JPRS ID: 9947 USSR REPORT HUMAN RESOURCES

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Y~OR OI~F'1('IA1. USN: ONI,Y
JPRS L/9947
~ 28 August 1981
f~ ~S R Re ort
p
~ h~IJIVi/~1~~ RESOURCES
(FOUO 5/81)
FBIS FOREIGN BROADCAST INFORMA�TION SER1l~~~w~

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JPRS L/9947
2$ August 1.981
USSR REPORT
HUMAN RESOURCES
(FOUO 5/81)
CONTENTS
LABOR ~
Tajik Population Dynamics Ststistics
(A. Madzhidov; IZVESTIYA AKADEMII NAUK TADZHIKSKOY
SSR OTDELENIYE OBSHCHESTVENNYKH NAUK, Oct-Dec 80) 1
Criteria for Forming, Using Incentive Funde Explored
(A. Akhmeduev; VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, Jun 81) 6
Northern Ob' River Region's Changing Manpower Supply Analyzed
(S. Ye. Mozgalin; IZVESTIYA VSESUYUZNOGO
GEOGRAFICHFSKOGO OBSHCHESTVA, Mar-Apr 81) 16
, _ a - [III - USSR - 38c FOUO]
F~1R (1F'FT!'T.1T . i i,CF (1NLY
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LABOR
TAJIK POPULATION DYNEIMICS STATISTICS
DushaMbe IZVESTIYA AKADEMII NAUK TADZHIKSKOY SSR OTDELENIYE OBSHCHESTVENNYKH NAUK
in Russian No 4, Oct-Dec 80 pp 72-76
[Article by A. Madzhidov, USSR Gosplan Council for the Study of Product3.ve Forces:
"Tajik SSR Population Distribution and Labor Resources llse"]
[Text] Territorial pepulation distribution and l.abor resources use ar~ among the
most important national' economic problei:is and di~cectly influence the rates and pro-
portions of economic development and the basic directions in which the economic ef-
fectiveness of social production is increased.
This problem takes on special significar.ce in 7'ajikistan, where the population incre-
ment is the highest in the country.
Table 1. Dynamics nf USSR and TaSSR Population for 1940-197a (compiled from data in:
"Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR v 1977 g." [USSR National Economy in 1977],
Moscow, "Statistika" Izd-vo, 1978, pp 10-11)
USSR TaSSR
total population including: total population including:
year
(in millions) urban rural (in millions) urban rura
(in percent) (in percent)
1940 194.1 33 67 1.525 19 81
1959 208.8 48 52 1.980 33 67
1970 241.7 56 44 2.899 37 63
1978 260.0 62 38 3.691 35 65
Thus, whereas the 1978 population for the U~SR as a whole was 33.9 percent greater in
1978 than in 1940, it was 142.0 percent greater for Tajikistan. In 1940, the repub-
lic population was 0.~ percent of the national total, in 1959 0.9 percent, in 1970
1.2 percent and in 1978 1.4 percent.
As distinct from other Union republics and regions of the country, both the urban and
rural population arc growing in Tajikistan. From 1940 through 1978, the total repub-
lic population increased 2.3-fold, while the urban populatian increased 4.4-fold and
the rural population increased 1.9-fold.
Tt~e proportion of rural popu?ation in Tajikistan is one of the highest in the country,
65 percent in 1978. From 1440 through 1978, the rural population proportion decreased
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16 percent in the republic and 29.4 percent in the country as a whole (see: "Narod-
noye khozyaystvo SSSR v 1977 g.," Moscow, "Statistika," 1978).
The rapid growth in republic population is to be explained by various factors, pri-
mary among which are demographic features. The main reason for change in natural
population increment as a whole and labor resources in particular is the birth rate.
Whereas an unfavorable demographic situation associated foremost with a significant
lowering of tha birth rate has evolved in the country as a whole, a high birth rate
has been retained in Ta~ikistan. The birth rate per 1,000 people in the republic has
increased from 30,6 in 1940 to 38.2 in 1976, while this indicator decreased from 31.2
to 18.4 in the country as a whole.l
The formation of labor resources depends iargely on the birth rate. The dissimilar
urban and rural able-bodied populations result in considerable measure from the dif-
- ferent birth rates. More than half the total able-bodied population is concentrated
in rural areas, which is one source for the formation of manpower.
The high growth in the Tajik population ~?as facilitated rapid labor resources repro-
duction and has had a large impact on the nature, direction and rates of development
~ of branches of the national economy, on deepening specialization in labor-intensive
branches. All this has necessitated the efficient distribution of the population
within the republic and the planned shifting of labor resources between individual
regions.
Population distribution .and its efficient deployment within our country are determined
by both the geneYal and local specifics of its economic development. Population dis-
tribution depends on many factors, among which natural factors, features of historical
development and socioeconomic conditions are the most important.
Natural conditions are the natural basis for developing production and distributing
population within the country. In Tajikistan, an oasis and mountain type of settle-
ment has evolved under the influence of natural conditions, the rural population ba-
sically being concentrated around water sources, for example. The bulk of the rural
settlements are concentrated in valley regions. Extensive mountain areas are sparsely
settled, however. The population there is scattered.
The territorial distribution of the TaSSR population has its own specific fea~ures
resulting from the l� storical conditions under which the economy was shaped and the
population grew prior to and after the October Revolution. Since the basic occupa-
tion in prerevolutionary Tajikistan was farming, population distribution depended on
sources of water.
With its arid climate, it was proximity to natural and artiiicial water sources that
basically determined population distribution in Tajikistan. Republic population den-
sity can be seen in Table 2(following page).
In connection with the high rates of population growth, republic population density
' has increased significantly faster than for the country as a whole. Whereas national
average population density increased 12.5 percent du:ring 1959-1978, the increase in
Tajikistan was 20 percent.
l. "Narodnoye Ichozyaystvo SSSR za 60.1et" [Sixty Xears of the USSR National Economy],
~to~c~w, "SLat i st i_k~~" Ircl-~~o, 1977, p 72.
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TOR 01~FICfAL USI? ONL~'
Table 2. Dynamics of USSR and TaSSR Population Distribution Change (compiled from
data in: "Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR v 1977 g.," pp 10-11)
USSR TaSSR
total population population total population population
year densit
(in thousandsj density (in thousands) y
1959 208,827 9.3 1,981 13.8
1970 241,720 I0.7 2,899 20.3
1975 253,261 11.4 3,387 23�7
1978 260,040 11.7 3,691 25.8
Tajikistan has its own specific natural and economic features which are manifested
in its geographic position, t!ie natural-econom~c prerequisites for shapi.tig and de--
veloping tlle economy, its s~ructure and uirection, and opportunities for further de-
veloping productive forces. At present, the TaSSR is divided into seven natural-
economic zones: Northern, Zeravshanskiy, Gissarskiy, Vakhshskiy, Kulyabskiy, Garm-
skiy and Gorno-Badakhshanskaya A0.
As a consequence of differences in soil-climate, terrain and other conditions, the
republic population distribution and density is characterized by great unevenness. .
The population is concentrated basically in the valley regions of irrigation farming~
which are distinguished by high economic utilization of the territory, and also in
regions with a high ie~el of development of industrial branches of the national eco-
nomy (see Table 3).
Table 3. Distribution and Density of TaSSR Population by Zone as of 1 January 1978
(table calculated from USSR Central Statistical Administration data)
in percent of population size density
zone all republic in percent of urban rural
territory total republic (percent) (percent)
population
Cissarskiy 8.''~ 29.9 51.8 48.2 92.9
Vakhshskiy 8.~ 18.9 23.1 76.9 61
Kulyabskiy 9.0 11.5 26.1 73.9 33.1
Northern 11.5 27.8 39.4 60.6 62.4
Zeravshanskiy 6.2 4.0 12.2 87.8 16.5
Garmskiy 12.0 2.7 8.0 92.0 5.8
GBAO 45.0 3.3 13.3 86.7 1.2
The most densely populated region of Tajikistan is the Gissarskiy zone. Some 29.9
percent of the republic population is concentrated here, while it contains only 8.3
percent of the republic territory. Average population density in Gissarskiy zone is
92.9 people, 3.6 times more than the republic average. Northern and Vakhskiy zones
are also characterized by relatively high density. For example, 2.3-fold more people
live per square kilometer in Northern zone than the TaSSR average. Thus, 89.7 per-
cent of the Tajilcistan population lives in valley regions comprising 36.5 percent of
the republic territory. Ten percent of the population live in the mountain and foot-
ttill regions (GBAO, Garmskiy and Zeravshanskiy zones), which comprise 63.2 percent of
the total area of Tajikistan.
: 3
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- The distribution of population and labor resources depend direcr.ly on development of
tlie national economy. Spatial development of the economy and the specialization and
di~ersity of regional econamies are determined in considerable measure by the nature
of population and labor resources distribution, by their concentration in various re-
gions.
The primary cause of territorial Ghifts in nopu~ation distribution nationally has
been industrializ2tion of the economy. The development of industrial production is
the economic basis of urbanization.
The proportions of TaSSR urban and rural populations in 1978 were 35 and 65 percenty
- respectively, while nationally they were 62 and 38 percent.i
The republic's urban network is still in the formation stage. The basic category of
cities is small and medium-siz~d (20,000 to 50,000) and urban-type settlements. More
than half the republic urban population lives in such settlements.
According to census results, Tajikistan had 61 urban population centers in 1970 (with
a population of 1,076,700), including two large cities (477,100), seven medium-sized
cities (204,000), nine small c~ties (108,300) and 43 urban-type settlements (257~200).2
Urban settlements are distributed unevenly wichin the republic. Nine of the 18 cit-
ies are in the Northern zone, four are in Gissarskiy zone, and Kulyabskiy zone and the
GBAO each have one city.
Small and medium-sized cities are still characterized by a relatively low level of in-
dustrial development. The predominance of small urban settlements with poorly de-
veloped industry in the regublic restricts opportunities for drawing the unemployed
population ~~ito social product~on. Labor resources are growing here considerably
faster than the number of jobs in industry. In medium-sized and small cities, the
number of branches of industry is limited. In a majority of such cities, there are
only enterprises of light and foo~' industry.
Accelerated economic deveiopment of the republic has led to the formation of indus-
trial centers and to the creation of new cities. Thus, 17 urban-type settlements and
four new cities were created in the TaSSR during 1959-1977; the urban population in-
_ creased 2.1-fold. Changes in the propo~tions between the urban and rural populations
in the republic reflect the level of development of productive forces and the economic
structure in the republic. During 1959-1978, the proportion of the TaSSR rural popu-
lation decreased from 67 to 65 percent. However, the absolute number of rural resi-
dents increased by 1,055,500, while it decreased by 10,618,000 nationally.
The distribution of the TaSSR rural population has its own distinguishing featr~res.
According to census data, the republic had 3,908 rural population centers with a to-
tal. population of 1,822,900 in 1970. The Zargest number of population centers was
accounted for by the groups with 201 to 500 people and 501 to 1,000 people, in which
19.9 and 27.4 percent of the total republic rural population live. Consequently,
"Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR v 1977 g.," p 7.
2. "Itogi Vsesayuznoy perepisi naseleniya SSSR v 1970 g." [1970 USSR A11-Union Cen-
~~us ResultsJ, Vol l, Moscow, "Statistika" Izd-vo, 19%2, p 73.
1~
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- about half the Tajikistan rural population lives in these two groups of settlements.
Population centers with u~ to 200 people are characteristic of the republic. They
comprise 42.9 percent of all rural settlements, althou~h 8.0 percent oi the popula-
tiot? live in them. The groupings of population centers shows that rural settlecr.ents
with up to 200 residents, located basically in the mountain regions, predominate in
the republic. The relatively large population centers are generally concentrated in
the densely-populated valley regions. Harever, here, too, there are relatively numer-
ous villages with large populations.
At pre~ent, small population centers are being consolidated and transformed into ur-
- ban-type settlements, with a view towards improving the living conditiuns of the po-
pu?ation. In 1970, the number of republic rural population centers had decrEased by
962 as compared with 1959.
However, the orocess of concentrating and consolidating republic population centers
~ has occurred very slowly. The most widespread form of settlement continues to be
the small kishlaks, which retards the development of productive forces and delays the
process of concentrating agricultural production.
The main directions of population distribution in Tajikistai.i are determined in large
measure by the utilization ~f broad expanses of mountain and foothill land to increase
the production of valuable agricultural crops such as cottc,n, vegetables, fruit and
grapes, and stockraising output, by the involvement of mineral deposits in economic
circulation, and also be the accelera*ed development of industrial branches, especi-
ally those important to developing cities. Republic population distribution is de-
termined largely by the involvement of rapidly growing labor resources in social pro-
duction. The unevenness in production and population di~tribution within the region
will gradually be overcome in this manner.
In order to increase employment in the small and medium-sized cities and urban-type
settlements, branches of large enterprises should be located there. In order to draw
labor resources into social production, we need to define ways of using them mcre ef-
fectively in various types of urban and rural population centers.
Along with the demographic features noted abvve, the high proportion of those employed
in agriculture testifies to republic reserves for freeing manpower. The devel~pment
- of industry, improvement in the forms of agricultural organization and management,
development of a system of ineasures to reduce the seasonal nature of labor in branches
of the agroindustrial complex and developing the services sphere facilitate reaching
this goal. In this connection, rural populati.on centers are being consolidated by
concentrating small enterprises based on processing agricultural output; rural popu-
lation centers are being transfcrmed into urban settlements.
The development of cities and increasing the rates of urbanization in the republic
are helping to draw the rapidly growing labor resources into social production.
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11052
CSO: 1828 /133
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LABOR
CRITERIA FOR FORMING, USING INCENTIVE FUNDS EXPLORED
Moscow VO~ROSY EKONOMIKI in Russian No 6, Jun 81 pp 41-49
[Article by A. Akhmeduev: "'I'he Material :Lncentive Fund"]
[Text] The 26th CPSU Congress Congress posed the task of continuing the improve-
ment of the material incentive system with regard to the concrete contribution of
each labor collective and individual workman to the result. We believe that the
improvement of the procedure for forming the material incentiv~ fund occupies
an imPortant place in the realization of this task. The strengthening of its
stimulating influence c~ the growth of production demands ~hat the size of this
fund be closely linked to the end results of the activity of associations and
enterprises, to the tautness of their plans, and to the degree of their fulfillment.
The system for forming the material incentive ~und under the 9th and TOth five-year
plans did not secure such dependence in full measure. Thus, the Basic Principles
Governing the Formation and Expenditure of Incentive Funds~`,in fixing the planned
size of the materia~ incentive fund, favored associations and enterprises that
adopted taut plant targets , including targets of improving product quality, that
used productive capital more effectively, that brought capacities and new equipment
up to standard in a shorter period of time, that realized higher growth rates of
labor productivity, etc. However, during the years of the five-year plan, the
planned size of the given fund was determined without regard to the end results of
the activity of economic links, and the level and rate of their growth.
The size of the incentive funds was differentiated primarily by adjusting their
planned size depending on the fulfillment of the annual plan and five-year plan
targets based on fund-forming indicators. However, experience has shown that
such differentiation of payments to the material incentive fund is justified if
its planned size is fixed with due regard to the tautness of five-year plan
indicators. Otherwise, economic links that dispose over production reserves not
' ~tiBasic Principles Govern~ng the Formation and Expenditure of the Material Incentive
Fund and the Fund for Sociocultural Measures and Housing Construction in 1971-1975
(EKONOMICHESKAYA GAZETA, No 23, 1972, pp 15-16); Basic Principles Governing the
Formation and Expenditure of the Material Incentive Fund and the Fund for Socio-
culturzl Measures and Housing Construction in 1976-1980 in Production Associations
(Combines), at Enterprises and in Organizations in Industry Converted to the New
System of Planning and Economic Incentives(EKONOMICHESKAYA GAZETA, No 50, 1976,
pp 11-14).
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considered in the five-year plan will be placed in a more favorable economic
position in that they will have the oppoitunity to significantly increase their
contributions to material incentive funds as a result of the adoption of annual
counter-plans that exceed five-year plan targets, and by surpassing the indicat~rs
of their one-,~ear plans.
All this injected an egalitarian element into the system governing the formation
of the material incentive fund, which did not sufficientlq motivate associations and
= enterprises to adopt and fulfill taut plans. The result was an insufficiently close
relationship between the resources utilized from the material incentive fund and
indicators of the effectiveness of social groducti~n. Between 1971 and 1979,
resources expended from this fund increased 1.7 fold, labor productivity rose
1.5 fold, and the output-capital ratio declined. The material incentive fund
as a whole and the material incentive fund per industrial production worker in
the 9th Five-Year Plan increased at a more rapid rate than output and labor
productivity. iJnder the lOth Five-Year P1an, to the contrary, ~iven a 20 percent
increase in output and a 14 percent increase in labor productivity, the material
incentive fund increased by 12.2 pcrcent and payments from the material incentive
fund per work.er rose by a mere 5 percent".
The establishment of a close relationship between the size of the material incentive
funds and the performance ot associations and enterprises depends first and fore-
most on the improvement of the system underlying the formation of these funds--a
system that is based on the objective evaluation of the performance of an economic
' link and the determination of the reward appr�opriate to this performance.
We believe that the evaluation of the five-year plan of economic links with due
regar~i to the correspondence of plan irdicators to the needs of society and long-
range targets in the economic and sociG'. development of the national economy must
becc~me a necessary element in the system governing the formation of the material.
- incentive f~.~nc~. and the basis for the differentiation of its planned magnitude.
Therefore the establishment of the planned size of the material incentive fund
corresponding to five-year plan indicators with due regard to the degree of satis-
faction of the national economy's requirements and the evaluation of the tautness
of these indicators would be an important direction in improving the system govern-
ing the formation of this fund.
-
The guidelines approved by USSR Gosplan for determining the tautness of p.lans~~~~
call for the evaluation of the 5-year and 1-year plans of associations and
enterprises according to the degree to which the plans conform to (approximate)
normative demands. According to these guidelines, a plan is considered taut when
- it ensures the fulfillment of the established targets and the rational use of
- production capacities and expenditures of material, labor, financial and other
- resources at the normative level. The evaluation of the plan in comparison with
the norm~tive level will Promote the rational use of resources if this level of
indicators is established on the basis of progressive scientifically substantiate3
technico-economic norms. This fundamentally important point is considered in the
ilew document .
~~Czlculated on th~ basis of the statistical yearbook "Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v
1979 4~." [The USSR National Economy in 1979], Izdatel'stvo "Statistika," 1980,
pp ].34, 147, 149, 150, 550.
-~~~See "Sovershenstvovaniye khozyaystvennogo mekhanizma. Sbornik dokumentov"
[Improvin;; the F..conomic Mechznism. Collected Documents], Izdatel'stvo "Pravda,"
.1980, pP 37-39. 7
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H~wever, the principles specified in the Guidelines for Determining the Tautness
of Plans were not fully taken into account in the process of forming incentive
funds under the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. The point is that the planned size of the
material incentive fund under the llth Five-Year Plan is determined on the basis
of norms (differentiated for the various years of the five-year plan) computed on
the basis of fund-forming indicators and the sum of the fund, which are adopted
in calculations of the control figures for the five-year plan~'. The material
incentive fund envisaged in the control figures is corrected degending on the
deviation of fund-forming indicators of draft five-year plans from analagous
indicators in the control figures. When ministrias, sssociations and enterprises
draft a five-year plan whose targets are higher than the control figures, the size
- of the incentive funds is increased and when they draft a five-year plan with lower
targets, the incentive funds are reduced. Thus the level of the f-und-forming
indicators in the five-year plan is evaluated on the basis of their correspondence
to the control figures for the five-year plan.
The tautness of th~ plans is evaluated by comparing their indicators with the
indicators or the control figures and the differentiation of the planned size of
the material incentive fund on this basis is economically substan~tiated if the
control figures take into account the use of resources at the normative level for
all entPrprises, associations and ministries and if there is equal tautness of
indicators corresponding to the control figures. If these conditions are not
observed, economic links will be nlaced in an unequal situation: those that
possess reserves for surpassing control figure targets with regard to the fund-
forming indicators will have a significantly larger planned material incentive
, fund than those that establish taut indicators in the control figures.
In order to assure that all economic links have equal economic conditions for
forming incentive funds, the indicator obtained by comparing draft plans with
the control figures for the five-year plan should be adjusted to take account
of the result of the evaluation of the control figures proper. This means that
the control figures for the five-year plan and draft plans should be evaluated
on the basis of a single criterion. '+7e believe that the comparison of control
figures and draft plans with norms governing the effectiveness of social production
could constitute such a criterion. Their introduction is envisaged in normative .
documents.
In accordance with the decree of the CPSU Central Committee and the USSR Council
of Ministers"On Improving Planning and Strengthening the Influence of the Economic
_ P'iechanism on Increasing the Effectiveness of Production and Improving Work Quality"
(1979), USSR Gosplan approved the Procedure for Devising and Ratifying a System
of Norms'`'` which, in addition to the norms ratified in the five-year plan regarding
the expenditure of labor, wages, material and energy resources, the use of
production capacities; norms governing capital investments, equipment requirements
and reserves, and financial~morms, also envisage the introduction of norms regarding
',See Basic Principles Governing the Formation and Expenditure of the Material
Incentive Fund and the Fund for Sociocultural Measures and Housing Construction
(Incentive Funds) in 1981-1985 in Industry ("Sovershenstvovaniye Khozyaystvennogo
mekhanizma" [Improving the Economic Mechanism], pp 142-153]).
`See EKONOP4ICHESKAYA GAZETA, ;10 10, 1980, pp 11-14.
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the effectiveness of social production. In our apinion, this holds great signifi-
- cance for raising the scientific level of planning and for increasing the effect-
' iveness of economic stimuli and in particular for increasing the sfiimulating
i~zfluence of incentive funds on the growth of production.
The point is that the existing norms and norms ratified for the llth Five-Year
Plan extend mnre to the process of placing resources at the disposal of economic
links azd much less to the use of these resources. 4Jhen society allocates fixed
and working capital to an economic link and s-trengthens [it] with material-
technical, labor and natural resources, society must determine the normative
return on these resources. In our view, such norms must be a most important
element in society's monitoring of the complete and effective use of the
natior.al ecor.omy's resources and together with other norms must comprise the
basis of scientifically substantiated planning and economic stimulation of the
development of production. Accordingly, the incorporation of norms of effective-
ness of social praduction in national economic planning practice and in the
mechanism of economic stimulation is very important and timely.
Proceeding from the aforementioned Procedure for Elaborating and Confirming Norms,
it is expe3ient to determine the economic content, structure and functions of
norms of the effectiveness of sociaZ production. If we approach the given norms
from the standpoint of their role in the formation of incentive funds, they must
in our opinion include the normative level c~ use of production's basic resources
and the degree of satisfaction of the need tor a given economic link's products of
a given quantity and quality. The 3etermination of norms of the degree of
satisfaction of the need for resources and the use of resources should be based
on the national economy's scientifically substantiated requirement for given
types of products and on their production potential. Norms must be oriented
toward the long-term dev2lopment of production, must stimulate the search for
resources and the creation of conditions for the growth of production at enter-
orises whose products are needed by the national economy.
in the structure of normative effectiveness of social production, a major part must
be played by the normative degree of satisfaction of society's requirement for
products of each economic link which will make it possible to orient the
collectives of enterprises and associations toward the elaboration of plans that
ensure the more complete satisfaction of the requirements of the national economy
and the population. It should be noted that the tautness of plans, which is
determined in accordance with the Guidelines on the Procedure for Determining the
Tautness of Plans, characterizes the effectiveness of the use or production
capacities, equipment, material and labor resources in any given period of time.
But in itself the degree of tautness as a relative quantity does not ancourage
the use of zdditional resources in production, the technical improvement of
existing fixed capital, the replacement of obsolete equipment with new equipment,
the modification of structure an~ the upgrading of the skill level of the work
force, etc. As a result of this, the development of production on a higher
technical basis, which makes it possible to satisfy the requirements of the
national economy more c~mpletely, may not be reflected in the higher degree of
tautness of the plans.
For this reason, in the elaboration of inethods of evaluating plans, we helieve it
important to use the degree of satisfaction of the requirements of the national
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economy for the output of a given enterprise, production association, all-union
production association, and ministry as the major criterion. It is expedient to
" e~tablish the degree of satisfaction of needs as the ratio of the optimal volume
of output to ths scientifically substantiated requirement for output which is
the determining factor in the specialization of a given economic link.
The requirement for concrete types of products at the normative level must be
balanced with production through the determination of concrete production links
responsible for such determination, for output of the requisite quantity, mix ar.d
~ yuality. This requires knowledge of the requirement for concrete types of
~roducts and the normative level of satisfaction of this requirement for each
- plan:~ed period and the measure of responsibility for the nonobservance of this
level. This approach will also make it possible to realize the point in the
decree on improving the economic mechanism which states th at responsibility for the
satisfaction of the requirements of the national economy and the population for
_ ~reducts of the necessary mix and quality is borne by the ministry that is the
head ministry in the production of a given product.
The evaluation of the five-year plan with regard to the degree of satisfaction of
the requirements of the natioaal economy will make it possible to determine the
~ material responsibility of each ministry which is the head ministry in the
production of a given product and of its production links for providing the
national economy and population with products of the necessary assort~aent and
quality since the planned magnitude of the incentive funds of a minist~y and its
links will to a considerable degree depend on this evaluation. At the same time,
the requirements of the national economy and the population will be determined
a~t the level of needs stemming from modern advar,ces in science and technology.
The degree of satisfaction of requirements and consequently the evaluation of
plan indicators as well will be directly influenced by the scheduled development
and production of new types of products. This must promote the material motivation
of collectives of enterprises, associations and ministries to accelerate technical
progress.
In order to make an objective evaluation of the tautness of plans, it is important
to ;elect the basic and additional indicators that in each given period are of
decisive importance to the economic link and that at the same time make it possible
to characterize its activity more completely. The Guidelines on the Procedure
for Determining the Tautness of Plans recommend the use of the following as basic
inciicators for evaluating five-year and one-year plans: the use of production
canacities (areas); labor productivity; the share of output in the highest quality
category (or other indicators of product quality); and the enterprise cost of
production (profit resulting from the lowering of the enterprise cost of production).
If necessary, the system of indicators of plan tautness may also include such
indic~3tors as the number of equipment operation shifts, equipment utilizatian,
output-c~pital ratio (general or active part of capital), materials-output ratio
(or experi~iitures per unit of capacity or labor) as well as indicators that are
s~ecific For a given branch or type of production.
~urins~ the development and initial years of quantity production, there is frequently
clecl_ine ir~ the ~,rowth r~:.;:~ of ~the volume of production, labor productivitV,
-~rofit-s, 3nd the utilization of production capacities and an increase in the
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I~ihor-output r3tio, capital-output ratio ar.d production costs i.n general. This
can r~.sult in the tem~orary lowering of the tzutness coefficient for a number of
indicators and to the lowering of the size of the material incentive fund which
lessens the motiv~tion of economic links to master the production of new products
~ and to increase the volume of such production. The basic principles governinp
the formation and expenditure of incentive funds in the llth Five-Ycar Plan
call for the establishment of higher norms governing contributions to funds for
production associations (enterprises) that significantly increase the production
of new, highly effective producer goods and new consumer goods.
The realization of this point would facilitate the inclusion of
- the share of new products in the highest quality cateogry in the overall volume
of production among the basic indicators of the evaluat~on of the tautness of the
nlans. At the same time, the role of a given indicatcr should be strengthened
in the evaluation of the activity of economic links and in the formation ~f material
incentive funds. It would be expedient to include two product quality indicators
in the plan: the share of output in the highest quality category in the total
volume of production and the share of new products of the highest quality cateogry
in the overall volume of production. Norms should be established on the basis of
the same indicators. The share of new products should be calculated in percent
:3s the ratio of the volume of production in the highest quality category mastered
in the last three years to the total volume of. commodity output.
Since product development and the production ot new products during the first few
years increase the tautness of production activity and frequently lower the basic
indicators of the work of the economic link, we believe that the share of new
outpu~ should function as a compensatory indicator. In such a case, considerably
more caei~ht should be given to the share of new products in total output in compar-
~ ison with other indicators in the calculation of the overall coefficient of plan
tautness. When the share of new products is appropriately reflected in the
integral evaluation of the tautness of plans, this will permit economically
justifi~d increases in the planned size of the material incentive fund and the
establishment of higher normative contributions for production associations and
~nterprises that pian the development and production of new products.
Normative indica-tors determined by the method indicated above will be technically
and economically substantiated norms of effectiveness of the production of economic
links. '!'hey may be individual for each enterprise (association) or uniform for
a grcup of enterprises or subbranch and in the case of individual indicators--for
the branch as a whole. In our opinion, the evaluation of indicators in the draft
five-year plan will be objective when it is made through comparison with production
effectiveness norms elaborated and ratified for the five-year plan for each
enterprise, association and ministry before work commences on the drafting of the
five-year plan. The experience of plan evaluation in Minsel'khozmash [Ministry
of Tractor and A~ricultural Machine Building] and Minelektronprom [Ministry of the
;~lectroilics Industry] confirms the practical possibility and expedience of such an
~ipFroach .
The Basic Principles Governing the Formation and Expenditure of the Material
Incentive Fund and the Fund for Sociocultural Measures and Housing Construction in
1981-1985 specify that the planned size of the funds in industry be calculated in
two st-ag~s on the basis of a system of norms differentiated for individual years
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oF tr~e fiv~-ye~r ~lan which in turn are crj.l_culated on the basis of fund-forming
in~~licator_~ -ind tf~e sum of Funds indicated in the cocitrol figures for the five-year
Plan. 'Ctie rr~gnitude of the control f~gur~s for t'~? funds is not linked to the
tautness of control figures according tc fur~d-forming figures btit, as noted above,
is adjusted according to deviations between them and the adopted p]_an indicators.
Under such conditinns, there may arise economically unjustified differences in the
planned size of funds and in the norms governing their formation. At the same
time, stable norms governing the formation of material incentive funds (which are
calcul~ted on the basis of adopted planned fund-form~ng indicators) cannot play
an active, stimulating role or motivate enterprises to consider the total utiliz-
ation of production reserves in the five-year plan. Moreover, the differentiation
of norms governing the formation of incentive funds for various years of the five-
year plan withou~t regard to the tautness of plan indicators means that enterprises
establish rewards of varying magnitude for the attainment of one and the same
result during the five-year plan.
We made tentative calculations that indicate that the norms governing the formation
of the material incentive fund depending on the dynamics of the growth rate and
level of indicators will ceteris paribus differ substantially for various years of
the five-year plan (see following table).
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
l. Growth of labor product.ivity
in � oL plan for 1980.......... 103.8 107.8 112.1 116.9 122.2
2. Ditto for year (increment)..... 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.8 5.3
3. Share of products in the highest
quality category in total
outplit (in o) 15 18 21 24 26
4. The part of the material incent-
ive fund that is earmarked for
the stimulation of each fund-
forming indicator (in millions
of rubles) 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
5. Total pro.fits (in millions
of rubles) 50 50 50 50 50
6. ^dorms governina tYie form~tion
of material incentive funds
(in o of profits):
(a) for each percentage
point oF increase in
labor c~roductivi ty
(Line 4:2:5X100).......... 1.316 1.250 1.163 1.042 0.943
(b ) for each percent~~~;e
~~oint of increase in thc
share of tiroducts ir. the
hi~hest qu~l.ity category
in total output
(I,ine 4:3:5X100).......... 0.333 0.278 0.238 0.208 0.192
_l2
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:1:~ th~_ fri.ven exami~,:le shows, the greater the plani-ied results on thc Uasi~ of fund-
Forming indicator~, the lesser the significance of the reward relative to profit
and hence the lesser the reward for each percentage point of increase in labor
oroductivity and the share of output in the highest quality category in total
output, Since differences in the levels and growth rates of indicators at the
enterprise may be directly associated with the effectiveness of the activity of
the work force, such differentiation of norms for various years of the five-
year nlan may reduce the dependence of the size of the reward on the performance
of the en~terprise collective.
In our view, the planned size of the material incentive fund and differentiated
norms governing its formation for various years of the five-year plar~ should be
established on the basis of the material incentive fund calculated on the basis of
a unirorm national economic norm with due regard to the objective evaluation of
- indicators in the plan of a given year (according to the degree of satisfaction of
the recitiirement for products of a given economic link and the degree of tautness
of the ~lan).
~de believe ttiat aii .important part in the determination of the planned magnitude of
' incentive funds should be played by the calculated material incentive fund, the
magnitude of which should taken for the basic initial norm governing the formation
of funds for all branches. It may be the measure of reward for attaining normative
ir.dicator5 of the effectiveness of production and may be uniform for all ministries
and within ministries--for enterprises and associations. We agree with those
economists who propose that the initial calculated magnitude of funds and the
norms ~overning th~ir forma+_ion be based on a single magnitude for all branches
and that this ma,gnitude be differentiatec~ depending on the tautness of the plans
and the results oF economic activity".
Th~ calculated material incentive ~und and the corresponding initial norm should
be determined in percent of the wase fund on the basis of national economic
proportions adopted in the five-year plan between the size of the material
incentive fund and the size of the wage fund with due regard to the share of the
wages of engineering-technical personnel and blue-collar workers in the latter.
Such an aporoach will make it possible to establish and maintain planned proportions
between the incentive fund and the wage fund. The normative calculated fund like
the normative effectiveness of production should be determined and communicated to
ministries, associations and enterprises before work begins on the drafting of the
five-year. plan.
Th~ ratification of the normative effectiveness of. production and the normative
calculate~l mat~~rial incentive fund for.economic links will make it possible to
create a more effectiv~ mechanism for forming incentive funds. The following
seqtience can be proposed for the development of this mechanism.
%~See, f=or example, A. I. Milyukov, "Pooshchritel'nyye fondy na predpriyatii
(Problemy obr=~zovaniya i ispol.'zovaniya)" [Incentive Funds at the Enterprise
(Problems in Their Formation and Use], Izdatel'stvo "Ekonomika," 1974, p 113;
G. M. Siluanov, "Metody stimulirovaniya povysheniya effektivnosti proizvodstva"
[P9ethods of Stimulating the Increased Effectiveness of Production], Izdatel'stvo
"Finansy," 1976, p. 29.
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Ministries, associations and enterprises whose five-year plan indicators
corres~ond to the established norms of production effectiveness must articulate
planned material incentive funds ir. the volume of the calculated fund, i. e.,
the established normative percentage of the planned wage fund.
Since the attainment of normative indicators of the degree of satisfaction of
requirements and tautness of plans is equal to the normative magnitude of the
contribution of each economic link to social production and to national income,
the sum of the reward in the amount of a un.iform norm for the national economy
must correspond to this contribution. An increase (decrease) in plan indicators
compared with normative indicators means an increase (decrease) in the actual
contribution to social production, which must be properly reflected in the planned
size of the material incentive fund. Therefore, if the indicators adopted on the
basis of the five-year plan deviate from the normative effectiveness of production,
it is necessary to correct the normative calculated fund and the planned material
incentive iund in comparison with the calculated volume accordingly.
The comparison of plan indicators with normative indicators makes it possible to
determine particular coefficients on the basis ~f indicators and integral
ccefficients for evaluating five-year and one-year plans which should be used as the
basis for correcting tlie norma~tive calculated material incentive fund. The norms
derived as a result of the corrections will be norms used to determine the planned
material incentive fund of a ministry, association and enterprise for various years
of the five-year plan. Then it is necessary to establish stable norms on the basis
of ~und-forming indicators. The planned material incentive fund should be determined
for various years of the five-year plan on the basis of the planned norm and
planned wage fund with regard to the share of the wages of engineering-technical
personnel and white-collar ~rorkers in the total wage fund. It should be distributed
into the agpropriate shares that form on the basis of each fund-forming indicator
and stable norms for the formation of the fund based on an individual indicator
should be determines accordingly.
The substantiation of stable norms and the formation of the material incentive
fund in the course of a five-year plan depend on the correlation in which the
planne~l material incentive fund is divided by each indicator for the calculation
of no.rms. A more precise approach and substantiation are required here. For
example, the ciivision of the material incentive fund into two equal parts (50
percent for the growth of labor productivity and 50 per.cent for quality) may in
z number of cases result in unjust differences in norms and actual size of
rnaterial incentive funds from one enterprise to another. This stems primarily from
the fact that the quality indicator (the share of products in the highest quality
cate~ory from enterprise to enterprise) fluctuates within a substantial range.
Thus the formation of 50 percent of the incentive fund on the basis of the share
of output in the highest quality category at an enterprise where this indicator
is 1-2 perc~~nt and at an enterprise where it is 95 percent or higher is evidently
without economic justification.
In our view, the substantiation of norms can be increased if the planned material
incentive fund is divided into two parts and if we determine the share of products
in the hi~hest quality category in total output in order to calculate the normative
quality indicator. For example, let us say ttiat 25 percent of the enterprise's
outout is in the hi~;hest :~uality category. The material incentive fund should be
divided between the share of output in the highest quality category and the growth
of 1a'.?or ^ro~iucti~~i.ty in a orooor~lion of 1:3. At the same time, it is advisable
that ~ perr*~issible sh~r~, in t~ fuzd betweeri 1C and 60 per^ent, for exarnpiE, b~:
established ~or the aroduct quality indicator. ~ince a considF,rable part oi the
' 14
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material i.ncentive Fund falls to the share of the labor productivity indicator
in thc event '~he share of output in the highest quality cate~ory is stnall,
norms gover~ning additional contributions for~ overf~ilfillment and reduction norms
for underfulfillment of the ,iven indicator must be established with due re~ard
to this circumstance. Thus the planned material incentive fund is divirled into
parts that form on the basis of each of the fund-forming indicators that must be
the basis for determining stable norms governing contributions based on fund-
forming indicators for various years of the five-year pl.an.
According to the methods proposed by us, the calculated size of the material
incentive fund for a five-year period and for the various years of the five-year
plari will depend on this fund's single initial norm, on the size of the wage fund
and the share of wages of engineering-technical personnel and white-collar workers
in the wage fund, which will ensure equal "starting" conditions for enterpri~es in
all branches of industry. ~s already noted, the uniform calculated size of the
fund is ~lifferentiated depending on the evaluation of the level of indicator.s f~r
various years of the five-yeai~ pla_n according to the degree of satisfaction of
needs and the tautness of basic plan indicators. The size of the fund will
subsequently differentiated for various years of the five-year plan depending on
the growth rates and level of fund-forming indicators and the planned volume of
profit for the corresponding year. This will orient enterprises, associations
and ministries toward the maximum satisfaction of the needs of the national
economy for their products, toward the effective use of modern advances of
science and technoloay and all production reserves in production, and toward the
~doption and fulfillment of taut five-year plans.
COPYRIGHT: Izdatel'stvo "Pravda", "Voprosy ekonomiki", 1981
5013
CSO: 1828/127
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FO12 OE~F!('1�~1. ii~I: OtiI.V
Lt1BOR
UDC 911.3:31.2
NORTHERN OB' RIVER REGION'S CHANGING MANPOWER SUPPLY ANALYZED
Moscow IZVESTIYA VSESOYUZNOGO GEOGRAFICHESKOGO OBSHCHESTVA in Russian No 2,
Mar-Apr 81 pp 130-136
_ (Article by S. Ye. Mozgalin: "Some Problems in the Formation of Population and
Labor Resources in the Northern Ob' River Region"]
(Text] One of the major aspects of the development and distribution of productive
forces in the USSR in accordance with CPSU economic strategy is the extensive use
of the natural resources of underdeveloped regions. An important part of this work
will be th~ development of oil and gas resources in West Siberia, where a massive
territorial production complex is being established in the north ([1], p 226).
Economic construction in this regionl is being conducted in little-explored terri-
tory. During the initial stages of its exploration, the area was almost unpopulated.
Now it has a fairly large population and the settlement patterns have essentially
taken on distinct outlines and centers. The experience in the settlement and forma-
- r.ion of manpower resources in this region has been unique; in terms of scales and
speed, it is unparalleled in Soviet and foreign practice. It is also interesting
because the population of the northern part of West Siberia, although essentially
new, is nonetheless settling in the territory that has been populated for a long
time and was extensively explored by minor northern ethnic groups.
1'he devclopment of the oi1 and gas resources of Tyumenskaya and Tomskaya Oblasts
cuincided almost exactly with the interval between the population censuses of 1959
znd 1979. In these 20 years radical changes took place in the scales, structure and
settlement patterns of the population (see tables 1 and 2).
When the extensive development of the region's natural resources began, nine-tenths
~~f its entii-e population was concentrated in its southern half. By that time there
was a fairly l~~rge population here (Table 2) and nine cities (two of which could be
cl.assified as large cities). The scales of the subregion's industrial development
were not great and the level of urbanization was low: Due to the small number of
cities, there were no settlements of the urban type, the urban population represented
less than 40 percent of the total and there was no urban population whatsoever in the
majority of administrative zones. Rural population density in farming areas was
2-4 per.sons per square kilometer, or close to the average indicator of the West
Siberian steppe and forest steppe zones.
1. The definitive name for this region has not been specified in scientific litera-
ture, bul the one we use is employed most often.
16
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GOR O[~!'!('I,U. I'SI' (}'~t.l'
In 1959 only ]_0 Percent of the population lived in the northern subregion, including
7.6 percent of ttie total urban population, whicil was c~ncentrated in the centers of
the national districts. The rural population was confined to river valleys (the new
population, primari.ly Russian) and the traditional pasture lands, cattle drives and
huntin~ grounds (the native population). The industrial development of natural
resources had a significant effect on the size, structure and settlement patterns of
the southern subregion's population and radically changed the population in the
north.
In the south these changes were primarily of a quantitative nature. They resulted
fr.om this subregion's evolution into the center of oil and gas resource development
in the northern Ob' zone. Here the urban population and oblast centers grew, par-
ticularl_y Tyumen'. The absolute size of the rural population decreased somewhat.
Table 1
Dynamics of Territorial Population Structure in Ob'-Irtysh Region, %
P o p u 1 a t i o n
Total Urban Rural
Region Territory 1959 1979 1959 1979 1959 1979
Entire Ob'-Trtysh region 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Breakdown:
Souttier.n subregion 25.7 89.9 73.6 92.4 69.4 88.4 80.6
_ Tomskaya Oblast 18.1 40.6 31.5 50.9 33.0 34.5 28.8
Southern Tyumenskaya
Oblast 7.6 49.3 42.1 41.5 36.4 53.9 51.8
Northern subregion 74.3 10.1 26.4 7.6 30.6 11.6 19.4
Khanty-Mansiyskiy
Autonomous Okrug 31.4 6.7 20.7 4.6 25.9 8.0 11.0
Yamalo-Nenetskiy
Autonomous Okrug 42.9 3.4 5.7 3.0 4.7 3.6 8.4
Fundamental qtialitative changes took place during this time in the northern subr'egion.
An urban network sprang up here--it has not evolved into a system as yet, and all of
its future li.nks have not yet come into being, but this is already an obvious terri-
torial network of urban settlements. There are 28 urban settlements within this
subre~,ion (22 of. them founded after 1960), includi.ng Surgut, which has not only
become an important regional organizational and economic center of new develop-
ment [7J, but al.so the first large city in tt-~is vast territory.
13etween 1959 and 1979 the population of the Khanty-Mansiyskiy Autonomous Okrug
increased ].3.3-fold and that of Yamalo-Nenetskiy Okrug increased 3.7-fold. The dif-
ferences in tile population growth rates were connected with the scales and priori-
Cies oi= itati~ral rE:source development: The oil and gas deposits of the Khanty-
Mansiysl:iy Autunomous Olcrug were developed first because they were situated more
convenientl.y in the economic and geographic sense. The development and, consequently,
thc~ settlement of the Yamalo-Nenetskiy Autonomous Okrug did not speed up until the
1970's.
17
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R ONFIC(AL USE O~LY
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i~c~i< c~~~~~tc ~:~t. t~~t' ~~`t.ti
T!~~~ inclu~;trinl cl~~v~~l~~mc~uf c~l the territi>ry af hoth okru~;s brou~;liC al~out the
raE~id c;roweh ot th~ urban population. The need to conduct exploratory work and
huild Iin~ar facilities, however, led to the relatively raPid growth ~f tht~ rural
~~n~~~il~tion as wet] (Tabl~: 2) . The ethn~.c composi.tion of thc~ pc7~ul~~t t~~n ~~f hutf~
diti~ri~~Ls ch;~nged: Northern ethnic groups accounted for a lower percentage (par-
ticularly in cities) while Russians, Ukrainians and Belorussians accounted for a
l~igher one. In connection with the specific economic specialty of this subre~ion,
representatives of al.l union and autonomous republics in the nation took an active
part in its development, and the groups from Azerbaijan, Tatariya and Bashkiriya
were particul.arly large.
Tt~e development oF the northern Ob' region radically changed the social structure.
' The corresponding data of the 1979 census have not been published as yet, but a
comparison of the information taken from the 1959 and 1970 censuses and numerous
sur.veys conducted in ttlc siibregion indicates the basic trends.
A change in ciemo~raphic patterns is characteristic of the entire region and, in
E~:~rticular, of the norther.n subregion: The oldest and youngest age groups are
decreasin~ in size, the working-age groups are growing younger and men account for
a higher percentage of the working-age population, particularly men over the age of
2A (this is due to the fact that women between the ages of 18 and 29 are more often
involved in migration and are more likely to stay in new regions).
Tl~ere is an~ther tendency toward a change in the employment structure. The rela-
tive numher of persons employed in indiistry, construction and transportation is
constantly rising in the Oh'-Irtysh region as a whole, and the relative number of
persons employed in the non-pruduction sphere began to rise at a more rapid rate
in the 1970's. In the southern subregion the rise in the relative number of indus-
trial workers has been particularly rapid, especially in the processing branches.
In the northern subregion the absolute and relative numbers of persons employed in
industry are rising, but more slowly than in the southern part of the region. This
is a result of the present massive scale of construction work in the northern Ob'
zone. Construction is the leading element in this subregion's employment structure.
The northern subregion is also distinguished by a relatively high number of persons
emplo~~ed in transportation, which is typical of the initial stages of development.
I~1 comparison to ttie new settlements, the oil and gas regions in the northern Ob'
-r.one are di5tinguished hy the need to constantly exploit more and more new depos-
its (2~. For this reason, rhe initial stage of development will continue here in
the f~reseeabl.e future and, consequently, there will be a high relative number of
persons emplc~yed in construction and transportation. This will preserve the above-
mentioned features of the sex and age structure of the population for a long time.
Chan~es in the size and structure of the population of the Ob'-Irtysh region are
the resulr of the rapid rise in the demand for manpower and are connected primarily
with the recruitment of people from outside the region. In the southern part of
the region, the hi~h rates of economic construction have created certain difficul-
ties in the recruitmc~nt and maintenance of a labor force (the shortage of comfort-
able housing, the underdevelopment of the public service sphere, long delays in the
SZt15f1CC1011 of demand and so forth). On the whole, however, the natural and
sor_ioeconomic conditions here are typical of developed regions in West Siberia.
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rc~k c~i~t'!('I:~1. U~F: O`L1~
Therefore, tiie problems connected with finding manpower for the southern subregion
are neither distinctive nor particularly acute, in our opinion. In other words,
we do not feel that they call for any lcind of special approach.
The situation is different in Che northern Ob' areas: The low level of economic
development has created several local problems in satisfying the demand for man-
power. Additional local problems are connected with the region's specialization
in the oil and gas industry. On the whole, to provide the northern Ob' region with
manpower, it will be necessary to not only recruit workers for the region but also
to keep them here.
The recruitment of manpower for the northern Ob' region must be examined in its
following basic aspects.
1. The quantitative aspect: The extensive nature of development calls for the
recruitment of hug~ numbers of workers. Besides this, the unfavorable natural and
socioeconomic conditions here require additional manpower for the public service
sphere [4]. In all, the development of oil and gas resources in the northern Ob'
region will necessitate the recruitment of hundreds of thousands of workers.
2. The qualitative aspect: The northern Ob' region has specific manpower require-
ments. Just as any other region of new development (particularly those with a
severe climate), it will require more young men. But the region also needs many
qualif.ied personnel. This is connected, firstly, with the need for intensifica-
tion in all types of economic activity to minimize expenditures of living labor
and, secondly, with the great variety of economic activities that will be conducted
h~re on a sizeable scale.2
- 3. The geographic aspect: Different parts of the norther.n Ob' region are on dif-
ferent levels of economic development [3]. Territorial production complexes are
already taking shape in some parts (ancillary and service branches and a relatively
developed public service sphere already exist in addition to the extractive indus-
~ try). Oil and ~as f-iel.ds in other areas require the minimum production and social
infrastructure. In stil.l other areas the construction of industrial facilities and
liiiear ~inits plays the main role. In a fourth category the territory and mineral
resources are only being studied. Each stage makes specific demands on personnel
and determines the need for manpower.
2. It woul.d be impossible to list all of them here. We will list just the main
"blocks": 1) explor.atory work, connected not only with the prospecting of new
deposit~, but also with the establishment of oil fields and other industriaZ
facilities, supply lines and cities; 2) various types of construction (includ-
ing a high percentage of pipeline and oil field construction projects); 3) oil
and gas extraction; 4) other types of industrial activity (including logging);
5) all types of transport (with a higher percentage of moror and air transport);
G) public services; 7) research, planning and design. In different parts of
the nortl~ern Oh' region these types of activity will be combined in different
ways, but on tlie whole they create a greater demand for personnel in a broad
variety of professions and specialties.
?_0
, O\LY'
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rc~u ot~E~[c~t~~i. ~~~F~ o`t.ti~
In the northern Ob' region the problem of keeping manpower is particularly acute.
Manpower must be recruited on a massive scale, the new population is highly mobile
and there is a significant positive balance of migration, but the migrants are
also less likely to stay, particularly in some cities and oil and gas zones. The
reasons for this are evident. In the initial stages of development the severe
weather has a significant effect on the stability of the population. But the
effect of this factor should not be overestimated: The example of a number o�
cities in the north (especially Noril'sk) proves that the unfavorable effect of
natural conditions on population formation is surmountable. There are reliable
ways of doing tliis: a reduction in the proportional amount of work out~oors, the
mechanization and automation of labor processes, the more extensive use of organ-
- ized forms of manpower recruitment (particularly from regions in the central belt
of the RSFSR and Belorussia), the priority development of residential, cultural
and consumer construction (according to "special northern" designs), the more
- compact layout of cities and settlements to reduce time spent outdoors in the cold,
aiid a developed transportation network in cities and production areas to reduce
the amount of time spent traveling to and from work and cultural and consumer
establishments. Obviously, not all of these measures are equally suitable in
various regions, but they can be effectively used on a much broader scale than at
present. For example, much more comfortable house trailers could be used exten-
sively, not only dtiring the construction stage of development or in special
resource exploitation assignments, but also in geological prospecting work (for
example, highly comfortable prefabricated residences could be brought in by
helicopter). Tt~is would require larger initial expenditures, but it would help
to keep personnel in the region (including qualified personnel with local work
experience) and heighten the efficiency of geological prospecting.
The lowest rate of personnel stability is found in regions characterized primarily
by the construction and establishment of industrial facilities (where there is a
prevalence of work in the open air with a relatively low level of inechanization
and uncomfortable living conditions); here the number of new arrivals is only
slightly in excess of the number of departures. The acute manpower shortage
- increases the volume of incomplete construction, lowers the use coefficient of
equipment, disrupts construction schedules and so forth. The actual cost of con-
struction exceeds the estimated cost of some facilities in the northern Ob' region
by 30-40 percent or more, and around one-fourth of this rise in costs is connected
with the manpower shortage and the discrepancy between the qualifications of this
manPower and the requirements of construction. In cost terms, the negative effect
of the l.ow 1eve1 of manpawer stability considerably exceeds the expenditures needed
to establish living and working conditions that would guarantee a stable labor
force.
[dith a view to just these examples, we should note that when the manpower problem
is beinb solved in the northern Ob' region, stability must be given priority over
recruitment, and this is even more important in the earlier stages of development.
It should be stressed that the recruitment and stabilization of manpower are
closely related. For example, most of the newcomers in the north are young people,
generally without any skills: They usually undergo a brief training course and
are then often used in unskilled work which does not correspond to the educational
level of the younK workers and their ideas about the prestige and appeal of dif-
ferent jobs.
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r�oh o~~r��i:~i.
'Tt?e resulting problem has several aspects. In the first place, the mechanism and
structure of manpower recruitment must be improved. For example, among young
workers the highest rate of stability is characteristic of those who arrive either
as soon as they are discharged from the Sov~.et Army or within 3 years after this
discharge. Apparently, this should be taken into consideration in the practice of
organized recruitment. The stability of manpower will also be promoted by the
furtr.er development of the system of vocational and techni~al personnel training
in the Ob'-Irtysh region through a network ^f ~pe~ialized state vocational training
- institutes. But there is also another side to the problem: At present the machine-
labor ratio in new regions of gas and oil resource development is still inadequate.
This means that there is still a significant demand for unskilled labor and, con-
sequently, there are still prerequisites for a highly unstable labor force. Higher
teclinical standards of de-:elopment and the rating of work positions in each zone
and center of development constitute one of the main ways of reducing personnel
turnover.
In summation, we can stress the following.
l. In a short period of time, a large population and labor force have taken shape
in the northern Ob' region, largely satisfying the local demand for manpower and
ensuring the successful attainment of objectives connected with the creation of a
major oil and gas production base in the region.
2. The basic settlement patterns of the nor.*_'~ern Ob' region have now been estab-
lished; production centers are being rapidly developed in oil and gas regions and
the city of Surgut has become the production center of the entire northern Ob' zone.
3. The main tasks involved in supplying the region with manpower in the foreseeable
future include the following: the consideration of regional peculiarities in the
practice of manpower recruitment; the reduction of proportional expenditures of
living labor in total social expenditures (higher technical standards of development
and the rating of work positions, including jobs in the least developed regions);
the stabilization of the labor force through the improvement of living and working
conditions, specialized vocational and technical training for personnel, the
improvement of terri.torial settlement patterns and the improvement of urban planning.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
[1] "rlateri.aly XXV s"yezda KPSS" [Materials of the 25th CPSU Congress], Moscow,
Gospol.itizdat, 1976.
[2j Volnev, P. V., "An Inquiry into the Choice of Methods of Developing Tyumenskaya
Oblast's Oil Resources," in "Priroda i ekonomika Tyumenskogo Priob'ya" [The
Natural and Economic Conditions of the Tyumen' Cis-Ob' Region], Tyumen`, 1978.
[3] Vorob'yev, V. V. and riisevich, K. N., "Problems Connected with Population and
Labor Resources in Regions of New Development in Siberia," in "Geografiya
naseleniya v sisteme kompleksnogo ekonomicheskogo i sotsial'nogo planirovaniya"
[Population Patterns in the System of Comprehensive Economic and Social Plan-
ning], Leningrad, 1979.
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rok orN~c~n~. iJSE ONI.v
[4J Vorob'yev, V. V., Ishmuratov, B. M., Kosmachev, K. P., Misevich, K. N. and
Mikhaylov, Yu. P., "The Znitial Development of Territory as a Geographic
Problem," in "Geograficheskoye issledovaniye i problemy ekonomicheskogo i
sotsial'nogo planirovaniya v usloviyakh zrelogo sotsializma" [Geographic
Research and Problems in Economic and Social Planning in the Mature SocialisC
Society], Leningr3d, 1980.
[5] "Itogi Vsesoyuznoy perepisi naseleniya 1959 g. RSFSR," Moscow, Gosstatizdat,
- 1963.
[6] "Naseleniye SSSR. Po dannym Vsesoyuznoy perepisi naseleniya 1979 g."
Moscow, Politizdat, 1980.
[7] "Prognozy rasseleniya i planirovki krupnykh gorodov Kraynego Severa" [Forecasts
of Settlement Patterns and Layout of Large Cities in the Far North], Leningrad,
Stroyizdat, 1974.
COPYRIGHT: Izdatel'stvo "Nauka", "Izvestiya Vsesoyuznogo geografich~skogo
obshchestva", 1981
8588
CSO: 1828/119 END
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