JPRS ID: 9075 USSR REPORT SPACE

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RND MY _ T

7 FEBRURRY 1980 N0. 12, DECEMBER 1979 1 OF 2
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~ JPRS L/8910
- 7 February 1980
J
= iJSSR ~e ort
p .
METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
No. 12, December 1979
~
Fg~~ FOREIGN Bi~OADCA,ST ~NFORMATION S~RVI~E
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JPRS L/8910
7 February 1980 _
~ USS R REPORT
METEOROLOGY AND HYllROLOGY '
No 12, Dece:aber 1979
Selected articles from the Russian-language journal METEOROLOGIYA
I GIDROL�OGIYr'~,, M~scow. '
CONTENTS PAGE
- USSR QrdEr of Lenin Hydrometearological Scientific Research Center Marks
its Fiftieth Anniversary
(M. A. Petrosyants) 1
~ _
Tropospheric Struc*_~~re Under Tropical Cyclogenesis Conditions
(L. S. Minina and Ye. N. Arabey) 28
Peculiarities of Distribution of the Tropopause Over thQ Earth
_ (Z. M. Makhover) 42
- Possibilities of Determining CO and N20 Profiles from Measurements on
Slant Paths in the Microwave Spectrai Range _
_ (Yu. M. Timofeyev and V. Vo Rozanov) 51
- Characteristics of Exceeding of a Stipulated Concentraticn Level in a
Stationary Jet -
(a. I. Vozzhennikov) 63
Vertical Profile of Parameter.s uf Microstructure of. Stratus Clouds
(E. L. Aleksandrov and K. B. Yudin) 72
- Some Peculiarities of the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Tritium
in Precipication Over the Territory of the USSR , -
(S. M. Vakulovskiy, et al.) 79
Psrameterization of the Active Layer i.r.ti a N.odel of Large-Scale Interaction
Between the Ocean and the Atmo~:~here -
: ~B. A. Kogar., et al.)..........,., 86
- a - [IIZ - USSR - 33 S& T FOUOJ
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a
CONTENTS (Continued) Page
Computations of Runoff Rates and Travel Time of Water from Slopes
in Determining Maximum Rain-Induced Discharges for Small Drainage
- B8S7??S
(I. K. Sribnyy) 99
Theoretical Analysis of Dependence of the Soil Water Yie1d Coefficient
on the Rate of Change in G~�ound Water Level
(I. L. Kalyuzhnyy and K. K. Pavlova) ..........................109
Water Per.~eahility of Frozen Unconsolidated Soils and Ar.alysis of the
Dynamics of its Change During the Period of Snow ?ielting and
T'.:~wing
(V. I. Shtykov) 119
Method of Moist Convective Adaptation
(A. P. Khain) 130 .
_ Comparison of Mean Conditional Entropies of T~wo Coherent Models of the
"Atmosphere - Ocean" System
(V. A. Ryasin) 137
Mete~~r.ological Space Observation System in the United States.......... Z42
Sixtieth Birthday of Mikhail Aramaisovich Petrosyants 158
Sixtieth Birthday of Vasiliy Nikiforovich Babchenko 160
Conferences, Meetings and Seminars
(A. P. Zhilyayev, et al.) 162
Notes from Abroad
(B. I. Silkin) 166
Obituary of Vyacheslav Vyacheslavovich Bykov (1921-1979) 168
,
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' PUBLICATION DATA
English title : METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLGGY
Russian title : METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA
Author (s) .
~
Editor (s) : Ye. I. Tolstikov
Publishing House : ~idrometeoizdat
Place of Publication : Moscow
Date of Publication : December 1979 _
Signed to press ' : 23 Nov 79
- Copies : 3870
COPYRIGHT : "Meteorologiya i gidrologiya",
1979
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r'
UDC 551.5:006.09
' _ USSR ORDER OF LENIN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH CENTER MARKS
ITS FIF'TIETH ANNIVERSARY
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 12, Dec 79 pp 5-21
[Article by Professor M. A. Petrosyants, Director of the USSR Hydrometeor-
ological Center, submitted for publication 10 August 1979]
Abstract: The article briefly describes the
':~istory of development of the USSR Order of
Lenin Hydrometeorological Scientific Research
Center during the 50 years of its existence.
[The article makes use of materials specially
prepared by S. L. Belousov and Ye. G. Popov,
to whom the author expresses sincere appreci-
ation.]
[Text] The Order of Lenin Hydrometeorological Scientific Research Center
traces its history from the USSR Central Weather Bureau (CWB), which in
accordance with a decree of the Presidium of the Central Executive Com- -
mittee dated 7 August 1929 entitled "Creation of a Unified Hydrameteoro-
logical Service" and a decree of the USSR Council of People's Commissars
dated 28 August 1929 entitled "Organization of the USSR Hydrometeorolog-
ical Committee," began its activity on 1.;anuary 1930. The a~ost important
motivation for the creation of a central organ of the weather service was -
the decision of the Soviet Union to assume definite international obliga-
tions and to transmit meteorological summaries abroad. The first transmis~
sion of ineteorological information from the Cf~3 fmr international use on
1 January 1930 also became the official date of beginning of operation of -
this a~ency.
The creation of the CWB was dictated by the increasing needs for meteoro-
logical servicing of vigorously developing aviation, railroad, river and
sea transport and other branches of the national economy and also the in-
cipient exploitation of regions in the Far North of our contry. The USSR
Central Weather Bureau was created on the basis of the Moscow Weather Bur-
_ eau, existing since 1918, by its combining with the Weather Service Divis- -
ion of the Main Geophysical Observatory at Leningrad, which before this
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had performed the functions of the main agency in the ~eather service. The
_ CWB was headed by Ye. I. Tikhomirov and E. P. Puyshe, who was dispatched
- from Leningrad to Moscow.
It must be said that by 1930 the weather service in our country during the ~
_ 58 years c+f its existence had accumulated much experience in operational
activity. An event of the greatest importance for its strengthening was the
signing of a decree of the Council of People's Commissars RSFSR dated 21
June 1921 by V. I. Lenin; it was entitled "On Organization of the RSFSR
Meteorological Service." A direct consequence of the decree was the restor-
ation and development of the information meteorological network of sta-
tions which already from the time of G. I. Vil'd had had excellent tradi-
tions in the carrying out of observations, and also activation of invest-
- igations initiated even prior to the Revolution by I. B. Shpindler, P. I.
Brounov, B. I. Sreznevskiy, M. A. Rykachev, A. M. Shenrok, S. D. Gribo-
yedov, B. P. Mul'tanovskiy, and others [105].
From the first days of its existence the CWB became the conveyor of new
ideas and methods: a surface isobaric synoptic method was replaced by
- frontological analysis with its concepts concerning the structure of fronts,
cyclones and anticyclones and the properties of air masses, with use of in--
dire:.t aerology. 'Phe T. Bergeron courses organized on the initiative of the
CWB in 1930 in Moscow and in 1932 in Moscow and Pyatigorsk, as well as the -
introducrion of a new synoptic code (1929), exerted a decisive influence
on the universal introduction of the progressive frontological analysis
of atmospheric processes in the USSR. The success of the courses was facil-
itated by specialists at the CWB: A. I. Asknaziy, S. P. Khromov, V. A. ~
Samoylova and a specialist at the Irkutsk Weather Bureau B. L. Dzerdzeyew
skiy.
A. I. Asknaziy, S. P. Khromov and B. I,. Dzerdzeyevskiy acted not only as
interpreters, but also as co~entators and conveyors of the new ideas and
methods. This ~ctivity was completed with publication of the book by S. P.
Khromov entitled WEDENIYE V SINOPTICHESKIY ANALIZ (Introduction to Synop-
tic Analysis) (1934), undoubtedly constituting an epoch in formation of _
- synoptic thought among weather service workers. The importance of fronto-
logical analysis was not only that it physically more correctly reflected
the weather-forming processes transpiring in the atmosphere, but also that
it forced the weatherman to think three-dimensionally. The very introduc-
:ion of fron~ological analysis laid the way for the next very important
stage in the activity of the CWB the introduction of pressure pattern
charts into the operational service.
From the time of invention of the radiosonde by P. A. Molchanov less than
seven years were required for creation of the first aerological network of
stations. This enabled Kh. P. Pcgosyan, N. L. Taborovskiy, N. V. Petrenko
and others, beginning on 1 December 1937, to prepare, on a regular basis,
maps of the absolute pressure pattern of the 700- and 500-mb surfaces
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_ and a map of the relative topography 500 over 1000 mb, whi~ch i~ediate-
ly came into use for the servicing of aviation.
- Parallel with the vigorous development of short-range forecasting work
continued in the field of long-rangE weather forecasting, initiated even
before the Revolution in Petrograd. The Long-Range Forecasting Section was
also transferred from the Main Geophysical Observatory to the CWB; prior
to the Great Fatherland War it remained territorially in Leningrad. Up
to 1938 it was headed by V. P. Mul'tanovskiy, who drew a team of enthu-
siasts to work in this difficult field: E. S. Lir, G. Ya. Vangengeym,
S. T. Pagava, L. A. Vitel's, T. A. Duletov, and others. By this time
the techniques for a generalized representation of a sequence of synop-
tic processes in time had been developed and specialists had formulated
the basic ideas concerning centers of action in the atmosphere, natural
synoptic periods and seasons, their tendencies, and also concepts con- :
cerning the trajectories of movement (axes) of anticyclones ss indices
of transfer prevailing in the atmosphere, concepts to a certain degree
anticipating the concepts of a steering current and blocking anticyclones
[35, 71]. Proceeding on the basis of these ideas, B. P. Mul'tanovskly
in 1922, working at Leningrad, began the regular issuance of long-range E
forecasts, which with the organization of the CWB continued in Moscow.
The position of the Central Weather Bureau as the operational prognostic
center obligated it to service the directing national economic agencies
not only with meteorological, but also with hydrological and agrometeor-
ological information and forecasts. Accordingly, already in 1930 a sec-
tion on hydrological informarion and forecasts was organized in the CWB
under the direction of V. L. Nikitin, where such now well-known hydrol-
ogists as B. A Apollov, V. D. Komarov, 0. T. Mashkevi.ch and V. A. Troi-
tskiy began to work.
The research work of the section on hydrological information and fore-
casts of the CWB was directed to the development of a method of pertinent
levels in short-range forecasts and the use of correlation analysis for `
determining the dependences between the elements of the hydrological re- -
- gime and the factors governing them. Among the studies of that time we
should mention the PRAKTICHESK~YE RUKOVODSTVO DLYA PROIZVODSTVA GIDROL~G-
ICHESKIY.H PROGNOZOV (Practical Manual for Mal:ing Hydrological Forecasts)
by 0. T. Mashkevic:i (1933), the studies of V. D. Komarov (1936-1939) on
investigation of the runoff of rivers of the Oka basin, which served as
the beginning for the water balance approach to evaluation of losses of =
meltwater runoff and prediction of the volume of high waters on the basis
of data from snow measuring surveys, 3nd also the studies of B. A. Apollov
on the development of inethods for the prediction of aifferent elements of
- the water regime of rivers and a generaiization of world experience in
the field of hydrological forecasts.
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Soon after the organization of the CWB, the "harvest service" was trans-
ferred to it from the People's Commissariat of Agriculture RSFSR; this was
a service for supplying agricultural organizations with agrometeorological
information. The practical work of servicing of developing agricul~ure in
our country required not only current weather conditions information, but
also the preparation of a~rometeorological forecasts. The first such fore-
casts, a forecast of the wintering of winter crops, was prepared by G. Z. -
Ventskevich in 1932, and in 1.933 A. A. Shigolev gave a forecast of the
, times of maturing win*_er rye in the European territory of the USSR~
If we were to ~haracterize the period from 1930 to 1941 as a whole, it
could be said that for the CWB it was a period of development of the tech-
niques and procedures for synoptic analysis, the establishment of inethods ~
for hydroffieteorological forecasts, in short, a period of organization of
a forecasting service in our country.
- At the same time, at the Mair. Geophysical Observatory work continued in
the field of theoretical meteorology, so brilliantly initiated by A. A.
Fridman. Here a groLp of talented scientists was fr,rmed: L. V. Keller,
N. Ye. Kochin, I. Kibel', B. I. Izvekov, Ye. N. Blinova, A. A. Dorod-
nitsyn and M. I. Yudin. Their outstanding investigations constituted the
- theoretical foundation for subsequent successes in weatiier forecasting.
It is particularly necessary to note the studies of N. Ye. Kochin on
~;~neral circulation of the atmosphere, important for the subsequent cre-
ation of a theory oi long-range hydrodynamic weather forecasting by Ye.
N. Blinova, and the work of I. A. Kibel' entitled PRILOZHENIYE K METEOR-
OLOGII URAVNENIY MEKHANIKI BAROKLINNOY ZHIDKOSTI (Application of the Mech-
anics of a Baroclinic Fluid to Meteorology), opening the way to the de-
velopment of numerical methods for short-range weather forecastin~.
During the years of the Great Fatherland War all the activity of the Cen-
tral Weather Institute, and after 1943 the Central Institute of Forecasts,
was subordinated to the tasks of ineteorological and hydrological support
of military operations of the Red Army. This was a period of exceptional-
ly intense work, when under conditions of limited information it was ~
necessary to solve highly important problems in the description and pre-
dicti.on of ineteorological and hydralagical conditions. For example, N. A. !
aristov headed the Central Institute of Forecasts affiliate on the long-
r_ange aviation staff; Ye. I. Gogolev and A. D. Gorshkova carried out
meteorological sexvicing of the Main Admintstration of the Civil Air
~ F1eet; S. M. Prostyakov at Reykjavik prepared weather forecasts for air-
craft fexried from N?wfoundland and Mur~ansk; V. R. Dubentsov and I. G. -
Pchelko headed work on the preparation of forecasts at the institute it-
sPlf. S. T. Pagava and his section prepared seasonal, and monthly weather
forecasts for the theater of nilitary operations. A group of h3~drologists _
under the general direction of G. R. Bregman carried out the hydrological
support of operations planned by the High Command ana the General Staff _
of the Soviet Army. _
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_ But even in the severe war years the research did not cease: in 1943
Ye. N. Blinova published the wark GIDRODINArffCHESKAYA TEORIYA VOLN
DAVLENIYA, TEMPERATURNYKH VOLN I TSENTROV DEYSTVIYA ATMOSFERY (Hydrody-
namic Theory of Prcessure Waves, Temperature Waves and Centers of Action
in the Atmosphere), from which under her direction began the creation of
a method for the hydrodynamic long-range forecasting of weather. Through
the efforts of Ye. N. Blinova, N. Bagrov, S. A. Mashkovich, A. S. '
Monin, G. I. Morskiy, Ya. M. Kheyfets arid others, a~ready in 1y47-1949
it was possible to prepare the first long-range forecasts by means of
_ solution of a linearized system of equations in hydrodynamics in a
quasisolenoidal ~pproximation. Later, but more than 35 years under tk~e
direction of Ye. N. Blinova~ work is continuing on the development af
~ long-range hydrodynamic forecasting of the mean monthly air ten~~rature
and some other~elements. No4: such forecasts are being pr~pared routinely
40 days before they are to go into effect and are used as mandatory con-
sultation material in the formulation of the official monthly forecast of
the USSR Hydrometeorological Center [12-16].
After the victory over Hitler's Fascism in the Great Fatherland War a re-
structuring of CWB activity began in accordance with the requirements
of the national econony, which was being restored. The section of agro-
meteorological forecasts was returned to the institute from the People's
Commissariat of Agriculture; a section on aviation mete:~rology was organ-
ized under the direction of I. G. Pchelko; work was expanded on the de-
velopment of ~ethods for hydrological and m~rine hydrological fcrecasts.
In the field of short-range weather forecasts, there was, on the one hand,
active use of new aerological data, in essence, the creation of truly
three-dimensional s~noptic forecasting, and on the other hand, unusually
- intensive development of the theory of hydrodynamic short--range weather
forecasting. Work along these lines was headed by an outstanding s;.ientist,
. Corresponding Member USSR Academy of Sciences I.. A. Kibel', who began his
activity in the Central Institute of Forecasts in 1943 as the director of
the section on dynamic meteorology. Very rapidly a group of talented your.g
people was formed in the section; these included N. N. Buleyev, S. L. Bel-
ousov, P, N. Belov, V. V. Bykov, Ye. Pi. Dobryshman, G. I. Marchuk, S. A.
Mashkovich, A. S. Monin, Sh. A. Musayelyan, A. M. Mkhitaryan, V. P. Sado- ~
kov, A. S. Sarkisyan, and others. The fact of existence of a small para-
meter in the equations of atmospheric dynamics, mentioned by I. A. Kibel',
enabled him to create the f irst method for numerical short-range forecas t-
ing of pressure and temperature [48J. The testing of this methad gave en-
couraging results and work on its improvement was continued by I. A. ~
Kibel', B. D. Uspenskiy, N. I. Buleyev and other.s.[S2]. At the same time,
V. A. Bugayev, Kh. P. Pogosyan and N. L. Taborevskiy ga~e an interpreta-
tion of the prognostic formulas an~ developed qualitative rules for the
change in pressure which were used by weathermen for judging the future
development of the process j17, 86, 96]. Somewhat later N. I. Bu].eyev
created a simple graphic method for constructing a fut~ire map of altitudes
of the "mean" level of the tr~posphere (700 or 500 mb).
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1~UK UP'r'1l:lAL USL~ UNLY
At the beginning of the 1950's N. I. Buleyev and G. I. Marchuk took a
new and extremely important step in formulating a theory of hydrodynamic ~
short-range forecasting they examined a three-dimensi~,nal baroclinic
model of the atmosphere and gave a solution f.or the time derivative of
~;eopotential in general form with use of Green's functions [22]. Thio
solution served as a basis for fo rmulating operational forecasting
schemes, when with the appearance of electronic computers a new stagE
began the stage of practical use of numerical forecasts of ~utt:re
fields of geonotential and other meteorological elements.
In 1954 S. L. Belousov [9] used an electronic computer for realizinA the
first barotropic model; then in 1955 S. A. Mashkovich [64] made use of a
baroclinic two-level model; and in 1958 P. K. Dushkin and Ye. G. Lomono-
sov created a three-level model [34]. Numerical forecasts of pressure
- pattern charts using this model were better than the charts prePared b~
the synoptic method. This i~edia tely shifted the computations on elec-
tronic computers which were made on the machines of other organizations
since 195~ from the field of promising experiments into the field of di-
_ rect operational use. Already by 1961 the director of the ,Toint Meteor-
ological Computation Center Qf the Main Admiaistration of the Hydroneteor-
ological Service and the USSR Academy of Sciences (later the World Meteor-
ological Center) P. K. Yev~seyev, dew ting great forces and energies to
outf.itting the center with electronic computers, succeeded in having a
First-generation electronic computer (the M-20) come into use for the
- roiitine computation o~ forecasts and in 1963 t:ie first technological sys-
tem for routine numerical forecasting..was created. It provided for the
use in torecasting of filtered models for a restricted region, and then
for the entire northern hemisphere. An objective analysis scheme was for-
:.~ulated on the basis of the optimum interpolation method developed by
L. S. Gandin [10] in order to obtain the initial geopotential fields.
Later equipment for autcmated primary processing of initial data and means
for the automatic representation of computed prognostic charts were creat-
ed and included in the work. The created technological system ensured
the issuance of forecasts for a limited region (Europe and Western Siber-
ia) for a time up to 36 hours for the geopotential fields at different
- levels on the basis of the spatial quasigeostrophic model developed by
N. I. Buleyev and G. I. Marchuk [2Z] and forecasts of a number of other
parameters (vertical velocities, trajectories of air particles, etc.). The
_ introduction of this system made possible a complete abolition of compila-
tion of prognostic high-level charts by the synoptic method.
Simultanaously with the creation of numerical forer.asting methods, which
initial?y had the purpose primariiy of prediction of pressure (geopoten-
tial), vertical currents and the trajectory of air particles, there was
intensive development of inethods for computing weather elements: temper-
ature (Ye. M. Orlova, D. A. Ped'), wind (D. A. Chistyakov, N. V. Petrenko),
cloud cover (K. G. Abramovich, T. P. Popova, L. S. Minina), precipitation
(A. F. Dyubyuk, N. I. Buleyev, N. L. Lebedeva, A. A. Bachurina, B. D.
Uspenskiy, Ye. M. Orlova, B. Ye. Peskov), fog and visibility (N. N.
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Petrenko), aircraft turhulence (I. G. Pchelko).
This intensive work, undertaken on the initiative and under the direction
of the director of the Central Institute of Forecasts Academician Uzbek =
= Academy of Sctences V. A. Bugayev, was comgleted by the publication in 1964-
196.~ of the RUKOVODSTVO PO KRATKOSROCHNYM PROGNOZAM POGODY (Manual on Short-
Range Weather Forecasting) (Parts I and TI), which conatitutes the basic
instructions for working weatheYtnen even at the pre~cent time. .
' The introduction of pressure pattern charts into weather service practice _
did not ieave long-range weather forecasting to one side. A radical recon-
sideration of the experience accumulated in the field of long-range fore-
casting was begun under the direction of S. T. Pagava; this was true of
both methods for short-range forecasts for relatively short times in ad-
vance (S. T, Pagava, Yu. B. Khrabrov, D. A. Ped', A. L. Kats), and with -
respect to weather forecasts for a month and a season (S. T. Pagava, L.
I. B1yLmmina, Ye. I. Borisova, 0. N. Khazova, V. G. Shishkov rhe -
rhythm of atmospheric processes and N. A. Bagrov, K. A. Vasyukov, N. I.
Zverev, D. A. Ped', S. A. Mashkovich, Kh, Kh. Rafailova, Yu. B. Khrabrov,
D. A~ Drogaytsev similarity of atmospheri~ processes). In particular,
G~e should note the activity of N. A. Bagrov, who made a major contribu- -
- tion to objectivization of the classification of atmospher'ic processes
and evaluation of forecasts [6-8, 26, 32, 37, 38, 46, 78, 79, 81].
The ever-increas~ng practical requirements in the servicin~ of planned
_ agriculture led to the rapid development of the agrometeorolo~ica~l ser-
vice in the country and agrometeorological investigations in the institute.
Mechods for agrometeorological observatians were created (I. M. Petunin,
V. V. Sinel'shchikov, M. S. Kulik, A. A. Olcushko, V. A. Moiseychik). Also
developed w~re quantitative methods for evaluating the state and onset of
phases of development of different agricultural crops (A. A. Shigolev,
A. V. Protserov, Yu. I. Chirkov, T. A. Pobetova, N. Z. Ivanova-~ubkova,
M. S. Kulik, Ye. S. Ulanova, and others), methods for computing the mois-
ture reserves under agricultural crops and the anticipated moisture supply .
(S. A. Verigo, L. A. Razumova, M. S. Kulik, A. V. Protserov, B. N. Pono-
marev, N. A. 7.ubarev, A. S. Kontorshchikov), methods for long-range fore-
casting of areas of death of winter crops during wintering (I. M. Petunin,
V. A. Moiseychik), and finally, and most importantly, methods for the long- _
range forecasting of the yield of. agricultural crops (M. S. Kulik, Ye. S.
Ulanova, A. V. Protserov, K. V, Kirilicr~:eva, B. Pl. Ponomarev, Yu. I. Chtr-
kov, Yu. S. Mel'nik, ard others) [28, 29, 5S, 56, 7C; 100, 101],
Agrometeorological investigations also continued to be developed later,
although with the transfer of some of the specialists of the Central Inst-
itute of Forecasts to the Institute of Experimental Meteorology (Obninsk)
in 1964 it became more difficult to combine operational and research work.
The first post-war decade was characterized by the intensive de~elopment _
, of hydrological investigations, which were dictated by the necessity to
solve the problems, which had become tlze order. of the day, of long-range
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_ forecasts of the runcff of lowland and mountain rivers, forecasts of the
- n~aximtun dischar~;es and levels of spring high water and rain-induced high
- ti~aters, predictions of the levels of navigable rivers, long- and short-
range ice f~recasts.
During this period specialists developed the theoretical principlES for
computing absorptior. and retention of water and surface runoff for low-
land river basins and created a physical-statistical method for rhe lor.g-
= range forecasting of spring runoff (Ye. G. Popov, V. D. Komarov, V. N.
Parshin, M. S. Salov, Ye. S. Zmiyeva, T. I. Velikanova, and others). On
the basis of a model of a river basin as a system with a nonuniform dis-
- tribution of surface capacity and a variable infiltration capacity of the
soils it was possible to derive equations for integral runoff and water ~
release of a hasin for capacitive and infiltration-capacitive t.ypes of
~aater absorption, expressing the general form of wa~er balance dependence~
for long-range forecasts of the runoff of high water ~�e. G. Popov) [87].
The introduction of nonuniformity of falling and melting of the snow
cover and the depth of soil freezing into theory and practical computa-
tions of ineltwater runoff was of fundamental importance (V. D. Komarov)
~53]. -
~1 method was created for predicting discharge and the levels of high water
and rain-induced high waters along the watershed into the channel network
and the water reserves in the channel netwark, computed on the basis of
tiydrometric data (G. P. Kalinin); it was applied and developed applicable
to different rivers (V. I. Sapozhnikov, A. I. Afanas'yev and others); the
principles were laid for a metfiod for predicting the seasonal runoff of
the mountain rivers of CentraZ Asia, Siberia and the Caucasus (T. S. Ab- -
al.'yan, A. N. Vazhnov, N. G. Dmitriyeva, V. N. Parshin, A. A. Kharshan and
- others); a study was made of the ice regime of rivers and methods were de-
veloped for ice forecasts for different times in advance (V. V. Piotro-
vich, L. G. Shulyakovskiy, S. N. Bulatov, B. M. Ginzburg, Ye. I. Savchen- -
l:ova and others).
. During the subsequent years the development and improvement of practi~al
methods for long-range forecasts of runoff of lowland and mountain rivers,
in parric.ular, the inflow of water into the reservoirs of large hydroelec-
tric power stations, for different times in advance occupied an important
place in investigations of hydrological forecasts (V. N. Parshin, Ye. S.
Zmiyeva, T. S. Abal'yan, V. I. Sapozhnikov, Yu. V. Gorbunov and others).
A method for short-range forecasts of the appearance of ice on rivers and
reservoirs was developed and widely introduced into practice (L. G. Shul- _
yakovskiy).
In the field of short-range forecasting of the discharges and levels of
water great attention was devoted to the development of approximate meth- -
ods for computing the unsteady motion of water in channels (G. P. Kalinin,
P. I. Milyukov, A. P. Zhidikov) and numerical methods for its computation ~
on the basis of the equations of hydrodynamics applicable to individual
8
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reaches of rivers (L. S. Kuchment, V. I. Koren~) and reservoirs (Ye. P. -
Chemerenko) [30].
i Th~ results attained to th~e late ]_950's in the field of creation of inetho~3s
for hydrological forecasts were generalized in the fou~volume publicatiun
RUKOVOUSTVO PO GIDROLOGICHESKIM PROGNOZAri ~Manual on Hydrological Fore-
casts) ~1463, 1954).
Immediately after ending of the Great Fatherland War, at the Central Inst-
itute of Forecasts there was activation of work on methods for marine hy-
droZogical forecasts. This was facilitated to a considerable degree by the
experience accumulated during hydrometeorological support of operations of
the Navy in different theaters of mili~ary operations. Methods were de-
veloped for long-range forecasts of ice phases in the nonarctic seas wash~-
ing the shores of the USSR, forecasts of the ice coverage of seas, short-
range ice forecasts, computat~on of water temperature and position of the
ice edge in the open sea, long-range forecasts of water temperature and
mean monthly levels, short-range forecasts of levals and currents, mean an-
nual levels of the Caspian Sea (N. A. Belinskiy, G. P. Kalinin, A. I. Kar-
_ akash, G. S. Ivanov, Ye. M. Sauskan, M. G. Glagoleva, S. I. Kan,, va. A.
; Tyutnev, and others [24, 43, 44].
- Late in 1965 the Central Institute of Forecasts and the World Meteorolog-
ical Center were joined together and the USSR Hydrometeorological Sci-
entific Research Center was created on their basis. V. A. Bugayev, Acad-
_ emician Uzbek Academy of Sciences, a leading scientist and outstanding or-
ganizer oi Soviet hydrometeorological science, was designated director of
the USSR H~drometeorological C~nter. Many initiatives leading to the re-
structuring of all scientific and operational activity of the weather
servi.ces are associated with the name of V. A. Bugayev. Together. with the _
American scientist G. Wexler, V. A. Bugayev was the creator of the plan
ror the World Weather Watr_h (WWW). The successive implementation of this
plan led to a modern, international, well-organized ogerational prognos~ic _
system with a clear distribution of functions between world, regional and
national mereorological centers both in the fiel.d of processing of ineteor-
- ological information and the output of prognostic products, but also in
the field of practical servicing of the user with weather forecasts [19,
20, 84 ) .
V. A. Bugayev was an initiator of application of space inf~rmation in
- meteorology. Inspired by his enthusiasm, specialists at the ;;SSR Hydro-
meteorological Center I. P. Vetlov, N. F. Vel'rishchev, L. S. :=inina, T. P.
Popova, G. N. Isayeva and others carried out methodological, technical and
scientific direction of the introduction of satellite information into
the practical work of the weather serv-Lce. K. P. Vasil'yev into the
practical work of servicing of navigation, and P. N. Belov, A. I. Burtse.v,
G. I. Morskoy and Sh. A. Musayelyan into numerical weather analysis and
forecasting [40, 68, 72].
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~ ' ~
.
During 1968-19i2 the second-generation electranic computers M-220, M-222 1.
- and "Vesna" wer~ installed at the USSR Hydrometeorological Center. Thls ~
made it possihle, in addition to numerical forecasts of pressure patte?-n
charts and within the framework of this same system for the processing of
information, to intred~.!ce hydrodynamic forecasts of continuous precipita-
tion, extremal temperatures and convective phenomena into actual practice, -
as ~ell as forecasts of the surface pressu-re fields, on the basis of a ~
synoptic-hydrodynamic scheme, takiiig into account data un surface pres-
sure tendencies and using nydrodynamic forecas.*_ing of AT500 charts [4,
67]. A technology was also developed for obtaining forecasts of waves on =
the bas~s of numerical hemispheric forecasts of surface pressure fields
ror a time up to five days using a quasisolenoidal model.
With thi.s the possibilities of the c~uasigeostrophic and quasisolenoidal -
prognostic modeZs were exhausted. Their principal shortcoming is the im- _
possihility of predicting rapid restructurings of the pressuxe field and
_ other transformations associated with considerable deviations of the wind
from geostrophic.
With the setting aside of the restrictions of the geostrophic approximation
a new stage began in the field of numerical weather forecasts with a
changeover to the use of a"full" system of equatiuns [~+9, S1, 62]. The
first prognostic models for a restricted r~gion on the basis of full equa-
~ions were introduced into practice at the Hydrometeorological Center in
_ 1965. However, as a result of the incompleteness of the initial data em-
ployed (lack of initial wind fields), inadequate resolution and due to
other limitations during this period the new models did not make it pos-
sible to obtain significant refinements in the forecasts for 24-36 hours
in comparison with the filtered models. Their known advantage was mani-
fested only in a forecast of the surface chart. Later, also on the basis
of the full equations, hemisphe:.ic multilevel prognostic schemes were
formulated and introduced (1971-1972). Despite the enumerated restric-
tions, for.ecasts made using these modPls found everyday practical applic-
ation: they were used as consultative material in the preparation of
weather forecasts for 3-5 days in advance at the USSR Hydrometeorological
Center [23, 27, 41, 49, 50, 88].
The creation of a new system for the processing of ineteorological informa-
_ tion at the USSR Hydrometeorological Center began with the acquisition of
a BESM-6 electronic computer in 1975. Specialists organized support for
this computer, supplying it with higher-quality initial information ac-
cumulated using "Minsk-32" computers specially designed for these purposes. _
The means for checking and objective analysis of ineteorological information
on the BESM-6 were also improved. All this made it possible to introduce -
into practice the operational calculation of forecasts for a hemisphere
using a model hased on the full equations of hydrodynamics and generaliz-
- ing the experience of operational use of tha schemes employed earlier. In
order to improve information support there was crganized preparation of
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additional initial data for operational forecasts (in add~ition to autu-
mati;:ally process~ble o~servational dsta). These data are prepared by
~ weathermen for regions with limited observa2ional data on the basis o.f all
, available information a?~d profeasional experience. Tt?e data are fed to the
electronic compu~er in the i`orm of "communications" frrm s4me fictitioug
stations. All this determined tt~e advantage of hemispherical forecasts
using the new modPl in comparison with forecasts made using former models -
(Tables l, 2) [5, 11, 45, 103J.
Together with the development and improvement of prognostic models and
methods for objective analysis provision was also made for an in~rease
in the output of prognostic materials for direct use in practical work. A1-
ready in the 1960's hemispherical forecasts of surface pressure were used
- for computing t:he height and direction ~~f waves in the ocean, serving as
- a basis for issuance of reco;nmended courses for ship navigation. Later
these methods were introduced into the practical work of a number of other
centers in charge of ineteorological support of inerchant marine operations.
TI?e last few years, using numerical forecasting of the geopotential and
wind fields, for use in civil aviation computations are made of the posi-
tion of zones of moderate and strong turbulence at the altitude of air-
- craft flight and computations are made of flight plans along the princ-
- ipal long-distance air routes (about 40 air routes) [21]. The results of
these computations in the form of maps and tables in logs with flight plans ~
respectively are sent directly from the Hydromet~orological Center to the _
subdivisions providing operational meteorological support for aviation.
The savings from the introduction of the automated system of navigation
computations is several hundred thousand rubles per year.
At the present time at the USSR Hydrometeorological Center provision is
made for issuance of the following prognostic materials for use in synop-
tic practice:
Under the program of the World Meteorological Center predictions for -
the northern hemisphere region: predictions of surface pressure and alti-
tudes of different isobaric surfaces (to 100 mb) for from 24 to 84 hours
in advance. Nineteen prognostic charts are issued daily: these charts are
ready within 9 hours after the time of observations.
Under the program of the Regiorial Meteorological Center regional
forecasts of the surface pressure .fields and the altitudes of six isobaric
surfaces (to 200 mb) for from 18 to 72 hours in advance; forecasts of ver-
tical currents, quantity of precipitation and trajectories of air par-
ticles, a total of about 50 charts. These materials are ready for use at _
the Hydrometeorological Center and for facsimile transmission within the
limits from 5 to 6 hours after the time of observations.
The nwnerical forecasts of the pressure (geopotential) fi'cld wl~ich have now
been developed fo r the time being ha~:e not replaced synoptic meteorology
the formulation of a weather forecast remains and will probably long
remain its responsi~iility. However, numerical forecasts have exerted the
C~-
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r~x urrlt,it~, u~~ ULVLY _
most direct influence not only on increasing the probable success of ~ =
weather forecasts, but also on the nature of research, whose center of
gravity has recently been shifted from a search for rules for predicting
- the future development of the process (which is now given by numerical
_ forecasts) to the development c~f objective methods for forecasting (com-
puting) weath~r phenomena, esgecially when they attain a dangerous or par-
ticularly dangerous intensity.
r ' ~
90
1.
BO
70
,~^~~~~~n~ j ~`.1~ ~
J ~ ~
A
6,7 ~
~ ~
V ~ ~ i �
v ~i
sn
?9>0 1945 1950 9955 f.960 1965 1970 1975 13190
Fig. 1. Probable success of short-range weather forecasts for Moscaw.
_ 1) forecasts by the USSR Hydrometeorological Center, 2) inertial forecasts.
In this connection during recent years at the Hydrometeorological Center
much attention has been devoted to methods for predicting storm winds, in-
tensive convective phenomena (showers, thunderstorms, squalls), glaze, low
clouds and fogs, precipitation, etc. [18, 97, I02]. The results of the com- -
bined efforts of hydrodynamicists and forecasters can be seen in the ex-
ample of the increase in the probable success of weather forecasts for -
Moscow (Fig. 1).
Progress in numerical methods has also led to a substantial improvement in
short-range weather forecasting. The synoptic-statistical method for pre-
dicting five- and ten-day temperature and its anomaly, developed by A. L.
l:ats and his associates and introduced into practical work in 1965, was
considerably improved by the use of numerical forecasting of ATS00 for 72
hours as tt~e basic predictor [25, 47]. The so-called synoptic-hydrodynamic-
statistical method for pred~cting the mean five-day temperature, five-day
temperature anomaly and five-day quanti.ty of precinitation, and also tne
mean ten-day temperature and its anomaly was intrcuuced in 1973. Since
that time in the supplement to the YEZHEDNEVNYY GIDROMETEOROLOGI~HESKIY
EYULLETEN' GIDROMETTSENTRA SSSR (Daily Hydrometeorological Bulletin of the
- USSR Hydrometeorological Center), which has been published since 1 May
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.
1936, appendices to the bulletin containing the above-mentioned forecasts
are p~;blished on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays.
- Table 1
Relative Errors in Operational Forecasts Pr~pared at the Hydrometeorological
~ Center Using a Regional Qua~igeostrophic Model and a Hemispherical Model on
the Basis of Full Equations in 1976-1977 (Comparison for Region of the
Regional Model)
24 ,c 2 48 k I 72 K
11por~orrxaecxax '
1l011e]Ib
1 30V.7A ~I 500 ~ 3Ck11A ~ 500 ~6 se~ana ~ 500 x6
r) P2CNOH3AbH3H K883FlI'20CTp0-
_ cpaqecxaA Mo1te~ - 0,70 - 0,76 - 0,86
6 Ilonymapxaa ~+oAenb c non-
HFiMH }rpflBHeHNAMff 0,71 0,66 0,81 0,76 0,88 0,82
KEY:
1. Prognostic model
2, hours
3. e3rth's surface
4, mb ~
S. Regional quasigeostrophic model
6. Hemispherical model with full equations
During recent years the greatest attention has been devoted to the problem
of long-range weather forecasting, the most necessary for the national econ-
omy, but the problem which is most difficult to solve, that is, weather fore-
casting for a month or season in advance. Research is being conducted in -
different directions. In par~icular, improvements are being made in the of-
ficial B. P. Mul'tanovskiy-S. T. Pagava monthly forecasting method, espec-
ially with respect to the means employed for automating the selection of
analogue-years in the ob~ectivization of the basic points in the method
(rhythmic activity, similarity evaluation [2, 8, 39, 80, 82, 83]. ,
The experience acctmmulated in preparing monthly weather forecasts, both at -
the USSR Hydrometeorological Center and in other agencies of the weather
service, in 1472 was generalized in the RUKOVODSTVO PO MESYACHNYM PROGNOZAM
POGODY (Manual on Monthly Weather Forecasts), which is now in use. In addi-
tion to the deterministic approach to the description of atmospheric pro-
cesses, statistical methods are also being employed at the USSR Hydrometeor-
ological Center j44, 95]. The pioneer in the application of these methods in
our insti~ute was N. A. Bagrov, who was the first to introduce into meteor-
~ ological research representations of ineteorological fields in the form of
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expan~ion in natural orthogonal components. This method then fuund exten-
sive application. in the development of physical-staristical methods for
forecasting the most diversi~ied of ineteorolo~ical and hydrological para-
meters [1, 6, 31].
Table 2
Indices of Success of Numerical Operational Forecasts of the Pressure Field
Prepared at the Hydrometeorological Center (on 1 June 1979) (According to
A. L. Ugryumov)
~ Iloxa3aremt ycnemHOCrH
IIpOCHOCTHqCCK3A Cpox _
MOAP~b ~ yPoB2H6 nporH3aa, v e I r I b I S~ �
t
5 PerEtoxanbHde nporNOa~
_ ~ ~{IHOfITHKO-CN,4p0,~1IH8J1H- 32MA$ 24 O,iQ 0,73 3,34 50 -
qecxast ' gr~u 36 0,83 0,60 3,82 62
g Kea3EireocTpocpNycchaR 500.u6 24 0,67 0,62 3,58 45
mb 36 0,68 0,62 4,95 52
- ( IIonyucapxde nporxoa~
9 Tlonyce~ep?cax Mo~enb setiaH 24 0,79 0,64 3,75 55
I'NUpoxeTueHrpa 48 0,90 0,53 5,81 74
72 0,95 0,48 7,01 85
500 .~6 24 0,75 0,70 3,72 41
48 0,83 0,61 6,15 57
72 0,93 0,51 8,08 70
KEY:
l. Prognostic model 5. Regional forecasts
2. Level 6. Hemispherical forecasts
3. Forecast period 7. Synoptic-hydrodynamic _
4. Success index 8. Quasigeostrophic
9. Hemispherical model (Hydrometeor-
ological Center)
Note. ~ is th~ relative forecasting error; r is the correlation coefficient
lietween the actuaJ. and predicted changes; ~ is the absolute forecasting
error (mb or dam); S1 is the index of success in forecasting field gradi- `
ents (in an ideal forecast S'1 = 0).
In the investigations of recent years a significant place is occupied by
- numerical modeling of general circulation of the atmosphere: I. V. Tros-
nikov created a finite-difference and S. A. Mashkovich and I. G. Veyl' ~
created two variants of a spectral model of global circulation which are
intended for numerical experiments on general circulation of the atmosphere
= and for forecasting for periods up to 7-;.0 days in advance [65, 66, 98, 99J.
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Table 3 -
Sample Volune of Hydrometeorological Information Emanating from the USSR
Hydrometearological Center in Course of Year
BNA6I NH~OpNBI(HN ~ K B` COA BO T"pa* B~CCO ~
1 2 3 4
9 CrteuxanbHde cnpaeK?c H~toKrau~ a pyxoeoltAU~ne
- opraa~ I 165 I 30 ~ 4950
5 MereoponoruyecKaa Nx~opMaqi~A
10 E~ceaxeeeaii ri~ApoMeTeoponoritaectcN~ G~o,nneTef?b 254 750 190500
11 npor~~oa noro~~ xa 5 ai+e~l 150 750 110000 _
Z2 To kce xa 10 ,~F~ei~ 70 750 ~ 525000
~ 1 3 ' xa HecAu ' . 12 1750 21000
xa cesoH 6 50 300
15 n~tynpe~c~exH~ 06 oco6o onacx~x asneH~?Rx !08
6 ArpoMeTeoponorbqecKaa NH~OR~17uNA
16 arpo~~ernporxo3~t 36 50 (S00
fi~onneTeHt[ 62 ~ 300 I 18600
- 18 OCOGCHHOCTIi HC~E~7H SZ 92 2944
� 7 TNAPOJIOfH4CCKdA NH~IOpMBuHR
ly t'unponorx4ec~:nc 6ronACTCHH 45 340 15300
_ 20 1?'[opchuc 6~oanereHF~ I 9 I 370 I 3330
$ PaANO, re,nesHAeHNC, neyarb -
21 Pa~~to (5 nporpa~~~) ~ ,
22 ~ItKTOPCKOC IITEHItC 19000
e~tcrynneHNR cneu~ia ~Eicros 624
24 '['~en~uHacHNe (6 nporpar~~)
22 A~~KTOPCKOE'. 9 ~exNe 3960
B61CTyI1JIfHNA CIICqNBANCTOB 6OO
25 ~~crw ,
2~ 12 ueHTpa~~bFi~tx u ropo~cKnx � - 365
2 ~ 2 e~ce~ie~enh~rnKa . 52
KapTw noro~~ perynapHO ny6nxhywrcA e raserax ~N3eecr}~A~, �E{e~ten~~, cJleHm~-
cKOe sNa+~A~. _
- KEY:
1. Type of information 11. Weather forecast for 5 days
2. Nwnber per year 12. Same, for 10 days
3. Copies, each 13. Same, for month
Tatal copi~s 14. Same, for season
5. Meteorological information 15. Warnings of especially dan-
6. Agrometeorological information gerous phenomena
7. Hydrological information 16. Agrometecrological forecasts
8. Radio, television, press 17. Bulletins
9. Special su~naries and reports 18. Special weekly events
to key agencies ' 19. Hydrological bulletins
10. Daily hydrometeorological bulletin 20. Marine bulletins
15
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- KEY TO TABLE 3 (continued)
21. Radio (5 programs) 25. Newspapers -
- 22. Announcer's reading 26. 12 central and city
23. Presentation by specialists 27. 2 weeklies _
24. Tel.evision (6 programs) _
_ The weather maps are regularly published in the newspapers IZVESTIYA, NED-
ELYA and LENINSKOYE ZNAMYA.
During the last few years, under the direction of Sh. A. Musayelyan and
. V. P. Sadokov, work has begun on the practical implementation of the new
idea, formulated by Academician G. I. Marchuk, of developing a long-range -
forecasting me!-hod based on integration of the conjuga*_e equations of
- atmospheric dynamics. Closely related to these studies are investigations
of long-range asynchronous physical relationships between processes of a
planetary scale in the atmosphere and in the oceans in regions consider- ~
ably spaced in distance [63, 73, 74, 91, 92].
Eqiially important are studies having the purpose of' improving the official
nethod for seasonal weather forecasting creaked by S. T. Pagava and its
extension to the entire territory of the USSR [3, 33, 93]. It must be not-
ed that ten years of experience in the preparation of seasonal forecasts
by the official method, based on the concepts of a natural synoptic season
and disruptions-precursors, demonstrated that for the European USSR these
forecasts not only have = 0.30-0.40, but also a relative error in summer
less than unity. At present this is the only method tiavin; such a high
proba~le success. In our opinion this result is of fundamental importance -
bec~use it shows experimentally that the predictability of large anomalies
is quite great and exceeds 14 days. _
Weather forecasting is impossible without information on the current and
preceding states of the atmosphere and the underlying surface. The longer
ehe period for which a forecast is made, the greater is the area from
~~hich information must be received. fnformation is necessary from the en-
tire earth for long-range weather forecasting. This trivial situation
nevertheless continues to persist and at the presEnt time the problem of
- initial data remains unsolved. At the USSR Hydrometeorological Center
great attention has always been devoted to the collection of ineteorolog-
ical information. Publication of the SINOPTICI~SKIY BYULLETEN' began
in January 1949. This SYNOPTIC BULLETIN contains synoptic and aerolog-
_ ical maps of the northern hemisphere. In 1953 V. R. Dubentsov headed
work on an analysis of synoptic and aerological charts, first for ~he
northern hemisphere, and then the southern hemispher~ and the tropical
zone. During this time unique material was accumulated for the study of
planetary circulation of the atmosphere. However, considerable gaps in
the observation network of the world weather service over the oceans, _
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in the tropics and in some other regions of the earth ser~ed as one of _
the reasons for the development of the GE!RP program, in ~ttose planning
an active part was taken by V. A. Bugayev, Ye. N. Blinova, and othera.
In the course of implementation of such GARP e~periments as GATE and
"M~isson-77" ["Monsoon-77"] the Hydrometeorological Center performed the
functlons of a national coordinator j85, 104]. The USSR Hydrometeorolog-
ical Center participates with equal activity in the im~lementation of
the First Global Experiment.
In proceeding to studies in the field of hydrological forecasts, ~t must
- be noted that in the investigations of the last decade an impartant place
- is occupied by the development of mathematical models of formation of
- rain and melt runoff which is directed to the creation of inethods for
short-range forecasts of water discharges and levels of lowland and moun-
tain rivers realized with electronic computers. Such methods have been
developed for the prediction of discharges of rain-induc~ed high waters -
[54, 61] and predicting water inflow into Volga reservoirs during the
period of spring high water [36], as well as in computations of the run-
off of mountain rivers [89).
, During recent years work has been done on the development of a two-dimen- -
sional model of the formation of rain-induced high waters with use of the
equations for a kinematic wave [61, 69], as well as work for creating -
r~odels for continuous computations of water discharge du~ing'the course '
of the year j69]. The development of the latter models, taking into ac-
count all types of inflow, affords a possibility for continuous short-range
forecasts of discharges and levels or the inflow of water into reservoirs,
which is necessary for automatic systems for control of the water economy.
In the field of marine hydrological forecasts, during the last decade, in
addition to physical-statisticai methods, there has been development of a -
hydrodynami.c direction, which is headed by P. S. Lineykin. During recent
years hydrodynamic short-range forecasting methods have been developed
- for predicting dangerous levels in the White Sea, Baltic Sea, Sea of Azov,
Black Sea and Caspian Sea, the fields of currents and long-range forecasts
of thermal characteristics in the active layer of the ocean [42, 57, 58,
59, 60, 75, 76, 77, 90].
During the course of its entire history and at the pre~ent time the USSR _
liydrometeorological Center in the weather service has represented and rep-
resents, in essence, a scientific-production combine in which scientific
research work is very closely combined and intertwined with operational _
_ prognostic activity. Such a combir~ation has a favorable effect on the de-
velopment of scientific research, which has always been directed to the
solution of prognostic problems. In addition, the needs of prognostic "pro- _
duction" forced much money and personnel into the channel of creating _
automatic technological lines for the processing of information. For ex-
ample, there are now four: ASPD -"Minsk-32" for preparing actual weather
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charts (82), ASUD - M-222 - BESM-6 and ASPD -"Minsk-32" - BESM-6 for
computing prognostic charts (70); ASPD - YeS-1022 - YeS-1040 for the
accumulation of information for the First Global Experiment (level IIa).
On the other hand, only the possibility for the iapid use of the results _
of scientific research in operational work will enable the USSR Hydro-
meteorological Center to meet its present-day obligations for servicing
the national economy. Table 3 gives some idea about the volume of this
- work.
The following have particular economic importance:
warnings of dangerous and especially dangerous ph~nomena, as well as
specialized weather forecasts; incJ.uding for the Gas Pipelines Administra-
tion and for the Central Dispatcher Administration uf the Power Ministry;
agrometeorological forecasts of inean oblast yield of winter wheat and
rye, spring wheat and barley, corn, buckwheat, sunflower, s~xgar beets,
potatoes, fiber flax, sor,m and meadow grasses;
~ forecasts of the reserves of productive moisture in the soil, wintering _
and state of winter grain crops in spring;
hydrological forecasts of the water volume in rivers, water inflow into
res.ervoirs, opening-up and freezing-over of water bodies, maximum levels
and characteristic monthly levels;
forecasts of water temperature in seas and oceans, waves, freezing-over
and opening-up of nonarctic seas and navigation conditions in them, convoy-
ing of ships on recommended courses and a number of others.
Finally, all the information and prognostic activity of the weath~r ser-
vice and the USSR Hydrometeorological Center as i~s central link is asso-
ciated with the need for several times a day processing an enornous amount
of information, that is, is dependent on the possibilities of modern elec-
tronic computers and communication systems. The requirements on productiv- '
ity of electronic computers are beyond existing possibilities. The produc-
tivity and efficiency of electronic computers are now a key factor which
governs progress in our work. Accordingly, the technical outfitting of the
USSR Hydrometeorological Center always was and remains a highly important ~
_ cond:ition determining the level of our activity.
[dith the development of a socialist plannec: national economy the importance
of hydrometeorological and agrometeorological forecasts is continuing to
increase. Precisely for this reason in the Resolutions of the 25th Congress
CPSU it is stated, in particular, "...implement the further development
of inethods for forecasting weather and meteorological calamities." These ;
- iristructions have served as a basis for all the activity of the USSR Hy- ~
- drometeorological Center, whose personnel arrive at its SOth anniversary
full of creative forces and with an intense striving for performance of _
the tasks assigned by the Co~nunist Party and the Soviet gov2rn~ant. ~
~
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78. Pagava, S. T., "Principles of the Synopt.ic Method for Long-Range
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NOZOV POGODY (Principles of the Synoptic Method for Seasonal Weather
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83. Ped', D. A., Rudicheva, L. M., "Influence of the Duration of Persis-
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84. .Petrosyants, M. A., "The WeathPT c^^,i~o .,^a prospects of its Develop-
ment," PROBLEMY 50VREMENNOY GIDROMETEOROLOGII (Problems in Mo~~ern Hy-
drometeorology), Leningrad, 1977.
~
85. Petrosyants, M. A., "First Results of the Soviet 'TROPEKS-74' Expedi-
tion," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA, No 3, 1975.
, 86. Pogosyan, Kh. P., Taborovskiy, N. L., "Advective-Dynamic Principles of
Frontological Analysis," TRUDY TsIP, No 7(34), 1948.
87. Popov, Ye. G., VOPROSY TEORII I PRAKTIKI PROGNOZOV RECHNOGO STOKA (Prob-
lems in the Theory and Practice of Forecasts of River Runoff), Moscow,
Gidrometeoizdat, 1963.
25
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I
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
88. Pressman, D. Ya., "Six-Level Model for Short-Range Forecasting 'Js-
ing Full Equations," ANALIZ I PROGHOZ POGODY: TRUDY VSESOYUZNOY
KONFERENTSII MOLODYKH UCHENYKH GIDROMETSLUZHBY SSSR (Weather Analy-
sis and Forecast: Transactions of the All-Union Conference of Young
Scientists of the ~JSSR Hydrometeorological Service), 1971.
89. PROGNOZY RECHNOGO STOKA GORNYKH I RAVNINNYKH REY.. TRUDY GIDROMET-
TSENT)tA SSSR, No 163, 1976.
90. Resnyanskiy, Yu. D., "Parameterization of Integral Dissipation of
Turbulent Energy in the Upper Quasihomogeneous Layer of the Ocean," ~
- IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSF'ERY I OKEANA, Vol 11, No 7, 1975.
91. Sadokov, V. P., Shteynbok, B. D., "Use of Con~ugate Functions in the
Analysis and Forecasting of Temperature Anomalies," METEOROLOGIYA I
- GIDROLOGIYA, No 10, 1977.
92. Sadokov, V. P., Vazhnik, A. N., "Theoretical Model of Long-Range Fore-
casting of Averaged Meteorological Fields," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOG-
IYA, No 8, 1976.
93. SINOPTICHESKIYE SEZONY: TRUDY GIDROMETTSENTRA (Synoptic Seasons.
Transactions of the Hydremeteorological Center), Moscow, No 187,
197?.
94. Sonechkin, D. M., "Statistical Validation in Meteorology," TRUDY
GIDROMETTSENTRA SSSR, No 181, 1976.
95. Sonechkin, D. M., "Formulation of the Problem cf Dynamic-Stochastic
Forecasting by Analogues," TRUDY GIDROMETTSENTRA SSSR, No 181, 1976.
96. Taborovskiy, N. L., "Aydrodynamic Theory of a Baroclinic Atmosphere
and Fundamental Problems in Synoptic Meteorology," TRUDY NIU GUGMS,
Series II, No 26, 1947.
97. Ter-Mkrtchyan, M. P., Snitkovskiy, A. I., Lukianova, L. Ye., "Use
of Discriminant Analysis for Predicting Glaze," TRUDY GIDROMET-
TSENTRA SSSR, No 90, 1971.
98. Trosnikov, I. V., Yegorova, Ye. N., "Use of Latitude-Longitude Grids
for Modeling of General Circulation of the Atmosphere," TRUDY GIDRO-
METTSENTRA SSSR, No 145, 1974.
_ ~9. Trosnikov, I. V., Yegorova, Ye. N., "Use of Empirical Formulas for
Computing Radiation Influxes of Energy in the Modeling of GQneral
Circulation of the A*_mosphere," TRUDY GIDROMETTSENTRA SSSR, No 160,
1975.
,
26
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10U. W anova, Ye. S., METQDY AGROI~II:TF,OROLOGICHESKIKH PROGNOZOV (Metho3s ~
for Agrometeorological Forecasts), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat,
1959.
101. Uianova, Ye. S., AGROMETEOROLOGICHESKIYE USLOVIYA I UROZHAYNOST'
OZIMOY PSHENITSY (Agrometeorological Conditions and the Yield of Win-
ter Wheat), Leningrad, ~~idrometeoizdat, 1975.
102. Uspenskiy, B. D., "Prospects for the Development of the Synoptic
Method for Short-Range Weather Forecasting," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDRO-
LOGIYA, No 10, 1972.
103. Uspenskiy, B. D., Mertsalov, A. N., Orlova, Ye. M., Petrichenko,
I. A., "Peculiarities of the Forecasting of Precipitation in a -
Numerical Operational Synoptic-Hydrodynamic Model for a Time Up to
36 Hours," TRUDY GIDROMETTSENTRA SSSR, No 176, 1977.
104. Fal'kovich, A. I., DINAMIKA I ENERGETIKA VNUTRITROPICHESKOY ZONY
KONVERGENTSII (Dynamics and Energy of the Intertropical Convergence
_ Zone), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1979.
105. Khromov, S. P., "A Hundred Years of Our Weather Service," METEOROLOG-
IYA I GIDROLOGIYA, No 10, 1972.
27 �
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UDC 551.515.5
TROPOSPHERIC STRUCTURE UNDER TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS CONDITIONS -
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA i;~ Russian No 12, Dec 79 pp 22-32
[Article by Doctor of Geographical Sciences L. S. Minina and Ye. N. Arab-
ey, USSR Hydrometeorological Scientific Research Institute, submitted for
- publication 27 April 1979]
Ahstract: In the example of development of ty-
phoon "Carmen" during the period 10-16 August _
1978 the authQrs describe the peculiarities of
distribution of temperature and moisture con-
tent in the troposphere in an active process
of tropical cyclogenesis. The deviations of
the values of the meteorological elements from
the corresponding values in the standard atm~-
_ sphere are given as a comparison.
[Text] The second Soviet "Tayfun-78" expedition took place during the per-
iod July-November 1978 for studying tropical cyclones in the northwestern
part of the Pacific Ocean.
During the period 7-16 August the flagship of the expedition, the scien-
tific research ship "Academik Shirshov," as well as the weather ships =
"Priliv" and "Priboy," carried out hydrological investigations in the
region 22�N, 147�E, forming a small polygon in the form of a triangle
with a side of about two degrees.
The weather was relatively dry with few cl~uds. The ships were on the
southern periphery of a subtropical anticyclone where the pressure was
1014-1015 mb. However, already on 8 August an influence began to be felt
from the ICZ, moving from *he south; there was a decrease in pressure,
well-developed cumulu.~ clouds appeared; a shower passed and swell moved
from the southeast. On 9 August the swell increased: a new typhoon had _
developed near the polygon.
The expedition staff decided Lhat beginning at 1200 GMT on 10 August on
- all three ships there would be soundings four times a day. Using the
data from the scientific research ship "Akademik Shirshov," on which the
_ 2~ _
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authors of the article worked, there were computations and averaging of
the meteorological parameters of the troposphere during the initial per-
iod of tropical cyclogenesis for each of the five defined sounding groups
in different parts of the cyclone. The considered parameters included:
geopotential, wind, temperature~ vertical temperature gradient, moisture -
content (mixture ratio in g/kg), relative humidity. Using the values of
these same parameters for the standard atmosphere in July at 30�N we
computed their deviations at an early stage in development of "Carmen"
typhoon. In addition, we ascertained the principal differences between
the conditions in the troposphere in the considered parts of a tropical
cyclone.
Some general information on "Carmen" typhoon. "Carmen" typhoon, in the form
of a small depression, developed second in the series of tropical cy-
clones "Bonnie"-"Carmen"-"Della," generated during the first 10-day period
in August.
Initially, during the period 7-8 August, to the northeast of Guam, in the
ICZ region, an extensive cloud concentration could be traced. At the be-
~ ginning of 9 August a tropical depression (1006 mb) was formed in it. Its
development occurred very rapidly and already by the end of 10 August it
had passed into the stage of tropical storm "Carmen" (996 mb, 20 m/sec).
The cyclone remained relatively fixed in position, being situated near
' 17�N, 145�E. Its development led to descending air movements in its neigh-
borhood. As a result, the polygon was on the northern periphery of the
cyclone (Fig. la,b), where on 10 and 11 August almost cloudless weather
appeared. However, with deepening of the cyclone and its transition on
12 August to a stage of strong tropical storm there was an increase in
the central continuous cloud mass. Propagating to the north and simultan-
eously beginning slow movement toward the northwest, the tropical storm
on 12 August affected the region of drift of the vessels (Fig. lc). The
weather deteriorated sharply.
The "Carmen" cloud system had a main mass adjacent to the center of the
cyclone, with a diameter 5�latitude x 7�longitude and a tail convective
zone with a width from 3 to 5�, extending toward the south and southeast
(Fig, lc). The main cloud mass of the cyclone was situated primarily to
the north of its center, that is, to the right of the direction of move-
ment, and with slow movement to the northwest was propagated into the
polygon. As can be seen from the photographs, this was at the northeast
edge of the polygon. Beginning at ~000 hours on 13 August, with movement
of the cyclone in a westerly direction, the polygon was in its tail con-
vective zone (Fig. ld). Beginning on 14 August the vessels were under
the influence of the typhoon periphery and only on 16 August were outside
the sphere of its influence.
As a result, there was an average of 4-S soundings of the central contin-
uous cloud mass (CCCM) at a distance of 300-400 km from the center, the
tail convective zone (TCZ) (800 km from the center), its northern
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r�ux ur~r�lc;l.v, U5~ UNLY " -
i~~~ripl~~~ry (about 1,00~ km from the center), and also the Trades zone,
no~ direc:tly disturbed by the'typhoon.
~
~
;
1
. ,
~r
~ a
{p :
' 6. S
� " . :
J
~p. b . . .
d rf.ak._:
9^ ' ~
8::,
.~'_~i a.~~ -
s>.
y ~ i''.
( i ~t`~~-
k
c
. .
..z~
J.� 9w7. 1 _
.Kw
. v., .
_ . ~ , u , ~I ~
V
A . ~c .
f Se'~~~~ . , ~,y_ ~ ' , ~ ~.:%4k.
y,?~�~
. .q^~e~o~ '
f~' 4~:~W ~~w.. ` .
~,Ja
y ~s~
, ~~�a :
r ~ ~ ~ ~ ' .
~r
t
- Fig. l. Development of cloud system of "Carmen" tropical cyclone during
_ tlle period 10-12 August 1978 according to data from "Meteor-3" meteoro- '
lc>gical satellite (TV photographs) and position of "Akademik Shirshov" -
scientific research ship. At tim~e of photograph white or black tri-
, angle; relative position of scientific research ship 6 and 12 hours af-
ter pliotograph contour of triangle. a) tropical depression (17�N, 144�
E) at 0555 hours 10 August; b) "Carmen" tropical cyclone (16�N, 144�E)
_ at 0549 hours 11 August; c) strong tropical storm "Carmen" (16�N, 144�E)
at 0543 hours 12 August; d) typhoon "Carmen" (21�N, 140�E) at 2320 hours
12 August.
30 ~
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Table 1
Deviation of Temperature ~ T�C, Moisture Content ~ r g/kg and Degree of
Saturation of Air ~ U% in Central Continuous Cloud Mass (CCCM) "Carmen"
from Conditions in "Mean" Typhoon
~ ~Cpc;tttxH~ raii~yH 2 L~COM ~Kapr~e??~ 3 P23HOCTb ~
~
av T I r I U T I r I U AT ( Ar I ~U
a;
l00 I--7:i,41 I ~-71,9 ( I I 3,5 I (
- 5 Ypoecub rpononays~
' 150 -63,3 -64,5 ' -1,2
2U0 -48,6 -50,7 -2,1
2~U -36,3 -37,8 -1,3
300 -26,3 0,9 GO -27,5 1,1 S:3 -1,2 0,2 23 -
4U0 -12,3 2,5 65 -14,1 2,7 S3 -t,8 0,2 18
500 -2,4 5,0 76 -~,7 4,8 36 --2,3 -0,2 10
_ 600 4,8 7,2 8l 3,4 6,S 33 -1,4 -0,4 2
700 11,2 10,0 82 10,7 9,7 82 -0,5 --4,3 0
800 16,1 12,8 87 16,3 13,0 87 0,2 -f0,2 0
SSU 18,6 14,5 89 18,6 14,2 92 0 -0,3 3
900 21,0 16,0 89 21,0 16,7 ~4 0 0,7 5
1~~00 25,2 18,8 9l 27,0 20,5 37 ( 1,8 1,7 -4
Po ~5,2 18,8 91 27,6 20,5 86 I 2,4 1,7 -5
KEY:
l. Level, mb
2. "Mean" typhoon
3. CCCM "Carmen"
4. Difference
5. Tropopause level
Comparison of "Carmen" typhoon with "mean" typhoon. In order to clarify
how typical is the situation of the edge of a cloud mass of a developing
cyclone for the conditions of the typhoon itself it was convenient to
use the data published by Bell and Kar-Sing [1] on the distribution of
meteorological parameters in a"mean" typhoon. The latter we~~ obtained
as a result of a careful analysis of sounding data in 101 typhoons for
cases when the sounding was in the limits of 100 miles from the center. ~
The deviation of the mean values for temperature, moisture content and ~
degree of air saturation in typhoon "Carmen" (350 km from the center)
from the values for a"mean" typhoon is presented in Table 1. It can be
seen that in the lower near-water layer the temperature is 1.8-2.4�C
higher and the moisture content is ever greater by 1.7 g/kg than under
the conditions of a"mean" typhoon. The higher air temperature ir. the
near-water layer in the region of the "Akademik Shirshov" scientific -
research ship is attributable to the absence of heavy showers character-
istic for the inner parts of a well-developed tropical cyclone on the
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rux urrt~t[u, ua~ uNLz
northeast margin of the "Carnaen" cloud mass. During the daytime and night-
time on 12 August, although rain fell, its quantity did not exceed 0.1 mm.
This circumstance was an indirect indication of the onset of descending
movements characteristic of the margin of the cloud mass in a tropical
cyclone. In actuality, already in the next few hours the CCCM of the cy-
clone moved out of the polygon of the expeditionary ships (Fig. lc,d).
PHb~ mb T'C
' AKym~p ! II? . CA~e,~A -
c~C. - .
~ 1T '!0
~4~5
1S0
Z00 ~ d\~ /q/, \o, 1,5
\ -41
ZSO b
~ ~
J00 '~Q ~ , b J1 -
~ ,
j
~
~ ~ b ~s
400 ~ ~ ~ j ~
~ / -
~ ~ -6
S00
600 S 2
.
8, S
~ ~00 ~~b/b
~ ~ 1S -
B00 ~ ' 1B
900 f ~ L1
~ ' l7
f000 D 2B
po
~ -6 -y -Z 0 ? 4~ dT'C
Fig. 2. Profile of vertical distribution of temperature deviation ~ T�C
from standard atmosphere (SA). I) northeastern edge of central continuous
cloud mass; II) tail convective zone; III) eastern periphery; IV) north-
ern periphery; V) undisturbed Trades zone.
On this day the temperature of the surface water layer was about 28�C and -
the air temperature was 27.5�C. As a result, the air moisture content in
the near-water layer was increased, whereas saturation was close to the
limit, as in a"mean" typhoon. Aloft, to the level 850 mb, the conditions
in the developing cyclone "CarmEn" were virtually the same as in the
"mean" typhoon. From the 600-mb level to the tropopause the temperature at
the edge of the main mass of "Carmen" ~as only 1.2-2.3� lower, but the
moisture content was almost the same as in the "mean" typhoon. As a
. 32
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result of the lower temperature the relative humidity in this layer was -
even 10-23X greater.
According to Bell and Kar-Sing, in a"mean" typhoon the greateat lieating
of the troposphere is observed in the layer 600-200 mb. The deviation
from stsndard conditions in a"mean" typhoon, according to their comput-
ations il], attains 3-6`C. Accordingly, the increase in temperat~~re in
' this same layer on the periphery of "Carmen," being only 1.2-2.3�C
less, can be considered to correspond to the conditions of the "mean" _
typhoon. The fact is that Bell and Kar-Sing made use of sounding data
no more than 185 km (100 miles) from the center and sounding of the cloud
mass for "Carmen" was at a distance of 300-400 km from the center.
- Deviation of ineteorological parameters of the troposphere on the periphery
of "Carmen" from the standard atmosphere. For a clear representation of
the nature of tropospheric disturbance in different parts of a developing
- tropical cyclone, for each of the five considered groups we computed the
deviations of the meteorological elements from the standard atmosphere
_ for July at 30�N. For the isobaric surfaces we examined the deviations of
altitude, temperature, vertical gradient and parameters of humidity. Below
we will give the deviations of only the three latter parameters as being
the most clearly expressed. The temperature deviation ~ T from the stan-
- dard atmosphere in different par.ts of the developing cyclone "Carmen" and
in the Trades zone is given in Fig. 2. An analysis of the profiles, in
particular, reveals a predominance of positive values of the temperature
anomaly in almost the entire troposphere for all parts of the cyclone.
We note the presence of two maxima: strong in the layer 300-400 mb, that
- is, the heat nucleus of the cyclone, and poorly expressed near 700 mb. In
the boundary layer and below the tropopause ~ T was negative. The value
of the temperature anomaly was determined in the investigated part of the -
cyclone.
The main maximum of the positive anomaly ~ T in the middle troposphere in
- the region of the cyclone and on its periphery varies in the range from
1.5 to 4.5�.
The secondary maximum of the positive anomaly Q T, situated in the lower
troposphere, is small and in the cyclone region attains 2�C, whereas in
the Trades zone it attains 1�C.
A graphic spatial representation of the LaT anomaly and the vertical gradi-
ent ar in different parts of the developing tropical cyclone "Carmen"
is given by the vertical section (Fig. 3). Tfie section shows that in the
entire region of ttie tropical storm "Carmen" an extensive and quite intense
- Y~arm layer was formed in the middle troposphere. The greatest intensity
(+4.5�C) and vertic~l extent (50~-175 mb) of the warm region, having the
- form of a nucleus, is observed in the CCGM and TCZ. In the direction of
the cyclone periphery tfie warm layer drops down and is reduced in alti-
tude (450-300 mb) and intensity (to 1.5-2�C), hut it is traced very
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clearly. It also exists in thQ Trades zone (+1.4�C) between 500 and 400
mb. An unexpected finding was that in the TCZ the positive ~ T value in
the middle troposphere, as in the CCCM, has a maximum value and attains
3.5-4.5�C. Despite expectations, a considerable ~ T value, up to 2.5�C,
was also observed on the eastern periphery of "Carmen," and also up to
1.5�C on the northern periphery and even in the Trades zone, to the east
(by 1,700-1900 km) of the developing tropical cyclone. This fact is un-
- qustionably extremely important because it shows that during the period
of cyclogenesis in the ICZ region the tropical troposphere, even at a
_ great distance from it, is to some degree already prepared for tr~e for-
mation of the heat nucleus of a future cyclone. ~
Table 2
Blocking Layers (Numerator Number of Blocking Layers, Denominator
Number of Soundings) in "Carmen" Region and on its Closest Periphery
(from A. Tontoko)
IlapaHeTp~ sauepxcHearoutHx cnoeH
cpellHee
~Iacrr. vxcno
v;axnoxa' rpaxxqa, TonMC+Ha, , 3a~epxc.
1' cnoee s
1 M 3 4 soN,~xpoBa- S
' HNN
I ~ 2400 !85 0,18 2,0
II 4 2165 137 0,30 1,0
_ III 4 1870 150 0,25 1,2
_ IV 15 2237 227 0,09 2~0
' ~t 3 2815 217 0, l5 2,3
� Ycaosa~e o6osHa~eH~tR cM. xa pHC. 2.
KEY:
1. Part of cyclone
2. Parameters of blocking layers
- 3. Lower boundary, m
4. Thickness, m
5. Average number of blocking layers in sounding
6. For annotations see Fig. 2.
In accordance with the nature of the distribution is the distribution ~f
the anomaly of the vertical gradient 0; (Fig. 3). The first thing which
we note is that in the entire troposphere there is a predominance of the
~ negative anomaly ~ r. Accordingly, under conditions characteristic for a
typhoon in the troposphere there are layers with even a mcre ~table
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stratification than in the standard atmosphere. The regions of the two
greatest negative deviations (-Q.l, -0.2�C/100 m) are concentrated in
the layers 850-700 and 600-400 mb. The third region, characteristic only
for ti~e periphery of the cyclone, is under the tropopause.
The regions of the positive anomaly Q)'(to 0.15�C/100 m) were noted ir. the
near-water layer, somewhat above the 700-mh level and near 200 mb. The two
latter regions of the increased ~ y value are observed at the upper bour.-
_ dary of the layer with an increased temperature in the lower troposphere
and at the upper boundary of the warm nucleus i_n the middle troposphere
- of a developing cyclone.
The investigation of A. Tontoka, a Philippine specialist, working aboard
the ship, demonstrated that in the lower half of the troposphere in the
"Carmen" region there are several blocking layers witlt a thickness of
140-230 m(Table 2). More frequently the lower layer was situated near
900 mb; there was a second near 700 ffib. Even in the CCCM it was possible
- to trace blocking layers at an altitude of about 2.5 km k~ith a mean thick-
- ness of the layer 185 m and a mean gradient 0.18�C/100 m. It is interest-
ing to note that in the TCZ there is a minimum number of blocking layers
(on the average, one per ascent) and a minimum thickness of the layer
137 m, with a maximum vertical gradient, whose mean value is 0.30�C/100
m. It is characteristic that the most intense blocking layers (mean gra-
dient 0.09�C/100 m and the greatest mean thickness of the layer 227 m)
~!c~re observed on the northern periphery of "Carmen~" reflecting the pr~s-
ence of descending air movements here.
Sounding of the developing tropical cyclone "Carmen" with increased fre-
quency was carried out on the northern edge of the CCCi4 at a distance of
300-400 km from its center. Ho~~ever, as we see, at this great distance
- the heating of the middle troposphere in the storm stage was felt signif-
icantly. It can be postu'lated that near the very center of "Carmen" it
attained a considerably greater value. For example, sounding data in the
eye of the typhoons "Alice" (1961) and "Shirley" (1968) revealed a tem-
Perature exc_ess relative to the mean (computed for September in tl~e
northwestern parr of the Pacific Ocean) at 8 and 10�C r~spectively [1]. _
In hurricane "Hild3, model 1, q= 0.06 ppm;
- 2) same, only for initial approximation q~ 0.18 pgm; 3) relative error in
reconstructing profile of NZp content, j= 23->24, q= 0.25 ppm; 4) same,
only for initial approximation q= 0.25 ppm; 4) same, only for initial ap-
_ proximation q = 0.025 ppm.
Figure 2 presents the relative errors (relative to the true qi(s) profiles)
in reconstructing qN20(s) and q~p(s) (model 1) when using measurements in
the absorption lines j= 23--i 2~+ and j= 2--~ 3 respectively and two different
initial approximations qi(s). The figure shows that the maximum errors in
reconstruction can attain appro~,imately 8% for N20 (hp = 3~-35 km) and 4X
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- for CO (h~ = 40 km). The mean reconstruction errors for all hp are about 4.1
and 0.7% respectively. The result indicates a quite good condit~onality of
the linear system (6). The figure shows also that the change in the initial
approximation to a 100% solution exerts little influence on the limiting
accuracy of the method.
"Real" accuracy of the indirect method. For a quantitative characterization -
o` the accuracy in reconstructing the profiles of small gas components we
then use a sample mean square relative error ~(z) computed using the for-
mula � o (z) _
tu (10)
iu
~ [a~~~T _ y! ~z~~~
r-t _
_ ~QH~T ~z~~~ ~ _
[ ~1 CT = true ] ~
' where qtrue~z) and qrec~Z~ are the truP and reconstructed values of the mix-
ing ratio of the sought-for gas at the altitude z(~, is the number of the
random error record). The reconstruction accuracy characteristics cited
, below were obtained when using measurements of transparency for the level
of random measurement errors c*P = 0.01, and when using measurements of -
thermal radiation for the level of random measurement errors ~ T~ 2 K and
systematic errors in excluding the influence of temperature of about 2�10-3
aF transparency.
~ Figure 3 shows the dependences b(z) with the aoove-mentioned measurement ~
error for different conditions of numerical experiments. A common peculiar-
~ ity in the behavior of all the ~(z) curves is an appreciable increase in -
tt-~~ error in reconstruction when z~ 30 km. Whereas in the altitude range
5-30 km the relative errors for the most part are 10-30%, when z~ 30 km
they can attain 50 or more percent. This phenomenon is caused by a rapid .
increase in atmospheric transparency with an increase in hq and thereby a
- decrease in the relative accuracy of ineasurements. An increase in the accur-
acy of reconstruction can be attained by an increase in spectral resolution
- ar the use of stronger absorption linas. For example, transition from the
CO line j= 2-i3 to the stronger line 10-i ll makes it possible to in-~
crease the accuracy apprecialily (compare curves 2 and 4) and reconstruct
the CO content when z> 15 km.
Camparison of curves 1 and 4 makes it possible to analyze the accuracy of
the method in dependence on the type of sought-for profile. It fallows
from a comparisori of the data in Fig. 3(curves 1 and 4) that the relative
i
errors in reconstructing the altitude-variable CO profile (model 2) can be
several times greater than for the constant profile (model 1). This pheno-
menon was caused, in particular, by the considerably lesser absorption val-
ues in model 2(compare models 1 and 2) and an increase in the relative
- measurement error.
' S8
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�N '
.
4 , i J-~ 100x -
i i
i .
~ . J.~''.
~ ~ ~~t� ~r~,~" -
~ ~ ~f rr
. ~ t
~
_ z0 ; ~
~
i ~y~'~~
; i -
I ~
c ' '
- 10 30 50 70 90X
Fig. 3. Mean square errors in reconstructing (X) vertical profiles of CO
- and N20 content.
Influence on method accuracy due to temperature dependence A~T) and absorp-
' tion by wings of the H20 and 03 lines. The temperature dependence of the -
kernels of the linearized equation (6) was governed by the dependence of
the intensity and fialf-widths of the lines on temperature. Evaluations of
the influence of the dependence A(T) on accuracy of solution of the in- -
verse problem show that evQn in a case when the kernels are computed us-
ing temperature profiles corresponding to another season, the mean char-
acteristics of accuracy in reconstruction change by only several percent.
It is easy to avoid this worsening of accuracy by using inf~rmation on
T(z) present, for example, in measurements of radiation in the oxygen line.
On the basis of the results of solution of the direct problem [19] it can -
also be shown that when hp 3 20 km the absorption of radiation by the wings
of the water vapor and ozone lines can be taken into account with sufficient
accuracy on the basis of inean climatic data. With lesser ray perigee alti-
tudes there must be more complete information on the H20 and 03 content,
which can be obtained with simultaneous measurements of transparency or
thermal radiation in the corresponding absorption lines.
Summary. 1. In this paper we have proposed and investigated a method for
obtaining the atmospheric transmission values for the entire path of for-
raation of radiation from measurements of outgoing radiation in slant di-
. rections. It is shown that in the ma3ority of cases with hp ~ 10 km the
accuracy of this method is 10-3-10'2 of the transmission values.
2. The limiting accuracy in reconstructing the profiles of content of N20
. and CO in the case uf a spectral resolution Qv = 20 MHz is quite high in
the considered experiments. The mean errors in reconstruction for the CO
line j= 2--~ 3 are 0. 7X and for the N20 line 3~ 23-+�24 4.1X in the al-
titude range 5-45 km.
59
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3. With errors in measuring atmospheric transparency of 1%, which is
equivalenttothe errors in measuring outgoing radiation of 2 K, the accur-
acy in determining the content of CO and N20 is: CO 15-20% in the re-
gion of altitudes 5-35 km = 10-+11, model 2), N20 10-30y in this same
altitude range (j = 23 i 24). When using the transition 2-i 3 for recon-
structing CO the reconstruction errors in the case hp a 15 l~ exceed 50%.
4. Allowance for the temperature dependence of the kernels of the corre~-
ponding integral equation, and also absorption in the wings of the H20 and _
03 lines is possible with hp > 20 km without a loss in accuracy on the basis
of climatological data. In the case of lesser altitudes hp it is necessary
to have more precise information which can be obtained on the basis of ad-
ditional measurements of transparency or thermal radiation in the corres-
ponding absorption lines.
The cited results indicate a need for further study of the possibilities of
using the microwave range for determining the characteristics of atmospheric
composition and in particular, an examination of the instrumental possibil-
ities of satellite measurements of transparency and thermal radiation for
the considered measurement scheme.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Basharinov, A. Ye., Gurvich, A. S., Yegorov, S. T., RADIOIZLUCHENIYE
ZEMLI KAK PLANETY (The Earth's Radioemission as a Planet), Moscow,
Nauka, 1974.
2. Voronov, V. M., Kislyakov, A. G., Kukina, E. P., "Content of CO and
N20 in the Earth's Atmosphere from Observations of Their Rotational
- Spectral Lines," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA (News of
the US9R Academy of Sciences, Physics of the Atmosphere and Ocean),
Vol 8, No 1, 1972.
3. Gurvich, A. S., Demin, V. V., "Determination of the Total Moisture Con-
tent in the Atmosphere According to Measurements on the Artificial
Earth Satellite 'Cosmos-243'," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA
(News of the USSR Academy of Sciences)(Physics of the Atmosphere and '
Ocean), Vol 6, No 8, 1970.
4. Yershov, A. T., Lebskiy, Yu. V., Naumc~v, A. P., Plechkov, V. M., "De-
termination of the Vertical Temperature Profile from Ground Measure-
ments of Terrestrial Radiation in the Region 5 mm," IZV. AN SSSR,
FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol 11, No 12, 1975.
5. Kondrat'yev, K. Ya., Timofeyev, Yu. M., TERMICHESKOYE ZONDIROVANIYE
ATMOSFERY SO SPUTNIKOV (Thermal Sounding of the Atmosphere from Sat-
ellites), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1970.
6. Kondrat'yev, K. Ya., Rabinovich, Yu. I., Timofeyev, Yu. M., Shul~gina,
Ye. M., MIKROVOINOVOYE DISTANTSIONNOYE ZONDIROVANIYE OKRUZHAYUSHCHEY
SREDY (Microwave Remote Sounding of the Environment), Obninsk, 1975. -
7. Naumov, A. P., "Absorption of Radio Waves in the Earth's Atm~sphere '
by Admixture Gases," IZV. WZOV, RADIOFIZIKA (News of Colleges,
Radiophysics), Vol 25, No 5, 1972.
8. Rozanov, V. V., Timofeyev, Yu. M., "Possibili.ties of Determining the
Content of Small Gas Components in the Atmosphere from Satellites,"
METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology and Hydrology), No 11, 1974.
9. Rozanov, V. V., Timofeyev, Yu. M., "Possibilities of Determining the
Content of N20 and CH4 in the Atmosphere on the Basis of Interpreta-
tions of Measurements of the Spectral-Angular Structure of Thermal
Radiation," IZV AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol 11, No 10,
1975.
- 10. Townes, Ch., Shavlov, L., RADIOSPEKTROSKOPIYA (Radiospectroscopy),
Moscow, IL, 1959.
11. Timofeyev, Yu. M., Rozanov, V. V., "Use of Measurements of Outgoing
Thermal Radiation for Determining the Vertical Profiles of Small Gas
Components in the Atmosphere," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA,
Vol 12, No 9, 1976.
61
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~ 12. Ludwig, C. B., Griggs, M., Malkus, W., Bartle, E. R., Measurement of
Air Pollutants from Satellites. I. Feasibility Considerations," APPL.
OPTICS, Vol 13, No 6, 1974.
13. Goldman, A., Murcray, D. G., Murcray, F. H., Williams, W. J., "Balloon-
Borne Infrared Measurements of the Distribution of N20 in the Atmo-
sphere," J. OPT. SOC. AMER., Vol 63, No 7, 1973.
14. Isakson, I. A., "The Production and Distribution of Nitrogen Oxides in ~
the Lower Stratosphere," PURE AND APPL. GEOPHYS., Vol 106-108, 1973.
15. Junge, C. E., "The Cycle of Atmospheric Gase$ Natural and Man-Made,"
QUART. J. ROY. METEOROL. SOC., Vol 96, No 413, 1972.
16. McClatchey, R. A., Benedict, W. S., Glough, S. A., "Atmospheric Absorp-
tion Line Parameters Compilation," AFCRL-TR-75-0096, 26 June 1973, ENV.
RES. PAPER, No 434.
17. McCZatchey, R. A., Fenn, R. W., Salby, V. E., "Optical Properties of
the Atmosphere (Third Edition)," AFCRL-72-0497, 24 Aug 1972, ENV. RES.
PAPER No 411.
18. Simubakuro, F. I., Smith, P. L., Wilson, W. J., "Estimation of the
Ozone Distribution from Measurement of Millimeter Wavelength Absorp-
tion," JGR, Vol 80, No 21, 1975.
19. Timofeyev, Yu. M., Rozanov, V. V., USE OF THE INFRARED MICROWAVE RADI-
ATION FOR nETERMINING THE CONTENT OF MINOR GASEOUS CONSTITUENTS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. RADIATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE, Leningrad University Press,
_ Leningrad, 1976.
20. Waters, J. W., Kunzi, K. F., Pettyjohn, R. L., Poon, K. L., Sta~elin,
D. H., "Remote Sensing of Atmospheric Temperature Profiles With the
Nimbus-5 Microwave Spectrometer," J. ATMOS. SCI., Vol 32, No 10, ~975.
21. Whitten, R, C., Sims, J. S., Turco, R. P., "A Model of Carbon Com-
pounds in the Stratosphere and Mesospherer" JGR, Vol 78, No 24, 1973.
62
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UDC 551.551.8
CHARACTERI~TICS OF ERCEEDING OF A STIPULATED CONCEAiTRATION LEVEL
IN A STATIONARY .TET
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 12, Dec 79 pp 49-56
- [Article by 0. I. Vozzhennikov, Institute of Experimental Meteorology, sub-
mitted for publication 20 April 1979]
Abstract: On the basis of a statistical model
of a Laykhtman-Gifford jet the author has de-
rived expressions fo~ computing the frequency
and mean duration of discharges of a concentra-
tion above a stipulated level at a fixe3 point in
space. Methods for computing the parameters en-
tering into these eapressions are given.
[Text] At the present time one can hardly dispute the fact that the decis-
ive influence of harmful substances on the organisms of living creatures
and plants is exerted not so much by the mean background of the concentra-
tion of an impurity as by the presence of high (exceeding the maximum ad- _
missible concentration by several times) concentrations whose lifetime
r.?ay be short in compa.rison with the observation time. In this connection
the study of the spatial and temporal scales of fluctuations of the impur-
ity is an important and timely problem. Unfortunately, in modern models
of atmospheric contamination by industrial sources rather little attention
is being devoted to allowance for fluctuations. The latter can be attribut-
ed both to the small n~ber of theoretical studies devoted to this problem
and the absence of reliable experimental data obtained under natural con-
- ditions.
In this article we propose a method for computing the number of exceedings
of a stipulated level and the mean duration of the excess on the basis of
the Gifford statistical model of a jet (Z].
- Formulation of Problem
- We will examine a stationary jet from a point source in the surface layer
- of the atmosphere. We will assume that fluctuations of the concentration
of impurity in ttie ~et sre caused by transverse (relative to the directions
63
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of the mean wind) random oscillations of the j et axis. (Such random os-
cillations of the jet are frequently called meandering.) These random os-
cillations of the jet axis arise under the influence of turbulent eddies
' whose scales are comparable in magnitude with the characteristic width of
the jet or are much greater than it. Due to the contir.uity of the turbu-
lence spectrum in the atmosphere ths meandering phenomenon will occur un-
til the width of the jet exceeds the turbulence scale. In the latter case -
turbulence can be characterized by a single length scale the turbulence
scale, that is, a so-called diffusion regime sets in which is usually de-
i scribed by the semiempirical theory of turbulent diffusion.
As noted above, here we will examine only the transverse fluctuations of
the jet axis in the horizontal plane. In actuality, if the sourc2 is a
surface source or dirfusion times t~ H/u* are considered (u* is dynamic
vel.ocity, H is source altitude), as a resulr. of the fact that the vertical
dimensions of the eddies are limited by the distance to the earth's sur-
face, the vertical meandering of the jet can be neglected. The problem
of making an allowance for transverse fluctuations of the jet axis also
- arises for the integral of the concentration along the vertical axis,
since under natural conditions the study of the propagation of an impurity
- in a transvers~ direction is accomplished by photographing the jet from
above wi~h the use of flightcraft. We will also assume that the diffusion
of the impurity along the vertical coordinate z and the transverse coor- _
dinate y occurs independently; we will neg~.ect diffusion along the wind
direct~on in comparison with advective tran:;fer. 4Jith these assumptions,
in accordance with the Laykhtman [3] and Gifford jet models, the distrib-
ution of instantaneous concentration assumes the form
(y-~y)' (1)
% _ %Z (2 "ER V~) exp f - 2 ' '
l. R
where xZ(x, z) is the distribution of the mean concentration from a sta-
- tionary linear source, ~ R is the dispersion of coordinates of particles =
relative to the center of gravity of the jet, Vmean ~V~) is the mean velo-
c~ty of transfer of matter, Dy is the distance from the center of gravi.ty
of the jet to the x�:tiis.
� On the assumption that x is a stationary random process, the foxmula for
the mean frequency of exceedings ^,f some fixed level c X, has the form [5] -
~
- N~~X) X wz x~~x~ X) d X, ( 2)
where W 2~( x,~) is the two-dimensional probability of the ~ process and ~
- its time derivative j~ at the coinciding moments in time.
Thus, computations of the frequency of exceeding of the level of the ~L pro-
cesses can be carried out if the function w2 x('C,j~) is known.
i
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, Derivation of Fundamental Formulas
The two-dimensional probability density w2x ts obtained most simply if
we stipulate the normal distribution of the random function Dy(t) which,
- as a result of (1), will also be s[ationary. It is easy to show [5] that _
the ~oint probability density of the processes Dy and Dy constitutes a
_ two-dimensional normal density:
2
zm2D(Dy, Dy) _(2 TEoEo)-~ eXp _ 2~D - 2~ ~ ~3) -
D -
where ~ D, E n is the dispersion of coordinates of the jet aais and their
time derivative respectively. '
Using the formula for the transformation of probabilities for functional-
ly related values, the density w2~C.(7~, is easily expressed through
the joint probability density w2 D(Dy, Dy): -
dv `II/ d`~ ` ~ (4)
~2 x~X~ X) = w2 p(~P ~X), dx ~l\ dx) ~
- ~
where the function is determined by the expression
~~i
E -21n Xo , (5)
~-y'~ R I
and ~ .
%o = y2
~s ~g V~
+~z o Y-4- ER 1/ - 2 In x, ER Y d~ z
xo ~ x ~ '
[c = mean] X y-2 ln Xo
The inverse (1) transform ~5) is two-valued and therefore the joint dis-
tribution x, j~ at rhe coinciding moments in time is the sum of the den-
sities , x
' ~z x~Y.~ X) = wz o y- ER Y- 2 ln ~o ER -4-
x -21n x ~6~
_ xo
Substituting (6) into (2), after simple but unwieldy computations with the _
use of (3) we finally obtain:
_ y'
N- -Ro (0) e 2�o r c l~ c
- l xo 1 ch (2 m l~ In xa cx u ~ m ~ m b ~
~ ~d o 0o m~ r+ ~o a~ d c~ ao
,i ~ ~n a+ .C ~ ~ o ~ N -~I p~
q ~U a.r cd Rf o w rl rl ~ ~ ~0
pI O N cO ~~rl I+ F3 L~ 1~ cd G) rl ~ 3~
a~ a v a~ 3 m a.? ~ o cd D a~ o0
a o r+ a m ~ ~ ~ ~ w
O ri U tA O :-I 4! ~ a~ rl O A d
~ Vl C! f-~ 'b �rl O DO O r-I ~G
C/] ~ 'Ly ~ U ~ .C1 G) .G ~ d1 W ~ � ~
4~ a.t Q~ c3 Cl m O tA t0 Gl
3-i O .1".+ f.' ~ 'd C.' rl cd N (l) 'd
O 00 ~O O dl G ~ N.C 3 3 i~+ N ttf ~
w uo ~ u a.+ c~ a o o~ m oo
U ~ ~L f-I ~ ~ Q~ `r~ Q) '1'~ w ~1 ~ ~
TI ~1 Q) r7 47 `rl L C~+ 3 C~+ 00 N
Fq ~J ~ ~ t~ ~rl r-I c0 ~ O F+ rl ~ N '
C: u1 U! r-I Rf v'y, +-I r~ rl Cl .C O tA
v �r~ Gl 3 r'~ r~ ~ 'r1 ..r. ~ J-1 J.J 11 ~ ~j � w
F+ ,C J~ ~ UJ 00 J~ ~.1 p tb N N
~ u ~ ~ o ~ w ~ g o~~o a~i ~ ~ ~ v c~o
C u g o~ 3 a~ o u eo ~ 3 ~ a~i ~ ?w+
~ ~ m b~ q .,~a~i~> ~ ~ ~
~ ~d 3 ~o a~ l a~ o o m a~ 3 3 3 ~
~ w ~ ~ "i c~d ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~5 ~ s�a ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -
07 G'+ N.0. ~A 00 W 3 FI In ~ .'7 0
O 4a a1 U rl GJ 'U ~~d t~ ~.1 1.~ H
U 3! p. 00 r-I 4-~ .~L 4a GL N ~ ~ 00
G O~ G O~ G1 O U tb cd cq ~
m o a~ ,-a o ,-i o o r+ a a a a~
m ~ ~ m ~-I w ~ ~ c0 7
~ a1 ~ ~ al cA �f o 00 O 3+ ~-i r-i .-1 O
q cd 4+ g q v a.~ .C 3a ~ W cd cd
00 T7 O Gl T7 N~ iJ Cl 001~ i-i i+ 3~1 ',a~
00 ~ a~ ~ ~ 3 0 ~ D ~d ~ ~ ~ ~
~ ~ ~ ~ u~ cd ro .0 3 0 c+~d c~a d
r~ F-+ cn a o z z x a
103
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_ j - L~A �
v
tp
(9)
Table 2
Maximum Coefficients of R~inoff from Showers ( OL~x) in Dependence on Layer
of Precipitation, ~iegetation, Soi1s and Their Working Systems
With Surface Slope of 9�
Heo6pa6ar~aaen~we OGpa6ardeae~~e
3 CKJIOHLI CK110Hh1
1 C}~T04H61i1
~04e~ c.no~i peAxax cpel[xAx ~
oca,zxon, rpaaa, xyc- rpaea, xyc- naxora naxoTa
M.~ zapxHx xa TapHiix Ha snona nonepex
- nnovtaAx nnoucaAN cx.~oaa cxnotia
2 ,~0 50% Gonee 50~ 6 ~ $
9 Cynecvax~te 1 uo 80 0,50 0,40 0,25 0,20
80-100 0,55 0,44 0,28 0,23
l00-120 0,60 0,48 0,31 0,26
120-150 0,65 0,52 0,34 0,29
> 150 0,70 U,55 0,35 0,30
CyrnjiHHCr~e 2 Ao ~0 0,60 0,50 U,35 0,30
10 80-100 0,65 0,54 0,39 0,33
100-120 0,70 0,58 0,43 0,36
_ 120-150 0,75 0,62 0,47 0,39
> 150 0,80 0,65 0,50 0,40
11 rnFiHFicre~e ,~0 80 0,70 0,60 0,45 0,40
80-]00 0,75 0,64 0,48 0,43
100-120 0,80 0,63 0,51 0,46
120-150 0,85 0,72 0,54 0,49 '
> 150 0,90 0,T5 0,55 0,50 -
KEY :
l. Soils 7. Plowing along slope
_ 2. Daily precipitation layer, mm 8. Plowinq across slope
3. Unworkable slopes 9. Sandy loam
4. Worlcable slopes 10. Clayey loam
5. Thin grass, scrub over area up to 50% 11. Clayey
6. Interm,ediate grass, scrub over area 12. up to
up to 50%
For the purpose of more precise determination of the runoff coefficients,
the roughness coefficients and rates of water runoff for different sur-
faces and slopas the specialists of the Ukrainian Scientific Research Inst-
itute of Hydroengineering and Melioration during 1969-1975 carried out
special experiments in extengive runoff areas (up to 2,000 m2) with dif-
ferent soil fertility with different slopes with t-ae assi3tance of arti-
ficial sprinkling. The great extents of the area~, made it possible to bring ;
the artificial conditions for the formation of r moff closer to natural
conditions to a far greater degree than was the case up to this time in
the USSR and made it possible to use these data for more precise determin-
ation of the run~ff coefficients, roughness coefficients for the surfaces
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~
of slopes and the rates of water runoff in dependence on slopes, methods
for worlcing t}ie soil and the vegetation on slopes for small areas of
cir:iln,i};~~ bilHltl3 rind mukc~ a more preciec~ determinetion of the viiluea of
tl�~ ~~tli~~r p 6 > Ne .
q enpea min
' ~ TTpeti = lim] "
P ~
D
= h~ , / ~
Q~ . 6~ C -
_ E j
P6 ~
;
~ r ~ ~ ~
B ~
, . B~ 'j' .
e~ H' \ ' Be t'
~ ~ ~ r~~
H ' ~ \ H(9s~) ; ' ~
~Hnpea~B
n~re8) ; i
lim ' ~
;
. ~ . , -
. ~
, ~ .
� ` -
. ~
, �
. ~ . _
,
, ~ ,
i ~
, .
y~BEmin~~
~ I ~ B
i ' A~ .
.
- p in p~ Bemu, Ben~.e Be~ . Be ~ Bi ~
lim
- Fig, l. Dependence uf H(a), Q e and e~(b) on pressure.
It is easy to show that such Be lim~ satisfying condition (15), also ex-
ists uniquely. 1'his follows from the monotonic dependence between ~e and
11 = cP T+ Lq, s ince
: ~
16)
9~ p� 1 T~1 1" ~p
Tl = ~P ( p~ I~`(cp T-f- L9) ~ ~P ~ p� (
~ 1 l J
Thus, H(e )>Ei(e )>H(e
eA e e min) for alI p. Fig. la schematically sho~s:
H, corresponding to ee, H( eeA~ ~ H~ ee min) �
~ 134
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We ~ise the notation _
p~~
- F J' K~e�~ ~p�
-
[H=in; B=B]
Then p�
P~~
Fi H(H~A) dp~F, F~ = f H~eem~n~ ~p < F.
Ps and ps
It therefore follows that there is such an ee lim betweeu ee min and
ee A at which
Px Px
.1 H ~ee~PeA ~ dp - ~ NnpeA Qp = F. (17)
Pe Pe
[H = in; B= B; npel.~ = lim(it) }
Hlim is shown schematically in Fig. 1. The areas beneath the H and H1~
curves it? Fig. la are equal. There are two unknown values in (17) : ee lim
and pg. An additional condition for finding both these values is ee lim
= Qe {p = pB) . The Hlim' ~e lim and pB values are easy to find by an iter-
ation method.
_ We note that condition (14) can cease to be satisfied even before the ee lim
value is attained because a change in ee leads to a change in ee and ac-
~ cordingly also the E1 and E2 values in (12)-(13).
In the prop~sed algorithm ee changes, gradually after several intervals ap-
proaching Be lim ~In this case H tends to Hlim~� In each interval we check e
the satisfaction of condition (14). If it is satisfied, th. next interval
(step) is used. If the inequality (14) is impaired in some interval, the
resulting profile Be is considered final and MCA ceases.
Each interval from ee tO e e lim ~or H to Hlim) must be taken with satis-
~ faction ef condition (8).
The intermediate Hi values in the i-th interval can be determined using the
formula _
_ H~ _ (1 - at) H �t H~P~4 ~ ~ 1~~ '
~ [ TTpeLI = lim] where 0