'TOP-TEN' LIST

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: STARGATE
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP96-00791R000200190075-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: November 4, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 19, 2000
• Sequence Number: 75
• Publication Date: June 19, 1995
• Content Type: MEMO

Science Applications International Corp. -[phone]- Created: Tuesday, June 20,199608:30- Page 1 of 5
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The Cognitive Sciences Laboratory
330 Cowper Street, Suite 200, Palo Alto, CA 94301
t Voice: 415.327.2007 - Fax: [phone]
An Employee-Owned Company e-mail: [e-mail]
Memorandum
SG1I
SG1I
Date: 19 June 1995
To:
From: Edwin C. May, Ph.D.
Re: "Tot)-ten' List
Cc:
I have been asked to find "the 10 primary studies or reports developed under the subject
program...that make the best case for establishing the validity of the paranormal
phenomena known as Remote Viewing." This memorandum is in response to that request.
Background
Although the request seems straight forward at the outset, to establish the existence of
Remote Viewing on the basis of a subset of the total data set does not conform to the
accepted practices for met-analysis as set forth in Rosenthal (1991) and Hedges and Olkin
(1985). Besides the well-known file drawer problem, an additional problem arises because
Remote Viewing (i.e., we now refer to this class of phenomena a Anomalous Cognition-
AC*) data fall distinctly into three classes each of which might be examined separately.
Those circumstances in which:
(1) Targets can be categorized as 1-in-N. That is, experiments in which the receiver is
completely knowledgeable of all N possibilities and is constrained to respond within
the set. This is called forced-choice in the literature and examples include Zeener
card guessing (N=5) and binary guessing (N=2).
(2) Targets are unrestricted with regard to content. These experiments are called free-
response in the literature, because receivers are generally not aware of the details of
the target pool content and are free to respond accordingly. The majority of the AC
has been of this type.
(3) Statistical analysis is not generally possible, but the circumstances and quality of the
data make compelling arguments in favor of an anomaly. Such examples cannot be
used as definitive proof; however, they may provide prima facie evidence.
Please see the Glossary at the end of this Memorandum for a definition of terms.
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The average effect size (i.e., a standardized measure of the magnitude of the effect-See
Rosenthal, 1991) for forced choice AC experiments is approximately one order of
magnitude smaller than for free-response AC experiments. Thus, it is likely that different
criteria might be set to establish the validity of these two different procedures.
Two common approaches have been used in psychology and parapsychology to research
behavioral phenomena. One emphasizes random selection of subjects, and the other
examines the phenomenon with specialized subjects. These approaches answer different
questions: How is the phenomenon distributed in the population? and What are the
properties and mechanisms of the phenomenon? In other reviews of AC, studies are
weighted in favor of the first approach (Radin and Nelson, 1991), however, our approach
is nearly exclusively oriented to working with a relatively stable set of special subjects.
These different approaches might also require different standards for the evaluation.
If part of the evaluation is oriented toward assessing whether AC can be used on problems
of National interest, then it is important to realize that solid evidence for AC is neither a
necessary or sufficient condition for utility. A near perfect example of AC, such as having
a receiver provide complete, detailed, and accurate information about a missing person-all
of which was known to others, does not aid in determining the location of the individual.
On the other hand, examples of AC that do not meet normal laboratory criteria for being
significant, might provide the critical missing piece of information to solve a major
problem. In our application work, we have seen both examples.
Suggested Studies
In this section, I present the best studies and provide an argument as to why I have
included each of them as part of this list.
SRI International (1973-1989)
Research Results (Statistical)
To avoid the potential file drawer problem, I suggest the following meta-analysis of all the
research that was conducted at SRI International between 1972 and 1988 as my first choice
for the review.
1.0 May, E. C., Utts, J. M., Trask, V. V, Luke, W. L. W., Frivold, T. J, and
Humphrey, B. S. (1989). Review of the Psychoenergetic Research Conducted at
SRI International (1973-1988). Final Report-Task 6.0.1, Project 1291. SRI
International, Menlo Park, CA.
This 18 man-mont h, client-directed study is a comprehensive review of the complete SRI
database for the studies of anomalous mental phenomena. The study conforms to the
standard practices of modern meta-analysis. The analysis of 966 anomalous cognition
trials (i.e., all to date) demonstrated an effect of 6.5a for a single trial effect size of
0.209?0.032. Many additional categories are also considered.
While this study was conducted by SRI personnel, it enjoyed significant government
oversight. Checks on the validity o f the analysis can be easily accomplished from within
the document set on hand.
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From this same time period I select the formal study from within:
2. May, E. C. and Trask, V. V. (1989). Forced-Choice Viewing. Final Report, Project
1291. SRI International, Menlo Park, CA.
Guessing binary target is one of the most difficult AC tasks. The formal portion of this
report describes a cross-country, 50 trial experiment that was monitored by two
government representatives. A 76% hitting rate was achieved. In spi to of the small n, I
have selected this study because of its careful protocol design and extreme methods to
eliminate the potential of non-AC leakage of information-a characteristic of the SRI
research.
Another example of successful AC and methodological care is our tachistoscope study. We
posited that the quality of AC would depend upon the intensity of the feedback at the end of
each trial. This precognitive model was not verified in the study although two of the four
receivers produced significant results and the study showed significant evidence for an
information transfer anomaly overall.
3. May, E. C., Lantz, N. D. and Piantineda, T. (1994). Feedback Considerations in
Anomalous Cognition Experiments. Journal of Parapsychology.
This experiment has been accepted for publication in the peer-reviewed technical journal,
Journal of Parapsychology. The reference to the annotated bibliography is 107a for the
primary reference and 207b, my submission for document number 3.
4. Hubbard, G. S., May, E. C., and Frivold, T. J. (1987). Possible Photon Production
During A Remote Viewing Task: A Replication Experiment. Final Report-Objective E,
Task 1, Project 1291. SRI International, Menlo Park, CA.
In this study, we replicated the AC portion of an earlier experiment conducted at SRI. Both
studies initiated an attempt to verify a Chinese claim that concomitant photons are emitted
from a target with successful AC. The latter claim was not substantiated, however, three of
four receivers produced independently significant AC results in six trials each. The overall
all result was significant at p = 0.005 by a binomial measure for an effect size of
0.262?0.204.
Research Results Conclusions
With the exception of the tachistoscope study, the remaining experiments were not included
in the meta-analysis in report 1 above because they were conducted later.
Application Examples
The following submissions to the list serve as examples of anomalous cognition in an
application setting. Although I realize that such examples cannot be used to prove the
existence of AC, because of the circumstances for the data collection, they serve as prima
facie evidence, nonetheless. Minimally, if the reviewers are not convinced by the statistical
evidence of an information transfer anomaly, then it seems reasonable to expect an
alternative explanation/hypothesis, which meet the usual scientific standards, for the
applications' apparent successes.
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5. Puthoff, H. E. and Targ, R. (1975). Perceptual Augmentation Techniques Part
Two: Research Report. Final Report, Document FF-78-45. Stanford Research
Institute, Menlo Park, CA. S( T. V) Cc (4 S ( I'16 p 2 / fir,, -c R s
I submit two examples described within this document: (1) the large gantry and (2) and the
West Virginia site by receiver S1. I suggest that the descriptions in this report and any
other supporting material on these examples that may exist be provided to the reviewers.
6. May, E. C. (1989). AN Application Oriented Remote Viewing Experiment. Final
Report, Project 2740. SRI International, Menlo Park, CA.
This was a tes t-bed trial to simulate an application and to determine the degree to which
specific elements in a technical setting can be sensed by AC. The report describes the
protocol for data collection and a post hoc fuzzy set analysis; however, I submit the
drawings and the corresponding target photographs on pages 11, 12, and 13 in the report
in conjunction with the protocols as part of the prima facie evidence. The complete
transcript of the session can be found at the end of the document.
Science Applications International Corporation (1991-1994)
To avoid the file drawer problem I propose that all reports that were generated during this
time frame, or their equivalent publications be submitted for the review. There are not that
many and a complete meta-analysis would be possible. The four final reports from among
this set are:
7. May, E. C., Luke, W. L. W., and James, C. L. (1994). Phenomenological
Research and Analysis. Final Report. Science Applications International
Corporation, Menlo Park, CA.
8. May, E. C. and Luke, W. L. W. (1993). Phenomenological Research and Analysis.
Final Report. Science Applications International Corporation, Menlo Park, CA.
9. May, E. C. and Luke, W. L. W. (1992). Phenomenological Research and Analysis.
Final Report. Science Applications International Corporation, Menlo Park, CA.
10. May, E. C. and Luke, W. L. W. (1991). Phenomenological Research and Analysis.
Final Report. Science Applications International Corporation, Menlo Park, CA
I call particular attention to the 1994 description of a two year AC study:
Lantz, N. D., Luke, W. L. W. and May, E. C. (1994). Target and sender
dependencies in the Anomalous Cognition Experiments. The Journal of
Parapsychology, Vol. 58. 285-302.
Conclusions-SAIC
From these reports, it is possible to conduct a meta-analysis, which avoids the file drawer
problem, of all the anomalous cognition studies conducted at SAIC.
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GLOSSARY
Not all the terms defined below are germane to this report, but they are included here for
completeness. In a typical anomalous mental phenomena (AMP) task, we define:
? Anomalous Cognition (ACC)-A form of information transfer in which all know sensorial
stimuli are absent. That is some individuals are able to gain access to information by an
as yet unknown process. This is also known as Remote Viewinsr (RV) and
Clairvoyance.
? Agent-An individual who attempts to influence a target system by mental means alone.
? Analyst-An individual who provides a quantitative measure of AC. This individual
usually is blind to experimental conditions and the intended target.
? Anomalous Perturbation (AP)-A form of interaction with matter in which all known
physical mechanisms are absent. That is, some individuals are able to influence matter
by an as yet unknown process. This is also known as Psychokinesis (PK).
? Beacon-An individual who, while receiving direct sensorial stimuli from an intended
target, acts as a focus of attention for the receiver in AC experiments.
? Comp tie Assisted Search (CAS)-The use of computer-generated options which are
linked to real-world objects in a Search task.
? Feedback-After a response has been secured, information about he intended target is
displayed to the receiver or agent.
? Monitor-An individual who monitors and AMP session to facilitate data collection.
? Noise-Incorrect elements in an AC response.
? Protocol -A template for conducting a structured data collection session.
? Receiver-An individual who attempts to perceive by AC and report information about a
sensorially isolated target. A Receiver is also known as a Subject or Percipient.
? Response-Material that is produced during an AC session.
? Search-The inverse of AC. That is, given a known target, determine its location. This
is also known as Dowsing,
? Sender-An individual who, while receiving direct sensorial stimuli from an intended
target, acts as a putative transmitter of that information to the receiver in AC experiments.
? Session -A time interval during which AMP data are collected.
? S_p=ialty-A given receiver's ability to be particularly successful with a given class of
targets (e. g., people as opposed to buildings).
? Target-An item that is the focus of an AMP task (e.g., person, place, thing, event).
? Target Designation-A method by which a specific target, against the backdrop of all
other possible targets, is identified to the receiver (e.g., geographical coordinates).
? Trial-The smallest unit of data to be analyzed.
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ax ransmitta over ee
To: I I- ORD
From: Edwin C. May, Science Applications International Corp.
Fax Phone Number: [phone]
Date: Tue, Jun 20, 1995 - 08:30
Transmitting (6) pages, including cover sheet.
If there Is difficulty with this transmission, please call: [phone]
Note:
the first version failed In FAX. This versions Is slightly different from the copy I sent
I added that we should supply ALL the SAIC-generated documents for the review.
ease call if you have questions. Thanks, Ed
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