JPRS ID: 9122 WORLDWIDE REPORT TELECOMMUNICATIONS POLICY, RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

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APPROVE~ FOR RELEASE= 2007/02/08= CIA-R~P82-00850R000200060008-5 I ~ ~ . ~ i 0 F 1 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY JPRS L%8967 7 March 1980 . ~lVest E ~u ro e R e o rt _ ~ ~ cFOUO ~ , ~~o~ . ~ _ ~BIS ~OREI~N BROADCAST INFORIO/!lATION SERVICE FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 I NOTE JPRS publications r.ontain information primarily from foreign newspapers, periodicals and books, but also from news agency transmissions and broadcasts. Materials from foreign-language sources are translated; those from English-language sources are transcribed or reprinted, with the original phrasing and other characteristics retained. - Headlines, editorial reports, and material enclosed in brackets are supplied by JPRS. 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COPYRIGHT LAWS AND REGULATIONS GOVERNING 04dNERSHIP OF MATERIALS REPRODUCED HEREIN REQUIRE THAT DISSEMiNATION aF THIS PUBLICATION BE RESTRICTED FOR OFFICIAL USE Oi~L,Y. APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL tiSE ONLY JPRS L/8967 - 7 March 1980 WEST EUROPE REPORT , (FOUO 11/80 ) CONTENTS PAGE COUNTRY SECTION FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY SPD's Bahr Interviewed on Soviet Intentions (Egon.Bahr Interview; QUICK, 21 Feb 80) 1 Correspondent Views Goals, Proble~s o~ Ostpolitik (Frane Barbieri; LA STAMPA, 5 Jan 80) 6 FRANCE Marchais' Support of Soviet Afghanistan Invasion Splits PCF (Irene Allier; LE NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR, 14-20 Jan 80) 11 Brief s Nuclear Weapon~ and Politics 16 PRC-France Intelligence Sharing 16 Rene Journiac Successor 16 Marchais Campaign 16 ' SDECE AssignmenCs 17 Arms for India} Pakistan 17 Oil Talks Foreseen 17 , ITALY _ Post-Tito Scenarios of Military Readiness (Luigi Barzini; CORRIERE DELIA SERA, 28 Jan 80) 18 Figures on Publi~ Deficit Reported ~ (Claudio Torneo; IL MiDNDO, 7 Dec 79) 21 - a - [III - WE - 150 FOUO] , . F0~ OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY _ CONTENTS (Continued) Page CISL Leader Reiterates Union Line (Walter Tobagi;'CORRIERE DELIA SERA, 28 Jan 80) 25 PCI's Macaluso on Allocations for the South (Emanuele Macaluso Interview; IL MONDO, 7 Dec 19) 27 - b - - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY . . . . . . r. ~ . ~ . . . A . . . . . . APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY COUNTRY SECTION FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY SPD'S BAIiR INTERVIEWED,ON SOVIET INTENTIONS - DW211337 Munich QUICK in German 21 Feb 80 pp 13-15 DW ' [Undated interview with SPD Federal Manager Egon Bahr by Aans Wagner in Bonn] [Text] QUICK: For roughly 8 weeks now Soviet troops have been occupying nonalined Afghanistan. Has thia caused you to change your asaeasment of the Soviet Un3on? Were you, too, as disappointed as was President Carter? - Bahr: The Soviet Union has committed an act there which cannot be tolerated. But I am not so terribly aur.prised that the Soviet Union indeed fills out a vacuum when there is a vacuum that ean be filled at no riak. QUICK: What do you mean by that? Bahr: To cite an example, what I mean is this: Angola firet called on the Americans for help and did not get it. Then Angola asked us for help, snd did not get it. Finally Neto called on the Swedes--to no avail. On1y then did hP approach ~he Soviet Union, and he found support there. The inffuence which the Soviet Union has ga3.ned lately in Angola and elsewhere ia not at all the result of Soviet g~nius but of Weetern mistakea. QUICK: Does this also hold true for Afghanistan? Bahr: Afghanistan has been part of the area of interest and influence of the Soviet Union for many decades. There is not the slightest doubt in my mind that the United States had observed how the Sov~.ets enormously enhanced their presence there since April 1978 and, particularly so, in the fall of ~ 1979. QUICK: Do you believe that following the Afghaniatan shock the United Statea will counteract diacernible Soviet intentione in the future earli~r and with more determination? Bahr: What I Iiope, above all, is tinat the c,ld miatakes will not be con- tinued, believing that everything can be done with arms, bel~eving that one can put one's stakes on th~ wrong people and having to prop up old, en- cru~ted,feudal regimea. The example of Iran ahows that it ia no* enough ~o support a man and to equip hia country wiCh arms. - _ ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY QUICK: Does this also apply to Pakistan? Bahr: I hope that the West will not have the same experience there, but everything I hear from and about tl-~at country makes me concerned. QUICK: Would you term the Soviet Union a peace-loving country? _ Bahr: This designation by Konrad Adenauer is valid even today. Th~e Soviet Union wants to avoid World War III. And we, too, have begun to conclude agreements which work and which have made Europe an oasis in which peace and etability prevail. QUICK: But has peace not become lesa safe for us, too, as a result of Afghanietan? Bahr: With growing tensions negative effects will result for Europe, yet I stand by what I said: Peace in Europe has become safer. This is the reault of 10 years of social-liberal foreign policy. Yet the European policy of detente cannot prevent new conflicts from emerging in other parts of the world. - QUICK: What do you think of an Olympic boycott? - Bahr: If it is intended to cause the Soviet Union to leave Afghanistan, then it will not work. If it is intended to be psychological and moral punishment before the world public, ita success will depend on how many countries will go to Moscow. At this atage of the game it will be very many. Besides, we hope for a development in which the Olympic games would be possible in Moscow without any trouble. This means that we must fully �~kilize the time left until 20 May. By that date the national Olympic com- mittees will decide finally whether they will go or not. Much can change before then. Therefore I am against any commitment prior to that date. _ QUICK: Do you fear that the Soviet Union in the near future might use Berlin again as an inatrument for bringing pressure to bear on the West as has happened before? Bahr: There are no indications of that to date, nor do I believe that this will happen. QUICK: The impression prevails as though the Europeans were currently making an all-out effort to avoid being dragged into the conflict of the two auperpowers. Do you also see this tendency? ' Bahr: I believe that for a long time the cohesion of the alliance has not been so strongly emphasized as it has been in the past aeveral days. On the other hand, it is, of coiirse, the European's own intereat to prevent the conflict from extending to Europe. And I t~elieve that this is also the American inLereat. 2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY QUICK: The Federal Republic, which is considered the most important ally of the United States, is currently being strikingly spared by the Soviet Union. Are the Russians working toward a special relationship with West Germany? l Bahr: No, I do not think so. The Soviet Union is interested in the etatus quo. It does not intend to shake the alliance aqetems of NATO and the Warsaw Pact, either. I believe that the Sovie*_a up to a certain degree also regard the Americans as the watchdog ineuring that the Europeans, and naturally the Germans, do not become too independent or do anything eilly. QUICK: You believe that the etatua quo is also in the German interest? Bahr: For 2~ yeara, between '1949 and 1969, we tried to change the aituation - in Europe. In that period the Soviet Union just grew stronger, and the GDR developed into a separate state. By means of detente policy we sought to make the situation at least more bearable to the people. I would not want to endanger this. ~ QUICK: But in the period of detente policy, too, the Soviet Union merely grew stronger. Do you really believe that the Ruasians are serious about what the West understands to be detente--has Moscow not outsmarted us? Bahr: I believe for several reasons that the Soviet Union ia serioua about detente. Notwithstanding all justified outrage over the action in Afghanis- tan we muat not fail to realize that since becoming equal in nuclear poten- tials the Soviet Union has always acted with great care and purposefully below the threshold of a dangeroue risk. ;DW211354) QUICK: But detente also means mitigating potentials. Do the Ruasiana really strive for that with regard to themselves or only with re- ' gard to the West? Bahr: We believe that detente calls for balance on as low a level as possi- ble. Moscow knows that this also applies to the Soviet Union. I am con- vinced of that snd therefore I am interested in SALT III being achieved in the near future. - QUICK: Moscow said that if NATO rlecided to close the arms gap there will - be no further negotiations. Bahr: The Soviet Union said it first like that. But today it formulates it differently. It says that the basis that existed prior to the decision does not exist anymore. So one must look for a new one. Negotiatione have not been rejected in this way. QUICK: Next to "detente policy" you created the formula "changes through rapprochement," which became one of the moat used terms of the ao-called new oetpolitik. What has become of it? 3 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 I FOR OFFICIAL USE O~Y Bahr: I formulated it 18 years ago as an interim phase leading to agreed- on reunification. Matters developed differently. Since 1964, the first 20-year friendship treaty between the Soviet Union and the GDR, a direct policy aimed at reunification in measurable phases is no more realistic, so that conaequently this term dieappeared into the pagee of the archives. - QUICK: The term reunification also seems to have disappeared. One doea not like to l:ear it in your party any more--what is your personal approach to it? Bahr: I do not like the term "re." It must bear the weight of the past 30 years. T3ut for me the problem that Germans, if they want to, live under the roof of one state, is the problem of probleme as long as I live. With one exception: Peace is more important. And therefore I am used to being considered a half insane person. QUICK: Why are you being considered insane? Bahr: Because some people say that this is unrealistic and that we have other problems, ranging from protection of the environment to the diffarence between the North and the South in the world. Maybe my opinion will really turn out to be unreal in 20 years. But I feel sa atrongly tied to my con- viction and the task of the constitution that I can take it in stride. , QUICK: Why is this--let us aimply call it unification policy--your subject? i Bahr: Because I was born a German, because I grew up as a German and be- cause I knew Germany when it was united. There is a rational consideration also: I believe that a great people in the center of Europe has the right ro self-determination, and that it would be good for unbreakable peace if what is called the German problem were solved some day. QUICK: Do you consider your prevailiag political work ae helpful for that aim? Bahr: Yes, because we will be able to talk about unification some day only if all neighbors are convinced that no danger will emanate ~ny more from the Germans. Detente policy is a prerequisite for that. QUICK: Do you consider your prevailing policy as preparatory unification policy? Bahr: That would be saying too ~uch. We ha`~e managed to carry out a small part of the many preparations and prerequisites. But we must continue to pursue peace policy in Europe so that our neighbors some day will find the idea of German unity tolerable. At the moment I see no neighbor, neither in the East nor the Weat, who would not get the creepa with regard to such - an idea. Th~ German problem unfortunately will not be on the international agenda for a long time. Other problema are more urgent and explosive. 4 F~JR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY QU ICK: The leftiats ranging from Peter Brandt to Martin Walser and adviser Guntram von Schenk of the SPD Bundestag faction seem to be discovering the nation now, although so far it belonged to the political field of the right- is ts. Is that some sort of a change in tendency? Bahr: I see it differently. The rightists are or were about to abandon the nation and sacrifice it to European integration. Actually there have always been SPD members who have warned against underrating that problem so that it would not get into the wrong hands. Today there really are - some young people among us who have discovered the national problem as some- - th ing for satisfying the Cas printed~ I consider it a pleasant development because a peo~le in the center of Europe simply cannot live without hiatory. QUICK: What does the German nation mean to you? Bahr: The unit in which these peo~le want to live. QUICK: Is that a value for you? Bahr: Yes, oh yes: QUICK: Finally--what is your prognosis with regard to the outcome of the Bundestag elections? Bahr: Franz Josef Strauss will not achieve as good a result as Helmut Kohl. - So the social-liberal coalition will be continued. I am convinced of that. QUICK: And you do not reckon with the-Greens? [Environment Protection _ Party) Bahr: In line with the increase of international tensions the voter will realize that these auxiliary troops desired by Strauss as a substitute for his fourth party cannot give an answer to these vital problems. Therefore, the Greens will not gain as many votes as they would have probably achieved prior to Afghanistan. QUICK: If no clear majority is achieved after the Bundestag elections, wou ld you consider a grand coalition feasible? Bahr: There will be no draw and therefore also no grand coalition. I can ~ imagine having a grand coalition only in times of emergency, and then :tt wou ld rather be an all-party government. In a normal eituation we ought to have a strong opposition. CSO : 3103 - 5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ' ' ~ COUNTRY SECTION FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY OORRE5PONDENT VIEWS GOAIS, PROBLEMS OF OSTPOLITIK Turin LA STAMPA in Italian 5 Jan 80 p 3 [Article by special correspondent F~ane Barbieris "A 'Nex Look' Ostpolitik"] [Text~ Is trie alternative to "Finlandization" applicable in Elirope? Schmidt xants to make Western policy vis-a-vis _ lbscox more flexible~ as Germany sees ita international influence groxing. Bonn believes that if the Europeans help the USSR solve i~s doaestic problema they xill in return obtain access to a nex market and to nex sources of rax aaterials. The chancellor is encountering reticence on the paxt of Bonn's allies, hoxever. Bonn--Bonn ia expanding rapidly--both horizontally and vertically--along the banks of the Rhine. The skyscrapers and futuristic structures of the nex Chancellery and ministries~ and the iaposing nerr buildings of the political parties and nexspapers~ have not yet succeeded in depriving "the largest village in Ger~aany" of its bucfllic atmosphere. As if it xere still perplexed and uncertain about i~s oxn future~ Bonn has not yet ~ecided to don the trappinas of an authentic capital of Germany~ never wishing to - forget Berlin. At the ~ame tiae, hoxever~ it aspires to be the political center of E~rope. Fearful o~ irritating allies and adversaries a'like, the various goverrwents in Bonn have almoat a.lKays had. to conceal their oxn aabitions. A German _ "leadership" Kould excrssively disturb the arrangement of the continent _ that Kas fashioned at Potsdam. The lack of a Western "leadership" (since the degree to which the Americans have lost control is such that they do . not knox hox to use the strength of their oKn muscles) has had the Affect~ however~ of assigning to Germany a role that quite gimply goes beyond even - t~he a~o~t secret anbitions of its governnent. Schmidt appears today to he the only head of governtaent who does not face ~ serious domestic financial difficulties. The "quotations" on the chancel- lor have accordingl.y behaved on the international scene in concart xith 6 FOR OFFICTAL U:i~ ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY _ the quotations on the mark. With the self-confidence of someone who alone among the xorld's lea.dera has devised a formula to control inflation xithout making his felloW citizens pay the price of the crisis~ Schmidt aspires to the role of arbiter even in the global politics of the super- poxers. Indeed, he is at one and the sa~e time a partisan uf the decision concerning the E~.iromiseiles and the most severe critic of the stupiditiea - - attributable to Washingtcn's leadership. Schmidt is responsible for the triumph of an accura~e--though seemingly paradoxical--syllogism: the fact that the E~Zromissiles facilitate ratifi- cation and continuation of the SALT negotiati~ns. Moscox has accused him of stren~thening the American military presence in E~rope; Wa.shingtdn has - reproached him for ta.king Soviet interests in Europe too mucti into consid- eration. It xould in fact appear that the Germar; chancellor has situated the role of his government somewhere in between these tWO critiques. One of his a.ssociates told me: "We feel that xe are today the trustees and ~uar~ntors of detente. The xeakness of the American lead.ership may well have its counterpart in ~:3.kness on the part of the Soviet leadership. A break betxeen Washington and Moscow xould give rise to events capable of jeopar- dizing the precarious equilitrrium of the Korld. Europe xould be the first _ to suffer the consequences~ and pay the price, of such an eventuality." Although the aforementioned official assured us that this does not consti- tute a nex orientation but rather an attempt to safeguard a"correct and consistent policy line" at a moment Khen the great "learierships" are vacillating, xe b~lieve xe are able to discern, in Bonn's designs, the ` , outlines of a new Gstpolitik. We are rather far fron a return to Brandt, xho is nox out of the picture xith a somexhat faded chaxisaia. This time it is Schaddt xho is refloating his version of the famous Ostpoli- ~ tik. He proceeds from a premise that in many respects ia antithetical to the preuise upheld by the White House, to xit: the West Will not be able to rescue itself from its oxn crisis by aggravating the crisis of th~ USSR. The thesi~ attributed to Brzezinski to the effect that it is necessaxy to ensnare Moscox in the xeaknesses of its ~conomy and in the dysfunction of its system is regarded here by authoritative Social ,Democratic spokesmen as "stupid." , We shall attempt ~o trace the outlines of Scr.aidt's nex Ostpolitik in the ~ light of the interpreta.tions ga,thereci in Bomi~ as folloxss The agproach being employed by the USSR on the Western Etiiropean scene--in a frenzied search for a xay out of its complex domestic problems--cannot be conti~.ined by erectin~ a nex obetacle betxeen the txo Etiaropea (an alternative all the more unacceptable to Germany in that the obstacle would dispel the mirage of rsunificg,tion). ~ ~ccount should 'be taken of the Soviet aifficulties xithout rejoicing over them, ina.sauch as Mosco~ apparently intends to seek a solution through , 7 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/48: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200064408-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY . ~ cooperation xith Eurupe. Only if MoscoW fails to find that solution could ~ the Soviet crisis g~nerate serious pressure on the continent. In the grip _ of its oxn crisis~ the USSR doeE not desire a deepening of the European crisis, and E~zrope ahould likexise not desire a similar fate for the U5SR. - On this basis--Bonn gays--E~rope ca.n assist the U5SR a.nd at the same tine _ assist itself by open�ing its doors to nex markets and nex sources of rax materials. - E1~rope should guarantee itself against the possibility of dis~quilibriwa in ` its relations Kith so mighty a partner by involving the United 5tates in the operation and by reta.ining the American military presence on the conti- nent. One high-ranking official of the government said to me: "The Soviet syatem is founderin~ and in danger of collapse. Unless it copes xith the q~estion of reforms, there wil; be an explosion of exasperation tt~at will ultimately spill over into E~rope. The West has every reason -to support the rsformisi~ point of viex~ xhi.ch is tha.t of Brezhnev." I attempted to determine xhether these supposed factors underlie the differ- ences between the behavior of the American Government and that of the European governments with r.espect to an entir.e series of questions. "But xhat differences axe you ta.lking about'?" a high-ranking official of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs asked me with an air of surgrise. I ` attempted to list thea~. E~'ope~ for example, has not implemented the - technological blockade against th~ USSR that Washington desired (and ha.s _ in fact attempted to fill, xith its oxn trade, the void thus left by the United Sta.tes); xith respect to playing the China. caxd," Bonn has disso- the at~:i- ciated itself from the American 'policy line; in the Middle East, tude of the E~ropeans is much more mulr.ifaceted than that of the Amer.icans; _ _ and as regaxds the Cuban situation a.nd the presence of the Castroites in Africa~ Washington's viexs do not coincide xith those of the Europeans. "All things considered," I ventured to say, "Bonn appears to be much more responsive and open vis-a-vis Moscok and its arguments than Wa.shington is." The official sought above all to define the "para.meters" within which German policy operates: membership in NATa and the EEC~ on the one ha.nd, - and the "irreplaceable" American military presence, as a"guarantee of atomic security." He assured me that Bonn's Ostpolitik does not trans~end this framework. In fact, he contended that there xere no substantive differences on any of the points I had enumerated. He conced.ed only that Germany "is not interested in playing the txo poxers--China and Russia--off against each other," but asserted that not even on this point could one speak ~n terms of a split betxeen America. and ~rope. In any case, because of their groximity Europe assigns a relatively greater iaportance to relations with the countries of the Soviet bloc. 8 FUR O~FICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPROVED F~R RELEASE: 2007102/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Secret Ags:�aements? A similax defensive tone is observable in tne statements of alraost all the lea,ding ~igureQ of thd government and ~he oartie$ of the coalition~ xho ~ - axe irritated by the ~uspicions currently voiced in London p,nd Pa.ris to the effect tha$ a pr~ferential relation~hip exists betxeen Moscox and Bonn. The story of Brezhnev's alle~ed secret proposal to Schmidt has also been �revived--a proposal in xhich 8rezhnev supposedly offered the reunification , of Ger~eany in retu~rn for German neutrality. "It's just a question of ' taking regular soundings," these officials explain. "In every delica,te situa.tion~ even our closest alli~s want to ascertain the preciae distance - betHeen Bonn and Moscox." Based on interpretations obta.ined in authoritative quarters, Schmidt's nex Ostpolitik xould appeax to be not a distinct a.nd separate policy line but an attempt to give overall Western policy a more flexible and axticulated orientation in respect to relatior.s rrith Moscox. In Bonn's opinion, the most recent aggra.vations on the world scene are attributable to the fact that the insecure Amer~.can lea.dership has found ` - its counterpast in an equa.lly insecure Soviet leadership, with each side suspicious and uncertain as to the intentions of the other. More tha.n ever before, E~rope (and in this context--at this moment--xhen one says Europe one is thinking primarily of Bonn) feels it has a voca,tion for the role of a~ediator and that it alone is capa,ble of halting the collapse of detente. This is the concept of Chancellor Schmidt~ xho wouid appear to be fully qualifiec~ to aspire to a position of "leadership" (a position nox vacant) ' in the West. Fully qua,lifizd, that is~ except for one thing: the fact that he is German. This is precisely the reason why the chancellor elicits ,uspicions and reservations even aanong Bonn's allies--suspicions and reser- vations xhich axe further aggravated by tY~e ambitions and proposals of the paxty to xhich he belongs. The SPD [Social Democratic Fa,rty of Germany] links the fate of the German nation to the fate of Europe as a whole. At ~ the same time, ho~ever~ xe have the xords of an authorita.tive spokesman of the` pas.~ty: "The history of the German na.tion xill coincide xith the history of socialism~ and vice versa." Compromise In the viex of the Social Democrats, the reunification of Germany coincides with the evolution of socialis~a. According to this theory, in a more relaxed internationa,l atmosphere even the Ea.stern regimes will adopt the course of democratic reforr+s. The countries best able to embaxk on this course ase the more developed and democratically oriented countries such as Czechoslovakia, Hungaxy, Poland and the GDR itself, which have profited from the relaxation of controls by Moscox--a Moscow no longer fearful for its oxn security. 9 , FOR OFFZCZAL L'SE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/48: CIA-RDP82-44850R000200064408-5 FOR OI'FICIAL USE ONLY A similar hypothesis xas the ba.sis for the controversial '�tour" that Wehner, - the SPD's presti~ious parlia~aentary floor leader, made of these countries, and also for his even more controversi.al statements. "The USSR," he said, "has no expansionist tendencies. Its cnly concern is its own security.... With the aim of concentrating its forces on the Chinese border, it xould be prepared to sacrifice the Warsax Pact if the West wauld renounce NATu.. Anticipating that the Western socialist parties will undergo a reformist evolution (af radical orientation), the SPD (or at least one of its main currents of thought) foresees a convergence, in the future~ of the tko reformed socialisms of Europe. For Germany~ this xould also mean natianal reunifica.tion. In this context, Wehner has also rehabilitated Ulbricht's - concept of "Germa.n socialism," xhich was outlaxed in the East with the advent of Honecker. In the evolutionary process of the txo socialisms--a process capa.ble of removing the barriers that divide Europe--the German social democrats are assigning a prominent role to the Eurocommunists. This is the explanation for the close relations (somewhat diminished of late) between the SPD and the PCI [Italian Communist Party~. A high-ranking representative of the Social Democratic Party told me: "We would look with favor upon paxticipation by the communists in the Italian Government. Their participa.tion xould not imperil the West, where the communists xill never be a~?redominant force; on the contrary, it xould set ir~ motion an importa.nt reformist process." I have found that the liberal Augstein, editor of DER SPIEGEL, holds the same viexs. The aim is to proceed from the domestic "historical conpromise" to a pan-European historical compromise--a utopistic expectation that far transcends the nex Ostpolitik of Schmidt. n pragmatist pa.r excellence kho xould rather deal xith the ~aark than xith Marx~ the chancellor probably keeps himself at a considerable distance from the ideologica.l illusions of his fellow party members. This does not save him~ hoxever~ from the criticism and attacks of the opposition. As it steels itself for the coming elections, the opposition is wondering: "Is it not possible that the chancellor's nex Ostpc:litik embodies the main features of Finlandization?" OOPYRIGHT: 1980 Fditr. LA STAMPA S.p.A. 10992 cso : 3104 io FOR GFI'] ~;IAL US~ O~ILY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY COUNTRY SECTION FRANCE _ MARCHAIS' SUPPORT OF SOVIET AFGHANISTAN INVASION SPLITS PCF Paris LE NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR in French 14-20 Jan 80 pp 20-21 [Article by Irene Allier: "Marchais: An Order From Moscow"] [TextJ So apparently nothing has happened in Afghanistan. The name of the country where 80,000 Soviet soldiers are at present being deployed is not even mentioned in the final communique published Thursday evening at the close of Georges Marchais' visit with Leonid Brezhnev--even though on Friday _ the PCF's [French Communist Party] secretary general on French television went at length into the arguments put forward by Moscow to justify its inter- vention,without the least trace of criticism. In the off.icial text the two parties merely dwelt, but exclusively with reference to imperialism, on the necessity of "respecting the principles of sovereignty..., independence and noninterference in the affairs of other countries." At that cost, the spec- - taculat reconciliation between Georges Marchais and the Soviet leaders went off very well. For them, hasn't the invasion of Afghanistan meant only an "incident on the way," as Michel Debre said 12 years ago? On 22 August 1968: The PCF secretary general returned to Paris dumbfounded, called together the political bureau on an emergency basis and had it publicly condemn the entry into Prague by Warsaw Pact troops which had taken place the day before. On 4 January 1980: The PCF secretary general calmly returned from a"presidential" trip to Cuba. A week ago Soviet troops penetrated into Afghanistan and the political bureau finally met. But this time it was "to understand" a fait accompli. It would be impossible to rally a majority to "censure" the military intervention as Waldeck Rochet was able to do in 1968. All the same nothing indicates that Georges Marchais tried to rally one. It was~ a feat of another kind that the political bureau managed to achieve: Re- conciling the irreconcilable, it succeeded in championing the PCF's indefect- ible attachment to the principle of noninterference and at the same time the right of any country to seek aid from an allied country so as "to stand up to foreign intervention." Georges Marchais had no intention of compromising his trip to Moscow. For he was leaving for Moscow as head of a party delegation. That apparently had the highest priority. And first he was to make a detour to Rome. "He wanted the blessing of the pope and that of Satan (of Berlinguer and Brezhnev)," a bitter militant explained. "He did not get that of the pope." But in his eyes the other was far more important. 11 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONI.Y Georges Marchais in the USSIt, that was an event. It had been over 5 years . since he had gone there, to~~be exact not since July 1974. It had been ages since he had the benefit of thoae holidays on the shorea of the Black Sea wh~ch the Soviet leaders generously give the leaders of fraternal parties; he even refused to attend in person the CPSU's [Communist Party of the Soviet a Union] congresses. Finally, in Paris he sometimes deliberately avoided ~ meeting Soviet leaders on official viaits. The fact is that despite his prudence, his reticence and the weight of his pro-Soviet lobby, Marchais for a long time believed in the virtues of Eurocommunism. In 1976 at the East Berlin conference which brought together all of the European communist par- ties (from east and west), he--along with Berlinguer--was the pioneer of insubordination with respect to the USSR. Thanks to him "proletarian inter- nationalisn,"which for so long meant unconditional salidarity to the "father- land of socialism, had been cast aside for the benefit of an "international solidarity" without any real substance nor any heavy obligat.ions. Finally, in 1978 KOMMUNIST, the CPSU Central Committee's review, profited by the pub- lishing of and publicity given by the PCF to a critical work: "1'URSS et - nous," to denounce the anti-Sovietism of certain French communists. In short, until it rediscovered on the occasion of its 23rd Congress the "over-all positive balance sheet" of Soviet-style social~sm, it could have been thought that the PCF found in Eurocommunism the way and reasons for a loosening of its original ties with Moscow. . China's Shadow But Eurocommunism had as its natural complement the union of the communist - parties of France and Europe with the noncommunist parties. To the extenC that the PCF has given up this alliance policy, for it Eurocommunism is no longer on the agenda, whatever Marchais may say about it. At the same time, its bonds with the USSR are being tightened. In fact, the PCF is the only French political group which cannot dispense with fitting its activities in- to an international whole serving as a guarantee of its revolutionary will. The PCF is an integral part o.f the international communist movement. Now, ever since the latter has had two poles, the USSR and China (in Asia, Sino- Soviet rivalry has to all intents and purposes replaced Soviet-American rivalry), the PCF has made its choice. "Seeing two countries that claim kinship with socialism fighting against each other in every sphere, that makes us bleed all over," an ill-resigned old militant sighed. Bleeding or not, the CPF leadership opted deliberately for the Soviet camp. "We could have said 'no' on Kabul," a party cadre admitted. "But we had al- ready said 'no' on Cambodia when Vietnam backed by the USSR invaded it. And yet we had published a book to the glory of Pol Pot:" � So, behind Cambodia, behind Afghanistan, appears China's shadow in profile. But it is not the only one. The PCF's political concerns are not exclusive- ly planetary. The trip to Moscow also responded to other motives, motives 12 FOR ~)EE'i~:.CAL US~ O~JLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL L'SE ONLY of an internal order and even out-and-out electoral ones. First of all political, the surprising thesis spread toda~ by those who had ac~epted only with a sinking heart the strategy of union of the Left, that the PCF's electoral erosion is allegedly attri~utable to its drawing away from the USSR, to the dissolution of its revolutionary identity. But above all there is the electoral campaign of the future communist candidate in the 1981 presidential elections, Georges Marchais. For several months he has been undertaking a series of international trips which, he hopes, will give the world the image of him as a distinguished statesman. He has visited Yugoslavia, Algeria, Poland, Cuba, Nicaragua, he has met Yasser Arafat, the Polisario Front; other long rounds of visits are planned in Africa, Benin, Angola. There would still be the United States and the USSR. The PCF is endeavoring to have Marchais invited by an American university. A Soviet trip therefore had to be arranged at the same time. A Serious Split It had been planned for a long time, before Afghanistan became a current event. It was to have taken place in November 1979, an ideal time according to the PCF's thinking people, not too close to the time of the 1981 elections (in such a way as not to allow the adversary to exploit dangerously what Jean Elleinstein already calls a voyage "to Canossa"), nor too far off as to recapture in time the segment or militant opinion eager to see on television and on L'HUMANITE's front page the accolades, the simultaneous embraces and smiles of a Brezhnev reconciled with Marchais. Especially since it could be hoped that once the reconciliation took place the USSR would know how to re- frain from showing its preference for the "bourgeoisie's candidate" as it did in 1974 by sending its ambassador to Giscard right in the middle of the electoral campaign. This point was no doubt an integral part of the long negotiations that ended in the drafting of the joint text Brezhnev and his guest made public Thursday evening. It took no less than two French delegations to the USSR since October, an article by Gaston Plissonnier, guardian of the pro-Soviet flame, attacking the French socialists... in PRAVDA a visit to Paris by Vadim Zagladin, the member of the Soviet Central~Committee in charge of relations with the PCF, to attain an agreement. The USSR recognized the right of communist parties to take new paths towards socialism. Afghanistan arose to disturb fleetingly the timing of the ceremonies; in the communist leadership's view it could not in any case attenuate the: presidential necessity of the secre- tary general's trip. Nor the date set for it so laboriously... Of course this conjunction of events ran the risk of isolating the PCF a little more from its European "brothers." Spain's Communist Party has condemned the Soviet operatior,, the Italiar. Communist Party has condemned it, Yugoslavia has condemned it, without even mentioning the Iranian revolution which has also condemned it. It can't be helped: Nothing could stand in the way of the Brezhnev-Marchais reconciliation. As for what comes next, that remains to be seen. The political bureau, furthermore, left a door half-open when it declared its desire that tt.~e Afghan people ensure their "march towards progress peacefully and with frlll sovereignty." 13 FOR OX r ~.L 1:1L USE OM.Y APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY However, it may be feared according to some of the party's Cassandras that a significant aggravation of ireternational tension might incite the PCF ~ leadership to sacri~ice everything to the Soviet camp and in particular tiie famous "divergences" on human freedoms and riuhts it had assumed for a f~w _ years. The fact is that Jean Kanapa is dead. The PCF's "minister of foreign affairs," he managed to hold the two ends of the chain together and make a synthesia of what was owed the USSR in the name of "interr.ational solidarity" and what was owed the PCF's necessary independence and the dPmands of demo- cracy. We cannot agree to the Soviet Army ruling as a master in Kabul, waging a war against "Moslem rebels" kilometers from the Soviet Union's territory. We cannot agree to the USSR behaving like a great power defending its in- terests just like American imperialism... The Soviet troops must leave Afghanistan..." There were 45 communists who signed that text. Forty-five who protested openly. That isn't very many; but those who silently disap- prove are infinitely more numerous. Among the usual signatures one notes the new names of leaders still hesitant a short time ago: Adler, the his- torian, for example, one of the authors of "~1'URSS et nous," the communist mayor of Sevres, Roger Fajnzylber. A warning shot at the leadership. But the latter feigns to be unaware that the party today is no longer closing its ranks behind it. However, even the editorial staff of L'HUMANITE is divided into virtuaily even parts between those who approve and those who do not ap- prove the Afghan operation. An even more clear-cut rift in the CGT [General Confederation of Labor] where a serious split occurred over a text that was nevertheless more specific than that of the political buresu: A straight out reminder of the principle of nonint~rvention accepted by everyone, including by Seguy and Krazucki. If 16 members of the executive committee, among them two communists, refused to take a vote on it, it was not because they found it too difficult, but on the contrary because it did not explicitly condemn Soviet intervention. The Afghan affairs is obviously not of the kind to be helpful to this remo- bilizing of the party which the leadership for 2 years now has been vainly seeking. The success of the "lOQ's petition," which in less than a week has become that of the "1,000," proves it. It demands union at the base, union of the forces of the Left in the struggle against "general staff stra- tegies." A number of communists signed it, this time its impact went beyond the small circle of "critical" intellectuals. The bulk of the party, of course, is not revolting against the 1978 rupture and its consequences; but it is obviously not approving. "The time has passed when a communist militant obeyed implicitly," a vigilant observer of the internal evolution noted. Henceforth the communists follow along only if they agree to discuss party policy with them." Since they do not discuss it, the militants are quietly drawing away on tiptoe: An ex- ample? In the central committee's framework of life committee headed by Mireille Bertrand there is no longer anyone except the standing members. The specialists who just a short time ago were participating in the Grenoble 14 . FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE OPILY cUlloquy on urbanism? They have 3isappeared. A number of ce11s (40 percent in the Paris area, according to a study for internal use revealed by LE CANARD ENCHAINE, have not met for 3 months. To explain themselves, some militants are addressing the bo~irgeois press "because of the nonfunctioning of their cells." "Mine has not convoked me for 8 montha," one of them said. In short, a small number of the party is protesting, the bulk of it is play- ing dead. An irrefutable test: Dues come in slowly or not at all. Five - or six stamps a year are paid on the average, to the point that this failure to get money is affecting the budget of the party which is specifically seeking to build up the war chest of its candidate for *he presidency of the Republic. Inhibited, paralyzed, inert, the militants suspect fighting among the lead- ers at the top of their party all of whose ups and downs they do not manage to follow. They only perceive signs of it in the labored compromises drawn up by the political bureau and in the cryptic exegeses of them which spokes- man Pierre Juquin supplies: "We have no need to approve or disapprove (the Afghan issue), but rather to understand it." Some see the triumphant label of Roland Leroy and the success of the protracted patience of Gaston Plissonnier, symbol of the party's continuing existence through its changes, in Marchais' haste to rediscover the fraternal embraces of the past. And they are waiting for the clock to turn back... No Debate in L'HUMANITE But it is of course on a party in very poor form that the Afghan operation fell. "You forget that the Fiszbin-Gajer affair is continuing to effect ravages, perhaps even worse ones," some Parisian communists are saying. In fact it is no doubt easier for a communist at the base to agree from afar to the USSR defending its great power interests as it chooses to seeing himself shamelessly deceived by his own leadership. On 7 January Henri Fiszbin at- tempted to take advantage of the open forum in L'HUMANITE on the occasion of the impending national council meeting devoted to the intellectuals to ex- poae in discreet terms but publicly the conflict setting him against his hierarchy. Were they finally going to open the debate in L'HUMANITE? No - indeed. As an exceptional action, the committee in charge of organizing the discussion immediately intervened to close it "administratively." Who would dare answer back to statements in speeches by Georges Marchais pre- sented as so much evidence: Captain of a ship tossed about by the ground swell on which one meets as many individuals nostalgic over the taking of the Winter Palace as those desirous of a reformism without drama, Marchais appears to be abandoned to ill winds that run the risk of blowing him far from his point of balance. The spectacle of Moscow's resumed meetings allows predicting that it will be for a long time. COPYRIGHT: 1980 "le Nouvel Observateur" 8094 CSO: 3100 15 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY .i APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY COUNTRY SE~CTION FRANCE BRIEFS NUCLEAR WF.APONS AND POLITICS--It is rare that a defense meeting becomes the subject of widespread publicity. Said meeting, headed by the President, brings together top-level defense officials. The 7 February meeting re- ceived big play in the press even though all the "options " announced (arma- ment of the sixth nuclear submarine, cruise missiles and mobile missiles) were already known. The final decision will only be made in April after debate in Parliament. The reason? It appears that the President, warned that defense will be one of Chirac's main themes on the 12th, hopes to deny him the use of this "exclusive" bit of information during this time of international tension. [Text] [Paris VALEURS ACTUELLES in French 11 Feb 80 p 15] , PRC-FRANCE INTELLIGENCE SHARING--Alexandre de Marenches, chief of the SDECE, may meet witt~ top officials of the PRC intelligence services during his unofficial stay in Beijing. PRC intelligence services are currently pro- viding more and more information to their Western counterparts about Soviet activities, particularly with respect to Africa. [Text] [Paris VALEURS ACTUELLES in French 11 Feb 80 p 15] RENE JOURNIAC SUCCESSOR--Guy Georgy, 61, one of the French diplomats most familiar with Africa (he has devoted practically his whole career to it except for a 3-year tour in the French Emhassy in Bolivia), will probably succeed [the lateJ Rene Journiac. [Text] [Paris LA LETTRE DE L'EXPANSION in French 11 Feb 80 p 6] MARCHAIS CAMPAIGN--[PCF Secretary General] Georges Marchais will head up an extensive P~ campaign against the neutron bomb [in France]. [Text] [Paris LA LETTRE DE L'EXPANSION in French 11 FPb 80 p 3] 16 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL iJSE ONLY + SDECE ASSIGNMENPS--SDECE chief de Marenches has sent two colonels on de- tached duty, one to Saudi Arabia and one to Tunisia. De Marenches appuinted a subversion expert, Colonel G., to work with King Khaled, whose throne was shaken by the Mecca hostage affair; and the successor to Colonel de Marolles in the SDECE "Action" service, Colonel B., was appointed to go help the Tunisian Government defend itself against Libya's machinations. [Text] [Paris VALEURS ACTUELLES in French 18 Feb 80 p 16] ~ ARMS FOR INDIA, PAKISTAN--:'ronce is supplying arms to both India and Pakistan, the Indian subcontinent rivals. Thanks to a loan from Japan, Pakistan hopes to purchase 300 AMX-10 light armored vehicles and 500 ANI}C-30 medium tankso On the occasion of the [French] chief of state's trip, India let it be known that it would like to obta.in some Matra, Exocet and Milan missiles; some Dauphin helicopters and some AMX-30 tanks. [Text] [Paris VALEURS ACTUELLES in French 18 Feb 80 p 16] OIL TALKS FORESEEN--[President] Giscard will talk oil with [Jordan's King] Husayn when he visits Jordan next month. Large oil deposits have recently been discovered in the northeastern part of the kingdom and a French company _ may participate in their exploitation. [Text] [Paris VALEURS ACTUELLES in French 18 Feb 80 p 16] CSO: 3100 ~ 17 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 a FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ COUNTRY SECTION ITALX r~�~T-TITO SCENARIOS OF MILITARY READINESS Milan CORRIERE DEL1,A SERA in Italian 28 Jan 80 pp 1, 2 [Article by Luigi Barzini: "If We Had To Think of Defending"] . [Text] For days and days after the report of Tito's illness, Bastiani Fortress ha.s been in a state of alert and, even now, everything has not become normal. In Dina Buzzati's opinion, Bastiani Fortress was this newspaper's major editorial table when we were unknown youngsters and were waiting from hour to hour for some extraordinary event to occur which would have changed our - lives. For our army officers Bastiani Fertress is now that brief stretch of our eastern border where the bulk of our defense is concentrated and where, scanning the horizon, we have been awaiting (fortunately in vain) the arrival of the Tartars for 30 years. As is well-known, the Alpine arc defends the Po lowlands from the coast to a point north of Gorizia. There the mountains drop off and leave a rather ~road, less inaccessible passage free, called by tYie NATO military "Lubiana Gap" or "Lubiana Corridor." It is the easiest entrance of an~ invader into ' the Po Valley, the natural route for numerous barbaric tribes in the early Middle Ages. Therefore, it is the sector of the NATO defense entrusted exclusively to our armies both because we know it perfectly well (part of the territory was Italy; World War I was partially fought in those areas; we have accurate topographical maps of those places) and because it is presumed that our army (like all others, moreover) would give the beat results defending its own land. On paper we are ready for everything. We have available for immediate deployment in that sector: three mechanized divisions, one tank division, a few Alpine brigades, one airborne brigade, one missile bri~ade and various anti~ircraft and logistical forces. Ready for what? In former general- staff studies we calmly prepare.d to confront the armed forces of a single country, tha~ bordering ours. However, we must now face up to a whole range of uncertain hypotheses on our eastern border. If Tito (may God let him live a long time) should die, it is probable that Yugoslavia (constr.ained by the armed forces, the Internal Security Service and the ;~arty) would 18 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 I FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY preserve its unity and continue its policy of a nonalined country; or else, it may be divided among two or more factions, one part of which, or maybe all, could become alined with the Warsaw Pact. In that case, we would have to face Soviet tank divisions lined up on the outskirts of Trieste. In case of invasion, we would find ourselves lacking even that advance notice of a few days which would enable us to arrange our defense more effectively. The various hypotheses do not all carry the same weight. Among other things, the experts take it for granted that, after Tito's death, Russian political and military pressure could be stepped up without necessarily resulting in an invasion. It is hoped that, after the occupation of Afghanistan, repercus5ions throughout the Western and Islamic world would - make the Soviet General Staff more cautious. The task assigned to Italy in the worst (and perhaps less probable) case, that is, a direct Soviet attack on our border, is extremely delicate but limited. We would have to stave off an invasion for whatever time is necessary to permit reinforcements to arrive from the interior and almost certainly from abroad. When will these reinforcements arrive? No one knows. Among the foreigners on the spot there is only a modest U.S. symbolic unit and various services. The provisions of the Atlantic Pact are vague; eact+ natioi~ must decide how and when it will come to the aid of an ally being attacked. Moreover, the need to prevent Italy's fall at any cost is so obvious that we can count on the relatively rapid arrival of NATO contingents and supplies. For what interests the others is not to save the "cradle of civilization" or the "mother of the arts" but the peninsula itself, the quay projecting into the Mediterranean, which controls the maritime communication routes between Gibraltar and the Dardanelles. To the east of Italy are Egypt, the Suez, Israel, Greece, Turkey and valuable sources of raw materials and fuels. Are our armed forces up to their task? Undoubtedly, our armament, although insufficient, is extremely modern and adequate. Antitank and antiaircraft weapons are particularly lacking. However, it is difficult to evaluate the morale of inen and their training (as is known, the most perfect tank is worth only as much as the men inside). As always, it is impossible to predict how our units would perform in combat. Italians perform their best (~n war and in peace) in desperate situations and under the eyes of foreigners, for they reveal unsuspected virtues and resources and turn out to be astonishing heroes (this is wh~t we commonly call "the big star"). However, we cannot expect the heroism of a few to be the salvation of the entire country. The armed forces have been neglected for decades. The ministers of def ense, who have come one after another (with one or two exceptions), can be categorized from mediocre to extremely bad. We spend proportionately much lower sums than all our allies (about half those of the Germans and English). Moreover, every year inflation decreases the true amount of the allocations to a worrisome degree, to the extent that, with the same funds, we must equip increasingiy smaller units from year to year. The 12-month term of military service is inadequate to train men in the use of increasingly 19 - FGR OFFICIAL iJSE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY complicated, delicate and costly machiaery (one tank costs more than SGO million lire). Lastly, limited available equipn.ent does not permit adequate training. One tank may fire 15 shots in a year., insufficient to train a gunner. The remuneration of officers and noncommissioned officers is not sufficient to maintain the standard of living conditions necessary to attract capable men and take them out of civilian life. There are also serious difficulties in recruiting the personnel necessary to maintain the enuipment. : As is well-known, wages in Italy are never proportionate to the usefulness of the services for the common welfare, on~y rarely reward performance which is essential and vital for the nation, but reward almost exclusively the ability to alarm the government with strikes (as seen recently in the case of flight controllers). In return, the recruits of the last few years have been different from those of a few years ago: they are young, relatively more serious, willing, capable and well-behaved. In the end, it is difficult to predict the influence of parties closer to the ideals proclai.med by the Warsaw Pact on the morale of a large part of the youth at the moment of hostilities. ' We have spoken only of conventional weapons for a war which would use the most modern weaponry except for nuclear weapons. The reason is that a ~ decision to use the latter as a first resort is so fr.aught with mortal danger in the present state of affairs (it would open the way to reprisals and counterreprisals in increasing degrees, probably unti~ there is total destruction of the belligerent powers and a large part of the industrialized world), that it is doubtful that it will ever be launched unless as a last desperate gesture, the gesture of Samson, by a power about to be annihilated and, perhaps, not even then. Their real value is the a~ocalyptic threat they represent, and which exists, filling the warehouses and storage bins with missile warheads. COPYRIGHT: 198.0 Editoriale del "Corriere della Sera" s.a.s. 8568 CSO: 3104 20 FOR OFFICrAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 rvn Vrr tl.lAL UJr; UNLY ~ i COTJNTRY SECTION ITALY FIGURES ON PUBLIC DEFICIT REPORTED Milan IL MONDO in Italian 7 Dec 79 pp 8-9 [Article by Claudio Torneo: "Miracle in Rome'~~ [Text~ When they made their first calculations during the last few days the treasury ministry and state accountancy experts did not believe their eyes. And to avoid errors they decided to recheck, item by item, the receipts and the expenditures of the stare and other agencies whose accounts are included in the expanded public sector budget (state, state agencies, local agencies, railroads, postal service, and ENEL [National Electric Agency]). . The report supplement, which will delay until mid-December the submission of the quarterly treasury report in the parliament (the date prescribed by law is 30 November) has confirmed the initial impression: in 1979, for the first time in many years, the public deficit wi11 be below expectations. ~he 36 trillion which several months ago was still considered rock bottom, will not be reached. The expenditure estimate for the expanded public sector (i.e., the money that the state borrows to meet the deficit) will hardly exceed 33 trillion and according to the most optimistic it could even stop at 31 trillion. It is a distinct improvement over 1978: the deficit is lower not only in real terms, that is, in comparison with national income, but also in absolute amount (the deficit last year was 33.8 million). The surprise is even greater because with the sole exception of the Prometeia Bologna Forecasting Center and the CEPEC,the Studies Center of the PSI [Italian Socialist Party], the government, the Bank of Italy, and the majority of the experts were convinced that 1979 had been a particularly difficult year for public finance. The Pandolfi document preparatory for the plan had even hypothesized that the spontaneous deficit would 3ump to 43.1 billion in 1979. And in order to squeeze the requirement to 36 trillion, the money bill had anticipated a drastic set of ineasures which, between cuts and the recovery of tax evasion, were to lead to savings to 6.5 billion. Not all of the provisions of the money bill have been actually put into - effect (for example, the disability pension reform has not been passed by 21 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOP. OFFICIAL USE ONLY the parliament, and of the 3.35 billion in deposits of local agencies in banks, only 1.5 billion have come back into the treasury coffers). Never- theless, the meas~sres to hold down the deficit have succeeded beyond any rosy expectation. How has it bee~i possible? The initial answers that can be gotten from the experts are still cautions and guarded. Some guess that the initial deficit predictions may have been overes~imated, but most prefer to emphasize a series of accidental and in many cases nonrecurring events that may have unexpectedly improved the public balance-sheet. Whatever the explanation, the fact is that with both receipts and expendi- tures many things have changed. Receipts. This is the item where the surprises are chiefly concentrated. Tax revenue has increased much more than expected. Between direct and indirect taxes, at the end of the yaar receipts will amount to at least 50.5 trillion, perhaps 51 trillion. This is an increase of 3 trillion over initial estimates. It remains to be determined where the boom in receipts has been especially due to inflation that has swollen the tax base and driven the rates ever higher. But even the fight against tax evasion has not been entirely devoid of results: probably about 1 trillion have been recovered, mainly due to the greater revenue from the IVA [value-added tax] and the ILOR. Just as conspicuous has been the jump in receipts from the INPS [National Social Security Institute]. Many businesses which at first evaded part of the social security contributions, have begun to submit more truthful reports since the legislators have required that the tax code be included on the payment forms. ~he fight against tax evasion will bring the INPS at least ~..2 to 1.3 billion more in receipts, but there are those who maintain it will ba even more. E.A-penditures. The expenditure picture is more difficult to interpret. The relative restraint that ,:he analysis of the most recent figures has brought to light is due mainly to the stagnation of public investments and to the failure to pass the law that increases allocations for state participations (more than 3 trillion are involved). But something must not have functioned in the same way in the initial estimates of expenditures. Af ter the increases granted by the government to government employees, who in the course of a few months have obtained first the 1976-78 contract settlement and then a bonus of some 250,000 lire each, the final balance for current expenditures should actually have been increased by at least 1 trillion. However, this was not so; evidently the greater outlay was compensated for by compressiona of other items. But what effect will the favorable public expenditures picture have on the deficit for next year? Will the deficit for 1980, expected to be 40 trillion, be positively influenced by it? These questions have remained unanswered, at least for now. Among the economists and the politicians, no one is inclined to co~it himself until all the statistical details have been . 22 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02108: CIA-RDP82-00850R004200060048-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY released. "In theory," a government expert told IL MONDO, "it is possible that the deficit may go from 40 to 43 trillion because the expenditures that have not been made this year will devolve upon the 1980 balance; h~wever, it is also poasible that the 40 trillion will drop to 38 or 39 ~ trillion." Everything depends upon the basis on which the predictions for these years were made: "If the initial eatimatE was correct, there is no ~ reason to deceive ourselves; if, on the other hand, it was tao high, now - we can be a little less pessimistic." In any case, in the light of tY?e most rece,-~t developments on the deficit, and thc~ many controversies that there have been about it during the last few weeks, the government and the PRI [Italian Republican Party] appear dest destined to retrench. In a document sent to Council President Francesco Cossiga, the republicans have accused the government of straying from the straight road indicated by the Pandolfi plan and of causing inflation to escalate with their lively financial pol3.cy. The government has responded in kind, maintaining that the deficit is under control and that in any case _ it is increasing at a much slower pace than the Pandolfi plan predictions. "I do not want to stir up controversy again," Mario Baldassarri, Cossiga's economic adviser, told IL MONDO, "but it appears to me that the latest figures show that there is, at least under conditions in Italy, an automatic and direct relation between public deficit and inflation rate." If this relation exists, how is it, Baldassarri wonders, "that in 1979 we had a higher inflation in the face of a public deficit that in absolute figures is below that of 197d?" Public Deficit According T~ Prediction and Reality Y/~~y ifi 1 ~ T~nd~~m T~nd~n~ ~13.100 ~ 06i~ 43.100 3 ~Ghi~vo ' � 38.OOp ' ' 34.730 � . ~ ^ Key: Key: � 1. Pandolfi Document 31 Aug 1978 1. Pandolfi Plan 15 Jan 79 ~ 2. Tendency 43,100 2. Tendency 43,100 ! 3. Objective 36,000 3. Objective 34,730 4. In billions of lire 23 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ R~LAZI NFiD G T~~RE . TESOqO; 1 ~ ~ y I ~ rl)~'''~~~~~i~, ~~~c;~: ~ :~~PI� ~ s;.+',. i, ~ ~ i ,r ` ~ , ~~m~ ~ � di ~lu~no ' 6.000 ~ di ottob~~ .~c;. , i,~. . � 31/33. ~ 000 . ~ ~ U ;g 1 ~~y ~ Key: 1. Comparison of Treasury Cash 1979 ~ 2. June estimate 36,000 3. October projection 31/33,000 COPYRIGHT: IL MONDO 1979 7428 CSO: 3104 24 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY _1 COUNTRY SECTION ITALY CISL LEADER REITEkATES UNION LINE Mi1an CORRIERE DELLA SERA in Italian 28 Jan 80 p 2 [Article by Walter Tobagi: "A Union Bothersome to All Parties"] [Text] At a time of second thoughts about Italian unionism, CISL [Italian Confederation of Labor Unions] has decided once more to follow the path of attack. Here is the gist of the organizational assembly which the Second Italian Confederation (3 million members) finished up in Rome Saturday. It was an assembly which served to deliberate on objectives and procedures for union action and to strengthen the leadership of Pierre Carniti, CISL's first secretary, who does not have the DC's [Christian Democratic Party] card in his pocket. CISL's "anomaly" i.s explainable, first of all, by the following fact: in the history of all postwar Italian unions, this is the first time that a man not enrolled in any party has become a secretary. A person who, as Carniti d+d the other day, can vindicate the union's autonomy in almost brutal terms: "A union is autonomous when it is uncomfortable for all parties which count." Translated in terms of policy, this means that CISL declares itself favorable to a government of solidarity including the communists; at the same time, it maintains that, with regard to that possible government, the union should maintain the same ind~pendence and aggressiveness against any "social peace" which it has shown in past arrangements without the PCI. Therefore, CSIL's strong point is still the "specific nature" of union action seen as an essential element in the correct operation of the system: dialectics are an instrument of progress. The union exists inasmuch as it is autonomous and succeeds in expressing the demands of the labor world. From this logic comes the principle of incompatibility, giving the impression that trade-unionists cannot handle certain political assignments. CISL members consider this principle more sound than the Gospel. In fact, 30 years after its birth, CISL gives the impression of having f inally come up with a clear enough image based on the binomial "autonomy plus bargaining." We are quite far from the confederation first headed by 25 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Giulio Pastore and then by Bruno Storti which, in the 1950's, found ita first raison-de'etre i:? a connection with the Catholic and DC world. And ~.t seems that everyone has forgotten the clashes of the 1970's between the left headed by the industrial workers (first of all, Macario's and Carniti's metalworkera) and the moderate wing closer to the DC. After Marcario's resignation, elected Christian Democratic senator last year, Carniti choae Bruno Marini, leader of the pro-DC wing, as assistant secretary. Thus, the organizational assembly of Rome marks the c.r.*~solidation of the - leadership group of the "new CISL." And it makes evident the interweaving of values which this union is trying to express. The values of the best Catholic tradition, for which we speak of the "centrality of man." The values of industrialism and the bargaining system, which CISL's training schools have be:~n teaching for more than 20 years with constant reference to the mature experience of more developed countri~s, beginning with the United States. With this perspective in mind, it is onl~~ too obvious that CISL ha~s every reason to recall its roots, firmly cast in the Western tradition. And Carniti deplores the glamorous influence which "true socialisms" exert on - still sizable groups of workers, who do not succeed in grasping the nature of the Soviet system, "oppressive internally and violent externally." For the CISL leaders, being Western does not mean accepting the norms of moderatism. On the contrary. Recourse to the experiences of advanced industrial societies implies a firm and effective use of the bargaining system. A type of bargaining which answers the needs of the workers, certainly not foreign political logic. And along tizis line, not by accident, we have the union proposals which emerged at the Rome meeting. Automatic ~ay increases are defended in an uncompromising manner, because they are the safeguard of the less privileged. But, at the same time, a willingness is expressed to increase productivity and permit a new accumulation of capital, essential to create new ,jobs in the South. A substantial realism peeps out behind the ritual formulas. This is also expressed in the bargaining of an increasing, almost schizophrenic, separation between the union leaders, who draw up the major political strategies, and the vast majority of the workers. It is important that the initial report of Mario Colombo, one of the confederate secretaries, attacked these problems shamelessly. Acknowledging one's infirmity is the first step toward a cure. CISL's model drastically rejects any "union centralism." And it demands room for total autonomy and the bargaining right for wor~Cers. There is no doubt that it is a profoundly democratic model. But it is also a model which does not go along with the aspirations of those who would like to restore the Italian economy by reducing the autonomous and reciprocating power of the unions. COPYRIGHT: 1980 T:ditoriale del "Corriere della Sera" s.a.s. 8568 CSO: 3104 26 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - COUNTRY SECTION, ITALY PCI'S MACAL"JSO ON ALLOCATIONS FOR THE SOUTH Milan IL MONDO in Italian 7 Dec 79 p 18 [Interview with Emanuele Macaluso of the PCI, by Bruna Bellonzi: "This Fund Should Be Thrown Out"~ [TextJ The attacka are raining from all sides. In recent days it has been the southern entrepreneurs, who, at a meeting of Confidustria's committee for the Mezzogiorno [General Confederation of Italian Industry], criticized the operation of the Fund and proposed radical changes in it. Today the PCI takes to the field and asks in this interview with the man in charge of the southern section of the central committee, Emanuele Macaluso, about dissolving it. On the Fund for Southern Italy, in short, the con- troversy does not stop. On the contrary, the additional 4 trillion provided by the money bill for 1980 (IL MONDO No 45) has aroused still more criticism. Question: Have you reached the conclusion that the Fund has been closed down and that special support measures in the South have had their day? Answer: Support, no, but the system and the tools of this support, to be sure. Law 183 for the South, passed in 1976, was an attempt to tie the South's takeoff to national and regional planning sustained by the additional support funds. But the experience of these last 3 years has shown two things clearly: first, that there has been and there still is within the government forces themselves bitter resistance to planning, and second, that the Fund is not a tool capable of planning support measures such as those provided for by law 183. Question: For example? Answer; For example, the pro3ect for Naples, the pro~ect for Palermo, the pro~ect for the inland areas. How far along are they? ~ Question: Then what do you propose? 27 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Answer: First of all, the exact opposite of what seems to be the intention of the government and the present minister for the South. It seems to me that the line that Di Giesi and his government colleagues are using is the line of the past: since planning is bankrupt, since it does not work, we distribute taxes here and there, like rain, so to apeak, even to complete minor projects. It smacks too much of an electoral climate. Question: Electoral? Answer: Precisely. The administrative elections are only 6 months off. And here all ready for 1980 is refinancing which, if removed from a planning framework, can serve to revitalize old and new customers. Question: But the money bill is still not passed. Answer: And as far as we are concerned, it will not be. Question: How is that? Answer: We communists will request the suppression of such expenditures. ~ Question: No more additional funds? Answer: Additional funds, yes, but to be sent directly to the regions through regular channels. Question: However the regions have not shown themselves to be better planners than the Fund. Answer: I would say, rather, that the Fund has not demonstrated that it is � mure capable than the regions. Its passive surpluses surpass those of the regions. Of the 18 trillion allocated, 14 trillion of which are to be reserved for special projects and for the industrial infrastructure, the commitments actually made have been 2.06 trillion in 1976, 3.85 trillion in 1977, 3.549 trillion in 1978, and 1,846 trillion for 1979 (up to 31 - October). Then the distributions made have been, respectively, 1,981 trillion for 1976, 2,406 trillion in 1977, 2,672 trillion in 1978, and 2,099 trillion through this past October. But it is a question of ~ expenditures made also on the basis of appropriations provided by laws prior to law 183. Only 554 billion has as yet been distributed from the law 183 monies! In other words, every year the Fund accumulates about 1 billion in passive surpluses. For an agency created for the purpose of planning and financing special support measures, that seems to me to be a horrible result! For Che future it is necessary to consider something different. Question: The PCI has a proposal of its own? Answer: Yes. Here is the general idea: 1) Special financing is included in the national planning; 2) this financing is managed by those who concern themselves with the planning. That is, the president of the council, the 28 - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY economic ministers, and the planning agencies should be responsible for it; this excludes the.presence of a minister for the South; 4) the recipients of the support should be the regional programs. Question: But you yourself have acknowledged that there is a regional obstacle. Answer: The functioning of the regions is a political problem and it is necessary for the southern populace to shoulder the responsibility for it. We are talking about the administrators who do not administer and those who administer poorly are right in front of their eyes, and they know them by name. So we call upon them to meet their responsibility. The administrations must be made to perform. Question: But the planning of large support measures, even interregional ones, is a task that lies beyond the real, actual capabilities of the regions. Answer: I think so. But dis3olving the Fund (which even so should manage the�completion of the wc~rk in pragress) does not mean giving up a tool capable of helping the regions. Question: What do you have in mind? Answer: Many suggestions can be made. One could be to establish an agency with a superior planning capability. It could be created by the regions themselves in coordination with the central government. Question: You mean a new Fund? Answer: No, a planning agency and a not spending agency. Question: And how about the 3,500 personnel on the staff of the Fund? Answer: A small portion could be assigned to the so-called agency. Another portion could go to the technical machinery that the regions should have. A third portion, finally, could be absorbed by the state machinery. Question: There is one of the Fund's activities that is left out of this plan--the distribution of incentives to the enterprises. Answer: Even here things must be put back in order. In the tools and in the system. Question; Please e~lain. Answer: There is a iayriad of holding companies operating in the South and for the South: national ones (INSUD, FTME, FINAM), regional ones, and special credit sections of authorized banks~ Too many. Nationally, two are sufficient--one for industry and the other for agriculture. 29 FOR~:OFFICIAL USE ONI~3~ ,;r; ; K APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Question: Theae are the tools. How about the system? Answer: The system has been changed. First of all, it is sufficient, with the incentives with no strings attached. Too many payments haye been made to too many persons. Question: Then it is sufficient with the subsidies with no strings attached. But how about for the others? Answer: It is necessary to establish objective criteria, reduce the discretional aspect, make the entrepreneur responsible. COPYRIGHT: IL Mi0ND0 1979 7428 CSO: 3104 E1VD 30 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000200060008-5