ESTIMATING CROP YIELDS THROUGH AN ANALYSIS OF ORBITAL RECONNAISSANCE PHOTOGRAPHY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: NGA Records (Formerly NIMA)
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78B04747A000400020009-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 9, 2001
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: March 24, 1966
• Content Type: REQ

s 21049/1
NprzciCC V~X Approved For Relea 1 RDP78130474 A000400020009-7
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24 March 1966
DESIGN OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATING CROP YIELDS THROUGH AN ANALYSIS OF ORBITAL RECONNAISSANCE
PHOTOGRAPHY.
1. INTRODUCTION. This research objective describes the requirements
for a study effort to determine the feasibility of developing photo
interpretation techniques and reference keys which would, ultimately,
enable a trained interpreter to estimate wheat crop yields in selected
areas of Russia and China through a study of aerial photography
acquired at regular intervals over the croplands during the growing
season. It would be desirable to make these crop yield estimates
during the growing season. Because this is, of necessity, a research
effort into a new area of photo interpretation the exact details of
the proposed photo analysis program cannot be itemized very specifically
in this design objective.
2. BACKGROUND.
a. One of the major intelligence problems relating to agriculture
in Communist countries is an evaluation of crop prospects and annual
production achievements for the major crops. At the present time
estimates are based primarily on such sources as current weather
information, press reports for Communist countries, and, where possible,
observations by US Embassy officials and other travelers. In the
case of the USSR, much that appears in print about crop yields is
exaggerated, while for Communist China very little information is
reported in the news, or is available from other sources.
b. The crop yields of the USSR and Communist China not only play
a large part in their internal economies, but determine to a large
degree how much assistance these countries can give to the smaller
nations which they are attempting to convert to Communism. It is
believed, therefore, that for a number of years it will be important
to know how successful these (and possibly other) countries are in
meeting their goals in agriculture.
c. Preliminary conversations with experts in the field of aerial
photography suggest that, given adequate R&D support, there may be
some potential for developing new photographic techniques that would
be useful in estimating crop types, acreages, and yields. A feasi-
bility study is required to determine if this type of information
can ultimately be. obtained-from..KH photography.
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3. REQUIF ENT S .
a. Results Expected From the Study Effort.
It is anticipated that this study will lead to the development
of interpretive techniques whereby photo interpreters can, through an
analysis of photographic imagery acquired at regular intervals during
the growing season, estimate wheat crop yields. Any such techniques
developed must be applicable to the task of analyzing imagery comparable
to that obtained from orbital photo reconnaissance systems even
though the study effort itself need not utilize such imagery. The
crop yield estimating techniques must be accurate within certain
ranges of error and the results obtained must be verifiable.
The permissible range of error in the yield estimate will depend
to a considerable extent on the time that the estimate is made. For
example, in the case of winter wheat which is seeded in the fall and
harvested the following summer, it would be useful to have an estimate
early in the spring to give some measure as to how well the wheat
survived the winter -- i.e., percentage of wintrkill. At this stage
even a qualitative estimate would be useful -- i.e., the stand is
good or, alternatively, the stand has been reduced by 30% due to
winterkill. In view of the fact that crop prospects must be reported
throughout the growing season, crop estimates at various stages of
growth during the spring and summer would be useful. An estimate at
the critical "heading" period, for example, would be extremely useful.
The permissible range of error in the yield estimate at this date,
of course, would be somewhat greater than an estimate of the crop made
just prior to harvest. A desirable goal would be a range of error of,
+5% for an estimate at harvest time and, +15% for an estimate at the
'heading" stage. In the initial stages of introducing a new method,
a greater range of error would be quite acceptable and would be useful
in checking and supplementing other methods of yield estimation.
b. Techniques by Which Desired Results Will Be Obtained.
The details of the proposed feasibility study effort are being
left open intentionally. The Government is looking for creative ideas
from responding contractors in this matter.
25X1A
d. Planned Length of Study Effort.
The Government assumes that this study effort could be carried
out within a 9- to 12-month time period.
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contractors with personnel and facilities cleared
for SECURITY. Only proposals in response to this Design
for TKEI will be asked to submit pned to this study effort esearche Objective. The yyfamiliarrwith thers
quality and nature of the
should be thoroughly by orbiting or very high altitude vehicles.
imagery acquired currently Y though the bulk of the study might This stipulation is made even thwhich would be a simulation
carried out using unclassified photography
of operational imagery.
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