JPRS ID: 9099 USSR REPORT POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL AFFAIRS

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JPRS L/9Q99
- 20 May 1980
USSR Re ort -
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- POLI~tICAI AND SOCfOL4GICAl AFFAIRS _
lFOUO 1 1 /80~;
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JPRS L/9099
I~ 20 May 1980
!
,
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USSR REPORT ~
POLITICAL AND $OCIOLOGICAL AFFAIRS
(FOUO 11/so)
CONTENTS
- INTERNATIONAL
Analysis of Recent Developments in Capitalist Economies
(V. Martynov; VOPROSY EKONOMIKI, No 3, 1980) 1
Pospelov Book on Maoism, World Revolutionary Movement
(Boris Vasil'yevich Pospelov; MAOIZM I MIROVOYE
REVOLYUTSIONNOYE DVIZHENIYE, 1979) 17
NP~TIONAL -
Regional Forecasting of Population, Ethnic Processes
(B.M. Ekkel', IZVESTIYA VSESOYUZNOGO
GEOGRAFICHESKOGO OBSHCHESTVA, No 5, 1979) 29
- ' a - [III - USSR - 35 FOUO]
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INTERNATIONAL
ANALYSIS OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN CAPITALIST ECONOMIES
Moecow VOPROSY EKONOMIKI in Russian No 3, 1980 pp 93-102
[Article by V. Martynov: "The Baeic Principles of the Economic Development
- of the Capitalist World."]
[TextJ The definitive ruling principle of our era--the shift from capital-
ism to the communist structure on a world-wide :scale--is manifested primar-
ily in the fol~owing: the growth of the economic power of socialism and
the profound changes in the clasa and political forces in favor of socialism -
in the world arena; the comparative deterioration of the poaitions of im-
- perialism, the exacerbation of the economic, social and political conflicts
in the capitalist syetem, and the growing atrength of the international
working-class movement; the intensification of the conflicts between the
- . imperialiat and the developing countriea, the intensification of the anti-
imperialiat struggls of the liberated states, and, accompanying this, an
inteneification of the procesaes of their social and political differenti-
ation.
The revolutionary process of change from capitaliam to socialiam, a proceae ~
begun by the Great October Socialist R~volution, encompaeses the entire '
hietorical e~ra in which capitaliam has been in the throes of a general
crisis. As a historical princip~,e, the general crisie of capitaliem and
its coming into being and development are the inevitable consequences of -
the exacerbation of the conflicta which are tnherent in the very nature of
capitaliam. In our time this exacerbation of conflicts is redoubled by the -
character of those fundamental changes in the capitaliet economic atructure
which involve the scientific-technical revolution [NTR]. The deep-seated
~ interrelationship between the development of this revolution and the pro- e
cesses of intensification of the economic,,social and political contra~ _
- dictiona in'modern capitalism was analyzed at the I1~M0 [Institute of World
Economics artd International RelationsJ, AS USSR-orga~nized International
Theoretical Conference held in Moscow in May 1979. ~
The revolution in acience and technology and the perceptibly evolving
unified "science-technalogy-production" complex, in which science functions r
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as an indirect productive force, have led in the last third of a century to
fundamental change~ in many of the spheres of physical production. Es-
sentially new equipment and technology in many of the production projects,
atomic and space technology, robots, machines with programmed control~
electronic equipment and ite miniature forms, chemicalization of agriculture,
incorporati~n of the achievementa of biological science in thia aector of _
the economic syatem, etc.--all this has qualitatively transformed produc-
tion. There has been a sharp rise in the general educational, vocational,
and akill level of the labor force--society's principal productive force;
ma~or changes have taken place in the very character of labor activity, aak-
iiig it more complex and more effective.
Application of the achievements of the NTR is the chief factor in the growth `
of national production in the recent decades. In thz broad sense scientific-
technical progress is what determines the current le~nl of the equipment
and technology of production, the changes in its sect~~~rial and physical
structure, the degree of product~on concentration and centralization (and
_ thereby tihe resultant increase in the scale of production and saving in labor
and material sources), the level of education and skill of the labor force,
_ and the methods and system far the organization and management of production.
In the 1950-1960 period, as a reault of scientific-technical progress, a
n~nber of the countries of developed capitalism significantly increased the
rates of growth of the productivity of living labor (as compared to the
1920-1930 period), reduced the capital-output ratio for the output of the
national economy as ~ whole and for industry in particular (on the basis of
a qualitative improvement in the means of production and ob~ects of labor),
and significantly reduced the materials intensivenese of production (the
proportion of physical input in the aggregate national product).
In the chief capitalist countries, by dint of scientific-technical progreas
as manifested in the new equipment and technology, at the beginning of the
1970's they had obtained a 70 percent increaee in labor productivity as
compared to 1�50 and by increasing the akills of the labor force and im-
- proving the organization and management of producti.on a 30 percent increase
in the rest of the 1950`s. In a number of countries (U.S. and FRG) there
was a decline in the norm of production accumulation and a uniform develop- -
ment of the first and second subdivisions of physical production (with
certain fluctuations in some periods). Primarily the intensive type of
reproduction evolved in the United States but many of its aspects are aeen
in all the countries of developed capitalism.
The achievements of science and technology are used by the monopolies pri- `
marily for the purpoae of insuring maximum profit. The capitalist produc-
_ tion relationships preclude the Lse of all the fruits of scientific-tech-
nicai progress in the interests of man and society or for overcoming the _
backwardness of the developing countries. At the same time, in its strug- ~
gle with advanc~ng socialism imperialism is attempting to employ acientific-
technical progress for the creation of ever more destructive means of waging
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war and this is accompanied by a gigantic squandering of society's re-
sources by the militarist machine. Capitalism stands in the way of aolu-
tion of many of the problems common to all mankind, such as environmental
protection, energy, raw material and food problems, the exploitation of
the wealth of the world's oceana, etc.
At the eame time, the relatively rapid rates of growth of domeatic product
and induetrial output in the 1950-1973 period and the growth of labor
productivity enabled the working class of the principal capitalist countries
to obtain in the course of a pereiatent and bitter struggle with the
monopolies, a significant rise in the level of real wages and consumption,
which in turn had a stimulating impact on social production and ita struc-
ture.
One of the natural attributes of the postwar development of world economics
has come to be the acceleration of the process of internationalism and
social production. This process has undoubtedly been furthered by the de-
velopment of the NTR, by the atimulating effect of the intensification of
the international divieion of labor, by the growth of the cooperative re-
lationa of the national economic syetems, by the expansion of international
production specialization and cooperation, and by the development of
acientific-technical and economic exchange and intercourse among the atatea.
The increasing importance of the wnrld economic relations is indicated by
the superior growth of international trade and export of capital, which in
. the postwar period have developEd respectively 1.4 and 1.6 times more
rapidly than industrial production. From 1950 to 1978 production and con-
aumprion of groas domestic product (WP) in the developed capitalist
countries have increased more than three-fold and the volume of their
foreign trade more than eix-fold.
However, despite the enormous expanaion of the domestic and foreign markets
and the development of a far-flung eystem of state monopoliatic regulation
of economica, the acutenesa of the economic and social contradictione in
, capitalism has not diminished but rather has been aharply intensified.
Exacerbation of the Economic Contradictions in Present-Day Capitalism
Tt-ae principal factor in intensification of the contradictione in ~the capital-
ist system and in its ultimate downfall, as K. Marx, F. Engels and V. I.
Lenin showed, is e~ca,cerbation of the conflict between the productive forces
and the production relationships correlating with the growth of the former,
a growth in which NTR plays a rather aubatantial role. These are precisely
the reasons for the intensification of capitalism's basic conflict between
the social character of production and the private capitaliat form of ap-
propriation of the results of the labor process.
In delineating the economic characteristics of imperialism, V. I. Lenin ~
emphasized the fact that in thia stage of capitalism some of its basic
featurea become its contradictions and that there evolved and were obaerved
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�vn vrrtVitii. u~r, UNLY
the features of an era of transition to a higher structure. "Capitalism in
~ its imperialist stage," wrote Lenin more than 60 years ago, "comes close to
amounting to the most comprehensive socialization of production and it
drags the cap:Ltalists, so to speak, against their will and consciousness,
into some new social order, one which is transitional between full freedom
of competition and full socialization.i2
The development of the productive forces of the capitalist countries, a de-
velopment accelerated by the scientific-technical revolution, resulted in
the conversion of capitalist production in the postwar perio,d of a quali-
tatively higher level of its socialization. This was manifested, first, in
the transformation of science into a direct productive force and in an
organic merging of acience, technology and production in a single complex.
It was manifested, secondly in the further increase of production apecial-
_ ization and cooperation, in the development of vertical integration and
mutual build-up of the aectors and spheres of social production, in the
formation of functional economic complexea (agroindustrial, fuel and energy, -
etc.), in a cloae dependence of phyaical production on the nonproduction
sector cf the national economy~and in the new economic role in the develap-
ment of the economic system played by education, public health car~, the
tourist "industry" and recreation. It was manifested, thirdly, in the sharp
acceleration of the internationalism of capitalist production on a world-
wide ecale, the colossal growth of the power of the international monopolies,
and the development of integration of the r.ational economies, a trend moet
clearly reflected by the EEC. Thia growth of the s~cialization of produc-
tion is sharply intensifying the ob~ective Aeed for systematic management
of the economy and it ultimately dictates the need to establish the status
of social property for the means of prodUCtion.
. Under capitalism socialization of production pr~~eede primarily in the form r
of further monopolization of thp economic sya~em and aubordination of it
to the intereats of finance capital. Without dwelling on all the aspecte .
of this complex process, we would like to point out that the dominant posi-
tion in the economics of the developed capitalis countries hae been held by
the diversified complete monopolist associations of the concern type and
that the world capitalist economy, is ~ominated by the international
monopolies (the so-called transnational corporationa--TNK), whose rapid -
growth in the recent decades is the most important phenomenon in the de-
velopment of present-day monopoly capitalism. -
At the present time the TNK are producing more output than any capitalist
country, except for the United States. They control nearly three-fifths of
the world capitalist trade and one-third of the commodity turnover is ac-
counted for by intracorpcration deliver:ies between the center and its foreign
affiliates. While linking together ~he n3tional economies of the various
countries of the capitalist worZd, the 'L'NK's at the same time lead to its -
increasing instability and to the deep~-seated contradictions and crisis
episodes in the world capitalist economy.
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Capitalism also adapte itaelf to the new l~vel of socialization of produc-
, tion by a thorough expanaion of the economic functions of the bourgeois
etate. Also, the impact of the bourgeois state on th~ capitalist atate,
as Lenin foresaw, ia based on the constantly eacalating process of inter-
lacing and merging in a aingle mechanism the pawer of the monopolies and
finance capital with the power of the bourgeoia etate. From one-third to
one-~alf of the national income ie aow being rediatributed through the
state budgets of the principal capitaliet countries. The bourgeois atates~
especially those of weatern Europe, are the largest owners of. the meane of
production.
State regulation has a great impact on the entire course of economic life.
The bourgeois state has taken on many of ttie functions pertaining to the
development of scientific-technical progresa, particularly with respect to
the development and operation of ma~or innovations which are beyond the
capacities of private firme. At the same time, aince the chief function of
the bourgeois state continues to be the task of eatablishing the economic
conditiona geared for the acquieition of maximum profit by the monopolies,
its interference in economic affaira not only does not leasen the acuteness
of the basic conflict but instead intensifies it. The crisis processes of
etate monopolist regulation of economica become a new form of manifestation
of thie conflict.
The intenaification of the basic contradiction in capitalism is most strik-
- ingly manifested in the following conflicts: the conflict between the in-
creasing monopolization of economics and the vital intereata of the working
maseee; the conflict between the limited capacities of etate monopolistic
regulation and the objective requirementa for the syatematic development of
madern production; the conflict between the interests of the monop~ly capital
of the various countries and the self-seeking activity of the international
monopolies bn the one hand and the requirements for the developnent o� the
world ~conomy as a whole on the other.
These conflicts were moat vividly reflected in the economic crisie, of 1974-
1975~ which had a staggering effect on the entire capitaliet ecot:amic sys-
tem and eet it back several years. As compared to the precriaie maximum~
the volume of industrial production fell off in the following amounts:
Japan--21 percent, France--16 percent, U.S.--15 percent, FRG-11 percent,
axLd England--10 percent. There was a significant escalation of the level of
shortfall in production capacities. There was an enormous Yise in mass un-
_ employment, which encompassed all the atrata of the worker population,
especially the young people and the women. The march of the crisis greatly
complicated the inflationary situation.
The course of the crisis was marked by the operation of the deep-seated
ecructural criais of relative underproduction, which also affected auch
very important sectors af the world capitalist economy as power engineering
and production of raw mate~ials and foodstuffs. The sharp rise in world
prices for oil, raw msterials and agricultural products led to a serious
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rux urrtc;tA1, U~~; 'JA{LY
dislocation of the coat proportions in the reproduction of capital. A com- ,
bination, on the one hand, of an enormoua undersupply of production apparatue
and the increase (or threat of increase) of nonsaleable commodity reaerves
and~ on the other hand, the underproduction in various perioda of some com-
moditiea, including oil, foodetuffs, equipment, etc., became a character-
istic feature of the development of capitaltam in the 1970's, one which
greatly inteneified its economi~ inatability.
The criais encompassed all the basic centers and the chief countries of
capitalism ar.d it dealt a ahattering blow to the hfghly developed atate
moncpolist economic system which evolved in the postwar period. "Now it
is all there to be aeen: it refutes one of the principal myths created
by the reformera and bourgeois idealists," declared L. I. Brezhnev with em-
phasis at the 25th CYSU Congress, "the myth that the capitalism of our times
ia capable of ridding itself of crises. The instability of capitaliam is be-
coming more and more evident. The promises ''to restore capitalism to health'
and to create within its framework 'a society of universal prosperity' have
suffered an unmistakeab le failure."
The Characteriatics of the Postcrisis Cycle
After the crisis of 1.974-1975, the economic system of capitalism went into a
_ prolonged depr~ssion and a period of listless revival. The proceas of
adaptation by some of the countries to the new circumstances of repraductlon
groceeded very painfully, unevenly and haphazardly. Thus, the United States
attained the precrisis maximum of industrial production in 1976 ar.d Japan
not until March 1978. For most of the cspitaliat countries the transition
td the pha~e of sluggish progress was an uneteady one; it was interrup!~ed
by conetant fluctuationa and prolonged depressione and was accompanied
new intensification of the inflationary processes, by exacerbation of the
energy problem, by aemicrises which embraced a number of the sectors of
industry, and by cuxrency upheavals. In the industry of the United States
there has been obse*ved since the end of 1979 a slump in production, which,
_ according to the asaessments of a number of American economists, may de-. _
velop into the next economic crieis.
� The 1970's combination of profound crisis upheavals and inflation, a combin-
ation which in the West has been rather aptly designated as "stagflation,"
opened a new stage in the cyclical development of the capitalist economic
syatem, a stage ch~racte rized by a serious decline in the reproduction of
~apital as compared to the 1950-1960 period. This was manifested, first, in
a aharp slr~wing of econo~ic growth. Thus, the rates of increase of gross
domestic prdduct in the countries of developed capitalism in the 1974-1979
Yer.iod wPre 2.4 percent as compared to 4,5 percent in the 1950-1973 period
and the rates of growth of industrial production were 2.1 and 5.4 percent
- reapectively (See table).
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Average Yeafly Rates of Increase of
Production in the~Developed Capitaliet Cauntriea
~ ~ (i.n percenta)
t
Groes Domestic Industrial
Product Production
~ 1951-1973 1974-].y79 1951-1973 1974-1979*
All the Developed Capitalist
Countries 4.5 2.4 5.4 2.1
United Stat~s - 3.9 2.3 4.2 2.4
;
EEC (made up of 9 countries) 4.4 2.1 5.6 1.3
Japan 8.8 4.1 13.2 2.0
*1979 evaluation
The decline was manifested, secondly, in the intensification of inflation,
which, in its depreciation of the real income of the population, became a
- severe and unavoidable sickness of capitalism. Now, unlike the paat yeare,
it ie accompanying the econamic development of capita"lism both in the periods
- of growth of its production and in the depresaion periode, and even in a
crisis recesaion and a period of widesgread unemployment. For example, in
. the 1961-1970 period the coat of living in the developed capitalist countries
roae an average of 3.4 percent a year and in the 1970's (1971-1979) the rise
was now 8.6 percent. Also, in 1979 many of the ~~apitalist countries began
to measure inflation in two-digit figures: in the United States the rates
= were 13 percent, in France 12 percent and in England 15 percent.
I'he effect of inflation on the econamic system is varied: it prolongs the
crisis and depresaion phases of the cyc1Q, significantly retards any in-
crease in the purchasing-power demand of the population, inhibita economic
growth, and impairs the stability of international economic exchange. In-
flation is a factor in exacerbating tihe social and political contradictions
in capitalism and consequently the bourgeois states attempt to regulate it.
However~ their measur~s, at least in the near future, cannot mitigate the
hareh character of the inflationary process.
The new stage ia refiected, thirdly, in the increase in mass unemployment
while maintaining an enormous underloading of the production apparatus, a
circumstance which demonstratea with particular clarity t1~e illogicalnese
and antinational character of the capitalist syetem. According to the of-
ficial data, Che number of unemployed in the developed capitaliat countriea
roae from 8.3 million in 1973 to 15.3 million at the height of the econamic
- crieis in 1975 and to 16.4 million, the current figure. At the same time,
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1 Vl\ Vi ~ 1V1tiL UJI. V1YL1
for example, the workload of the production capacities in the processing _
industry of Japan was 86.5 percent in 1978 as compared to 98 percent in -
precrieis 1973. I~ FRG the figures were 81 and 97 perc~nt respectively, in
France 86 and 96 percent, and in the United Statee 84-88 percent.
The new atage is reflected, fourthly, in the aignificant weakening of the -
proceas of real accumulation of capital and the drastic slowdown in the
rates of growth of labor productivity. Even in the 1977-1978 periad in
aeven of the leading capitalist countries (U.S., Japan, FRG, France,
= England, Canada and Italy), the invesentment process accounted for approx-
imately 0.7 percent of the growth of gross national product. Causing par-
ticular concern among the western econo~ists is the decline in the rates of
growth of labor productivity. In Fhe 1973-1g77 period the level of these
rates fell off in the following amounts as compared to the 1963-1973
period; in U.S. industry from 2.1 to 1.0 percent, in Japan from 8.9 to 3.7 ~
percent, in FRG from 5.3 to 3.6 percent, in France from 5.2 to 4.0 percent,
in England from 3.9 to 1.3 percent, in Canada from 3.6 to 0.8 percent, and. .
in Italy from 5.6 to 0.8 percent.3 In the United States the trend toward ~
decline in the rates of growth of labor productivity has been noted since
the latter half of the 1960's. In the 1947-1965 period in the private
aector of the American economic system the average growth of labor produc-
tivity per hour of time worked was 3.2 percent; in the 1965-1973 period it
waa 2.3 nercent, and in the 1973-1978 period it was 1 percent. Moreover,
the year 1979 saw an absolute decline in output per man-hour.
"The lethargy of the economic system," declared the organ of II.S. business
cixcles FORTUNE, "is manifested in two exceptionally deplorable symptoma:
runaway inflation and stagnating productivity."4 Also, according to this
~ournal, the decline in labor productivity represents a more worrisone
factor than inf lation. The well-known American economist G. Kendrick be-
lievea that the aharp decline in the rates of growtl: af labor productivity
was the result of the leasened effect of the "progress of ~knowledge" (from
1.4 percent in the 1948-1966 period to 0.8 percent in the 1973-1978 period),
the bringing into c.ultivation of l~sa fertile lands (from 0 to 0.2 percent
respectively), the changes in the distribution of resources (from 0.8 to
0.3 percent), the decline in the rates of growth of production (from 0.4
to 0.1 percent), state regulation in respect to environmental protection and _
the development of an infrastructure (from 0 to 0.3 percent), and a change -
in the sex and age structure o.f the em~,loyed population (from 0.1 to 0.2
percent).5 _
The profoundly contradictory and extremely unstable development of capital- ~
i.st economics following the crisis af 1974-1975 genprated an enormoua over- -
accumulation of fixed capizal and this has an effect on both the production
conditions and the realiaation o� surplus value (in all of its converted
forma and particularly profit) and on the level of consumption attained by
the broad working masses. The realities of capitaltsm indicate that thia
relative overacc~nulation capital and its depreciation (decline in the
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norm of profit) becomes, in the context of inflation and the structural
changes, the mcst prolonged and painful ailment of modern capitalism.6
The drastic slowdown in the investment process, particularly for invest-
ments in technicallp n~w, large-scale pro~ects, is one of the chief reasons
for the decline in the rates o~ growth of labor productivity and is linked
with the overall state of the capitaliat market. Aesessing the interrela-
tionship between the movement of investments, the productivity of labor,
and inflation, Kendrick makea this pesaimis*_ic observation: "This is truly _
a vicious circle. The lower level of labor producti~~ity inteneifies in-
~lation. Inflation~resulted in reduced profit. And the reduction {n pro�-
fit generated a still greater reduction in the volume of investments and
productivity."~
The admission of Kendrick does not reveal the real cause and ef�ect rela-
" tionehips among the procesaes involved. Inflation, as we know, ia widely
used by the monopolies to maintain or even to increase profita. But what
is undoubtedly true--and in this lies the dialECtical contradiction--ia
that under the ensuing conditions it increases the riskiness of the large ~
and long-term investments and diarupts the course of the business
_ ac~ivity.$
Unlike the econoffiic cycle of the 1950!s, when the growth of the capitaliat
economic system was largely based on the low prices for fuels and raw
materials, the new cycle, which opened with the crisis of 1974-1975, is
proceeding in the context of relatively high prices for these products~ -
particularly the prices for oil. This, to a considerable degr~e, determines -
both the entire proceas of accumulation of capital and ita apecific char-
acter with relation to the individual countries and industries. Also, the
procesa of the capitaliat economic system's adaptation to these conditions
proceeda extremely slowly and painfully because at present and in the near
future oil is and will continue to be the basic energy conveyer of the
modern economy. The exacerbation of the energy problem--reaulting from the
_ more than doubling of the world oil prices during the year, the continued
increase of U.S. import of oil (from 287 million tons in 1973 to 445 mil-
lion tons in 1979),the scandalously fabulous profits of the tranenational
oil monopolies and the curtailment of oil production in Iran--all this is
again engendering a very painful disruption of the cost propox~tions in
capitalist reproduction.
There are continuing to be industry crises encompassing tha world capitalist
~hipbuilding, metallurgy and rextile industry. A complex and contradictory
aituation has evolved in the realm of international economic relationa.
There has been a sharp eacalation of the deficits in the trade and payment
balances of a number of capitalist countries, eapecially the United States,
and these have led to a serious depreciation of the dollar. The trends to-
ward protectioniam have become stronger.
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- The unusual character of the crisia of 1974-1975 and of the development
~ which followed it is largely determtned by the crisis in state monopolistic
= regLlation of economics on a national and, particularly, on an international =
acale. The present time has revealed all too clesrly, first, that the _
~ traditional forms of anticriaie and anti-inflation policy have become
bankrupt and that the strateg}r of so-called "full" employment has been a _
- disaial failure; second, that the recard is one of utter futility or little
effect in reapect to the state monopolist measures for solution of the
- ener;~y, raw material and ether structural problems of econonic development;
- Chirdly, there has been revealed the bankruptcy and backwardness of the
atate monopolistic forms of regulation of the functioning of the world ~
_ capitali.st economy as a whole. The arms race continues to be an important
factor in weake?~ing the atability of the economic system of the capitalist
countries. The enormous military expenditures are the chief reason for _
the de~icits iu the state budgets of the United States and thE other NATO
countries ansl one of the principal factora in inflation and currency up- -
heavals. They limit the possibilities for the growth of production and they -
genera�.:e a decline in the living standard of the working masses. All these -
phenomer.a and processes not only undermine the mechanism of capitalist re-
production that has evolved but also exa~erbates the social and political
contradictiona in bourgeois society and leads in this way to a deepening
of its general crisis. -
- An important feature of the world economic relationa of the 1970's and
~nother manife~tation of the unevenness of the economic development is the
_ intensification of the rivalry among the ID~in centers of imperialte~n-- _
United Statea, Western Europe--primarily the countriea of the European
- Economic Community--and Japan. According to the latest eatimates, which
i.nclude the increased proportion of new industries and the comparatively
faster rise of the prices for their ourput, the U.S. ahare of the induetrial
production of the capitalist world (in 1975 prices) was 30.9 percent in 1978
ae compared to 37.3 percent when computed in 1970 prices. The share of the
Wester-~ European countrtes and Japan showed a conaiderable riae, amounting
to 35.~ percent (31.5 percent according to the old figures) ~nd 13.7 per-
cent (9.4 percent) respectively.
Although the United States also retaina its overall superiority to any
country of the capitalist wozld, wielding as it doea the greatest acientific-
- technlcal, economic and military-political power in the system of imperialist
atates, by the mid-1970's its relative positions had grown significantly
wea;c.er. In many of the economic sectors the leading West European states
and Japar. had attained positions equal or even superior to the United States
(nousehold electric appliances and electronics, production of plastica and
resina). Now the West European and Japanese monopolies are not only com-
- peting auccesafully with the Amerfcans in the world market and the market of
the United States itself but they are also aetting up their own enterprises
on heretofore forbidden American territory, -
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The growth of the rivalry among the three power centers of modern capitalism -
is~ of course, proceeding within the f ramework of their military-poli.tical
alliance and has advanced to the forefront in the face of the growing power
_ of socialism and the world revolutionary movement. But the rivalry is
nurked not by a centrifugal but a centripetal course in the relatione among
the imperigliet etates. Evidence of thie ie, in particular, the fact of
regular meetinga of the leadera of the chisf capitaliat states.
One of the most important factora in the increased economic instability of
capitalism in today's world is the crisis situation in the structure of
capi~alist production and in the system of international capitalist dis-
tribution of labor which has evolved. The situation manifests itself pri-
inarily in the continued backwardness of the liberated c~untries and their
subordinat~ position in the system of distribution of labor which has come
into being. Overcoming the economic and social backwardness o.f the young
states is one of the most critical and most urgent problems in the develop-
_ ment of mankind. It is aggravating the economic instability of capitalism
and increasing the need to resolve a number of global problems, particularly
the energy problem. Reso?ving this problem requires, for example, a sub-
stantial increase in the world consumption of the quota of inexpeneive -
types of mineral fuel, chiefly coal; in the more distant future it requirea
"inexhauatible" energy sources (thermonuclear, geothermal and other kinde
of energy) as well as the implementation of large-scale measurea for energy
_ conservation.
The situation in thQ young national statea continues to be grave. In them
400-500 million persons are suffering from hunger and chronic malnutrition.
The gap in the levels of economic development as between the induatrial
capitalist countries and the developing ones has increased from 11-fold in
1950 to 13-fold in 1977. There is a growing differentiation among the lib-
_ erated countries themaelves; in the group of the poorest of them consumer
goods production (WP) per capita is only one-twelftl~ of that in the most
developed countries. As before, the former colonies occupy a subordinate
and dependent position in the internation~l division of labor. Moreover,
this dependency is worsening as a result of the import of modern equipment
and technology. The monopolies and imperialist states are exploiting this
dependency of the developing countries and are purauing a policy of
"technological neocolonialism."
At the same time, there are also some counteracting trends; first, the
stzuggle of the developing countries for their economic independence. As -
we krrow, in the 1970's many of the young states put into effect a wave of
nationalization of foreign assets in the realm of extraction of raw mater-
ials. T'he natural wealth of the developing countries is now largely in _
_ their own hands. The OPEC countries h~ve established effective control not
only in the realm of oil production but also in respect to the prices for
- oil. This is evidence of an important chan~e in the developing countries'
role in world econamics. Recent events indicate that developed capitalism
too is to a considerabl~ extent dependent on deliveries of raw materials.
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run vrrlLlAL U~~ UNLY
~ There nas been a significant escalation of the developing countries' role
_ in world poli*_ics. They have been united and persistent in their demands
for the est~blishment of a new international economic order. And although
at prQaent their struggle has achieved no practical results and imperialism -
hae ae a whole be~n succesaful in maintaining ita economic poaitions, the
_ problem of resr.ructuring international economic relatione on an aquitable
democratic basis will affect the character of world development. As we
know, this atruggle, which is ob~ectively directed against imperialiam, ia
- being atresaed by the Soviet Union and the other countries of socialist
- concord.
Imperialism--Still a Powerful Enemy
- Monopolistic capitalism continues to be s serious and dangerous enemy; it
_ possesse~ a powerful induatrial, technical and scientific base and enormous
- military potential. And underrating it would be a dangerous mistake; thi~
n^{nt nas been repeatedly stresaed in the documents of the international
w~~~k~ng-class and communiat movement and in the decisions of the congresses
of the fraternal parties. "The communists," said L. I. Brezhnev at the
25th CPSU Congress, "are by no means predicting the 'automatic collapse' of
- capitalism. It still has considerable reserves,"
Monopolietic capitalism is aeeking a way out of its current difficult
economic situation by mounting an offenaive against the positions of the
working class and other laboring sections of the population. This design
ia being aerved by the capitalist rationalization which is being widely
practiced in the bourgeois statea. At the same time, in the context of
'-he antagonism between the two different social systema and the wide acope '
s the class struggle, the ruling cir.cles in the countries o�f developed
capitalism have been forced to maneu~~er and to resort to partial reforms and
cor.cessions to the labor masaes. They are seeking for this purpoae new
- means and methods for state monopolistic regulation of the economic system;
this includes the field of economic integration and coordination of the econ-
omic policy of the chief capitalist powers. However, to resolve or allevi-
ate their economic and social problems, atate monopolist capitalism will
try to exploit the achievements of scien~.ific-technical progress. This also
- stems from the fact that the center of gravity of the economic competition
between socialism and capitalism is more and more moving into the field of
development of science and technology and als~ into the realm of enhancement
of the effectiveness oL introduction of the achievements of the NTR into
the national economy. -
- Naw being atepped up is the role of scientific research and experimental
design work (NIOKR) in the economics of the United States, the countries of
Western Europe, and Japan. In recent years these countries have begun anew
to rapidly increase their expenditures in this field. The effectiveness of
- the research and de~~elopment is increasing on the basis of reinforcement of
the supply of scientific workers and engineers (for EVM (electronic
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computereJ, electronic instruments, etc.), e:cpaneion and improvement of the
information base (national automated systeme of information service are now
bei.ng set up in the United Statee, FRG and Japan) gnd the atate and inter-
etate epecial-purpose programs, and enhancement of the ekilla of the
ecientific pereonnel as a result of the continuing revolution in the field
of education. In the United Statea the capital-labor ratio in the field of
NIOKR is expected in the near future to reach the level of the capital-
labor ratio of the proceasing industry; the same thing is also happening
in the other leading capitalist countriea.
Developing at an accelerated pace are the new science-oriented sectors of
the capitalist economy. In them are concentrated 75-80 percent of all the -
expenditures for NIOKR and 35-40 percent of the gross investments in indus-
try. Particularly great importance attaches to the development of new
sectors in machine building. Thus, in the United Ststes in 1960 29 percent
of all the machine-building output went for radio electronics, EVM produc-
tion, and instr~mment building; in 1975 the proportion was 39 percent; and,
according to the forecast estimates, the proportion will reach approximately
48 percent in 1985. These induatries are now already determining and in the
: future will to a still greater extent determine the rates of acientific-
technical progreas and the effectiveness of capitalist economica.
In particular, it ie anticipated that on the basie of improvement of the
electronic computera, mass use of microelectronics (microprocessors, min- ~
iature EVM's, etc.) as well as increasingly more wideapread uae of robots,
there will be a significant escalation o� the level of production sutomation.
The ecale of production and the uae of EVM's now represents one of the moat
important characterietics of a country's economic and scieatific-technical
pot~ntial. The supply of EVM's in the United States, Japan and FRG ia ex-
pected to increase fram approximat~ely 210,000 in 1975 to 450,000 in 1985
and the supply of machine tools with numerical program control from 50,000
- to 160,000. The number of microprocessors included in the production equip-
ment will increase from 77,000 in 1977 to 3 million in 1985. Many experts
believe that on this basis by the mid-1980's there will be mZas replacement
of the productive capital in most of the sectors of the processing industry. -
Increased attention is now being given to the development of essentially new
- types of production technology, especially the energy conservation types;
in the long term this may involve a fundamental restructuring cf many of
- the sectors of industry, particularly the traditional ones. The continu-
ing revolution in the biological scieaces will help to increase efficiency
in the production of food products. There will be a distinct expanaion in
the production of new materials as a result of possible successes in the
realm of chemistry. There will be a significant increase in exploitation
of the poorly developed zones of the ahelf of the world's oceans and the
Arctic and sub-Arctic territoriea.
On the basis of the development of science and technology, the capitaliet
countries will probably be able to accomplish the following in the 1980's
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and especially in the 1990's: First, step up the rates of growth of labor
- productivity as compared to the 1970's (although in the United States and
particularly in the countriea of Weatern Europe.and Japan they will ap-
_ parently be below the figures for the 1950-1960 period). Second, atabilize
or even reduce the capital-output ratio for physical production (in the
United Statea) with a significant slowing of its rise in FRG and Japan
(deapite the development of the highly capital-intenaive measures connected
with solution of the energy and ecological problems in theae countries).
The plans call for further increasing the effectiveneas of the inveatment
process (stepping up the proportion of the active portion of the fixed
capital and reducing the time perioda for thve conatruction of installations)
involved in improvement of the ecient~fic-technical base of capital con-
struction. Third, making a definite reductio.-~ in the energy and capital
intensivenes$ of production.
- According to the forecast prepared by the IMEMO of the AN USSR with respect
to the development of world capitalist economics, the rates of economic
growth of the chief capitalist countries, adjusted for cyclical fluctu-
ationa, before the end of this century will in all probability be sub-
stantially lower than the rates attained in the 1950-1973 period. However,
we cannot rule out also a relatively substantial growth of the capitalist
economic system: an approximately 2-2.3-fo~.d increase over 1975 for the
WP of the industrial countries and an approximately 2.5-fold increase for
their industrial output. In the compilation of this forecast consideration
was given, on the one hand, to the factors which retard the development of
capitalism--the inevitability of recurrence of profound economic crises (of
the 1974-1975 type), continuance of a high level of inflation and constant
, unemployment, the probability of new outbreaks of energy and other struc-
tural criaes, the intenaification of the internal social contradictiona,
_ and exacerbation of a number of external economic conflicta and, on the
other hand, the factors which further economic growth--scientific-technical
progress, improvement of production organization and management, and ex-
panaion of the internal market on the basis of an escalation of personal
and, especially, state consumption.
Imperialism is trying to defend its positions in the face ~f the muntiply-
ing forces of socialism, the national liberation and people's democratic ,
revolutions of the developing countries, and the international working-
class movement. Its strategy in internal economic policy is aimed primar-
ily at resolving the problems entailed in structural rebuilding of the econ-
rnny (improvement of the scientific-technical and production infrastructure,
particularly in the fields of power engineering and transport, providing in-
centive'for the development of science-oriented industries, and acceleration
of modernization of the labor intensive and energy intensive production
sectors), and reduction of the rates of inflation and the number of unem-
ployed, thereby assuring the mnnopolies of the profitable use of capital.
't'he internal economic strategy of imperialism will be characterized by a
:~triving for coordination of the policy of the chief capitalist countriea
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(along theae lines imperialiam attempts to bridge the gap bet::*een the grow-
ing economic~interdependence of the countries of developed capita~iam and
the narrow national bounds of the state monopolistic regulation of the econ-
omic processes); also by a aearch for new means and methads in relationa
with the developing countries: the tactic of minor concessiona and the
etrategy of maintaining and strengthening their poeitions by means of "tech-
nological neocolonialism"; the inteneified attempts to pursue a coordinated
foreign economic policy in relation to the socialisr states (refusal to sell
new equipment and technology, a differentiated approach to the various
countriea of socialiam, playing the so-called "Chinese hand at cards,"
etc.).
Recently gaining the upper hand in the United States and a number of other
capitalist countries is the dangerous courae of repudiating detente--a
courae of widening of the arms race. The aggressive imperialist circlea
hope that this foreign policy atrategy, which they acquired from the "cold
war" period, will enable them to hold off the progreasive social changes in
the world, weaken the Soviet Union economically, retard its movement on the
path of enhancement of the material welfare and cultural level of the Soviet
people, and thereby reduce our country�s impact on world development. The
ideologista of militarism are again drag~ing out the decrepit "theories:'
which hold that the development of military production can generate an in-
crease in employment and an expansion of the market. However, life's ex-
perience has repeatedly demonstrated the bankruptcy of this strategy of
inperialism. There is no reasonable alternative to detente. The policy of
detente has deep roots. "It hae the support of powerful forces," said L. I.
Brezhnev, "and this policy has every prospect of continuing to be the prin-
cipal orientation in the relations among the states."
Capitaliem entered the 1980's torn by aharp economic, social and political
conflicts; the low rates of economic growth and the crisis upheavals, masa
unemployment and rising inflation, the pr8longed character of the exacer-
bation of the energy problem and other global problems of world develop-
ment, depreciation of the dollar and intensification of the conflicts among
the imperialists, escalation of the struggle of the working masses of the
capitaliet countries and intensification of the anti-imperialist movenent
of the liberated nations in opposition to neocolonialism. All this is
deepening the economic and political instability of capitalism and exacer-
bating ita general crisis. ~
FOOTNOTES
1. See [Russian] "World Fconomics and International Relations" No 6, 7 and
8, 1979.
2. V. I. Lenin, "C~nmplete Collected Works," Vol. 27, pp 320-321.
3. [Engl~sh] "OECD Economic Qutlook," July 1979, p 23, ~5, 29.
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- 4. [English] FORT[JNE, October 8, 1979, p 89.
5. (Englieh~ "Contemporar.y Economic Problema 1979." Washington, 1979,
pp 33-34. _
6. The bourgeoie economiste hFVe always re~ected Marx's doctrine on the
reaccumulation of capital because it clearly reveals the profound ir-
reconcilable conflicts which are internally inherent in the capitalist
production relationa. All the more aignificant is the conclueion drawn
by W. Forrester, the well-known American mathematical economist,
profesaor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and author of
a dynamic model of the development of American economics. He believes
. that the prolonged cyclical decline of the U.S. economic situation is
due to "the surplus of capacities in the sector of capital." ("The
Futurist; October 1973, p 357).
7. [English] BUSINESS WEEK, F'ebruary 13, 1978, p 27.
8. According to the expresaed opin.ion of American economiat G. Stein,
former chairman of the Committee of Economic Advisers under Presidente
Nixon and Ford, "inflation is at best unpredictable and incompatible
with the normal flow of economic life."
COPYRIGHT: Izdatel'stvo PRAVDA, VOPROSY EKONOMIKI, 1980
7962 -
CSO: 1800
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INTERNATIONAL -
POSPEIDY BOOK ON 1~AOISM~ WOR?~ REVOLUTIONARY N~JVEI+~NT
Moscow MAOIZM I PQROVOYE REVOLYUTSIONNOYE DVIZHENIYE (Ma,oiam and the Inter-
nationa,l Revolutionary Movement) in Russian 1979 signed to press 7 Aug 79
pp 1-11~ 185-190, 198, 199
[Ebccerpts from book by Boris Vasil'yevich Pospelov, Izdatel'stvo 'Nauka", -
under the auspices of the USS jAcademy of Sciences Institute of the Fa,r
East, 13,000 copies, 198 pages
The monograph is devoted to a critique of the views of the Maoists
regarding the essence of the World revolutior~ry process. Much attention
is given also to unmasking the ideologica,l banI~uptcy of Maoist groups in
various countries of the xorld.
Contents p~e
Introduction 3
Chapter 1. The anti~+larxist essence of the'Haoists' views on
questions of wax, peace and revolution ~
Anti-Marxist determina.tion of the na,ture of the modern
era in I+~aoism 23 -
Apolo~etics of xar in Ma,oism 36
Anti-Marxist interpretation of the question of the
forms and methods of the revolutiona,ry struggle 4~
Cha,pter 2. Ma,oisirr-this is antisocialism 59
Chapter 3. Maoism a,gainst the internationa,l worker's movement 73
Ideologica,l arxi political ba,nI~uPtcy of Ma,oist groupa 94
Cha,pter 4. Ma,oism--a threat to the na,tional liberation movemen~ 119
Ideolugical-politica,l content of the Ma,oist theory of
- the "people's ~ar" 122
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The na,tiona,listic direction of the Ma,oist concept
of "be~ng self-reliant" 1~,
- Resemblance of Maoism to bourgeois-nationa,listic
idea,s spread by the rea,ction in A~o-Asian countries 165
Conelusion 185
Notes 191
Bibliograpl~y 192
Introduetion
. The modern era ie cha,racterized by increasing expansion ar~d deepening of
the xorld revolutionary procesa. There is growt~h in ~he forces of socialism,
which 3s having more an,d more influence on world development. Connected
yrith the successes of the world socialist system are the ~successes of
the �lnterna,tiona,l worker's movemen~t, and the new victories of the na,tiona,l-
liberation movement. These events of world historical significa,nce confirm
the correctness of the Marxist-Leninist doctrine about the inevita,bility
of the triumph o~ socialiam on the earth, tt~ey fntensi~r the ideological
and political infl~nce of World socia,lism on internationa,l development,
~,nd they contribute to the groirth of the preatige of I~(a,r~cisurLeninism in '
the nonsocialist world.
The everiintensifying influence of Ma,rxist-Leninist d~ctMne on the ideo-
logica,l-political situa,tion in ca,pitaliat countries, and also ~n developing
countries, the inspiring example of the Workers of socia~ist countries
_ making hiataric conquests in communist construction, and the economic a,nd
political successes of the countriea of socialism force the ideologie~ts of ~
the imperi.alist bourgeoisie to throw ,all their forces into the struggle
aga,inet socialist ideology, again~t the Marxiet-Leninist ideae whioh ma,ke
- up the theore tical basie of the internationa,l communist arul worker's ~
movement.
In the ideological struggle against the forces of socialism and Ma,rxism-
Ie ninism, world imperialism is gtriving to use different revisionist ideas,
to encourage the apread of na,tiona,listic theories~ hoping to set them off
aga,inst the sole internationa,l teaching of l~fa,x~cism-Leninism. Ma,oism ha,s beaome
one of such ideologica,l currenta. Ma,oism is closing in on the concepts
of the imperialist bourgeoisie with respect to a whole s�eries of questions
of ths theory of social development. Especially attracting the bourgeois
ideologists in Ma,oism is its anti-Soviet, anti-socia,list direction~ the
na,tiona,lism inherent to it, Nhich has taken on the form of G reat-Han
- cha,uvin ism. ~
Such a tra,it of this ideology as the petty bourgeois ideological-political
= current dictates the necessity of a constant theoretical ba,ttle againsst
ita� pseudo-saientific conceptions. Namely such a, task ha,s 'been pla,ced
- before Soviet communists and social scientists by the 25th CPSU Congress. ~
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One of the important theoretica,l and pra,ctical qu~tions of the interna,-
tiona,l communist movement raised at the congress is the question of further
strengthening the unity of the ranks of this movement. Ma,rxist-Laninist
r evolutionary theory seea namely in the unity of ~�~aternal pa,rties the
condition for their high fighting efficiency, the ba,sis for suecess~ul
8olution of all the problems of the revolutiona,ry atruggle.
Kha.t ~,nti-Marxiat currents at the present time are hindering the develop-
ment of the process of ft~rther consolidation of the Korld communist move-
ment? Tl~ese are right-rring a~ left-wing revisionism, the struggle aga.inst
_ xhich was considered by the congress as a common ta,sk for all communist
parties. The congress also corriemned concessions to opportunism, and
stressdd the damage which is being done to the revolutiona,ry movement by
the opportunistic practice. At the congress especial attention was given
to defending the principle of proletarian interna,tiona,lism.
The 25th CP6U Congress stressed tha,t strengthening the unity of the communist
movement is possible on]tiy on the ba,sis of' I~la,rxist-Leninist doctrine. In
light of the given situa,tion a necessary condition for ~rther strengthening
such unity xas decla,red by the corg ress to be an impla,cable, uncompromising
struggle against the ~deology a,nd policy of Maoism. This goal ensues
f`rom the very essence of lia,oism as a tendency f~r~damenta,lly hoatile to
l~larxism-Isninism.
Hoxever the 25th CPSU Congress did not 13mit itself ~ust to a pronouncement
of the task of the atruggle againat Ma,oiem. Ha,ving atressed an~d aub-
stantiated the necesdity of the ideological and theoretioal struggle against
this anti-Marxist tendency~ the congreas itself xas model of principled
criticism o~ thia tendency. The rea,ctionary essence of Na oist ideology arui
policy xas disclosed with ultimate clarityy arui the damage which it is
doing to the revolutionary movement was demonstrated in the report of
Genqral Secrgta,zy of the CPSU Central Committee L.I. Brezhnev, in the
speeQhes of delegates to the coragress~ in the speeches and greetings of
the ma,3ority of representatives of communist arui worker parties and also
na,tional-revolutiona.rjr parti~s attending the congress.
The policy of the Maoists "not only is completely alien to socialist grin-
ciples and ideals~ but in essence has become an important reserve of
imperialism in its battle against socialism~" L.I. Brezhnev said in h3s
~ report. "Such a policy f'rom Beijing is deeply contradictory to the interests
of all na,tior~ , We will rebuff this infla,mma,tory policy, we Ki.ll deferxi
the interests of the Soviet state, the socialist~. commonwealth, the world
communist movement. Now it is no longer enough to say tha,t Ma,oiat ideology
- and policy are incompatible with I}r~cist-Leninist doctrine. They are
directly hostile to it" (21, p. 12 .
The conclusions and positions ~ormula.ted. in the documents and materials
of the congress reflxte the psevdo-theoretica,l concepts of Ma,oism. The
eva,luation of the essence of the mod.ern era, developing under the deter-
mining influence of three revolutiona.ry forces set forth in the report of
L.I. Brezhnev and other documents of the congress; the statement a'bout
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flirther intensifying the role of the socialist camp in world devslopment;
the concise statement of cementing the positions of the peace-loving
forces ar~ the irreversibility of the process of detente~, which is ha.ving
favorable effect on the development of the world revolutiona,ry processi
- and the etatements set forth in the materials of the congress about the
formo and methoda of the revolutionary struggle and the ways of
accomplishing socialist revolutions~ about the tactical line of the ac-
tivity of communist and worker pa.rties at the present stage--all these and
~ other conclusions confirm and develop the positions cor.ta,ined in documents
_ of the world communist mo.vement adopted at interna,tiona,l forums in. previous
yea,rs. In other words, the 25th Congress of our pa,rty ha,s con~irmed and
strengthened. that theoretica,l foundation~ resting on which the communist
and worker pa,rties of the world, the Ma.rxist scholars have waged and are
_ waging the struggle against Ma,oism.
- At the 25th congress a principled evalua,tion of Ma,oism was given, presented
'by attending delegations of comiminist and worker parties and also na,tiona.l- ,
democratic and leftist-socialist pa,rties of the world.
_ Reflecting the position of the world communist mo_v~ement with respect to
Ma.oism, the representa,tives of Marxist-Leninist parties decisively con-
- demned Ma,oism as one of the freaks of anti-communism.
Striving to disrupt the process of relaxation of internationa,l tension
axui to foist adventurist tactics on the revolutiona,ry movement~ the
Bei~ing Ma,oists and their adherents outsic3e of China, ha,ve joined with
- the forces of reaction, staking on the weakening of the anti-imperialist
front. The attack of the Maoists on the forces of na,tiona,l liberation
has unfolded in the zone of na,tional-liberation revolutions. The ruinous
consequences to which following Ma,oist dogmas lea.ds have been shown in
the speeches of representatives of communist and. na,tiona].-democratic
parties of the developing countries.
The Bei~ing lea.dership ha,s unfolded underminixig, schismatic activit~ against
the communist and worker parties of the world with the aim of undermining
the unity of the interna.tiona,l communist mavement, of weakening the fighting
capa,city of its ranks. Ha,ving met a decisive rebuff to its attempts to
undermine the unity of the movement on the part of the absolute ma,jority
of these pa,rties, the Bei~ing lea.dership has been forced to cha,nge its
tactical line. The i+faoists ha,ve set before themselves the goal of
fostering the appearance of a~ neutra,list rela.tion to Maoism~ of presenting
the matter in such a way as if the existing differences are exteruled only
to their rela,tions with the CPSU and do not touch those with other commu-
nist parties. Ma,oism represents an ideology and policy hostile to the -
goal of revolutionary reconstruction of society. Following it mea,ns a
complete departure from Ma.rxist-Leninist doctrine. It is no accident _
therefore tha,t the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the United
Stat~s, G. Ha,ll~ stressed. in his speech at the 25th CPSU Congress tha.t
to occupy a position of neutra,lity in the struggle against Maoism "mea,ns
to accomod.ate oneself to opportunism."
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What does it mean to occupy a neutralist position in the ideological and
political atruggle against Maoism? In the ideological axea this means
silent ag~eement ~rith those distortions of Ma,rxism-Isninism which the
Maoista pasa of`P as ita development~ and agreement with the attempts of the
Maoist lea,derehip to foiet ite iddology which ia f~zr~damentally hostile to
i~ar~cism-Leninism on the xorld revolution~,ry mo vement. Among the arguments
Fuahing the proponante of neutra,liem to avoid an open bettle with Maoism~
not in the last pla,ce is the desire to interpret Maoiam as a"national"
variant of Marxism-I,eninism. This erroneous premise has such far-reaching
coneequences because it substantiates the possibility of the existence
oY "national" va,riants of Marxism, it ~ustifies the attempts of proponents
o~ such a position, who under the gretext of development of Marxist doctrine
ar+a .attempting to introduce into it elements which axe emasculating the
revolutionary spirit of Marxist theory.
In the political arna such a position mea,ns eva,ding condemnation of the
steps of the Maoist leadership on the internationa,l arer~, directed at in-
creasing tensions and provoking a nek Korld war~ at disruption of the pro-
cess of expa,nding the xorld revolutiona,ry movement. It signifies a reflxsal
to pa,rticipate in joint, coordinated actions in defense of individual people,
partiss and organiza.tions which ha,ve been victims of the arbitrary rule
of rea,ationa,ry forces, in defense of sta,tes which ha,ve been subjec~ to
imperialist aggression. Is it possible~ if you are censuring the Ohilean
~unta, not to censure at the same time the Chinese leadership~ whieh ha,s
given it every assistance? Is it poasible~ condemning the intervention
- oP ra,cist and inrperialist forces in the national-liberation movement of the
_ peoples of A~`rica, not to condemn the same for forming a block xith these
forces?
' The appea.rance of neutralist tendencies with respect to Ma,oism and. its
concepts ma,y create for its ideologists and propagandists additiona,l condi-
tions for implementing hostile activity against the revolutiona,ry forces
of modern times. Considering the significance which the imperia.list forces
give to Maoism in the struggle against world socialism, against the commu- _
- nist and worker's movement~ it is possible to note tha,t a weakening of the
theoretical struggle against Maoist ideology will pla,y into the ha,n~ds of
the forces of xorld reaction.
- Neutralism with respect to Ma,oism is connected with nationalism and is one
of the forms of its ma,nifestation. It is espeaially dangerous for the
na,tional-liberation movement. ~t the present time, when the former coloni-
al and dependent countries have achieved political independence,~and in con-
nection with their choice of the path of their f~,trther development, a
del3.mitation of the class forces is occurring in them and the c]ass struggle
ia being intensified. Nationalism, as the ideology of the na,tional and
petty bourgeoisie, is being 'filZed more and more with reactiona,ry, anti-
communist content. Under such conditions agreement with Ma,oist directions,
the re~ZSal to fight aga,inst Ma,oist ideology are equivalent to the accep-
tanae of a nationalistic course, signify.ing unifica,tion with the loca,l
bourgeoisie, and the loss of class positions.
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No less harmflzl for the communist and worker's movement, and also for
the sociali~t countries are the consequences of .nationa,listic vascilla,-
tions, the iarge to deviate f'~om condemnation of Ma,oism. One of Beijing's
_ tactical methods to di vide the xorld revolutionary movement is just
exactly to play up na.tionalistic tendencies and mani~estations of na.tional
egotism. Such a tactic consiats also in the striving to single out the
bearers of such tendencies, to accent thAir "special services" to the
revolutiona~ry mo:vement in order to set them in opposition to other organiza-
tions, pax ties and countries pasticipating in this movement. When evalua,ting
the conaeq,uences of the policy o~ Maoism, aimed at splitting worl~i socialism,
the communist and worker's movoment by means of galvanizing arui inspiring
na,tiona.listic phenomena, it ie necessary to keep in mind the preeence o~
the ob~ective ba.sis for the emergence of such phenomena.
In socialist countries this basis can~ for instance, be comprised of the
complexity of the process of tranaforming bourgeois na,tions into socialist
ones~ the complexity o~ esta,blishing nationa,l rela.tions between individual -
na,tiona.lities of these countries, underevalua,tion of the existence of ~Che
tendency toward rapproachement of na,tions under the conditions of a national
renaissance as a result of socialist changes.
In the communist and worker movement the objective basis for emergence of
na,tiona,list phenomena can be the following processes: the interna,tiona,liza-
tion of capitalism, in the course o~ which the na.tiona,l interests of indi-
vidua.l states and peoples axe suppressedi intensification of the migration
of foreign workers in connection with the formation of internationa,l
corpora.tionsi the spread of bourgeois-na,tiona,listic theories and views
(Zionj.sm~ neofacism, raciam, anti-semitism and others)s and also the
cosmopolitan cha,ra,cter of imperialistic integration, the multinational
make-up of the popula,tion of a number of capita liet countries~ and others.
- Considering all these facts~ it is impossible not to see how urgent the
struggle against the attempts of Maoism to fl~rther the appearance of
na,tiona,listic distortions is for the communist and worker's movement.
The unacceptablity of a neutralist attitude toward Ma,oism becomes
especially clear in light of wha,t ha,s been said above.
Overcoming the neutralist position with respect to Maoism~ attaching to
the theoretical struggle against Ma.oist ideology all the new pa,rties azid
organizations, the progressive scholars and public figures thus become
one of the important conditions fbr consolidating the front of anti-Maoist
forces and on this basis for the unity and solidarity of the world commu-
nist and worker movement.
After the death of Ma,o Zedong in September 1976 the new leaders of China,~
ha,ving ma,de the policy directed at implement,ation of the goals declared
by him more ~i gid, decided to follow a~reat-power cha,uvinist courseo
_ "The new leadership of China,, unYortuna,tely, is following an old, I would
say worn out rut," stressed Genera,l Secretary of the CPSU Central Committee
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L.I. Breshnev in his anewers to questions f`rom the editor-in-chief of
the Japanese newapaper A3AHI. "Certainly it is a~~ct tha,t the campaign
of attacks on the policy oP detenteia continuing, obstacles are being put
in the way of ar~y measures in the area of diearmament. ,Or take the theais
of the battle against 'hegemon,q.' Perhaps someone does not see ar~ything
dangerous in this. But can it be that they are not trying under the
cover of this thesis to sow discord between the statea or, at least,
not to allow improvement in rela,tions between them" (129, 7 July 1977).
_ In his subsequent speeches L.I. Brezhnev stressed again and again the
h~etility of the position of the present Chinese lea,dera to the intereete
of the liberation atruggle of the peoplea of the world, "By their unprece-
dented i,mpertinent plunderous attack on a neighboring ,sma,ll country--
socia,list Vietnam--the present Beijing leaders ha,ve once and. for all
disclosed to the whole world the insidious, aggressive essence of the
great poWer, hegemonistic policy being fo~.lowed by them. Now evexyone
sees tha,t na,mely this policy at the p~esent time is the most serious -
threat to peace throughout the world," he declaxed in his speech at a
meeting with the voters on 2 March 1979 (23a).
~ua~ Ma,oism as an ideology arrl policy continues to exist. It has been
_ turned into a counter-revolutionary tendency and the theoretical struggle
aga,inst it remains one of the chief tasks of Marxist-Leninlst acience.
Very significant in the ~truggle against Ma,oism is the unma,sking of the
, anti-Marxist essence of its fab~ications rela.tive to the nature of the
world revolutionary process.
Aa a petty-bourgeois nactiona,listic tendency, Ma,oism distorts the nature
_ of evente taking pla,ce in the world, it gives an anti-Marxist interpre-
tation of the tendencies and prospects of the revolu~iona,ry atrugg?e. By
its interpretat3on of the essence of the world revolutiona,ryr process, by
its tactics in rela,tion to the revolutionary forces of modern times it is
attempting to make a schism in the ranks of the participants of the revo-
?utiona,ry atruggle anci to delay development of the world revolutionary
_ movement. As a result the conception of the world revolutionaYy process
in I~aoism is ca,lled upon the~oretically to 3ustif~r the great power na,tion-
alistic course of the Beijing leaders, to provide a foundation for their'
hegemonistic desires. Haoism thereby undermines the revolutiona,ry struggle
of the peoples of the world, closing ranks with ~he forces of world
_ imperialism on the grour~ds of a struggle with the revolutioria.ry movement.
Nowhere is the anti-Marxist content of Ma,oism exposed so openly as in _
those view which it attempts to contra,st to the Marxist-Leninist doctrine
regaxding questions of the revolutionary struggle of the peoples of the
world, nowhere is the position of Maoism deeply ho~tile to the goals of
the world revolutionazy movement revealed with such claxity as in its
theory and practice with respect to the basic revolutionary forces of modern
times. Reftxtation of the Ma,oist distortions of the essence of the
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,
- revolutiona,~.~r process, under the cloak of wnich the Maoists are carrying
~ on the undermining activity against the pa.rticipants in the libera,tion
movement, is thus a part of tha,t theoretical struggle which is being
~+aged. by representa,tives of Ma,.rxist-Leninist science in all countries '
~gainst Ma.oism, it is a conditionmaking it possible still more successfully
to develo~ Ma,rxist-Lenir.ist theory, consciously falsified by the Ma,oists.
, In the present work the author ha,s not set for himself the task of
- illuminating the whole complex of questions ensuing from the topic of
- study. A number of its aspects ha,ve alr~~ady been dealt ~rith in Soviet
literature. The goal of the present work is to set off the most essential
- elements of the Ma.oist falsification of the world revolutiona,ry process~
to give a gene.ra,l picture of the opposition of Ma,oism to ali revolutiona,ry
forcea of modem times, to ahow with individual examples the fundamental
hostility of the theoretical positions,advanced by the adherenta of Ma,oism~
to the interesta of f~irther expand.ing the front of the revolutiona,ry struggle.
_ Chronologica,lly the work covex~ the period from 1963 through 1976, when
the Maoist conception of world development was fina,l]tiy formulated~ when
the anti-Marxigt essence of the ideology an~d politics of Ma,oism with res-
pect to the world revolutiona,ry movernent was ma,nifested in ~11 far~ce.
Naturally the criticism of Ma,oist falsification of the motive forces anr3
the natrse of the revolutiona,ry process pertaining to this period i.s nat
the property of history. A critical ana,lysis of the ideologica,l-political
foundations of Maoism at this stage of its development is the starting
point for unma,sking the rea,ctiona,ry essence of the aims following which
the ideological, po litical and armed, struggle is being waged against the
revolut~r~ax~,~ forces of modern times by the present Chinese leadersh3p
as well.
Conclusion i
Examina,tion of the different asp~ct~ of Maoist falsification of the world
revolutiona,ry process indica,tes th~~t Ma,oism is an ideological-political
tendency which ha,s nothing in common with ~fazxisr~Len9,nism, tha,t Ma,oist
ideology is f`undamentally hcstile to all the revolutiona,ry Porces of -
mod.er times .
In coming out against korld socialism, a,gainst the interna,tiona,l commu-
nist and worker's movenent, unma,sking itself as a force which ,threatens
nationa,l-liberation revolutions, Ma,oism is striving to hold ~ack the
development of the revolutionary process, to hinder the expa,nsion of the
liberation struggle of the peoples of the world. The pett y-bourgeois ~
essence of Maoism, the a.n._ti-Ma.rxist nature of the "theories" pronounced.
by it ha,ve brought about the reactior~r content of this ideological-~
political tendency, dama,ging the whole world revolutiona,ry movement. -
" In the interpretation of the basic questions of the world revolutiona,ry
movement ar~i world development the Maoists openly side with the ideologists
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of the bourgeoisie, they advance conceptions used by bourgeois theoreti-
ciang in the struggle against Marxist-I,eninist idaology.
Maoism has entered the interna,tiona,l arena, as a force hostile to prole-
_ tarian interna,tiona,lism, to the interests of str.engthening the solidarity -
of workers throughovt the world in their liberation struggle.
In our time the significance o~ the internationa,list solidarity of the
interna,tiona,l communist and worker's movement, ma,nl.fested. in the unity of
socialist countries~ of comimuiist axLd worker pa,rties, in the support, by
them of na,tiona,l-~liberation movements, ha,s increased as never before.
Interna,tiona,list cooperation of the connm~nists of the world is a command
of the time, it is dictated by the increasing internationa,lization of the
_ p~oblems of world development, the interpenetra,tion of externa,l and
interna,l factors affecting the world revolutiona,ry process.
Namely tha,nks to the interna,tiona,list solidarity of all detachments of the
internationa,l comm~unist and worker's movement, tha,nks to the support given
by them to na,tional-liberation forces, the world revolutiona,ry movement
- has ha,d significant success recentlyo This also explains the constant
attacks of the bourgeois ideologists on the principle of prol~tarian
internationa,lism~ and their uncea,sing attempts to iu~dermine the inter-
na.tiona,list solida,rity of the interna,tiona,l communist and worker's movement,
In carrying out the constant a,ttacks on the principle of proletarian inter--
nationalism, the Bei.3ir.g leaders are pla,ying into the ha.nds of the forces
of rea,ction, they are joining with imperialism in its ba,ttle against the
world revolutiona,ry movement. Tr,e Maoist leadership sees in the policy
directed at undermining the internationa,list unity o.f the revolutionary
forces of modern times the most important means for weakening the inter-
nationa,l movement for social progress, aga,inst the threat of thermonuclear
~ wax, with the provocation of which it links the achievement of its
hegemonistic pla,ns.
The acute policies of the Maoists have always been directeci aga.inst the
socialist commonwealth as the lea,ding force of the interna,tiona,l front of
the anti-imperialist struggle, the ma.in support of the world revolutionary
movement. The Ma,oist leadership ha,s attempted to weaken the united front -
of the socialist countries, to introduce disagreements and splits in its
ranks, to set some countries of the socialist commonwea.lth against others. -
This goal ha,s been served. by the ldeological and political diversions
carried out by the Maoists aga,inst the countries of world socialism. In
pla,ce of Ma,.rxism-Leninism, which is the world outlook of the workers in
countries of the soci.alist commonwealth, the Beijing leaders ha,ve attempted
to foist on them the "ideas of Ma,o Zedong," hoping to weaken in this way -
the ideological basis of the svcialist interna,tiona,lism linking them, Not
the last pla.ce in the arsena,l of ideological weapons used by the Maoists
for urLdermining the principle o~' socialist internationa,lism is occupied
by the attempts to encourage na,tiona,listic tendencies in individua,l
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socialist cou:ztries, to promote the appearance in them of elements of
- na,tiona,l isolation in detriment to all-round. internationalistic relations.
The Maoists have constant],y falsified the na,ture of the activity of inter-
- state organizations of the socialist countries--the Council for Economic
I~utual Assistance and the Warsaw P~,et Orga,nization. Based on the principle
of socialist interna,tionalism~ these orga,niaations have made a larg9 contri-
bution to stren$thening the econoiqy and increasing the military might o~
the f~aterna,l countries, which ha,s allowed them successflzlly to withstand
the attempts of the forces of world imperialism to weaken the positions
~t' true socialism. By ascribing to these orga,nizations goals which ha,ve
nothing incommon with their true purpose, the Maoists ha,ved hoped to
introduce la,Ck of con~f'idence and a feeling of suspicion in the relations
bf3tween the socialist countries participating in these organizations.
This is also served by the foreign-economic policy of the Ghinese leader-
ship, which ha,s attempted. by granting certain benefits and priv3.leges to
some socialist countries to weaken the economic rela,tions existing
between them.
Maoism also comes forth as a force hostile to the principle of proletaxian
interna,tiona,lism with respect to the world worker's movement. The Ma,oists
attempt to estrange the working cla,ss of the world, to introduce into the
working environment attitudes of na,tiona,listic prejudice, and exclusivity.
Serving the cause of undermining the proletarian unity of the interna,tiona,l
working cla,ss are Maoist ideas about the in:evitability of conflicts between
the "]a,r~e" a~~ui the "sma,ll" nations, about the "superpowers~" supposedly
fighting for possession of world hegemor~y. These ideas are intended to
oppose the workers of ~some countries to others, to undermine the inter-
na,tiona.list solidaxity of the nationa,l detachments of the world proletariat.
A vivid indicator of the anti-interna,tionalist essence of Ma,oism~ staking
on splitting the forces of the world communist movement, is the hostile -
~,ction of Beijing with respect to the communist and worker pa.rties of
the capitalist countries, which are decisively rebu~fing the attempts
of the Ma,oist leadership to push them to reject the principle of prole-
tarian interna,tiona,lism. The goal of the undermining activity of the
- Ma.oists ha,s been the creation of an interna,tiona,l Maoist organization,
r~hich the Ma,oist leaders intended to place in opposition to the interna,tiona,l
communist movement. Beijing'ha,s constantly rendered. support to groups of
partisans of Maoism~ created outside of the borders of China,. Operating
in accordance with the ideological-politica,l principles of Ma,oism, these
groups ha,ve carried out uninterrupted. attacks on the true Ma,rxist-
I~eninist pa,rties, they ha,ve sla,ndered the USSR and other socialist countries.
In accordance with the policy of the Beijing . lea.ders for undermining the
interna,tiona,list solidaxity of the internationa,l working cla,ss, they ha,ve
~'ollowed a tactic calcula,ted. to estrange the workers of capitalist countries.
This tactic was steadfastl,y implemented. in Western E~arope, where under
the cond.itions of forma,tion of internation monopolies there is an intensive
_ movement of manpower, accompanied by the forma,tion of la,rge groups of
immigrant workers from among people of another na,tiona,lity. The Ma,oists
ha,ve attempted. to conduct a policy of splitting the ranks of the working
cla,ss according to the nationa,l chaxacteristic in the United Sta,tes as well.
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;
The anti-interna,tiona,liet ,eesence o~ ',,Ka,oism has also been ma,nifested in
the attitude of the Maoist leadership 'to the na,tiona,l-liberation movement.
~ Moreover, oonta,ined in the undermining of internal unity, of the inter-
na,tional relations of nationa,l-liberation forces, in their isola,tion from
the socialiet commonxealth and. the interna,tiona,l working class was the
main goal of the Bei~ing Ma,oiets, who were p]~,nning to uee the developing
countries for implementation o~ their own hegemonistic pla,ns. Advertiaing
for demagogic aims the asaistance to nationa,l-liberation movements, the
Maoista in fact have given support on~y to reactionary-na,tiona,liatic forces,
- the ideological and political pla,t~orm o~ which corresponded to the
foreign policy aime of the ~(aoiet leadership. Thie support wa,s aacompa,nied -
by an ap~n struggle againet the true na,tiona,l-libera~ion forces achieving
real nationa,l a,nd socia,l liberation of their peoples. So it was, for
instance, in Angola, where Bei3ing, having given assistance to the reac-
tiona,ry organizations, caane out against the libera,tion struggle of the
Angolan people, on the side of the forces of world rea,ction and racism.
The C.hinese lea,ders: i.~+ ha,s come out against the unity of the nationa,l-
liberation f5ront als in other zones of the na,tional-libe ration movement.
It has attempted to oppose ideological-political positions that are counter-
revolutiot~ary in their direction to the advanced, progressive ideology
faeding the national-liberation struggle.
An ob3ect of special concern on the part of the Chinese leadership was
the se~pa,ration of the national-liberation movement from world socialism -
and the internationa,l working class. The ma,in efforts of the Maoists were
. directed namely at achievemant o~ this purpose. The Maoists, etriving
to xeaken the attra,ctive force of true socialism in the eyes of the parti-
cipa,nts in the na,tiona,l-li'berat~on movements, distorted the essence of the
sta,te and political structure of the sacialist countries~ they tried to
der~y tY~e suoceseee attained in the oourse of communist construction by -
the workers of these countries~ and distorted the goals of the policy
~ollowed by the countries of the aocialist commonwealth with respect to
~he nationa,l libera,tion movements. In order to set the nationa,l-liberation
forces i,n op~osition to the internationa,l working cla,ss the Ma,oists
spread the concept, devoid cf class substance, about "poor" and "rich"
- nations ~ they ~tried to direct the anti-imperia,lis+. , sn+,i -r!f?1 nni n list
a'ti�.Lvings of the peopl.es of former colonial and dependent countries against
the workers ir~ capitalist countries. The striving to replace the prin-
ciple of ~oletarian internationa,lism with the petty-bourgeois policy of
forcing na,tionalism and racism tg a bePn graphically demonstza,ted in the
attitude of the Bei~ing leadership to the na,tional-liberation movement,
in its attempts not to pe~mit expanaion of interna,tiona,list cooperation
of na,tion~,l-liberation forces with world socialism and. the intern ~,tiona,l
working cla,ss .
The actions of the Beijing lea,de.rs who came to power after the death of
Ma,o Zedong were a new unm~sking of the Great Ha,n, na,tiona,listic essence
of Ma,oism, of its expa,nsionist aims in relation to other na,tions, its
pro-imperialist ideology and policy, counterrevolutionary in its content,
arHd which are the antipod.es of proletaxi~n .interna,tiona,lism. The armed
27
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aggression against the forces of socialism and nationa,l liberation in
Southeast Asia~ the support of reactiona.ry groups coming forth against
revolutionary changes in the countries of the Middle East, the disruption
of the agreement on fr~endship, alliance and mutua,l aid with the Soviet
Union and simultaneously with this the formation of a bloc on an anti-
Soviet, antisocialiat ba,sis with American imperialigm, the conclusion of
a treaty with Japan which ha,s an anti-Soviet leaning, and the expansion
of contacts with the aggressive imperialist NA~ bloc--these and other
actions of the present Beijing lea,ders axe a logica,l consequence of the
course selected. by them for continuing the Ma,oist line in foreign poli~:y
queations, a result of those ideologioal-theoxetical poeitions which they
inherited ~`rom Ma,oism.
- Thus, Ma,oism ha,s come forth on the interna,tiona,l axena as a force hostile
- to the id eology of proletarian interna,tiona,lism. Embodied in it the
world revolutionary movement ha,s its most evii oppcnent atte*apting to ~ -
retard the world 'revolutiona,ry process with a tactic calcula,ted. to
under~ne the interna,tiona,list unity of the revoluti~o.nary forces. This
bind.s the communists~ all fighters for social and na,tiona,l liberation to
wage a principled. struggle aga,inst the ideology of Maoism, and for the
I~arxist-Leninist ba,ses of unity of the world communist and worker's
movement, cemented by the Leninist principle of proletarian interna,tiona,lism.
COPYRIGHT: Gla,vnaya, redaktsiya vost~chnoy literatury izdatel'stvo
"Nauka," , 1979
10908
CSOt 1800
~
~
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~
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!
,
NATIONAL
REGIONAL FORECASTING OF POPULATION, ETHNIC PROCESSES
Leningrad IZVESTIYA VSESOYUZNOGO GEOGRAF`ICHESKOGO OBSHCHESTVA in Russian
No 5, 1979 pp 403-409
- [Article by B. M. Ekkel': "The Regional Population Forecast and Ethnic
Processes"]
[Text] One of the most important tasks where population geography is ac-
tively involved in a solution is the task of a long-range forecast for the
distribution of the nation's population. The forecasting of the population
which acts as a most important component in the spatial systems arising as
- a result of the interaction of natural conditions, the econor?~y and popula-
tion at present is assuming particularly important significance.
Considering that the aim of social production in a socialist.society ulti-
mately is the fullest satisfaction of all the needs of its members, as well _
as that the distribution of the population in the various parts of the
country has formed in the process of extended historical development and is
marked by a substantial. "conservativeness" of the most general features of
this distribution, a long-range forecast of~,the size of the population (and
particularly the labor contingents) to a significant degree wi.ll correct
the forecast for the development of the regional economies of the USSR.
This in no way plays down the significance and possibilities of planning
efforts on the optimum redistribution of the population between the regions '
of the country.
For forecasting the population of a region, a number of models can be used;
and these include a demographic model, a model of the migration balance and -
_ a model of the population's employment which directly establishes the rela-
tionship between the number of 3obs and size and structure of the population
It must be emphasized that the demographic model is the most constant,
"base" model, while the remaining models can have a more "flexible" nature, _
they are maxked by multivariance, and to a greater degree are complimentary -
to the demographic model. ~his emphasizes its determining role�for fore-
casting the already existing population of a region.
For constructing a forecast of the population in our multinational country
and its individual parts over an extended period, a substantial role is
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played by the census, by the ratio and distribution of the peoples populat-
ing it and the change in the characteristics of these peoples over time [5].
The forecasting of the national composition of the population of the nation
and its individual regions for the purposes of forecasting the population
per se, and the population as a component of the man--econorqy--nature sys-
te;n has particule,r importance for the following factors.
1. The various peoples are in different stages of a"demographic transi-
tion" [3], and this determines the various types of the natural movement of
the population, and, in turn, this influences the size of the nationalities,
_ the age-sex struc~ure, the size of the family, and so forth [5].
2. To a varying degree different peoples participate in migration proces-
ses. For this reason over the foreseeable future, the national composition
of the USSR population to a significant degree will influence tY!e possi-
bilities of the redistr~ibution of the population between the regions of the
country, particularly those with labor surplusses and labor shortages [10~.
3. As a result of the deepening pracess of the ethnic merging of the
peoples in the USSR, the number of nationally mixed families is growing, ~
and the indicators for the natural and mechanical movement for these fami-
lies, as well as their difference from the corresponding indicators for the
families of a uninational composition, still have not been given proper at- ~ ~
tention by the researchers.
k. A ma~ority of the types of human activity to one degree or another
possesses an ethnic cast, be it the labor skills and domestic features
which have accumulated historically in the ethnos, or tlie specific features
of the effect of the ethnos on natare [1,5], This, in turn, cannot help
but influence the nature of the long-range employment of the population and
the territorisl structure of the econoa~y, housing construction, the consump-
tion structure, and the specific.transformation and conservation of the en-
vironment in regions with a differing national composition of the popula-
tion. -
5. The guiding line of the paxty and government in nationality relation-
_ ships is the flourishing and merging of all the peoples of the USSR and
achieving the actual equality of peoples in all areas of state and cultural
construction. In this context, the placement and level of socioeconomic
development among the various peoples of our country for a.n extended time
to come will influence the distribution of centralized capital investments.
Undoubtedly, the designated factors cover only the most important aspects
which determine the necessity of forecasting the size, ratio and distribu-
tion of the ~oviet peoples.
In addition to the differences in the natural movement of the population and
the national composition of the migrants, the change in the national compo-
sition of the population in the different regions of the USSR is strongly
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influenced by ethnic processes (here and below in their narrow meaning, that
is, the processes leading ultimately to a change in the ethnic affiliation
of people). Let us examine in more detail the spatial aspects of these
processee directly linked with the territorigl features of the distribution
of ~he peoples and their quantitative relationships.
Interethnic contacts and the related ethnic processes have occurred with
varying intensity in all stages.of human history. As a rule, interethnic
contacts occur under the condition of a common or contiguous territory of
the interacting peoples. Two basic variations of the territorial inter-
action of peoples are distinguished: border and integral contact [8].
With a border contact there is an interaction of the peoples in the zone
of the ethnic border, and comparatively small groups of the peoples in con-
tact are involyed in the interaction. An integral contact arises with a
ma~or territorial shift of the peoples or their individual groups. The
ethnic contacts which develop as a result of such a territorial shift in-
volve large masses of the peoples in contact.
In our country both territorial varieties of interethnic contacts are widely
represented, and in a number of.instances they are superimposed one on the
other and are difficult to differentiate.
Under the conditions of multinational regions, it is essential to know the
direction and rate of occurrence of the ethnic processes depending upon the
ratio of the number of.peoples in contact and the level of "disperseness"
and the reciprocal penetration of the pe~ples "one with the other."
Let us examine a certain territorial unit in which there is an international
contact of ethnic group (A) with a surrounding people of different nation-
ality. For our purposes, it is most.suitable to divide the territory into
elementary cells of intensive population contacts (ETC) which are compre-
hensive regions having complete sets of the funetional subregions neces-
sary for the daily life and activitie~ of the adult working part of the in-
habitants [16]. Here we would assume that all the ethnic groups in the
studied territorial unit live mixed together, and the probability of the
es�ablishing of contact between any two individuels does not depend upon
their national affiliation. The first condition is best satisfied by the
large industrial cities and new cities which create "international centers."
The realizing of the second condition.is a question of the distant future,
and depends upon a weakening of the national aspect in the life of the popu-
lation, although a whole series of researchers even now has noted a tendency
toward its weakening. The established ETC are the operational units for the
regional forecast of the population, since for precisely these territorial
cells it is possible to construct balance models of population employment; .
the demographic and ethnic str.ucture of the population in the ETC (consider- ~
_ ing the long-range changes'"in its territory).are the real basis for the re-
maining types of forecast models. The most suitable for the ETC is the pro-
cedure proposed by ethno~raphers for calculating the theoretical probability
of the concluding of international mar.riages between the representatives of
different ethnoses [2~11] and which has already been tested out and amended -
in a series of research [ 6, 7, 14 -
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9
1.00 ~
1 _
0.80 ~ ~i
~
0.60
. , / ,
0.40 ~
~
0.20 ~~�~3
/
0 O.10 0.40 0.60 0.80 f.00 z '
Fig. 1. Theoretical probability of the establishing
of interethnic contacts for an ethnic group
depending upon its share in the population of a region.
All contacts in the region can be considered as 1.00. x--the share
or the ethnic group in the region's population; y--the share of
contacts of the ethnic group in a11 the contacts of the population
in the region; 1--the total number of contacts in the given ethnic
_ group, 2--intraethnic contacts, 3--interethnic contacts.
The designated studies were based on the notion that the theoretical proba- ;
bility of a combination of two independent phenomena equals the product of '
the frequencies of each phenomenon individually, that is, the product of the ~
share of bachelors of nationality i in a11 the bachelors of the region by .
the share of brides of nationality 3 in all~the brides of the same region
[2]. In practice we often do not have data available on the national affil- '
iation of those entering marriage, and the ethnic processes in no way caii
be reduced to ~ust the marriage and family contacts. Proceeding from this,
the thearetical probability of the establishing of interethnic contacts be-
tween the representatives of ethnic group (A), independently of their na-
tional affiliation, can be calculated as the product of the share of the
ethnic group (A) in the entire population of the E~C (PA) by the share re-
maining for the remaining population of the ETC (1.00 - Pp):B = Pp�(1.00 - PA).
_ For example, if the share of ethnic group (A) in the population of the ETC
is 0.35, then considering all the possible ethnic contacts in the region as
1.00, and the number of possible contacts of ethnic group (A) equal to 0.35,
we find the theoretical share of the interethnic contacts for ethnic group
(A): n.35�(1.00 - 0.35) = 0.2275�
The theoretical share of th,e intraethnic contacts of ethnic group (A) is
determined as 0.3500 - 0.2275 = 0.1225.'
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Fig. 1 traces the theoretically probable share of interethnic contacts for
ethnic group (A) depending upon its share in a region's population. The
curve for intraethnic contacts is described.by the equation yl = X2, and the
- curve of interethnic contacts is described by the equation y2 =-(x-0.5)2+
0.25, Where 0.00 ~ x.~ 1.00. The graph illustrates well the pattern that the
smaller the share of the ethnic group in the population of the ETC, the
greater the share of the contacts of this ethnic group which fa11s on the
surrounding foreign groups.
The obtained pattern cannot be used directly to postulate the results of
the ethnic processes, since in addition to the already indicated constraint
- conditions, among the ethnic groups in contact the sex and age composition
can not only vary significantly (this in principle cauld be eliminated in
examining the ratio of assumed bachelors ~nd brides), but also the result-
ing national composition of the population in the ETC is determined in two
stages: 1) the nationally mixed marriages, 2) the national self-
determination of children born in nationally mixed fa,milies.
.4 �
1.00
a
0.80 . ~
o.so '
. .
. .
. . ,
. ~
0.40 . � � ~
. . ,
. ~ ,
. ~
0.20 4 � ~
~ , ' f
.
0 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 t
Fig. 2. Ratio of theoretical probability and
actually occurring number of births in
nationally mixed fa.milies (Udmurt ASSR, Russians).
x--share of ethnic group in population of territorial cell;
y--share of births in nationelly mixed families; 1--theoretical
- probability of the birth.of~a child i.n a nationally mixed
Pamily, 2--administrative rayons, 3--cities.
But still, if the theoretical probability of the interethnic contacts iioes
not fully des~ribe the ethnic processes, it is significantly correlated
with them. As an illustration o~ the. above stated, let us examine the ratio
of the theoretical probability of the interethnic contacts and the actually
occurring share of the number of children born in nationally mixed femilies
among the children born for which at least one of the parents was Russian,
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in the rayons and large cities of the Udmurt ASSR (Fig. 2). Since each 10
youths of one nationality can create 10 nationally mixed families, but not
more than 5 uninational ones, the theoretical probability of birth in a
nationally mixed family will be calculated from the following formula: -
2-2X 100,
yA 2-x
where x--the share of the ethnic group (A) in the population of the region.
- Regardless of the existing dispersion of points on the graph and the signif-
icant deviation from the theoretical values, it is beyond dispute that the
actual number of births for Russians in the nationally mixed families in the
Udmui�t ASSR rather well correlates with the share of Russians in the popula-
tion of an administratfve rayon or city, and this applies particularly to
the large cities. The correlation dependence is most successfully described
by e second-order parabola. However, we assume that the actual dependence
ascertained on the basis of the ETC on a graph will be closest to a hyper-
bola with a symmetrical axis y= x. This reflects tY~e intensification of
the ethnic processes, when the share of the ethnic group in the population
ia either completely in.significant, or decisively predominates over the
share oP the foreign groups arouid (the processes of assimilation or assimi-
lating).
The nature of the foreign surroundings of a people also influences the
amount of the deviation of the actual frequency of births in nationally
mixed families from the theoretical probability of interethnic contacts,
in addition to the choice of the territorial cell for studying these con-
tacts. For considering the latter factor, using the concept of a"coeffi-
cient of desirability" of interethnic contacts could be of great signifi-
cance [6~~~11~, and this should be calculated for each pair of peoples in
a territorigl aspect.l This is a sub~ect of special reseaxch.
The concept of the theoretical probability~of interethnic contacts makes it
possible to approach another important problem, that is, assessing the com-
plexity or patchyness af the national composition of a region's population.
The concept of the patc2~yness index of national composition was for the
first time proposed by V. V. Pokshishevskiy [12], and of the works on the
constructing of a patchyness index for cities we could mention the article
of L. F. Monogarova [9]. We have used a patchyness index for the national
- composition of a region's population2 (in the ideal of the ETC) reflecting
lOne of the first statistical. indicators of this sort'is the indicPs of _
"attraction" and "aversion" of M. V. Ptukha [13), with wnich it is possi-
ble also to analyze ethnic contacts.
- 2Without considering the territory of contact under the name of the socio-
r
~ ~ (nr)'
f00, where n� the size of national
ethnic density in the form S= i�
group i, K--the nwnber of national groups, N--the size of the population
in the region, the index formulated by E. Piasecki in 1964 [17]�
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the theoretical probability of the interethnic contacts, if the intensity
of these contacts were caused solely by the ratio of the ethnic groups in
contact [15~
. .
~(fa~.~-- ~T~~
(a~
where M~--the patcY~yness index for the national composition of the popula-
tion of region
~ n--the number of ethnic groups living in region
ni--the share of ethnic group i in the total number of the population
living in region ~
_ Using the given patchyness index, it is possible to compare the level of
the multinationality of a population on different territories, and to ~udge
the patcY~}mese of the national composition of the population in the regions
over time. Moreover, using the patchiness index of the national composi-
tion of the population it is possible to compare the theoretical and practi-
cal spread of interethnic contacts within the limits of the ETC.
On the basis of the published materiels of the 1970 All-Union Census, we
have examined the ratio of the patcY~yness level of the national composition
of a population in the national-autonomous formations of the USSR with the
spread of nationally mixed fa.milies (Fig. 3). Regaxdless of a certain
hypothetical nature of the comparison made (the patchyness index and the
share of nationally mixed fa.milies are given not for the ETC, but rather
for the entire undivided territory of the national autonomous formation),
out of the aggregate of nationa.l autonomous formations we have selected
those where a significant portion of the population is comprised of repre-
sentatives of peoples which because of particular features of everyday life
and culture and the existing experience of international contact, as a rule,
take a rather active paxt in the various forms of interethnic interaction
up to including family and marriage relations. Thus, the northern and Far
Eastern~national=autonomous formations stand out in an increased share of -
nationally mixed families, and here the population has been formed predom-
inantly of migrants from the E~ropean portion of the country (Russians,
Ukrainians, Belorussians, peoples from the Volga Region, and others) and
_ representatives of the indigenous nationalities. At present, here there is
- occurring a process of the assimilation of the ethnic groups and a reduc-
tion in the values of the patchyness index of the national composition of
~the population [15~.
We assume that in constructing the regional population forecasts, th,e em- -
ployed demographic model can be broken up into a series of models according
to the nationality principle. The forecast of a region"s population should
consist of the population forecasts for the indivi~ual nationalities with
an obligatory subdivision into urban and rural inhabitants. This corres-
ponds to the differing types of the natural movement of the population.
The elaboration of the forecasts for the individual national groups re-
quires a thorough reorganizati~n of current statistical reporting and census
data ~hich to a maximum degree should be presented in an ethnic breakdown.
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,?N
~?1. ~ ' ~
C ~ h ~ 0.90 -
0.90
0.80
0.80
0.70
0.70
0.60
a so
~ 0.30 ~ ~
0.40
0.40
0.30 .
Q 30
QZO
0.20
~ Q10
0.10
0 -
D
M ~
C '
Fig. 3. i~atio of the patchyness level of the r~ational composition
of the population in the national-autonomous formations of the USSR
with the spread of nationally mixed fa.milies.
M--patchyness index of the national composition of the population,
C--the share of nationally mixed families in e11 families;
1--Jewish AO [Autonomous Oblast], 2--Karelian ASSR, 3--Khanty-
Mansi A0, 4--Komi ASSR, S--Chukchi NO [i~ational Okrug], 6--Karyak
N0, 7--Khakass A0, B--Nenets N0, 9--TaYnLVr N0, 10--Komi-Perrqyak_N0,
11--Yamalo-Nenets N0, 12--Etirenk N0, 13--Yakut ASSR, 1~+--South:
Ossetian A0, 15--Adzhexian ASSR, 16---Adygey A0, 17--Abkhas ASSR,
18--North Ossetian ASSR, 19--Gornyy Altai A0, 20--Bashkir ASSR,
21--Udmurt ASSR, 22--Nakhichevan ASSR, 23--Ust'-Ordynskiy N0,
24--Chuvash ASSR, 25--Buryat ASSR, 26--Mordvinian ASSR, 27--
Kabar3ino-Balkar ASSR, 28--Karachai-Cherkess ASSR, 29--Karakal.pak
ASSR, 30--Ka]lnyk ASSR, 31--Tuva ASSR, 32--Mari ASSR, 33--Tatar
ASSR, 34--Gornyy Badakhshan A0, 35--Aginskiy (Buryat) N0, 36--
Checheno-Ingush ASSR, 37--Degestan ASSR, 38--Karabau A0.
For the possibility of considering the results of ethnic processes in the
forecast (in 1970, 13.5 percent of' the families in the USSR were nationally
mj.xed, and this percentage was.sagnificantly higher among the families be- .
ing formed), it is essential to ~~rork out a special model of the ethnic
processes. In our axticle a po~?sible approach to constructing such a model
has been presented in a general;form.
We must particularly caution a~j~inst a mechanistic approach to analyzing
- ethnic processes. For simplif;fing the model, we have viewed them in the
narrowest sense. In actuality~ in addition to the "abrupt-shift" transition
I ,
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from one national affiliation to another, there are equally essential
"ethnoevolutionary changes in the ethnos" ([1], p 153). And the latter `
play possibly not such a marked role in changing the characteristics of
peoples, but over the long run the failure to consider them can to a sig-
nificant degree influence the accuracy of the forecast. In the ideal the
moael of ethnic processes, like a demographic model, should consider:
1) the processes of a weakening of national aspects in the life of the pop-
ulation (like the temporary strengthenings of these aspects at certain -
stages); 2) the spread of the features of the urban way of life and the
evening out of national features by them; 3) the reciprocal penetration of
the national cultures of the Soviet peoples and the selection of the par-
ticular features of everyday life and the economy which are most successful
for the existing social and natural milieu, and certain other aspects.
It is essential to point out that both in the migration model and to a great
degree in the model of population employment, the fixing of ethnic aspects
is also of substantial significance. At present, without considering the
national composition of the population, we cannot construct either a popula-
tion forecast or the particular forecasts of the natural movement of the
population, migration, urbanization, environmental conservation, and much
else.
BIBLIOGRAPh'Y
(1] Bromley, Yu. V., "Etnos i Etnografiya" [Ethnos and Ethnography],
Moscow, Nauka, 1973, p 283.
[2) Gantskaya, 0. A., Debets, G. F., "On the Graphic Depiction of Results
from a Statistical Survey of International Marriages," SOVETSKAYA
ETNOGRAFIYA, No 3, 1.966, pp 109-119.
~3] Kvasha, A. Ya., "Proble~Y Ekonomiko-Demograficheskogo Razvtiya SSSR"
[Problems of the Economic Demographic Development of the USSR],
Moscow, Statistika, 1974, 179 pages.
[4] Kovalev, S. A., "On a System of Forecast Models in Population Geogra-
phy," VESTN. MGU. SER. GEOGR., No 3, 1974, pp 31-36.
~~5~ Kozlov, V. I., "Dinamika Chislennosti Narodov (Metodologiya
Issledovaniya i Osnovny,ye Faktory)" [Population Dynamics (Methodology
of Research and Basic Factors)], Moscow, Nauka, 1969, ~?06 pages.
[6] Kozenko, A. V., Monogarova, L. F., "Statistical Study of the Indica-
_ tors of Uninational and Mixed Marriage in Dushanbe," SOVETSKAYA
� ETNOGRAFIYA, No 6, 1971, pp 112-119. ~
[7] Kucheryavenko, N. N., "On the Question of Studying International Mar-
_ riages in the Right Ba.nk Regions of the Tatar ASSR," GEOGRAFICHESKIY
SBORNIK, Kazan', No 4; 1969, pp 112-118.
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COPYRIGHT: Izdatel'stvo "Nauka", "Izvestiya Vsesoyuznogo geograficheskogo
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;
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