PROJECT 91002. SUMMARY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: STARGATE
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP96-00791R000200200010-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: November 4, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 3, 2004
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: January 14, 1991
• Content Type: SUMMARY

Approved For Release 2004/08/25 : CIA-RDP96-00791 R000?3002W-4CL~ Ss r
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PROJECT 91002 -=--~
14 JAN 91
SUMMARY
(S/NF/LIMDIS) TASK: Describe key events/incidents
significant to the Iraqi situation for the near term period
(7-31 Jan 91).
2. (U) PRIOR REPORTING: This is a general follow-up to
tasking for project 90104 as reported on 30 Oct 1990 and on 6 Nov
1991
7 J
.
an
1990. Project 91002 was initiated on
3. (U) RESPONSES:
a. (U) SOURCE 025:
(1) (U) DATE OF INFORMATION: 7 Jan 91
(2) (S/NF/LIMDIS) DATA SUMMARY:
(a) Peace Talks:
- Peace talks will fail and will resume in
the Middle East in the March time frame.
(b) War situation:
- War will break out in February and last
2-3 months:
o US casualties will occur (700-2000),
mostly in Kuwait.
o Hussein will eventually withdraw from
Kuwait.
o War will be fast and furious.
- By April, Iraq will have a new leader.
Some US troops will be in Kuwait
through
August.
b. (U) SOURCE 049:
(1) (U) DATE OF INFORMATION: 12-13 January 1991.
(2) (S/NF/LIMDIS) DATA SUMMARY:
(a) War situation:
- War outbreak is imminent.
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- Great indecision or bewilderment mood
exists (on both sides)
- There seems to be an older relative of
Hussein who may (or should) emerge that is in
a position to influence and possibly negate
Hussein's stance.
- This person (possibly an uncle) was very
adept at maneuvering members of Hussein's
family, and had great influence on Hussein
when he was a teenager.
c. (U) SOURCE 079:
(1) (U) DATE OF INFORMATION: 14 January 1991.
(2) (S/NF/LIMDIS) DATA SUMMARY:
(a) War Situation:
- President Bush- will announce evening of 14
January 1991 that there will not be a war
with Iraq.
- Hussein agreed to some type of
negotiation.
- Iraqi-troops will remain ii Kuwait for the
near future, but they will eventually be
removed within the next 2-3 months.
- Some small skirmishes (on water) may occur
Us
Situation will remain tense.
Yemen will be a source of trouble for the
(b) Terrorist Attacks:
None are perceived (in the US) in the near
future.
4. (S/ND/LIMDIS) COMMENTS:
a. Of above, source 079 is most experienced.
b. This project will be kept current with frequent updates.