ages-- from Silurian to Upper Jurassic, mapping methods, forecasting of the location, and 1!~ FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004400050008-4 other questions associated with prospecting for them are being developed widely. Questions of the lithogenesis of the carbonaceous complexes, the forming of reser- voirs in them, the occurrence of hydrocarbons and the forming of their accwnula- tions are acquiring major significance. On the whole, the occurrence of oil and gas in the carbonaceous complexes is a problem that is complicated, both scientifi- cally and practically, and requires comprehensive study on the baS1S of a systems approach. Another problem is evaluation of the prospects that zones of litholog~cal substitu- tion in terrigenous reservoirs are oil and gas bearing. Fields in West Siberia,the Timan-Pechora province, and a number of other regions contain such zones. This problem includes a large number of questions of paleogeograph,y, lithogenesis, standard prognostic practices, mapping, and so on. Using new methods of paleogeo- morphological analysis and seismic prospecting, we can discover large fields and whole zones of them that are associated with lithological shielding. East Siberia is a vast territory. The prospect that it bears oil and gas has been studied extremely poorly. How�ver, the work done here, in confirming "the : great promise of the vast region between the Lena and the Yenisey, testify at the same time to the complexity of conducting prospecting and exploration within its borders. The profile here is extrem~ely difficult for geophysical operations; per- mafrost rocks cover an enormous expanse and are spread to a depth of more than 1 kilometer. The nature of the reservoirs and traps is very complicated. This region needs special methods for field study and processing of data for 'che drill- ing in and testing of formations, and new forms of work organization. An important problem is evaluation of the extent to which the Bazhenkov suite in West Siberia bsars oil and gas. In this suite, which is regionally bitwninous over an immense area, industrial-size deposits of oil have already been established. However, the specifics of its structure and the extent of thP presence of oil require the solution of a large number of complicated questions. Primarily, ques- tions of evaluating the capacity and filtration characteristics, the thickness of the productive parts of the cross-section, and substantiation of the hydrodynamic characteristics of the deposits, which are necessary for reliable estimation of the total and the recoverable reserves of oil, for working out an optimal technology - for the drilling in of the formation and stimulation of the inflow, and so on, should be solved. It is necessary to develop progressive forms of geophysical and geochemical i~e-~ search at a more rapid pace, t;o use the potential of high-altitude aeronautical and space methods more widely, to develop and use m~~thods for the accelerated geologi- , cal and economical evaluation of fields, to provide for f~s~ther reequipping of geological exploration organizations, and to arrange for them to be supplied with highly effective equipment, devices and transport means. "The Main Directions for the Economic a.nd Social Development of the USSR During 1981-1985 and During the Period up to 1990," which was confirmed by the 26th CPSU Congress, sets before the geological exploration activity complicated and re- sponsible tasks on preparing reserves of oil, gas and gas condensate that will in- sure the contemplated level of development of the recovery thereof, and on creat- ing a backlog of prospecting starts for the long term. Their realization requires purposeful, strenuous work by production and scientific collectives, the close integration of science and production, and the acceleration in every way possible of the pace of scientific and technical progress in the industry. COPYRIGHT: Izdatel'stvo "Nedra", Geologiya nefti i gaza", 1981 CS009 1822/202 ~'OR OFFdCtAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONI.Y FUELS , MELIK-PASHAYEV'S BOOK ABOUT OILFIELD OPERATIONS REVIEWED BY CHOLOVSKIY Moscow GEOLOGIYA NEFTI I GAZA in Russian No 6, Jun 81 pp 60-62 [Review by I. P. Cholovskiy of MINKhiGP [Moscow Petrochemical and Gas~-Industry In- stitute imeni Academik I. M. Gubkin] of the book, "Geologiya, razvedka i razrabotka neftyanykh mestorozhdeniy" [The Geology, Exploratior~ and Development of Oilfields] by V. S. Melik-Pashayev, Moscow, Nedra, 1980] [Text] One of the most important national economic tasks, which i.s constantly at the center of attention of the party and the government, is that of ineeting the country's requirements for oil. This task, which is extremely complex and involves many plans, is made up of a multitude of interconnected specific questions that touch on the preparation of the raw-materials base, rational realization of re- serves of this most valuable mineral, and insuring more complete extraction of it from the ground. Of paramount importance among these questions are the geological and oilfield-geology questions, with success in carrying out the task as a whole depending upon the completeness of their solution. ~ Of great interest, therefore, is a recently published new book by a major special- ~ ist in the area of oil geology, V. S. Melik-Pashayev. It examines a large number - of problems of on-site geological study of oilfields at the stages of explcra- tion, preparation for development, and the industrial mastery thereof. The first chapter of the book is decticated exclusively to an important problem-- . that of raising the effectiveness of geological exploration for oil. The basic principles for choosing the various elements of systems for exploring for oilfields anc3, in particular, of such an important element as the exploration target, have been laid down here on the foundation of the richest existing experience. The principles of the approach to the substantiation of exploration targets as a func- tion of the geological peculiarities of the profile, and also the procedure (or sequence) for introducing them into exploration, are given in the examples of spe- cific fields in various areas, including the Apsheron Peninsula, the Nizhnevartovsk arch in West Siberia, a number of areas of the Urals-Volga region, and others. Also interesting is a group of questions that are examined, which touch upon the drilling in and testing of promising productive horizons at the prospecting and ex- ploratory stages. Cases are recalled from which it follows that incomplete use of information obtained when exploratory wells are drilled can lead to a bypassing of industrially valuable deposits, which leads to a reduction in prospecting and exploration effectiveness. 16 . , APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPR~VED F~R RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 ~ FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY The important role of good quality in conducting test operations of exploratory holes for purposes of evaluating reliably the industrial worth of discovered oil deposits was indicated. The author pays great attention to standard practices in using production wells to refine exploration data and in making a detailed study of the structure of the oil deposits. Using concrete examples, the geological conditions and the purposes ~ for which the most effective use can be made of a pilot development well are indi- ~ cated. In particular, it is recommended that pilot wells be used to explore struc- ~ tures that are small or complicated in structure, to lend precision to poorly pro- ductive horizons that are situated above or below the main deposit, to obtain data - necessary for the planning of drilling, and so on. The role of the establishment of first-priority industrial-test sections when preparing large oilfields for assimilation was indicated. ' Oil deposits that are discovered on a continental shelf are playing an increasingly great role in world practice today. T~ierefore, the chapters of the book that pre- sent the experience that our country has gained in exploring and developing off- shore oil deposits are of undoubted interest, and a description of the general ; status of the problem in the world is given. Among the very specific and interesting phenomena which oil geologists encounter is , anomalously high fo~~mation pressure (AVPD). Whole regions and stratigraphic com- plexes have been found for which a considerable difference in formation pressure is ~ characteristic. Back in 1947 V. S. Melik-Pashayev published a report about the connection of AVPD with the mud wlcanism of the Apsheron Peninsula. On the ~aasis of factual material and sources from the litei�ature, the book performs a deep anal- ysis of this phenomenon, a large number of the steps of the geological sequence that leads to its formation in oil deposits is indicated, and an explanation is given of why the appearance of AVPD at great depths can be of a regional nature and cover vast areas of oil and gas bear.ing basins. : A knowledge of the nature of~AVPD has not only theoretical but also practical sig- nificance, particularly for forecasting the ghase state of the hydrocarbons at great depths, for high-quality planning of the development of oil deposits.that have AVPD, fo.r organizing accidentfree sinking of deep wells, and so on. - A separate chapter is dedicated to the extremely important and complex ques�~ion of substantiating the selection of targets for production. Based upon theoret,~.cal premises and experience in develcping domestic and foreign fields with differen~~ physical-geology conditions, the author has formulated the basic principles for se- lecting production targets in conformity with modern systems for developing oilfields. Among the basic factors that should be considered in selecting development targets are the hydrodynamic tie of the variaus reservoirs and intercalations, the differ- ence in their reservoir characteristics, their mutual positions in the drill log, with differences in infiltration characteristics, amount of reserves of oil, and so on. The book cites numerous and very bright examples of differences in the approach to selecting production targets for conerete fields o~ Azerbaijan, the Urals-Volga region, West Siberia, Mangyshlak, the ChIASSR [Checheno-Ingush Autonomous SSR], - and other regions. In so doing, it shows cases where a full and correct accounting 17 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY , APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400450008-4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY of all the basic factors enabled the production targets to be adequately substanti- ated, and cases in which inadequate consideration of various factors led to a need to change previously selected targets--to amalgamate them or,on the contrary, to break them up into smaller units, introducing, in this connection, radical changes in the whole system of development. A special chapter publicizes an extremely important question of oilfield geology-- study and evaluation of the geological heterogeneity of productive formations for purposes of developing oilfields. It is perfectly correct here to point out the fact that, although the problem of study of heterogeneity of development targets has been given great attention, as yet no generally accepted criteria for evaluat- ion and uniform standard-practice bases for considering it have been worked out, unlike the case both of estimating oil and gas reserves and of designing the development of oilfields. Right now a large number of indicators, with different notation systems, are being used, the physical essence of the coefficients proposed by various authors often being understood differently. All this tells negatively on the potential for an objective evaluation of the variability of the characteris- tics of productive formationa. The author gives his own formulation, sufficiently precise and all-embracing of the concept of "geologi~al heterogeneity," cites geological-heteroge~eity indicators that have been disseminated most~widely, and states~their physical essence. It is especially emphasized that, in studying the heterogeneity of productive horizons it must be considered that they are often represented as reservoirs of two types, which are characterized by different conditions for working the reserve that they contain and which usually are being movedin the profile and are lying in various combinations. This predeterraines extreme complexity of the structure of the pro- ductive horizons as natural reservoirs and requires careful study and a separate calculation of the oil reserves that are contained in reservoirs of various typ~. In this same chapter certain aspects of an extremely important problem--determina- tion of the lower quality-standardized limit--of the collector rocks are touched on. However, this section is presented too briefly and schematically. Evidently, questions of establishing quality=standardized values for productive formations deserves a more detailed elaboration. Very interesting information and generalizations on it are cited in the chapter, _ "Geological Factors That Occasion Change of Bubble-Point Pressure in Oilfields." The basic factors that determine the consistency of change in bubble-point pres- sure by area and by profile are indicated here in concrete examples of various oil- fields and of whole oil and gas bearing provinces. The differences in the consis- - tencies found for platform-type and geosynclinal areas are indicated. Thus, for gently sloping deposits of the Volga-Urals oil and gas province, a reduc- tion in the bubble-point pressure from the vault to the edge portions is character- istic. At the same time, for deposits of geosynclinal areas with steeply dropping formations and with a large "story" that bears oil and gas (the Sangachaly-Duvan- nyy-more field) an inverse dependence has been established--the bubble-point pres- sure increases with the submergence of the deposit and even exceeds the value of the pressure in the gas cap. It was noted for the first time that in deposits of the lower section of red-rock series of the Kotur-Tepe, Barsa-Gel'mes and Chelken fields in West Turkmenia, which have AVPD, the value of the bubble-point pressure exceeds the hydrostatic pressure. This is explained by submergence of deposits that had been formed at great depths, with additional diffusion of gas in the oil. 18 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004400050008-4 This work also generalizes the data on changes that occur within oil deposits as a result of the influence of various natural and artificial factors on them. Thus, as a result of the pumping of large amounts of cold water in formations, disturb- ance of the thermodyriamic equilibrium can occur, leading to crystallization and precipitation of paraffin, the precipitation of salt, an increase in the oil's vis- cosity, and so on. Conditions favorable for the development of sulfate-reducing bacteria, which cause hydrogen sulfide contamination of the formations, with all its negative consequences, are pointed out. It is shown that the conduct of tech- nological measures with a view to increasing withdrawal by injecting liquefied gases without taking the chemical composition of the oil into account can lead to a drop in the pressure of the asphaltenes and hamper conduct of the process. In focusing attention on these negative phenomena, the author notes correctly that the amount of research on study of the geochemical changes that occur in oil deposits while they are being developed is insignificant and clearly inadequate. In touching upon certain urgent questions of developing oilfields, the author dwells on such questions as geological substantiation of selection of the water- flooding method, meeting well-inventory requirements by drilling doublers, determi- nation of the rational value of the pressure of water injection, the time for starting boosted withdrawal of fluid, and so on. In particular, it is emphasized that, when choosing a waterflooding method, it is always necessary to consider the circumstance that, from ~he geological standpoint, marginal waterflooding, which produces natural conditions for hydrocarbon migration, is more effective for a large number of oil deposits. In touching upon the tendency to increase injection pressure in order to increase the waterflooding coverage of heterogeneous producing formations, the author notes, completely correctly, that exceeding the critical injection value that has been de- termined can lead not to an increase in waterflooding coverage, but, on the con- trary, to a reduction of it, as a result of the forming or the expansion of cracks or an increase in the injectivity of the more permeable intercalations. The con- clusion about the undesirability, for a number of reasons, of boosted withdrawal of fluid at an early stage of development and the high effectiveness of it at basically a later stage is extremely important. Various new methods for stimulating the oil reservoir with a view to increasing withdrawal from the producing formations will receive major development in the near term. These include primarily thermal methods. Therefore, the geological substan- tiation of the criteria of their applicability that is cited in the book is in- teresting. It is recommended that a breakdown be made of all deposits within the borders of the various oil-bearing provinces, as a function of the amount of re- serves, depth of deposition, viscosity of the crude, content of sulfur and other substances, and physical-geology factors, according to the degree of favorability of the various methods, and that introduction of the methods be started when the most favorable effect can be obtained. In evaluating the work as a whole, it should be said that the author has made a sound and interesting generalization, which covers a large group of interrelated questions about the exploration and development of oilfields, including an analysis of the various factors that govern the conditions ~or recovering oil from the ground. The book was written on the basis of the most modern views and notions, using recent theoretical studies and the vastest of experience in the development of oilfields, which covers several decades. All the main conclusions and 19. FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2447/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400454448-4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY principles are fortified and illustrated with concrete examples, oilfields of vari- ous parts of the country being used as such. V. 5. Melik-Pashayev's work is of great interest to the bulk of workers of scien- tific-research organizations and industrial enterprises of the petroleum industry, and also for students of the petroleum specialty. COPYRIGHT: Izdatel'stvo "Nedra", "Geologiya nefti i gaza", 1981 11409 CSO: 1822/202 20 FOR OFFIC[AL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000400050008-4 ~'U~LS UDC 622.276 ~ METHODS FOR ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF OIL RESERVES EXPLAINED Moscow NEFTYANAYA PROMYSHLENNOST'; SERIYA EKONOMIKA in Russian No 5, 1980 pp 2-6 [Article by A. I. Zhechl~ov and N. M. Nikolayevskiy of VNIIneft' [All-Union Scien- tific-Research Institute for Oil and Gas): "Questions of Standard Practices in the Economic Substantiation of the Quality Requirements of Oil Reserves''] : [Text] An economic evaluation of the quality requirements of oil reserves that ~ aims at breaking them down into reserves that � are economically feasible and econom~- cally infeasible should rest upon a determination of the maximum national-economic benefit from the use of these reserves, provided that the fields that enable this benefit to be obtained are worked with advanced technology. The value of the oil reserves, which is computed by means of the indicator of the highest industrywide costs for oil recovery, which is the standard for the maxi- mum permissible expenditures from the national-economic standpoint for growth in oil recovery during the period being examined, is taken as the basic indicator in an economic evaluation of fields of oil reserves. This indicator is established in a centralized procedure as the sole one for the industry, but, as will be shown be- low, in two values. . Let us examine standard-practice questions of determining the indicators for an eco- nomic evaluation of oil reserves. An economic evaluation of reserves of oil and of casing-head ga~, using overall ex~ penditures, is accomplished: In definiiig quality requirements during the estimation of oil reserves and the breakdown thereof into the ecoriomically feasible and infeasible; In the economic substantiation of the final oil-formation productivity; ~ In choosing the sequence of and periods for assimilating fielas and portions there- of while making up detailed tasks for a long-term national economic plan; and In making an economic evaluation of the consequences of the loss of oil reserves during the recovery or refining thereof, in setting technical and economic norms for sizes of losses, and in furnishing economic incentives for achieving optimal oil-formation productivity. 21 FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 FOR OFFfCIAL USE ONLY The indicator of a computed (monetary) evaluation of the oil reserves of a field is equal to the difference between the value of the product being recovered and the ~ total expenditures (operating and capital) on recovery thereof for the whole period of development, taking the time factor into account. The value of the monetary evaluation (R ) is determined in accordance with the standard practice method for the econo~iic evaluation of useful minerals, in ac- cordance with the formula - ~ T Z:-Se , RP 1~ 1+E~~ t ~ 1~ where T is the computed period for evaluation of the field (or portion), which is figured from the year of evaluation (or start of development) to the year of completion of development; Zt is the value of the annual recovery of crude (including casing-head gas and other components), figured in terms of overall expenditures for the t-th year; St is the sum of the future capital and operating expenditures (not counting amortization deductions for renovation) in the t-th year of operation; and eNn is the standard for citing isochronous expenditures and results, which is adopted as 0.08. iNhere the period is of identical duration, discounting under the formula (1 + eMR) is not performed. The indicators of the evaluation are cited for the year for which the evaluation is carried out. When necessary, the interval between the start of the buildup of the oilfi eld facilities and the year of the evaluation is considered. ' It seems to us that the level of highest expenditures for recovering 1 ton of crude should be established in two values: - a) In accordance with the upper limit of highest expenditures (Za)--for determining the moment for completion of the object's full output and the final yield, and, consequently, the boundary of the economically infeasible part of the oil reserves at the given object; and ~ b) In accordance with the lower limit of the highest expenditures (ZH) for the re- covery of i ton of oil--for determining tha boundary between the economically fea- sible and infeasible reserves for new objects ~ which are subject to introduc- tion. The computation of S, with ZN, is rited according to the formula (C + EK), taking into account expenditures for the exploration and recovery of oil for the group of the worst new facilities. The economically infeasible reserves of new. objects that are computed +~o ac- count of the lower limit of highest expenditures (ZH) are named economically infeasible - cate~ory 1 reaerves, which can be introduced into long-term plans for drilling (capital construction) where there is a worsening of conditions in the inventory of new prepared reserves that are being put into operation. Economically infeasi- ble reserves that are computed to take into account the upper limit of highest ex- penditure~ (ZS), are named economically infeasible category 2 reserves, which can ~ be transferred to the feasible portion of the reserves where there is a change in 22 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007102/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 F'OR OFF7CIAL USE ONLY the conditions that determine the le�~el of Z~ (for example, during a rise in world _ prices for oi]J. The indicators for an economic evaluation for future development of a field are computed in two versions. For substantiation of the final formation productivity in formula (1) it is assumed that Z= Zg, and for determination of the economi- cally infeasible category 1 reservestduring introduction of the field or a part thereof, it is assumed that Z- Z. The computations allow establishment of the amounts of recoverable reserves byHyear and over the full period that the reserves _ are worked, the coefficient for final productivity, the total duration of operation of the oilfield, and the year of completion of its production, when Zg - St = 0. It is desirable here to concentrate one's attention on proposals to count as eco- nomically infeasible reserves those reserves for which, during the whole period of , ~heir recovery, the average annual expenditures were equal to or exceeded the standard level of the highest expenditures (maximum permissible expenditure~l. One could concur with this, if the year-by year dynamics of oil recovery by stage of deve].opment were marked by identical productivity and economic characteristics. - When re.covering oil and gas, there is no such uniformity of withdrawal. As is known, withdrawals of oil and gas proceed at high prime cost levels for the recovery of oil during the third and, especially, the fourth stages of development. Therefore, in practice, the method of evaluating the quality requirements of the oil reserves ac;~rding to highest expenditures averaged for the whole period of op- ' eration inevitably leads to a rejection of reserves which were completely profit- able in the first stages of development, thanks to the higher flow rates of wells then than during later stages. Consequently, where there is a sharp change in the dynamics of oil withdrawal in time, an economic assessment of the quality requirement of the reserves made with use of the level of highest expenditures, computed as an average for the whole period of development, is unsound. In order to substantiate the quality requirement of the oil reserves from the eco- nomic standpoint, the limiting minimally permissible starting flow rates of new wells and the final flow rates of old wells are subject to determination. For these purposes, computations of the technological, technical and economic indica- ' tors of the development variant that was adopted for economic evaluation of the reserves are performed prior to achievement of the limiting rate of flow of the object (or well), which corresponds to the level of the upper and lower limits of the highest expenditures that have been approved by MNP [Ministry of Petroleum Industry]. The limiting final flow rate of the well (for oil) during an evaluation of final oil formation productivity, which will permit the borderline between the economi- cally feasible and unfeasible reserves of the objects to be determined, should be computed according to the following formula: 3p-I-3o~H-~-3a ��Qac-~'3n � Qa-~-~cX - . XQ~-F3az ~ Q~ ( 2 ) g~ - Ze 365 Ke ~ 23 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/49: CIA-RDP82-00850R040400050008-4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY wher~c qk is thc; limiting final flow rate of oil from the well, tons per day; 3 are expenditures for the upkeep and operation of well equipment, in- p cluding deductions for capital repair thereof, rubles per well pc~r ycar; are the basic and additional pay and social insurance deductions, rubles 3 oc per well per year; 3~ are the expenditures for energy consumed in extracting the liquid, rubl~s per ton; 3n are the expenditures for enhanced recovery, rubles per cubic meter of water; - ~ are the expenditures for gathering and transporting the oil, rubles per ~ ton of liquid; 3nr are the expenditures for industrial treatment of the oil, rubles per ton of liquid; _ Q~ is the annual recovery of liquid per well, cubic meters; ~!3 is the annual pumping of water, cubic meters (determined in proportion to ~the liquid that one production well needs per year); K3 is the coefficient of well operation; Z~ is the upper limit of highest expenditures per 1 ton of oil, which marks completion of operation of the well; and 365 is the number of days per year. The basis for the limiting minimwn permissible oil recovery from a new well (its daily flow rate),for determining the boundary between economically feasible re- serves and economically infeasible category 1 reserves, which can be loc~ated at sections of a deposit that are not productive enough for introduction into develop- ment in the long-range plan for the period being examined (lensing-out zones, lens- ses, water-oil zones, blind alleys and others) is cited by year for the first 15 years, applying the lower limit of highest expenditures (Z~) that was approved at the time of the evaluation. The computation is made according to the formula for the economic evaluation of economically feasible reserves (rP) that share in the plans for development of the first period (T - 15 years), namely - TmiS rp= ~ (Zx-S~). (3) :=i If, when c~mputing according to formula (3), we find that r'< 0, then drilling of the new well on the given section of the deposit is conside~ed not economically justified and its oil reserves are included in the economically infeasible cate- gory 1 oil reserves. Accordingly, the zone for siting such points for drilling new wells is also deemed economically infeasible (category 1). As an exception, new wells for which the designed flow rates are below the minimum permissible can be drilled, where necessary for the realization of common tasks of the system for ' developing the oilfield (coverage by stimulation, advancement of the 21~ FOR OFFIC[AL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400450008-4 FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY VNK [oil-water contact], the use of casing-head gas resources, monitoring and re- search of the well's functions, and so on). On the basis of primary oilfield data and use of formula (3), it is possible to de- termine the maximum flow rates for new wells that have been sited as a function of the value of St, the only variable in formula (3), since the remaining values of T and ZH are validated and given as industrywide by the appropriate MNP instruc- tions. The value of the sum of capital and current expenditures St depends upon - the geological and technological parameters for developing the field and is comput- ~ ed as the designed effectiveness indicator in accordance with VNIIneft' standard practice, and also by more simplified methods. The basic methodological approaches for determining economically infeasible cate- gory 1 oil reserves, which restrict the drilling of new wells (or sections) by the amount of the limiting (highest) expenditures ZM, which was established for a long- ' term period of development of the industry, and for determiming category 2--with the expenditures Ze, which determine the dates and the end of production of the object (the final oil production), were laid out above. How then is the limiting initial flow rate of a new well to be computed in prac- tice, when the point at which it is sunk is adjacent to a formation zone that is considered economically infeasible? We have proposed two methods for comp.uting the maximum initial rate of flow of the well qN--industrial and regional, which enable a mutual check to be made of the approaches to solving the problem and of the results of the computation. , According to the first method, the maximum initial daily rate of flow of the well qH is determined in accordance with the formula . _ _ _ __9H _ A.+~ ' ZH 365 K~ ~ ( 4 ) where A is the amortization deductions for the balance-sheet cost of the drilling and of the well equipment, in thousands of rubles; and are the other current expenditures, which are a function of the operation of a given well. The remaining notation is the same as for formulas (1-3). We will make a full com- putation of qN in accordance with formula (4) in an arbitrary example with a broad range of possible values of the initial data. Say we are given 10 variants, in which the differences in the balance-sheet cost of the drilling and of the well equipment (K) are in the 1U0,000-600,000 ruble range, which are considered in determining the annual amortization deductions for renova- tion (A) per well that is subject to economic evaluation as to its limiting productivity. For each variant (K), let us take subvariants with respect to the share of cur- rent outlays (H) without amortization in the structure of the operating expendi- tures and also 30-70 percent of all outlays, considering amortization, within a broad range of values of Moreover, it should be brought to attention that 25 ` FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000400050008-4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY over the first 15 years (the amortizatia:i period for the well) the productivity of the well being examined will be reduced annually by the coefficient of the annual reduction in rate of flow Kn, which is arbitrarily taken as 0.9. Since the reduc- tion of the well's rate of flow should be specified for the 15 years (beginnin~ from the second year), then in order to compute the limiting initial rate of flow of the well, taking into account the reduction of its productivity qNAP~I~ , one can adopt Ksn , which marks the average pace of reduction during the period that affects the value of qM. The coefficient Ksh in its turn can be expressed by a reduction ratio equal to 0.531. Then qH�pe" = qx : 0,531. ( 5 ) Formula (5) indicates that the limit of the rate of flow of the new well should be increased in comparison with formula (4) because of the reduction in productivity during the first 15 years of its operation. Thus, computations of qK were conducted for all variants (at the prescribed values ~ for K, A, N and Z), and also for qppPe/4, taking into account the ratio of reduc- tion of well productivity during the period. Charts of the dependence of the lim- iting initial daily flow rates of the well qH~P~ on the balance-sheet cost of.the wells K, and the share of the current outlays for the recovery of oil, not counting . amorization deductions (N), have been constructed in accordance with previously obtained data (figure 1). - - . It is sufficient to compute the values of K y,'"' N~~ . and ~ to find, according to the graph, the ~ 6 ,y,cm.s limiting initial flow rate of crude oil f y;~~ from the well q~~P~~ (figure 1) and thereby y ~ y~ determining the limit of the economically ~ N.,~ infeasible category 1 oil reserves, whose 1 introduction to the drilling-over process ~ ~ during the period being exarained (prior to ~ ~ t.~ .xt~ sr~ .xb the next review of the value ZK) is not desired. Figure 1. Maximimum Initial Flow Let us move over to the regional method of Rate of a Well (qMn as a Function solving the problem. The economic substan- of the Cost of the Well (K) and the tiation for a minimal initial flow rate of Structure of Outlays (N) with Re- a well, when breaking down the field's oil duction of Its Productivity During reserves into economically feasible and the First 15 years. infeasible reserves, is done in this case Key: in accordance with formula (3) in the fol- 1. Maximum initial daily flow rate lowing procedure. For a well that is to of the well, tons per day. be drilled on a section of a specific oil- 2. K, thousands of rubles. field of relatively low productivity, the indicators for the recovery of oil, gas and water by year for the first 15 years are determined. The well's recovery of oil by year is then evaluated according to the highest expenditures (ZM) and it is substantiated according to formula (3). In the matter of capital expenditures, the value of St is determined on the basis of the actual or budget-estimated cost of the drilling and the build-up of facili- ties for the well being operated. An evaluation of current expenditures (not counting amortization of the equipment for renovation) is made by analogy with the 26 FOR OFFICIAL US~ ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007102/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - level of expenditures at an operating oilfield with similar conditions for recover- ing oil or in accordance with confirmed planning and design norms for the region being examined. The amount of the economic benefit obtained from the drilling and operation of wells at the field's poorly productive section that is being ana- , lyzed is determined on the basis of the evaluation that was conducted of annual recovery, in accordance with the highest expenditures by year for 15 years, and of the sum of future capital and operational expenditures. It is desirable to review the dynamics of the accumulation of this benefit from the well's operation accord- ing to the results and to determine the level of limiting initial flow rate of the well which corresponds to the dynamics of increase of the benefit. Figure 2 pre- sents as an example the dynamics of the accwnulated edonomic benefit from opera- tion of the well being analyzed that is 2,5U0 meters deep and is operating on a watez~-drive regime. The dynamics have been constructed to take into account chan- ges in the well�s productivity over 15 years (the annual coefficient of reduction ~ of the flow rate is assumed to be IC~= 0.9). In figure 2, the curve of the dynamics of the ~'7vo. accumulated benefit at a flow rate of 5 tons F so Q'fm/~ per day for a definite year of well operation F o intersects the zero mark on the ordinate and ~-3 ~ 1 /ode~ ~~c~nyomovuv n~~~ thereby takes a positive value. Consequently, ~a-mo ~ drilling a well 2,500 meters deep is desirable ~~=4r/ca~ if its initial flow rate is 5 tons per day. Where the adopted limit of expenditures is z:s (ZH), introducing a well with a flow rate of Figure 2. The Accumulated Economic less than 5 tons per day into operation is genefit from Operating a Well 2,500 undesirable, and the reserves of the section Meters Dee Is the Well's Ini- where it is located should be recognized as p' qM economically infeasible category 1 reserves tial Flow Rate, Tons per Day. prior to an examination of ZN by way of an Key: increase. � 1. Accumulated benefit, thousands of rubles. The construction of curves of this same type 2. Years of operation. for some wells that differ in depth. but are 3. qH = 4 t4ns per day. similar in operating regimes and conditions for further operation will enable a nomogram of minimal permissible initial flow rates of new wells to be made up for a specific region. We have constructed an ex- ample of such a nomogram, based upon data similar to those of figure 2, and it is shown in figure 3. The nomogram makes it possible to solve responsively the prob- lem of categorizing oil reserves of a section as economically feasible or infea- sible category 1 reserves. Of course the construction and use of such nomograttis are limited by the concrete physico-geological, technological and economic factors and operating regimes of the formation (or well). A change in one of these factors - necessitates a systematic revision of the computations in accordance with formula (3). But the principle and method of economic substantiation that we have present- ed are retained. In order to check the results of computation of the limit of the initial flow rate of new wells by the two methods obtained, which define the boundary of economically ,infeasible category 1 reserves, let us compare the data of figures 1 and 2, and the effectiveness data by separate region presented in figure 3. Let us take as the basis for the check the data for the new well 2,50U meters deep, for which the level of the limiting flow rate of 5 tons per day was obtained (see figure 2). 27 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400450008-4 FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY The balance-sheet cost of the drilling and of the ~ ~ equipment for ~:his well is assumed to be a maximum of a~ . 264,000 rubles, which dictates annual amortization de- a~lG ductions in the amount of 17,700 rubles (6.? percent). ~o�oB According to th~ cost calculations for the prime cost � F6 for recovering oil from the given well, we find the ~~4 annual average current outlays by subordinate element ~,~2 (not counting amortization), which was 70 percent of ~~0~ 1~ all the operating values of K= 264,000 rubles, and on the line 70 ercent, which determines the Figure 3. Initial Limit- desired value of q Hn 5.5 tons per day. ing Flow Rate of a Well Thus, the limiting flow rate for the new well under as a Function of Depth the conditions assumed in the example should be not ~Meters). less than 5 tons per day, which is also confirmed by Key: a comparison of the results of computation by the two 1. Limiting initial flow methods. rate~of the well, tons per day. COPYRIGHT: Vsesoyuznyy nauchno-issledovatel'skiy institut organizatsii, uprav- leniya i ekonomiki neftegazovoy promyshlennosti (VNIIOENG), 1580 11,409 , CSO: 8144/1474 28 , APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050008-4 ~ ~ 'IAL USE ONLY FUEL5 UDC 622.276.32 WAYS TO COMPUTE OIL WELL F
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