BRIEFING BY BRIG GEN JOSEPH A. MCCHRISTIAN, AC OFS, J2, HQ MACV, 28 NOVEMBER 1965 - SAIGON

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP78S02149R000200100027-9
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RIFPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
23
Document Creation Date: 
December 12, 2016
Document Release Date: 
April 30, 2002
Sequence Number: 
27
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
November 28, 1965
Content Type: 
BRIEF
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PDF icon CIA-RDP78S02149R000200100027-9.pdf1.01 MB
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Approved For Release 2002/07/02 : CIA-RDP78SO2149R000200100027-9 SECRET BRIEFING BY BRIG GEN JOSEPH A. McCHRISTIAN, HQ MACV, ofS, J2, 28 NOVEMBER 1965. - SAIGON, MR. AMBASSADOR, SECRETARY McNAMARA, GENERAL WHEELER- I WILL PRESENT OUR ESTIMATE OF THE VC/PAVN BUILDUP AND THEN, BASED UPON' CAPABILITIES, FORECAST ENEMY STRENGTH AS OF 31 DECEMBER 1966. I WILL ALSO LIST PROBABLE ENEMY. COURSES OF ACTION AND VULNERABILITIES. THE OVERALL STRATEGIC PLAN OF THE DRV LAO DONG PARTY IS THE POLITICAL AND MILITARY CONQUEST OF THE RVN. THE FIRST PART OF THE PLAN, IN ESSENCE, CALLED FOR THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A FIRM POLITICAL AND MILITARY BASE. HAVING ESTABLISHED A SECURE BASE OF OPERATIONS AND FORCED THE RVN FORCES INTO A DEFENSIVE POSTURE, THE.COMMUNISTS WOULD THEN BE IN A POSITION TO MOVE.INTO THE FINAL PHASE, THE ANNIHILATION OF THE ENEMY. BY MID 1964 THE VC WERE WELL ON THEIR WAY TO ACCOMPLISHING THESE GOALS. INFILTRATION ROUTES FROM THE DRV TO THE RVN VIA LAOS AND CAMBODIA HAD BEEN IMPROVED, SEA INFILTRATION WAS ALSO IN FULL SWING AND THEIR LOGISTICAL SYSTEM ANO BASE AREAS WERE WELL ESTABLISHED. *Army, JCS and DIA review(s) completed. SECRET J2/90/65 Approved For Release 2002/07/02: CIA-RDP78SO2149RO 1 7-9?r,.'' Q ?~ # X917 Approved For Release 2002/07/02 : CIA-RDP78SO2149R000200100027-9 SECRET A MAJOR CONSIDERATION IN THE COMMUNISTS PLAN IS THE ATTAINMENT OF "STRATEGIC MOBILITY" STRATEGIC MOBILITY IS THEIR ANSWER TO OUR TACTICAL MOBILITY. THEIR OBJECTIVE IS TO AMASS SUFFICIENT NUMBERS OF MANEUVER BATTALIONS TO BE CAPABLE OF POSING A SUFFICIENT THREAT IN WIDELY SEPARATED AREAS WHICH WILL NOT ONLY TIE DOWN LARGE NUMBERSOF ALLIED FORCES IN STATIC DEFENSIVE ROLES, BUT WILL ALSO ALLOW THEM TO DESTROY SELECTED TARGETS AT A TIME AND PLACE OF THEIR CHOOSING, IN ORDER TO ATTAIN THE FORCE STRUCTURE NECESSARY TO MAINTAIN "STRATEGIC MOBILITY" HANOI APPARENTLY DECIDED TO INTRODUCE REGULAR PAVN .TROOPS INTO THE RVN. INDICATIONS THEREOF CAN BE TRACED TO AS EARLY AS APRIL 1964 WHEN THE 325TH PAVN INFANTRY DIVISION BEGAN AN ACCELERATED TRAINING PROGRAM IN THE VICINITY OF DONG HOI.IN THE DRV. THE INFILTRATION OF PAVN REGIMENTS IN ORDER OF THEIR ARRIVAL IN SOUTH VIETNAM, IS SHOWN ON THIS VIEWGRAPH. (VUGRAPH NO. 1 ON) THE THREE REGIMENTS OF THE 325TH PAVN DIVISION ARRIVED AS FOLLOWS- THE 95TH REGIMENT IN DECEMBER 1964, THE 101ST IN FEBRUARY 1965 AND THE 18TH IN APRIL 1965. A NON-DIVISIONAL PAVN REGIMENT, THE 32ND, WHICH TRAINED AT SON TAY AND z Approved For Release 20 F78SO2149R000200100027-9 Approved For Release 2002/07/02 : CIA-RDP78SO2149R000200100027-9 SECItET XUAN MA.I, DRV, INFILTRATED INTO THE RVN SHORTLY AFTER THE 95TH, AN U'/I REGIMENT INFILTRATED INTO QU.IANG TRI IN J up.LY, WE HAVE NOT CONFIRMED THE EXACT TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE 42ND REGIMENT. THE 250TH REGIMENT TRAINED AT PHU BINH DISTRICT, THAI NGUYEN PROVINCE IN THE DRV AND WAS FORMED FROM INDIVIDUALS DRAFTED FROM HANOI AND THAI NGUYEN PROVINCE. DEPARTING NORTH VIETNAM IN LATE JUNE, THE 250TH ARRIVED IN SOUTH VIETNAM IN QUANG DUC PROVINCE IN MID SEPTEMBER. WE ALSO KNOW THAT THE 325TH DIVISION LEFT CADRES FOR THE RECONSTITUTION OF A SECOND 325TH DIVISION PRIOR TO ITS DEPARTURE FROM THE DRV IN LATE 1,964 EARLY 1965. PRISONERS CAPTURED EARLY IN THE PLEI ME BATTLE IDENTIFIED THEMSELVES AS MEMBERS OF THE NEW 325TH DIVISION. IN ADDITION, SEVERAL CAPTURED DOCUMENTS INDICATED THAT THE NEW 325TH DIVISION HAD, IN FACT, FORMED THREE MORE REGIMENTS. ONE OF THESE REGIMENT S, WHICH HAS BEEN CONFIRMED AS THE "SONG LAM" REGIMENT, DEPARTED THE DRY IN JULY AND ARRIVED IN THE RVN IN EARLY OCTOBER. THIS UNIT WAS GIVEN SEVEN DAYS TRAINING AND RESUPPLIED PRIOR TO ATTACKING PLEI ME CAMP. A DIET LONG CAPTIVE FROM TIE ??SONG LAM" REGIMENT STATED SEdRFT Approved For Release 2002/07/02 : CIA-RDP78SO2149R000200100027-9 Approved For Release 2002/07/02 : CIA-RDP78SO2149R000200100027-9 SECRIE"T THAT THE OTHER TWO REGIMENTS OF THE NEWLY REFORMED 325TH DIVISION WERE ALSO TO INFILTRATE INTO THE RVN. HOWEVER, THE TIME FRAME WAS NOT SPECIFIED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OTHER TWO REGIMENTS OF THE RECENTLY RECONSTITUTED 325TH DIVISION ARE EITHER INFILTRATING OR ARE IN THE LATE STAGES OF INFILTRATION PREPARATIONS. ONE OF THE PAVN UNITS WITH WHICH THE 1ST .AIR CAV DIV WAS IN CONTACT AT PLEI ME WAS THE 66TH REGIMENT OF THE 304TH PAVN INFANTRY DIVISION WHICH ARRIVED IN COUNTRY IN OCTOBER 1965, AS REPORTED BY MACV IN MARCH 1965, ELEMENTS OF THE 304TH DIVISION HAD BEEN PREPARING TO INFILTRATE INTO SOUTH VIETNAM OVER THE LAST YEAR. ELEMENTS OF THE 304TH DIVISION WERE ALSO REPORTED AS PARTICIPATING INTHE ATTACK ON THE ROYAL LAO ARMY (FAR) OFFICER IS SCHOOL AT DONG HENE LAOS, INMARCH OF THIS YEAR. PRISONERS TAKEN AFTER THIS THAT THEY WERE MEMBERS OF THE 9TH REGIMENT OF THE 304TH DIVISION WHO WERE ON THEIR WAY TO INFILTRATE INTO THE RVN, AND HAD BEEN DIVERTED IN ORDER TO ASSIST THE PATHET LAO IN THEIR ATTACK ON DONG HENE. THE CURRENT STATUS OF THE 9TH IS UNKNOWN. IT IS SIGNIFICANT THAT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE 4 Approved For Release 2 P78S02149R000200100027-9 Approved For Release 2002/07/02 : CIA-RDP78SO2149R000200100027-9 SECRET 66TH MAY HAVE BROUGHT THEIR 120MM MORTARS WITH THEM. IF TRUE, THEY WILL BE THE FIRST 120MM MORTARS INTRODUCED INTO RVN. A SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE INTRODUCTION OF REGULAR PAVN UNITS INTO THE RVN IS THE INCREASING RATE OF INFILTRATION. IN CONTRAST TO THE EARLY RATE OF 3 BATTALION EQUIVALENTS PER MONTH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF 1964 THERE IS GROWING EVIDENCE THAT THE DRV HAS SENT AS MANY AS 12 BATTALIONS. PER MONTH, FOR EXAMPLE, THE INFILTRATION OF THE U/I QUANG TRI, 250TH, THE "SONG LAM" AND 66TH PAVN REGIMENTS WHICH ALL LEFT THE DRV IN LATE JUNE AND EARLY JULY OF THIS YEAR. (VUGRAPH NO. 1 OFF). THIS ACCELERATED INFILTRATION RATE WAS PROBABLY DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS, THE PRIMARY ONE BEING THE DRV REVISION OF THEIR ESTIMATE OF THE FORCES NEEDED TO MAINTAIN "STRATEGIC MOBILITY! IN VIEW OF THE EXPECTED BUILDUP OF U. S. AND OTHER FREE WORLD FORCES. THE APPARENT NEED OF HANOI AND THE VIET LONG FOR A MILITARY AND PSYCHOLOGICAL VICTORY TO ILLUSTRATE THAT THE COMMUNISTS STILL RETAINED THE INITIATIVE AND TO BOOST HOMEFRONT MORALE COULD HAVE BEEN AMONG THE SEVERAL FACTORS, DURING THE TIME THAT PAVN' REGIMENTS WERE INTa ILTRATING, Approved For Release 2002/Q'aM7.IS02149R000200100027-9 Approved For Release 2002/07/02 : CIA-RDP78SO2149R000200100027-9 SECRET THE INFILTRATION OF NORTH VIETNAMESE CADRE PERSONNEL DESTINED FOR POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND MILITARY UNITS AND ORGANIZATIONS ALSO CONTINUED. AT THE SAME TIME NEW VC UNITS WERE BEING FORMED IN SOUTH VIETNAM. A COMPARISON OF VC/PAVN ORDER OF BATTLE INTELLIGENCE IS SHOWN HERE. (VUGRAPH NO, 2 ON) IN JULY 1964 OUR ORDER OF BATTLE INTELLIGENCE CARRIED A TOTAL OF 46 VC BATTALIONS; IN NOVEMBER 1965 WE HELD 83 VC BATTALIONS PLUS THE 27 INFILTRATED PAVN BATTALIONS FOR A TOTAL OF 11.0 (103 CONFIRMED, 4 PROBABLE AND 3 POSSIBLE BATTALIONS). (VUGRAPH NO. 2 OFF) NOW LET US EXAMINE ENEMY MANPOWER AND LOGISTICAL RESOURCES. (VUGRAPH NO. 3 ON) TRAINED MILITARY FORCES LOCATED IN THE DRAT INCLUDE: 265, 000 REGULAR ARMY, 27, 000 ARMED SECURITY FORCE, 200, 000 CLASS I MILITIA AND A POTENTIAL OF 1. 8 MILLION MILITIA. COMPOSITION OF THE REGULAR ARMY IS SHOWN BELOW. (PAUSE), WITHIN THIS FORCE STRUCTURE (FLIP ON). THERE ARE A TOTAL OF 38 INFANTRY REGIMENTS. THE CLASS I MILITIA PROVIDES A TRAINED POOL OF PERSONNEL FOR THE REGULAR ARMY AND PAVN IS CAPABLE OF MOBILIZING 475, 000 MEN BY M-DAY PLUS 180, (VUGRAPH NO. 3 OFF) Approved For Release 2002IS/EtS JMES02149ROO0200100027-9 Approved For Release 2002/07/02 : CIA-RDP78SO2149R000200100027-9 SECIR ET OF THE 38 PAVN INFANTRY REGIMENTS IN THE DRV DIA CON- SIDERS 14 TO CONSTITUTE THE STRATEGIC RESERVES, THIS LEAVES 24 REGIMENTS WHICH COULD BE USED TO CADRE AND TRAIN NEW 'UNITS (VUGRAPH NO, 4 ON) IF THE PAVN UTILIZE 1.1 OF THESE AS TRAINING REGIMENTS AND EACH TRAINS A NEW LIGHT INFANTRY REGIMENT EVERY 90 DAYS THEN THE DRV CAN TRAIN 36 NEW REGIMENTS BY THE END OF 1966, PROVIDING 9 OF THEIR CURRENT REGULAR REGIMENTS ARE READY TO INFILTRATE, OR HAVE ALREADY TRAINED NEW REGIMENTS, THE DRY CAN MAINTAIN AN INFILTRATION RATE OF 3 REGIMENTS PER MONTH AT LEAST THROUGH 1966. (VUGRAPH NO. 4 OFF) IN SOUTH VIETNAM THE VIET LONG CONTROL A MANPOWER POOL OF 526, 000 PHYSICALLY FIT MALES BETWEEN THE AGES OF 16 - 45. THEY ALSO HAVE A WELL ESTABLISHED GUERRILLA BASE AND TRAINING SYTEM. WE ESTIMATE THAT THEY CAN FORM TWO NEW BATTALIONS EACH MONTH AND CAN TRAIN AT LEAST 2,500 REPLACE- MENTS MONTHLY. BASED UPON A VC BATTALION STRENGTH OF 500 THESE TRAINEES WOULD EQUATE TO 5 BATTALIONS. Q VU'GRAPH NO. 5 ON) THIS VUGRAPH SHOWS THE PAVN/VC CAPABILITY TO INCREASE THEIR STRENGTH IN SOUTH VIETNAM. THIS IS EXPRESSED IN BATTALION EQUIVALENTS BECAUSE SOME TRAINEES WILL BE FORMED INTO NEW UNITS WHILE OTHERS WILL BE REPLACEMENTS. Approved For Release 2002/07/: CIA-RDP78SO2149R000200100027-9 SE )IFT Approved For Release 2002/07/02 CIA-RDP78SO2149R000200100027-9 SECRET THE PAVN CAN TRAIN AND INFILTRATE 9 BATTALION EQUIVALENTS PER MONTH AND THE VC SEVEN FOR A TOTAL~OF 16. (VUGRAPH NO. 5 OFF) LET US NOW DETERMINE HOW MANY OF THESE BATTALION EQUIVALENTS ARE REQUIRED TO REPLACE LOSSES. (VUGRAPH NO. 6 ON) THE BARS ON THIS VUGRAPH REPRESENT THE PAVN/VC AVERAGE QUARTERLY LOSSES. THESE LOSSES INCLUDE KILLED, CAPTURED, DESERTERS AND RALLIERS. THE PROJECTED LOSSES PER QUARTER IS A STRAIGHT LINE PROJECTION BASED UPON THE AVERAGE QUARTERLY INCREASE IN LOSSES. THIS AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 4.5 BATTALION EQUIVALENTS PER QUARTER. THE BATTALION EQUIVALENT LOSSES PER QUARTER ARE SHOWN ON THE TOP OF EACH BAR GRAPH. (FLIP ON) THIS .FLIP SHOWS THE BATTALION EQUIVALENT INPUTS EACH QUARTER BASED UPON THE 9 PAVN AND 7 VC INPUTS PER MONTH PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED OR 48 PER QUARTER. SUBTRACTING LOSSES FROM INPUTS WE OBTAIN THE NET GAIN PER QUARTER. BY THE LAST QUARTER OF 1966 LOSSES EQUAL INPUT. BY THAT TIME A. TOTAL GAIN OF 45 BATTALION EQUIVALENTS WILL HAVE BEEN ACHIEVED. ADDING THESE 45 TO THE CURRENT 110 WE CAN PROJECT A FORCE STRENGTH EQUIVALENT TO 155 BATTALIONS BY THE END OF 1966. (VUGRAPH NO, 6 OFF) 8 SOMETARET Approved For Release 2002/07/02 : CIA-RDP78SO2149R000200100027-9 Approved Eor Release 2002/07/02 : CIA-RDP78SO2149R000200100027-9 divem WE KNOW THAT PAVNiTVA"C HAVE EXTENSIVE STOCKPILES IN MANY BASE AND STORAGE AREAS THROUGHOUT THE RHOLUNTRY. (VUUGRAPH NO. ONE THIS VUGRAPH SHOWS MAJOR BASE AREAS AND THE GENERAL DRIFT OF INFILTRATION ROUTES, THE ENEMY HAS HAD SEVERAL YEARS IN WHICH TO STOCKPILE AND PREPARE THE BATTLEFIELD IN ACCORD- ANCE WITH ACCEPTED COMMUNIST THEORY. QVUGRAPH NO. 7 OFF) THE PAVN CAPACITY TO INCREASE THEIR CURRENT LOGISTICAL SUPPORT IN THE .RA'NIS CONSIDERABLE. WE HAVE JUST COMPLETED AN LOG STUDY OF THE LAOTIAN PANHANDLE (VUGRAPH NO. 8 ON) WE CON- CLUDE THAT WITH A MAJOR TRUCK EFFORT THE DRY HAS THE CAPA- BILITY OF MOVING 300 TONS PER DAY FROM THE DRY THROUGH LAOS INTO THE RYN DURING THE DRY WEATHER. THIS 300 TON CAPABILITY FALLS OFF TO 50 TONS PER DAY BY VARIOUS TRANSPORT MEANS DURL)NG THE NORMAL FIVE MONTH RAINY SEASON. THE .AVERAGE YEAR ROUND DAILY CAPACITY FIGURES our TO BE 195 TONS PER DAY. DRV? LOGISTICAL CAPABILITY THROUGH CAMBODIA IS .ALSO VERY SUBSTANTIAL. W-E ARE UNA LE TO DETERMINE THE AMOUNT THAT IS BEING INFILTRATED OR SMUGGLED INTO THE RBI N. HOWEVER, WE CON- SIDER 2.5 TONS PER DAY TO BE THE MINIMUM AMOUNT. BEST INFOR- MATION ON SEA INFILTRAflON IS AB O' T 14 TONS PER DAY. WE CONSIDER BOTH THE SEA AND CAMBODIA OFFER .A GREATER CAPABILITY BUT WE USE THE LOWER FIGU :. ES FOR THE WANT OF MORE ACCURATE Approved For Release 2002/07 C CJA- 1j8SO2l 49R0002001 00027-9 Approved For Release 2002/07/02 : CIA-RDP78SO2149R000200100027-9 SECRET FO MA IONS ALTOGETHER PAVN'S CAPABILITY TO SUPPORT THEIR FORCES IN THE RVN TOTALS Z34 TONS PER DAY. ('VUGRA.PH NO. 8 OFF) WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF ADDITIONAL PAYN TROOPS AND IM- PROVED LOGISTICAL SUPPORT, THE LEVEL OF COMBAT WILL IN- GREASE AND THE ENEMY LOX-37,13T. CAL REQUIREMENTS WILL INCREASE. WE ESTIMATE THAT :R:EQUIRE:D POUNDS PER MAN PER DAY WILL REACH A LEVEL OF 8.2 POUNDS IN THE NEAR FUTURE FOR PAVN TROOPS AND 306 .POUNDS FOR VIET CONG TROOPS. OUR ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A REDUCED VERSION ' OF A DIA, STUDY (VUG.R.APH NO. 9 ON)). THE DIA. STUDY GIVES 13.2 POUNDS FOR A PAVN SOLDIER IN LIGHT POMBAT IN THE RVN. WE HAVE REDUCED THAT AMOUNT IN THE FOLLOWING MANNER. ONE POUND FOR CLASS I BASED ON THE KNOWN PAVN/FTC; PLANNING FIGURE OF 2 POUNDS OF CLASS I PER. MAN. WE ELIMINATE CLASS III FOR. INFILTRATION AS WE HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR IT IN OUR LOG CAPACITIES. WE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF CLASS V FROM 5.5 POUNDS TO 3. 2 POUNDS. OUR REASON FOR THIS IS THAT WE CONSIDER THE LIGHT COMBAT :RATE TO BE HIGH. WE CON'SI-'/.,;:R, A RATE OF 1/5 OF THE FORCE TO BE ENGAGED IN COMBAT EVERY SEVENTH DAY AND EXPENDING 1/3 OF THEIR BASIC LOAD TO BE MORE ACCURATE. (VUGRAPH NO. 9 OFF). NOW LET 'S COMPUTE OUR 'TONNAGE REQrUIRE- MENTS. (VUGRAPH NO. 10 ON) AS WE HAVE SEEN, TOTAL LOG CAPACITY IS 2,34 TONS PER DAY. UNDER LIGHT COMBAT CONDITIONS PRESENT ENEMY FORCES WILL OUT 84 TONS PER DAY FROM OkJTSID.E THZ RVN OR FROM STOC1,p 'Sd For Release 20027/02 A-RDP78S02149R000200100027-9 SECRET Approved For Release 2002/07/0 1.7 M. It, 49R000200100027-9 WE COMPUTE THIS AS FOLLOWS- 27 PAVN BATTALIONS @ 1. 8bf, TONS PER DAY EQUALS 50.22 TONS. PER DAY. (CLASS I OF 2 POUNDS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM PAVN AND VC TOTALS BECAUSE OF ITS AVAILA- BILIT Y WITHIN THE RVN) 83. VIET GONG BATTALIONS AT .4 TONS PER DAY EQUAL 33.20 TONS FOR A TOTAL OF 83.42 OR 84 TONS REQUIRED DAILY. WE HAVE AN EXCESS OF 150 TONS TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL BATTALIONS. IF 150 IS DIVIDED BY 1. 86 TONS WE FIND THAT 80 ADDITIONAL BATTALIONS CAN BE SUPPORTED. WE USED THE FIGURE FOR THE PAVN BATTALION BECAUSE IT REQUIRES MORE LOGISTICAL SUPPORT THAN THE VC BATTALION, THIS IS NOT INTENDED TO INDI- GATE THE 80 ADDITIONAL BATTALIONS WILL ALL BE PAVN, CON- SEQUENNTLY, WITH A MAXIMUM DRV EFFORT EXISTING LINES OF COMMUNICATIONS CAN SUPPORT THE CURRENT 110 PAVN/VC BATTAL- IONS PLUS 80 .ADDITIONAL BATTALIONS FORA TOTAL OF 190 BATTALIONS. QVUGR APH 10 OFF) ENEMY STRATEGY TO ACHIEVE THEIR AIM Or, A UNIFIED VIETNAM 11,,'NDER HANOI IS BASED UPON THE COTO UCT OF A. LONG WAR DURING WHICH THEYWILL EXACT MAXIMUM ATTRITION ON ALLIED AND ESPECIALLY U. S. FORCES. THEY WILL AVOID COMBAT UNLESS THEY EXPECT VICTORY. THEY WILL ATTEMPT TO RETAIN A FORCE RATIO OF MANEUVER BATTALIONS IN THEIR FAVOR BY HOLDING ATTACKS AGAINST OUR BASES. DIVERSIONARY ATTACKS TO DISPERSE OUR. :FORCES AN'_D SIMULTANEOUS ATTACKS .AT WIDESPREAD LOCATIONS. THEY WILL TfREATEN AND A. 'TACK OUR BASE AREAS IN ORDER TO IMMOBILIZE THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF SECURITY FORCES AND TO Approved For Release 2002/07/02 : C jl -RDP78S02149R000200100027-9 SECRET Approved For Release 200210710 8 149R000200100027-9 DESTROY AIRCRAFT, EQUIP.IvI CND S ' PPL ES. THEY WILL MOB T ATTACKS DESIGNED TO BRING ABOUT THE COMMITMENT OF OUR GENERAL RESERVES. THEY WILL ATTACK ISOLATED FORCES IN ORDER TO INFLICT HEAVY LOSSES, THEY WILL CONTINUE ACTIONS TO ISOLATE AND DOMINATE THE HIGHLANDS IN ORDER TO SECURE THEIR BASE AREA AT THE TERMINUS OF THEIR LAOS INFILTRATION ROUTES. THEY WILL EXERT CONTINUOUS PRESSURE TO INTERDICT ROADS AND RAILROADS, TO TERRORIZE AREAS OF GOVERNMENT CONTROL AND TO WEAR DOWN OUR WILL TO RESIST. THEY WILL DEFEND THEIR MAJOR BASES BECAUSE THEIR PROTRACTED CONFLICT DEPENDS UPON THE STOCKPILING THEY HAVE BEEN DOING FOR YEARS. ALTHOUGH THE ENEMY' HAS GREAT CAPABILITIES HE ALSO HAS SIGNIFICANT VULNERABILITIES. HE MUST DEFEND HIS LOGISTIC BASE AREAS, AND HIS LONG LOGISTICAL LOC IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO INTERDICTION. HE IS ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO AIR AND ARTILLERY .ATTACK, SUSTAINED COMBAT OPERATIONS AND AGGRESSIVE PURSUIT. ADDITIONALLY, HE IS DEPENDENT UPON THE SUPPORT OF THE LOCAL POPULATION. IN SUMMARY, WE CONCLUDE THAT THE ENEMY HAS THE CAPABILITY TO INCREASE HIS STRENGTH TO 155 BATTALIONS BY THE END OF 1,966. FROM THAT DATE ON HIS LOSSES SHOULD EXCEED HIS INPUT. THIS CONCLUDES MY PORTION OF THE BRIEFING. I WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE J3, GENERAL DEPUY. 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