JPRS ID: 9024 USSR REPORT METEORLOGY AND HYDROLOGY NO.11, JANUAY 1980

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: JPRS
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
• Release Decision: RIF
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 196
• Document Creation Date: November 1, 2016
• Sequence Number: 17
• Content Type: REPORTS

APPROVE~ FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-R~P82-00850R0002000700'17-4
ME ~ ~ ~

8 RPRIL 1980 N0. 1, JRNURRY 1980 1 OF 2
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
F'OR OFFIC[AL USE ONLY
JPRS L/9024 -
S April 1980
USSR Re ort
p
METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
,
No. 1; January 1~980
~B~s FOREIGN BROADCAST 1NFORMATION SERVICE -
~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
NOTE
JPRS publications contain informatYon pr?.marily from foreign
. newspapers, periodicals and books, but also from news agency -
transmissions and broadcasts. Materials from foreign-language -
sources are translated; those from English-language sources _
are transcribed or reprir_ted, with the original phrasing and
other characteristics retained. ~
Headlines, editorial reports, and material enclosed in brackets
[J are supplied by JPRS. Processing indicators such as [Text]
- or [Excerpt] in the first line of each item, or follo~~ing the
last line of a brief, indicate how the original informa.tion was
processed. Where no processing indicator is given, the infor-
mation was summarized or extracted.
Unfamiliar ,ames rendered phonetically or transliterated are
enclQSed in pare~~;heses. Words or names preceded by a ques-
_ tion mark and enclosed in parentheses were not clear in the
original but have been supplied as appropriate in context.
Other unattributed parenthetical notes within the body of an
item originate with the source. Times within items are as
give-~ by source.
- The contents of this publication in no way represent the poli-
c ies, views or at.titudes of the U.S. Government.
For further information on report content
call (703) 351-2938 (economic); 3468
(political, sociological, military); ?.726
(life sciences); 2725 (phyaical sciences).
COPYRIGHT LAWS AND REGULATIONS GOVERNING OWNERSHIP OF
MATERIALS REPRODUCED HEREIN REQUIRE THAT DISSEMINATION -
OF THIS PUBLICATION BE RESTRICTED FOR OFFICIAL USE OidLY.
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
JPRS L/9024
J
8 April 19 80
USSR REP~RT
METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
No. 1, January 1980
Selected articles from the Russian-language journal METEOROLOGIYA
I GIDROLOGIYA, MosCOw.
CONTENTS PAGE
Water Vapor and Precipitation Budget in Synoptic Formations in the Temper-
_ ate Latitudes
(T. P. Kapitanov and N. Z, Pinus) 1
Chaice of Decisions With the Availability of Forecasts With Different
Validity Times
(Ye. Ye. Lhukovskiy) 10
Evaluation of the Stage of Development of a Cumulus C?~+.:i
(G.~N. Nikitina and G. I. Skhirtladze) 25
Features of Ozone Distribution With Entry of Southerly Cyclones Into the
European USSR
(L. A. Uranova) 34
Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Remot~ Sensing of the Geopotential
Field Over the Norther.n Hemisphere
(A. Ya. Kazakov and 0. M. Pokrovskiy) 43
Calculating the Zone of Clearing from a Linear Heat Source in Clouds -
(A. S. Kabanov and M. M. Troyanov) 57
Irregularity of. the Earth's Rotation as Possible Indices of Global Water
_ Exchange
(N. S. Sidorenkov) 65
Evaluation of Pararaeters of a Completely Broken Wave Flow
(B. A. Shu~yak) 76
-a- [III -USSR- 335&TFOUO]
FOR AFFICIAL U5E ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
CONTENTS ~Continued) Page
Influence of Turbulence and Bottom Relief on the Dynamics of Currents
in the Black Sea
(Ye. V. Stanev, et al.) 88
Aerial Gau~ma Survey of the Snow Cover in Mot~ntains
(M. V. Nikiforov) 98
Structure and Reformation of Sand Ridges
(A. A. Levashov) 107
Influence of Agrometeorological Conditions on the Wintering of .
_ Perennial Leguminous Grasses in the Central Reg;ons of the
_ European USSR -
(A. I. Strashnaya) 113
Determining the Mean Slope of a Drainage Basin
(D. M. Kudritskiy) 123
Attenuation of Radiation in the Window of Relative Atmospheric
Transpa~ency 8-13 � m
(V. N. Aref'ye~.) 126
Foi~mulation of the Principles of Hydrology and the Dynamics of Channel
Flows in the Publications oF M. A. Velikanov
(~I. M. Arkhangel'skiy, et al.) 154
Review of Monogr~ph by A. I. Fal'kovich: Dinamika i Energetika Vnutri-
tropicheskoy Zony Konvergentsii (Dynamics and Energy of the Intpr-
tropical Convergence Zone), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1979
(M. A. Petrosyants) 164
Concerning the Review of S. G. Rustamov and S. Ni. Fleyshman of the
Collecti~n of Articles "Selevyye Potoki" ("Mudflows") (Moscc,w,
Gidrometeoizdat, 1976)
(V. P. Mochalov, et al.) 167
Sixtieth Birthday of Mikhail Ivanovich Budyko 172
Seventieth Birthday of Aleksandr Khristoforovich Khrgian 174
Eightieth Bithday of Aleksandr Boleslavovich Kalfnovskiy 177
Notes on Activities at the USSR State Committee on Hydrometeorologq~ and
Environmental Monitoring
(A. V. Kolokol'chikov) 180
- b -
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
CONTENTS (Continued)~ P~,;e
Conferences, Meetings and Seminars
(L. G. Zastavenko and L. A. Chubukov) 182
Notes from Abroad
- (B. I. Silkin) 186
_ - c -
~
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
- FOR UFFICIAL USE ONLY
� PUBLICATION DATA
J
English title ; METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
Russian title ~ METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA
Author (s) ;
Editor (s) : Ye. I. Tolstikov
Publishing House : Gidrometeoizdat
Place of Publication : Moscow
Date of Publication : January I980
Signed to press ' : 25 Dec '9
Copies � 3700
COPYkIGHT : "Meteorologiya i gidrologiya," -
- 1980
~ - d - ' -
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
- FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
UDC 551.(515.1:577.1)
_ WATER VAPOR AND PRECIPITATION BUDGET IN SYNOPTIC FORMATIONS IN -
THE TEMPERATE LATITUDES
_ Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 80 pp 5-11
[Article by Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences T. P. Kapitan-
ova and Professor N. Z. Pinus, Central Aerological Observatory, submitted
for publication 4 July 1979]
_ Abstract: The article presents the results of
investigation of the moisture reserves and
water vapor budget under cyclonic and anticy-
clor,..~c conditions observed in a polygon with
an araa of 4�1011 m2 wi'th its center at Perm'
(December 1973 and November-December 1977).
- The authors evaluate the role of horizontal
and vertical transfer and phase transforma-
tions in the water vapor budget. It is shown
that on the basis of computations of the water
vapor budget it is possible to make satisfactory
quantitative estimates of steady precipitation
over an area with the passage of cyclonic forma-
- tions.
jText] In our study j2] we presented the results of investigation of the
water vapor budget and energy of phase transformations in a deep cyclone
penetrating into the European USSR from the northwest. It was shown that
the maximum water vapor reserves during all stages of its evolution are
contained in the layer 850-800 mb; the maximum in the vertical profile of
r.wisture reserves is more clearly expressed the greater the total moisture
content. An important role in the water vapor budget of a cyclone is play-
ed by horizontal transfer and vertical redistribution associated with. the
transport of water vapor from the boundary layer into the higher layers _
of the atmosphere. In the central part of the cyclone the leakage of water
vapor into the higher layers is essentially compensated by an inflow of
water vapor through the lateral boundaries. The inflow of water vapor is
expended primarily in condensation with a maximum in the layer 800-600 mb.
In the layer P~-fi00 m& on the s~outtiern periphery of the cyclone there is a
leakage of water vapor due to horizontal advection; vertical redistribution
1
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
and condensation processes are more weakly expressed. In general, as indi-
cated by computations, in the central part of a cyclone the local changes
are less than 10% of the budgez, advection and vertical redistribution is no
more than 40% and about 50% is attributable to changes related to con-
_ densation processes. On the cyclone periphery the main contribution is de-
termined by local changes and condensation processes.
- In this paper we give the results of study of the ~:a~zr vapor budget in
different parts of cyclones and anticyclones ~oserved in a fixed region
in a polygon (Kazan' - Ufa - Sverdlovsk - Ivdel' - Syktyvkar - Kirov -
Kazan' with its center at Perm') during the periods from 12 through 24
December 1973, from 11 through 17 November and from 1 through 9 December ~
1977. The area of the polygon in wfiich the Central Aerological Observatory
over a period of years has been carrying out flight investigations of atmo-
~pheric energy and turbi:lence is aprroximately 4�1011 m2.
As in j2J, use was made in the computations of an equation describing the
water vapor budget in the atmosphere.
~ dX =,~--v �qvdX + f dp a:i - (4R-4x) dX+ (1) -
where -f- f Dy dX,
J dX - gs J.`f dx dy dp.- -
[K = condensation; N = evaporation]
where q is specific humidity, v is the wind velocity vector, p is pressure,
w is the vertical component of wind velocity in a p coordinate system, g
is the acceleration of free falling, Qcon is the rate of water vapor con-
densation, qevap is the rate of evaporation, S is the area of t:~e base of
a column of the atmosphere,
~ x -f- y .
The term at the left in expression (1), which we will denote by qt, describ-
es the rate of local change in the content of water vapor in a column of
the atmosphere with an area of the base S and the height p2 - pi; r_he first
term on the right ~nhor~ is the rate of change in the content of water vapor
as a result of advection through the lateral boundaries of a column of the
atmosphere; the second on the right (qVer) is the rate of change as a re--
sult of the vertical redistribution of water vapor; the third on the right
(q o) is the rate of change in water vapor content as a result of the total
. effect of "condensation minus evaporation" of urater vapor (e~fective con-
densation), the fourth on the righ.t is the total rate of turhulent and dif-
fusion transfer of water vapor.
All the elements of equation (1) were computed for layers of equal air mass
with a thickness Q p= 50 mb in a column of the atmosphere from the earth's
surface (Pe) and to p= 5Q mia. Averaging of the elements in (1) was carried
out by integration in area, wIiere as the elementary areas dS we used all
2
FOR OF~ICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
six triangles making up the polygon. In admissible cases the integration
in area by means of the Ostrogradskiy-Gauss theorem tiaas replaced by in- ~
tegration along the polygon perimeter.
Vertical velocities were computed on the basis of pZane divergence from
the cuntinuity equation. It was assumed in the computations that w= 0 at _
ttie surface of the earth and at the upper level p= 50 mb.
In order to decrease the influence of errors caused by both the computa-
tion method and by errors in the measurement of ineteorological elements
we introduced corrections using the formulas cited in ~5]. It was assumed -
that the computation errors increase linearly with altitude and the cor- _
rection was carried out in such a way that the integral of divergence in -
the entire investigated layer is equal to zero.
Radiosonde data were used in computing all the terms in expression (1) ex-
cept the terms q~ and D, the sum of which is denoted by The Q value
~~as obtained as the res~dual term in expression (1). If it is assumed
that Dq is small and the errors in radiosonde measurements and computa-
tions of the budget element~ on an electronic computer are also small,
tlie Q value represents the total effect of the processes of condensation
(sublimation) of water vapor and evaporatio.l of cloud particles and pre-
cipitation particles in the considered volume. The L~ value will be posi-
tive in the case of a predominance oz the processes of evaporation or
negative in the case of a predominance of condensation (sublimation) of
caater vapor processes.
The assumption of a minor role of turbulence and diffusion of water vapor
in the budget and especially the assumption of a small role of errors in
r~easurements of ineteorological elements j.s, to be sure, extremely app rox-
imate.
- Ir. order to evaluate the value and nature of the dependence of the water
- vapor budget components on errors in initial data, we carried out a numer-
ical experiment. In particuiar, superposed on the initial radzosonde data
were the disturbances Xf b X(X is any meteorological e.lement) of a differ-
ent charactet and in different combinations (for a wind velocity V, wind
direction d, temperature t, relative humidity v we took the mean values of
the errors in measurements in accordance with [1]). Tabl~ 1 gives the rela-
tive error of the /.S value; it, like the residual term in equation (1),
contains errors of all the budget elements. As a standard we used the Q -
value, which was computed without superposing the disturbing values.
As we see, the relative error is maximum when the disturbances are super-
posed on all the meteorological elements forniing the water vapor budget.
With altitude the errors increase, as do the errors in measurements.
In particular, we should note the influence of errors in measurements of
~~ind direction in the layers~ 600-400 and 400-200 mb. These large errors
_ can exert a substantial influence on the results of computations of the
3
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
horizontal fluxes of water vapor, playing a major role in the water vapor
budget. On the average, the relative error is approximately 10%. An an-
cilysie of the results of the numerical experiment indicated that the meas-
urement errors have little influence on the results of investigations of "
- the g~neral patterns of changes of elements in the water vapar budget.
Table 1 Table 2
Relative Error Q(%) Synoptic Situations
A ~
~ F _
�C1ION, x
~ ~
a, a ~
1 .K6 = M ~2 b
� v +I ~O
~ ~ y ~ r'oA A B
I I I ~ I E I Il
400-200 22 2 39 12 12
1973 7 19 26 30
~600--400 23 2 16 2 5
1977 8 8 4 .40 14
800-600 3 4 6 0 2
3 P,-800 G 11 2 2 2
}:EY : P.-~00 I6 ~ 16 4 5 -
~ 1. Layer, mb
2. All elements disturbed
3. Pe
, ~eaN6/ctx ~b / s ec .
3 10''a~ ~ sec"1
, .qp~
2 ~~J'i ~ .
i ~ i'~,
~ ^ j ?'l, � ~ ~ ?
i ~ 1 Z i ~ : ~ ~ ~ .
' ~ . ~ ~
~ 4~ 9 0 ZO1 ? 1019011P 4D?�Z 02' ~ 14 0 014 ~ 2014 11014 1014 012014
-1 ~9 ~ ~ ~112 ~ 11 p 19 ~\,L`i 17-`~ 16~~ 15 ~ 14� ~ 1J
, ~ i ~ ~
-1 ` i ~ ~ ~_i
,J Qy/
Fig. 1. Divergence in layer Pe - 600 mb (1) and vertical velocity in layers
Pe - 600 mb (2) and 600-200 mh (3).
' Now we will examine the synoptic situation in the polygon, which experienced
substantial changes during the investigated per:iods. On the basis of an anal-
- ysis of surface synoptic charts and pressure pattern charts all the ob- -
served atmospheric processes were assigned to four characteristic situa-
~ions: A) frontal part of cyclone, B) southern part of cyclone, C) frontal
wave, E) combination of situations A, B and C, D-- the periphery of an ~
anticyclone. In order to refine the nattire of the synoptic situation we used
the results of computations of kinemstic characteristics (divergence, ver-
tical velocity, vorticity) on an electronic computer.
4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Table 3
Total Water Vapor Content (W) in Synoptic Formations in TempErate Latitudes
_ (kg/m2) and Standard Deviation O"q (kg/m2)
roA c ~o~,
,~6 I~ I a I c I E n wE i~o
I I
1973, a1I 3 P,-50 8,b 7,4 - 8,0 ~~5 1,55
Pa-600 6,8 6,0 - 6,4 4,4 I,~p
1977. P,-SO 9.9 10,2 IO,Q IO,Q 6,6 1,52
al-XII P,-600 8,1 8,7 8,3 8,4 ~,4 1,56
' 1973 oy 1,2 1,8 - - 1~
1977 oQ 2,1 2,8 2,8 - 1,~ _
KEY:
1. Year -
2. Layer, mb
3. Pe
In the analysis we excluded cases when it was hard to decide if the polygon
- was situated on the periphery of a cyclone or the periphery of an anticy-
clone. Tlie number of computed cases for each situation was determined by
the number of soundings during the particular period.
Table 2 gives data on the number of cases for each of the synoptic situa-
tions observed in the polygon.
r'igure 1, as an example, shaws the changes in divergence and vertical vel~-
city abserved in the atmospheric layer Pe - 600 mb over the polygon during
the period 12-24 December. .
In Fig. 1 we see that the computed kinematic characteristics have a wavelike
character ,aith a period of about 2.5 days. On days ~rhen the polygon was
under the influence of cyclonic activity (12, 13, 15, 21, 23 December) there
c~as a convergence of flow and ascending movements with a velocity of about
2�10'3 mb/sec; on 16 and 22 December, when there was a well-expressed ridge
in the neighborhuod of the polygon there was divergence and descending move-
ments with a velocity of ahout 2�10-3 mb/sec.
Table 3 gives the total water vapor cont~nt in a unit air col~n for the lay-
ers Pe - SQ mh and Pe - 6~~ mb for different synoptic groups and also the
standard deviations (.6q) for the layer Pe - 6~0 mb. Althougil the cases for _
which the computations were made c~ere feu~ in numTier, the O~q value does not
exceed 30%. The cited mean water vapor reserves can be considered satisfac-
tory.
' S
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
- Table 4 `
Water Vapor Budget in Synoptic Formations in Temperate Latitudes (10-2 g/
(m2�sec)) and Energy of Phase Transformations (W/m2)
1977 r. 1973 r.
Cno~. I
x6 1 9~ I 9r ~ 9e ~ ~ I em~w~4 9t ( 9r2 ~ 4a3 I. ~ I ernf.KZ 4 _
~
P,-800 0,40 2,87 -1,30 -1.10 27,59 0,95 1,72 -0,96 0,2G -5,02
A5 800-fi00 O,OJ 1,~5 -0,01 -1,7~ 43,89 0,65 1,98-0,12 -1,23 30,85
~ 600--400 -0,02 0,98 i,20 -2,19 54,92 -0,22 0,68 0,9i -1,88 47,15 `
P,-400 0,53 ~,70 -O,ll -~,03 126,40 1,38 4,38 -0,11 -2,93 72,95 _
P,-800 -0,97 2,5U-1,40-2,10 52,67 -0,01 0,47-0,32-0,17 4,26
B 800-600 -0,85 0,86 0,96 -2,66 66,71 -1,20 -1,51 0,16 0,16 -4,01 _
600-400 -0,12 -0.62 0,30 0,20 5,02 -0,32 -0,27 U,41 -0,45 i1,2S
p,-~kp0 -1,9~ 2,74 -0,14 �-4,56 114,36 -1,53 -1,31 0,'l5 -0,46 11,54
P,-8QJ -0,16 2,70-2,10-0,76 19,09 - - - - -
- 800-~600 -0,21 0,30 1,50 -2,O1 50,41 - - - - -
G 600-400 -0,14-0,5Q 0,57-0,21 5.27 - - - - -
P,-400 -0.51 2,50 -0,03 -2.98 74,77 - - - - - -
pa-800 -O~U8-0,68 0.22 0.36 -9,03 0,24-0,~~6 1.10-0~29 ?~27
D 800-G00 -0,04 - 0,15 U,24 -0,13 3,26 1,03 0,27 -0,14 0,91 -22,82 -
600-400 -0.05-0,15-0,34 0,4-4=11,04 -U,67 1,03-U,73-0.94 23,58
P,-400 -0, i7 -0,98 0,12 0,67 --16,80 O,tiO 0.74 O,I8I-0,32 8,02
KEY :
1. Layer, mb
2' qhor
= 3' q e
4. wYm~
5. Pe
Data in Table 3 show that the total water vapor content varies in the range
from 6 to 10 kg/m2 and almost 80% of this qu3ntity is in the layer Pe - 6Q0 -
mb. The water reserve in cyclonic situations (group E) on the average is
1.5 times greater than in anticyclon~c situations (group D). _
The data on the ful~. moisture content give some idea concerning the supplies
of latent heat; in cyclones it falls in the range (15-22)�106 J/m2 in the
atmospheric co?.umn Pe - 600 mb and in anticyclones (10-15)�106 J/m2. _
Now we will proceed to an examination of the water vapor budget. Table 4
~ives quantitative estimates of components of the ~,rater vapor budget for all
the c,~nsidered synoptic situations. They show what factors are responsibl.e
for the replenishment of water vapor supplies, at what levels the greatest
moisture exchange occurs and what the energy of pha~e transformations is.
In the water vapor hudget an important role is played by horizontal ttansfer
through the lateral boundaries (qhor)� In the frontal part of the cyclone
(group A) a horizontal influx as a result of convergence of the main flow
6
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/48: CIA-RDP82-44850R000200074417-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
is observed in the layer Pe - 400 mb; in the southern part of the cyclone
~ind in the .frontal wave region in the layer Pe - 600 mb the horizontal
- transfer decreases with altitude. The transport of water vapor into the
~ higher layers takes place primarily from the layers Pe - 600 mb in ~roup
A and Pe - 800 mb in groups B and C.
allaz~.ce!r)
r
4~Z~ 8/ ~m2. sec)
I
O,ABI-
; .
~
~ 0,09 ~ ~ -
~ ~ ~
~ � ~ Z~
/ ` ~ ~A . ~ F._ ~ . ' .
~ 1014 C'?fi-_~4'Jc 'fy 0210-14-Od~Z21~' 2.1014 D' 14 1�20 9C2201k 70140?� 1 12D ~~2 4
Z4 ZJ .~2 21 20 ,;9~ 11
B 17/ 16 ~1~~ 1'f V
13
_ .Q~y \J
- I . � ~
Fig. 2. Horizontal transfer of water vapor in the layer Pe - 600 mb (1) and
vertical transfer in the layers Pe - 600 mb (2) and 600-200 mb (3).
~ Mh/cym ~/day f
4r _ ~
h
` . -
. ~I . � ~ L i
% Z 1 ~
~ ' ` ;i
1 ~ 1 ~ ~ ~ ~ i
1 ~ ~ i ; ~ ~ i .
~ i ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
0 70~ p~~ 14 Pl~ 1D140110J40110f4 07~i0??0140d 140Z10 40Z2014
1 � ~ a u ,`a s~ fo ~'`;fA'"~'l,%' _'~3~':'~"iz
_ ~ ~
'Jpc~s ,n0 -iJ~ !IO �9u -4 1J7 -4 184 -1 180 -9 106 1 11D -1~OS1 J 11J �1?s 01f -11~040
' f.f ~~i J ~p~01 jj p'~ y~A~ 9sD. 9~E: ~ S~'~ ~T
~ 7~E ~94~ r~0
s 1~D
.it e~ �10100 -~S -3 J00 6_~00 d00 sJOD "J 600 ~J00 000
~
Fig. 3. Measured (1) and computed (2) quantities of precipitation during per-
iod from 12 through 24 December 1973.
The nature of the horizontal and vertical transfer of water vapor can be seen
more clearly in Fig. 2, where as an illustra3tion we have shown their change
in this poly~on area during the periad from 1~ through 24 December 1973.
In particular, on 15 December 1973, witli approach of a warm front to the ~
polygon region, on the qhor curve there is a pronounced maximum ~9hor ~ 0.12
7
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
_ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
g/(m2�sec)). At the same time there is transport of water vapor into the
l~igtier laye~s (q~ > 0.02 g/(m2~sec)). As a result of the processes in the
layer 600-400 mb there was a local decreas.e in moisture reserves. In
groups A, B, C there was predominance of processes of water vapor conden-
~ sation over evaporation processes < 0) and the energy of phase trans-
Formations in the layer Pe -/+00 mb on the average attained 70-125 W/m~.
Un the periphery of an anticyclone and in the region of high-pressure
- ~ridges (for example, 16 and 22 December) there was transport of water ~
vapor through the lateral bou;~daries, especially in the atmospheric boun-
dary layer, and the transport of water vapor from the higher layers (400- -
600 mb) into the lower layers (Pe - 800 mb) was a result of the descend- -
ing movements occurring here.
The computations whzch w~ made on the basis of the data cited in Table 4
show tha+- 80-85% of the L1 value, heing to a definite degree a quantitative
evaluation of effective condensation of water vapor, for the frantal part
_ of cyclones (A) and the region of the frontal wave (C) was formed due to
an influx of water vap~r from ar. outer source through the lateral boundar-
ies of the atmosi:heric layer a:~d only 20-15% due to existing characteris-
tic moisture supnlies. Thus, in the p~~~esses of natural condensation of
water vapor transpiring in the mentioned syn~ptic formations there was
virtually no entrainment of water vapor supplies. However, on the southern
periphery of the cyclone (B) only 35-40% of the Q value was associated
with the horizontal ~tnflux of water vapor. We note that ac~ording to [2],
in the central part of a cyclnne, in its development stage, t35-90% of the ~
Q value was formed due to latE+ral influxes of water vapor; in the central
part of a cyclone, but in the filling stage, and on its southern periphery
in the development stage, and in the filling stage 80-100% of the ~ val-
ue was associated with a decrease in moisture supplies.
~ comparison of the results indicates a universality of the conclusions
which we drew in [2] about the peculiarities of the water vapor budget
in cyclonic formations i:~ the temperate latitudes.
It is of particular interest to examine the matt~x of use of data on the
water vapor budget for estimating the mean quanti~_y~of precipitation fall-
ing on the polygon. The residual term in expression (1) with small D val-
ues and measurement errors characterizes the effectiv~ quantity of con-
densing moisture (condensa.tion minus evaporation). In this case it can be
postulated that the value of the effectively condensing moisture must be
� close to the quantity of precipitation falling in the observation region. -
Figure 3 shows the quantity of precipitation measured in the precipita-
tion gage network of the polygon during the period from 12 through 24
llecember 1973 and the quantity of precipitati.on computed for this period
on the basis of the residual *erm (1. We see that the agreement between
- these cunres is entirely satisfactory. The maximum quantity of precipita-
tion was observed on days when the polygon was under the influence of
. 8
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
,
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
cyclones (13, 14, 21 and 23 December 1973). The existing quantitative dif-
ferences betw~en the measured precipitation and the precipitation comFu+ted
from the water vapor budget can be the reault of b~th an inadequately
precise dete:mination of precipitation in the rain-gaging network and its ~
- low density, as well as (negative precipitation values) a result of nonal-
lowance for "subgrid" processes in the budget equat~on, errors in calcula-
tions and errors in aerological data~ The high correlation between the meas-
ured and computed quantittes of precipitation are in good agiAement with
the results of similar ccmgarisons published in j3, 4, 6]. The best agree-
nient between the computed and measured precipitation was obtained in j3]~
which gives data for comparative purposes for a region with a dense net-
work of precipitation gages (1 precipitation gage per 10 km2).
An analysis of the results shows that an increase in precipitation is es- _
sentially associated with the horizontal influx of moi~ture in the lower
half of the troposphere. We feel that data on the water vapor b udget can
be used for estimating the mean quantity of steady precipitation over an
area for differcnt practical applicationa.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. NABLYUDENIYA NA GIDROMETEOROLOGICHESKOY SETI SSSR. OPREDELENI~E PONYA-
TIY GIDROMETEOROIAGICHESKIKH ELEMENTOV I QTSENKA TOCI~IId~JSTI NAHLYUDENIY
(Observations in the TJSSR Hydrometeorological Network. Definition of
~Perms for Hydrometeo.rological Elements and Evaluation of the Accuracy
of Observations), Leningrad, GIMIZ, 1970.
2. Pinus, N. Z., Kapitanova, T. P., "Water Vapor Budget and Energy of
Phase Tr~nsformations in a Cyclone in the Temperate Latitudes,"
- METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology and Hydrology), No 10, 197F,.
- 3. Akiyama, T., "Southerly Transversal Moisture Flux into the Extreme:ly
Heavy Rainfall Zone in the Baiu Season," J. METEOR. SOC. JAPAN, Vol
53, No 5, 1975.
a
4. Bsvedeka.r, S. N., Mooley, D. A., "Computation of the Average Precipit-
ation Over the Weatern Part of Peninsular India During the Summer Mon-
_ soon from the Continuity Equation for Atmospheric Water Vapour,"
TELLUS, Vol 30, 1978.
5. Chien, H., Smith, P. J., "On the Estimation of Kinematic Parameters in
the Atmosphere from Radiosonde Wind Data," MON. WEATHFR REV., Vol 101,
No 3, 1973. -
6. Saha, K. R., Bavadekar, S. N., "Water Vapour Budget and Precipitation
Over the Arabian Sea During the Northern Summer," QUART. J. ROY.
METEOROL. SOC., Vol 103, 1973.
9
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY -
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
~ .
UDC 551.509.314
CHOICE OF DECISIONS WITH THE AVAILABILITY OF FORECASTS WITH DIFFERENT
VALIDITY TIMES
M~oscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 80 pp 12-23
[Article by Candidate of Technical Sciences Ye. Ye. Zhu~ovakiy, Agrophys- `
ical Inetitute, submitted for publication 3 May 1979]
Abstract: The author examines the problems in-
~ volved in the adoption of economically optimum
decisions with the availability of ineteorolog- _
ical forecasts which become more precise with ~
time. The article includes a detailed study of
the "climatological information - alternative
forecasting" and "forecasting with a long val- -
idity time - forecasting with a short validity
time" situations. It proposes a method for geomet-
rical interpretation of the results using opti-
mali.ty criteria making possible quite simple _
determination for each user of the best economic
strategy and formulation of sound requirements
on ~rognostic information.
[Text] General principles. The principles of the economic approach to
the problem of optimum use of ineteorological forecasts were already
laid in the 1930's by M. A. Omshanskiy [9] and were further developed
in a whole series of later investigations [1, 7, 8, and others]. A re-
sult of these studies was solution of a brozd range of problems direct-
ed to increasing the effectiveness of use of ineteorological information
in the control of the economy [5]. However, it must be noted that vir- `
tually all the problems considered to this time have had in a certain
sen~e a static character and have pertained exclusively to those situa-
tions when the choice af economic alternatives was made by the user in
one time interval. At the same time, it is possible to cite many examples
when the pracess of adoption of a decision is more complex and is very
closely related to the time factor. Indeed, the most common situation en-
countered is that which can be arbitrarily called an "either-either" sit-
uation. The essence of this situation is that in order to attain the de-
sired effect the user in principle can make use of one of n economtc
. 10
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR 0'c'FICIAL USE ONLY
decisions available to him, these differing from one another with respect
to the moment of their realization. With an increase in the validity time
of the measures taken there are usually two tendencies observed: the
economy of the actions ~aken by the user increases, whereas the reliabil-
ity of the meteorological information used in choosing decisions decreas-
ea. The opposite picture is observed with a decrea~e in validity time:
the reliability of information about ant~cipated weather conditions in-
creases, but the possibility of routine "adaptation" to these conditions,
and accordingly, the results c~f the economic measurea taken,is reduced.
Thus, the need arises for f~~~~iing some most rational "time" strategy for
the adoption of decision3. In this communication we will examine this
problem for the simplest case, when n= 2, that is, the user has the pos-
sibility of making a choice between two types of economic measures having
different validity times.
- In formulating the mentioned problem we will use as a point of departure
that the user is dealing with sa~= dangerous or simply unfavorable meteor-
logical phenomenon which can oc~ur or not occur; if it does occur, the
economy is inflicted a loss equal to L units of cost. Adhering to Ander-
son [10], who evidently was the first to give attention to the necessity
for a deeper study of the adoption of optimum decisions taking the time
factor into account, we will assume that in order to prevent losses from
unfavorable weather it is sufficient for the user to carry out one of two
protective measures: d'1, having a relatively great validity time T' and
a relatively small cost C' or d", having a lesser validity time T"(T" ~ T'),
but greater than di, cost C". Tl~[us, it is assumed that ~
. C' p,~,~ ~ >P~� (13)
_ In all the remaining cases the best solution will be the constant carry-
ing out of protective measures with a long validity time, that is, the
strategy Scl 1�
It should be noted that in the general methodological plan the consider-
ed problem can be interpreted as the problem of the choice of an optimum
economic strategy when a stochastic climatological forecast is available -
as well as a categorical forecast with a short validity time.
Case c). This differs from the preceding in that in addition to climatol-
ogical information on the frequency of occurrence of a harmful phenomenori
and an alternative forecast TT" with a short validity time the user also
has an alternative forecast with a long validity time 'R' which from the
point of view of the moment of compilation and issuance to the user can
be employed in the 3tage of adoption of decisions on the carrying out of
long-range protective measures di.
With the availability of two forecasts in principle there can be so-called
complex strategies whose realization assumes the simultaneous use of a11
the prognostic information [2-4J. As an example, it is easy to visualize
the following variant of adoption of economic decisions.
16
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY -
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
In the case Qf poor weather (r(' = T~'1) anticipated from a forecast with
a].ong validity time the protective measures di are carried out and the
forecast 1T " is not further taken into account. However, in the case of
good weather (TT' - jT2) anticipated under the first forecast the final
decision is adopted in the second stage, to wit: if the forecast
like TT', indicates favorable conditions ( n" _'R 2), no measures are
taken; however, if according to the second forecast a harmful phenomenon
is anticipated (TT" = TT1), the protective measures di are carried out.
Thus, precautionary measures are taken when pred:.cting a harmful pheno-
menon by at leae~ one method. Another situation %an also occur when protec-
tive measures, on the other hand, are carried out only in a case when the
harmful phenomenon is anticipated only on the basis of both forecasts.
It follows from an analysis of the different variants for the adoption of
decisions that that in the particular case there is a total of ten con-
ceivable complex strategies.
9s was pointed out in [2-4], for finding the optimum algorithm for a com-
~ plex approach it is not enough to know only the characteristics (con~ug-
ation matrices) of the individual alternative forecasts introduced above
and it is necessary to have information on the probabilistic character-
istics P(F1T'ti") which determine the joint frequency of recurrence of
digferent combinations of texts of both forecasts T(' ,'C7'" and the actual-
ly occurring weather conditions F. The seeking of these probabilities re-
quires an analysis of considerable statistical material and frequently
iirvolves certain difficulties. Taking this i.nto account, in the firs~
stage we will examine only a simpler problem involving the choice of the
best of four elementary (nat complex) strategies Scl 1~ Scl 2~ S~~~ and
S~~. The first three of them are alr~eady known to us: they coxrespond
to the mean losses determined by equations (5), (6) and (10). With re-
~ spect to the strategy S n~, meaning adoption of decisions in accordance
with an alternative forecast with a long va~idity time, by analogy with
(10) the mean losses with its use will be
En' = Pi~ L~ -F- P~� (14 ) -
Here pi~ and p12, like the other probabilities with a prime presented here- _
- after, relate to the forecast TT' and have the very same sense as the sim-
, ilar values with a double prime for the forecast TT
- It should be noted that the strategies of the operations, despite the fore-
' casts 1T' and j~'", which also are not complex, simply need not be consider-
= ed, since, as already noted, with methodological soundness of the prognos-
tic methods they always will be less effective than S~1 1 and Scl 2�
The seeking of regions of optimality of each of the four enumerated ele-
mentary strategies is reduced to joint analysis of expressions (5), (6),
(10) and (14) and construction of a corresponding diagram of optimum
strategies. The most natural case will be when a forecast with a short
time validity TT" has better success indices both from the point of view
17
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/48: CIA-RDP82-44850R000200074417-4
FOR OFFICIAL 1JSE ONY,Y
of the probability of a correct prediction of the occurring dangerous
phenomenon (pl I1) p11 ) and with respect to the frequency of re.^,urrence
� +
of different errors o~ the type missing of a phenomenon" (p" ~ p
1~2 1~2
The h reakdown of the area of the base triangle into regions of optima~-
ity of individual strategies, corresponding to this condition, ie shown
Ln Fig. ld. It is eaey to. see tt~at for currying out the correspon~ing
constructions it is necessary and adequate to know five indices: condition-
- al probabilities P11~1' P1125 pl~l' P1~2 and the clima~ological frequency
of recurrence of the phenomenon pl.
Equating the right-hand sides of the expressions for E~~~ and E.R~ to one -
another, it can be shown that the boundary separating the region of dom-
inance of the strategy S~' from the region of greater effectiveness of the
strategy S~ will be th.e straight line
, _ .
~ = Pt~~ r L pill)' (15 )
pl `
passing through the points ~
~
X P~I2-P~2 ~ p~ 2 ~16)
Pi~ i ~
Y ~R~~~ P~~,)
which in the pa~ticular case (that is, when the forecast 1'(" is better
than T(') lie below the straight line C'/L = C"/L. The regions of optimal-
ity of the strategies S~~ and S~~~ in this case have the form of rec-
tangle s; the first of these is a right-an~le trapezium. Easily confirmed
also is the fact that when ~i~l-s pl and pl~ ~ p when the forecast `
with a long val~dity time~}~( tends to a ran~om ~orecast, the points X and
Y approach one another and there is a gradual transition to the optimal-
ity diagram shown in F~g. 1. -
t
K = cl
Sxn 2 ~
Ati
f- ---0,6
S~" ~
N Sn'
- q-'~- ~ - - q~
~ ~ _
#
sK~, ~ i
~
o a,s qe ~ cNic
Fig. 2. Finding of optimum strategy in presence of two alternative fore- -
casts (example). _
18
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
C'/L
_ ' - -
Q~ 6J
' a b
~ J23 S~
. ~
i �
~ P~ P~
~ ~
~Z~ ~ ~ N
i
i / ~iy~ ~ �
. i~ ~ -
~ ~!t Pt P11!
7 ~
81 ~ z~ d
Sq~ SDM
N - (~~~~IM
,
_ Pf - P~
~ N - (C%lJN
~ ~'1 ~ I ~ ~ I
~ ~ j I I I ~ I
a P
~Z" (~/!~M P~I~u' 1 0 P~~ (C%L)N P~~~ 1 C%L ~
Fig. 3. Geometric interpretation of formulation of re:~uirements on fore-
cast on part of user. a) zones .~1, SZ2 and SZ3, differing in nature of
requirements on the success of predictions: b) N~SZl; c) NES12; d) NES23.
Table 3
Percentage Frequency of Recurrence of Different Combinations of Predicted
and Actually Occurring Weather Conditions for Two Forecasts of Different
Validity Times
~ R, n�
F E
n, I n, n, ! n,
Fi 25 15 27 13 40
F~ 25 35 18 42 60
E 50 50 4;i 55 100
Discussion of results. The described geometric method can be used success-
fully in solving two mutually inverse problems. We have already dealt with
the first in the process of the analysis of strategies carried out above. ~
The prohlem is formulated as follows.
19
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
We will assume that we know the climatological frequency of recurrence
of the harmful phenomeiion and the probabilistic characteristics of
- forecasts of differ~nt time validity, determined by the corresponding
con~ugation matrices. It is necessary to determine what economic strategy
_ must be adhered to by the users of this meteorological in~formation with
different ;;alues of the economic indices (C"/L)N and C~/L)N (N is the
- number of the user).
In order to answer the formulated problem it is sufficient to carry out
a construction similar to that shown in Fig, ld and then determine in
which of the regions the point of interest to us
N r~ ~,.~N' ~ ~ ~Nl. .
~ J
falls.
We will illustrate this procedure in one specific example. Table 3 gives
the percentage frequencies of recurrence of possible combinations of p re-
dicted and actually occurring weather conditions for two alternative
forecasts T(~ and jj~~ differing with respect to validity time. On the
basis of these data, for bott: prognostic methods we will find the charac-
ter~stics of success pl~l and p112. In this case we will have:
for ~ ~
- p~~l 0,50, p;~2 = Jp = 0,30;
?r
for' ~
27 = 0,60
p~~, = 4; , P,~2 = ~5 = ~,24.
The climatological frequency of recurrence of the predicted phenomenon is -
pl = 0.40 (40%). Thus, both forecasts are methodologically sound and the
forecast with the lesser validity time has the higher success. Figure 2
- shows the diagram of o~timality of different strategies corresponding to
the considered case.
We will assume that there are two users, for the ~irst of which C"/L = 0.6
and C'/L = 0.4, wherea3 for the second C"/L = 0.8 and C'/L = 0.6. The
corresponding points in Fig, 2 are N1 and N2. Taking their positions into
account, it can be concluded that for the first user the optimum strategy
is that of carrying out of protective measures dl in accordance with the
forecast T~'', and for the second the dispensing ~aith precautionary
measures and being content with possible loss from unfavorable weather. In
a similar way (without any computations whatsoever) it is possible to give
recommendations on the adoption of economic decisions for any other users. -
Now we will turn to the inverse problem. In this case the economic charac-
teristics (C"/L)N and (C'/L)N are assumed to be stipulated, these deter-
mining the users, and the question is raised as to what requirements must ~
be satisfied by forecasts, in particular, a forecast with a short time `
I
20 y
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
I
~
~
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-00850R040240070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
validity Tr~~ so that. its use will give a positive effect in comparison
with a climatologically optimum strategy or (if there is a methodologic.-
ally sound forecast with a long validity time TT~) in comparison with
the best of the strategies Scl 1~ Scl 2 and S~'. The solution of this
problem, to be sure, could be obtained purely analytically, on the basis
of a~oint analysis of the expressions for the mean losses Ecl 1~ Ecl 2~
E n' and E~". However, these same results are obtained in a more graphic
form if wE have recourse to a corresponding geometrical interpretation.
We will illu~trate this in the example of formulation of the require-
ments on prognoatic information in a"climatology - forecast with a short
_ time validity" situation.
As demonstrat~ed in Fig. 3a, there are three zones ~1, ~ 2 and ~?3 which
differ in, the nature of the requirements imposed on prognostic informa-
_ tion.
~c***~c
21
- FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY y
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
- For any points lying below the straight line
C~ C~
= Z'"=Pi~- (region ~1), (17)
the very formulation of the problem ot seeking the condi~ions for a:change
from the climatologically optimum strategy here Scl 1 to the use of the -
forecast TT " does not make sense, since with any probabilities p"11 E. [P1,
lJ and p~~12and p" E[0, p1] the region of optimality of the s~rategy
Sn~~ (shaded in 3b) is situated above the considered region�.~1.
- When the point N(r lN, (
L~ ~ ~
l~ / l N
falls over the straight line (17) there can be two cases:
,
pi ~ ~n ~N< C ~)N~ p~ (region ~.2) (18)
and
(~Ll ~Pt (region ~,3) (19)
- ` _/N
The first of these is more complex. As can be seen from the constructions _
shown in Fig. 3c, in the region ~2 the stratPgy S~~ican be optimum only
with pl~i values which without question exceed the critically small Ievel
Cn
~min _ Ps ~ L ~N
I C' ' 20
ii
( L
` ~V
and pll2 values unquestionably less than the critically high level
C~ /~O
_ ~ ~ /N pl \ L N ~21~
m~x _ .
r
+
~~1 r~ 1N-~ ~~N P~ 1
~ ~
- It is also easy to demonstrate that with stipulation of a specific p"
value belonging to the interval [0, P~X] the use of ~he j"(" foreca~s~~2
will be feasible onl~ with probabilit~e~ pl~l exceeding the value
p
~ rC l w
l ~ IN-p~~2 ~22~
p
ji� = p;~z +(P, - P,~z~ C~ ~
- ~ ~ ~ -p~~~ ~ .
N
and, on the other hand, if a pll~ value lyir.g within the interval [Piii lJ
is registered, the probability p1I2 must b~, less than
~l
FOR OF~ICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
, �
~
C
P~~~ ~ -p~ ~ ~ -
m~x _ N ~y
~ G M~
~2 ~N-~~�~N_Pi+p~~~ (23)
The limiting expressions (20) and (21) in fact repre~ent special cases of
the general expressions (22) and (23). In actuality, with p" 2 = 0(20)
follows from (22), whereas with P1~1 = 1(21) follows from ~~3). Thus, in
the region ~ 2, stipulated by the bilateral inequality (18), a change from
an indicated Scl 1 strategy which is climatologically optimum here to the -
strategy S R?~ requires the satisfaction of definite limitations imposed on
the admissible values of the probabilities p1'1 and P1I2'
_ With respect to the region ,~3,�situated above the horizontal straight line
~ C'/L = ol (Fig. 3d), here a change to the strategy S~~~ will be desirabla _
- with an~~ values
r,~ -
p'~' ~ ~ ~
)N' ~
(24}
that is, in contrast to the preceding case no special requirements are im-
posed on the probability p112. This, to be sure, does not mean that the
p1I2 value in the ~3 region has no i~portance at all. It is not important
- only from the point of vie;v of fundamental solution of the problem of what
is more advantageous: be guided by the forecast or not take any protective
measures. [The mentioned peculiarity is a reflection of the general prin-
ciple, discussed in [6], of the one-sidedness of the requirements imposed
on an alternative forecast by some specific user.J However, with respect
to the degree of usefulness of prognostic inform~tion, all other condi-
tions being equal, it will always be the higher the lesser the probability
P1~2'
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Bagrov, N. A., "Economic Usefulness of Forecasts," METEOROLOGIYA I
GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology and Hydrology), No 2, 1966.
2. Bagrov, N. A., "CompZex Forecasting Method," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOG-
ZYA, No 4, 1962.
3. Gandin, L. S., Zhukovs~i3, Ye. Ye., Brunova, T. M., "Economically Opti- _
mum Combining of Forecasts," IZVESTIYA AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I
OKEANA (News of the USSR Academy of Sciences, Physics of the Atmo-
sphere and Ocean), No 6, 1979.
4. Zhukovskiy, Ye. Ye., Brunova, T. M., "Effective Combining of Alterna-
tive Forecasting," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA, No 5, 1978.
~
23
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Zhukovskiy, Ye. Ye., Chudnovskiy, A. F., MEODY OPTIMAL'NOGO ISFflL'-
ZOVANIYA METEOROLOGICK::SKOY INFORMATSII PRI PRINYATII RESHEN~Y (Meth-
ods for the Optimum Use of Meteorological Information in the Adoption
- of Decisions), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1978. ,
6. Zhukovskiy, Ye. Ye., "Alternative Weather Forecaists: Economic Fffa~-
tiveness and Requirements on Success," NAUCHNO-TEKHN. BYULLETEN' PO `
AGRONOMICHESKOY FIZIKE (Scientific-Technical Bulletin on,Agronomic
Physics), No 36, 1978. -
7. Monin, A. S., "Use of Unreliable Forecasts," IZVFSTIYA AN SSSR, SERIYA
GEOFIZIKI (News of the USSR Academy of Sciences, Geophysical Series),
No 2, 1962.
8. Obukhov, A. M., "On the Problem of Evaluating the Success of Alterna-
tive Forecasts," IZVESTIYA AN SSSR, SERIYA GEOFIZIKI, No 4, 1955.
9. Omshanskiy, M. A., "Allowance for the Accuracy.of Forecasts and 'Their
Use," ZHURNAL GEOFIZIKI (Journal of Geophysics), Vol 3, No 4, 1933.
10. Anderson, L. G., "The Economics of Extended Weather Forecasting,"
MON. WEATHER REV., Vol 101, No 2, 1973.
_ 11. Kernan, G. L., "The Cost-Loss Decision Model and Air Pollution Fore-
casting," J. APPL. METEOROL., Vol 14, 1975.
12. Murphy, A. H., "A Note on the Utility of Probabilistic Predictions and
the Probability Score in the Cost-Loss Ratio Decision Situation," J.
APPL. METEOROL., Vol 5, No 4, 1966.
13. Murphy, A. H., "The Value of Climatological, Categorical and Probabil-
istic Forecasts in the Cost-Loss Ratio Situation," MON. WEATHER REV.,
Vol 105, No 7, 1977.
14. Thompson, .1. C., "On the Ope-~:,.;,~.,..~ ~:;cLl~~encies in Categorical Weath-
er Forecasting," BULL. AMER. METEOROLOG. SOC., Vol 33, No 6, 1952.
15. Thompson~ J. C., "Economic and Social Impact of Weather Forecasts,"
_ WEATHER F'ORECASTING AND WEATHER FORECASTS: MODEL, SYSTEMS AND USERS,
Boulder, Colo., NCAR, 1976.
24
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFI~IAL USE ONLY
UDC 551.576.1
EVALUATION OF THE STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT OF A CUMULUS CLOUD
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No l, Jan 80 pp 24-29
[~lrticle by G. N. Nikitina and G. I. Skhirtladze, Institute of Experimental
Meteorology, submitted for pulilication 20 April 1979]
Abstract: This~paper presents the results of
measurement of the optical density of cumu-
lus clouds. The autfiors demonstrate the dif-
ferences in the distributions of the size of
optical tnhomogeneities in developing and _
decaying clouds (on the basis of visual ob-
servattons). A metfiod for probabilistic
evaluation of tfie stage of evolution of a
cumulus cloud is proposed which is based
on the horizontal extent c~f optically homo- -
geneous sectors.
[Text] The physical processes transpiring in cumulus clouds are essentially
dependent on the stage of cloud development. It is possible to differenti-
ate three stages in evolutton of a cumulus cloud: development, stationary
state and decay [9]. In making observations of clouds from the ground these
stages can be determin,ed using photograTmnetric measurements of the rate of ~
development of the tops and vertical and horizontal dimensions of the
cloud jl, 10]. It is difficult to make such measurements aboard an air-
craft laboratory. In this case there are limitations on visual observa-
tions of clouds, making it possible for the most part to separate decaying
clouds from nondecaying clouds, that is, those in the stage of development
or in a stationary state jll]. However, visual observations cannot be made
in flight when there is a high degree of cloud coverage when the aircraft -
laboratory rapid~y passes from one cloud into another. Accordingly, for
aircraft investigations of cumulus clouds it is necessary to have a method
making it possible to evaluate the stage in devel~pment of a cloud when
processing experimental data. In this paper an attempt is made to evaluate
the stage in development of a cumulus cloud on the basis of the nature of
- variability of the optical density of tfie cloud medium in a horizontal di-
rection.
25
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY .
Experimental investigations [4-6] have shown that clouds of different
sper_ies can be characterized by a definite mean horizontal scale of non-
uniformity of the attenuation index a parameter characterizing the ~
optical densi[y of the medium. For cumulus cloude this acale is 150 m
I6l�
In the studies enumerated above i;here was no mention of the stage in de- ~
velopment of the investigated cumulus cloud; averaging was for all clouds. :
Using an IL-14 aircraft laboratory we carried out measurements of the op- ~
tical density of cumulus clouds, accompanied by visual evaluations of the ~ '
aerologist aboard who determined the stage of cloud development directly
before the aircraft passed through the cloud. The flights took place dur- '
ing 1976-1978 (in summer) over the territory of Moldavia and the Ukraine.
' The measurements were made in droplet clouds with a vertical thickness
of 0.8-2.5 km. The cloud was considered to be in the development stage '
(or in a stationary state) under the following conditions: well-expressed
turUulently developing top, clear outlines, and insofar as possible in
obseivations in the cloud cover field, an even base [9, 11]. A cloud with
a"fibrous" top and indistinct outlines was considered to be in a stage
of decay. A cloud with a decaying uneven base, but retaining evidences
of growing upper and middle parts, was also regarded as being in the de-
velopment stage [1]. The flights through clouds were made for the most
_ part in the middle or upper parts. In 1978~the measurements were made
in growing and decaying clouds on each flight; in 1977 only in growing
clouds. In 1976 repeated flights were made through clouds which before
the fly-through were evaluated as growing clouds, but which in subsequent
fly-throughs gradually decayed and measurements were made separately only
in decaying clouds. The number of clouds investigated on each flight and
the characteristics of the synoptic situations on measurement days are
given in Table 1.
During flight through the cloud measurements were continuously made to
determined optical density. A"Boomerang" instrument was used [7]; it had
a time constant 'G s~ 0.01 sec. Temperature was measured using a low-in-
ertia electric thermometer with 'G = 0.03 sec. Flight altitude and velo-
city were measured using EDPD-1 modified sensors. Measurement data were
registered with a loop oscillograph with a rate of movement of the photo-
tape of 8 mm/sec. Figure 1 shows examples of oscillograms with registry
of instrument readings during flight through cumulus clouds. ~
The primary processing of experimental data involved the measurement of
the lengths of segments in clou~s which are uniform in optical density.
As in j6], those sectors of a cloud were considered uniform in which the
attenuation index'Y m 1(or the value of the range of visibility S m, in-
versely proportional to it [6]) did not change by a factor of more than 2.
Cloud inhomogeneities were grouped by sizes. The range of dimensions of
inhomogeneities in the group was 50 m. The data in each measurement ser-
ies (each flight) were used in plot~ing the distributions of inhomogen-
_ eities by sizes in developing and decaying clouds. As a rule,
26
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
the scales of the inhomogeneities 9~n the decaying clouds were less than
in the developing clouds. A comparison of the distributions was made us-
ing the Kolmogorov test K(~) [8). Table 2 gives the ~omputed values
1- K(~1) for a comparison of the distributions of inhomogeneities from
four arbitrarily selected seriea of ineasurements wi;.h one another. The
iiigh 1- K(,1) values (insignificance of differences) for clouds in one .
stage of evolution and the low values for clouds in a different stage
indicate that the optical structure of the cumulus clouds is slightly de-
pendent on the conditions under which the cloud developed and exists in
comparison with the dependence on development stage. Accordingly, it is
possible to combine data from series of ineasurements relating to differ-
ent synoptic conditions for the purpose of increasing the statistical
back-up for the distributions.
SN ~
200 ~�C -
J)
100 ~
SO f00M m/ sec J
fOM/CC y
t0
S
,
~
~ ?DO 6j .
f -
i00
SO ?
f00a ~
_ ,?0 m/aec f0H/cGr ~~q
_ ~ , ,
~s
S00 1000 ~y
Fig. 1. Variation of optical density (1) and temperature (2) along the
horizontal in developing (a) and decaying (b) cumulus clouds; 3 and 4--
altitude and fligh~ speed of aircraft respectively.
27
- FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
~v o0
a~ a
_ ~ ~ ~ I I I I r-I I I ~ r-I N r-1
,c u �
t~ m b
v ~
> b
~ o I
~
w u
0
00
H q -
.a 3 N ~ ~-i I I t~ M ~-I 00 O t~ -
' I N M
~ ~
z ao
N N
1a ~t ~7 r-I .t ~O n o0 00 ~O 1~ 00
J r-I i-1 I ri ri r-1 ri r-I r-I r-1 ri ri
O I I u't I i I I 1 I I I 1
.C O N N ~T u'1 u1 ~O N ~t u'1 ~O
~ ~ O~ ~ ri r-~ r-i r-1 ri ~-i r-1 r~l
w
~
~
'1"~ .
H
w ~ ~
~ ~ ~ ~i ~
~ ~ ~-1 ~d0 r~ ~ .q
C D+ D, 'J~i O 'i~ D, ~DO Tl P, r~l
~~-1 ~ i 3-~ �i-ul 1~.~ M �rl O Gl M-~1 ~
~ ~ O ~ A q 4~.~ y~-i�+ Gl
~ m a ro ~ ~o ~ ~ ~ a � c� ~
w w w o ~ a-i o o H a-i u,-~
~n o o a~ o r+ o o ~ ~ o
u a, o ~ a, a+ vNi " a~
~ a~i v u ~ ~ a~i as~i u ~ a~ a~ w~ -
a .e .c w b w ~+.a a ~ ,c � a~i
~ a a u a o a a ,-i o o ~n a m
rl v-I M rl rl ~ri O dJ fA rl N Cl
3~+ i-~ i.i f-i i-i H U 1~+ i-i R dl 3~ R) ia
~ a a~ a a~ o a~ a~ o o v~+ a~ a a
a a~ a a a a a
~ v ~ v~1 ~ Ipr 'b ~ V~l ~ ~00 GJ Gp1
Cl GJ 01 y G! Gl N Ol N A 00 M N .C rl
oo v~ v oo o0 o b ~ 3'C N
U1 'C tq G1 !A r-I N T1 (fl 'C1 V i-1
r~ ~ 3 a 3 c�~ 3~ 3~ vi c�~ 3 o f~ z o~'o
0
z
~ r-i N M ~t ~+'1 ~O 1~ 00 01
~00
M r"~ r-I '"1
r-I
F~
~ n
n ~
r~-I ~ O~
r-1 r-I
28
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
- FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
~ N~ '
- ~ ~ r~
ii .
J 1 '
1
ZD
~
1
10 1 `
i
i
L_~
~ 1 ~
0 1S0 S00 730 1M
Fig. 2. Size distribution of optical inhomogeneities in growing (1) and de-
caying (2) clouds.
Nx ~
~
~
~
r
60 ~ '
1
y0
~
20
f
I
ZI
~ Z
~
0 o,s ~out
Fig. 3. Distributions of dimensions ~,of optical inhomogeneities in growing
(1) and decaying (2) clouds relative to extent of cloud L.
Figure 2 shows the size distributions of optical inhomogeneities in clouds
in the growth stage (1061 inhomogeneities) and the stages in decay (683 in-
homogeneities) constructed on the basis of results of all measurements. The
29
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY '
most probable size of inhomogeneities in both cases i.s about 100 m. How-
ever, there are significant differences between the two distributions.
The distribution relating to decaying clouds (2) is more symmetric; it con-
tains virtually no uniform sectors of more than 500 m in length and sectors
with a length ~ 250 m constitute only 10% of the total number. Distribu-
- tion (1) is sharply asymmetric; inhomogeneities in it greater than 250 m
constitute 35% of the total number; individual inhomogenei~ies attain a
size 1000-1500 m. The mean.size of the optical inhomogeneities in growing
clouds is 194 m, and in decaying clouds 102 m. The mean horizontal sizes
of clouds in different stages were approximately identical about 1200 m.
Estimates of the signif icance of differences in distributions (1) and (2),
carried out using the K(~1) test, show that these differences are signif-
icant with a significance level less than 5%.
Table 2
Values 1- K(~1) in Intercomparison of Distributions of Optical Inhomogen-
eities from Different Measurement Series (Flights)
1~~
G 5~ 7 t~ 11M
~
-3 0,379 0,999 0,965 0,064
~5" - 0,065 O,lli 0,9,~4
1 - - 0,711 0,003
71 - - 0.025
* series relating to decaying clouds. -
KEY:
1. No of flight (iable 1)
In 90% of the cases the optically densest parts of the growing clouds were
the longest homogeneous sectors. N~ sueh dependence was observed in decay- -
ing clouds. Figure 2 shows that the greater (lesser) are the dimensions of
- the inhomogeneities, the more probable it is that the cloud can be assigned
to the category of growing (decaying), in the absence of visual observations. ~
Table 3 gives the numerical values of the probability of correspondence of
evaluations of the stage of development of clouds by sizes of optical in-
homogeneities to visual observations, computed from the distributions of
sizes of the most extPnsive cloud sectors.
Si.milar results can be obtained without making visual observations of a
cloud, but by comparing the optical structure of clouds with repeated pass-
- es of the aircraf t. It is known that the aircraft, when flying through, ex-
erts a destructive effect on a cloud with small vertical development; for
30 .
FOR OFFI(:IAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
the IL-14 aircraft the number of flights through the cloud adequate for
cloud decay is 1-5 [2]. It can be noted on the basis of ineasurement data
for 1976, when repeated flights were made through clouds, that with an
increase in the number of passes through the cloud the dimensions of the
optical inhomogeneities in general decrease. In the first flights through
clouds the mean dimensions uf the inhomogeneities were 212 m, in the sec-
_ ond 187 m, and in successive passes 135 m.
Table 3
Probabilities of Correspondence (Y.) of Evaluations of Stage of DeveloFment
of Clouds by Sizes of Optical Inhomogeneities to Visual Observations
2 Maxcxwaabxde paaa~ep~t xeoalxopo~xoczet5, M
Cza,ads 1 - 3 ~ $
i
~
Q83HHTNA g i ~ 'i 'i I ~
^ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ n
3 ParrytuKe 0 13 20 25 35 50 60 75 90 100
4 Pacna,�atou~xecR 100 87 80 75 6ri 50 40 ?S 10 0
KEY:
1. Development stage
2. Maximum size of inhomogeneities, m
3. Growing
4. Decaying
In an examination of the synchronous records of temperature and optical
density variability in clouds we note a correlation between them (Fig. I).
- According to [3J, in a cumulus cloud the zones with a higher temperature
correspond to ascending convective flows. The size distribution of zones
of increased temperature (convective flows) in growing and decaying clouds
- was compared. These distributions differed from one another similar to the
_ distributions of optical inhomogeneities (Fig. 2). Accordingly, the dif-
ference in the optical structure of clouds in different stages of evolution
is attributable to the difference in the structure of cloud convection.
A camparison of the distributions of the relative. (to the horizontal extent
of the cloud) dimensions of optical inhomogeneities, represented in Fig. 3,
- is of definite interest. This figure shows that in decaying clouds the rel-
_ ative dimensions of the inhomogeneities are substantially less than in grow-
- ing clouds. In the latter there are many cases when th~e cloud is almost as
uniform horizontally as, for example, in Fig. la. A noteworthy point is the
presence of a minimum in the distribution relating to growing clouds (Fig. 3
= (2)). It is possible that this minimum is the limit separating growing and
31
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
stationary clouds. This is supported by the fact that individual measure-
ments of the structure of convective flows [12] show that in small cumu-
lus clouds with a vertical thickness of about 2 km in the growth stage
~ there is a predominance of one aecending flow whose dimenaions are com-
parable with the extent of the cloud. Accordingly, convective flowa de-
terminethe optical structure of a cloud. The position of the minimum in
the distribution (1) is evidently governed by the nature of the separa-
tion of the main flow with transition of a cloud into a stationary stage.
The quantity of clouds for which the relative dimensions of homogeneous
sectors are close to unity is 10-15% of the total number of clouds evalu-
ated a3 "growing." These evaluations agree with measurements of the rela-
tionship between the quantity of growing and stationary clouds in the
field of cumulus clouds [3]. Nevertheless, despite indirect confirma-
tions of the possibility of separating growing clouds from stationary
clouds on the basis of the Q/L value, where ~ is the dimension of a homo~-
geneous sector, L is the extent of the c.loud, additional investigations
are required for its rigorous demonstration.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Anderson, Ch. E., "Method for the Classification of Cumulus Clouds on _ -
the Basis of Photogrammetry," DINAMIKA KUC~IEVYKH OBLAKOV (Dynam:Lcs of
Cumulus Clouds), Moscow, Mir, 1964.
2. Vul'fson, N. I., Cherenkova, Ye. P., "Effect on Convective Clouds by _
Artificially Created Descending Movements," TRUDY IPG (Transactions
of the Institute of Applied Geophysics), No 12, 1970.
3. Vul'fson, N. I., ISSLEDOVANIYE KONVEKTIVNYKH DVIZHENIY V SVOBODNOY AT-
MOSFERY (Investigation of Convective Movements in the Free Atmosphere),
Moscow, Izd-vo AN SSSR, 1961.
4. Zabrodskiy, G. M., Morachevskiy, V. G., "Investigation of the Transpar-
ency of Clouds and Fogs," TRUDY AANII (Transactions of the Arctic and -
Antarctic Scientific Research Institute), Vol 228, No 1, 1959. _
5. Zaytsev, V. A., Ledokhovich, A. A.= PRIBORY I METODIKA ISSLEDOVANIYA -
OBLAKOV S SAMOLETA (Instruments and Methods for Investigating Clouds
from an Aircraft), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1960. -
6. Kosarev, A. L., Mazin, I. P., Nevzorov, A. N., Shugayev, V. F., "Optical
Density of Clouds," TRUDY TsAO (Transactions of the Central Aerological
~ Observatory), No 124, 1976.
7. Litvinov, I. V., Grytskiv, I. V., Lobodin, V. M., "Aircraft Instrument
for Measuring Cloud Transparency," Author's Certificate No 183440, USSR,
registered 18 April 1966.
~ 32
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/48: CIA-RDP82-44850R000200074417-4
j FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
8. Mitropol'skiy, A. K., TEKHNIKA STATISTICHESKIKH VYCHISLENIY (Tech-
niques of Statiatical Computations), Moscow, Nauka, 1971.
9. ~hmeter, S. M., FIZIKA KONVEKTIVNYKH OBLAKOV (Physics of Convective ~
Clouds), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1972.
10. Tikseront, D., "Developpement retrograde et pusatore dun Cumulonimbus,"
Diss. De L'universite de Clermont-Ferrand, 1976.
11. Warner, J., "The Microstructure of Cumulus Clouds. Part 1. General
Features of the Droplet Spectrum," J. ATMOS. SCI., Vol 26, No 5, 1969.
12. Warner, J., "Time Variation of Updraft and Water Content in Small
Cumulus Clouds," J. ATMOS. SCI., Vol 34, No fi, 1977.
r
~
33 -
~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
~
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
UDC 551.510.534(47+57)
FEATURES OF OZONE DISTRIBUTION WITH ENTRY OF SOUTHERLY CYCLONES INTO THE
EUROPEAN USSR
Moacow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 80 pp 30-35
[Article by Candidate of Geographical Sciences L. A. Uranova, USSR Hydro-
meteorological Scientific Research Center, submitted for publication 23
March 1979]
Abstract: The author examines ~he relationship
between the forming of southerly cyclones and
their entry into the European USSR and regions
of a minimum tatal ozone content. It was found
that on the average two days prior to the forma-
tion of a cyclone over the Mediterranean or Black
Seas a region of minimum ozone is formed in this
region. Tfie trajectory ~f cyclone entry passes
along a zone of reduced total ozone content, be-
ing deflected from tfie trajectory of motion of
tfie ozone minimum by an average of 300-400 km.
The entry of the cyclone into the European USSR
y usually occurs the day after the arrival of the
ozone minimum.
[Text] As is well known, a prediction of entry of southerly ~:yclones into
_ the European USSR is one of the u~ost difficult problems and as yet does
not have a high degree of success. Until now all studies of this problem
have been based exclusively on synoptic interrelationships [1, 3, 5, 6].
In th3s paper we examine the possibility of an influence of the distribu- -
tion of the total ozone content and its changes on the entry of southerly
cyclones into the European USSR. During the past decade there have been
quite a few studies devoted to the interrelationships between the distrib-
ution of the total ozone content and atmospheric circulation [2, 4, 7-10].
Many of them have related to the influence of atmospheric circulation on
ozone. During recent years several studies have been devoted to the influ-
ence of the distribution of total ozone content on circulation [4, 7, 8].
In particular, in one of the recent studies [8] it was demonstrated that
there is a rather good correlation between the day-to-day ozone variability
34
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
1S
a b 0) , c
t~ zs Z .
7 ~~l
d
12
?4 ocnD~ ~
~ a~ MOCKBII MOC ~ A
1 2J ~ T iB 7 7 ~J 1d
~ ~ /
~ ~S /
1019 ~s ~ ~p ~ ~ ~
T ~ y~~ 6 10,11 ~ '
17 f0 ~ ~ 1
- ~ ~Z 'Z --Z'
Fig. 1. Tra~ectories of motion of southerly cyclones (1) and accompanying
regions of ozone minima (2). a) 18-25 August 1972; b) 6-7 October 1971; c)
1.2-16 September 1971.
Table 1
Distribution of Entries of Southerly Cyclones int~ European USSR by Months
During 1971-1975
~
~
I'O,q o~~o y aGi a .go u a ~ m ~
~ ~ a' ~ ~ S ~ x
~~z $~4 d~~~ ss a9 o~.~ Za s~.
1971 1 1 0 1 0 0 3 0 4 1 3 0 14
1972 0 0 1 3 0 3 3 2 3 4 1 0 30
1973 0 5 p 4 4 0 1 1 0 l 2 3 21
19T4 0 1 1 3 1 0 1 0 0 5 0 2 14
i~75 0 0 3 4 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 2 12
Bcero 1 7 5 13 5 5 8 3 7 12 6 7 31
1.~_
KEY: "
- 1. Year 8. July `
2. January 9. August
3. Fetiruary ].0. September
4. March 11. October -
5. April 12. November
6� M~Y 13. December
~ 7. June 14. Total
' and also day-to-day variability of pressure and temperature at sea level.
Tt was found on the hasis of a rather long series of years that on the
average after three days the day-to-day variahility of pressure at sea
level has the same sign as the day-to-day variability of ozone. In addi-
~ion, a correlation was found between marked fluctua.tions of the total
35
~
~ � FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
content of ozone from day to day and the appearance of tropical cyclones. -
On the basis of the mentioned studies, in this article we have examined
cases of the development of cyclones in the Mediterranean and Black Seas
which later entered the ~uropean USSR and the field of the total ozone
c:ontent during this same period. We analyzed a total of A1 entries of ~
southerly cyclones into the European USSR during 1971-19i5.
Also used in the analysis were daily maps of the total content of ozone,
= weather maps of the northern hemisphere for 0300 and 1500 hours Moscow
time and pressure pattern charts of the isobaric surfaces 700 and 500 mb.
Ide plotted the trajectories of motion of cyclones and the ozone minima
regions associated with them, as well as graphs of the temporal distribu-
- tion of the day-to-day variability of the total content of ozone and pres- -
sur.. at sea level from the moment of development to filling in the terri-
tory of the ~uropean USSR.
As demonstrated hy an analysis of 544 cyclones arising over the Mediterran-
ean and Black Seas during 1971-1975, each of the developing cyclones cor-
responded to a definite ozone minimum (Fig. 1). However, by no means all
cyclones existed more than one day and only 15% of all the cyclones entered -
the European USSR.
The distribution of entries of southerly cyclones into the European USSR by
months (Table 1) indicated that the greatest number of entries is observed
in spring and autumn; in winter and summer there are considerably fewer.
iIowever, in 1972 the maximum of entry of cyclones into the European USSR -
occurreci in summer and autumn, and in 1973 in winter and spring.
As indicated earliPr [lJ, a necessary condition foi� the entry of southerly
cyclones into the European USSR is a meridional transformation of the high-
level pressure field in the lower troposphere. During the considered period
the development of cyclones o~er the Mediterranean and Black Seas occurred
at the sea surface simultaneously or somewhat earlier, with meridional
transformation of the pressure field at the isobaric surface 500 mb, Usual-
- ly, af~er the formation of cyclones, along the western peripheries of high-
level troughs there is an inflow of cold air masses, penetrating to the
Mediterranean Sea, which favors the further development of the cyclones
developing here and their entry into the European USSR along the eastern
periphery of this trough.
= Here we will give a detailed analysis of one of the 81 cases of entry of
southerly cyclones into the European USSR, also carefully analyzed.
_ For example, on 18 August 1972, a cyclone developed in the northern part of
the Apennines Peninsula. Later it entered the European USSR and on 25 August
reached the Kola Peninsula. The pressure at its center at the time of devel-
opment was 1008 mb and during the entire time of entry changed insignificant-
ly. The chart for the isoliaric surface 500 mb for 0300 hours on 18 August `
36
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR QFFICIAL USE ONLY
indicated that over Eurasia there was a zonal flow and only on 19 August
was there a restructuring of the high-altitude pressure field, as a result
of which a high-altitude trough was formed over Europe. This trough reached
the southern ehores of the Mediterranean Sea. The inflow of cold air from _
the nor.t�hern part of the Atlantic along the western periphery of this
trough led to a deepening and activation of the cyclone developing the day
before and favored its entry into the European USSR along the eastern peri-
phery of the trough. Thus, the development of this cyclone cannot be at-
tributed to meridional transformation of the high-altitude pressure field.
Table 2
Development of Southerly Cyclones and Minima of Total Ozone Content During
Period 1971-1975
~AHOBpf:- 2 MNHNMyM 030R8 P8H61{IE I(NIUlO$a H8 ~
aelxo 1 Aex 3 1 Z AHA I 3 AHA I 4 Aaa I 5 AxeA _
4 ~Iscno _
crryqaes 0 l9 184 277 48 16
96 0 4 33 bl 9 3
KEY: ' -
1. Simultaneously
" 2. Ozone minimum earlier than cyclone by...
3. 1 day, 2 days... _
= 4. Nu~~,ber of cases
- An analysis of the field of total ozone content for the second half of Aug-
ust 1972 indicated that from 14 to 15 August the ozone f~.eld was transform-
ed in such a way that a zone with a minimum quantity or ozone passed through
the whole of Europe from southwest to northeast (an ozone minimum of 0.240
cm was observed over the Baltic Sea). The region of the ozone maxim~, up -
~ to 15 August occupying the temperate latitudes, was divided into two cen- -
ters. One of them was situated over America (0.360 cm) with a"spur" to
LJestern Europe; th~ other was over the southern part of Eastern Siberia
(0.440 cm). This l~d to the formation of an ozone minimum region on 16 .Aug-
- ust in the ozone trough over the Balkan Peninsula; this ozone minimum later
_ began to shift into the European USSR. The tra~ectory of motion of this
ozone minimum pass~d from the southwest to the northeast to the shores of
the Arctic Ocean. A marked decrease in tiie quantity of ozone occurred along
the future tra3ectory of motion of the cyclone during the period 14-15 Aug-
" ust. For example, at Kiev, Riga, Leningrad and Arkhangel'sk the ozone quan- -
tity in 24 hours decreased on the average by 0.060 cm. The region of the
ozone minimum was formed three days before the development of the surface
cyclone (Fig. 1). The tra~ectory of motion of the cyclore almost duplicates
the trajectory of motion of the ozone minimum region, deviating 500-600 km
to zhe left of it. -
37 `
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
As already mentioned before, a high percentage of the entries of southerly
cyclones occurred against a background of a reduced total content of ozone
since the ozone minimum in the annual variation is observed in September- -
October. In addition, to the south of 40�N the field of a reduced quantity
of ozone predominates the entire year. If in this case a zone of reduced
ozone content, oriented fram north to south or from northeast to southwest
is observed over Europe, it can be postulated that a developing ozone mini-
mum will be displaced into the European USSR and on the average after two
days a cyclone is formed in the surface pressure field. This cyclone will
also entex~ the European USSR. The entry of a cyclone usually occurs a day
after entry of the ozone minimum.
Tl~.e formation of a cyclone two or three days later in the region where the ~
ozone minimum developed before this can be attributed to the fact that
the decrease in the quantity of ozone favors an increase in W penetrating
into the lower layers of the atmosphere, which, in turn, leads to addition-
al heating of the air in this region, the appearance of a heat ridge, and
accordingly, the great temperature contrasts necessary for the genesis of
a cyclone.
Analysis of all 544 cases of entry of southerly cyclones into the European
USSR, occurring during 1971-1975, indicated that they always developed af-
ter the formation of an ozone minimum zone in this region and that in 84%
of the cases they developed after two or three days (Table 2). The centers
~ of cyclones, upon entry into the European USSR, lagged a little and ~~viat-
ed from the centers of the ozone minima by an average of 300-400 1~.
All the entries of cyc].ones into the European USSR, on the basis of their
relationship to the distribution of the total content of ozone, can first
be divided into three groups.
The first group ~ncludes cyclones whose trajectories, upon entry into the
European USSR, were deflected to the left from the trajectories of motion
of regions of an ozone minimum. During the considered period 30 trajector-
ies of cyclones or 37% of all the cases were deflected to the left from
the ozone trajectorieso In all these cases southerly cyclones persisted
~ for an average of 5-6 days. These cyclones usually advanced far to the
north or northeast (Fig. la).
- The second group includes cyclones whose trajectories were deflected to the -
right from the trajectories of motion of regions of ozone minima. During
1971-1975 there were 14 such cyclones or 17% of all the cases. These :cy-
clones were rapidly filled (they did not exist more than two days) and
most did not advance to the north of 50�N (Fig. lb),
' The third group includes cyclones whose trajectories intersected the trajec- -
tories of motion of ozone minima (37 cyclones or 46% of the cases). In these
cases the lifetime of the cyclones did not exceed 5 days. It should be noted
38
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ,
that if after intersection the tra3ectory of motion of a cyclone was de-
flected to the right from the trajectory of the ozone minimum, the cyclone
t~ rapidly filled; however, if the tra~ectory of the cyclone ia deflected
to the left of the tra~ectory of the ozone minimum, the cyclone is intena-
ified and exiats for several more days. However, in all cases (81) the
ozone minimum is filled a day or two earlier than a cyclone.
_ During the considered period ther~ were several cases when cqclones, after
entry into the southern European USSR, changed the direction of motion and
turned abruptly to the west. The region of the ozone minimum was also dis- ~
placed to the west, somewhat outrunning the cyclone. The cyclone trajectory -
in this case is deflected to the right of the trajectory of the ozone mini-
mum. One such entry occurred during the period 7-11 September 1971.
A~oint analysis of data on the day-to-day variability of the total content
of ozone and pressure at sea level during ttie development of cyclones and
regions of ozone minima and along the trajectories of their motion indi-
cated that there is a rather close correlation between them (Table 3). Such
a correlation was obtained for the first time in [8] in 1975. As indicated
by the data in this table, in only 37 cases, that is, in 46% of the cases,
the pressure during the development of cyclones decreased by more than 5
mb; in all the remaining cases the pressure changes during one day were
insignificant. The data in Table 3 also indicate that the formation of a
cyclone occurred on the average two days after the formation of a region of
a minimum of the total ozone content in this same region and the entry of
- a cyclone into the European USSR begins on the average a day after the on-
= set of arrival of the ozone minimum.
d/N/ 1 . _ : . .
e . .
~ ~
; ~z '
o I ? r ~ _ 1,~ \
` `J' ~ ' y `V + .
~
~e d _
~
�~ro -
aio .
�100 � 2 3 4
?f ?J ?S T/ 1S 17 19 ?1 ?J 1S 11 f4 f/ f0
Qe00axa1971 AOt~cm1971 Ho,a(ob 197t
rig. 2. Curves of the distribution of the day-to-day variability of pres-
sure (1) and ozone (2) with the formation and entry of cyclones and ozone
minima regions.
_ KEY:
1. p mb
2. February
3. August
4. November
- 39
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Table 3
Day-to-Day Variability of Ozone,Content and Pressure With the Development
(A, B) and With the Arrival of Ozone Minima (A1) and Soutlie~rly Cyclones (B1)
in European USSR in 1971-1972 -
,Ii8Th1 803HHKH0- ~aTa ,~BTH B03HNK- ,jjBTfl
'BCHNH N 38TY� A BWX0.13 HdHEHHA H 6 g61X0~8 E
X&IlNR AI{!H O~ a~uK.03 3flT10AN0HkA ~
� 1 2 RNKJIOHB 4N ~ H8 ,
3
1971 r.
3l \II-5 I -0.030 2 I -0,0?S 2-5 I -2 3 I -17 -
21-28 II I-0,091 25 II 0 23-28 II �-2 26 11 -2U
3011l-2 IV -0,02U 1 1V -0,015 I-31V 0 21V -l0
28 VI-10 VII -0,~8a I VII O,U50 I--lO VII 2 VII -5
19-25 VII 0,060 2U VII 0,060 21-25 VII -2 21 VII -2
32-28 VII -0,026 23 VII -0,01I 24-28 VII -3 24 VII -3
3-~ ~ IX -0�034 4 1X 0,008 7-11 IX -10 7 IX -10
10-14 IX -0.015 11 IX -0.034 12-16IX -6 12IX -6
15-21 IX -0,020 IG IX -0,030 17~2 IX -14 17 IX -14
18--23 IX 0 IS ia 0 2G-24 TX -6 20 1X -6
4-~X 0 5X
7-13 XI -0,020 7 X! -0,020 16-19 IX 0 16 X1 -5
I I--15 XI 0 12 \I 0,020 14-16 1X �-:i 14 XI 0
1G-22 XI -0,007 18 YI -0,011 20-23 X1 U 20 Xl 0
~ 1972 r. ~
26-30 11I ~ 0 28 I I I -0,009 29-30 I I I -~J 29 I I I -J
19-29 IV -0.016 21 iV 0,013 21-25 IV - 1 I 21 IV -1
I 9-25 I V -0.010 21 i V 0 020 ?2-25 I V 3 22 I V - 3
Yl-27IV 0 251V 0 24-28IV -10 26IV 6
30 V--~ VI --0,020 I VI 0,020 2-3 VI -3 3 VI -3
_ l5-18 Vl -O,U1�1 15 VI -0,020 1E-18 VI ~ .16 Vl u
_ 21-23 VI -0,011 24 VI -0,003 24-25 VI 0 24 VI 0
27 \'I-5 VII -0,010 30 VI -0,015 30 Vl-5 VI1 -�6 30 V1 -6
8-r16VVII -0,002 8 VII -0,002 11-87 VII 0 il VII 0
16-25 VII1 0 19 Vill -U,014 18-2b VIIJ -1 21 VII1 0
22-28 VII1 U 24 VJ11 -O,OIS 25-28 VIII � 0 25 VIII 0
31 V(11-4 1X -0,010 1 1~ O,U20 2-S.JX . 0 2 IX , 0
12-20 IJ? -0,020 IS IX 0,040 15-2! IX - IU 15 IX lU
21-26 IX 0 23 IX -0,015 29-27 IX - I' 24 IX -l
15-17 X 0 l6 X -0,005 17-1'8 X -I 17 X -.1
X 0,0 t 0 I 19 X 0,020 20-24 X 0 20 X 0
19-24 X 0 2l X 0 21-24 X 1 22 X -7
X -0,010 21 X 0,020 22-23 \ I 22 a "
12-17 XI I-0,029 I 13 XI 0.032 I 16-18 XI -1 ~ 16 JfI -1
I I
KEY:
1. Dates of development and attenuation of 03 minimum
2. Date of arrival of 03 minimum �
3. Dates of formation and filling of cyclone
4. Date of arrival of cyclone
40
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Since the pr.essure changes accompanying the generation of southerly cyclones
are in large part insignificant (Table 3), which does not always make it
possible to detect them at once, th~ appearance of a region of an ozone
minimum and an ozone trough, directed from northeast to southwest, is a
good predictor for prediction of the entry of southerly cyclones onto the
European territory of the USSR.
An analysis of graphs of the variabi_lity of the total content of ozone and
prassure at sea~evel with their generation and along ~yclone tracks, as is
the case for ozone minima, indicated that the course of day-to-day varia-
bility of pressure in a cyclone duplicates the course of variability of
ozone in the region of the minimum with an ave:age lag of two days (Fig.
2). The characteristic course of day-to-day variability of both ozone and
pressure wi;:i~ the appearance of cyciones is first a marked decrease and
then an increase and again a decrease of ozone.
Thus, an analysis of maps of the total ozone content is also becoming nec-
essary for daily weather forecasts because the changes in the total ozone
content can serve as a predictor in predicting the entry of southerly cy-
- clones into the European USSR.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Bel'skaya, N. N., "Southerly Cyclones and Conditions for Their Movement
onto the European Territory of the USSR," TRUDY TsIP (Transactions of
the Central Institute of Forecasts), No 17, 1949.
2. Bugayev, V. A., Uranova, L. A., "Distribution of the Total Ozone Con-
tent Over the Northern Hemisphere," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA
(Meteorology and Hydrology), No 8, 1967.
3. Kurganskaya, V. M., "Conditions for the Development of Southerly Cy-
cl.ones of the Summer Half-Year and Their Movement into the European
Territory of the USSR," TRUDY TsIP (Transactions of the Central Inst-
itute ~f Forecasts), No 16, 1948.
4. Ped', D. A., Uranova, L. A., "Peculiarities of the Distribution of the
Total Oaone Content and its Role in the Change of Circulation in the
Northern Iiemisphere," TRUDY GIDROMETTSENTRA SSSR (Transact~ons of the
USSR Hydrometeorological Center), No 198, 1978. -
S. Petrosyants, M. A., "Evolution o.f a Cyclone and Structure of the Tem-
_ perature-Pressure Field," TRUDY IN-TA MATEMAT~KI I MEKNANIKI AN UZB.
SSR (Transactions of the Instituta of MathemaL-ics and Mechanics Academy
of Sciences Uzbek SSR), No 12, 1959.
6. RUKOVODSTVO PO KRATKOSROCHNYM PROGNOZAM POGODY (Manual on Short-Range
Weather Forecasting), Part II, Moscow, Gidrometeoizdat, 1967.
41
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
7. Uranova, L. A., "Distribution of the Total Ozone Content and its
Changes During Stratospheric Winter Warmings," METEOROLOGIYA I
GIDROLOGIYA, No 11, 1971.
, _
8. IJranova, L. A., "Day-to-Day Variability of Total Ozone Content by Sea-
- sons and Pressure at Sea Level," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA, No 4,
1975.
9. Uranova, L. A., KART1' OBSHCHEGO SOUERZHANIYA OZONA: PRILOZHENIYE K
SINOPTICHESKOMU BYULLET~NYU (Maps of the Total Content of Ozone:
AppciiclLx to the Synoptic Bulletin), Moacow, 1977.
10. Khrgian, A. Kh., FIZIKA ATMOSFERNOGO OZONA (Physics Atmospheric Ozone),
Leningrad, Gidrometeoiadat, 1973.
42
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
UDC 551.(~09.314+54.543)(215.17)
~VALUATION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF REMOTE SEN~ING OF THE GEUPOTENTIAL
FIELD OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 80 pp 36-45
- [Article by A. Ya. Kazakov and Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sci-
ences 0. M. Pokrovskiy, Leningrad State University, submitted for pub-
lication 30 May 1979J
Abstract: The authors propose a method for _
_ evaluating the information yield of global
~ystems for observation of the geopotential
field with the use of empirical orthogonal
functions. The article ~ives a camparison of -
the characteristics of the effectiveness of
' the networ.k of aerological stations, systems
for remote sensing of the atmosphere and
their combination. The spatial structure of
errors in analysis of the geopotential field
H500 in the northern hemisphere is studied
for the mentioned observation systems. Zones
are defined in which the analytical errors
contain ~nomalous mesoscale componenta. The
local an,i global iuformation contribution of
remote measurements carried out in individual
polar orbits is investigated. The effect of
"information saturation" is discussed.
[Text] The matters of use of data from remote thermal sensing of the atmo-
sphere in numerical anaZysis and weather forecasting occupy an important
place in investigations carried out in the area of overl~ap between atmo-
spheric optics and dynamic meteorology j8]. A great many studies have
been devoted to the problems involved in the four-dimensional assimila-
tion of asynchronous meteorological inform~tion. These results have been
summarized in [5]. The prospects for increasing rhe effectiveness of the
- procedures for asaimilation are related to methods for the direct use of
spectrometric information 3.n objective analysis and its matching with or-
dinary aerological data [2, 3, 9].
43
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
~
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
In addition to the development of inethods for the interpretation and an-
alysis of the results of remote sensing it is of considerable interest
to carry out investigations for evaluating the information yield from dif-
ferent systems of ineteorological observations. It is of special importance
to compare the data contributions of the existing aerological network of
observations and the planned system for remote sensing of the atmosphere
in numerical analysis and short-range forecasting. Also of practical in-
ter~st are investigations of the role of both observation systems in the
analysis of the components of ineteorological fields of different scales
and also determination of the information availability for individual geo-
graphical regions. Evaluations of the spatial distributian of errors in
analysis are necessary as a point of departure for studying the effective-
ness of the collected data from the point of view of the efficiency of
numerical forecasting.
There can be two approachea from the methodological point of view. The
firat is based on use of the traditional ob~ective analysis approach in
which there is discrimination of limited spatial regions of "points of in-
fluence" (stations) for carrying out optimum inter~olation and assimila-
tion. In [1J this approach was employed in computing theoretical evalua-
tions of analytical errors for both observation systems.
An alternative approach is related to realization of a numer~cal model of
global data analysis. This model was employed in [7] for objective analy-
sis purposes. Its effectiveness is determined to a considerable degree by
the adequate choice of base functions.
In this paper such a method is proposed for evaluating the information
yield of observation systems with respect to the geopotential field. As
the basis we used empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) representing the
statistical structure of the most important pressure field fluctuations.
It is clear that the EOF base will not always be sufficiently flexible for
ob~ective analysis purposes due to limitation on the wave spectrum repre-
sented in it. However, evaluations of information content are averaged
values and therefore must be determined by the statistical structure of
the set of records, and not by the characteristics of its individual rep-
resentatives.
Another prerequisite for the use of EOF in this investigation is the cir-
cumstance that due to the presence of spatial correlation of errors in re-
mote sensing data the possibilities of detecting mesoscale disturbances ~of
the geopotential field are limited. The Et~F basis for the most part con- -
tains long-wa~ve components.
Characteristics of Information Yield of Observation Systems
We will examine the formalism of evaluation of the information yield of
systems for observing fluctuations of the geopotential field. We will use
a statistical formulation of the problem. In the case of direct observations
44
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
carried out in the network of aerological stations, the observation equation
has the following form:
N
x~s~ ax`S)-~-'e `S~� (1)
Here x(s) is the true geopotential value for some fixed isobaric surface
- at a point of intersection in a horizontal grid s(s = 1,...,N), E(s) is
the observation error, x(s) is a value obtained from measurement.
The observation eqt:ation written in terms of deviations from the mean values ~
x(s) has a similar form. It can be assumed that E_(E (1),..., g(N)) is the
random vector of obser~stion errors having zero mean compor.ents and the
stipulated matrix of covariations K~ = o'2�I (I is the unit matrix). The
latter expression means that the observation errors at network stations are
atatistically independent. .
It is known that the interpretation of data from remote measurements is re-
lated to solution of the linearized algebraic system .
al(s) =A �~T~S)+a(S)� c2)
~ Here A�Q,T = ~ I and L~T are the vectors of deviations in values of the in-
tensity of out~oing radiation and the temperature profile from the corres-
ponding means I(s) and T(s), b(s) is the ~ector of observation errors. We
will assume that the b components have zero means and the known covariation
matrix Ka .
We will assume that the set of subsatellite points does not intersect with
the set of points in the aerological network. In this case s= N+1,...,M.
- The deviation of the relative geopotential value Q x(s~ .at the point s is
a linear functional of the type r* ~ T(s) is the transpositiion symbol),
where the vector-row r* _(bl,...,bp, 0,...,0); bi are quadrature coef-
ficients used in approximation of the integral, which arises when comput-
ing height (geopotential). In this case the observation equation assumes
the following form:
N
az(s) = Ox (s) -}-e (s). ( 3 )
Here ~ x(s) is the true deviation of geopotential from the mean value x(s)
at the point s. The E(s) value in (3) is the sum of the error in evaluat-
ing the relative geopotential ~1(s) and the contribution of uncertainty
in information on surface pressure E2(s). It follows from (2) that _
~1(s) = q*� S(s) - r*.P� L1 T, q* = r*�A+, A+
is a matrix which is pseudoinverse to A, P= I- A+�A. The corresponding
= dispersion is equal to
o~ bl = q*'1(a 9-Fi'�p�KT �P�r,
45
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY -
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Evaluations for the U 2~2 values are given in [8].
Now we will rewrite equations (2), (3) in spectral form with use of the EOF
baeis. Assume that the matrix .
Z= IZ,~~;? ,1=~ -
is formed by the values of the first K EOF in a grid containing R points of
intersection. We will assume that K~ M< R. For the vector of deviations of
geopotential at the points of grid intersection Q X=(Q x(1),..., Q x(R))*
the following representation is correct
ex=z � c+~. ~4 ~
Here c=(c1 ,...,ck)'~ is a set of unknown coefficients, r is the vector of
the "remainders" of the series.
= In the set of point~ of grid intersection we will discriminate the full set
of observation points and we will denote it w. Then, for these,points from
system (4) it is possible to discriminate a subsystem which, wifh~equations
(1)-(3) taken into account, is rewritten in the form
OX(o~j-Z~� �c-f-e(c~). (5)
Here ~ -
~~w) = Y +e ~
E(cJ) is a vector whose co~ponents were formed from the observation errors
entering into (1) and (3 ) .
The model (5) makes it possible to evaluate the accuracy in determining the
- coefficients c on the basis of the existing ~bservation system. When using
the EOF as a system of base fun~tions the components of the vector c are
in~ependent random values with zero means and the stipilated dispersions
~ ~ (i = 1,...,k). The dispersion of the norm of the vector of "remainders"
Yiis determined by the "tail" of the series a
~ i�i .
t=R+~
The covariation marrix of the vector c has the diagonal form diag (a
~1k). We will denote the covariation matrix of the vector g(w ) by
N
K� .
It was demonstrated in [6, lOJ that the use of 40-50 EOF ensures an adequate
degree of approximation of the geopotential field in the sense that the val-
ue of the relative accumulated dispersion
4 !t
~J'fr ~Y
\i=1 tsl
exceeds the established "threshold of significance" of the order 0.95-0.98.
46
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/48: CIA-RDP82-44850R000200074417-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Therefore the k value does not exceed 40-50. The sum M+N can be a value
of several hundreds or thousands. T~ao identical representations are corr.ect
for the remaining covariation matrix ~ of evaluations of the vector c. In
one of them it is necessary to invert a matrix of the order M x M; in the
other - a matrix of the dimensionality k x k. Taking into account that M
k, we will make use of an approach in which it is necessary to invert a
matrix of lesser dimensionality. This formula has the form
~
n = (Z~ .K;1 . ZW (6)
Conversion to a regular grid makes it possible to obtain evaluations of ac-
curacy on the basis of computations of the residual matrix of covaria-
tions
/~I N
~ ~f/ ~ll~Ll~. ~ � /
It is desirable to carry out an analysis of the results on the basis of ~
absolute and relative accuracy characteristics. The valiies of the s~andard
deviations d~(,~.= 1,...,R), representing the square roots of the diagonal _
elements characterize the accuracy in analysis of the geopotential
field. Cotivenient characteristics of information yield relative to the
set of ineasurement data are the values of the relative residual disper-
- sions di = O'i /O~ii (i = 1,...,R). Here 0'~i are the diagonal elements
of the matrix ~f natural covariations of the geopotential values in a reg-
ular grid Z�/~�Z*. It is also desirable to examine the mean values of
_ the d-ispersion R
- d== ~ d;IR
r- i
and the standard deviation ? d2 which give some idea concerning the general
effectiveness of the observation system.
In the case of an aerological network of observations the errors in indi-
vidual measv.rements can be considered statistically independent values.
In this situztion the computations of the product of *he matrices in for-
mula (6) are carried out using single summation of the components
~nm - ~ xln ~ k!1 zlm
1
(ki are elements of the matrix K-1). The errors in the results of remote
sen~ing are [2, 12] spatially correlated. In this case the computation of
the elefients of the product of the m~atrices in (6) must be accomplished
on the basis of double summing
~nm - L.~ Zin ~ k~~ � Z~m = ~ Z,n ~,k~! � Z~m.
1 / i J
It is clear that the dependence ki as functions of the subscripts i, j
has a unimodal structure with a maximum with i= j. In addition, it can -
be assumed that the EOF components ~ zin~ vary quite smoothly as a -
- 47
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
function of the grid index i. Accordingly, proceeding on the basis of the
relationships cited above it can be concluded that the structures of the
pn~ a,1d p'nm data masses must be similar. However,due to the presence of
additional summ,~tion the nature of the dependence of the index must be
smoother in the case pnm. The abaolute values p'nn on the average can
eaceed the components pnn. This means that the effective dispersion of
exrors in correlated observar_ions is greater than for statistically in-
.flependent observations. The noted circumstance in this case is associated
with the fact that with addition of a symmetric matrix with zero diagonal
and non-negativE nondiag~nal matrices to a diagonal positively determined
matrix its norm eaill not decrease. _
48
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-00850R040240070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Comparative Analyei.s of Effectiveneas of Observation Systema
The computation scheme presented above can serve as a basis for evaluating
the effectivenese of existing and planned observation systems. The ob~ect
of cons~deration in tnis paper is the geopotential field H500� The purpose
of the inve~tigation iss a comparison of the information yield of data from
the aerological netWOrk and the system of satellite observations.
Existing eats~.lites in polar orbits make it possible to obtain indirect in-
formation on the global distribution of ineteorological parameters over a _
period of 10-12 hours; this requires a definite time correction of data
[8J. In the case of a planned system of 2-3 satellites, funrtioning simul-
taneously, the time interval is reduced to 3-6 hours an3 the problem of the
. asynchronicity of the ~ollected infor.mation ceases to be so significant.
According3.a~, we will not deal ~ith the time :,pect of the problem. As the
EOF we used the J. Rinne grid base [10], describing the region of the high
and temperate latitudes in the northern hemisphere. The mentioned EOF were
obtained on the basis of trial and errar and an analysis of a sample for
1965-1968 containing 228 records. This base very satisfactorily reproduces -
the principal peculiarities of the H50q field and is employed effectively
for numerical analysis and short-ra.zge forecasting purposes [10]. The base
is stipulated in a grid constructed using a polar stereographic pro~ection
and containing 1080 points of intersection. The distance between the grid
points ~f intersection is about 300 km. In the basic computations we used
_ tne first 20 functions from the set of EOF provided us through the kind-
ness of Doctor J. Rinne. This set of functions corresponds to the 96%
~ level of relative accumulated disgersion when using dependent statistics ,
' and the 91% level when using an independent sample [10]. For the consider-
ed set of EOF the lower ].imit of effective wa~~elengths is 4000 km. There-
fore, the corre~pondix~g evaluations of analytical accuracy to a consider-
able degree reflect large-scale fluctuations of the geopotential field.
The basis for the computations which were made was the actual positioning
� of the network of stations for aerological sounding a.nd the set of sub-
satellite points for polar orbits, one following the other each 20� in
longitude. It was assumed that the width of the band scanned by the spec-
trometer from a satellite is 500 krs at the surface [8]. For a simplifi~a-
tion of the computations as the points of data input we used the closest
points of intersection in the grid at which the EOF are stipula.*_e3. How-
ever, it must be remembered that the mathematical scheme considared above
does not impose any limitations on the totality of points in the ~ set.
,
Now we will proceed to an examination of the results of these computdtions.
First we will discuss the average characteristics of the effectiveness of
~ three observation systems: a) ground network of stations, b) system for
global remote eensing, c) combined system of aerological sounding and re-
mote sensing. The mean values of the relative analytical errors
~ -
~ 49
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
~
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR aFFICIAL USE ONLY
- of the H500 field are given in Table 1. It follows from the presented data
that in the absence of spatial correlation in the errors in remote measure-
ments the system of satellite monitoring could be not less effective than
the network of ground aerological stations. According to the evaluations in
[2, 11], the correlation radius of such errors is 1000 km or more. The use
of a correlation radius of 900 km in the computations leads to a decrease
_ in tY.e effecti-:~eness of analysis uf the geopotential field by a factor of
1 1/2. But ever? in this case the level of analytical errors when the anal-
ysis is based only on satellite data is only 30-50% higher than on the ba-
sis of aerological information. This circumstance makes it desirable to
_ have a comb ined observation system. These evaluations indicate that the
contribution of data from remote sounding (with use of optimum assimila-
_ tion schemes) ensures an increase in analytical accuracy by a factor of
- approximately 1 1/2. lt should be noted that the inclusion of inesosczle
geopotential field components in the analysis probably can somewhat change
- the relationship of the effectiveness indices in favor of the aerological
network of stations.
Table 1
- Mean Characteristics of Effectiveness ~ of Analysis of H500 Field for
Different Observation Systems
CxcTea~a A3ponorHVe- J~xcratiuitoaxoe Obseltxxex~iax -
xa6aaAeNNH 1 ctcax cerb 3oH~xpoeaHxe 3 ~~'i'e~a xa6na-
. � . Aexxfk 4
5 T04ilOC7b ASHHLIX J
~ia6nwAeHHA~, 15 ~ 30 30 a0 5J l 15r30 ib/30
6 KOppCJlAI(NA OI11N� 9 ZO
601C tIC7' ] HCT A~ 110T Aa HET~HCT HCT~1~S
a= X 10= 3,1 ~ 2,4 :i,li ~i,0 6,0 1,6 2.0
KEY:
- 1. Observation system 6. Correlation of errors
2. Aerological network 7. no
3. Remote sensing 8. yes
4. Combined 9. no/no
5. Accuracy of observation data, m 10. no/yes -
The relative accumulated dispersion, corresponding to the set of EOF [10], -
converges quite rapidly to 1. For example, for sets consisting of 16, 20,
24 and 28 first elements of the EOF b~'se, the mentioned values are 0.935,
0.961, 0.973, 0.982 respectively. Therefore, the dependence of the mean
- relative analytical errors (Table 2) on the number of functions with k~ 20
- is quite weak. The cited dzta ind3cate that even 20 EOF inake it possible
to obtain reasonable evaluations of the effectiveness of the considered
observation systems. -
50
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
~
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY `
Table 2
Mean Characteristics of Effecti~teness a2 x 102 of Analysis in Dependence
on Number of EOF ~
4 4xcno 30~
Currew xa6naAeHx~ ToyxocTb KoppenausA "
1 ,�axxw~ om3 oK lg I 20 I 24 I 2g -
,r AHCTa'H1~HORHOC 3UHAH-
Po~~~~ 30 Aa 7 3,b6 3,63 3,65 3,67
( O6'~qq'HNlHH8AOa1CTCM8 15/30 xer/.~a.8 2,U1 2,04 2,05 2,06
KEY:
1. Observation sy~tem ~
2. Accuracy of data, m
3. Correlation of errora
4. Number of EOF
5. Remute sensing
' 6. Combined system
- 7. yes
8. no/yes
Spatial Structure of Information Yield Characteristics
- Now we will discuss the spatial distribution of the mean analytical error
O' on the basis of data from the observation systems which we considered
above. First we will discuss the structure of the values of the mean nat-
ural fluctuations Or of Che geopotential field. The distribution repre-
aented in Fig. lb is characteriaed by two important anomalous zones which
are associated with the preaence of standing waves in the northeastern
part of Canada and Siberia. The indicated regions are joi:i~d by a"saddle"
extending out in the polar zone. We should note the complex spatial atruc-
ture of the statistica of fluctuations of the geopotential field in the
synoptically active zone of the northeastern Atlantic.
The use of data from aerological observations (Fig. la) ensures uniformity
in the coverage with data for a large part of r_he continental regions.
There is an extensive region of maximum analytical errors in the central
part of the North Atlantic which extendec? into the polar regions. The def-
icit of data availability is related to "uncc~vered regions."
Now we will examine the case of a remote measurements system. Different var-
iants of the computations are given in Figures 2, 3a. According to the es-
timates in [8], the �rEl values for the random value � figuring in formula
(3) fall in the range 30-40 m. Taking into account that �"b2 is 5-15 m[8j,
the computations were made for the cases de= 30 and 50 m. The spatial cor-
relation of errors in remote observations exerts no influence on the struc-
ture of tl~e or distribution ;Fig. 2). We can note only same smoothing
51
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
~
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
- r-- -
e) y I' 61 % ~ 1
~ ' c i
;l ,
I ~ ~ -T
o ~ ~
a B' I ~ ~ ~ ~ .
ts ~ , 1 ~J~J.' ~ I
1`''
; ,r~u7C'a1^;o ~ 19
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ f~e
e ~
F ~ ~ ~
~ ,
d ~ ~
~o U .
B ~
� 6 5 1J ~
a y 8 0 s. S - .
~ J`
Fig. 1. Spatial distribution of analytical errors Or of H~00 field on the
basis of data from the aerological network (O'f = 15 m) (a and "natural"
_ fluctuations of the field H500 ~~dam) (b). ,
a____ ~
~ ~ 6 od 61
J,S y P fl 1
4 a B J .
~
0 ~ ~ pq
9 yp ~ . 'b v
~ J .
f0
Z 4 o J 6
Fig. 2. Spatial distribution of analytical errors d of H50~ field accord-
ing to remote sensing data, a) 0'E = SO m(with correlat~on taken into ac-
count), b) o'� = 50 m(with~ut correlation taken into account).
01 .
o s~ ~ -'~s ds
a ~ 1, s
5
9
~ ~ ~ ~ � ~!S
liJ
~
S ~ ys �
~
~ U
~ Z
~3 ~ � a ~
Fig. 3. Spatial distribution of analytical errors d of H500 field, a) ac-
cording to data from remote sensing (cY~ = 30 m), b) according tr, data from
combined observation system: Cr~ = 15 m(aerology), d'E = 30 m(remote
sensing).
_ 52 -
FOR OFFIi,IAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
effect. The anomalous zones of maximum values in analytical errors cor-
respond to the position of regions of standing waves, where mesoscale dis-
turbances dominate, which cannot be satisfactorily indicated on the basis
of remote measurements [3]. The anomalous zone in the North Atlantic is -
most extensive. Its area is somewhat reduced with an increase in measure-
ment accuracy (Fig. 3a). The spatial distribution of analytical errors
has two anomalous regions of maximum values. One of them is situated on the
polar periphery of the Siberian zone of standing waves; another is situat-
- ed in the North Atlantic (Fig. 3b). It can be noted that the entire polar
basin is poorly supplied with data even with the availability of a combin-
ed observation system.
The noted nonuniformities in the spatial structure of data coverage charac-
- teristics indicate the desirability of formulating the problem of the op-
timum planning of an observation system. Below we will examine some as-
pects of th~s problem applicable to a remote sensing system.
Evaluations of Effectiveness of Contribution of Remote Measurements in In-
dividual Orbits ~
l
The volume of information stored in the on-board memory devices is always
limited. Therefore, it is necessary to clarify the most important regiona
of collection of data ensuring their maximum information contribution.
In connection wiYh the specifics of obtaining satellite information it is
desirable to examine the role of individual orbits. For this purpose we
_ computed two characteristics of the effectiveness.of ineasurements in indi-
vidual orbits, separated from one another by 20� in longitude. The infornta- -
tion contribution of the s-th orbit, as a result of analysis in the entire
network is described by the value
R - ~
ri t�,i~�,i )'.'R�
~1 .
The effectiveness of these same data for the group of subsatellite points
_ for a particular orbit is characterized by the ratio
_S + s ~
rs ~ ~ait.a~t~-/f~s. ~
2- Y IELs
In these expressions 0'ii are the standard analytical errors after input
of observational data in the s-th orbit, LS is a set consisting of Rs in- -
dices corresponding to the subsatellite points in a particular orbit. Thus,
_ averaging in the formula for ri is accomplished for the entire grid, but in
the expression for r2 is done only for the subsatellite points of thE cur-
_ rent orbit.
According to the cited data (Table 3), in a case when the presence of an
aerological network of staticns is not taken into account it is orbit No
. 6 which is most informative with respect to both characteristics. It passes
53
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
over anomalous regions of standing waves aver the northeastern part of
Canada and Siberia where there are maximum mean fluctuations of ~the geo-
potential field. Computations show that ortit No 9, situated to the west
of the Atlantic coast of Europe, is least informative. The excess of the
meximum values over the minimum rl and r2 values is about 40Y. Although
the data obtained fr~om individual orbits ensure some refining of the an-
alytical results over the entire area, this information is of particular
importance for the subsatellite points. Here the accuracy indices exceed
the mean values for the grid by a factor of 4.
Table 3
~r
I Global and Local Characteristics of
Effectiveness of Measurements in In-
aq dividual Orbits
. 1 Ao.~ror , be3 y4er~3 C yyero~
a 2pQa ~ a3ponur~tve- a3ponorxye-
c~:o~i ceTx cho~ cerx
� � ~o
0
B. ,u.la. A� X O I X 10 X lO~ I x 0~
41 r 0 Ib0 4,89 1,2~ 2,23 2,15
2 20 16U 4,71 1,30 2,22 2,1g
:3 4U 140 4.87 1,28 2,21 2,25
4 fi0 12U 4,ti7 1,23 2.22 2,UR
~ fiU 100 4,S1 1,3:3 2,24 1,96
B Icb $0 3,95 1,15 2,17 2,11
7 120 W1 4,44 1.4i~ 2,15 Z,a3
6 140 40 4,58 1,40 2,12 2,97
. 9 160 20 5,20 1,49 2,24 2,57
0 , 2 9 6 ,y KEY:
1. No of orbit 5. E
2. Longitude, � 6.
Fig. 4. Dependence of d2 on number of 3. Without allowance for aero-
orbital revolutions in which measurementa logical network
were made (the two extreme curves are 4� With allowance for aerolog-
given), ical network
In a case when the presence of a network of aerological stations is taken
into account the dependences of rl and r2 on longitude are in antiphase.
The most informative orbit (with respect to rl) is No 8, which passes over
the Atlantic Ocean, but is least effective for l~cal analysis purpoaea. On .
the other hand, orbit No 5, associated with Western Siberia, while being
least informative for global analysis purposes, is most effective for ob-
taining evaluations of geopotential at subsatellite points.
54 _
- FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Now we will discuss the possible reasons for this phenomenon. We will turn
to the spatial distribution of analytical errors when using data from the -
aerological network (Fig. la). In continental regions there ie a dominance
of the long-wave component. In the Atlantic Ocean area the wave spectrum to
_ a consi.derable degree contafns mesoscale fluctuations, whose remote sensing
is difficult [3]. Therefore, from the measurements made over the ocean we
for the most part extract information only on the long-wave component. Thus,
the low accuracy in reconstructing the mesoscale components causes an ap-
preciable increase in,r2 values for orbits passing over ocean areas.
Figure 4 shows the dependence of the d~ value on the number of orbits whose
measuremente were used in the analysis. The figure shows two extremal curves
- from nine possible sets of successive orbits. It can therefore be seen that
"data saturation" already sets in after 4 to 5 revolutions. This is attrib-
utable to the fact that the collected data relate primarily to macroscale
components of the geopotential field. A further increase in the density and
volume of data does not lead to a substantial refinement of the analytical
resulta.
55
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
flIBLIOGRAPHY
_ 1. Gubanova, S. I., Mashkovich, S. A., "Evaluation of the Informativeness -
of Systems for Aerological and Satellite Observations," METEOROLOGIYA
I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology ar~d Hydrology), No 12, 1977.
2. Denisov, S. G., Pokrovskiy, 0. M., "Correction of an Optical Model of
the Atmosphere in Solving the Thermal Sounding Problem," IZV. AN SSSR,
FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol 13, No 10, 1977.
3. Pokrovskiy, 0. M., Denisov, S. G., "Determination of the Spectral ~
Structure of the Temperature a.:id Geopotential Fields Using Data from
Remote Measurements," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA, No 4, 1978.
4. Pokrovskiy, 0. M., Ivanykin, Ye. Ye., "Numerical Analysis of the Geo-
potential Field Using Data from Remote Sensing of the Atmosphere,"
METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA, No 7, 1976.
, 5. Bengtsson, L., "Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation of Meteorological
Observat~.ons," GARP PUBLICATIOidS SERIES, i1o 15, j,~10/ICSU, Geneva,
Switzerland, 1975.
6. Graddock, J. M., Flood, C. R., "Eigenvectors for Representing the 500-
mb Geopotential Surface Over the Northern Hemisphere," QUART. J. ROY.
METEOROL. SOC., Vol 96, 1969.
7. Flattery, T., "Special Models for Global Analysis and Forecasting,"
AIR WEATHER SERVICE TECHN: REP., No 242, 1970.
8. Halem, M., Ghil, M., Atlas, R., Susskind, J., "The GISS Sounding Tem-
perature Impact Test," NASA TECHN. MEM. 78063, Goddard Space Flight
Center, Md., 1978.
9. Pokrovsky, 0. r4., Ivanykin, E. E., "Spatial Analysis of Temperature
and Geopotential Fields on the Basis of Data from Remote Sounding of
the Atmosphere," ZEITSCHRIFT FUR riETEOROLOGIE, Band 28, Heft 1, 1978.
10. Rinne, J., "Investigation of the Forecasting Error of a Simple Baro-
tropic riodel With the Aid of Empirical Ortho~onal Function," GEOPIiYS-
� ICS, Helsinki. Vol 11, No 2, 1971.
11. Schlatter, T. W., ~ranstator, G. W., ERRORS ItJ PlIMBUS-6 TEMPERATURE
PROFILES AND THEIR SPATIAL CORRELATION, FREPRINT NCAR, Ms. 78/0501-
1, 1978.
56
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
UDC 551.509.6
CALCULATING THE ZONE OF CLEARING FROM A LINEAR HEAT SOURCE IN CLOUDS
Moscow METEORf?LOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No I, Jan 80 pp 46-51
[Article by Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences A. S. Kabanov
and M. M. Troyanov, Institute of Experimental Meteorology, submitted for
publication 22 May 1979]
Abstract: The autfiors determined the quantita-
tive relationships between the extent of zones
of clearing formed by the temperature field
from a linear heat source and the parameters
of the cloud medium. The fieat source was situ-
ated hoth far from the underlying surface and
near it. W[ien the heat source was situated near
the underlqing surface it was assumed that the
velocity of the oncoming flow and heat conduc-
tivity increase with altitude in accordance with
a power law. The influen~e of convection on reg-
ular deformation of the clearing zone was ana-
lyzed.
[Text) The hea.t method for dissipating a fog has long been in use. In a
- number of coun~:ries (United States, Great Britain, France, Japan) studies
l~ave been made of the energy scattering of a fog. In France a system for
clearing a fog using turbojet engines situated on a landing strip has been
introduced. There are theor~tical and experimental studies devoted to the
clearing of clouds under the influence of different heat sources, such as
- [2, 7, 8]. However, theoretical computations of the heat method essential- _
ly involve an estimate of the quantity of heat for the evaporation of a
fog in a definite volume from tY~e balance ratio: in arder to evaporate a
fog in a particular volum~ it is necessary that this volume be heated by -
1-2�C. In this case no allowance is made for the nonuniformity of the
- field of temperature disturbances formed by the local heat source, which
can lead to substantial errors. A recently published study [1] gives a
numerical model for computing the zone of clearing from a point heat
source with a constant diffusion coefficient and wind velocity and w~.thout
convection taken into account. In this study there is no clarification of
- 57
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~
the interrelationship between different characteristics of the clearing
zone and the zone of undisturbed effect of the medium.
This paper has the ob3ective of determining the principal quantitative re- -
lationships between the parameters of the clearing zone in the cloud medium
from a linear heat source and the characteristics of the medium, and also
the source intensity. Although it must be admitted that the most realistic
allowance for all the interrelated processes is possible on the basis of
development of a numerical model, nevertheless the simplified model taken
here as a basis makea it possible to attain a satisfactory underatanding
of the principal interrelationships and to obtain quantitative evaluations
important for practical purposes.
Formulation of problem. Assume that a linear heat source of infinite length
with the intensity Q(Q is the quantity of heat released into a unit length
in a unit time) is operative in a fog at the height h from the earth`s sur-
face. We will select a Cartesian coordinate system in such a way that the
y-axis coincides with the source, the z-axis is directed upward. An exter-
nal flux moving with the velocity U~ 0 is stipulated along the x-axis. In
a cloud medium undisturbed by any phenomenon the specific moisture content
_ Pp a Wp+q~(Tp) is a stipulated constant value. Here W~ is specific liquid- -
water content, q~(T~) is specific humidity, equal to saturated humidity at
the undisturbed temperature T~. The problem involves determination of the �
, boundary of the region of clearing S at which the liquid-water content of
the fog becomes equal to zero.
We will asswne that the vapor in the cloud medium outside the clearing zone
is in a saturated state and that the liquid-drop moisture is completely en-
trained by the air flow. Then the distribution of specific liquid-water con-
tent outside the clearing zone is instantaneously ad~usted under the tem-
perature field tormed by the heat source, that is (T' is a disturbance of
bar_kground temperature) - - - - -
~~x~ z, t) = po - 9 I To T' (x, a, 1]~ _
t ~1 ~ -
At the bound~ry S the specif$,c iiquid-water content ~s equal to zero and
therefore ----_~__..r._.__.
9.ITo + TJ(x, z, t)j = Po, ' (2~
Equation (2) is fundamental for determining the boundary S; for computing S
it is necessary to know the temperature field T'.
For liquid-water contents ~~bserved in a fog there is satisfaction of the
condition . LT~
P=RTz�1,
0 0 .
where L is the specific latent heat of condensation of water, Ry is the
_ water vapor gas constant. Expansion of the q value in (2) with an accuracy
to the linear term containing ~.makes it possible to represent equation
(2) in the form
- R�T� W . (3)
s ~ Lq~~ �
58
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Expression (3) was derived with neglecting of small changes in moisture
content due to compressibiZity of the medium caused by a temperature
change.
Assuming the coefficient of turbulent diffusion for water vapor to be equal
to the coefficient of turbulent thermal conductivity 7?'-, the stationary
equation for temperature in the cloud medium, taking phase transitions into
account, in accordance with (4J, can be represented by transformation to the
form ' dT' , - Q - - - _
U az� ;c~ T- a Lpp G~X~ G~2~, 0= tlX~ ~sy . (4)
where Q= const, is air density, cp is the specific heat capacity of
the air at constant pressure, , _ _
a=(1 } 9~~ 1'' ~
~ cpRtiTe f
With T~ = 283 K oC ~ 0.45.
The parameter aC~0 Y00 f
�
~ ~ 2
Z0~ i j~ a iC.~II
~ ~ ~
400 ~ I ~
/ ~Z~
/ l
600 / 1
I ~
1 ~
B00
~ -
M .
I'ig. 4. Mean (for each horizon) kinetic energy E~ (1, 2) and ratio of kin-
etic energies Ek/E~ (1', 2'). 1) A~,= 10~ cm /sec, prediction; 2) A~,=
106 cm2/sec, diagnosis; 1') Eki - A~, = 0, N= 106 cm2/sec, predict~on;2Ek
- A~, = 106 cm2/sec; 2') Ek - A~ = 0, diagnosis; E~ - Ai = 10 cm /
sec, diagnosis.
I
95
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
As we have already mentioned, the A. M. I1'in scheme and the weighted mean
scheme are close to one another, as is confirmed by computatiuns made us-
ing both schemes. In particular, this is indicated by Fig. 2, which shows
= the zonal section of the level surface along the parallel 43�N (curve I)
and the density field (curves II and III) at the horizons 100 and 300 m
respectively. The cti.rves were obtained using the A. M. Il'in scheme (dashed
curve). It follows trom numerical experiments that the A. M. I1'in scheme
becomes unsta~~.~ w~th values of the coefficients of turbulent exchange -
greater than 10~ c~n2/sec. With respect to the weighted mean scheme, it en-
sures stability even with a value of the coefficient of turbulent viscosity
N.. = 105 cm2/sec. Now we wi11 discuss the results of computations obtained -
using the weighted mean scheme proposed by Fiadeiro and Veronis.
Prognostic computations have indicated that with a decrease in � the cy-
clonic centers, filled with dense water masses, are broadened and deepened,
[dith an increase in the coefficient of turbulent exchange the ~rognostic
fields become smoother, that is, physical viscosity dominates over the re- ~
maining effects. By comparing the zonal sECtions of the computed density
fields at different horizons ifi can be demonstrated that the convexity of
the isopycnic line decreases appreciably with an ir..crease in ~,t.. It is
easy to see zones of upwelling of deep waters coinciding with the centers
~ of the principal cyclonic rings.
It should be noted that the variation of the coefficient of lateral mixing
exerts a greater influence on the results of prognostic computations. In
order to confirm what we have said, we will examine Fig. 3(section along
the parallel 43�N), in which we have presented curves corres~onding t~
the level surface isolines for different values of the coefficients A~ ar.d
- The deviation of the 1' curve (no allowance for the coefficient of
ho~izontal exchange A~; prognostic computations) from curve 1(A lU6
cm /sec; prognostic computations) is much greater than the deviations of
the 2' curves (A~, not taken into account; diagnostic computations) and
the 2 curves (A Z= 106 cm2/sec; diagnostic computations) from one another.
In analyzing the figure we note that the dashed curve corresponding t~o the
_ case of neglecting of the turbulent-topogenic effect (in the vorticity equa-
tion only the emphasized term is taken into account), in places of the
raaximum deviation of ~he 1 and 1' curves is held closer to the 1' curve.
This fact indicates that the nature of the deviations to a high degree
is related to the joint influence of relief and turbulence on the dynamics _
of currents.
Model computations indicated that a further increase in the coefficient of
tiorizontal turbulent exchange A~ leads to an increase in the role of the
turbulent-topogenic factor. But, as is easy to see, the value A~ = 106 cm~/
sec is the most reasonable for the Black Sea from the physical point of
view. In actuality, using the Joseph-Zendner formula we have
A~ = lh : lU" cm2/sec, .
96
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
where P= 1.5 ,:m/sec is the mean "diffusion rateo" -
As an illu~:.~tration of the influ.ence of the integral effect of lateral ex-
chunge on dynamics of the aea we computed the mean (for eacli horiaon) kin-
' etic energy Ek and the ratio of the kinet~c energies E~/E (the super-
script i corresponds to the case Ap~= 0, the superscript corresponds to
allowance for Ai) for different values of the coefficients A~ and �(Fig.
4). It can be seen that the kin2tic energy in prognostic computations
(curve 1) attenuates more rapidly with deptt~ than in diagnostic computa-
tions (curve 2). The ratio c,f energies Ek/E~ increases (curves 1', 2'),
which indicates ihat the turbulent effects are most significant in the -
lower layers of the sea. In general, an increase in the coefricient of
turbulent mixing leads to a general decrease in the energy of inean motion
for the entire sea, which is evidently related to the assumption of a
dissipative nature of turbulent exchange.
The model (mathematicall time for stabilization of the process of reckon-
ing of the prognostic problem in dependence on the variant varied in the
range 7-9 months. All the computations were ma.de on an IBM-370 computer `
at the Cer.~tral Institute of Sc~antific and Technical Z~~format~ton (Sofia,
3ulgaria).
In conclusion the authors express ~;incere appreciatian to A. S. Sarkisyan
for attention to the work and a number of valuable comments.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. I1'in, A. M., "Difference Scheme for a Dif.ferential Equation With a
Small Parameter With a Higher Derivative," MATEMATICHESKIYE ZAMETKI
(Mathematical Notes), No 6, Vyp 2, 1969.
2. Kozlov, V. F., "One Method for Determir_ing the Integral Characteris-
tics of a Baroclinic Ocean," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorol-
, ogy and Hydrology), No 6, 1976.
- 3. Sarkisyan, p. S., CHISLENNYY ANALIZ I PROGNOZA MORSKIKH TECHENIY (Nu-
- merical Analysis and Prediction of Sea Currents), Leningrad, Gidro-
meteoizdat, 1977.
- 4. Sarkisyan, A. S., Dzhioyev, T. Z., Gamsakhurdiya, G. ',"Diagnostic
Computations of d Current in the Black Sea," ISSLEDO~ArTIYA PO DINAM-
IKE VOD I GIDROKHIMII CHERNOGO MORYA (Investigations of Dynamics of
Waters and Hydrochemistry of the Black Sea), Noscow, 1978.
~ 5. Fiadeiro, M. E., Veronis, G., "On Weighted-Mean Schemes for the Finite-
Difference Approximation to the Advection-Diffusion Equation," TELLUS,
~ Vol 29, 1977,
97
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY -
UDC 528.7+551,578.46(23)
A~;irL GAMriA SURVEY OF THE SNOW COVER IN MOUNTAINS
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GzDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 80 pp 77-83
[Article by Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences M. V. Nikiforov,
Institute of Experimental Meteorology, submitted for publication 4 Sept~mber
1978]
Abstract: A study was made of the potential
possibility of firoadening the range of sno~~
reserve~ measured in a g~mma survey by me~ns
- of carrytng out surveys over terrain with a
great nonuniformity in depth of the snow
cover and the use of a priori inforination on � -
the shape of the distribution curve for the `
snoar reserves over an area. In the case of
a ga~na distribution it is shown that the
mean snow reserves for a territory accessible
to measurements with an accuracy of 10-15% ~
can attain 2000-5000 mm of water equivalent
with values of the variation coefficient 0.7- ~
1.0. The practical use of the considered sur-
vey procedure is discussed.
IText] A gamma survey of the snow cover is based on the effect of the atten-
uation of the gamma radiation of natural radioactive elements present in the
soil by snow [3-5]. The existing method for aircraft snow surveys [5, 6] is
l~ased on a physical-mathema~ical model of a homogeneous emitting-absorbing
half-space covered by a unifo~m layer of an inactive absorber snow. The
dependence of the intensity of gamma radiation of soils (I) at the height
h above the snow is expressed well by the formula
. _ _
I_ l+Ym eXp(-a~s~.h~~~ _ ~1~
where w is the moisture content of the soil by weight, S is the water re-
serve in the snow cover, Ipp is the I value with S= h= w= 0; y is a
~ coefficient taking into account the difference in the absorbing properties
of the soil (rock) skeleton and water ('y = 1.11); oC is the coefficien~. of
attenuation of gamma radiation by water, dependent on the energy of the
measured radiation.
. 98
: FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
~
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
The height h in formula (1) is expressed in units of thickness of a water
- layer equivalent in absorhing capacity to the air layer between the earth`s
_ surface and the ohservation point. In Soviet-pr.uduced apparatus the detec-
tor of gamma radiation is a scintillation counter with a monocrystal of
sodium iodide with a diameter of 150 mm and a height of 100 mm. The total
_ Intensity of gamma radiation is measured in the energy range from 0.02 to
3.0 MeV. In this case the coefficient oC is 0.0065 mm 1 and is not depend-
ent on the composition of the natural radioactive elements in the soils ~
� (rocks).
The water reserves in the snow cover are computed using the results of two
r~easurements, the first of which is carried out before the falling of snow
and the second at the time of a snow survey. The changes in soil moisture
content during the time hetween mea3urements are not taken into account.
1 !
S- a In +h,-k:, (2)
where the subscripts 1 and 2 apply to the first and second measurements
respectively.
The fundamental limitation on the magnitude of the snow reserves which can
' be measured with a stipulated accuracy is governed by the statistical na-
ture of radioactive decay and the registry of nuclear radiations. In actual
practice this limit is not achieved due to instrumental-methodological
errors and deviations of accual survey conditions from the initial phys-
- ical-mathematical mo~ial.
. On the lowlands measurements from an aircra_`�t are made from an altitude of
_ 50-J00 m. The depth (height) is measured by an aircraft radioaltimeter with
an accuracy of 2-3 m, which leads to errors in determining snow reserves of
'l-3 mm. The total error (taking into account all the interfering factors)
does not exceed 10 mm if the measured snow reserv~es fall in the range 300-
4U0 mm.
In the mountains flights with a low altitude over the terrain are possible
only in a helicopter over relatively "even" sectors of macro- and meso- -
relief: along slopes, over terraces, valleys, plateaus, flattish watpr
- divides, etc. For such sectors the gamma field created in the surface lay-
er of the atmosphere by natural radioactive soil (rock) elements can be
considered at the flight altitude to coincide with the field of an infin-
ite emitting-absorbing half-space. We will limit ourselves to an examina-
tion of only such surveys and the only difference in our physical-mathe-
matical madel from a"lowland" survey is in allowance for the nonuniform-
ity of snow depth in the terrain.
It is obvious thai, the gamma radiation of soils in the segment of the route
where the liquid water content of the snow is in the interval from S to S+ ~
dS will be attenuated hy snow by a factor of es. If F(S) is the distrib-
ution function for snow reserves along the route the contribution of the
99
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY _
radiatior. of all such segments of the route to the mean intensity over it
at the r eight h~rill he
dl-loexp(-~, h-a S)F(S)d,.C (3)
and the intensi~y averaged along the entire route will be
~
1= Ip exp a h) ~ F(S) exp a S) dS;
o ~4~
1m
~o_1+7w. -
It can tse shown that with a nonu~iform depth of the snow and any form of
the distribution function F(S) the gamma radiation of soils (rocks) is at-
- tenuated by the snow on the average over the area (along the route) to a .
lesser degree than in the case of its uniform depth and accordingly, the
intensity of radiation over the nonuniformly deposited snow can be measur-
ed more precisely. Therefore, there is basis for assuming that under defin-
ite conditions the upper boundary of the snow reserves measurable by a
h gamma survey in the case of a nonuniform depth of the snow can be greater .
than is the case on the plain.
Now in expression (4) we will proceed from the distribution function for
sno~t reserves F(S) to the distribution function for the modular coefficient
of snow reserves P(k) (k = S/S, where S is the rhean snow reserve along
the route). Taking into account that F(S)dS = P(k)dk, we obtain
M _ . _
1= exp n h) f P(k) cxn x Sk) dk. ~5~
0
- The solution (5) for S gives a"working formula" for computing the mean
water reaerve in the snow cover along the route through the results of
measurements of the intensity of gamma radiation. It is understandable
i:hat the form of the ~~rking formula is dependent on the shape of the
distribution curve of the modular coefficient of snow reserves. According-
ly, in order to carry out aerial gamma surveys of the snow cover over te~
rain with nonuniformly deposited snow it is necessary to have a priori in-
formation on the shape of the distribution curve.
Now we will consider a specific example. We will assume that the shape of
the distribution curve for snow reserves is known in advance and coincides
with the ga~�na dis~ribution.[See i~ote], that is ~
P (k) _ k~-~ eX~ ~ (6) -
where 1/C~, Cv is the coefficient of variations of snow reserves;
( ~ ) is the gamma function.
.100
- FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
I
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
[Note] For the open terrain of a plain such a coincidence is a firmly es-
tahlished fact j7-]_0]. In the sectors of mountainous terrain which we con-
sidered the mechaniam of formation of nonuniformities of the snow cover
is similar to that in the lowlands: this is a redistribution of the snow
by the wind in microrelief details. But the wind in the mountains is
stronger and the terrain is more dissected. Therefore the variability of
the s~iow is greater.]
= Substituting (6) into (5) and carrying out integration, we obtain
I = /o exp a h) .
. ? (7)
~a S Cv -1- ~ ) ~v
The fornsla for computing the mean snow reserve S along the route in this
case will have the form
~ 2
t ~
S ` ~8~
_ Q ~`'eXc~ c a ca r~, - h_~? - i l.
~
where the subscripts 1 and 2 have the same value as in (2).
Since we consider the coefficients OC and Cv to be pre~isely known, the ex-
pression fo r the relative mean square error in the snow surveys, accord-
ing to the theory of errors, will have the form
I
= a S (a SCv -E- 1} Y o~~ o~ + 2 Q= Qh ~ ~g~
where ~ I1, S I2 are the relative mean square errors in measuring I1 and
I2, o"h is the error in measLring height for a single flight, whose val-
ue is not r~ependent on the snow reserves, the intensity of gamma radia-
tion and under the considered conditions is tl:e same as in the plains,
2-3 mm water equivalent.
- Under real conditions of aerial snow surveys the dispersion of the measure-
ment for the intensity of gamma radiation for th~ most part consiAts of
three terms, each of which in its own way is dependent on the measured
- intensity, and accordingly, on the snow reserves:
~
= G" ~i- .l. i,'-' /~O~
/ 11 i \
where ~ const is a value not dependent on the level of the gamma radi-
ation. The a'~ value arises due to fluctuations of instrument response,
flight velocity, deviations from the route and is 2-3% [6); ~~St is the
_ error caused by the statistical nature of the radioactive decay and the
interaction of gamma quanta with matter. The ~ St value is dependent on
the measured intensity I, the noise level Iback and the measurement time
1 + .
S~T t + r~ ~ C 11 ~
101
FOR OFFICIAL USE O~Y
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
where t is measurement time over the route; tback is the time for measur-
Lng Iback.' ~~er the route the useful radiation is measured as a total
~~ith the interfering r~diation, and the interfering radiation is measured
separately either over the water hody or at Gn adequate distance from
the earth. As a result, the intensity of the useful radiation is obtained
as the difference in the results of these two measurements). Finally, the ~
last term on the right-hand side of expression (10) ~ack is govern-
ed by methodological errors in determining the level of interferiiig radia-
tions Iback' .
s~, (12)
- ( ~ = back J
where ~back ls dependent on I. As a result we have
Z_ l 1~ r+ t~ Q~ (13)
S~ Eo It ~ ( r f~ ) .
Table 1 -
Relative Mean Square Errors in Snow Surveys (in Percent) for Different De-
grees of Nonuniformity of Snow Depth _
1 Cpe,qNNA~ c~{erosaaac, .k.K
Cp ,~1 ,
200 I 500 I 70) I 1000 I 1500 I 20~0 I 3000 I 4000 I 6000 -
0 3,3 2.6 7,0 34 > 100 > l00 >10~
25 3,6 2,8 4,9 20 > 10~ >100 >100 -
50 4,3 3,l 3,9 6,5 16,6 45 >lU0 > 100 > 100
70 5,3 4,0 4,0 5,0 7,4 1U,6 21 37 > 100
100 7,3 5,8 5,6 5,h 6,2 7,0 8,6 10,4 14,4
KEY:
1) Mean snow reserve, mm
It is clear from (13) that the values of the second and third terms can ~e
regulated hy a change in the observation time t and tback~ Whereas the val-
ue of the last back~i~ iS not suhject to such regulation. Its decrease
is possible only by~ an increase in instrument response to useful radiation
_ (I) and an increase in noise immunity, that is, a decrease in Q' s Tab le
1 gives the results of estimates of the errors in snow surveys for~values
of the coeffi.cient of variations of snow reserves from 0 to 1.0. The esti- -
J .:.A*.es were made for the case of carrying out of gamma surveys usir~g Soviet
102
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY -
aerial snow-measuring apparatus, characterized by the foll~wing parameters:
ID = 1000 quanta/sec, Iback - 100 quanta/sec, b p= 2%, ~back - 3 quanta/
sec, o'h = 3 mm. The measurement times over the route and the back~round
- were 100 sec each.
Table 1 showa that with Cy values from 0 to 50% (lowland conditions) with -
an accuracy to 10-15% snow reserves to 800-1100 mm are measured, whereas
for values Cy = 0.7 and 1.0 (mountainous conditions jl, 2]} reserves up to
2000-5000 mm are measured. It should be noted that the principal contrib-
ution to the errors in snow surveys is from errors in taking in~erfering
- radiations (~back~ into account.
The cited estimates must be regarded as an illustration of the fundamental
- possibility of broadening the field of use of aerial gamma surveys of the
snow cover since they caere oiitained for a case when the form of the dis-
tribution curve for the modular coefficient of snow reserves is precisely
l:nown. In actual practice it can be known only approximately, which causes
additional errors not taken into account in Table 1.
Now we will estimate the error arising as a result of the inaccuracy in
knowledge of th~ distribution curve for the modular coefficient of snow
reserves. As before, we will assume that the shape of the curve coincides
with the gamma distribution, but the coefficient of variations is known in-
exactly. We will use b_ to denote the relative mean square error in measur-
ing the mean snow reserves S along the route as a result of the error in
lcnowledge of C~, equal to s ~v. In accordance with the theory of errors,
from (8) we obtain _ _ _ _ .
~c~ - aSC; I1-}'(aSC~ 1)(In (aSC;-f- 1) -1)) a~~ , (14)
The value of the total error will be equal to
' . aA ! V' a~- .
. s s ~ (15)
v
It is clear from (15) that with values of the ratio S,S I~'S less than unity
the decisive role in the value of the total error is p~ ed by ~ and the
S
errors in tt~e knowledge of C~ can be_ neglected. When
as I os > 1
C9
the picture is reversed. In order for the total measurement error for snow
reserves along the route not to exceed 10-15~, the coefficients of varia-
tions must be known with the accuracy cited in Table 2.
Table 2 shows that:
l. The requirements on the accuracy of knowledge of Cv increase with an in-
crease in the snow reserves. -
103
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONT~Y
2. The differences in the requirements on the accuracy of a knowledge of
; Cy for C~ = 7Q% and C~ - 100% are small.
Table 2
Results of Evaiuations ~f Admissib~le 3rrors in A Priori Knowledge of~the
C~ Value in Gamma Surveys of che Snaw Cover With a 10-15% Accuracy Using
Real Soviet-Produced Instrumentation. Errors are Expressed in the Same
Unirs as the Caefficients of Variations
, _ 1 Cpe~t~t~?~ cHCro3anac, a~x
C9 ~ 200 500 I 700 1000 I I500 ~ 2000 I 3000 I 4000
I I _
70 9-15 4-7 4-6 3-4 2-3 I 1-2 - -
100 9-17 5-8 4-6 3-5 2-4 I?--4 1~ 1-2
KEY:
1. Mean snow reserve, mm
~fia*_ is the real accuracy of a priori knowledge of the value of the .^.oef-
ficient of variations for snow reserves ~n aerial snow-measuring routes and
what are the prosp2cts for increasing this accuracy? The coefficient of
spatial variations for snow res~rves in the mountains, according to data
- in the literature [1, 2], does not exceed 100% and the variability of the
snow reserves in the mountains is greater than in the lowland, where Cv ~
50Y. If it is assumed that in mountainous terrain any Cv value in the
range from 50 to 100% can be encountered with an equal probability, and
if the mean value (75%) is used in the computations, the mean square scat-
ter of the actual values about this mean, tha~ is, the very error in a
priori knowledge of C~, which is gi~aen in Table 2, is 14.4%. The classif-
ication of terrain on the basis of the characteristics of variability of
the enow cover evidently alreaay at the present time makes it possible to
break down the entire mentioned range of C~ changes into 2-3 sectors, each ~
with a width of 15-20%? which reduces the errors in a priori knowledge to -
4-5% respectively, and accordingly, makes it possible ta determine the
snow reserves to 1000-2000 mm with an accuracy to 10-15%. Further studies
in the direction of classification of mountainous territories on the basis
of the nature of variability of the snow cover will evidently raiae the
- limit of the s:~ow reserves which can be investigated by gamma surveys to
2500-3000 mm.
It must be remembered that the errors in knowledge of the C~ value can be
- of two types:
1) Inexact knowledge of the mean Cv value for the defined terrain class.
Such errors lead to systematic understatements or exaggerations of the
mean values of the snow reserves even with averaging for a large number
of routes.
104
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
~
FOR OFFICIAL USE C~NLY
- 2) Random deviation of the Cv value on the route from the mean value as a
result of the finite length of the route. Such stattstical errors will be
. reduced with increas3ng:length of the route or with averaging of snow re-
serves along a great number of routes.
~ Now we will disciiss ways in wnich to realize the considered survey proced-
ure in actual practice. Obviously, first it is necessary to investigate
the curves of distribution of snowr reserves for those types of mountain-
ous territories mer.tioned in this article. In our opinion, the available
- observational data an~ tfieoretical analyses are adequate for solving this
prohlem in the first approximation. At the same time it is necessary to
improve instrumentation in the direction of an increase in its respunse
and noise immunity. The means for bringing about this improvement is clear
a single-crystal scintillation counter must be replaced by a multicrys-
tal spectrometric counter gnd chang:~ over to the registry of the spectral -
- line of thorium with an energy of 2.62 MeV, for which the background is
only cosmic radiation weak and stable. The estimates of the errors for
such instrumentation, similar to those cited in Table 1, show that with a
10-15% accuracy it is possible to measure the mean snow reserves to 6000-
8000 mm when C~ = 0.7-1.0.
We feel th.at theoretical analyses muet be carried out in two directions:
in gamir~a field theory change over to a model which takes meso- and macro-
relief into account; estimate errors in surveys resulting from statistical
variations in the shape of the distribution curve for individual routes
and the dependence of the value of these errors on the length of the route.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Abal'yan, T. S., et al., "Use of an Aerial Photographic Survey for
Studying the Snow Cover in the Mountain Basin of the Varzob River,"
TRUDY GIDROMETTSENTRA SSSR (Transactions of the USSR Hydrometeorolog-
ical Center), 1971.
2. Denisov, Yu. M., "Method for Computing the Distribution of the Snow '
Cover in Mountains Using Data from Aerial Photographic Surveys and
Air Temperature," IZV. AN UZB. SSR, SERIYA TEKHN. NAUK (News of the
Academy of Sciences Uzbek SSR, Series on Technical Sciences), No 6, .
- 1963. .
3. Zotimov, N. V., "Surface Method for Measuring Water Reserves in the
- Snow Using the Radioactivity of Water," TRUDY GGI (Transactions of
_ the State Hydrological Institute), No 130, 1965.
4. Kogan~ R. M., et al., "Determination of the Moisture Reserves in the
Snow Cover by the Method of an Aircraft Gamma Si~rvey," METEOROLOGIYA
I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology and Hydrology), No 4, 1965. ~
105
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
- 5. GAMMA-S"YEMKA ZAPASOV VODY V POCHVE I NA YEYE POVERKHNOSTI (Gamma Sur-
vey of Water Reserves in the Soil and at its Surface), edited by M. V.
Nikiforov and A. v. Pegoyev, TRUDY IEM (Transactions of the Institute
of Experimental Meteorology), No 1(35), 1974.
6. UKAZANIYA PO PROIZVODSTVtJ SAMOLETNOY GANi~iA-S"YErIICI SNEZHNOGO POKROVA
(Instructions on Carrying Out an Aircraft Gamma Survey of the Snow ~
Cover), Moscow, Gidrometeoizdat, 1971.
7. Komarov, V. D., VESENNIY STOK RAVNINNYKH REK YEVROPEYSKOY CHASTI SSSR,
USLOVIYA YEGO FORMIROVANIYA I 1~SIETODY PROGNUZOV (Spring Runoff of Low-
land Rivers in the European USSR, Conditions for its Formation and
Forecasting Methods), Moscow, Gidrometeoizdat, 1959.
8. Kuz'min, P. P., FORM~~,ROVANIYE SNEZHNOGO POKROVA I METODY SNEGOS"YEMOK .
(Formation of Snow Cover and Snow-Surveying Methods), Leningrad,
Gidrometeoizdat, 1966.
9. Nikiforov, M. V., "Dimensions of Spatial Inhomogeneities and D3stribu- -
tion Curves of Maximum Snow Reserves on a I,owland," TRUDY IEM, No 1
(35), 1974.
10. Sofiyan, A. P., Mazur, A. I., "Stochastic Computation of Depth of the
- Snow Cover With Allowance for Territorial Nonuniformity of Depositior.," -
METEQROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA, No 5, 1974. -
~ 106
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAI, USE ONLY
UDC 556.535.6
STRUCTURE AND REFORMATION OF SAND RIDGES -
~ Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, ;Ian 80 pp 84-87
[Article by Candidate of Geographical Sciences A. A. Levashov, Leningrad
Hydrometeorological Institute, submitted for publication 2 July 1979J
Abstract: The article gives the results of field
inveatiaations of the structure and reformation
of ridges.
[Text] An extensive literature has been devoted to the problems involved
in the origin, movement, study of parameters and classification of sand
ridges of different scales [1-8]. PTevertheless, attempts at application
of the results to practical camputations, as noted by B. F. Snishchenko
and Z. D. Kopaliani [8], convincingly demonstrate that these investiga- _
- tions must be continued. In tt~e hydrological literature little attention
~ has been given to the internal structure of the ridges and the mechanism
of their reformation. A true idea concerning this structure can be ob-
tained with the development of field observations. Data from numerous lab-
oratory experiments cannot reveal the full physical picture of structure
- of the ri~ges because when carrying out the experiments as a rule no al-
lowance has been made for numerous natural factors. At the same time these
exert an effect on the process of ridge formation and leave a�trace in their
internal structure.
_ During the years 1976-1978, on the Nadym and Pur Rivers, the author carried
out special field observations of the structure of dry sand ridges remain-
ing on the surfaces of exposed bars. For example, on a bar with a length
of 920 m and a width of 130 m we studied 77 ridges with an average length
of 12.0 m and a height of 0.24 m. In order to investigate the internal
structure of the ridges for several of them (Figures 1, 2) we obtained sec-
tions (small ditches were dug) from the base of the preceding ridge to
the crest of the next. The depth of the ditch reached the surface of the -
bar existing prior to high water and in a number of cases considerably be-
low this surface. The following was observed in the sections of ridges not
subjected to wind erosion. The ridges formed by the last high water differed
- greatly from the lower layers of the bar in the stratification of deposits.
The inclination of the layers of the downstream slope of the ridge
107
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY '
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
(steepness of dropoff), according to numerous measurements (Figures 2, 3)~
is 36�, which is equal to the natural slope of sand. This is evidence that
� the sand particles tumble from the crest into the trough under the influ-
ence of their own weight. At the base of the ridges it is easy to trace
- a dark, relatively horizontal band (Fig. 1, 2) with a thickness of 1-1.5
_ cm. It was represented by silty particles and fine woody residue usually
observed in the troughs among ridges which are buried by a creeping ridge.
- The band passes through the entire ridge, that is, from the bottom of one
to the bottom of the other.
~
t ~Z ,i
. ~ a , ~ ~ ' ~ ~ ~ '~nx~
. ~ ~ ~ . . . .
~
R y ~
,~.a . ~ ~ r,,, . ;
. ;,:;c . . ' y
.
;~'.21r a' ~ . nw , u
~ t' I
{3^s . . . . ~ .
x,'. _
a ` "r
i~ W I II
~
v 20 km.] Thus, in all these cases under natural conditions the prin-
cipal reason for the attenuation of radiation at 10-13 � m is molecular ab-
sorption, described by expression (7).
137
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY -
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
' FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY `
With ~comp C 0.05, which corresponds to winter conditions in the middle
_ latitudes, the ratio '~ex~~comp increases considerably, indicating the
need for introducing the additional mechanism of attenuation of radia-
tion, not taken inko account by expression (7j, in order to explain the
"excess" optical thickness -LeX. This mechanism can be related both to
~ the scatterin~ of radiation by large ice particles [24] and to the ab-
sorption of radiation by the'finely disperse aerosol fraction [48].
Source [26] gives the results of ineasurements of the attenuation of solar
radiation at 8,-13~.1m under conditi.ons of low humidity and low temperature
in Antarctica. The measur~~ments were accompanied by constant observations
of the spectral transparency of the entire thickness of the atmosphere at
a wavelength of 0.63 � m. The value of the vertical optical thickness for
0.63� m under the measurement conditions was 'G 0.63 - 0.048-0.100
(mean value 0.064). In comparison with Rayleigh scattering (~G gay = 0.054
and 0.059, according to [21] and [28] respectively), this value is only 10-
20% greater, which makes it possible. to consider the measure~ent condi-
tions as corresponding to a virtually "aerosol-free" atmosphere. A compar-
ison of the results of ineasurements in Antarctica with computations made
using (7) is given in Fig. 5, from which it follows that for the micro-
window in the interval 10.4-12.7 �.m the computed 'Gcomp and measured '~ex -
values of the optical thickr~esses within the limits of ineasurement errors
agree. The standard deviation from the straight line, corresponding to
- ~ ex - ti comp for the entire mass of data in this part of the spectrum,is
0.007. However, Fig. 5 shows ehat for the microwindows in the interval 8-
10~,un 'GeX >'Gcomp� Since in these measurements there is little aerosol
attenuation, the additional absorption is evidently attributable to sel-
ective molecular absorption of small components in the atmospherE. _
Source [87] gives the results of a compa~ison of data on measurements of
transmission of radiation by the water vapor continuum along a horizontal
path L= 20 km over the open water surface and computations on an electron-
ic computer using the LOWTRAN program [88j. This program for computations
in the region 8-13~,tm is based on data from laboratory experiments [62]
and (77J, but without taking into account the temperature dependence. The
authors of [87] arrived at the following conclusions: 1) in the region 8
�.m the computed data are 25% below the experimental data, 2) it is neces-
sary to introduce a temperature dependence into the computation program;
- 3) there is uncertainty with respect to the value of the coefficient in
the term containing the dependence on total pressure. Thus, the LOWTRAN
program used for transmission computations in the window 8-13 ~m needs
correction.
In [47] data from f ield measurements of. transmission of solar radiation
were compared with computations using (7) and (5), taking into account
the corrections proposed in [87j. The results are presented in Fig. 6
[47]. Since aerosol introduces additional attenuation in this attenua-
tion of radiation, it must be expected that the points in Fig. 6 must be
near or above the straight line ~G ex com Proceeding on this basis,
and taking into account that the points deno~ed by a cross were obtained
138
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
- in what ia known to be a closed atmosphere, in Fig. 6 falling below the
_ straight line '~ex ~ 2comp~ the authors of [47] feel that their fieid
data are in better agreement with computations using (5) than using (7). -
Thus, a comparison of data from field meaaurements with computations using
the approximation formulas, obtained in laboratory experiments, demonstrat-
ed that these formulas describe well the field data in the spectral region
10-13 �m at both positive and negative temperatures on the Celsius scale.
During the warm season of the year in the pure atmosphere these formulas
completely describe the attenuation of radiation at 10-13 �m by the atmo- ,
sphere. In winter and in a turbid atmosphere the aerosol attenuation must
also be taken into account.
**~r** -
139
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY '
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
_ ~
.
1,0
~ = exp � ,
~ p a comp
c
u �
v ~ .
t,/i~ � � x ~
0~6 o t �
- � o o s .
~ O q
X
O S
0 � 6 '
o ~
0 0 ~o .
~ x a~ � ~
0 0 DO 0 d 9
o x $o o ~o
y 8 g 2 X� ~ if "
~O
0 OX0 0
z
o �
0 0,2 a6 Y~
i ~ �
apx '
O
~ ~ 7 O p ,
O 4! p' ,~�~'7n~~'b'~"~ 1'3_ ~"i~ 3' .
- arx~ ~
o ai o,e ' ~,o rr .
Fig. 4. Comparison of results of field measurements with computations using
(7). 1) microwindow of transparency with center at 10.4 � m; 2) 11.08 ~m;
3) 11.6�.m; 4) ].1.8�m; 5) 12.2�m; 6) 12.4~m; 7) 12.S�m; 8) 12.8~um; 9)
12.9�,m; 10) 13.OFlm; 11) 13.1~ m.
~
Role of aerosol in attenuation of radiation it-13 � m. The conclusions
on the role of aerosol drawn in the preceding section on the basis of a
comparison of field and laboratory measurements find confirmation in a
- cycle of special inv~stigations of the contributton of an aqueous aerosol
to the attenuation of radiation at 8-13 � m[36, 53]. In these investiga-
tions it was found that with a meteorological range of visibility Sm < 20
km aerosol attenuation can be extremely significant (Tabl~ 5), With S~ >
20 km the coefficients of aerosol attenuation in the region 8-13 � m do
not exceed 0.02 km-1 [36]. Computations of the vol.umetric scattering
coefficients ~sC a~ta volumetric absorption coefficients 7~abs using the
distribution functions for the sizes of aerosol particles measured using
the "Kvant" aerosol spectrometer [54] indicated th~t in the considered `
range of wavelengths ~ abs ~ 7~sc is almost alwaya observed.
In a series of studies [20, 30, 37-40, 55-57], in contrast to all those
considered above, the point of view is successively defended that aero-
sol attenuation plays a decisive role in forming the continuum 8-13~,t,m.
140
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
s~ 3 a exp
4~~ p = comp
. 00 ` -
) 0 0. o � 0
� ~~o o O ~po ~ .
o ' c f
� ~ g0 ~vo~ 0 3
~ o
' p ~o �0 x ~
a~s � + ~ ~ ~ � ~
~ ~ ~o o � ~ ~
o. ~z o~~,`~ o a
a8� o ' .
ao ~ ~ o ~o
o a ~8 ~ ~
. o
0
o ~
_ ~
o qos , r~
- Fig. 5. Comparison of results of field measurements in Antarctica with com-
putations using (7). 1) microwindow of transparency with center at 8.12 � m; ~
2) 8. 33 �.m; 3) 8.63 ~.m; 4) 8. 74 �m; 5) 9.06� m; 6) 9. 34}~m; 7) 10.15 ~ m; 8) _
- 10.40Y.m; 9) 11.08�m; 10) 11.60�m; 11) 12.20�m; 12) 12.80~t,m.
- . . -
t~
Q) b) - _
Q~? x x x Y
_ � �
~ t exp
.
� p a comp
, ~ ,c
�
� �
a . ~ . ~ .
N � i � �
� �
. � ~ � �Y � 7
~ � ~ ~ t Z
~ � ~ �
�
1 ~
0 g7 0 Q1 D,2
Fig. 6. Comparison of results of field measurements [47] with computations.
a) according to (5); b) using (7). 1 and 2) experimental data [47] in pure
and turbid atmospheres re~pectively. ,
The first part of the series [37, 38, 55, 57] gave the results of ineasure- `
ments of the transmission of atmospheric IR radiation in the window 8-13~,tm
141 -
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
on horizontal and slant paths. The processing of experimental data was
carried out in accordance with expression (1). The authors assume that
aerosol is responsible for all points greater than the so-called minimum
points (minimum within the limits of the scatter of points of the optical -
thickness value t with differentc~ values, mandatorily including small
~1 values), caused by actual experimental errors.
Table 5
Coefficients of Aerosol Attenuation (km'1) with Three Values Sm ~20 km [36]
~ 1~ Mxar m
Sm -
~ 0,55 I 10,0 I 1�1,0 I 12,0 I 13.0
10 0,39 0~014 ~ 0,029 0,043 0,0?4
5 0,78 0,027 0,058 0,086 '0,1'48.
1 3,9 0,140 ' 0,290 0,430 0~740
The minimum ~min~ including not only the absorption of radiation by water
vapor, but a small addition, attenuation due to dry aerosol, corresponds
to the maximum value of the second term in expression (1). Qualitatively
~ min agree with laboratory data [60, 62, 77] without taking into account
the dependence on temperature, but a nonlinear dependence of 'G min on water
vapor content is not reliably detected [38, 55]. The temperature dependence �
ti min does not exceed the limits of ineasurement errors [55], and under nat-
ural conditions it is impossible to use the temperature dependence obtain-
ed in laboratory experiments [57].
3~ _ - _o .
~ eXP o
. ' 40 '
- o ~o
+ +
. Q1
i , 4~-
~
40 60 B r iL
Fig. 7. Dependence of 'G (i1 = 10.2 �m) on relative humidity in case of a
constant water vapor content. '
In [55] the conclusion that there is a dependence on temperature was drawn
in an analysis of a mass of experimental data obtained with a change in
e from 9 to 22�C, which on the basis of laboratory experiments should lead
to a change in 'G by approximately 25%. Absolute humidity was 11-13 mb, which
with allowance for the nonlinear dependence should lead to a change in 'G by
this same value (25-30%). It is therefore clear that with such a choice of
the mass of experimental data it is impossible to detect any temperature
142
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
dependence. This same study [55] gives the dependence of ~min ~n relative
humidity r(Fig. 7) with a constant water vapor content and the conclusion
is drawn that there is a weak dependence of 'G on r. However, if it is tak-
en into account that with const an increase in r is related to a de-
crease in e, Fig. 7 can be interpreted as an increase in ~G with a de-
crease in temperature.
-
s~! �?r" ~ .
r �
~ = exp a de 8 ~
~ p a comp o g o a, a /
-g , /
o goo /
/
~ � ~ � 8 / o 0
a o oag ~P 8 0 o x a
e . e y ~ o / ~
' 8 � / /1
_ 1 ~ 1 O / /
o O 1~ i O 1 ~ _ '
~
Rit ~
x u ~
/ j 31 i ~
~x 1 11 Y ~
~ � i i y/
Qa/ lX p ~ ~~1 I
.
~ O ~L
x y/' ' .
0 ~ ~c
Y Y =
~g~ Y
~ a~ . . Q1! Z~/LHM'
Fig. 8. Comparison of field measurements on horizontal path [55] with com-
putations using (7) . 1) Sm > 20 km, 2) Sm~ 20 km; broken straight lines
limit of ineasurement errors. ' -
Accordingly, the concept of minimum points, as a single-parameter depend-
ence, is clearly inadequate for an analysis of field measurements. This
is also shown in [46]. In [25] many data [37, 38, 57] for slant paths and
conditions in the pure atmosphere could be interpreted using expression
(7) without taking aerosol into account (see Fig. 4). Moreover, it can
seen from Fig. 8, where the author of [55] compares the results of his
measurements oh a horizontal path with computations using (7), that with
S~ ~ 20 km in most cases it is possible to get by without taking aerosol
- into account.
In the second part of the series [20, 39, 40, 48, 56] a statistical anal-
ysis of experimental data was made for spectral transparency of the atmo-
sphere on horizontal and slant paths obtained in the first part of the
series. If it is taken into account that in the forming of a set of ex-
perimental data for statistical analysis there was no exclusion of the
contribution of water vapor and also that there is possibly of some dual
interpretation of some results of the analysis (a series of results,
143
FOR OFFIGIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/48: CIA-RDP82-44850R000200074417-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
together with an "aerosol" interpretation, allows a"water vapor" inter-
pretation) , the idea of a role of absorption of radiation at 8-13 ~~{n
the submicron fraction of some types of aerosol merits attention. The good _
promise of thia idea is also strengthened by the fact that in the spectrum
of some types of aerosol there is a strong absorption band in the region
8-13~m [34].
Tto.6 � _ . . .
P~ o .
~
~
~ .
~ ~ a
\
~
~ �
- ~ ~
0,8 ~
�
�
� ~ .
eti~
~
1 ~
. o ~
? `
0,6 � 1 ~
0 2 � �
' 3 ~
~ . " ~ .
,
. ~ ~ ~
~ ? M
� ?
?
. ~o
0,y
a g/m3
0 S. 90 9S Q2/MJ
Fig. 9. Comparison of data From laboratory experiments [9] and computations
using (12). 1) pure water vapor, 2) mixture of water vapor and nitrogen, 3)
computations using (7), 4) using (12).
Thusy under conditions of a turbid atmosphere and in some cases under con-
ditions of a pure atmosphere, in winter, for example, allowance for aerosol _
is necessary. In order to clarify the mechanism, the role of different types
of aerosol ana creation of engineering methods for taking aerosol attenua-
tion into account it is necessary to carry out comprehensive investigations
which must include measurements of spectral transparency and the properties
(chemical composition, distribution functions, etc.) of aerosol.
- 144
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Theoretical investigations of the continuum. Attempts to describe contin-
uous absorption in the region 8-13 N.m have been made repeatedly. However,
comparisons of theoretical computations in which d~fferent forms of con-
_ toura of spectral lines (complete and simple dispersion, Van Vleck-Weiss-
- kopf, Zhevakin-Naumov, ~and others) with experiments were unsatisfactory
(for example, aee [4, 27, 30, 37, 59, 65]).
In theoretical invest~gations [32, 33, 43-45, 49-51] a fundamentally new
approach was used for the description of absorption in the windows of
relative transparency. A quantum mechanical scheme for computations in-
cludes interaction of pairs of near-colliding identical absorbing mole-
cules and as a result leads to a nonlinear dependence of absorption on
the concentration of absorbent. The absorption coefficient was obtained
in the form of the sum of two terms:
K�~sc~P,+x:Ps~ (1
where P1 and P2 are the partial pressure of the broadening gas and the ab-
sorbent; ~1 and ~2 are absorption coefficients related to broadening and
self-broadening.
The authors obtained a good agreement between computations using (12) for
different absorbents and in diffprent parts of the spectrum with experi-
, mental data. In Fig. 9, from [44, 45] we give a comparison of the experi-
ments [9] at a wavllength 10.6 � m with co~putations using (12) with
0.034 g'1�cm2�atID and )G2 = 8.75 g'1'cm �atm 1. As indicated in Fig~9,
there is a good agreement between experimental and computed results, al-
though it must be noted that in the computations, as noted by the authors
of [45] themselves, no allowance is made for the influence of the 6.3 �m
vibrational-rotational water vapor absorption band, and in addition, the
computations were ~ade with e= 300 K, whereas the experiments in [9] were
made with e= 293 K. Agreement of computations using (12) with experiments
- is also noted in [30]. [In the caption to the figure in [44] and [45] there
was a misprint in the notation of the solid and dashed curves which has
been corrected in Fig. 9.]
Taking into account that in solut3on of the Schrddinger equation use is made -
of the unperturbed wave functions of colliding molecules, the authors relate
the considered spectrum to the far wing of the purely rotational absorption
band of a monomer water vapor molecule [45]. However, first, allowance for
weak perturbations of the wave functions scarcely le~ds to radical qualita-
tive changes in the results, and second, this spectrum is formed due to
close collisions of twa absorbing molecules, which at the time of inter-
action with radiation can be regarded as a weakly bound short-lived dimer
[10]. At the present time it is difficult to assign the considered absorp-
tion to a specific energy transition du:. to the imperfection of theoretical
analysis of the water vapor dimer, although in [18] absorption in the re-
gion 8-13 � m is hypothetically related to translational-vibrational, where-
as in [93] it is related to the v ibrational (H20)2 transition.
145 -
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
BIBLIOGRAPHY
_ 1. Aganbekyan, K. A., Krayevskiy, V. I., Terekhov, V. S., "Investigation
of th~ Ahsorption of Laser Radiation at 10.6 N m in Atmospheric
Water Vapor and Carbon Dioxide," XI VSESOYUZNAYA KONFERENTSIYA PO -
RASPROSTRANENIYTJ RADIOVOLN. TEZISY DOKLA'~OV (Eleventh All-Union Con-
ference on Radio Wave Propagation. Summaries of Reports), Part II,
Kazan', 197~.
2. Adiks, T. G., Aref'yev, V. N., Dianov-Klokov, V. I., "Influence of
Molecular Absorption on the Propagation of Radiation of C02 La.sers
in the Earth's Atmc+sphere (Review)," KVANTOVAYA ELEKT'~ONIKA (Quantum
Electronics), Vol 2, No 5, 1975.
3. Adiks, T. G., Dianov-Klokov, V. I., Ivanov, V. M., Semenov, A. I.,
"Continuous Attenuation in the Transparency Window 8-13 � m Under
Condittons of High Atmospheric Transparency," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA
ATMOSFERY I OKEANA (News of the USSR Academy of Sciences, Physics of
_ the Atmosphere and Ocean), Vol 11, Pdo 7, 1975.
4. Andreyev, S. D., Gal'tsev, A. P., "Absorption of IR Radiation �y Water
Vapor in the Atmospheric Transparency Windows," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA
ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol 6, No 10, 1970.
5. Aref'yev, V. N., Dianov-Klokov, V. I., Radionov, V. F., Sizov, N. I.,
_ "Laboratory Measurements of Attenuation of Radiation of a C02 Laser -
by Pure Water Vapor," OPTIKA I SPEKTROSKOPIYA (Optics and Spectro-
scopy), Vol 39, No 5, 1975. _
6. Aref'yev, V. N., Dianov--Klokov, V. I., Radionov, V. F., Sizov, N. I.,
"Model Investigations of the Attenuation of a C02 Laser by Pure Water
Vapor at Temperatures of 20 and 50�C," TRUDY IEM (Transactions of the
Institute of Experimental Meteoralogy), No 11(54), 1975.
7. Aref'yev, V. N., Dianov-Klokov, V. I., Sizov, N. I., "Mechanism of Ab- -
sorption of Radiation in the Water Vapor Continuum at 1000 cm 1,"
TRUDY IEM, No 4(61), 1976.
8. Aref'yev, V. N., Dianov-Klokov, V. I., "Evaluation of the Influence of
Meteorological Factors on the Attenua.tion of Laser Radiation at 10.6 !
� m by the Water Vapor Continuum in the 'Pure' Atmosphere," KVANTOVAYA
ELEKTRONIKA, Vol 3, No 4, 1976.
9. Aref'yev, V. N., Dianov-Klokov, V. l., "Comparison of Data from Model
and Field Measurements of the Absorption of Ra.diation in the Atmospher-
ic Transparency Window 8-13 � m," TRUDY IEM, No 4(61), 1976.
10. Aref'yev, V. N., Dianov-Klokov, V. I., Attenuation of Radiation at
- 10.6 � m by Water Vapor and the Role of (H20)2 Dimers," OPTIKA I SPEK-
TROSKOPIYA, Vol 42., No 5, 1977.
146
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-00850R040240070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
11. Aref'yev, V. N., Dianov-Klokov, V. I., Sizov, N. I., "Investigation
of Attenuation of Radiation of a C02 Laser by the Atmosphere," TRUDY ,
IEM, No 7(75), 1477.
12. Aref'yev, V. ~t., Dianov-K1ok4v, V. I., Sizov, N. I., "'Laboratory In-
_ vestigations of the Role of Aerosol in the Attenuation of Radiation
at 10.6� m by Water Vapor," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA,
_ Vol 14, No 12, 1978.
13. Aref'yev, V. N., Sizov, N. I., "Laboratory Investigations of Attenu-
ation of Radiation in the Atmospheric Transparency Window 8-13 �m,"
TRUDY IEM, No 84, 1974.
14. Bogdanov, S. S., Brounshteyn, A. M., Kazakova, V., Par~.:-:-~nova, N.
N., Frolov, A. D., "Experimental Investigation of the Spectral Trans-
parency of the Atmosphere in the Region 8-12~,tm," TRUDY GGO (Trans- .
actions of tfie Main Geophysical Observatory), No 369, 1976.
15. Brounshteyn, A. M., "Spectral Transparency of the Atmosphere in the
IR Transparency Windows on Horizontal Surface Yatl-:o,~ ~iRUDY GGO, No
369, 1976.
16. Brounshteyn, A. ri., Paramonova, N. N., Frolov, A. D., "Systematic
_ Errors in Determining Spectral Transmission of the Entire Thickness -
of the Atmosphere and Coefficients of Continuous Attenuation in the
IR Spectral Region," TRUDY GGO, No 406, 1978.
17. Brounshteyn, A. M., Demidov, V. V., Sanin, I. L., "IR Atmospheric
Apparatus (IKAU-1) for Investigating Spectral Transparency," TRUDY
GGO, No 312, 1973.
18. Viktorova, A. A., Zhevakin, S. A., "Lines of the Rotational Spectrtan
of Water Vapor Dimers in the Upper Troposphere," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA
ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol 9, No 2, 1973. ,
19. Viktorova, A. A., Zhevakin, S. A., " Rotational Spectrum of a Water
Vapor Dim~r," IZV. WZOV, RADIOFIZIKA (News of Institutions of High-
_ er Education, Radiophysics), Vol 18, No 2, 1975.
20. Georgiyevskiy, Yu. S., Pirogov, S. I., Cfiavro, A. I., Shukurov, A. Kh.,
"Relationship Between the Statistical Characteristics of the Distri'~-
_ ution of Aerosol Particles by Sizes and Attenuation Coefficients,"
IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol 14, No 4, 1978.
_ 21. Gudi (Goody), R. M., ATT~IOSFERNAYA RADIATSIYA (Atmospheric Radiation), -
' Moscow, Mir, 1~66.
.22. Dianov-Klokov, V. I., Ivanov, V. i~I., "Mechanism of Absorption of
Laser Radiation at 10.6 ~n by Atmospheric Water Vapor," KVANT-
OVAYA ELEKTRONIKA, Vol 2, No 7, 1975.
147
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
,
~
I
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
23. Dianov-Klokov, V. I., Ivanov, V. M., Savitskiy, Yu. A., "Influence of
Associates of Water Molecules on the Attenuation of Radiation in the -
A~mospheric 'Transparency Window~ 8-12 �m," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMO- _
SFERY I OKEANA, Vol 11, No 12, 1975.
24. Dianov-Klokov, V. I., Ivanov, V. M., "Possible Role of Aerosol in the
Attenuation of Radiation at a= 10.6 ~m tiy a Slightly Turbid Atmo-
sphere," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol 14, No 3, 1978.
25. Dianov-Klokov, V. I., Ivanov, V. M., "Attenuation of Radiation at 8-
13 � m by Atmospheric Water Vapor," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I
OKEANA, Vol 14, No 8, 1978.
26. Dianov-Klokov, V. I., Ivanov, V. M., "Molecular Absorption in the At-
" mospheric Transparency 'Window' 8-13 � m Under Antarctic Conditions,"
IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol t5, No 6, 1979.
27. Zhevakin, S. A., Naumov, A. P., "Coefficients of Absorption of ~lec-
tromagnetic Waves by Water Vapor in the Range 10-2 cm," IZV. VUZOV, _
RADIOFIZIKA, Vol 6, No 4, 1963.
28. Zuyev, V. Ye., RASPROSTRANENIYE VIDIMYKH I INFRAKRASNYKH VOLN V ATMO-
SFERE (Propagation of Visible and Infrared Waves in the Atmosphere), ~
Moscow, Sovetskoye Radio, 1970.
29. Ivanov, V. M., Savitskiy, Yu. A., "Some Possibilities of Determining
' Temperature of the Underlying Surface from a Satellite in the Wind~w
8-12N1m," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZII:A ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol 12, No 4,
1976.
30. Kiyazev, N. A., Chavro, A. I., "Computation of Absorption of IR Radi-
_ ation by Water Vapor in the Continuum," TZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMO-
SFERY I OKEANA, Vol 14, No 9, 1978.
31. Kondrat'yev, K. Ya., KOSMICHESKAYA DISTANTSIONNAYA INDIKATSIYA TEM-
PERATURY PODSTILAYUSHCHEY POVERKHNOSTI (Space Remote Sensing of the
Underlying Surface), Obninsk, VNIIGMI-MTsD, 1978.
~2. Lizengevich, A. I., Fomin, V. V., "Peculiarities of Formation of the
Contour of Wings of Spectral Lines With Self-Broadening," OPTIKA I
SPEKTROSKOPIYA, Vol 34, No 3, 1973.
33. Lizengevich, A. I., Nesmelova, I~. I., Tv~rogov, S. D., Fomin, V, V.,
"Emission and Absorption of IR Radiation in the Absorption Band
Wings of Atmospheric Gases," RASPROSTRANENIYE OPTICHESKIKH VOLN V
_ ATTiOSFERE (Propagation of Optical Waves in the Atmosphere), Novo-
sibirsk, "Nauka," I975. '
34. Lyubovtseva, Yu. S., Shukurova, L. Mo, "IR Abscrption Spectra of At-
mospheric Aerosol," DOKLADY AN SSSR (Reports of the USSR Academy of
Sciences), Vol 237, No 5, 1977.
148
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY '
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
- 35. Makarov, A. S., Filippov, V. L., "Some Materials from Investigation
of the Coefficients of Attenuation of Radiation = 8-12 m) in the
Natural Atmosphere," IZV. WZOV, RADIOFIZIKA, Vol 21, No 1978.
36. Makarov, A. S., Filippov, V. L., Spiridonova, T. V., "Evaluation of
the Contribution of Aerosol to Attenuation of Ra.diation in the Atmo-
spheric Transparency 'Window' 8-13~1m," MATERIALY VSESOYUZNOGO
SOVESHCHANIYA PO RASPROSTRANENIYU OPTICHESKOGO IZLUCHENIYA V DIS-
PERSNOY SREDE (Materials of the All-Union Conference on Propagation
of Optica?. Radiation in a Disperse Medium), Moscow, Gidrometeoizdat,
_ 1978.
37. Malkevich, M. S., Georgiyevskiy, Yu. S., Rozenberg, G. V., Shukurov,
A. Kh., Chavro, A. I., "Atmo~pneric Transparency in the IR Spectral
Region," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA AT:40SFERY I OKEANA, Vol 9, No 12, 1973. ~
- 38. Malk~vich, M. S., Gorodetskiy, A. K., Orlov, A. P., Chavro, A. I.,
Shkurov, A. Kh., "Comprehensive Method for Investigating the Con-
tribution of Water Vapor to the Transmission of the Atmosphere in
the Transparency Windows 8-13~,1m," TRUDY GGO, No 369, 1976.
39. Malkevich, M. S., Georgiyevskiy, Yu. S., Chavro, A. I., Shkurov,
A. Kh., "Statistical Characteristics of the Spectral Structure of -
Radiation Attenuation in the Surface Air Layer," IZV. AN SSSR,
FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol '3, No 12, 1977. -
40. Malkevich, M. S., Georgiyevskiy, Yu. S., Chavro, A. I., Shukurov,
A. Kh., "Statistical Characteristics of the Spectral Structure of
Radiation Attenuation With Different Turbidity of the Surface Layer
of the Atmosphere," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol 14,
No 3, 1978.
41. Moskalenko, N. I., Zotov, 0. V., Dugin, V. P., "Absorption of Radia-
tion of a He-C02 Laser by the Gases C02, NH3 and Water Vapor,"
ZHURNAL PRIKLADNOY SPEKTROSKOPII (Journal of Applied Spectroscopy),
Vol 17, No 5, 1972.
_ 42. Moskalenko, N. I., "Coefficient of Continuous Absorption of Radiation
During Collisions of H20-NZ and H2O-H20 Molecules in the Spectral Re-
gion 8-13 � m," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEAhA, Vol 10, No 9,
1974.
43. Nesmelova, L. I., Tvorogov, S. D., Fomin, V. V., "Computation of the
Water Vapor Absorption Coefficients in the Region 8-13 �m," IZV. AN -
SSSR, FIZTKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol 9, No 11, 1973.
44. Nesmelova, L. I., ~orogov, S. D., "Absorption Coefficient in the
Wings of Spectral Lines," TRUDY IEM, No 7(75), 1977. _
149
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
45. Nesmelova, L. I., ~orogov, S. D., Fomin, V. V., SPEKTROSKOPIYA KRYL'-
YEV LINIY (Spectroscopy of Line Wings), Novosibirsk, Nauka, 1977.
46. Paramonova, N. N., Kazakova, K. V., Brounshteyn, A. M., "On the Prob-
_ lem of Radiation Absorption in the ',Jater Vapor Continuum in the Win-
dow 8-12 � m," TRUDY GGO, No 369, 1976.
47. Paramonova, N. N., Brounshteyn, A. M., "Continuous Attenuation of
Solar Radiation in the IR Transparency Windows in the Atmoaphere," ~
TRUDY GGO, No 419, 1978.
48. Rozenberg, G. V., Georgiyevskiy, Yu. S., Kapustin, V. N., Lyubovtseva,
Yu. S., Orlov, A. P., Pirogov, S. M., Chavro, A. I., Shukurov, A. Kh.,
"Submicron Fraction of Aerosol and Light Absorption in the Transpar-
ency Window 8-13~1m," TZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol
13, No 11, 1977. ,
49. Tvorogov, S. D., Fomin, B. V., "Theory of the Contour of Spectral
Lines in the Far Wings," OPTIKA I SPEKTROSKOPIYA, Vol 31, No 3, 1971.
50. T~orogov, S. D., Fomin, V. V., "Allowance for the Distribution of
Molecules by Velocities in the Problem of the Shape of Wings of
Spectral Lines," OPTIKA I SPEKTROSKOPIYA, Vol 31, No 6, 1971.
51. ~�orogov, S. D., Nesmelova, L. I., "Radiation Processes in the Wings
of Bands of Atmospheric Gases," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I
OKEANA, Vol 12, No 6, 1976.
52. Filippov, V. L., Makarov, A. S., "Spectral Transparency of the Sur-
face Atmosphere in the Frequency Range 400-770 cm-1," IZV. AN SSSR,
FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol 12, No 10, 1976.
53. Filippov, V. L., Makarov, A. S., "Attenuation of Radiation of Atmo-
spheric Aerosol in the Absorption Bands of Moistened Particles,"
IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol 14, No 5, 1978.
54. Filippov, V. L., et al., "Opti~al-Electronic Instrument for Disperse -
Analysis of Aerosol Media," OPTIKO-MEKHANICHESKAYA PROMYSHLENNOST'
(Optical-Mechanical Industry), No 4, 1976.
55. Chavro, A. I., "Dependence of Transparency in the Atmospheric Surface
Layer in the Window of the IR Spectral Region on Humidity and Temper-
ature," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol 11, No 12, 1975.
56. Chavro, A. I., Georgiyevskiy, Yu. S., Malkevich, M. S., Shukurov, A.
Kh., "Correlation Between the Statistical Characteristics of the
~ Spectral Structure of Attenuation of Radiation and Meteorological
Parameters in the Atmospheric Surface Layer," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA
ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, 14, No 2, 1978.
150
~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
57. Shukurov, A. Kh., Malkevich, M. S., Chavro, A. I., "Experimental In-�
vestigation of the Law of Spectral Transmission of Radiation by a
Vertical Column of the Atmosphere in Windows of the 2-13� m Inter-
val," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol 12, No 3, 1976.
58. Yurganov, L. N., Dianov-Klokov, V. I., "Dependence of the Diffusive ~
Attenuation in the Transparency Window 8-13~,~m on Humidity," IZV. AN
SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol 8, No 3, 1972.
59. Bignell, K., Saidy, F., Sheppard, P. A., "On the Atmospheric Infrared
Contina+lm," JOSA, Vol 53, No 4, 1963.
60. Bignell, K., "The Water Vapor Infrared Continuum," QUART. J. ROY.
METEOROL. SOC., Vol 96, No 409, 1970.
61. Braun, Ch., Leidecker, A,, "Rotation and Vibration Spectra for the
H20 Dimer: Theory and Comparison With Experimental Data," J. CHEM.
PHYS., Vol 61, No 8, 1974.
62. Burch, D. E., "Investigation of the Absorption in Infrared Radiation
by Atmospheric Gases," SEMI-ANNUAL TECHNICAL REPORT U-4784 UNDER CON-
TRACT NF19628-69-c-0263, 1970.
63. Burch, D. E., Gryvnak, D. A., Gates, F. J., "Continuum Absorption
by H20 Between 330 and 825 cm 1," FINAL REPORT FOR PERIOD 16 OCTOBER
1973-30 SEPTEMBER 1974. Aeroneutronic Division, Philco Ford Corpora-
tion, AFCRL-TR-74-0377, September 1974.
64. Burroughs, W. J., Jones, R. C., Gebbie, A. A., "A Study of Submilli-
metre Atmospheric Absorption Using the HCN Maser," J. QUANT. SPECTR.
RAD. TRANSF., Vol 9, No 6, 1969.
65. Coffey, M. T., "Water Vapor Absorption in the 10-12~t.m Atmospheric
Window," QUART. J. ROY. METEOROL. SOC., Vol 103, No 438, 1977.
66. Eisenberg, D., Kauzmann, W., THE STRUCTURE AND PROPERTIES OF WATER,
Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1969.
67. Elsasser, W. M., "Note on the Atmospheric Absorption Caused by Rota--
tional Water Bands," PHYS. REV., Vol 53, No 9, 1938.
68. Franks, Felix, A COMPREHENSIVE TREATYSE. THE PHYSICS AND PHYSICAL
- CHEMISTRY OF WATER, Plenum, Vol 1, New York, 1972.
69. Grassl, H., "A New Type o~ Absorption in the Atmospheric IR Window
Due to Water Vapor Polymers," CONTRIBUTIONS TO ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS,
Vol 49, No 4, 1976.
151
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
a-
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
70. Grassl, H., "Influence of Different Absorbers in the Window Region
on Radiative Cooling (and on Surface Temperature Determination)," _
BEITR. PHYS., Vol 47, No 1, 1974. '
71. Grassl, H., "Separation of Atmospheric Absorbers in the 8-13 Micro-
meter Region," FsEITR. PHYS. f~TMOS., Vol 46, No 2, 1973.
72. Houghton, I. T., Lee, A. C. L., "Atmospheric Transmission in the 10~
12 ~ m Window," NATURE PHYS. SCI., Vol 238, No 86, 1972.
73. Kelley, P. L., McClatchey, R. A., Long, R. K., Snelson, E., -
"Molecular Absorption of Infrared Laser Radiation in the Natural -
Atmosphere," OPT. AND QUANTUM ELECTRONICS, Vol 8, No 2, 1976.
74. La Rocca, A. I., "Methods of Calculating Atmospheric Transmittance
and Radiance in the Infrared," PROCEED. IEEE, Vol 63, No l, 1976.
75. Lee, A. C. L., "A Study of the Continuum Absorption Within the 8-13
wm Atmospheric Window," QUART. J. ROY. METEOROL. SOC., Vol 99, No
_ 422, 1973.
76. McClatchey, R. A., Fenn, R. W., Selby, J. E. A., Volz, F. E., Caring,
I. S., "Optical Properties of the Atmosphere (Revised)," ENVIRON-
MENTAL RESEARCH PAPERS, AFCRL, No 354, 1971.
77. McCoy, I. H., Rensch, D. B., Long, R. K., "Water Vapor Continuum Ab-
sorption of Carbon Dioxide Laser Radiation Near 10 APPL. OPT.,
Vol 8, No 7, 1969.
78. Montgomery, G. P., "Temperature Dependence of Infrared Absorption
by the Water Vapor Cont9.nuum Near 1200 c~ 1," APPL. OPT., Vol 17,
No 15, 1978.
79. Nordstrom, R. J., Thomas, M. E., Peterson, J. S., Damon, E. K., Long, _
R. K., "Effects of Oxygen Addition on Pressure-Broadened Water Vapor
Absorption," APPL. OPT., Vol 17, No 17, 1978.
80. Penner, S. S., Varanasi, P., "Spectral Absorption Coefficients in
the Pure Rotational Spectrum of Water Vapor," J. QUANT. SPECTR.
' RADIAT. TRANSFER, Vol 7, No 4, 1967.
81. Peterson, J. C., Thomas, M. E., Nordstrom, R. J., Damon, E. K., Long,
R. K., "Water Vapor-Nitrogen Absorption at C02 Laser Frequencies,"
APPL. OPTICS, Vol 18, No 6, 1979.
82. Platt, C. M. R., "Airborne Infrared Measurements (1Q to 12 Micron
Wavelengths) of Tropical East-Coast Australia," JGR, Vol 77, No 9,
1972.
152
FOR OFFZCIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY .
83. Platt, C. M. R., Gambling, D. J., "Emissivity of High Layer Clouds
by Combined Lidar and Radiometric Techniques," QUART. J. ROY.
- METEOROL. SOC., Vol 97, No 413, 1971.
84. Platt, C. M. R., "Surface Temperature Measurements from Satellites,"
- NATURE PIi~ifS. SCI., Vol 235, No 54, 1972.
85. Platt, C. M. R., Troup, A. J., "A Direct Comparison of Satellite
- and Aircraft Infrared (10 �m - 12 �.m) Remote Measurements of Sur-
face Temperature," REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT, Vol 2, No 4, 1973.
86. Platt, C. M. R., "Lidar and Radiometric Observations of 11 Cirrus
Clouds," J. ATMOS. SCI., Vol 30, No 6, 1973.
87. Roberts, E. R., Selby, J. E. A., Biberman, L. M., "Infrared Continu-
um Absorption by Atmospheric Water Vapor in the 10-12 ~ m Window,"
APPL. OPTICS, Vol 15, No 9, 1976.
88. Selby, J. E. A., Shettle, E. P., McClatchey, R. A., "Atmospheric
Transmittance from 0.25 to 28.5 � m: Supplement LOWTRAN 3B (1976). _
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH PAPER, No 587, AFGL-TR-76-02.58.
89. Shumate, M. S., et al., "Water Vapor Absorption of Carbon Dioxide
Laser Radiatian," APPL. OPTICS, Vol 15, No lU, 1976.
90. Tomasi, C., Guzzi, R., Vittori, 0., "A Search for the e-Effect in
the Atmospheric Water Vapor Continuum," J. ATMOS. SCI., Vol 31,
No 1, 1974.
91. Trusty, G. L., Koozekanani, S. H., Long, R. K., "Water Vapor Ab-
sorption Measurement Near 10.4 N,m Using a C02 Laser and a Spectro-
phone," JOSA, Vol 63, N~ 4, 1973.
92. Varanasi, P., Chou, S., Penner, S. S., "Absorption Coeff icients for
Water Vapor in the 600-1000 cm'1 Region," J. QUANT. SPECTR. RADIAT. -
TRANSFER, Vol 8, No 8, 1968.
93. Wolynes, P. E., Roberts, R. E., "Molecular Interpretation of the
Infrared Water Vapor Continuum," APPL. OPTICS, Vol 17, No 10, 1978.
153
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
UDC 551.(482+579):556..~36:627.152
FORMULATION OF THE PRINi.IPLES OF HYl'~ROLOGY AND THE DYNAMICS OF CHANNEL
FLOWS IN THE PUBLICATIONS OF M. A. VELIKA;IOV
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 80 pp 113-117
[Article by Candidate of Technical Sciences M. M. Arkhangel'skiy, Professor
D. I. Grinval'd, Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences N. A.
Mikhaylova and N. S. Sharashkina, Moscow State University and Odessa Hy-
drometeorological Institute, submitted for publication 6 July 1979J
Abstract: This paper gives a review of the pub-
lications of Corresponding Member USSR Academy
- of Sciences M. A. Velikanov, who created the
theoretical basis of the method for computing
runoff and who developed practical methods
for predicting snow-produced and rain-induced . _
high water. He made a substantial contribution
to the probabilistic theory of movement of bot-
tom sediments and for the first time directed
attention to the necessity for making allowancs _
for the energy expended by the flow on the trans-
port of suspended sediments. M. A. Velikanov for-
mul.ated the fundamental principles for study of
the channel process, which served as a basis for
the modeling of this process in erodable models.
[Text] The content of hydrology of the land as the science of water bodies
was determined in the publications of Soviet hydrologists in 1920-1925.
Among the founders of hydrology one of the leading places is occupied by
M. A. Velikanov. At the present time it is difficult to visualize the sci-
ence of the earth's hydrosphere without a number of its important aspects
whose scientific principles were laid in the publications of M. A. Veli-
kanov. He published about 200 studies. -
M. A. Velikanov was born on 22 January 1879 in Kazan'. In 1903 he graduat-
ed from the Peterburg Institute of Transportation Engineers, after which
~ he worked as an engineer on the waterways of Siberia. In 1925 M. A. Vel-
ikanov was selected as senior hydrologist of the State Ilydrolog:.cal �
154
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Institute, established by a decree of V. I. Lenin. In 1930 he was called
to the Department of Hydrology of the Land at the Moscow Hydrometeorolog-
ical Institute. In 1935 he headed the planning and outfitting of the Lab-
oratory of Physical Hydrodynami~s of the Power Institute USSR Academy of
Sciences and then headed the inv~stigations of this laboratory. Later the
laboratory was renamed the Laboratory of Channel Processes and was trans-
ferred to the Institute of Geography USSR Academy of Sciences. In 1939
M. A. Velikanov was elected Corresponding Member USSR Academy of Sciences. -
In 1945 he was invited to head the newly organized Department of the Phys-
ics of Channel Flows of the Physics Faculty Moscow State University. M. A.
Velikanov died on 30 April 1964.
M. A. Velikanov made a fundamental contribution to the theory of surface -
E'
runoff, the water balance of river basins, the movement of sediments and
channel processes. His book GIDROLOGIYA SUSHI (Hydrology of the Land) was
published in 1925. This was the first generalizing work in this field of
science. The book systematically discussed a broad range of hydrological
problems, gave an original interpretation of a number of important prob-
lems and contained principles constituting a scientific basis for the de-
velopment of a number of directions in hydrology of the land. This book
was then reissued in four editions. -
M. A. Velikanov gave great importance to different ways to solve hydrolog-
ical problems. At the same time, adhering to his scientific points of
view, he emphasized the physical aspects of hydrology. He defined hydrol-
ogy as the science of the distribution and activity of water flows and
water bodies on the surface of the earth's land. M. A. Velikanov pointed
out that in hydrology many "sucn areas, whose thorough study mandatorily -
requires the use of physical experimentation and the use of a well-devel-
oped physicomathematical approach" had appeared.
M. A. Velikanov gave primary importance to problems relating to the water
balance and runoff in his investigations. His studies created the theoret-
ical basis for methods for computing river runoff. Emphasizing the need
for a physical approach to study of hydrological processes, he, however,
did not forget that these processes develop in a definite geographical en-
vironment. He regarded the study of the water balance "as the principal
and most important part of the entire hydrology of the land."
M. A. Velikanav devoted great attention to the principles of organization
of eaperimer~tal investigations at hydrological runoff stations. In es-
sence, he established the first of these near Moscow. This was the Kuchin-
skaya Hydrological Station, constituting the prototype for organizing in- -
vestigations of runoff at many stations in the USSR and abroad. M. A, Vel-
ikanov devoted a series of studies to the problem of experimental study
of runoff in small basins. The productiveness of the approach which he
defined was confirmed by all subsequent development of hydrology. These
studies also favored the creation of a global network of experimental and
representative basins with the active participation of Soviet hydrologists
155 -
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
within the framework of the International Hydrological Decade (1965-1974)
and International Hydrological Program (since 1975).
_ In connection with the problem of study of the runoff of small rivers the
' problem arose of refining the water balance equation and the possibilities
of its use for rivers of different size. M. A. Velikanov especially empha-
sized the role of water exchange with the surrounding basin. Relying on
the water balance method, he theoretically demonstrated the legitimacy
of the hydroclimatic approach to solution of problems in computing lon~-
term runoff and proposed practical ways for their solution in this ~:ay. In
collaboration with U. L. Sokolovskiy he carried out an investigation of
the dependence between runoff, precipitation and the dew-point spread
for a number of river basins in the USSR and obtained a corresponding for-
mula for practical computations of the mean long-term runoff of rivers. It
is also necessary to mention the quasiconstants method, developed by M. A.
Velikanov for the purpose of giving engineers a reliable meth'od for refin-
ing the computed values of the hydrological characteristics read from ap-
proximate maps in isolines.
Giving great importance to the development of the method for forecasting
and computing rain-induced high waters and snow-induced high waters, M. A.
Velikanov not only formulated the problem of studying these processes,
but also gave general dependences describing the mechani~m of formation
of high waters. He developed a theory of slope runoff. By examining the
surface of a slope watered by a shower with an intensity variable in time
and area, and writing a water balance equation for an elementary area, he
derived general differential equations for the runoff of water trom a slope.
Converting to a river basin and adopting one or another concept of runoff
losses in infiltration, M. A. Velikanov introdueed the concept of isochron-
al lines of the travel time of water to a river. Without limiting himself
to computations of slope runoff, he examined the movement of a high-water
wave in a channel. He developed a method for computations in the case of
_ suu~ing the high waters of inerging rivers. The results of all these in-
vestigati~ns constituted an important landmark on the path of development -
of the general theory of runoff and the development of practical methods
for computing and predicting snow-induced high water and rain-induced high
water. M. A. Velikanov for the first time gave a thorough analysis of the
processes of formation of snow- and rain-induced high waters~. The funda-
mental ideas of M. A. Velikanov in the field of study of the water balance
of basins and computations of river runoff were set forth by him in his
monograph VODNYY BALANS SUSHI (Water Balance of the Land), published in
1940.
M. A. Velikanov gave great importance to the use of the methods of mathe-
matical statistics in hydrology, especially in study of long-term fluctua-
tions of river runoff. Being not only a theoretician, but also an experi-
menter, he devoted a very great amount of attEntion as well to the rigor
of evaluations of the empirical material and the method for the processing
of observations. His great experience in this problem important for
156
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONL~Y
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/48: CIA-RDP82-44850R000200074417-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
research was set forth in the monograph OSHIBKI IZMERENIYA I II~IPIRICHESK-
IYE ZAVISIMOSTI. MATEMATICHESKAYA OBRABOTKA NABLYUDENIY (Measurement Err-
ors and Empirical Dependences. Mathematical Processing of Observations),
published in 1962.
Among the scientific studies of M. A. Velikanov the problems of movement
of sediments and channel processes unquestionably occupy an important
_ place. The eatensive complex of investigations of these problems, which
was carried out by him and his students, was the basis for discriminating
from the hydrology of the land an independent scientific discipline which
M. A. Velikanov named "dynamics of channel flows." At its basis is a de-
termination of the channel process as interaction between the flow and
channel. The first edition of the monograph DINAMIKA RUSLOVYKH POTOKOV
(Dynamics of Channel Flows) appeared in 1936 and the last in 1954-1955. _
The outstanding intuition of the natural scientist and his great work
experience on investigating and improvement of river channels enabled _
- M. A. Velikanov from the beginning of hi~ scientific activity to define
the problems through whose investigation lies the path to solution of
the final problem computation and prediction of the channel process.
These problems include the theory of channel turbulence, the theory of
movement of sediments and the theory of the channel process.
M. A. Velikanov was the first to evaluate the role of turbulence as a de-
termining factor in the complex of phenomena making up the channel pro-
cess. Beginning with his early studies, he points aut the need for in-
vestigation of turbulence in flows with a free surface and deformable
boundaries on the basis of a synthesis of a rigorous physical experiment
- with the tnathematical approach of theoretical hydrodynamics. A ma~or cycle
of studies carried out by M. A. Velikanov and under his direction was
devoted to an experimental study of channel turbulence. There is a sur-
pris3ng systematic approach in the advance toward solution of this com-
- plex problem, which is characteristic for all his ~cientific activity,
his capacity for defining ways to obtain the necessary experimental data,
and also his ability for gathering empirical data accumulated by practical
workers as a result of observations of sediments and channel deformations
in rivers for corresponding theoretical generalizations.
The experimental studies of M. A. Velikanov were distinguished by a clear
formulation of problems which must be solved by different experiments
and a rigorous evaluation of the correspondence between the experimental
apparatus and measurement method and the investigated problem. He demon-
strated experimentally that the instantaneous values of the velocity of
turbulent channel flow satisfy the law of normat distribution of random
values. He brought attention to the fact that the idea of an instantaneous
- value of velocity in the form of the sum of its mean value and the deviation
from this value arose as ~ result of the fact that turbulence was inter-
preted as a disruption of stability of laminar movement. A number of facts
indicated that such a representation of the velocity field of a channel
157
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
flow is incomplete. The dependence of the characteristics of velocity
fluctuations on coordinates and the constancy of the Strouhal number in
the entire flow section made it possible to postulate that in the flow
there are quasiperiodic disturbances occupying its entire depth. On the
- basis of the spectral theory of turbulence developed in the studies of
A. N. Kolmogorov, L. D. Landau, A. M. Obukhov and others it was estab-
lished that in the frequency spectrum of velocity fluctuations the
greatest part of the energy is concentrated in the low-frequency range.
In a channel flow these low-frequency fluctuations must be related to
the dimensions and form of its boundary surfaces. M. A. Velikanov had
every basis for assuming that specifically these large-scale eddies play
the principal role in the structure of the flow and in the mechanism of
its effect on a deformable channel.
M. A. Velikanov postulated that in the instantaneou~ velocity of channPl
flow it is possible to discriminate a term expressing the structural de-
viation of velocity from its mean value. Such a representation of the
velocity field afforded new possibilities for studying channel phenomena;
- then the center of gravity in the study was shifted from purely random
deviations of velocity and the diffusion processes caused by them to
the processes of formation of a channel and all its deformations, being
a sort of "replica" of the structural deviations, which, in turn, were
regularly related to channel macroformations. Thus, randomness of another
nature was introduced randomness in the deviation of the parameters
of structural disturbances from their mean values and randomness in the
phe~fomena associated with thP instability of large-scale forms. Struc- -
tural formations with linear scales of the order of the depth of flow
were discovered by the colleagues of M, A. Velikanov Ye. M. Minskiy and
B. A. Fidman. Then M. A. Velikanov, in collaboration with N. A. Mikhayl-
ova, demonstrated that turbidity fluctuations have a character close to
periodic. They were associated with large-scale disturbances of the
velocity field. The investigations of M. A. Vel3kanov and his associates
made it possible to assert that it is precisely large-scale structural
disturbances which are the mechanism determinfr.g the processes transpir-
ing in a channel, and specifically the link through which there is a feed-
back between the flow and channel.
- An entire cycle of studies by M. A. 4elikanov is related to the development
of a theory of movement of bottom and suspended sediments. His concepts
concerning the mechanism of movement in a flow of solid particles was re-
fined with the accumulation of experimental data. It should be noted that
already by the time of the Second All-Union Hydrological Congress (1928)
he had outlined the principles for solution of this problem. These were,
first of all, the probabilistic nature of the phenomenon, since the flow
transport of solid particles is associated with turbulence, and second,
the unity of the entire process of transport of solid particles by a tur-
bulent flow.
158
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
I
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
M. A. Velikanov and his associates in this field carrjed out a number of
experimental investigations for a thorough clarification of the details
of the mechanism of flow transport of solid particles: falling of heavy
particles in a viscous fluid, movement of sediments in the bottom region
of the flow, forming of sand waves, distribution of suspended sediments
in the depth of the flow, statietical relationship between fluctuations
of velocity and turbidity. M. A. Velikanov performed great services in the
development of the theory of movement of bottom sediments. His studies
mad~ it possible to proceed from purely empirical relationships, at the
_ basis of which there were only general hydraulic schemes, to the formula-
tion of a theory making use of modern attainments in the turbulence field.
M. A. Velikanov in his consideration of the phenomenon no longer limited
himself to average characteristics of the flow, but drew upon the stat-
istical characteristics of the field of vzlocity of turbulent flow. As a
result he developed a probabilistic theory of jumplike movement of bottom
sediments. This theory, in the sense of a probabilistic approach, is a
development of the Kh. A. Eynshteyn theory. The probabilistic approach
to consideration of the detachment of solid particles from the bottom
and their further movement in the flow layer is the mo~t promising from
the point of view of further development of the theory of movement not
onZy of bottom, but also suspended sediments. This approach already mer-
its attention because it makes it possible to obtain not the relative
value of the concentration of heavy particles (as this is done in differ-
ent theories of the movement of sediments), but its absolute value.
In his investigations M. A. Velikanov devoted much attention to sand
waves. He created a theory of the development of sand waves. The basis
of the theory is the hypothesis that the movement of sand particles on
the bottom arises under the influence of a pulsating flow velocity. Us-
~ ing the equation for the balance of solid matter for a plane, uniform,
steady flow, M. A. Velikanov derived an expression for the probability
of change in bottom readings with time, from which follows a periodic-
- ~ ity of increases and decreases in bottom readings, that is, transforma-
tion of a plane sandy bottom into a wavy bottom under the influence of
turbulent flow. He carried out a convincing and thorough analysis of
the diffusion theory of movement of sediments and proposed a variant ~
of this theory closest to the nature of the phenomenon. As a result af
_ careful experimental checking of the theory N. A. Velikanov demonstrat-
ed that in application to flows with a low concentration of solid particles -
of a sm~.ll hydraulic granularity the theory gives results estremely close
to reality.
An important achievement in the field of movement ef sediments was the
gravitational theory proposed by M. A. Velikanov; he developed this in a
series of studies. This theory, whose principles were published as early
as 1943, in 1946, 1951-1952 was subjected to a critica:L discussion on
the pages of" IZVESTIYA AN SSSR (News of the USSR Academy of Sciences). As
a result of the discussion a number of comments on the theory were taken
into account by the author. At the present time it can be represented
as a theoretical generalization and a final conclusion from numerous at-
tempts of different authors to give a computation formula for the solid
159
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
discharge of a river (discharge oi sediments). After analyzing the empir-
ical dependences, M. A. Velikanov concluded that in all the formulas
- there is a proportionality of the solid discharge to the fourth power
of velocity and of the mean discharge concentration of sediments to
the third power, which corresponds to the essence of the gravitational _
theory. Using the dimensionality method, the author draws two important
conclusions: that the mean concentration of sediments, both suspended
and bottom, is a function only of the roughness parameter and the criter-
ion of the transporting capacity of the flow, which are basic in the grav-
_ itational theory. The inverse proportianality between the concentration -
and the criterion of transporting capacity relates to both suspended
and bottom sediments. Thus, in the case of suspended and bottom sediments
one and the same work of weighting appears,evidently being the principal
factor in the channel process. Despite a number of inadequacies, the
gravitational theory is a fundamentally new stage in study of the move-
ment of sediments.
Probably with the deepening of our knowledge concerning the kinematics and
dynamics of suspension-carrying flows new and more perfect theories will
appear. But without question in one form or another they will retain an
allowance for the "work of weighting' the need for which was first pointed
out by M. A. Velikanov. He retains his priority also in developing kine- -
matir_ dependences of suspension-carrying flows, in creating the first
theory of the movement of suspended sediments taking into account the ef-
fect exerted on them by gravity and free from restriction on the smallness
of the hydraulic fraction and the smallness of the disturbances transport-
ing the solid particles.
An independent cycle of studies by M. A. Velikanov is represented by his
investigations of the channel process as a whole. In developing the chan-
- nel process science he generalized the qualitative observations and prac-
tical conclusic+ns drawn by r~search engineers of the last century V. Ni.
Lokhtin, N. S. Lelyavskiy, L. Farg and others.
In connection with the construction of ma~or hydroelectric power plants
on the Dnepr and Volga for the first time the prcblem arose of predicting
and regulating the erosional activity of water flows prediction of the
channel process. Due to the studies of M. A. Velikanov our knowledge of
the channel process was substantially broadened and deepened. He laid -
the basis for solution of the channel process problem as an integrated
- whole. An analysis and generalization of the enormous material from field
investigations and laboratory experiments enabled M. A. Velikanov to give
three principles which he considered to be guiding in study of the channel
process.
T~~e first principle is interaction between the flow and channel, express-
ing the dialectic unity of mutually operative elements: flow of fluid and ,
constantly deformable solid channel boundaries, consisting of individual
~discrete particles, periodically penetrating into the thickness of the '
160
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
flow, transported by the latter and then again returning to the bottcm.
The easence of this principle is that the channel constantly contr~ls
the flow and th~ flow controls the channel. M, A. Velikanov regarded
the channel and flow to be "one organically ,~oined complex in which the
channel reflects the form of the flow and the flow reflects the form uf
the channel." In connection with this postulate he formulated the prob-
lem of study of the specifics of turbulence, associated with elements
of channel form (shallows, rapids, etc.). The channel stability problem
is closel~ related to this principle. M. A. Velikanov proposed an inte- -
gral evaluation of channel stability using the modified Lokhtin stability
test. He proposed a classification of rivers by degree of channel stabil-
ity.
The second p�rinciple is a restriction on the number of natural complexes.
In natural channel flows, as a result of prolonged interaction between
_ the flow and channel, it was possible to def ine a special type of depen-
dence determining the most probable combinations of morphometric charac-
teristics of the channel and sediments (width, depth, curvature, size of
particles) and the hydrodxnamic parameters of the flow (slope, discharge).
With stipulated geological and aoil-botanical conditions there is a re- -
striction on the number of possibie types of channel flowa; this facil-
itates the forecast and regulation of the channel process. The considered
princ4.ple lies at the basis of writing of so-called morphometric depend-
ences. By developing the work of V. M. Lokhtin and using the dimensional-
ity method, M. A. Velikanov obtained morphometric dependences channel
- criteria. Such dependences were earlier derived empirically by S. I. Ryb-
kin.
_ The third principle is the minimum of energy dissipation (channel of least
resistance), The physical sense of this principle applicable to the dynam-
ics of channel flows is that in the formation of the river channel (pri-
- mary or disrupted by the effect of a structure) the totality of channel
deformations transpires in the direction of such a combination of channel
_ forms and currents with which the total resistance of the flow becomes min-
- imum. The reciprocal control of the flow and channel after a number of suc-
cessive deformations leads precisely to this: among the hydrodynamically -
possible and geologically re~lizable forms there is a form for which the
velocity :,tructure of the flow gives a minimum level of energy dissipation.
In the opinion of M. A. Velikanov, this principle must be especially pro-
ductive in solving some special engineering problems when the flow is sub-
jected to some external effect by the erection of some structure in the
flow which disrupts its usual form.
To be ;.ure, the formulation of the three enumer3ted principles is only the
beginning af development or even an indication of the direction in which -
_ channe.t process theory can develop. But even only the formulation of the
menti.orc~d postulates provided a key to the development of the principles
for rational effect on rivers for the purpose of improving navigational
conditions, in the construction of bridges, water intakes, etc.
161
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY -
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
M. A. Velikanov devoted much attention to the problem of laboratory model-
ing of. channel processes. The first models of microrivers in the USSR were
created by N. S. Sharashkina under his direct direction. The problems in-
volved in Che transforcndtion of river channels were studied in the labor-
- atory in models with natural ground at the end of the 1940's-early 1950's.
The experiments were initially carried out in small areas but later were
transferred to open models in the floodplain of the Moskva River. The
results made it possible to c.larity the pattern of development of ~ river,
ranging from primary furrows to complex branching channels witn a well-ex-
pressed valley. They demonstrated that the morphometric characteristics of
natural rivers the terraces, shallows, rapids, islands, ox-bow lakes
_ are qualitatively completely reproduced in the model.
The p~inciples formulated by M. A. Vel.ikanov serve as a basis for the mod-
el ing of channel processes in erodable models. Relying on the principle
- of limitation of natural complexes and the derived morphometric dependences,
which hypothetically were correct for both large and ~mall rivers, M. A.
- Velikanov succeeded in establishing and validating the scales which a
madel must satisfy so *_hat processes in it would transpire similar to nat-
ural ~rocesses. It is known that in the modeling of the channel nrocess
_ for hydraulic or. other purposes it is necessary to retain distortion of
the vertical scale in the model of turbulent flow. M. A. Velikanov for
the first time was able to give computations of such a distortion, which
made it possible to determine, with conversion from xiature to the model,
the criterion of transporting ca~acity, concentration of sediments and
duration of the channel process.
~
The broad front of work c4rried out in the Soviet Union on the regulation
and improvement of rivers, the creation of large-scale irrigation systems
and the developulent of projects for the redistribution ~f water resources
over an area, associated with the creation of canals which in their size `
and water-carrying capacity are commensurable with major rivers, require
- the development of increasing~y more ~igorous methods for predicting and
' computing channel phenomena, deformation of the canal channels and determin-
ation of the final stable result of transformation of artificial water-
courses. The theoretical principles for engineering solution of such\prob-
lems were laid in the studies of M. A. Velikanov.
The following questions lie within the framework of development of the
- ideas of M. A. Velikanov: investigation of the peculiarities of channel
turbulence, development of hypotheses of closing of the averaged equa- -
tions of hydrodynamics, taking into account the specifics of channel tur- -
bulence; investigation of secondary currents and their role in the devel-
opment of structural macroscale formations in the flow; development for -
this purpose of reliable devices for measuring velocity for a~tual flows;
seeking of the relationship between the characteristics of structural
disturbances and channel formations; development and refining of the
theory ~f individual kinds of movement of sediments and devPloping a uni-
fied theory, including all types of movement of sediments. Finally, the
162
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
formulation of a quantitative theory of channel processes: development of
a theory of nonstationary phenomena in a channel, the writing of morpho-
_ metric dependences. ~
By virtue of historically developing factora Soviet hydrodynamics of river
flow developed along its original path both in the field of experimenta-
tion and in the field of theory. And M. A. Velikanov played a leading role
in the fact that it developed as an important component of the scientific-
theoretical principles of enormous hydroengineering construction work, _
caork on the regulation and improvement of rivers. The ideas of this o.ut-
standing scientist were fundamental in the development of the Soviet sci-
ence of channel processes.
M. A. Velikanov devoted much attention to pedagogic work. Over a number of
years he presented a number of courses to students at the Moscow Hydro-
meteorological Institute and, in particular, a course on hydrology of the
land, and then a course on the water balance. At the Physics Faculty of
Moscow State University M. A. Velikanov presented a course on tlie dynamics
of channel flows.
' 163
- FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
REVIEW OF MONOGRAPH BY A. I. FAL'KOVICH: DINAMIKA I ENERGETIKA VNUTRITROP-
ICHESKOY ZON~ KONVERGENTSII (DYNAMICS AND ENERGY OF THE INTERTROPICAL
CONV~RGENCE ZONE), LENINGRAD, GIDROI~TEOIZDAT, 1979
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 80 pp 118-119 -
[Review by M. A. Petrosyants, Chairman of the GATE Working Group of the
Soviet GARP Commission]
jTextJ In world meteorology during the last decade ever-increasing atten-
tion has been devoted to the problems in tropical meteorology. The number
of articles on tropical meteorology now is already in the hundreds. It is
also not without reason that the first experiment carried out under the
- GARP program was the Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE). This is attrib- .
_ utable to the fact that the tropics, occupying almost half the earth's
area, is the principal supplier of heat and moisture to the atmosphere.
Despite such bro,~d attention to the problems of tropical meteorology, this
region for the time being remains the least studied and the number of So-
viet books on tropical meteorology obviously lags behind foreign publica-
tions.
In this sense the reviewed book is a highly interesting study. First of
all, the very subject of the investigation is interesting: the intertrop-
ical convergence zone. Togett?er with the Trades, it is the most important
feature of circulation in the tropics. Second, it makes extensive use of
observational data fram the Atlantic Tropical Experiment, unquestionably
- the most grandiose and well-prepared experiment during the entire time of
existence of international meteorology.
The book by A. I. Fal'kovich is an extremely literste critical review of
� Modern points of view concerning the ICZ, its structure, atmospheric stab-
_ ility in it, development of ~rave disturhances, modeling o� the ICZ. In
this connection it gives a thorough analysis of the theory of "conditional
instahility of the second kind" urhich is used widely in the west and ex- _
- plains its true value and degree of applicability for describing the tae-
havior of the tropical atmosphere. Taking into account that a great n~smber
of studies in this field liave recently appeared in the English language
and as yet are quite unfamiliar to a broad circle of Soviet meteorologists,
such a compressed and literate analys3s of the results attained t~y science
is undoubtedly extremely valuable.
164 -
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY -
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
_ The book has been divided into three parts: "Intertropical Convergence Zone _
znd the Tropical Atmosphere," "Basic Principles of Processing and Interpret-
ation of Experimental Data in the Tropics" and "Dynamics and Energy of the
IC7, on the Basis of Mean (by Class or Time) GATE Data." _
The first part introduces the reader into a variety of concepts concerning
- the tropical atm~sphere and about the place occupied by the ICZ in it. The
author considers in detail. the principal properties of the ICZ, the con-
ditional atmospheric instability of the first and second kind, and also
convective instability. Here a contribution of the author is a literate
_ physical analysis of the actual value of the theory of conditional instab-
ility of the second kind and also the paradoxical position expressed re-
cently by American specialists concerning the great potential instability
of the cloudless tropical atmosphere in comparison with a center of cloud
concentration. The author convincingly demonstrates that the latter posi-
tion is incorrect.
This same part gives a concise exposition of the hypothesis of "hot towers"
and the hypothesis of critical latitudes. The author also dwells on modern
concepts concerning waves in the tropical atmosphere and their relation-
ship to tlie ICZ. This part is completed by a critical review of existing
numerical models of the ICZ.
The second part sets forth the principles of processing and methods for -
computing dynamic, thermodynamic and energy characteristics in the tropics
and also the peculiarities of interpretation of experimental data applic-
able to the tropical atmosphere. This problem is of independent importance,
taking into account the properties of the atmosphere in the tropics and
their difference from the temperate latitudes. The computation methods pro-
posed by the author can be applied in group shipboard expeditionary inves-
tigations of the oceans.
The third part gives a detailed analysis of the dynamics of atmospheric
novements on the basis of sections of the tropical atmosphere conatructed
on the basis of GATE data for its stable and unstable states. An ob,jective
- classification of atmospheric processes in the tropics is proposed with _
use of the methods of discriminant analysis. This part of the study is -
original and is based for the most part on the studies of Soviet scien-
tists, including the author of the book.
The central place in the book is undoubtedly occupied by the chapter de-
voted to ICZ energy. In this chapter, on the basis af GATE observ4tions,
_ a study is made of the heat balance of the ocean surface, water tempera-
ture and energy balance in the ICZ. The quantity of precipitation is com-
puted, the role of the ICZ in the energy of the tropical atmosphere is
evaluated and the interaction of movements of different scales is analyzed.
liere a number of very important and interesting conclusions are drawn, for
example, that the ICZ, with a width of 3�, yields moisture collected from
an area of the sea surface with a width of 30� in the Trades zone, that is,
165
FOR OFFIC.IAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
that the ICZ is not an exotic strip of well-developed cloud cover, but a
very important circulation feature of the atmoephere, exerting an influ-
ence on moisture transfer from the tropics into the temperate latitudes.
The book is written in good language, at a high theoretical level and at
the same time is not overburdened by mathematical formulas. Being a master
of the mathematical approach describing the dynamics of the tropical atmo-
sphere, the author was able to make his conclusions physically obvious
without having recourse to excessively complex mathematical calculations. ~
_ The publication of this book DYNAMICS AND ENERGY OF THE INTERTROPICAL CON-
VERGENCE ZONE by A. I. Fal'kovich represents a definite stage in the sci-
entific assimilation of observations of the Atlantic Tropical Experiment
and indisputably will serve as a significant contribution of Soviet meteor- -
alogists to the international scientific literature on this subject. _
166
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
CaNCERNING THE REVIEW OF S. G. RUSTAMOV AND S. M. FLEYSHMAN OF THE
COLLECTiQN OF ARTICLES "SELEVYYE POTOKI" ("MUDFLOWS") (MOSCOW,
GIDROMETEOIZDAT, ~ 1976)
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 80 pp 119-121
[Article by Candidate of Geographical Sciences 9. P. Mochalov, T. L. Kir-
enskaya, Candidate of Technical Sciences B. S. Stepanov and A. E. Zems,
submitted for publication 20 April 1979]
[Text] METEOROLOGT~A I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology and Hydrology), No 5, 1978,
contained a review by S. G. Rustamov and S. M. Fleyshman of collection of
articles No 1, published by the Kazakh Scientific Research Hydrometeorolog-
ical Institute, SELEVYYE POTOKI (Mudflows).
While admitting the high scientific value of large-scale experiments with
artificial mudflows in the basin of the Chemolgan River (the results of
which are published in the collection of articles), the reviewers never-
theless accuse the authors of the articles of "invalid generalization and
extremely arbitrary interpretation of observational data," and the editor
of the coll.ection, Yu. V. Vinogradov, "of assertions contradicting the
nature of formation of mudflows, and in individual places even the actual
data from the reported experiments." _
The principal objections of the reviewers relate to two conclusions drawn
in the article by Yu. B. Vinogradov: on the characteristic density of mud-
flows and on the role of obstructions in the wave regime of movement of
mudflows.
A discussion of these problems, of importance in the scientific study of
mudflows (determining the legitimacy of different computation methods) -
could only oe welcomed if it had a more ~ustifiable character. Unfortun-
ately, the review is not sound. For example, the reviewers "refute" the
first of the mentioned conclusions of Yu. B. Vinogradov only by the fol-
lowing assertion: "Tens and hundreds of field measurements and computa-
tions of the density of mudflows, widely known from the literature, make
it entirely obvious that the density of mudflows varies in dependence
on a whole series of factors from 1.2-1.3 to 1.9-2.1 tons/m3, but the
author cou~ters this with only two computarions for artificial mudflows,
\
167
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
whose methodological legitimacy is also doubtful, so that the upper limit
of mudflow density will indicate a conimon pattern for all mudflows. This
assertion by Yu. B. Vinogradov can cause nothing but perplexity among
mudflow specialists."
But the fact is that the "hundreds" of estimates of mudflow density known -
from the literature (for example, all estimates of the density of Alma-Ata
mudfl~ws during the years 1921-1950) were not based on instrumental meas-
urements, but on purely speculative conclusions drawa in an inspection
of mudflow "tracks." The instrumental measurement of mudflow density in-
volves great difficulties and attempts in this direction have not been
in the "hundreds" or even the "dozens;" there have only been a few. I. I.
Kherkheulidze, specially concerned with the collection of data from field
measurements of mudflows, cites a list [3], from which it can be seen that
the density of natural mudflows has been measured in only two basins: on
the Durudzhi River and on the Kok-Cheka River; the measurements pertained
to nine mudflows. The mean density of the mudflow samples in all.cases
~ was close to 2 tons/m3; rare deviations were in the range 1.8-2.25 tons/
m3. The imperfection of the measurement method (digging with a pail) in-
evitably led to an understatement of density since the samples were ta~cen
from the most fluid part of the flow and did not include large fractions.
The experiments in the Chemolganskiy polygon for the first time afforded
a possibility for a more reliable determination of mudflow density. With
use of the mast rigorous (balance) method, and also other procedures
(pressure sens~rs, magnetometric apparatus), the mean density of mudflows
was found to be 2.04 and 2.07 ~ons/m3, and dnring.individu~l in~ervals
2.3 tons/m3. During this time data were obtained on the density of the
Maloalmatinskiy mudflow of 1973 (2.39 tans/m3), which was completely held
back by the Medeo dam, and the Issykskiy mudflow of 1�63 (2.4 tons/m3).
The enumerated values indicate that the conclusion drawn by Yu. B. Vino-
gradov about the formation of mud-rock flows with a high density is by
no means based on two "doubtful" calculations. Also not corresponding to
reality is the assertion of the reviewers that Yu. B. Vinogradov has ex- _
tended this conclusion to all mudflows. In the article by Vinogradov
published in this collection of articles, entitled "The Erosional-Dis-
placement Mudflow Process," he gives a classification scheme, according
to which a high density is characteristic anly of mud and rock flows,
in contrast to alluvium-water mudflows, forming under other conditions,
and whose de:~sity is determined only by the transporting capacity of the
water flow.
Thus, the attempt of the reviewers to refute the first conclusion in the
article by Yu. B. Vinogradov is unsuccessful.
The second, "especially serious error" and "dangerous delusion" of Yu. B.
Vinogradov, in the opinion of the reviewers, "...is the denial of the -
obstructional nature of the movement of mudflows." Alon~ the~e lines, it
ia necessary to note the following.
168 -
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
The suddenness of passage of mudflows and absence of ineasurements were
the reasons why over the course of a prolonged period the development of
scientific concepts concerning mudflows occurred under conditions of an
almost total absence of observational data. Mudflows were studied ex-
clusively from the tracks of their movement, as a result of which the
lacking information an the mechanism of formation and dynamica of move-
ment of mudflows was supplied by pure speculation. However, one of the
most viable hypotheses of this kind was the concept of the obstruction
- nature of mudflows.
Meeting with descriptions of a wal~-like movement of mudflows and observ-
ing the traces of marked fluctuation of the maximum levels of flow along
the length of a valley, researchers attributed this phenomenon to the
bursting of obstructions, by which is meant "barriers encumbering the
channel," caused by landslides and talus from the sides, gravitational
rock concentrations and other natural embankments. The hypothesis of
"bursting of obstructions" was widelq disseminated and as a direct con-
sequence there were engineering recommendations on the straightening and
- cleaning up of mudflow channels, "preventive removal of obstructions, en-
cumbrances, gravitational rock concentrations in channels" [2] facilitat- -
ing the formation of barriers in the path of mudflows.
However, with a more thorough study of mudflow phenomena it became clear
that the mentioned hypothesis is not confirmed. The first serious inves-
tigations of this matter, carried out by G. V. Ivanov in 1952-1956 by -
- means of artificial reproduction of mud-rock flows, led to the conclusion
that the formation of waves in a mudflow does not occur due to the burst-
ing of obstructions, but in the process of mudflow movement [1]. The sta-
_ tionary observations in mudflow~basins of the Durudzhi and Kok-Cheka
Rivers carried out in subsequent years also confirmed this conclusion.
During this same period a more thorough study was made of the cata-
strophic mudflows occurring in the territory of the country. However,
up to the preaent time we do not know of a single example of obaervation
of obatructions in the interpretation of the reviewers (despite the as-
sertion of the latter. an extensive literature is d~voted to ob-
structions, which Yu. B. Vinogradov ignores..."). Experiments at Chemol-
_ gan, making it possible to observe the entire mechanism of mudflow forma-
- tion in a typical mudflow "focus," made possible a final refutation of
outdated concepts. Observation of the wave regime of movement of mudflows
at Chemolgan in the absence of any obstructions is an obvious demonstra- -
. tion that obstructions are not a necessary condi~tion for the appearance
of a wave regime and that the reasons fur the latter are related to the
internal dynamics of the process (similar to the phenomenon of travelling
waves in rapid flows). The reviewers do not agree with this and insist
- that the "formation of obstructions in mountain channels is one of the _
most important peculiarities characteristic of mudflows," that although
"obstructions are not the only factor responsible for the wave character
of mudflow m~vement, their role is exceptionally great." In demonstration
that they are correct they cite a not entirely convincing example of the
169
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
bursting of the Mynzhilki dam on the M. Almatinka River in 1973 as a re- -
ault of a catastrophic glacial-breakthrough flood. "It is generally
known," write the reviewers, "that the unstable Mynzkilki gabion dam...
was burst, that there was a marked increase in the magnitude and power
of the flow." In order to back up their arguments they cite an article
from the collection devoted to the mudflow of 1973 and assert that the
authors of this article, allegedly, "confirm the fact that the gabion dam
was reached, for the most part, by a water flow, which after bursting of
the dam was transformed into a mudflow, and that the magnitude of the
flow after bursting of the obstruction (the dam) increased."
A natural question arises: what relationship to the role of obstructions
in the wave dynamics of mudflows can have the example of bursting of a
water-holding dam? What do the reviewers wish to convince the readers of:
that the bursting of dams results in a catastrophic increase in water
discharge and erosion? There is no need to demonstrate this.
In the article on the mudflow of 1973, published in the collection of ar- -
ticles, to which the reviewers refer, the opposite is demonstrated: there
was no increase in the volume or maximum discharge of a mudflow-forming
high water as a result of the bursting of the Mynzhilki dam. Observation-
- al data and computations are cited refuting the earlier published version
- of S. M. Fleyshman that this dam supposedly played a fateful role in form-
ing the mudflow. Passing over these proofs in silence, the reviewers ex-
tract from the article only a reference to the effect that in the absence
of the dam the first (but not the maximum) mudflow wave could be lower,
and the fact that above the dam there was no mud and rock mudflow, where-
as below it did develop. It must be emphasized that exaggeration of the
role of obstructions in the movement of mudflows in actuality is a dan- ~
gerous error. From s~~^h a point of view the maximum discharges of mudflows
_ are not subject to prediction at all because it is unthinkable to cal-
culate the parameters of bursting of hypothei:ical obstructions capable of
forming in the channel due to talus and the collapse of slopes. The as-
sertian that it is specifically such obstructions which explain the ab-
sence of a direct prdportionality between the area of a basin and the
parameters of mudflows diverts one's attention from study of the raal
reason for this discrepancy, involving, most frequently, the possibility
of the appearance of a purely displacement mechanism of mudflow formation. _
Relying on the point of view of the reviewers, the engineer and planner,
in the field encountering a linear mudflow channel (mudflow "focus"), are
forced to assume that the form of the mudflow hydrograph will be dependent,
- for the most part, on the intensity of the runoff from the drainage basin
of the mudflow "focus" or the mudflow drainage basin. In actuality, the
linearity of the mudflow channel does not exclude, in our opinion, but
on the contrary, causes a marked exceeding of the extremal values of the
discharges of the mudflow over the average.
The questions raised in the review are of considerable practical importance ~
and this is why we have published these comments. ~
170
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/48: CIA-RDP82-44850R000200074417-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
BIBLIOGRAPHY
- 1. Ivanov, G. V., "Data on the Dynamic Structure of Mudflows," MATERIALY
IV VSESOYUZNOY KONFERENTSII PO SELEVYM POTOKAM (Materials on the
Fourth All-Union Conference on Mudflows?, Alma-Ata, Izd-vo AN Kaz-
akhskoy SSR, 1959.
2. Fleyshman, S. M., SELI (Mudflows), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1978.
3. Kherkheul idze, I. I., "Flow Velocities and Channel Characteristics of -
Mudflows," TRUDY ZakNIGMI (Transactions of the Transcaucasian Sci-
entific Research Hydrometeorological Institute), No 40(46), 1972.
171 -
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/48: CIA-RDP82-44850R000200074417-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
SIXTI~TH BIRTHDAY OF PIIKHAIL IVANOVICH BUDYKO
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 80 p 122
- jUnsigned articleJ
"i~
~ ~ xa
' ~ t ` .
i i 3
. ~ r~
z '
~ h ~
:ff T f
~ ~ ~
~s , ~F~ ,t~!,.5~�
: y . , ~d '
~
a
~
r
. .!.t ,.,:o.
:i
' -
t~
):s:'.
jText] Corresponding Member USSR Academy of Sci.ences Mikhail Ivanovich
Budyko marks his 60th birthday on 20 January 1980. An outstanding Soviet
scientist, he is one of the creators of modern nhysical climatology, the
172
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
acientific director of investigations on the problem of chan~es in climate,
a member of the editorial board of the ~ournal Z~TEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA,
an honorary member of the American Meteorological Society, a winner of the
Lenin Prize.
- The board of the USSR State Co~nittee on Hydrometeorology and Environmental
I~~[onitoring congratulates Budyko on this noteworthy date and wishes him good
health and new creative successes.
173
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
SE~.~NTIETH BIRTHDAY OF ALEKSAIdDR KHRISTOFOROVICH KHRGIAN
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 80 pp 123-124
fArticle by students, friends and colleagues]
[Text) Aleksandr Khristofo~ovich Khrgian marks his seventieth birthday on ~
21 January.
The name of A. Kh. Khrgian is inseparably associated with Soviet meteorol-
ogy. He began his work activity 50 years ago in the Hydrometeorological
Committee of the Council of People's Commissars of the RSFSR (the predeces- _
sor of the State Committee on Hydrometeorology), where he was assigned af-
ter gr3duation from the physics and mathematics faculty of Moscow State
Universi~y. Productive scientific work, active teaching and scientific-
public activity earned him universal respect and broad fame not only in
the USSR, but also abroad.
_ � t7~ Y, ~.~V
~~~i
.y. ~y
_ }1^7
~r;
_
,
x.
s X::
~l
;f u
zc, fF.: -
~ ~ ~ ~
~
~ TY ~~~z~~~
~i~
~ s. ;
u`i N~
~`b_.-`. r._ , . .~`~~7~�t. Y~�`'
174
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
- FOR t~FFICIAL USE ONLY
In 1936 Aleksandr Khristoforovich defended his Candidate'~ dissertati~n on
the climatolo~y of precipitation. At the same time he carried out interest-
ing investigations of blizzards and snow drifts.
Having good theoretical preparation, Aleksandr Khristoforovich ably combin-
ed a general physical theoretical approach to investigated phenomena and
experimental observations. This remarkable quality was already clearly ~n.~n-
ifeszed in his earliest studies on investigation of permafrost in which lab- -
oratory and expeditionary investigations were closely combined. _
Since the late 1930's Aleksandr Khristoforovich has actively studied dif-
ferent aspects of mountain meteorology. Without question, his involvement
' with this aub~ect matter was closely associated with the particular love
of Aleksandr Khristoforovich for the mountains and his passionate devotion
- to alpinism. Together with his students, A. Kh. Khrgian carried out a num-
l~er of expeditions in which he collected unique material on the peculiar-
ities of air circulation in mountain regions, on clouds and the temperature
� and humidity fields.
_ Since 1945 A. Kh. Khrgian has been a specialist at the Central Aerological
Observatory. There, under his direction, was born the Moscow school of ex-
perimental cloud physics which was later developed by his students A. M.
Lorovikol and others. Studies in this field were generalized in the widely
known monograph FIZIKA OBLAKOV (Cloud Physics), published in 1961. Aleksandr
Khristoforovich was thP initiator of its writing, was the editor and one of
its authorr;. The first Soviet C1oud Atlas, a highly important aid for
= meteorolugical ohservers, was prepared under his direction in 1957.
~ Beginning in the 1960's, Aleksandr Khristoforovich h~s devoted his m.ain at-
= tention to the physics of atmospheric ozone. In 1973 he published a ger~er-
alizing monograph oa this groblem, and in 1979 he published the book en-
- titled SOV~tEMENNYYE YROBLEMY ATMOSFERNOGC~ OZONA (Present-Day Problems of
Atmospheric Ozone), which he wrote in collaboration with his student S. P.
Perov. -
The teaching activity of A. Kh. Khrgian has been extensive and diversified. ~
Be~inning in 1934 he was a docent at the Moscow Hydrometeorological Insti-
- tute. In the storr~ry years of the Great Fatherland War, he, working at the
lligher Military Hydrometeorological Institute, devoted many efforts to
the training of military meteorologists. There he complEted and in 1943
- defended his doctoral dissertation, becoming a major capital work on the
- history of ineteorology, which ra published in I948 and republished in 1959.
This pi~blication, like the books on cloud physics and atmospheric ozone,
, was translated into English and published abroad. Love for the history of
science was one of the vital interests of Aleksandr Khristoforovich. There
_ are numero~s well-known articles, reviews and sketches devoted to the bio- ~
graphies of leading Soviet and foreign meteorologists which were written
with love by the pen of A. Kh. Khrgian.
- 175
FdR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
1
-
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Iieginning in 194% Aleksandr Khristoforovich was a professor in the ?hysics
Faculty of Moscow State University. There he established the first course
on physics uf the atmosphere in our country, Over a period of 25 years
the monograph of A, Kh. Khrgian entitled FIZIKA ATMOSFERY (Atmospheric
Physics) went through four editions. It is difficult to find a meteorol-
- ogist in our country who has not attended the lectures of Aleksandr Khrist-
oforovich or has not studied from his textbooks.
The enormous scientific and teaching activity of Aleksandr Khristoforovich
is combined with tireless public-scientific activity. For many years he
' was a member of the executive committee of ;.he Internatior_~1 Association of
_ Meteorology and Atmosph~~ric Physics, as well as international commissions on
cloud physics and atmospheric ozone. He is still working on the ozone com-
mission. He is deputy chairman of the section on meteorology and atmospheric
physics of the Interdepartmental Geophysical Committee of the Presidium USSR
Academy of Sciences, a member of the editorial board of the Hydrometeorolog-
ical Publishing House and the editorial board of the journal IZVESTIYA AKAD-
EMII NAUK SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY t OKEANA (News of the USSR Academy of Sci-
ences, Physics of the Atmosphere and Ocean), a member of the scientific
councils of a number of institute5, etc.
~
A. Kh. Khrgian has prepared more than 30 Candidates of Sciences. Tens of
D~etors of Sciences regard themselves as his students. And today, as be-
, fore, he is at the forefront of science. During the last 10 years alone he
has published more than 30 scientiflc articles and 4 monographs, not count- _
ing numerous reviews, book reviews and sketches. He is filled with energy
and creative plans.
In congratulating Aleksandr Khristoforovich on his memorable anniversary we
want to wish him good health and the same active and productive work for
long years.
~
176
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
:FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
~ _
i
I
i
;
EIGHTIETH BIRTHDAY OF ALEKSANDR BOLESLAVOVICH KALINOVSKIY
- Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 80 pp 124-125
[Article by P. I. Smirnov, G. G. Tarakanov, D. L. Laykhtman, L. G. Kachurin, `
N. Z. Pinus and M. A. German]
[Text] On 15 November 1979 Aleksandr Boleslavovich Kalinovskiy, the well-
known Soviet professional aerolo~ist, marked his 80th birthday.
' ;
.
x
iX ,
~ f~ -
~.~:i.. . .
..~t
' ~v: H ~ i:
~s.~.i
, "r~,{
Aleksandr Boleslavovich was horn in Kaluga. During ~:hE years 1919. through
1922 he served ir? the Red Army and participated i.n t:: Civil War.
Kalinovskiy began his scientific activity in 1926, ~rhen he, still being a
student at Mos.cow State University, proceeded to ~aork as a s.cientific
specialist (second level) at tha aerological ohservatory in the State
Scientific Research Geophysical Insti.tute (Moscow). In 1927 Kalinovskiy
177
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
graduated from the Physics-Mathematics Faculty of Moscow State University
in the "geophysics" field of specialization. Ir~ 1930 he was named to the
post of senior scientific specialist in the aerological ~nservatory. Af-
ter reorganization of the Geophysical Institute (1934) Kalinovskiy became
t~ead of the aerological observatory of tne Central Inatitute of Experi-
mental Hydrology and Meteorology. In a subsequent reorganization he was
transferred to the post of senior scienti:fic specialist in the aerology
division of the Central Institute of Forecasts, where he worked until
1938.
The professional meteorologists V. I. Vitkevich and V. A. Khanevskiy, well
known at that time, exerted a great influence on the formation of Kalin-
ovskiy as a scientist. On the advice of Khanevskiy Kalinovskiy turned to
the scientific problea,s of physics of the free atmosphere and methods for
aerological investigat_ons, which for many years later determined the di-
rection of his scientific activity. Kalinovskiy made a whole series of
important scientific-practical studies on aerosynoptic analysis of cy-
clones and on the use of aerological sounding data in weather analysis
and forecasting (in collaboration with V. P. Nekrasov and Kh. Pogos-
yan).
I:alinovskiy defended his Candidate's dissertation in 1~41 on the basis
of the results of long�-term investigations of tY _ tP,perature-wind re-
gime of the free atmosphere over Moscow.
The scientific activity of Aleksandr Boleslavovich was not limited to
_ ~aithin the walls of the aerological observatory. Over a period of many
years he was an active participant in different scientific expeditions:
- for study of the structure of breeze winds on the Kerch Peninsula (1924),
for investigating the density of sea ice and evaporation in the Barents
Sea aboard the scientific research ship "Persey" (1926) and on use of
l~inescent trails for studying stratospheric winds (1936).
In 1933 Kalinovskiy worked at the Institute of Dirigible Construction,
where, in particular, he investigated problems relating to the meteor-
ological stipport of flights of high-altitude balloons and dirigibles.
In 1934 he participated in the meteorological support of launching of
the stratospheric balloon "Osoviakhim-1" (Professor A. P. Molchanov
was responsible for the meteorological support).
Kalinovskiy combined all his scientific activity successfully with teach-
ing work. During 1932-1933 he served as an instructor at the technical
school of the Civil Air Fleet, during 1934-1945 he was a docent at the _
P~foscow Hydrometeorological Institute and since the year 1946 he has
been a d~cent in the department of aerology and dynamic meteorology at _
the Leningrad Hydrometeorological Institute. All of the post-war scien-
tific-pedagogic activity of Kalinovskiy is associated with the Leningrad
Hydrometeorolegical Institute. Under his direction the students at the
Leningrad Hydrometeorological Institute defended tens of course and
diploma projects.
178
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
A result of t:ie many years of scientific-pedagogic activity of Kalinovskiy
was the academic aid written by him in collaboration with N. Z. Pinus en-
titled AEROLOGIYA (Aerology) (195I). In 1961 these same authors published
a textbook on aerology for students at hydrometeorological colleges and
universities.
- At the present time Kalinovskiy is on a merited rest. We wish Aleksandr
Boleslavovich gcod health'and many more years of life.
_ 179
FOR OFFICIAL U5E ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
PTOTES ON ACTIVITIES AT THE USSR STATE COMMITTEE ON HYDROMETEOROLOGY AND
-a ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 80 p 125
[Article by A. V. Kolokol'chikov]
[Text] The State Committee on Hydrometeorology has planned the holding of
a number of all-union scientific and scientific-technical meetings, con~
ferences and symposia for 1980.
In the plan much attention is being devoted to the problems involved in
the study of climate, prediction of its changes and variations, and also
preservation of the environment. -
For example, in February at the Main Geophysical Observatory at Leningrad
there will be a conference on *he subject "Modeling of Climate, its Changes
and Variations." Among the conference participants will be organizations
of the State Committee on Hydrometeorology, USSR Academy of Sciences and
the USSR Ministry of Higher Institutions of Education.
During March, at the State Hydrological Institute, there will be an All-
Union Conference on the Problem of Anthropogenic Change of Climate. Spec-
ialists of the State Committee on Hydrometeorology and the USSR Academy of
Sciences will participate in the work of the conference.
In March plans call for holding a conference on "Means and Prospects for "
the Development of Work on Monitoring Environmental Contamination," to be
l~eld at the All-Union Exhibition of Achievements in tht National Economy.
The Institute of Applied Geophysics will be responsible for carrying out
this conference. Among the participants will be institutes of the State
Committee on Hydrometeorology, Ministry of the Chemical Industry, Ministry
of the Petroleum Industry and Ministry of Power.
In October, at Obninsk, the Institute of Experimental Meteorology will
- carry out a symposium on "Influence of Environmental Contamination on
i Change of the Earth's Climate." In addition to institutes of the State
Committee on Hydrometeorology, the symposium will be attended by repre-
sentatives of institutes of the USSR Academy of Sciences and the USSR Min-
istry of Higher Inst~tutions of Education.
180
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY _
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
During this same month at the All-Union Exhibition of Achievements in
the National Economy the All-Union Scientific Research Institute of
Agricultural Meteorology will hold a conference on "Hydrometeorological
Support of Agriculture in the Nonchernozem Zone of the RSFSR." In addi-
tion to the State Committee on Hydrometeorology, the institutes of the
USSR Ministry of Agriculture will participate in the conference.
In November, also at the All-Union Exhibition of Achievements in the
National Economy, the Institute of Applied Geophysics will hold a confer-
ence on "~tatus and Prospects of Development of Prediction of Changes
in the Environment Under the Influence of Construction and Operation of
the Second Stage of the Kansko-Achinskiy Fuel-Power Complex." The con-
ference will be attended by scientists and specialists of the State Com-
mittee on Hydrometeorology, USSR Power Ministry, USSR Coal Industry Min-
istry and the Siberian Department USSR Academy of Sciences.
In November plans also call for carrying out a conference on "The Nature
of the Arctic Under Conditions of Interzonal Redistribution of Water Re-
sources" at the Arctic and Antarctic Scientific Research Institute. The
participants will include specialists from the State Co~ittee on Hydro-
meteQrology, USSR Academy of Sciences, USSR Ministry of the Merchant Mar-
ine, Ministry of Higher Institutions of Education RSFSR, USSR Ministry of
Higher Institute~ of Education, USSR Water Management Ministry, USSR Fish-
ing Ministry, Ministry of the River Fleet RSFSR. ~
Finally, in November, at Obninsk, the Central Design Bureau of Hydro-
meteorological Instrument Making will hold a conference on "Technical
Means for the State System of Observations and Monitoring of the Envir-
onment and Climate."
181
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY -
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY _
CONFERENCES, i-1EETII7GS AND SEMINARS
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 80 pp 125-127
[Article by L. G. Zastavenko and L. A. Chubukov]
[Text] An all-union symposium on "Physical Principles of Change in Modern
Climate" was held in Moscow during the period 23-25 April 1979. The objec-
tive of the symposium was an exchange of knowledge on changes and fluctua-
tions of modern climate and study of their physical causes.
The symposium was attended by 202 specialists from the USSR Academy of Sci-
ences and the union republics, the State Committee on Hydrometeorology and
Environmental Monitoring, univeraities and other colleges and organiza-
tions arriving in Moscow from 29 cities of the Soviet Union.
At the symposium opening addresses were presented by the Chairman of the
Moscow Affiliate of the Geographical Socie:y I. n. Papanin and the First
Deputy Chairman of the State Committee on Hydrometeorology and Environmen-
tal Monitoring Yu. S. Sedunov.
In the 52 reports heard at the symposium, presented by representatives of
34 institutes of different departments, information was given on three
ciifferent themes: factors in the formation and change of climate, zatural
changes in climate, anthropogenic changes in climate, including changes
in urban climate.
Among the numerous geophysical factors which can determine modern changes
and fluctuations in climate, at the symposium attention was given to
changes in the solar constant, trans.Eormation of properties of the under-
lying surface, changes in the gas and aerosol composition of the atmosphere
(K. Ya. Kondrat~yev, M. I. Budyko, K. Ya. Vinnikov, 0. A. Drozdov, N. A.
Yefimova); fluctuations in the shor~-wave part oi W radiation and X-radia-
tion, solar corpuscular radiation, solar wind, changes in the sign of the
interplanetary magr~etic field (IMF) caused by solar ard solar-planetary
cycles (L. R. Rakipova, V. F. Loginov and B. I. Sazonov; V. A. Belinskiy,
A. A. Dmitriyev, V. D. Reshetov, B. A. Sleptsov-Shevelevich, V. N. Chepur-
noy, V. N. Plakhotnyuk); fluctuations of the earth's rotational regime
_ (F. I. Rudyayev); autooscillatory processes in the atmosphere (0. A. Droz-
dov, V. D. Reshetov, 0. P. Chizhov); disruption of the codinensionality .
182 -
FOR OFFICIAL USE ObT~,Y
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
between heat and moisture resources (V. S. Mezentsev); changes in atmospher-
ic circulation (M. Kh. Baydal and A. I. Neushkin).
K. Ya. Kondrat'yev drew attention to what for the time being is inadequate
understanding of the physical, chemical and biological processes exerting
an influence on climatic changes and the necessity for clarification of the
contribution of anthropogenic factors. M. I. Budyko, et al. demonstrated
that with conformity of the increase in the atmospheric content of C02 in
dependence on fuel combustion to an exponential law of maintenance of the
present-day rates of energy development there should be an apprer_iable in-
crease in the observable air temperature in individual regions, already
by the end of the current cen*.ury. In the opinion of Ye. P. Borisenkov,
the existing models of an increase in C02 content are in need of improve-
ment and therefore at the present time science is capable of giving only
qualitative estimates of the trends of the effect of different anthropogen-
ic factors on climate.
A. A. Dmitriyev investigated the mechanisms of the re?ationship between
the changes in the density of the flux of X-radiation and also sectors of
the IMF and the climatic characteristics of state of the atmosphere. The
model computations of L. R. Rakipova, V. F. Loginov and B. I. Sazonev give
- a qL~ntitative evaluation of the effectiveness of the ozone mechanism. Ac-
cording to B. A. Sleptsov-Shevelevich, the fluctuations of solar activity
are transmitted to the earth and its atmosphere through the magnetosphere,
in the final analysis causing 7- and 22-year variations of the pressure
field and the instantaneous axis of the earth's rotation.
According to V. D. Reshetov, the propagation of the solar wind is influenc-
ed by the positioning of the planets. V. N. Plakhotnyuk detected frequency-
dependent unstable matched fluctuations of different parameters of solar
activity with fluctuations of geomagnetic activity, climatic characteris-
tics of the state of the atmosphere and mutual displacement displacements
oi the axes of rotation of the core, mantle and atmosphere.
It is noted that W radiation s':~rter than 315 nm (W-B) changes far more
under the influence of anthropogenic effects than the integral flux. F. I.
Rudyayev gave a theoretical validation of the relationship of the change in
the earth's rotational regime and change in the pressure field. N. M. Svat-
kov proposed a new method for determining the earth's planetary albedo, bas-
ed on use of the method of orthographic cartographic projections together
with satellite data on the coverage of the earth with clcuds and the radia-
tion influx at the upper boundary of the atmosphere.
The reports of L. I. Sverlova, V. M. Zhukov, V. S. Mezentsev and A. A. Vel-
ichko presented the paleogeographic direction in investigations of climatic
_ changes. In particular, A. A. Velichko, on the basis of a comparison of the
conditions prevai.ling in the last glaciation and the optimum of the last _
interglacial period with the conditions of today drew the conclusion that ~
the optimum of the present interglacial period has already passed.
183
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
The reports in the second direction discussed the tendencies in changes
in temperature and moistening on global (0. A. Drozdov, L. G. Spirina
and L. Ye. Borisova, M. Kh. Baydal and A. I~ Neushkin, Kh. P. Pogosyan
and A. A. Pavlovskaya) and regional scales (L. G. polozova, L. Vo Klimen-
E:o, G. N. Vitvitskiy, I. S. Glukh and N. K. Kononova, V. V. Kupriyanov,
and others) in depennence on atmospheric circulation or independently.
It was noted by 0. A. Drozdov that the correlation between changes in tem-
perature and precipitation can be direct and inverse, in dependence on the
physical nature of the formation of precipitation. L. G. Spirina and L. Ye.
'~orisova found that against a background of general cooling in the north-
ern hemisphere there are periodic fluctuations of temperature wit4 consid-
erable amplitudes, shifting from east to west. According to M. Kh. Baydal
and A, I. Neushkin, the tendency to a change in the relationship of the num-
ber of months with latitudinal (W) and meridional forms of circulation (E
- and C) in the northern hemisphere noted since 1930-1940 is accompanied by
an increase in the frequency of occurrence of large anomalies and shifts
in the structure of climate against a background of insignificant changes
in mean annual temperatures.
Kh. P. Pogosyan and A. A. Pavlovskaya formulated a hypothesis according to
which the cyclic alternation of westerly and easterly winds in the equa-
torial stratosphere is governed by the cyclicity of atmospheric processes
in the earth's extratropical latitudes.
On the basis of use of spectral analysis A. I. Voskresenskiy, L. S. Pet-rov
and A. N. Lyubarskiy detected cyclic fluctuations of inean monthly tempera-
ture of different duration in the Arctic; V. K. Astok and A. Kh. Tarand
in the Gulf of Finland; I. Ya. Alikina, S. I. Kulikova, M. V. Muravey- `
skaya and M. S. Akhmetov in the Urals; L~ P. Sorokina, V. F. Durnev
and M. F. Semenchuk in Eastern Siberia; V. P. ~agua and L. K. Papinash- -
vili in fluctuations of temperature and precipitation in Transcaucasia.
In all of the regions in one of the first places there is a cycle which in
duration approaches the 11- or 22-year cycles ot solar activity.
A. A. Nagaytsev demonstrated that the fluctuations and trends in the winter
regime are clarified clearly by the methods of complex climatology. G. Ye.
Grishankov and T. A. P7ovikova, I. A. Bastiall;hanov and G. N. Mart'yanova,
using different principles, developed a classification of moistening r~gime
years for the Crimea and Steppe Transbaykalia for the nurpose of using them
for climatic prediction.
Reports in the third direction dealt with the problems involved in changes
in carbo.. ~ioxide in the atmosphere (S. P. Gorshkov); the influence of
tliermal industrial effluent (Ye. P. Borisenkov, V. P. Meleshko, V. N. Pri-
yem~v and B. Ye. Shneyerov), reservoirs (A. I. D'yakonov and L. G. Strel-
ochnykh) and hydroelectric power stations (Ye. B. Bravaya), shifting of
waters of Western Siberian rivers into arid regions of the USSR (L. S.
Potapova), reducing the forest coverage of areas (0. B. Soromotina; A. D.
184
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/48: CIA-RDP82-44850R000200074417-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Eyyubov, Kh. Sh. Rakhimov and N. D. Ulkhanov; G. N. Grigor'yev, I. Ye.
Trofimova and V. A. Afanas'yev), hydromeliaration of swa~ps (V. F. SheS-
ek~ and P. A. Kovrigo) and the development of livestock raising (L. A.
Mikhaylova) on changes in different climatic characteristics of the at-
mosphere and also the preservation of the environm~nt in the Lake Baykal
area (N. P. Ladeyshchikov and Y~. N. Ladeyshchikova) and the method for
quantitative evaluation of purposeful climatic, soil and landscape changes
(A. R. Konstantinov).
As a supplement to the program G. N. Nikol'skiy told about the effect of
nuclear shots ~~hich have been set off on fluctuations of air temperature
in the stratosphere.
In the reports relating to changes in urban climate the speakers proposed
for discussion problems relating to change in atmospheric transparency,
the thermal effect of a city on the atmosphere, the moistening regime and
the relationship of tendencies in the change of climatic characteriatics,
atmospheric circulation and solar activity.
It was noted in these reports that a city, without changing the general
tendency in change of the turbidity factor, exerts a considerable influ- -
ence on the degree of atmospheric turbidity (G. M. Abakumova, T. V. Yev-
nevich, N. P. Nikol'skaya; Ts. A. Afanas'yeva, L. K. Bondarenko, T. S.
Rustamova; V. N. Gorbacheva). A warming influence of a city, which is
most conspicuous during winter, is conf irmed (A. A. Gerburt-Geybovich,
A. A. Bagdasaryan, V. N. Gorbacheva), increases with the development ef
a city and is considerably greater in transpolar cities, all other con-
ditions being equal.
The participants in the symposium unanimously noted the timeliness and use-
fulness of holding of the symposium. In a resolution adopted by the sympo-
aium there is a listing of the directions whose development is of funda-
mental importance for solution of the problem. For the purpose of coordin-
ating the work it was deemed necessary that conferences on individual parts
of the problem be organized regularly.
~
185
FOR OFFICIA;. USE ~NLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
.
NOTES FROM ABROAD
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 1, Jan 80 pp 127-128 -
[Article by B. I. Silkin]
[TextJ As reported in NATURE, Vol 277, No 5692, p 121, 1979, one of the
sections af th~ international program "Dynamics of Climate" provides
for study of chemistry of the atmosphere as a climatological factor. Ac- `
cordi~gly, during 1977-1978 the meteorologists of the United States
~ carried out the ccllection of air samples for its isotopic analysis and
dete:mination o~ the content of carbon dioxide. In order to obtain a
_ planetary pattern the eacperiment was carried out at points extremely
remote from one another: at La Jolla (California, 33�N, 117�W), on
Fanning atoll (Central Polynesian Archipelago, 4�N, 159�W) and at the
Antarctic polar station Amundsen-Scott (South Pole). In order to ensure
comparability of the data, the collection of air samples and their anal-
ysis were carried out with use of the same method as in the course of a
similar experiment carried out during 1955-1~56.
It has been established that the content of carbon dioxide in dry air is
closely related to the ratio of the carbon isotopes C13 and C12 in it. _
For example, in the earth's northern hemisphere, with a C02 concentra-
tiou of 33.42�10-3 y, this ratio is 7.55%. However, in the southern hemi- _
sphere, with a content of carbon dioxide attaining only 33.26�10'3y, this
value is 7.5~%.
~ Applying the extrapolation method, scientists determined that during the
, last 22 years (1956-1978) the content of carbon dioxide in the earth's
atmosphere decreased from 34.11�10-3Y to 33.42�10-3%. In agreement with
- this, the ratio of the C13 isotope to the C12 isotope regularly increased
from 6.69y to 7.24%. The difference in this ratio (although small) between
the two planetary hemispheres is traced during the extent of the entire
studied period.
- The participants in the investigations postulate that the reduction in the
_ content of carbon dioxide in the earth's air envelope which they discover-
ed can be attributed to the decrease in coal combustion in most of the in-
ustrially developed countries which has come about during recent decades.
- 186
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
I
~
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/48: CIA-RDP82-44850R000200074417-4
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
The conclusions drawn in the course of these sLUdies are applicable, in
particular, in an independent checking of paleoclimatological investiga-
tions based on measurement of the carbon content in tree rings.
As reported in SCIENCE NEWS, Vol 115, No 2, p 22, 1979, the glaciologist
J. D. Hays, speaking at an annual conference of the American Association
for the Advancement of Science in Houston (Texas) in January 1979, re-
ported on the results of study of the influence which the sea ice of the
southern hemisphere exerts on climate at a global scale.
Until now the opinion has prevailed that glaciation in the northern hemi-
_ sphere sets in earlier than in the southern hemisphere and is a factor in
the chain of events resulting in the latter. The data collected bv Hays,
in his opinion indicate the opposite. The southern hemisphere as a whole,
_ and Antarctica in particular, have a greater sensitivity to climatic
changea and are entering int~ the epoch of the next glaciation several
thousands of years earlier than the northern hemisphere.
In a study carried out earlier by Hays and his associates it was demon-
- strated that insignificant and predictable changes in the geometry of
the earth's orbit (distance of the planet from the sun, inclination of
the earth's axis, shape of orbit) lead to regularly repeating trans-
itions from the glacial periods to warmer conditions. However, such
changes in themselves are very small and the mechanism which in the long
run leads to such large-scale shifts has remained unknown.
Now Hays has come to the conclusion that the principal factor in these
processes is the quantity of sea ice in the waters washing the shores
of Antarctica.
~ Such a conc~usion was drawn on the basis of an analysis of a number of
columns of bottom material taken ty scientific research ships in the ex-
treme southern regions of the Indian Ocean. It is well known that in
cases when sedimentary rocks on the sea floor contain a great quantity
of fossil residue of diatomaceous microorganisms, the corresponding re-
gions in the past constituted an open basin, not locked by ice. On the
other hand, if the sediments contain an abundant amount of clays, the
sea in the past was covered with ice, impeding the growth of diatoms.
The advance and retreat of the ice, associated with change in season of
the year, are ascertained by determining the position and time of forma-
- tion of the line serving as the boundary between sediments conta~ning
clay and those rich in diatomaceous sediments. Thus, on the basis of
such a delimiting line, traced in layers of a bottom core ~ th an age
of 20,000 years, ~esearchers have established that during t.iis time, dur-
ing the period of the south polar summer, about 20 million square kilo-
meters of ocean surface were covered with ice. This is approximately an
order of magnitude greater than in the correspnnding season at present.
187
FOR OFFIC~AL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4
FOR OFFICIAL 'JSE ONLY
~ In winter during this period there were up to 40 million square kilometers
under the ice, that is, twice as much as at the present time.
An ex^eedingly important conclusion is that the transition from conditions
~;ith an extensive glacier cover to the present situation was extremely
abrupt: it occupied only about 300 years. Similarly, the increase in gla-
ciation at the beginning of the last glacial period also occupied several
centuries, although in the northern hemisphere this happened several thous-
and years later.
In the bottom cores subjected to analysis it is possible to trace the fol-
iowing events. An insignificant change in the earth's orrit led to changes
in the distribution of solar radiation on a global scale, and thereby to
- shifts in seasons. After 3,000-8,000 years the mass of sea ice in subant-
arctic waters increased sharply and the temperature of the sea surface was
reduced.
An advance of glaciation also began in the northern hemisphere after sev-
eral thousand years. It is extremely probable that the albedo associated
- with this increased over the entire earth, thereby reducing the quantity
of solar energy absorbed by the planet. As a result, the climate became
col~ier.
The lower temperatures of the sea surface could lead to changes in circul-
ation of ocean wat~rs. The contact of the cold waters of southern seas
with the warmer waters in the Central Atlantic increased evaporation,
which was followed by an increase in the condensation of precipitation
and an intensification of snowialls, which also led to glaciation in the
northern hemisphere.
J. D. Hays, on this basis, has formulated a long-range climatological f~re-
~ cast in which he predicts that a new glacial period can be expected in the
course of the neat several thousand years. He proposed the organization of
observations of the dynamics of sea ice using satellites because precise-
ly these processes can serve all humanity as a means for "timely warning"
of the approaching glaciation. However, at the present time there are no
indications of an increase in the mass of sea ice, although the tempera-
ture of the surface of subantarctic waters has decreased slowly during the
last 9,000 years.
COPYRIGHT: "Meteorologiya i gidrologiya," 1980
[5-5303]
5303 -END-
CSO: 1864
188
~ FOR 0~'FICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200070017-4