JPRS ID: 8716 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA REPORT

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APPROVE~ FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-R~P82-00850R000'100'100025-2 ~ ~ ~ ;C _ : s ~ ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007102/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY JFRS L/8716 17 October 1979 , ~u~b-Saharc~n Africa Re ort p FOUO No. 651 FBI$ FORIEIGN B~OADCAST INFORMATION SERVICE FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 NOTE JPRS publications contai.n information primarily from foreign newspapers, periodicals and books, but also from news agency _ transmissions and broadcasts. Materials from foreign-language . sources are translated; those from English-language sources are transcribed or reprinted, with the original phrasin.g and _ other characteristics retained. + Headlines, editorial reports, and material enclosed in brackets are supplied by JPRS. Processing in~icators such as [Text) or [Excerpt] in the first line of each item, or following the last line of a brief, indicate how the original information was ` processed. Where no processing indicator is given, the infor- . mation was summarized or extracted. Unfamiliar names rendered phonetically or transliterated are enclosed in parentheses. Taords or names preceded by a ques- tion mark and enclosed in parentheses were not clear in the original but have been supplied as appropriate in context. Other unattributed parenthetical notes within the body of an item originate with the source. Times within items are as given by source. The conter.ts of =his publication in no way represent the poli- cies, views or attitudes of the U.S. Government. For further info,.rmation on report content call (703) 351-2a33 (Near East); 351-2501 (Iran, Afghanistan); 351-3165 (North Africa). ~ COPYRIGHT LAWS AND REGULATIONS GOVERNING OWNERSHIP OF MATERIALS REPRODUCED HEREIN REQUIRE THAT DISSEMINATION _ OF THIS PUBLICATION BE RESTRICTED FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY. APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFTCIAL USE ONLY JPRS L/8716 17 October 1979 Sl1B-SAHARAN AFRI CA REPORT - FOUO No. 651 CONTENTS PAGE INTER-AFRICAN AFFAIRS ~ Ja~anese Trade With Africa Detailed (MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRAIV~ENS, 7 Sep 79)..... 1 ~ Japan 1979: Economic Situation Foreign Trade With Africa, by Jacques Clere Transportation Outlook for 1978-1988 Discussed (MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRAI~EENS, 24 Aug 79)..... 1? Briefs GDR Expeditionary Forces 26 BENIN Stability, Good Management Contribute to Progress (Philippe Simonet; JEUNE AFRIQUE, 12 Sep 79)......... 27 - Briefs Student Unrest - "`~31 CFiE1D Points Included in Lagos Agreement (MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS, 31 Aug 79)..... 32 Lagos Agreement Viewed as Moderately Hopeful (Editorial; MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS, 31 Aug 79) 34 - a - [III - NE & A - 120 FOUO] _ \1 ~ . FOR OFFICIAL U5.E .~~?T_.y APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CONTENTS (~ontinued) Page EQUATORIAL GUINEA Some Mysteries Still Remaining Concerning Coup (Pierre Gardel; JEUNE AFRIQUE, 29 Aug 79)............ 38 ~ I Teodoro Nguema's Political Ideas Said To Be Unkno~.-n ~ (Pierre Gardel; JEUNE AFRIQUE, 29 Aug 79)............ 40 ~ Africa Loses One More Dictator ~ I (Hamza Kaidi; JEUNE AFRIQUE, 15 Aug 79) 42 i MADAGASCAR I Briefs Military Agricultural Operation 45 Soviet Equipment Specialists 45 RHODE SIA Lifestyle of Whites Changed (JEUNE AFRIQUE, 12 Sep 79) 46 ~ SOMALIA WSLF Leader Discusses Ogaden Liberation Struggle ' (:Abudulahi Hassan Mohamud Interview; ASAHI : SHIMBUN, 24 Sep 79) 49 ~ i i ~ 4 ~ ~ _ i - b - ~ i FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ; i i APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OL'FICIAL USE ONLY INTER-AFRICAN AFFAIRS JAPANESE TRADE WITH AFRICA DETAII,EI) Japan 1979: Economic Sitization Paris MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS in French 7 Sep 79 p 2~29 [Article: "Japan 1979: Economic Growth Continues, Slight Inflation, Very ModeratE Unemployment"] Text] In 1979, with a very moderate rate of' unemployment (less than _ 00,000 unemployed), a price increase held down to approximately 6 percent and a growth rate also on the order of 6 percent, Japan offers an enviable example of stability and economic competitiveness, even though the latest (23 July) increase of the discount rate to 5.25 percent by the Eank of Japan indicates a recent inflationary thrust which may be difficult to contain in ' view of the new gasoline price hikes. ~ However, in 1974~, at the beginning of the crisis, when its unsettled economy seemed destined on a long term basis to deflation and regression, Japan was considered the big loser by the "bookmakers" of the economy. As the JOURNAL DE GENEVE (issues of 13, 1W~ 15 and 16 July~ noted recently - in a series of articles on the "new Japanese chal~.enge," today the Japanese are once again being visitedf spied upon an.d questioned by a great ma,ny experts and officials of a11 kinds who are trying to understand the workings of an astonishing system, where the rigidity of the social structures acco- modate themselves to a very great economic adaptability. In 197~, the yeax when the rate of inflation in Japan reached the alarming figure of 30 per- ce~t, many observers thought that the decline of Japan had just begun. The economic situation which was still depressive in 1975 and during the first half of 1976, confirmed the pessimistic diagnosis of the future of Japan. But the most leaxned forecasts could not withstand the test.of the facts. Today, more than ever victorious, the Japanese econom;~ is ready for a com- mitment. Better yet, ~he vast Japanese industrial empire has pr~fited from the cri~is to further improve its ability to ad.apt. By what methods did the Japanese manage to overcome the 197~-i975 crisis? Essentia.lly, ~~byr integrating into their actions the corrective measures imposed by the constraints produced by the enexgy crisis." 1 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ i APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOk OFFICIAL USE ONLY ' Thus~ in a very short time they restored a high growth rate, an assurance ~ of a~high level of investment. Faced with the crucial problem of the secu- rity of their supplies of mineral and energy raw materials, they succeeded in record time in diversifying their purchases so as to better protect them , against the threat. of shortages. In tk~is gigantic effort of recovery and adaptation, the ro~e of the MITI [Ministry of Foreign Trade and Industry~ has been essential; "the MLTI is an amazing economic war machine whose _ intervention and advice have been decisive during these transition years." ' It is well known that the laxge industrial countries have denounced Japanese I~ commercial expansionism with increasing irritation. And today the United , States, Europe, Australia, New Zealand and many other nations complain about the strorag competition of Japanese products and denounce with equal firmness ; the protectionist practices of the Tokyo government. i ' ~ In response to these cri~icisms, the Japanese have developed a series of ; initiatives to corrECt their international public image. The fact that the ! trilateral conference was held in Tokyo last April is an exa.mple of this j strategy. At the same time, the authoritiss in Tokyo decided to grant more j facilities to the heavily indebted poor countries, in order to increase ; their influence d.nd prestige with the Third World nations (specifically ' those from South East Asia~ on the occasion of the fifth session of UNCTAD j which was held in Manila in May. ~ _ While Japan is thus trying to develop its economic relations with South ~ Ea.st Asia, and al.so and primarily with China, ~Africa~ ~printed in italics] remains an interesting trade partner, representing 5 percent of its foreign trade in 1978. Sino-Japanese tra.de constitutes about 3 percent. But it ~ appears probable that this percenta,ge will rapidly increase during the next ~ few yeaxs, "because the Japanese methodically invest in the major sectors which the Chinese are opening up to international economic cooperation." We believe that it is useful to publish these fPw pieces of information and observations in or~.er to be better able to place Japan's foreign trade with Af`rica within the present context of the Japanese economy. ( Foreign Trade With Africa I Paxis MARCHES TROPICAUX ET P'IEDI'i'ERRANEENS in F`rench 7 Se~ 79 PP z~29 - 2~33 I [Article by Jacques Clere: "Trade Between Japan and Africa in 1978"~ I I - [Text] Africa's share in Japan's foreign tra.d.e is about 5 percent. But it i should be noted that this share ha.s constantly gone down since i9?6, decrea- ~ sing fxom 6.03 percent in 19?6 to 4~.86 percent in 1978, due to the fact that exp~:ts decreased more rapidly than imports and lost 2.20 poi~nts over thesP 3 years. This evolution has been summarized in Table I. i- _ i. I 2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY � ~ ~ ~ ~ I APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ Table I. Africa' s. Share in Japan' s Foreign Trade in 1976 1977 1978 ` (in millions of yen~ ~~n.~a.. Fj~tpo~Ltion~ I~p~natlon~ ~ ylpbwa ~i~- j) - 1976 Monde 19 936 6'.8 19 229 168 39 163 786 Afripue ..5. 1 746 836 615 982 2 3ou 6 t!! Pan de ~'A rique % Ej . . . . . . . . 8,75 3.20 6.03 1977 I, ?,~a,q~ !~Y 21 648 070 19 131 ~80 40 779 850 Ahique 1 787 885 575 607 2 363 492 Psrt de 1'Afridue .~6 } 8,28 , 3.01 5.80 1978 Monde ~ 20 555 B40 16 727 624 37 263 464 plriQue . . . ~ . . . . . . 1 346 573 464 266 1 810 839 Part d~ I'Afridua 6 6,55 2.77 4,8b ( j............ V~riati~n 1976-1978 ..(7,....... - 2,20 - 0,13 - 1,17 Key: 1. E~cports 2. Imports - - 3. Global Trade World .5. Africa 6. Africa's shase in percentage 7. Change 1976 - 1978 . An important remark needs to be made when considerir.g these figures: as a matter of fact, a special place must be assigned to two African countries _ which present characteristics which clearly set them apart from the rest of the continent, specifically South Af~ica and Liberia. Let us study Table II. One notes that out of a global Japanese African volume of 1,810,839 million yen in 1978, Liberia by itself represented - 393~396 million yen 21.72 percent , while South Africa represented ~25~976 million yen 23.52 percent~. But the profile of these two countries is fundamentally different from that of the other African countries. As far as ~Liberia~ [printed in boldface] is concerned, if one breaks down the figure of its imports (3~,720 million yen) from Japan, 98 percent of it fa11s under the hea.ding "Ships and Navigational Materials" (Chapter 89 o~ the Brussels Nomenclature). On the other hand, out of a total sales to Japan of 38,675 million yen, one notes that: 2,348 million yen also fa11 under heading 89 of the Rrussels Nomenclature; the major shaxe 35~~�23 ~lion yen (91 percent~ of the global figure is modes~ly classified as "non-specifie~i" products. 3 ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ Table II. Trade Between Japan and Af~ica in 1976, 1977 and 1978 (in millions of y~n) [.~au~b~. a, J.yen wn rA~.i~u. (1 ~ - - " ~ ~wye.uwn. w. ~.~ow.w rrw.w.,K. ~�11r,i~w ( 2, I!)V1l7� H7YtY)~ ~ t97! 1f77 if7~ ~~OOtl76 1~)~ if1l 1!A l~i001~7/ ~ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ I . M~~oc ...(tl). 15IIt IlS23 1~0~1 !2 M~rx 10~75 10)7I ~~77 f0 i. (5):::::.:... �.~5):::::::::: Cwu ~t M~ a 9 100 10 ]S! ~ 552 N Guu n M 1 17 1 - ' aos~a ~iso� ,s~.u :s~ ~io~;... ~ ~oa ues ~oi: :ao I r�~,w a. ~ e~e f~es ~ u~ ef rwaa s~~ tos ~~s �t ~ L~Ly< 1~~ 7~ )RO 7] S9J 76 4M 60 977 2f 76I y 707 � C9rcu. l7670 10]6R /67~0 O Eprpw.� . 70f0~ 2151/ 171/7 ~S ~ ~ Sa.C+n . U 777 71 ~1! 17 65{ N SouA+e . t~ 507 1S ~S7 Il Sy ~7 . .1 .~:...5~~.... . 700/ - ~5~ 72 w.,,~u~. >>os t~oo ~.ie u s.n.,.�oe.~.i . ~ s~~~9d eet ~ se~ ts~ M.w~u~... j 1 s~u ~ 7~s ~ se~ u ~ 1 c.me,. .I . > >u ~a .oe w s�~a+ 1 ~ ~ ~a ~ a~ ~ ew ~o eo,~e. .1 . .e~ : ~s> >ey N o.ma. 3 - ~ ~ - s:.~~. ~.o,,. . 5 ~coi ~ ii~ ~ se> >i~ c~w........ 4 . - ~os w~ c.+~.e,.e,,. b. ~~su ieu~ ~o,s~ ~u s~.,~.-~w~,.. ~i w ~sa . ~ c~,~.. i ii~as ~sus ~s~s n ceuQi.a~... ~is~i t~a~ ~~~a iwa 1 ~ se~ i~so ~ n: n c~.~. 1 ~a iw a s� n~o � e~a� 1. ~on s~s~ ~ sre a r~......... 1~ t us ~n ~o � M,r, . ~a a~ ~ ao~ ~fi u,~ t u~ ~ ss~ ~:es u . , . vo~~. . sos ~ oes , os~ ui M� ~~ss : w. a~ ee ' c.,....~ ~ ~~s:e �>i~ tsoo~ N�n.�von.... ~t~i ~ou �i M,o.n� 2 iasen :~oie~ io�oo ~io u~.~........ w~ � +o+ n . ti.o... . 2 ~u~ ~i~~ .so: ea Ma.,~........2y{( a:as su~ ~~s~ ~ j ~ . . 25 ; ~ ao~ ~ s~> > so~ ~oe Np~r ~LM . 101 ia > > - Cn~ernyn 2b ~se> >+~,s ~oao ~os e..~e....... 2-J.[ w: ~oi~ ~s~s ~wo ` ~ _ Tcn~a... 21 : !57 11S ~~S /7 C~m~oun j~ 7~1~ /I1~ ~q1 EO I . C.nivr.~a~. 28 ~)1 {V S7~ 15{ Tc~~A ^~(j~........... N12 ~~~I ~~77 5f G~tw zq. ~ 91 / S 10! ~~I1 Q C~nbNripw GO 1~!1 1!5/ 601 70 ~ c~ 0. ~~~s ~~u ~~w e~ c.e~ t a~ i n~ i�a i~ I A~n : 1 ! 967 199! 1l6~ SO Conpo 1 72~ 71H 1 77~ f0] ( e,,.~,a Z........... ~sf fn ~ 7s~ toe z.r,�......... 7s~u t~7u ~7~u u ; �npM� 1 i~7 f ~s~ t S~~ ~IJ twuM . M p ~ ~ ~ .I Em.ov. . . ~eew ~~oee ~o~s~ e~ . uaoe sn~ , O~~M.n . . . ~ 900 ) 17! 7 {U EIMaw . ~ 37~ / 19~ ~ 4i Sa-.~� 1 77f S01 ~5~ ~7 SoinNN . N~ 1 N{ fl~ t0 ~ . >o~ s� ~n t~s ~e~ nt a~.~i~e~ ~ a~t t> >s _ . o~.....t55~........~...... . . a� ~n �o �e ta ref a (SQ~,, ui.~o .,~,i~ ~s.~:~ u ae.;. .(.50\/ ~.n. ~r.. ~se A~~q.~A.S~d ~ 1~.. . 7107]1 t0]101 7M{S~ AN~pu~Arf,A \Sl~. ~J)~1) l~15./ t111t7 1~ ~ 1 71~ ~I~ ~ 7tt ~H 1 7~~ 177 t~ ~1/ !~t N/ ~0) N~ J{Y fl ' I 4 : FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/48: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 rOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Key to Table II: 1. Exports from Japan io Africa _ 2. Imports by Japan from Africa _ 3. Base figure 4~. Morocco 30. Congo 5. Ceuta and Melilla 31. Zaire 6. Algeria 32. Burundi 7. Tunisia 33~ ~gola 8. Libya 3~I-. Ethiopia 9. Fgypt 35~ Djibou~ti 10. Sudan 36. Somalia li. Mauritania 37. Kenya 12. Senegal 38� ~an~ 13, Ga.mbia 39 � Tanzania 14~. Guinea 4~0. Seychelles 15. Sierra Leone 4~1. Mozambique 16. Ivory Coast 42. Madagascar 17. Ghana ~3. Ma.uritius 18. Togo 4~. Reunion~Comoro Islands 19. Benin 4~5. Namibia 20. Ma1i 4~6. Malawi 21. Upper Volta 47. Zambia 22. Canary Islands 4$. Botswana 23. Nigeria 49. Swazilaa~.1 24~. Niger 50. Liberia 25. Rwanda, 51. South Africa 26. Cameroon 52� Western Sahaxa 27. Chad 53~ Lesotho 28. Central African Republic Indian Ocean 29. Gabon 55� Other Consequently, as a country known for its free passage and its flags of accomodation, where Japan holds substantial maritime intersts, it is appro- priate to classify Liberia separately. ~ The case of South Africa is different: as one of the largest industrial countries, a veritable "ore country," its foreign trade has few points in common with that of the other countries of Africa. And when one examines the figures in detail with regaxd to Japan, one notices that; - 97 percent of the exports from Japan to South Africa consistsof products from the fron and steel industry and the heavy industry, equipment materials, ships, electronic materials, etcetera; - the exports from South Africa to Japan are those of a highly industrialized minin~ country, eridowed with a high level a$ricultural power; as evidence of this: 5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/48: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 I FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Millions - of yen Corn and grains 36 55~ - Sugax 20 864 rlineral products 12 227 Fyrites 41 559 , coal ~ z5 58? Precious stones and metals 29 7i? Ore and products from heavy industry 13 92$ Th~se seven items by themselves represent 180,472 mil.l.ion yen, or more than 82 percent out of a total of 219,322 million yen. This is why, in order to provide a picture which is closer to the reality experienced by the rest of the African continent, we decided that it would be more useful to prAsent the figures and comments, while isolating Liberia and South Africa most of the time. Overall E`volution of Trade ' I Table II provides a country by country evolution of trade between Japan and i Africa during the calendar years 1976, 1977 and 1978. The figures are ; expressed in millions of yen. Let us recall that 1 French fra.nc equals ap- ; proximately 50 yen, which could also be ex~:ressed in the following form: ~ i 1 million yen are worth approximately 20,0~0 French francs. ~ The evolution of Japanese-African trade is presented in a more condensed ; form in Table III and in graph IV. ~ It is evident th~.t the ~volution, as well as the Japanese-African ba~.ance ~ of trade and the export-import ratio, has become increasingly less favorable for Africa. This is made even worse by the reduction of trade. There is an even less favorable fact: while the export-import ratio of ~ Japan with regard to Liberia and Sout~ Africa put together has dropped from 4~29 to 218, for the rest of Africa this same ratio has more than doubled, going from 189 to 381. From ax. African point of view, this means that (aside from Liberia and South Africa) the export-import ratio has deterio- ' rated to a disturbing degree, having dropped in 3 years from 53.03 percent (1976) to 26.27 percent (19?8). ~ i I I I ~ 6 - I~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ ~ i . . . ~ ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPR~VED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ' Table III. Evolution of Trade Between Japan and Africa from 1976 until 1978 (E~cports - Imports - Ba].ance - Eacport-Import Ratio~ - (in m311ions of yen) . (1) E~oortadom Iwyewtio~~ 2, \5 h ~ M tehan � ) / v~rtur~ YAfiiqr~ ~'AhMu~ eot~ a ~ ~~W~e~` % 1976 Liberia et Afri9u. ' _ du Sud . 1 041 729 24~ 107 1 284 B~6 � 798 a22 429 Reste de I'Atrique 703 107 ]72 ~75 1 075 98Z ?~30 232 1 t9 7ou1 . 1 744 836 {lf !62 2~i0 tt~ ~ 1/2~ tS~ 2~3 - 1977 liberia et Af '9u du Sud ...~l] ~ 876 424 244 e71 1 121 295 �~31 5S7 35! Rastedel'AhiQupe ~7~1146I 3307J6 1242197 � 5~07Z5 _ 276 ToLI U 1 787 885 S75 607 !~67 4~2 + 1 212 27~ ]11 1978 ~ Liberia ~t Afri ue du Sud .~b~ . 581 375 257 997 819 972 � 30~ 37t 21 e R~sts d~ I'Afriqupe ~ 7~785 19B 206 269 991 467 ? 57e 929 J61 - Total ..k ~.7 1 346 573 464 266 1 810 B~! ? k2 ~07 280 Evolution 1976��1978~- Liberia �t ff~' ue duSud.~fJ~. - 14173?. + td890 - Raste ds I' r''~} + 82 091 - 166 606 - 84 515 + 248 E97 + 192 ~ . L....... Key: 1. Exports to Africa 2. Imports from Africa _ 3. Global trade 4~. Balance - 5. Export-import ratio - 6. Liberia an3 South Africa 7. Rest of Africa 8. Tota1 9. Evolution 1976 - 1978 E 7~ ~I FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 i ~OR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - - Tabl~e IV. Trade Balance Japan-Africa Milliuds 0~ yens ~3~ ~TaEt~au lY ~ B~lance commerciale ~1~ ~ JAPON - AFRIQUE~2~ iH ~ ~ ~ \ ( 6 )expoK~rions rtrs t'Af1ue UiEA~~ E~ 7 \ lf9i~UC JU SuD p ~ ~0~ (J .r..a. cun~u \ ' ~ ~v ~ \ (9) ~mpo~r~no~z Q~ Drovenan[a d'Afriqut ' C~ - 7~ uecou i~ \ ( ~roia.rt suy : i R iij \ "~~~uarl~r4i0af ii~% - SO \\`'~fi ~%i% ~ ./i~ '~ii i _ .%'~i~ ~i~i \ G// ~ ~ ~ j . , i:~ ~ . ~~i \ j/% . ~ ,/~i i;/ ~V~ . ~ : %;i~ ` � i ~i ' ~i%~ i: ~j~~ . . ~ : i y . .ii . E~parllmpo ap1977 5 y. E:poAlmport/[` ~ 1976 1978 l~/ � _ . . . . _ . ~ ~ Key: I 1. Trade balance ' 2. Japan-Af`rica i 3. Billions of yen 4~. E~cports 5. Imports 6. Exports to Africa 7. Liberia and 5outh Africa 8. Rest of Africa 9. Imports from Africa ; i t I I I- 8 FOR OFFICIAL USF. dNLY ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 I s , r_. FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY e - Japanese Imports from Africa ~ For a11 of Africa~ the main products imported by Japan are given in Table V. Table V. Principal Sa1es by Africa to Japan in i978 (entire continent~ (in millions of yen) Products Values 1. Pyrites 58 287 2. Copper 45 991 3. Corn and grains ~0 920 4. Precious stones and metals 33 017 5. Coffee 26 803 5. Cotton 22 614 7. sugax 20 864~ 8. Fresh fish and shellfish i6 755 9. Cocoa .................o..................... 16 302 10. Aluminum 15 051 11. Iron, cast iron, steel 14~ 068 12. Mineral products 12 912 13. Petroleum 11 387 14~. Oilseeds 9 979 15. Natural phospha,tes 7 078 16. Ivory 5 451 17. Wool and other ha.ir 4~ 680 18. Lumber 4~ 058 19. Hides and leather 1 026 TOIi~ ~~~�~��~�~~�~~~�~~~~~~~�~~�~��e�~�~~~~. 367 ~3 or 79.1 percent of the overall total , In Table VI, the ma.jor suppliers have been ranked f`rom 1 to 27 (out of 4~8 countries, excluding Liberia and South Africa,.ha.ving substantial trade with Japan) in decreasing order of importance. With regard to each of these ~ - countries, we have noted the main products it exports to Japan. : 9 ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 _ I FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ' Table VI. The Main African Suppliers of Japan in 1978 (excluding I,iberia and South Africa) (in millions of yen) , Countries Main Products Values Copper 3~I- 408 ' 1. Zambia ' ~ 2. Ghana Cocoa-Aluminum-Stones and gems 22 1~9 ! 3 Zaire Pyrites-Copper and ores-Ivory 17 Z1~85 ' 4~. E~ypt Cotton-Alumi.num 17 187 5. Sudan Cotton-Oilseeds 12 54-9 + 6. Ivory Coast Coffee 11 780 7. Morocco Fresh shellfish-Phospha,tes 9$37 ~ 8. Mozambique Corn-F~esh shellfish-Pyrites-Coffee 9 00~1- 9. Algeria......... Petroleum 8 012 i ' 10. Uganda. Coffee 6 995 ~ li. Cameroon Lumber-Coffee 5 834~ 12. Swaziland Pyrites-Papex pulp 5 164~ ~ 13. Ma.dagascax F`resh shellfish-Coffee-Pyrites 5 011 ~ 14~. Ma.uritania Pyrites-Fresh shellfish ~ 5~ , 15. Ethiopia Coffee-Hides-Oilseeds 4 4~6 j 16. Libya Petroleum 3 707 ~ 17. Kenya Ivory-Coffee-Plant fib~es 3~~ _ 18. Namibia Copper-Lead .........................o....... 3 006 ~ 19. Senegal Fresh shellfish-Phospha.tes z 650 + 20, Chad ....o...... Cotton ......................e............... 2 622 ~ 21. Tanzania Coffee-PZant fibres-Ivory z~55 1 22. Congo Ivory-Pyrites-Lweber 1 778 ~ 23. Nigeria Fresh shellfish-Oilseeds 1 559 ; 24. Rwanda Coffee 1 535 ; 25. Angola Coffee 1 317 I 26. Benin Cotton 1 265 ~ 27. Gabon Pyrites 1 23~1- Tot~ zoo 997 or 97.~4~ percent of the overall total of sales ~by Africa (excluding Liberia and South Africa) to Japan . Petroleum. - It comes from two suppliers: Algeria (7,775 ~llion yen~ and ' I,ibya (3, 612 mil].ion yen) . . Fresh fish and shellfish. - The global tonnage amounts to 32,~38 tons (16,755 million yen), of which 23,04~3 tons consist of shellfish alone~ The - fish and shellfish are caught by factory-ships operating off the African - coasts, and which process them immediately into canned or fro~en products. The ma.jor supplier is Morocco (fish: 2,290 tons; sheZlfish: 8,6~1-9 tons) ' for a value of 3,64~0 million yen. It is followed by Mauritania: 1,9~9 ~1- ~ lion yen (6,827 tons), Sene~al: 1,528 million yen (5,150 tons), Madagascar _ " and South Africa. 10 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY . Coffee. - It represents 26,803 million yen (36,353 tons) and comes prima- rily from the Ivory Coast: 9,~98 million yen (13,114~ tons), TJganda: 6,695 ~ million yen (10,061 tons), Cameroon: 1,871 million yen (2,372 tons)~ Rwanda,: - 1~535 ~llion yen (1,633 tons), Ethiopia: 2,94~ million yen (3,583 tons), - Angola: 1,221 million yen (1,628 tons) and Tanzania: 1,097 million yen (1,385 tons). - . Cocoa. The number of cocoa suppliers is far less and, out of a global value of 16,302 million yen (18,097 tons), Ghana: 15~~53 ~lion yen (17,418 - tons) is the quasi exclusive supplier, the rest being provided by the Ivory Coast and Cameroon. . Oilseeds. - The global figure is 9,979 ~lion yen for a tonnage of 91,3G-9 tons. It is divided as follows: sesame: 4~,362 million yen (26~802 tons); peanuts: 3,209 million yen (16,196 tons); karit~: 1,568 million yen (20,720 tons); cotton: 750 million yen (22,018 tons); other: 90 mil- lion yen. With regard to these figures it is interesting to note tha.t the Japanese have recently published articles about and taken out patents for the use of karit~ in the preparation of ~shortenings~ [printed in italics] (ba,ses and additives) for phaxma.cology and cosmetology. The ma.jor suppliers of oilseeds are (in milli~rs of yen~: Sudan: 5,328 (sesame-peanuts), South Africa: 981 (peanuts), N~,1.i: 683 (karit~), Upper Volta: ~6 (kaxit~ - sesame), Nigeria: ~5 (sesame - karit~), Ethiopia: 532 (cotton - sesame), Ivory Coast: ~45 (karit~ - sesame) and Togo (karit~), Benin (cotton), Mozambique (peanuts~. ~ . Corn and grains. - There are two suppliers: South Africa: 36,550 million yen and Mozambique: 4~,37o million yen. . Cotton. - It represents 22,614~ million yen (56~153 tons). The main suppliers are: Egypt: 9,z66 million yen (17,364- tons~, Sudan: 6,4~10 million yen (14,501 tons), Chad: 2,502 million yen (8,4~7 tons~, South Africas 976 ~llidn yen (3,365 ~ons), Benin: 97~ ~llion yen (3,961 tons), Cameroon: 893 million yen (3,176 tons), Ivory Coast: 646 mill.ion yen (2,241 tons~ and the Central African Republic, Upper Volta~ Ugan3a, Tanzania. . Lumber (unworked and squared). - This represents 4~,0~8 million yen and comes primaxily from Cameroon: z,o33 million yen , from the Congo: 599 million yen, from the Ivory Coast: 4~1 million yen, from Gabon: 271 million yen, from Mozambique: 205 million yen, and from Zaire: 195 million yen. . Natural phosphates. - The mai.n supplier is Morocco: 5~259 ~llion yen, fol~owed by Senegal: 1,085 million yen and the Western Sah~.ra: 658 million yen. 11 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/48: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY . . ' . Pyrites. - These represent 58,287 million yen, of which 36,013 are iron ; pyrites, 6,970 are copper pyrites and 5~525 ~e manganese pyrites. It will ~ be noted that, exclud.ing South Africa, iron pyrites are also produced in (expressed in mi~liors of yen) : Swaziland: 3, 205, Ma,uritania: 2,4~8 and ~ Mozambique: 1~078; copper pyrites in Zaire: 6~919; and ~r,anganese pyrites ; in: Gabon: 904~, the Congo: 450, Ghana: 222. : . ; . Precious stones, gems and metals. - The first place is held by Ghana: ! 2,223 million yen, followed by Zaire: 148 million yen and Zambia: 200 ~ (South Africa: 29~717 million yen, of which precious stones: 4,84~ and ~ platinum: 24,658). ~ . Copper. - The main suppliers are Zambia: 33~938 ~llion yen, followed by ~ Zaire: 3,206 and Namibia: 2,210 (South Africa: 6,~1 million yen). ~ i ~ . Aluminum. - Out of a total of 15,051 million yen, we find: Egypt: 7,616, I Ghana: 4,118, Cameroon: 673 (South Africa: 2~599)~ ~ . Ivory. - This item is very important, even though it concerns only 5~451 ~ million yen (364~ tons). The ma,in supplier by far is Zaire: 224 tons~ ; followed by Kenya: ~I-8 tons, the Congo: 4~1 tons and the Central Af~ican ~ Rapublic: 18 tons. ' I The world price of ivory vasies axound $65 per kilogram (approxima,tely i 290 French francs) and the figures show that the Japanese are purcha.sing , it at tha,t price. Now, if one knows the price of the smallest "netsuk~," one can only admire the talent of the Japane~e in the area of added ~ value: However, it is sad to note that, at the rate of 4~0 kilograms of ' ivory per average animal, this corresponds mathema,tically to 9,100 animals killed; being familiax wi#h the hunting methods used in Africa, one may . estima.te that in reality this would represent a global slaughter of nearly 20,000 animals a year . Antiques. - Let us mention, in closing, this very special market, which - represents 375 million yen (approximately 7.5 million French francs) the value of officially declared sales. The Japanese are enlightened amateurs and the pieces coming out of Africa are very likely quality,pro- ducts. The main suppliers in this area are: Nigeria (126 million yen~, ~ followed by Zaire (72), Egypt (50), Guinea (29~, Ivory Coast (19~ and i Cameroon (16). Japanese Exports to Africa The total of Japanese exports to Africa has increased in i978 up to ~ - 1,34-6,573 million yen 785,198 of which goes to countries other than ~ Liberia and South Africa. As could easily ha.ve been foreseen, this only involves manufactured products and the m~.jor items ha,ve been grouped to- _ gether in Table VII. i I i 12 . ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY , . APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Table tT~I. Principal bcports from Japan to Africa in i97$ (f~ussels Nomenclature) (in millions of yen) 1 - N~virRS ~1 mst6n~1 Ot n~vy~tion f89) . . . 41~ 264 2 - Voitwes. a~cteurs ~t cycNs (e7) . . . . . . . 2~.185~ ' 3 - Fer, fonte. sci~rs 1731 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14! 70S 4 - Machinef et engins mlcaniques (B41 . . . . 1M 564 5 - Mschines tlectriQues. R~d'~o-N 1851 . . . . 12S J6~ 6 -Teatiles symhliiques continus Ifils et tissvs11S1) - � . � � � � � � � 26 O~i 7- Te�ii~es synchbdQues disco~t~nus (libres1156) 2S ~~1 8- Caoutchouc (feuilles, crlpes et articles msnutacturls (40) Z3 1 9 - Conserves de viande et Doisson I16) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 089 10 - Ins~ruments C'optiQUe�photo (90) . . . . . . 14 437 i t - Matlriel lerroviaire (88) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 149 12 - Instruments de mus~r;~ ei d'enregistnment (92) 12 10 421 13 - Produi~s chi:niQues 128. 29. 38) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . : ~ 10 079 _ 14 - Outiuape. couteiterie, erticles de m6sal (82.8J) � � . � . � � � � � 9 432 :5-Horlogerie1911 B 783 16 - Maulres v~astia~es et leurs artictes (391 . . . . . . . � . . . . . . . .1. 6 480 17 - Habiliement 1611 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~7 5 220 18 - Produits tlramiQues et porcelaine 1691 . . . . . . . ~ 3 996 Totsl........~~.9., 7 292 575 soi~ : 96 % du total gEnlral des e�ponstions ( 2~, ! ~.~......M...,.....~.....,......,...�,~.,.....~..~..~...,....~..~.,-...--.. Key: 1. Ships and navigational ma.terials 2. Cars, tractors and bicycles - 3. Iron, cast iron, steel 4. Mechanical machinery and engines - 5, Electrical machinery, radio - television 6. Continuous synthetic textiles (threads and fab~ics~ 7. Discontinuous synthetic textiles (fibres~ 8. Rubber (sheets, crepes and manufactured products~ 9. Canned meat and fish 10. Optical and photographic instruments 11. Railway materials 12. Musical and recording instruments ~ 13. Chemical products 14~. Tools, cutlery, metal products 15. Time pieces 16. Plastic materials and articles thereof 17. Clothing _ 18. Ceramic and porcelain products 19. Total 20. Or 96 percent of the overall total exports Excluding Liberia and South Africa, Japan's major African clients are repre- senttd for 97.4~3 percent of the total, or 765,000 million yen by 28 countries out of 4-6 having substantial trade with Japan (excluding I,iberia and South Africa). These countries have been listed, in decreasing order - of importance, in Table VIII. 13 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ' Tahle VIII. The Principal African Clients of Japan in 1978 ; (in million of yen~ ' I - ~ - N~~~, . . . . . . ~o~ 900 ~ 0 - Mo~~nw~tw . . . . . . ! bE5 ; - 2 - Alpki~ . . . . . . . . 16J 417 17 - MN~wI . . . . . . . . . . . E 09S I ~ - E9rv~� . . . . . . . . ee ~.0 18 � Medsg~scu . . . . . 5 ~!1 ~ 4 - lWy~ . . . . . . . 73 992 19 � T.ambi~ . . . . . . . . . . . 6 580 5 - K~ny~ � � � � � � � � � � 31 994 2p - Maurica . . . . . . . 5 414 ~ ! - CDi~ d'Ivoire . . . . . 30 151 21 - Zaire . . . . . . . . . . . . .21 4 966 ~ 7 - Csnari~a . . . . . . . . 24 008 22 � Nifler . . . . . . . .`Z2 4 902 ~ 8 - Tanrenie . . . . . . . . 23 301 Z~ - S~erra�Leone . . . . .2 � 663 ~ . 17 5gH 24 - CpUouti 9 94~ i 9 - Sou~lan . . . . . tJ M~,~~ 14031 25�Rwanda ~~0! 11 - Ethin 10 757 z8 � O P~ uq~nd~ . . . . . . . . . . ~ J! 1 i 12 - Ca~,sroun. . . 10 O60 27 � G~bon . . . . ] 31? ~ 13 - Ghana . . . . . . 8 615 28 � Tunit~e . . . . . 3 191 I ld � C~~~~a ei M.idis 8 552 Toul .\29).. 7E5 008 ' } IS An,;,,~e . 1~ 7 Sd8 I ~ _ . . I ( i Key: ! 1. Nigeria 16. Mozambique ' 2. Algeria 17. Malawi ~ 3, Fgypt 18. Ma.dagascar ~ G~. Libya 19� Zambia ~ 5. . Kenya 20. Ma,uritius 6. Iyory Coast 21. Zaire ~ 7. Canary Islands 22. Niger ~ 8. Tanzania 23. Sierra Leone 9. Sudan 24~. Djibouti ~ 10. Morocco 25. Rwanda i 11. Ethiopia 26. Uganda ~ 12. Cameroon 27. Gabon ~ 13. Ghana 28. Tunisia 14~. Ceuta and Melilla 29. Total 15. Angola Japan's major African clients ase, by products and values (in millions of yen); j ; i . Canned meat and fish. - Nigeria (14~,784-) - Egypt (2,4~0) - Ghana (1,~79~ ~ and 5outh Africa - Ethiopia - Zaire. ~ . Rubber (sheet, crepes and manufactured articles). - Egypt (4,970) - Algeria l (4~,?90) - South Africa (2,905) - Nigeria (2,393) - Sudan (1,813) - Libya ~ (i,z53) - Kenya (672) and Liberia - Ethiopia - Tanzania. i . Continaous synthetic textiles (threads and fabrics). - South Africa (7,021~ - j Egypt (3,~0) - Sudan (3,288) - Ethiopia (2,381) - Nigeria (2,306) - Tanzania (723) - Ghana (655) - Liberia (636) - Malawi (575) and Kenya - Rwanda.. 14 ~ ' FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY . Discontinuous synthetic textiles (fibres). - South Africa (8~383~ - Nigeria (4,p72) - Egypt (1,829) - Sudan (1,566) - Ethiopia (1,299) - Algeria (1,218) - Kenya (1,060) - Niger (952), and Tanzania - Libya - Mauritius. . Iron, cast iron, steel. - Algeria (~1,566) - Nigeria (35r5~3~ -~uth _ Africa (13,369) - Libya (11,834-) - Egypt (10,249~ - Kenya (8,4~39), and Tanzania - Sudan - Mad.agascar - Angola - ~nisia - Ethiopia - Mozambique - Ghana - Morocco - Mauritania. . Mechanical ma,chinery and engines. - Algeria 48,712~ - South Africa (35,15z) - Nigeria (17,380) - Egypt (9,894~) - Tanzania ~5,617); and Sudan - Kenya - Canary.Islands - Libya - Angola - Zaire - Mozambique - Malawi - Ivory Coast - Ethiopia. ' IIectrical ma.chinery - radio - television. - Nigeria (32,796) - Libya (17,228) - Fgypt (16,357) - South Africa (13,934) - Canary Islands (6,9~9) - - Ceuta and Melilla (4,149)~ and Tanzania - Kenya - Ivory Coast - Morocco - Ethiopia - Sudan - Uganda . . Cars, tractors and bicycles. - South Africa (78,851) - Nigeria 66,076 - I,ibya 31,878 - Algeria (1~,226) - Egypt (1~,085) - Ivory Coast ~12~553 - Kenya ~12,2803, and Cameroon - Tanzania - Canary Islands - Liberia - Morocco - Sierra Leone - Ghana - Sudan. . Maritime and river navigation. - Liberia (3~1-7,226~ - Algeria (24~880) - Egypt (12,137) - Ivory Coast (11,278) - South Africa (10,788) - Morocco (4,652) - Mozambique (1,397) - Ma.da.gascax (1,187). . Inorganic chemical products. - South Africa (1,405) - Tanzania (3~1~6~ - Egypt (27?) - Kenya (114~) and Zambia. _ . Organic chemical products South Africa (2, 283) - Tanzania (4~65) - Nigeria (279) and Ivory Coast - Kenya - Egypt - A~geria. . Plastic materials and plastic articles~ - South Africa (2,238~ - Nigeria - (1,661) - Algeria (385) - Tanzania (310) - Fgypt (307) - Kenya (233) - Libya (191), and Morocco - Canary Islands - Angola. . Clothing~ - Nigeria (1,042~ - Benin (591) - ~t (~13) - Libya (396) - Niger (365) - South Africa (338) - Kenya (311~ - Djibouti (287~ - Togo (2~0) - - Morocco (222), and the Canasy Islands - Ceuta and Melilla - Malawi - Liberia. . Tools, cutlery and household articles. - South Africa (2,359) - Nigeria (9~1-8) - Egypt (913) - Libya (~2) - Morocco (211~, and Kenya - Angola - Algeria. . Meta1 articles. - Nigeria (1,092) - Algeria (674~~ - South Africa (378) - E~ypt (333) - Su~ (230), and Tanzania - Libya - Kenya. 15 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY I . Optical and photographic instruments. South Africa (5,293) - N:tgeria 1~889) - Canary Islands (1,270 - Algeria (1,058) - Libya (907) - E~t ~ ~ 820) - Ceuta and Melilla (5263~ and Morocco - Kenya - Sudan - Tanzania - Tunisia - Ivory Coast. ~ ~ . Time pieces. - Can Islands (3,707) - Libya (1,685~ - Egypt (i,z55) - Ceuta and Melilla (809 - South Africa (742~, and Ethiopia - Nigeria. ; . Musical and recording instruments. - South Africa (2,404) - Nigeria (2,203) ~ - Libya (1,3~) - Canary Islands (836~ - Egypt (774~) - Ivory Coast (3?4) - ' Algeria ( 294~) - Kenya ( 246 and Swaziland - Ceuta a.:3 Melilla - Mauritius . ~ - COPYRIGHT: Rene Moreux et Cie, Paris i979 I 84~63 cso: 4~00 ~ _ ~ ~ i i- i ~ I 16 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ iNTER-AF'RICAN AFFAIRS . ~ TRANS~RTATION OITrIAOK FOR 1978-1988 DISCUSS~D ~ Au~ia HARCI~S TROPICAUX ET ~DITII3RAN~JS in French 24 Aug ?9 pp 2308-10 [Article~ "The Decade of ~anaportation in Africa: 1978-19~ [Text] Aftsr the heada of atate of the seib~r countriea of the OAU (Grgani- ~ation of African Unity) at their June 1973 =eeting adopted. the "Declaration of Cooperation for the Develop~ent of Z~anaportation and Coaaunicationa" it required more than 5 years Yor the UN to ratify ths declaration aryd--in Deceaber 1978--tc> procla~io oYficially the inauguration of the "'Decade of TSre~neportation ~.nd Co~auni.cationa in At~ica~ 197a-1988." Deapite ita protaacted~ slox progresa through the.naze of the various inter- national ~uriadictions, thia declaration--reinforced by the countersignature of the United Nationa General Aaae~bly--deea8 to hold proaiae for the future. Indeed~ an isportant doawisnt concsrning thie "decade" has ~ust~besn pub- lished by th~ United Nationa. It ~should be esphaaized that this.ie the firtt - ti~e a ooxprehensive stuc~y concerning Africa has been carried out, and the fir~t tiae a atrategy e~bodying apecific ob~ectives haa been elaborated xith preciaion an~d sufficient ob~ectivity to aerve aa a baaia for ac~ion during the ysara ta come. ~ The authora of thia atudy are seabera of the Econotic Co~iaeion for Africa-- tt~e, ar~sni~ation thst xeua desigaed, noreover, to bs the pxiae oontractor for ~ - the pro3ecta t+hich are to be undertaken. Ths Coaaisaion'a role xill accord- ingly be to ar~nitor, activate~ auperviae and ooordinate the inaugurstion of the succesaive phaaea of the overall plan, xlaich ie achaduled to be spaced over the 8-yeur period frn~ 1y80 to 1988e i~hen one conaiders that tranaportation and co~uunicationa facilitiee are the keyetoneo oiP all eoono~ic progress~ it is underef.andable that the first - oomprehenBive choice to bs aade by Africa would rsflect that orientation. Ta open up the landlocked oountries of the interiori to 3ap~'ove~ or create~ �a~or tranaportation axee that xill ~ake poesible the.continuoua exchange of persone and grooda= to hariwnize the rar~,y eaisting. regulationat aaid to develop tslecosaunications xith a viex to creating,~genuine local econoaies 4nd obtaining the p~cticipstfon of the rural population in the eoonooic sxakening of a continent thst poaaeaees a grext hwian potential and energy potential--thede, are the ~ajo�r the~es of thid report. 17 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - The firat ~haae of this "decade" covsrs the 4-yee~r period fron 1980 through 1983 ~~ncerna a total of 49 countriea--circu~tancea xhich in thea8elves beapeak the difficulties in coapiling, selecting and rePining hundrede of pro~ecta involving a continent ~rhich hae ~sr~r faceta. The coet eatiiatee nacle for all these pro~ecta total $8 billion. This dua has no great aignificance per ee: it ~ay p~ove to be too saall or too large but is in any caae i~preciae~ ~or it ia eub~ect to reviaion. All this is reaaon enough to accord only litited aredenw to thia estiaste. ~n the . othar hand, it is useful to knox the bucig~stary pe~rcentagee alZocated to each individusl sector, to esch type of activity and to each int~astructure. Fbr exasple, nat~onal pro~ecta ths~t i~psct one or fore otber oountries rvpreaent approxinately 70 percent (g5.k~ billion) of the total budget. Thie fact reflects a deter~i.nation to develop--on a p~riority bsaid--the interetate infraatructure that is an indlaputable p~erequiaite fcr any econoaic awakening. Projects that concern only individual atates account fc~r one-fourth of the total br~dget. The typea of action envisaged--irtveattent, training and research (in the bxoadeet aense of the tera)--are diatributed in the folloxing proportiona. Fira~ of all, capital investsent (equipaent purchasea~ conatruction, and so forth) alene account for 95 pexcent of the overall budget. Thia aerve~ to _ e~phsaize (if Buch xere necessary) the treaend.ous ePfort that xill be requirsd to adapt the tranaportation and conu~unicationa netxork in such a xay aa to enable aubstantial pxogrees in the current ecanonic situation. The 3 percent allocated for training appsars quite ~odest by oo~pariaon in viex of the fact that ~95 aillion (1.2 psrcent of the budget) ia allocated for reaearch (feasibility etudiea~ angineering atn~?eys, planning). The couisaion has requested that the departaent of trtining be e~aeigned apecisl priority. - Lnatly~ an exaaination of the diatribution in teras of atructure ahoKS that priaacy has been given to highxaya (50 percent of tP1e budget) folloxed by railxays (20 percentj, porta (1$ percer.t) and airlines (7 perc~nt), xith fluvial xaterxa,ya an~d nariti~e tranap~rt at tho bottoa of the ecale. Tele- - conmunicatione--fncluding the poatal eervicea--sccount for 6 per~eent. After establiehing the gsneral objectives and grouping the various activitiee - into mA~or categ~oriee~ the atuc~r aakes a aector-by-aector analyais of the pro3ecta. ~ iav_, ~ 1( Highxay~ ard Highxay T~ansport Eatimated to total approximately 100,000 kilo~eters, the existing highxay netxorIc reaaina relatively und~eveloped in that its infraatructure has not been adapted to the various greeent-day sodea of traneport and because aaintenance has manifestly been inadequata. "At`rica ia a victii of ita geography, its lack of financial resources and its lack of technicians~" ie tha co~uent moat usually heard. 18 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY _ These characteristics are iore or less intensiPied depaiading on the region. In Burwtidi~ Rxanda and the northeastern regione of Zaire, for e~xau~ple~ highxay transport is very poor ard comaunications are difFicult. In Yeet A,f~ica, on the other hand, ~.he netxork of "all xeathe~" highxayg Will bs nsar completion in 1982. In North Afrioa, xhere an intarnational hi~~n4Y n~tKOrk he,s long b~en in place, the eituation ia eubat~ntially better~ the ~ 3outhern I~torocco-Cairo trunk highxa.y ie oovpletely negc~tiable by vehicuL~r traffic, khile the Trans-3aharan highxay linking Algeria to Ma~li and Niger is xell on the xay to coapletion. ~ Tiro basic oonce:pts guided the Commission in the elabora.tion of its pro~ecte. The firat concept is that development oP ~t.he various highxays should be articula~ed around e~a,~or international azes, which xill in some meaaure serve as the skeleton of the highxay infYastructure onto Khich the ad~acent roada xill be grafted. Five transnational hi~tPa,ys will be covpleted soon: ~ the Mamba,sa-Iagna, Cairo-Gabon, Dakar-N' D3a~nena~ Lag+og-Nouakchott an~d TScana- 5ahara highxa,ys. Four others are in the p].anning stage~ the ~ipoli- ~ Windhoek~ Nouakchott-Cairo, N`Djamena-Kaasaxa and Beira-Lobito hi~Kays. The second concept is the necessity of ending tha isolation of the landlocked . countriea (countries xithout an outlet to the sea,), xhich are quite often linked to their neighbore by roads (or even trails) on i+hich traffic ie interrupted during the rair~y sesson. Fbr exanple~ the N'Ga~oundere-Chad route--which providea direct accsds froa Caaeroon to Cha,d--ie rendered ~ i~apa,asible f~.^om year to year. Fbr ~ar~r yedra traffic haa therefore been diverted toKard the Nigerian hi~xay Khich rune froa l~faiduguri to N' D3aaena, but xhen Iake Qiad overfloxs (aa in 1963) congestion xesulta~ xith all the attendant consequenoea. Plana also csll for putting the 313-kiloneter stretch fron N'Gaoundere to Guid3lba (on the Chadian border) into grood condition. Tha 80 pro~ects xhich ha,ve accord~ngly been atudied, ~or inclusion in this initial phase (1980-1983) ~~~tute a unified xhole, and their ooapletion xould unquestiona,bly asaigt in end.ing t,he isola,tion of the interior regiona and to a subgtantial extent facilitate the apvenent of peaple and g~oode. ~ Rail T~ansport F~a~ented rail linee xhich coae to an ab~upt end in the aiddle of a country or at a national bordar: this ia the xay the Af~ican rail netxork appsara - on a aap. Excapt in North Africa and 5outh Afycica,, the denaity of thie natMOrk ie lou. I~or a total area of appzoxiaately 30 oillion aquare kilo- aeters there are in Afriea only 80 ~ 700 kilor~etera of railroad, or an avsr,age of 2.5 kiloaeters of railroad p~r 1,000 equare kiloaeters. A comparison xith the Ewropear~ rail n~txork~ xhich tsaa ~60 kilosste~sa of railroa~d per 1~0~~ equare kiloaetera (300~000 kilo~eters of railroad ~or a total of ~ ~�75 million aq,uare kiloaeters Af area)~ de~netratea At`rica'a povsrty in thia regard. Ten countri~ hava no rail systea at alle The Geu~bia~ Nig~r, 3onalia, Ch~d, Rwanda, the Cent,ral At~ican ~}~ire, Lib3ra, Leeat~ho, Guinea~- Bisaau and Equatorial Guinea. 19 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY In addition to their lox density the railroada ar~ disparate in the~t they are currently of ~hree dif`terent types, xith thoae o~ i.k35 aeter gauge and 1.065 meter gauge accourcting for 75 ~ercent of the network~ not to uention va~iou8 railroads of a purely local character (1.005 mater.an~d 0.60 aieter gauga) rrhich nonethaless repressnt 4 percent of' the overall network. There ie aleo dispaxity in ter~a o~ aotive poxsr (dieeel, elec- tricity and ~teaan). Only 6~500 kilometere of line ara electrified (in North Af`rica and in South Af~ica,). Dieael is the vative poxer ioat covaonly used at preeent. Because of all these oonstrainta--to ~rhich duat be added an inadequate infrestructu~e--t~a~fic on this network moves sloxly, at an average dpeed of 40 kildmetere per hour for paadenger tra!`Fic and 30 kiloaetera per hour for f`reight tra~fic. The fa~oe~ Ca,sablanca-Tunie "etreaaliner" csn of couree bear compa,rison Kith our E~uopean exp~eae trains. but it ia virtually th~ onlq one of ite kind. The initial ob~ective~ as etatsd, ia to ~chieFVe optiatua utili.$ation of - sxisting capacity through i~prove~ent of the infYastxucture and equi~aent. The a0cond. ob3ective ia subaequently to initiate a pro~ dedigned #,o unify~ haroonize and link togetheT the varioua nstione,l. eyete~s, xith the pri.me~ry e,i, of opening up the iaolated regions. E1rsn aore that? on 6xpanaion of ~the rai]s~oad netKOrk, eapha~sis is pla~ed on iaprovesent a~d Btandardi~a- tion of ;he exieting lin~s. EScpanelon of the nstKOrk ( save for several exceptions, as for e~canple the Trans-Gabon Railiroad) haa acoordingly been postponed to the seoond phase o~ the p~o~ (1984-1988)� Preparatory studies Kill be undertaken during the firet par~ of the "decad0," hoxever. A total of 20 studies and pro~ects have been evaluated and proposed. We aay cite in thie connection the stu~dies for the Parakou-Niatey and Togo-Nigar- Upper Volta linea; tha restoration in Case+roon ot' the Ebeka-Idal.ouas line (80 kilo~etere) and Ddea-~eka line (27 kilometera)i and the ree~toration in Guinea of the Conakry-Karikan line. Nasitime Transport ' The countries of Africa beca~e involved in aiaritine traneport only recently. _ The eaergence of 3ITRAM (Ivorien l~aritiae Tranaport Co,pany) as one of the lines serving the Keat Af~ican coa~t ia a relativaly recent developnent~ deapite the fact that the prepond~~ance of Af~ica's iaternatioru~]. trade-- awre than 95 percent--movea by sea as a oonaequence oP the insufficiency of interstate oo~uunicatione on the oontinent. It aust be acknoxledged thst AFrica,'e merchant ~leet (conaisting o~ 291 unite, snciud~ 69 coastMie~ vessels) is very saa].1 and regresenta only 0.7 pereent o~ total xorld tonnage--a circumstance ~ich leavea to forsign eoapanies the taak of handlli,g 97.5 percent of the 11f~ican tsade. Except for the aforeaentioned SITRAM~ the Black Star I,ine~ the Nigerian national ahipping line and a PeK ot,hera, the Af`rica~n navigation ooapanies are at~7.1 enterprie~s (operating iyrom one to five ahipa each) irhich are often not very profitable becauee of an inaufYiciency of auiageaent ca~dres trsined in tha field of naxitime transport. 20 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Although only 13 of the 49 Af~icaz? countriee have no direct acceds to the sea, the African people have nonetheleas not been oriented toward a maxitime vocation, the lone exception being the population of the &~.rbary Coa,gt, xho - "iz~ modern ti~aes" plied the M~diterranean. A substan~Cial inveataent has, to be sure, been made in this sector, but the reaaone for thie inaufficiency muet be sought elaeKhere snd are of an hiatorica,l character. Deapite this situa,tion, the authors of the plan have allocnted anly a rela- tively sma11 part of the budget to the development~ of maritiae transport, undoubtedly because of the large amount of capi~~~l required and tha la~ck of _ specialists but also because a solution of thia probZea does not appe~.r to be urgently ess~ntial to the progresa of the A~ican econo~qy. Nevertheleas, beca.use economic independence ia one of the leit~wtifa of the African leadership, strong enphasis xas placed on the need for all the states of the OAU to adopt, very quickly, "the code of conduct for the Conference l.ines." This code stipulates the division, on a baais of equality, of traffic between a given country and the Conference lines that serve 1t. This is the eo-called 40~40/20 rule~* xhich has already been iittplemented by a number of countries includ.ing the Ivory Coast. The projecta approved relate principally to the training of techniciane to a,ssume the functions of mana,gement an~d operation of the future Af~ica,n shipping industry, and projects to provide the indispensable technical asaistance. Provision has also t~een made for th~ purcha,se of a very limited number of ships, for a surn Which nonetheless representa more than 60 percent of the tota,l value of the funds alloca,ted to maritime transport. Specifically~ llk ships will be purchased for Ethiopia for a total of $124 million out of the overalZ tota.l of $198 million. Pbrts A~ the conclusion of World War IZ Africa poasessed. only a very fe~ modern porta. On the Kest coa,at, for example--other ~han Dakar and to a lesaer degree Takoradi--there were only ao-called "xhasf" ports. In thoae dqys, passengers for Lome or Cotonou xent ashore by borroWing "boats" which shuttled betxeen the ship and the xharf. The situ~tion has sir.ce changed considerably. There are now a total of 49 major ports in Africa (12 in North Africa,~ 12 in East Africa, 18 in West Af~ica and seven in centxal Af'ri ca ) . *Reciprocal traffic, in the amount of 40 percent for each party, the remain- _ ing 20 percent being awarded to third parties--the so-called "cross-traders." 21 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY This representa progr~ss that is at least encouraging~ but p~ogresa t,hat is only superficial. ',ihile it is trua that the equipment in theae porta is generally xorn out ai:d an tiquated and that atorage facilities are inade- quate~ the lack of effici~ency and pxoductivity that prevails on the xh~ves derives in great part froa bad aanageatent. The paca of cargo harxiling is abnornia,lly slo~: 7 or 8 ton~s per gang-hour for aiscellaneoue cargo, a figure xhich sometimes drops to 5 tonB per gan~-ho~. Thie sta~e of af`fairs - cauaes significant del~ys for shipping and conaequently producee congostion in the ports. The Economic Commiasion for Africa ha,s been very seneitive to this problem, � in consideration of the fact that of the total of k~9 ports 16 serve ae outleta for the landlocked countriea. ~br this reason emphasis has been placed on t,he acceierated training of personnel xifi.h a viex to relieving-- as quickly as possible--the congestion that preyails in the ports. Gn page 74 of the report one accordingly reada~ under the heading "Pbrt Staff an~d Iabor": "In every case the develop~ment of human resourceg must come ttell - bePore the groxth of the ports. Tha training of personnel is therefore a ~ priority con~ideration and involvea all categ+ori~ of port amployees. One ' - of the solutions proposad is the organi~ation of theoratical and practical training cours~s. This type of training can be instituted immedia,taly, . without any need for the creation of special centers." It is therefore not su,rprising that a aignificant proportion of the projected , investwent for the ports has been allocated to training. , Other measurea--in this case, of a material character--have also been pla.rmed, notably the expansion of the transit facilities at Lome~ xhich is destined to become one of the outlets of Upper Yolta and Niger. In addi- tion~ the projected development of the port of Kobo in Nigeria can help to ~ provide a aolution for the c:onstant congeation of the Nigerian ports. Waterxays Little by little~ xaterFrays have become the "poor relation" of the transport- ation field. Other than a few ~a,3or axea (as for exa~mple the :3hine and the ' Seine), watez~rays havo been neglected by investora. The same phenoaenon exists in Africa as Well. "Underprivileged" la the word applied to them by = the authora of the report. Without pursuing this analysis further, it should be pointed out that t,he notorious irregularity of the flox of the African rivers does not predispose to the develogment of this means of transport, a meana xhich is~ horrever, very economica,l ~ On some rivers the Water depth normallyr drops 'belox the minimum of 1.10 required for profita,ble na,vigation. Moreover, many of the ' rivers are divided into impassible reaches by rapids and Katerfalla. At the present time the majority of the xaterirays remain in their natural states that ia to say, poorly auited to commercial utilization. The river ports are either ur?derequipped or ill equipped and are poorly - linked to the hinterland. There are aiany farms aw~ong the rivers and~ lakes 22. FOR GFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/48: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100144425-2 ~ FOR OFFICTAL USE ONLY i _ ~ but they have remained in the artieanal s+.,a.ge, in particular on the Niger~ ~ L'aka Tangat~yika,, I.a.ke Victoria and the affluenta of Lake Chad. Several ma~or companies operate plantations on the Benoue (xhich is navigable one i s.n~d a half months out of the yeart) and on tho Congo upstream from .Brazza- ~ ville. I ~ In-depth stud.ie~ will 'be undertaken concerning the potential for navSgation ~ on certain rivers--the Volta Noire, the Ganbia and the rivera of Rxanda-- and also concerning the possibilities for improving the navigabi~.ity of the ~ Benoue and Ca.samance rivera. ! A numb9r of conatruction projects are also pxo~ected~ including expaneion of the port of Bujumbura in Burundi and the cons~ruction of a port at Gaya I in Niger. A total of $102 million has been alloca,ted for the riverxays~ ~ representing 1.?_ percent of the total sums allocated for the firat phase of t~e "decade." Multimodal ~ansportation I i 2he Commis~ion experts who have studied the use of containers throughaut ~ Af`rica remain predominantly skeptical concerning the progresa of thie ne~ns of transportation. The shaxe of funds alloca,ted to the container sector substa.ntiates thie viex~ only $6.40 million~ xhereas (as xe have atated) ' overall ex,penditure for the firet phaee of the "deoade" hae been pro~ected as $8 billion. This ahould not ca.use surprfae. What purpose, indeed~ xould be aerved by expaxiding oontainerization on a large scale at a time xhen facilities for disp~,tching t`reight ~re atill scanty~ khen the porta remain congeated~ - and xhen trie ports, railroads and highxays remairi poorly integrated? The progreas of multimod.a.l transportation must necessarily be slow in Af'rica, for it is linked to improve~ent of the entire infraatructure. Fbr the present~ therefore, only country-by-country studies Kill be mada, in order that a better approach ico thi~ problem xill be poasible. This is the deciaion that ha.s been ta.ken with respect to multisodal transportation. Air Tranaport Tn 1977 the African airlines accounted for 5 percent of the international passenger traffic and 3.3 percent of the international freight traf'~'ic. Their participation in intra-Af~ ican air transport remains rela,tively undeveloped by comparison: 30 percent of passenger traffic and 4 percent of freight traffic. The domestic netxork, moxeover~ lacks cohesion~ xith " service being centered ~rredominnntly on the North-South axis. One expla- - nation is that once an African sta,te posseesea "its oxn line" it displa.ys a tendency to keep the line ,jealously for i~tself~ to the detriaent o~ its - development. The "jet," the present-day sym'bol of a certain kind of poxer~ is not yet a factor for unity in Africa. This protectionisn~ at the national level did not go unnoticed by the Commission's investigat,ors~ xho 23 FOR OFFZCIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/48: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY I reported ttae fact quite ob~ectively. Hence the primary emphasia pldced on the neceasity for cooperation ~among the states in an effort to enhance the ' comnercial potential of the existing lines. Another factor (in thia case an econonic factor) has aleo helped to retax~d the grouth of this meana of transportation~ namely opera,ting costs. Direct costa xere estima.ted in 1977 17.3 centa per ton-kilo~eter (conpered , xith the xorld average of 14.2 cents) an~d the indirect--or structural--coste ! - to be 16.6 centa per ton-ki~ometer (coapared xit,h the xorld average of 12.9 cents). Be that as it may, there are regions in Africa Where the airplane is sti..~ the sole meana of conmunication, and its development is therePore ioperative. The pro3eats approved for this sector fall into two categ~ories: the train- ' ing of personnel~ and the expanaion and improvement of the infraetructure. The Co~miseion has left to another organization--the Af`rican Civil Aviation _ Commiasion--the task of stuc~ying the p~oblem of experding the air fleet. - In 1976 the African countries operated a total of 37? aircraft. At the beginning of 1978 it xas estimated that in tha courge of the ensuing 4 years , it xould be necessary to acquire a total of 171 aircraft--inclwding 60 long-range airliners--representing a total of $2.2 billion. The financing o~f these purchases xill be dealt xith wtider a sep~a~cate procedure. ~ I Telecommunica+.ions, Radio, Television~ Postal 5ervice ! It is a truiam in Af~ica, to say that telephonic and telex coDUnunict~tions are mediocre, that the radio an~d television netWOrka are relatively ua~de- veloped and of slight significance, and that fihe poatal aervices ar.e highly unreliable. There are 0.44 telephonee per 100 inhabitants, compa~red to ~ 4.5 per 100 in South America arjd 5.2 per 100 in Asia. ~ I It is obvious--the authors of the report emphasize--that a large-scale ; effart must be made quickly to alleviate the isolation of the residenta of the rural areas and--more generally--to make the actions undertaken in the other sectors more effective. T'he principal ob~ectives pmpoaed in this regasd, are as folloirs a 1. Telecommunicationa ~ a. Improvement and expansion of the national netxorka~ xit~h the goal of one telephone per 100 inhabitants, and one public telephone per 10,000 - inhabitants, by the end of the "deca~de." b. Connections for capitals that lack transit to the outside xorld. c. Haraonization of rates. , d. The development in Africa of a telecoamunic,~,tions industry. ~ 24. FOR ~FFICIAL USE ONLY ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY 2. Radio and Television a. Iaprovenent and expanaion of the inf'rastructure of the radio and teYe- vision netKOrks xith a~ viex to assieting the economic and social development of the rural ,areas. b. An exchange of prograas among the i~ctividual state~. c. Consideration of ineasurea to bring about an increase in the nusber of radio receiving sets among the population (at the present time the ldast expensive radio receiver coats $20). d. The de~relopment in Af~ica, of a radio and television equipment industry. 3. ~betal Services - a. Development of the infrastructure throu~ the creation of aultinational - transit centers. t~. Organization of mobile ~ail delivery services in rural come~unltiea. At the conclwsion of this brief analyBis several~connenta oome na,turally to ai.nd. Hox will all the projecta mentioned in thia report be financed? Asauming that the appropriate organizations xill grant the credit requested~ how Kill it then be integrated into the multiple~ bilateral and multilateral aid granted to the individual ata,tes through the fnternediary of the nuneroua � national a,nd international organizationa--the OCDE [Oooperation and Economic Development Organization]; the EPCi the EEC/ACP [Af`rican, Caribbean and Pacific countries]~ the EDF [E~ropean Developnent ~.ind]; and others--not to mention the regional African organizations that function aa the payeea in thie tra,rieaction? One can anticipa,te that--at the very leaat--a eituation - difficult to clarify xill rssult. . Let us also once again consider Af~ica's polltical problens, xhich do not - pr~dispose to optimiam. Will these probleas not act as a b~ake on coopera- tion a~:.g the individual states~ Which ia, hoNever~ indiapensable to the aucCesaful~. i,dplementation of thie pla,n? The ,Af"rican leadera hope over the lon,g term;. to ',3chieve economic inte~ation--an Af~rican comnon ~aarket at the continen:ta~ :.evel. Will the economy take precedence over politica? In ar~y evc~:.t~ the report draxn up by the Economic Comeissian for A~ica, and approved by the conference of the ~inistera of t,ra,nsportation is acheduled for pr~sentation to the UN next November, for ths approval of that boc~y. There is not yet any reason for ekepticisa concerning i~ple~aentation of thi$ vast progran. CO PYRIGHT: Rene Moreux et Cie Paris 1979 10992 C50 i 4~00 ~ 25 ~ ; FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY . ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/48: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 - ~ rvr.W ~~IU V~\YL ~ 1 . ~ I INTER-AFRICAN AFFAIRS i ~ BRIL~k'S ' ~ ; GDR EXPEDITIONARY FORCES--Six-Chousand men: these are the East German forces ~ of the "Afrikakorps" presently stationed in Angola, Mozambique ar~d Ethiopia. According to South African inteiligence sources, these Germans adapt themselves i very rapidly to combat and living conditions on~the black continent, even faster ' than the members of the Cuban expeditionary corps. Pretoria has passed on a . dossier on this particular question to the Bonn goverament. [Text] [Paris i VELEURS ACTUELLES in French 1 Oct 79 p 34] i CSO: 4400 i ; i i ~ ~ ; . ~ ; , , ~ 26 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY , . , 1;~ ~ f APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY BENIN STABILITY, GOOD MANAGSMEHT CONTRIBUT~ TO PROGRPSS - - Paris JEUNE AFRIQUE in French 12 Sep 79 pp 36-39 . ~Article by Philippe Sisoast: "The Expsrts Are Optisietic"~ ~TeztJ The World Bantc is optivistic regarding the medius-rsnge econo~ic f~ture of Benin. This ia the conclusion tt~at can bs drsxn irom the 1nts~ natione~l financial o~ganization's lateet report on the country. Thie ~e- port ia more extensive than the bank�a previoua report on Benin covering the period 1972-19'J3. Ttie nex report cov~rs the entire period aince Lieutenaa?t Colonel Kerekou~s rise to poKer. The report describee thoes Years aa "a period of political atability" folloxing a dosen y~eara of troublea and incesaant changes in gover~ent. The World. Baak expecte that Benin�s groea national product `rill grox by - 6 percent per year~ in real tera~s~ betNeen 19?8 and 1985 (d~,aregarding , inflation). This grotrth xill result froi an incrsaaed rste of invsatosnt over the next 4 years (22 percent of the GI~ accozding to baalc e~rperte). Thia rspid econosic e~cpanaion ahould allox sn increase, in ree~l terma~ of 2 percent psr year in per capita conau~gtioa and thus producs a noticeable increaae in the atsndazd of living. Tha Wor1d Bank aleo believsa that thia greKth can bs acootpliahed without produciug a deiicit~ in Bsnin~a balancs of pay~eAta. What xi,Il happ~n~ it believss~ ia that foreign a1d xill offset a~y tre~d~ dsfiait. It aay svan - happen that Benin xill be able to incrsaae ita rseervss of forsign sxchsnge during the aext !eN ye~rs. 'This xould rsault froa the ~act ttsat 85 psrcent ~ of all imestnenta in Benin xill bs ~ir~aaced by for~ign ce~pita.l. The other side of the coin ia obviously an incrseae in Bsnin�a forefgn indetytsdnssst the delrt eervice (the reps.~ent of loans), Mhich ia currently eq,uival~nt to 4.5 percent of the valne oP e~cporta~ xill by the sarly 1980�s aaount to 1.0 to Y5 percent of the value of exports~ This l~vel of indeb~edrlsaa-- xhich is coason for develo~ing conatries--is'viexed. by ths world Bank as "tolezable~ especially," the baalc adda, "xith the support of the Nigerian Gover~snt behind. the tMO ~~or inveatment projecta that ase planaed." The tKO pro3acts rafezzed tb involve the sugar and ceasnt irrduatriea. 27 . FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ; This vision of the future ia all the more comforting in viex of the fact ! that Bsnin ia one of the poorsa~ countriss in the xorldt 170 dol].ara per capita incone (1976 eatim.te). Tha picture of Benin~a pe,et ax~d prsesnt that the '~orlrl Bank'e expsrta paint is not all bright hoxevsr. Ecoaonic grorrth la a nox phsno~enon for genin. Per ca~pita incose haa been atagnant ior ~any year~ due principally to population groxth xhich remains at about 2.8 psrcent per year. Ths econoAic groxth that haa occurred ovar the la$t feW ysara ia esaentiallq due to tsede atid induetry. Agriculture~ xhich - still eaploys 60 percent of the Ko~k force~ did not incrsaae ita avsrage production betxeen 1972 and 1976, ; The i~rportance of the agricnltural sector is obvious~ both to the dis- tribution of incone and the standara of living for ths ~oet diaadvant~ged claases. Induatz-y employs only 2 percant of the active papulation (but its groxth rate kas about lI p~rcent per year bstKSen 1972 aad 1976). Ths reet of ths ; - papulation ia engaged in trede Which thua provide$ a~ploy~ent ror alaoet ; ~ 40 gercent of the active population. If one xere not axare of theae tWo Pacts one might think that Benin had already entered ths poet-~nduetrial ' era. In reality~ the aize of the tertiary sector ia explained and 3ustified in I part by tt~e nature of t,he tte.naport.ation syate~ t,ha,t connscts Benin Kith its neighbors~ particularly Niger and Nigeria. Ia the strategy that haa besn adtipted by the govern~ent in a~ttsra of ~ economic arid eocial develapnent responsive to Benin'a needa? Since 197~+ ~ the ob~ective of public officiala has been the nationalization of the ' " econo~r and greatsr state eontrol over all sactors of activity. The large ~ modern busines$ea are nox undsr governxent controlt xater s~d eleetricity~ be~nks, Puel distribution~ brsxeriea, textiles, etc. Nox the govet~n~ent ie ~ trying to reorganize the xvxe~l sector through the introduction of ne~+ institutionai provincial agenciee for svzal develapisnt a~d n~ex far~a of ' ~ coo~erstive production unite~ particnlarly in Borgou Province. ~ ~ As a result of thia extens9.on ~f the public sector one might expect to ~ diaoxgauization in govern~ental finaaces. Accosding to the World Bank~e ~ - re~port this haa not happened. Oa the contre~ry~ and thie la appasently otte ~ ef the moat positive pointa coneerning the nerr regi~e�s ~anage~ent, the , governaent~s finaaeial aitua.tion t~a isproved conaiderably over the laat ~ decade. ~ j The budgetary deficits Mhich hafl chasscterized the 1960'e and xhich had ; been financed by trsnsfer8 fro~ the F~ench traaaury he~ve bsea eli~insted. ; Grouth of govern~snt expenditurea haa besn controlled by the authoritiea ' ' pa~rticula,rlq by a ca~paign sgainat Maate ar~d i.nelYiciency. Ae ror gov~rn- ! nant receipta, they have been conaidersbly incz~sased aa a r0ault o! ths ~ groiott~ in i~port taxes aad inco~s ta~csa. The b~nk belisvea tl~t t~his ~ i 2g i t I FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ ~ i APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY prudence in the management of the public sector has given more strength to the economic g~owth. After coeipliments such as these the docuffient's authora are even freer in their criticis~ of soa~e aspects of the Cu2Terit 3-year plan for economic development (19'77-79). The principal reproach concerna the rate of investment set by the govern~nent for the firat 2 years: it would approach 60 perceat of the grosa national product. The experta feel that such a level is neither possible nor desirable~ it exceeda the level of valid pro~ecf.s, the capability for financing fron foreign ca.pital, aad the capacity of the country to abaorb the investment. The report goea so far - as to say that "The inclusion of this eaaggerated development progra.m in 'the plan dimini~hes the credibility o~ the document." The bank esti~ates that the level of investment that is posaible in on the order of ]25 billion CFA fre.ncs or about half of the figure praposed by the govern~ent in its plan (244 billion CFA frerics). The bank's report also criticizes the "export-substitution" orientation that the Beafn authoritiaf~ have given to thair economic developmsnt policy. Acc~niing to the bank, auch a policy, xhich conaista of broadening domestic markets rsther thar? orienting production toxatd t,he ezport maxkets~ xill bn seriously handicapped by the emall scale of Benin's economy. According to the expsrt,a at ths bank, Benin's in~dustrial experien.s ahoxs thst pro~sctd have aucceedsd xhsn they coabinsd the three folloxing conditious~ a ls=ge doneatic aad r~eighbo~ibg sa.rket~ Kell-develsped technology, a~l a modsst initial lewl ~f o~psrstions. In spite of these disagreements the iiorld Baak approves of the ma~ority of iuvesttenta prapoaed by the plan, all t,he xhile feeling that it xould be - xiser to stretch them out over a longer period of time. Thers ia hoxever ou~ _ se~3or pro3ect on xhich the bank staaps ita clear ~e?rk of disapproval~ tt~st - of sn oil refinery. , The report shoxs that Benin~s econonic develop~ent is still hindered by certain deficiencies in nanpower. "Thia observation may appear surprising~" the report reads, "for a country xhich has had, since World 4far II, a reputa.tion for aupplying all of French speaking Af'rica r?ith qualified ~ adminiatrative personnel." The repor~ makes no attempt to sxp].~.in ~his - paradox which has already been noted. in this publication (JEUNE Ab'AIQU~ No 97U). The raport confines itaelf to observing that it xill be neceasary to strengthen the system of education ani training. One of the biggest prnblems facing Benin, that of its relations xith its neighbors, and particularly with the largest of thea in terms of poxer, size, and resourcAS, Nigeria, ia dealt frith in a cautious manner by the i '+lorld Bank, The paragraph concerning t,his question is herexith quoted in almost its entiretye "Benin has traditionally played a role of trade and transportation Sn the region and events of the past several yeara have 29 FOR OFFICIt~L USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY demonatre.ted xell that the country has the capacity to turn the o�ppor- . tunities prnvided by ita neighbor$ to ita oxn adv~ntaga. Nevertheless a note of caution should be sounded. For example, the reduction in importa _ - effected by Nigeria during the apring of 19?8 had direct repercussions on the Banin trensportation economy aid the saae xill be txve as Nigeria , develops its oxn ports. Over the long term the current plan to eatabliah a joint customs union xith a common foreign duty, combined rrith the exiat- ence of a laxge industrial base in Higeria~ could easily lead to aignificant imports to Benin from its neighbor. Neverthelesa a serall-scale aad undiversified economy auch ss that Pound in Benin must necessarily keep the lid on foreign inports and the policies oY Pree trede that have benefited this orientation in the past should be retainad." Is this trede liberalism~ in the long run~ compatible xi~.th the economic nationalism that is sought by Lieutenant Colonel Kerekou's regime? The World Bank stoPs short of asking _ the queation. But would it ha.ve been a valid question within the ~ran~exork of the report? ~ ~ Generally speaking hox credible is this report? According to its preface the contents of the report xere diacussed xith the Benin government and some changes xere made to the text. In other Worda the report xas noic able to ~o too far in ita criticism. But on the of.her he~nd it is a confidential document for "restricted" distnibution, a11 of Which serves to increase the confidence tha.t it ia due. In at~y case it haa marit in - that it raises some of the principal problems that ase fa,ced bq Benin'a ecano~y and it is thought provoking Por anyone xho is concerned about Benin's future. COPYRIGHT e Jeune Afrique GRUPJIA 19'j'9 ~ 7779 CSOa 4400 ; ; - I 1 ~ ~ I i I ~ ; _ ~ ~ ~ i 30 ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ I . I APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY BENIN BRIEFS STUDENT UNREST--Beninese authorities are trying to find a way to calm student unrest which has disturbed the university the last 3 months, mainly over the _ . problem of the poor transportation system. After reacting vigorously by ~ calling the complainers "anarchists" and "agent~ of imperialism," the government is now playing down the situation. A special commission of the Beninese People's Party central committee fias reportedly been formed to "find concrete solutions" before the election scheduled for 20 November. [Excerpt] [Paris JEUNE AFRIQUE in ~'rench 26 Sep 79 p 35] CSO: 4400 � 31 ~ FOR OFFICIn:. USE ONLY , . ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CHAD - POINTS INCLUDED IN LAGOS AGREEMENT Paris MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS in French 31 Aug 79 p 2363 [Text] Here are the nine points of the "Lagos Agreement" signed during the night of 20-21 August by the 11 Chadian groups in the capital of Nigeria: First point: The signatories call for an immediate cease-fire in Chad and request that the neighboring countries refrain from interfering in Chadian domestic affairs. A 100-km zone around Ndjamena will be demil- , itarized. The cease-fire will be controlled by neutral troops composed of contingents from several countries, excluding those bordering on Chad. The neutral force will also operate in the cities of Abeche, Faya, Moundou and Sahr and will be responsible for protecting "important Chadian personages." . Second point: Creation of an independent control commission responsible for guaranteeing enforcement of the cease-fire and seeing that the neutral- ity of the national radio is respected until a transition government is formed. This commission will be presided over by the secretary general of the OAU or by his representative and will be placed under the moral authority of the president of the transition government. It will be made up of two representatives from each participating or observing coun- try represented at the Lagos Conference and by a delegate from each Chad- ian group that is a signatory of the agreement. Third point: Use of any clandestine radio station is forbid3en. Fourth point: Release of all political prisoners within 15 days follow- ing the forming of the transition government, and amnesty for all polit- ical exiles. Fifth point: The temporary r~ational union government will be made up of members of all signatory groups, with an 18-month term. The temporary . government will apply a political program leading to free elections that will give birth to a new government. 32 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Sixth point: Dissolution of the Armed Forces and creation of an in- tegrated National Army. ~ Eighth point [as published]: The agreement to become effective immed- iately. ~ I~inth point: A copy of the agreement to be sent to the OAU. The signatoxies of the agreement are: Abdoulaye Adam Dana (First "Volcan" Army) Fatcho Balam (National Democratic Union) Mohammed Abba Said (First Army) ~ Acyl Ahmat (First Army of the People, Revolutionary Democratic Council) Abba Siddik (original FROLINAT~.[Chadian Nationa.l Liberation Front]) ~ Moussa Medela ('!Western Forces" of~FROLINAT) ' _ Hadjero Senoussi (FROLINAT�) ` Aboubakar Abdel Rahmane (People.'s Liberation Movement of Chad") Goukouni Ouaddeimi ("Peopje's Armed Forces"--FAP) Hissein Habre ("Armed Forces of the North"--FAN) ' Wadal Abdel Kader Kamougue ("Armed Forces of Chad"--FAT) ~ ~ COPYRIGHT: Rene Moreux et Cie., Paris, 197J ' 8946 CSO: 4400 , ~ ~ ; ; ~ i . i' 33 + FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CHAD LAGOS AGREII~4ENT VIEWED AS MODERATELY HOPEFUL Paris MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS in French 31 Aug 79 pp 2363, 2365 [Editorial: "The Lagos Agreement (21 August 1979): Moderate Hope for Chad"] [Text] Most Chadian circles are in agreement in considering the results of the latest Lagos conference "unexpected." And indeed, for the first time they have seen, in addition to the strongly affirmed reconciliation between , the representatives of the north and the gouth, the beginning of a geniiine _ plan for rebuflding the state that is likely to straighten out the country's economy, which today is plunged into "total chaos," to use the expression of Goukouni Ouaddeimi himself. However, the euphoria that followed upon the announcement of the agreement in Nd~amena was succeeded by certain reserva- tions and the feeling that it will be necessary to await the forming of a new government--the date for which is still uncertain--and its first measures, in order to appraise the chances for success of the new charter and the solidity of the reconciliation between the two most outstanding representatives of the north and south, Goukouni Quaddeimi and Col Abdelkader Kamougue. Among the rappr~chement factors may be noted first the desire to look for a solution among Chadians by limiting as much as possible the influence of two too-powerful neighbors who might be suspected of wanting to "vassalize" - Chad: Nigeria and Libya. The formzr did not hesitate late last April to order an embargo on oil deliveries, in order to weaken the resolution of Goukouni and Habre, who had been opposed at the second Lagos conference to - recognizing certain groups they had judged to be too receptive to the interests of the Nigerians. As for Libya, she sti11 occupies the Aouzou strip, and during the first 2 weeks of June she armed the columns of "Libyan mercenaries" who in the north approached to within 15 km of Faya-Largeau before being cut to pieces by FROLINAT troops commanded personally by Goukouni Ouaddeimi. To counterbalance their influence, three French-speaking states were invited and participated in the second Lagos conference beside Chad's six neighboring states: Senegal, Benin and the Congo. Likewise, the neutral ~orce that is to be responsible for controlJLing the cease-fire in Nd~amena, Abeche, Faya-Largeau and Sahr and protecting "important Chadian responsibilities" is t4 include no contingent from the countries bordering on Chad. It will be furnished by Benin, the Congo and Guinea, Senegal having refused. 34 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02108: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ On the other hand, Goukouni Ouaddeimi has publicly acknowledged the errors committed after the second Kano conference by the government to which he belonged. "Those of us who held the po~aer in Nd~amena," he has said, "made decisions that were against the principle of African solidarity." Thoae unfortunate decisions explain the French-speaking countries' reluctance to recognize the Chad Government's representatives at the Kigali Franco- - African conference and the refusal to the OAU to allow it ta sit at the Monrovia summit. The most serious error was the attempt by the Ndjamena goverrrment to subjugate the south militarily at the time of its military - expedition from Bongor toward Pala and Kelo. Hissein Habre's troops were routed there on the road from Lai by the units of the Chad regular army, fighting in their native country under the energetic~command of _ - Colonel Kamougue. - Goukouni and Habre must have concluded that it would be very difficult militarily--if not impossible--ior the northerners to conquer the south militarily, just as peaceful conqu~st of the north by southern cadres had been showa to be unfruitful. ; As conqueror of Hissein Habre's troops, the south speedily strengthened its unity under the vigorous i.mpetus of Colonel Kamougue, and restored its ~ economic potential. Cut off from Ndjamena, it easily formed a new administration wiCh cadres who had withdrawn from the north and the capital and come to seek refuge in their native country. From then on the south was in a situation where it was negotiating as an equal with the Ndjamena ~ goverr~ment, which for its part was weakened by internal dissension, but at the heart of which Goukouni Ouaddeimi's prestige was strengthened by his victory in the north, whereas Hissein Habre's was much damaged by his defeat in the south. The Chadian delegates of all persuasions present in Lagos drew the logical conclusion from this power struggle, while entriisting the highest responsi- bility to the country's two "strong men." Goukouni Ouaddeimi was made president of Chad, Colonel Kamougue vice president. In their persons are represented the Moslem populations of the north and the Christian ; or animist populations of the south. Together they have proclaimed their reconciliation on high. "With your agreement I am certain that we will succeed in uniting Chad," Goukouni - Ouaddeimi stated to Colonel Kamougue, while the latter answered him, _ "Today you are the president of Chad. You are from the north, you are a : - Goran, but Goukouni is the president of Chad." He had previously affirmed "The commitment is made to serve the country ' selflessly from now on. There will be no more south or north. Speaking on behalf of the Chadian Armed Forces and the people of the southern zone, - I assure you that we are in favor of unity for Chad." For their part, the other groups represer.ted in Lagos unanimously declared their acceptance without restrictions of the nine points of the agreement. 35 ~ ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY , i" r APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007102/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY The understanding between Goukouni Ouaddeimi arrd Colonel Komougue and the continuation of the unanimity manifested in the Nigerian capital appear to be indiepensable to enforcing the agreement, and that condition alone demonstrates ita fragility. As the Ivorian daily FRATERNITE-MATIN said, "The 11 Chadian groupa, including thoae wl~ose le~ders repreaent only their own ambitione, have thus agreed to make peace. We would have liked to write that that country is on the threshold of peace," but this is Chad _ "and zt is al ~~ys possible that there is someone there who, because he did not fall heir to the position he expected in the government, will take to the bush in the desert." The difficulties involved in er~forcing the agreement are underlined by a number of diplomatic observers in ftdjamena. They are particularly foresee- able in the matter of forming a government charged with preparing for elections to be held in 18 months' time. What place will be reserved - in it for Hissein Habre, who until then is d~efense minister, and of whom - it is repeatedly said that he has voiced serious reservations on several - points of the compromise drawn up at Lagos? _ The departure of the French troops, of whom the Paris government reminded us that it had already decided to withdr~w them and that it had kept them there only on the express request of the Ndjamena government, was demanded, says the Lagos communique, by "all parties" present at the conference. According to the same rumors circulating in Ndjamena, Hissein Habre was fiercely in favor of their being maintained until the neutral forces are put in place. Thus he joins with the position of the Cameroonian President Ahid~o who, on his return from Lagos, where he attended the conference, published a couununique on 23 August in which he characterizes as "unrealistic and unrealizable in the near future" certain of the agree- ment's clauses, especially those concerning the putting in place of neutral i forces "without this being called into question by the countries that are supposed to supply the troops." Consequently, President Ahid~o is hoping I that Chad's new authorities will ask that the French troops be maintained - ~ "until the principal decisions of Lagos are implemented." Among those decisions is the creating of an integrated national army. Thus it will be necessary to combine troops as different as those of the _ FROLINAT, which are trained and accustomed to conducting desert operations akin to guerrilla warfare, and those of the former regular army, more traditionalist and closer to conventional armies of the Western type. Moreover, they have confronted each other in the past. The task will ba a difficult one. Drawing up a foreign and a domestic polir_y will also be difficult. Goukouni Ouaddeimi belongs to the FROL'INAT, which proclaims itself a revolutionary movement that demands socialisza. Colonel Kamougue has the reputation of being closer to a liberal system of the Western kind. I 1 36 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007102/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Abroad there are two unknowns: the attitudes of Nigeria and Libya. Together they have at their disposal, among the 11 groups, "proteges" with whose help they could exert pre:srure on Ndjamena. Nigeria, whose military contingent in Chad left unfortunate memories among ~ the population there, is supporting Aboukabar Abdel Rahmane's People's Liberation Movement of Chad. In the recent past the government of Lagos has shown that it intended~tc~ make its conception of what the Chadian reconciliation requires prevail. As for Libya, whose occupation of the north of Chad was surprisingly not contested by anyone at Lagos, only a common front of the ma~ority--if not the whole--of the groups represented at Lagos, appears capable of dissuading her from renewing her attempt to control the north with the help of bands armed by means of Libya's attention. COPYRIGHT: Rene Moreax et Cie., Paris, 1979 ~ 8946 CSO: 4400 - - ' i i ~ ~ ~ ; ~ ; ; 37 ~ i FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ' i . ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY EQUATORIAL GUINEA SOME MYSTERIES STILL REMAINING CONCERNING COUP Par~.s JEUNE AFRIQUE in French 29 Aug 79 pp 16, 17 /Article by Pierre Gardel: "'W~e Are Free."'/ LText/ A red star gleams on the light khaki uniform. The offi~er, a second lieutenant, carries a simple scarlet plastic plaque which replaces the traditional array of decorations. These Equatorial Guinean military personnel are...in Gabon, at Cocobeach, a border town without a border town's characteristic features. No customs office, no visible police. A short beach where coco trees are few and far between. Invited to the celebration of Gabon's national holiday (17 August), the 'Equatos' as they are called here, didn't arrive until 18 August, to the discomfiture of the local authorities--deputy, prefect, and customs director--who hadn't planned on paying for beer two evenings in a row. _ The 'guests' came by boat from the Guinea district of Kogo, the other side _ of this arm of the sea. In the building of the Democratic Party of Gabon (PDG), they exchanged toasts and clinked glasses freely to liberty regained, to the arrest of the ex-dictator Macias Nguema. Still at Cocobeach, but a few hundred meters (and three bottles) away; a rough shed sheltered the misery of Luis, Antonio and Bartolome. During ~ the times of the 'Senors' (the Spanish), the first of the trio had guided planes along the runways of Malabo airport, the capital of Equatorial Guinea. Dismissed with the rest of the staff, he then worked in a textile shop which liquidated, slowly but surely, the colonial stock. Once the funds of the Equatorial branch of Mata were exhausted, Luis had to go back to Kogo and return to a subsistence economy before finally choosing exile.� He has - - lived too long at Cocobeach to not traffi,c a bit in soap, oil, or other product become rare in Macias' Guinea. Antonio and Bartolome had arrived the evpning before. Fang before being Equatorial Guineans, they had come to Cocobeach to see Gabonese relatives. All were afraid to talk. They gl~nced furtively at a local male nurse, a fellow national who belonged to the family of dictator Macias, but above all they feared administrative hassles with Gabonese authorities. 38 FOR OEFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY According to them, everything was calm in Guinea. At Kogo there wasn't _ even any revengeful settling of accounts. "People we~e in Macias' militia because they had to be. Anyhow, since the coup d'etat their life doesn't . seem to have changed any." At the words 'work', 'food', they responded with sad smiles and an awkward silence. But for all that there is no question of throwing doubt on the importance ~ of the coup d'etate, 'E1 Golpe,'. On this subject they became enthusiastic. "We are free." 'The rest will come once the government is constituted. Macias? "H~ shouldn't be killed, but kept a prisoner the rest of his life. He should suffer as much as he has made us suffer." At Libreville, at the entrance of a popular noisy dance hall, the Equatorial Guineans are a little hastier. By Radio-Malabo they learned of tlie arxest , of the former dictator. To questions abaut the fate he deserves they , responded by an expressive gesture, a rapid movement of the hand across the throat. Here tou, the past of the new master of Guinea close to the dictator didn't seem to bother anyone. "We doci't have the right to doubt the authors of the liberation." Teodoro Obian Nguema is a'good' man, ' according to a refugee who remembers having studied with him at the college La Salle de Bata. He declared his intention of returning soon to his ' - liberated country, but at the same time he intended to go back to his work in Port-Gentil after his vacation in Libreville. No one doubts that Equatorial Guinea has been liberated, bu*_ a return to the country has not begun. But the notables who ~urrounded President Macias and who first fled to Gabon, were able to leave. This is notably the case of the minister of the economy, Oyono, of the commander of the military sector of Bata, of Macias' personal physician, and even of the ex-dictator's first wife (pregnant) who passed the frontier with six suitcas~es and chests full of money, immediately confiscated by the Gabonese government and . remitted to a delegation of the new Equatorial Guineas regime come to Libreville on 7 August. Among the Equatorial Guineans other news circulates, not always verifiable. , According to the rum~rs, Macias Nguema was arrested on 11 August, alone in the forest, carrying a suitcase stuffed with money. Wounded on the hand on ' this occasion, he was taken to Bata. As for the famous Cubans, they seem - to have disappreared into the landscape. As much as it is believed that ; the putsch had been rapid and without rough edges, it is believed that its success is due to treason by the Cubans in Macias' immediate entourage. ; But no one has seen a Cuban or the body of one--even after th.~ hard fighting at Ncue and during Macias' counteroffensive towards Bata. Sor~e think they left the country long ago, not being suited by Macias' Marxist-Leninism. ' Others think they are still there in their roles as instructors and ~ technicians, refusing to take part in the fighting. Mysterious Cubans in a coup d'etat which has not yet unveiled.all its mysteries. ~ f COPYRIGHT: Jeune Afrique GRUPJIA 1979 8860 ~ CSO: 4400 39 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ ; , ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY EQUATORIAL GUINEA TEODORO NGUEMA`S POLITICAL IDEAS SAID TO BE UNKNOWN Paris JEUNE AFRIQUE in French 29 Aug 79 p 17 /Article by Pierre Gardel: "A Last Minute Democrat"/ /Text/ "The dog has changed his collar, but he is sti11 tied up." The expression comes from Antonio Ondo, one of ~he principal Equatorial Guinean opposiCion party refugees in Madred. He and many others are not yet confident in the new strong man of Equatorial Guinea. To be sure, Teodoro Nguema has overthrown the tyrant Macias Ngyema, but has that earned him the lable of democrat? He who today presides over the Revolutionary Military Council was not loo long ago the vice minister of defense of the fallen regime. And this position and the confidence it supposes explains the success of the coup d'etat. Teodoro, by whom dPmocracy has arrived, in effect di'rected the forces of repression of the country that he has just liberated. In December 1969 he was present in the area where a Fang, two Nigerians, and a Bubi were executed. He was there as a military chief, while the rest of the public had been forced there by the guard. His presence had also been noted at the executions which took place in the Place of the Clock, at Bata, etc. Can he take refuge in "orders from higher up"? Some doubt it. "Juan Manual Tray*, one of those rare Guinean military professionals, directed the president's - - military establishment, Fori~unato Okenve occupied the position of secret~ry gener`_1 of defense, but they had no power. The simple Lieutenant Teodoro was in fact the real head." It was he who masterminded the elimination of ~ those Guineans trained by the Spanish Army. In 1965 there were 11 cadets to the milttary academy of Saragossa: Teod~ro of course, but also Maximiliano, shot in 1970 in the prison of Santa Isabel, Jesue Eguoro, clnbbed to death in 1972. But Theodoro's star never checked in its rise. Because of his kinship with Macias? Without a doubt. But also because of his role in stopping the conspiracy fomented in 1973 by the Britisher F. Forsyth. *Afterwards he was placed under house arrest at his residence in the village of Musola. , 40 FOR OFFICItiL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ; Only recently did the future strong man exhibit a certain independence. He played mediator between the a~l-powerful master and those foreigners who had the misfortune of falling into his hands, such as the captain of the ; Spanish ship Ukola. From that it could be deduced that Teodoro Ngyema was pro-West, but, finally, no one could pride himself on knowing his political ! ideas. The new regime has carefully refrained from any precise declaration. ~ Even the announcement of the liberation of political prisoners has not ~ sufficed to convince those familar with Macias' pretensions to liberalism. i For if Teodoro Nguema has proved himself as a putschist, he must still ~ prove himself as a democrat. ~ i _ COPYRIGHT: Jeune Afrique GRUPJIA 1979 ; ~ i 8860 ~ i CSO: 4400 ~ . � i I ~ i ~ i ~ ' i I. 1 - i ~ . I ~ i ~ i ' i I , . i 41 i FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ; 1 ; . ~ , . , _ ; APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 . FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY EQUATORIAL GUINEA AFRICA LOSES ONE MORE DICTATOR Paris JEUNE AFRIQUE in French 15 Aug 79 pp 20, 21 /Article by Hamza Kaidi: "One Dictator Less"/ LExcerpts/ Will 1979 enter into history as a black year for tyrants? In 6 months, five despots have fallen one after the other. After the ' bloody regimes of Pol Pot in Cambodia, M~ohamed Reza Pahlavi in Iran, Idi Amin in Uganda and Somoza in Nicaragua, that of one of the planet's most sinister scourges fell in its turn. On 5 July Equatorial Guinea radio - announced in a brief communique that a military junta led by Col Teodoro Nguema Mbazago, vice minister of defense, had overthrown the dictator on the evening of 3 July. _ Cousin and close collaborator of the fallen dictator, Colonel Nguema, who frankly acknowledges Marxist-Leninist leanings, was a student at Spain's Military Acadeny at Saragossa. He distinguished himself by his zeal in suppressing an attempted coup d'etat in 1972. Nor did he hesitate to . eliminate his 11 classmatee, ~ne by one, among whom figures another dignatory of the regime, Jesus Esgoro, minister of justice from 1968 to 1973. In 1976 he denounced a budding conspiracy against 'Guinea's unique miracle,' which won him promotion to the rank of vice minister of defense and the governorship of the island of Fernando Po, renamed Macias Nguema Island. This man who had served the dictator Macias Nguema so well, today presents himself as a liberator. Calling himself Teodoro Nguema Mbazago, he leads _ a~unta whose members are also mostly Nguema, and is thus the second chief of state of Equatorial Guinea. Independent since 12 October 1968, after close to two centuries of Spanish colonialism, Equatorial Guinea`is composed of two distinct territorial _ regions: the Rio Muni, a 26,017 sq km rectangle squeezed between Gabon and Cameronn, facing the Atlantic, and the island territories or" which Macias Nguema holds the capital city Malabo (formerly Santa Isabel). In 1973 the pop~lation of this state of 28,051 sq km was estimated at 300,000. Since then there has been a steady decline as thousands of Equatorial = Guineans fled the country's Cerrorist regime. Nearly 70,000 found refuge in 42 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Gabon, 40,000 in Cameroon, 8,000 in Spain and 5,000 in Nigeria. Leading his rival Bonifacio Qndo Edu by a short nose, Macias Nguema, elected chief of state in 1968, did not delay in getting rid of his rivals physically. His collaborators and partisans, anyone who might cross him, paid the price _ of a thrist for power. Macias then turned against the leaders of other political gr~ups whom he accused of conspiring against him. This was the beginning of a series of assassinations. Tn 1970 he created a political party at first baptised � PUN (Party of National Unity) and then PUNT (National Workers Party). He ' proscribed all other parties and concentrated all powers into his own hands, proclaiming himself president for life, 'Guinea's unique miracle,' leader of the nation and the party, grand master of education, science and culture, commander in chief of the army, minister of defense, etc. - - His relationships with other countries were more curious yet. He readily practiced an official racket: after a Soviet airplane fell on Equatorial , Guinea territory, Moscow had to pay a fine of $75,000 for damage to the mountain. Spain was only able to obtain the release of six priests through a ransom of $100,000. Five passengers of a French helicopter which had to make a forced landing were released only after payment of $25,000. - In spite of all this, the Western nations observed total silence about the misdeeds of the despot. All the news from Equatorial Guinea was censored by the Madrid government up until the death of Franco. The United States was the first to break with the government of Malabo, in 1976, followed by Spain in 1977. Only France continued good relations with the Macias regime, imitated, it's true, by the OAU, who hardly dared bring up the least misdeed of the despot. Although Moscow had severed diplomatic relations with the dictator--who had adopted an additional title, 'grand inquisitor of colonialism'--it continued tQ supply oil and military goods to Equatorial Guinea. In exchange, Macias granted a base for its 'fishing fleet' at San Carlos, 20 km from Malabo. As its part Cuba maintained a sizeable technical mission which assured the continued functioning of the airports at Bata and Malabo, the electrical power centers, and the two radio stations of the country. Moreover, the army and Macias' guard were officered ' by Cuban instructors. During the war with Angola in 1975, the base at ~ San Carlos served as a staging area for military goods destined for the MPLA. The Soviet cargo carriers left armaments there which were then picked up by small Angolan boats. But the relationship between the Kremlin and the master of Equatatorial Guinea Guinea was never cordial. In spite of their insistence, the Soviets , were never able to get concessions for research and development of cobalt and wolfram (tungsten). The contract for the base at San Carolos itself had to be renewed every year. 43 I , ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ' APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY In the end, the Soviets got tired of their burdensome protege, especially after finding the ear of his faithful lieutenant more receptive. But what could the vice minister of defense do, governor of the territory where the capital was situated though he was? The soldiers of Teodoro Nguema were armed only with qome old Mausers dat:ing from World War II and had little ammunition. In February 1977 a Bulgarian ship, the M.S.Bulgam, unloaded a mysterious cargo. A box accidentally opened revealed abou.t 20 grenade throwers. In August 1977, an airplane from the Czechoslovakian air lines deposited at Malabo airport a cargo including, among other things, about 20 Czech 7.62 mm machine guns. In March 1978, 500 AK47 Kalashnikov combat guns were sent by the Czechoslovakian firm Omnipol to a Polish port, from which they were _ loaded onto the M.S.Ustinov, destination Equatorial Guinea. In January 1979 relations between the dictator, who was then taking long - vacations on the continent, and his vice minister, suddenly deteriorated. _ Only the lack of communications (there was only a small boat to serve as liaison between the island and the continent)_prevented them from being unraveled. Then, in August, the crisis came to a head. Col Nguema Mbazogo put his wife on the first plane for Madrid, where she arrived on 2 August. _ The next day he took action. For the moment we do not know what means of transportation had been used, and abave all, who had put them at the dis- position of Colonel Nguema. The garrison at Bata, around 300 men, led by - Cuban instructors, didn't move. B~st the putschists were disag�reeably surprised to find the dictator absent. He was at Mongo, his birthplace, about 5 km from the Gabon frontier. A helicopter (the Cubans must have had a strong hand in all the aeronautical material) was put at the disposal of the insurgents. The detachment for Mango had no Lrouble in encircling Macias' bunker, protected by his personal guard of 70 men led by 18 Cubans. He attempted to resist, refusing to surrender. But on 6 August it was confirmed that all the armed forces had join~~ the putschists. The Nguema 'miracle` faded away. With Macias Nguema's disappearance from the scene, Africa sees itself rid of two vampires in the space of 3 months. An old saying says there is ~ ~ never two without a third. When will the third be? " COPYRIGHT: Jeune Afrique GRUPJIA 1979 8860 CSO: 4400 44 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY MADAGASCAR BRI EF S MILITARY AGRICULTURAL OPERATION--The OFFICIAI~ JOURNAI~ has published a decree establishing the Military Agricultural Production Qperation, Omipra. Omipra is a public body respcnsible for various crop developments and 100,000 new hectares of rice'-growing. The army is in charge of the operation. [Paris MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS in French 28 Sep 79 p 2655] SOVIET EQUIPMENT SPECIALISTS--About 10 Soviet technicians who will work on maintenance of tractors and other agricultur.al equipment from the USSR are expected to arrive soon. Their arrival is covered by a contract signed 6 September by the Malagasy rural development and agrarian reform minister and Zapchasteexport/Tractorexport representative, Baziliev. [Paris MARCHES TROPICAIIX ET MEDITERRANEENS in French 28 Sep 79 p 2655] CSO: 4400 _ 45 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY _ ftIiUll~S IA LIFESTYLE OF j~iITES CHANGED Paris JEUNE AFRIQUE in French 12 Sep 79 pp 38-39 , ~ex] A disillusioned white said the other day at the Gol~ Club bar in Salisbury, "I really don't know what country I could take refuge in." The fact is there reall,y are no more countries where you can find blacks who earn a pittance by shining ,yokr shoes. Here in Rhodesia itself a~ter these miserable elections, you no longer can find even one who wants to push your Rolls, which has run out of gas, to the nearest gas station and wait . in line for you for a dollar, because o~ the fuel shortage created by those dirty Arabs: ho doubt, all the luxurious joys of living have not yet dis- appeared in the 3 months since Mr Smith handed over the funda- mental leadership oP the country to the blacks. However, one had been warned ~or a long time that any concession to these apes would cause a ridiculous drop in the standard of living. One has certainly tried to find a middle ground, so that the whiice minority could actually continue to control some puppet black ministers, so that one could~ all the same~ have his breakfast or his whisky served when he wanted it and one could have his car washed for nothing. IIut it is dreadful that Abel Muzorewa who was considered sub- missive and reasonable, dared to establish a minimum hourly wa~e for his black brothers. And nevertheless, the experts (some whites, the only experts in the country, obviously) had assured that the country's tottering economy, could not support this measure. Fortunately, in fact, one continues to enjoy agricultural workers, maids and gardeners for next to nothing: The fact is that, despite wretched wages~ there are a,lways people looking for work. There are alwa,ys even two or three bla.cks who scramble for every job o~fered. But precisely this 46 FOR OFFICIaT. LTSE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FJR OFFICIAL USE ONLY failure of his employment policy has cost Mr Aiuzorewa the sup- port of a large part of those who were responsible for his suc- cess ~in the elections. So that a large number of those who voted in April for the Methodists who graduated from American ; universits.es are now ready to side with their enemies the guer- , rillas or at least agree with them in believing that the bishop',s government has sold out to the whites. Which does not improve things flor the latter. '~It is not a question of driving the whites out of here, says Stephen Nguru, a young black, 27 years old, who has a wife and a child and who, having just lost his job in a factory, contents himself for the moment with the meager wages of a caddie on a : golf course. We do not want to carry out a revolution. We . merely want mo~e jobs, more money to live better, what then: - If not, we will get rid of the bishop." Under a sweltering sun, Mr Nguru earned 650 CFA francs for an ~ 18 hole game, from which he must deduct 125 francs f or r.is round - trip in a bus frora his house to the golf course, located in a ; Salisbury suburb. That is enough for him to support his family - 2 or 3 days. But he recognizes he is lucky, f or there are some- _ times 30 caddies at the gol~ club waiting vainly to be hired. Reverend Muzorewa �-~ured. the country, asking his black brothers ' to be patient. But his problem is that he must spend 1.5 million dollars a day to conduct the campaign against the Patriotic I~ront guerrillas a,nd that the West stubbornly persists in refusing to , lift the sanctions imposed on Smith's regime--and the latter are ~ very poorly supported by a black population which has been wait- ing for more than 20 years to take over power. ~ It is enough to walk in a supermarket to realize the distance ; which has to be covered for the living standards of the blacks ; and whites to be approximately equal. On Saturday morning, one ; sees white ~amilies pile up meat and fresh vegetables in the ; wheeled baskets at prices which would be enou~h to tempt Euro- pean and American housewives. At the checkout exits, young ! blacks almost fight each other to carry the groceries o~ these ~ ladies and gentlemen to the parking lot and stow them away in the trunlc of a cadillac ~or paltry tips. ; Domestic help, which the whites value the most~ earn 5,000 to ! 15,000 CFA francs a month, ~ low enough wage to allow the most ~ poorly paid whi~es to have their boy or maid at home. Of~icial ~ statistics indicate that the whites employ about 150~000 blacks ~ as domestics. Now since less than 250,000 whites remain in Rhodesia today, that means more than one domestic per home. , ~ ~ 47 . FOR CFFICIAL USE O1V'LY j I ~ . . . . , ~ . . o.... APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Most of the latter worlc b days a week, getting up at dawn to serve tea and only goin~ to bed late in the evening a~ter havin~ ~ finished the dishes. In addition, the maids' rooms have no light or heat most o~ the time. The whites are sure of it: the blacks adore their white employers. Why certainly: The pro~f of it is the condolences they publish when one of them is executed by the guer.rillaa or in a criminal attack. Nevertheless, the courts hear every day the complaints of the blacks about ciiscriminatory treatment or racist remarks. No doubt, such behavior still exists elsewhere. However, the ap~eals of Rev~erend Muzorewa, asking the whites in Zimbabwe- - Rhodesia to change their attitud~s, will be useless~ so long as - political and economic power is not transferred into thQ hands of the blacks. In spite of all the conferences and international pressures and in spite of the guerrillas, Smith and his clique have definitely decided to resist that, as l~ng as possible... no doubt, until death. One could repeat a famous slogan of the Algerian war: "the suitcase or the coffin." But ~ahere can they _ go? riy dear, even South Africa becomes unlivable for a lady ~.nd a gentleman from Salisbury: COPYI~IGTiT : Jeune ~ f rique GRU'?JIA 1979 8490 CSO: 4400 48 FOR OFFICI~,L L'SE OIv'LY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02148: CIA-RDP82-44850R000100104425-2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY 0 SD~L~I WSLF LEADER DISCUSSES OGADEN LIBERATION STRUGGLE Tokyo ASAHI SHIMBUN in Japanese 24 Sep 79 Morning Edition p 6 OW [Report by Masataka Ito on interview with Abudulahi Hassan Mohamud, secretary general of the West Somalia Liberation Front, in Ogaden; date not given] [Text] --Ogaden's area is 150,000 square km, and it has a population of 2.5 million. Harar, Ethiopia, was the capital of the Somali people, but it was occupied by the Ethiopians in the late 19th century. There had been no clear boundary between Ethiopia and Somalia until after World War II. Even now most Ethiopians in Ogaden are either government officials, soldiers or merchants. Ogaden is a typical colony. ~ --When the Ethiopian Government began collecCing taxes in Ogaden in 1958, the Somali there for the first time realized that they were under Ethiopian rule. So they immediately organized the West Somalia Libera- tion Front [WSLF] and began to fight against *_he division dispatched by Emperor Haile Selassie. The armed struggle was launched in 1963, much earlier than the armed struggles in Rhodesia and Namibia. - --I cannot tell the size of the guerrilla force. All I can say is that there is not a single indigenous Ethiopian in Ogaden, and the whole population can become a fighting force. At least 20 percent of the dis- placed people have taken up arms as regulars or militiamen. Their weapons are rifles, handgrenades and landmines. --Approximately 20,000 Soviet and Cuban Croops are stationed in Ethiopia. The main force of Cuban troops is in Ogaden. The enemies r~re holed up in cities with their communication lines cut. Eighty percent of Ogaden is in the hands of the WSLF. --�We are receiving aid from Islamic countries, but I cannot identiry them. Reporter's note: The WSLF has missions in Somalia, Syria, Iraq and Algeria, and apparently these countries are providing aid to the WSLF. CSO: 4120 END 49 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/08: CIA-RDP82-00850R000100100025-2